Leakage Forensic Analysis for Water Distribution Systems: A Fuzzy-Based Methodology

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Presentation Outline
General Objectives Leakage Overview Tools and Techniques Framework 1: Evaluating Leakage Potential Case study 1: Leakage Potential Framework 2: Leakage Detection and Diagnosis Case Study 2: Leakage Detection and Diagnosis Conclusions

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General: Typical Water Distribution System

Haestad et al. 2003 University of British Columbia | Okanagan

Objective of WDS

Continuity

Water
Quantity

Quality
4

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University of British Columbia | Okanagan

Leakage Overview
What is leakage?
Unintentional or accidental loss of water from WDS Constitutes a major portion of non-revenue water (NRW) An important component of standard water balance

What is leakage potential? Likelihood of leakage occurrence An effective 100% LP of a WDS means that the production volume and the LP are same in that WDS.
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Burst

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Burst

Photo: Courtesy R Liemberger

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Background leakage

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Leakage

Background leakage

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Non-revenue Water around the Globe

Continent Africa (%) of Production Volume 39 Continent Latin America and Caribbean (%) of Production Volume 42

Asia
City Bangkok

42
(%) of Production Volume 38

North America
City Kuala Lumpur

15
(%) of Production Volume 45

Colombo
Delhi Dhaka

56
54 40

Manila
Philadelphia (real Loss) Phnom Penh

63
26 22

Ho Chi Minh
Hong Kong Jakarta

39
26 51

Seoul
Shanghai Tashkent

26
18 28

Karachi
Kathmandu

30
38

Ulaanbaatar
Makkah (real Loss)

38
32
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Non-revenue Water= Leakage loss + management loss University of British Columbia | Okanagan

Implication of Leakage
Financial losses Consumer problems Intrusion of contaminants and health risks Damage to infrastructures Increased loading on sewers

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Importance of Quick Detection

75 Flow (m3/d)

1.1days
A - awareness A L R

Mains Burst: 80 m3

25

L - location
R - repair
Time (days)

75 Flow (m3/d) 25

Connection Burst: 400 m3 16 days

A L R
Time (days)

75 Flow (m3/d) 25

Property Burst: 1150 m3 46 days

R
Time (days)

Lambert , 1994

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Objectives
To evaluate leakage potential (LP) in WDS

To detect and diagnose leakage in WDS

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Tools and Techniques

EPANET programmers toolkits- USEPA developed codes for WDS hydraulic and quality simulation Fuzzy Set Theory

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Fuzzy Set Theory

Linguistic variables are used to represent qualities spanning a particular spectrum Temperature : {Freezing, Cool, Warm, Hot} It is 30% Cool and 70% Warm
Freezing Cool Warm Hot

0.7

0.3
0 10 30 50 70 90 110 Temp. (F)
2/9/2004

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Framework 1: Evaluating Leakage Potential Two parts Part1: Rule-based fuzzy inference modeling Part 2: Pressure adjusted leakage potential

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Generation 4

Generation 3 Generation 1

Generation 2

Hierarchical Leakage Potential Model

X1,14
Loading

X2,14
Traffic Flow Traffic Impact, X1,13

X3,14
Cover Depth External, X1,12 Soil Type

X4,24 X5,24
Temperature Fluctuation GW Table Fluctuation Ground Condition Impact, X2,13

X6,21 X1,23 X2,23

Headloss System Pressure

Pressure, X2,12

X7,14
Pipe Material Pipe Attribute, X1,33

X8,14 X9,24 X10,24 X11,24 X12,34 X13,34 X14,34

Number of Joints Residential Comercial Industrial Number of Service Connections Number of Water Meters

Pipe Diameter

Leakage Potential in Pipe

Joints, Meters, SCs, X2,33

Physical, X3,12

X1,01

Demand, X3,33

X1,43

Pipe Age Age, X4,12

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X2,43 X1,53 X14,24
Pipe Placement

Net. Instrument age

Child

Xi,jk

Net. Instru. Workmanship

Parent

Generation

18

X15,24 X16,24

Bedding and Backfill

Pipe Workmanship, X2,53 Compaction

Workmanship, X5,12

Pressure Adjustment
1 .4 0

es R a t io o f L e a k a g e R a t 1 /L o L

1 .2 0

L1/Lo = (P1/P0)N1
N1= Pressure Exponent or

1 .0 0

Emitter coefficient ( EPANET)

N 1 = 0 .5 0

0 .8 0

N 1 = 1 .0 0 N 1 = 1 .1 5

0 .6 0

N 1 = 1 .5 0 N 1 = 2 .5 0

0 .4 0

0 .2 0

0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 0 0 .2 0 0 .3 0 0 .4 0 0 .5 0 0 .6 0 0 .7 0 0 .8 0 0 .9 0 1 .0 0
o

