Edward Nash (646) 562-1385 edward.nash