1 .1 0

1 .2 0

R a t io o f P r e s s u r e s P 1 /P

(Farly and Trow, 2003 )

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Case Study 1: Evaluating Leakage Potential

Bangkok: Latitude: 130 45 N and Longitude: 1000 30 E University of British Columbia | Okanagan

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Study District Metering Area (DMA)

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DMA-0144, Bangkoknoi at a Glance

Data
Area coverage

Value
2.5 km2

Data
Average daily pressure (Sept. 2004)

Value
12.56 m

Population served
Total Pipe length No. of valves

3570 pers.
17.5 km 19

Non revenue water, May 2004

Maximum pipe diameter Pressure Exponent Major Pipe Materials

37.3%
300 mm 1.16 PVC and AC

No. of metered properties 820 (0)

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Model Results
70
65 Leakage potential (%) 60 55 50 45 40 0 10 20

Calculated leakage potential for DMA-0144 =48%

LP with varying operating system pressure

30

40 50 Pressure ( m) 80 75 70 65

60

70

80

90

LP with age for two different operating system pressures

Leakage potential (%)

System Pressure =45m

60 55 50 45 40
System Pressyre =12.56m

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80
23

90

Age (year)

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Framework 2: Leakage Detection and Diagnosis

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 A R, ND, RL, D, L, K, etc Model and Simulation Engine P, F, Q, A 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 (a)

(x)

Parameters A

Simulation

Y Output

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

A
Model and Simulation Engine H

Y'
Y

(x) 1.0 (b) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Y2 (x)

R, ND,RL, D, L, K, etc L Parameters

(x)

P, F,Q, A Y1

Simulation

Output

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Leakage Detection Framework (Contd)

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Y'
Y P, F,Q, A

P, F,Q, A Y2 WDS Failure

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

(a) (x) (b) (x)

(x)

Y1

Simulation output

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

Y1

(x)

1-r

Y' Y Y
O P, F O

Y2

T
m R=1-r P, F,Q, A

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 H

Y1
Monitored Data

Y2

Simulation output

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Leakage Detection Framework (Contd)

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Y1

(x)

1-r

Y' Y Y P, F
O

Y2

T m R=1-r

(b)

P, F,Q, A L H

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

Y1 Monitored Data

Y2 Simulation output

Index of Leakage Propensity (ILP) = (monitored flow flow most likely flow) / (extreme flow value flow most likely flow)

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(x)

50.00

Case Study 2: Leakage Detection and Diagnosis

100.00 LPS

75.00

7
1

9
1

12
Base Demand 25.00 11 50.00 75.00

13

1 1 5

Diameter 302.00 404.00

17

12
6

18
8

506.00 608.00

21

100.00 LPS

22
12 17 11

10

11

10

mm Day 1, 10:00 AM

16
Diameter 302.00 404.00 506.00

26

27
17

12

13

14

15

16

30

31

11

17

12

18

13

19 24

14

20

15

21 16

22 17

23 18 28

25 19 29 34 20

26

27 32

21 608.00 35 No. of Pipes: 40 2122 Number ofmm1, 10:00 AM 27 26 Nodes: 16 Day Total Pipe Length: 19.5 km 30 Diameter: 200-700 mm
21 35

30

31

33 23 22 36 38 26 40 24 37 39 27 25

21

35

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Leakage Data Preparation

Adding leakage demand at node 20 (Emitter coefficient: 1.5) Simulating WDS with leakage demand
1 1 5 6 7 3 2 4 3 5 4 2

10

11

10

12

13

14

15

16

11

17

12

18

13

19 24

14

20

15

21 16
Day 1, 10:00 AM

22 17

23 18 28

25 19 29 34 20

26

27 32

30

31

33 23 22 36 38 26 40 24 37 39 27 25

21

35

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Index of Leakage Propensity

Index of Leakage Propensity (ILP)

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Most Probable Leakage Node Identification

Time Leaky node no. in order (hr) (1) (2) (3) (4) Leaky pipe no. in order (1) (2) (3) (4)

20

25
1 1

15
3

19
2 4 3

29
5

25
4

34
2

37

10

11

10

12

13

14

15

16

11

17

12

18

13

19 24

14

20

15

21 16
Day 1, 10:00 AM

22 17

23 18 28

25 19 29 34 20

26

27 32

30

31

33 23 22 36 38 26 40 24 37 39 27 25

21

35

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Conclusions
A novel methodology has been developed for evaluating leakage potential in the distribution system A novel methodology has been developed for leakage detection and diagnosis Model will help utility managers for a ALC policy, rehabilitation policy and consequently better WDS management practices

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Acknowledgements
Financial Support: Data: Images (some): NSERCSPG Project ATACO ( Bangkok) Ltd and MWA , Bangkok WRP (Pty) Ltd , South Africa

21:06:36

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Thanks for your attention

Q & A?

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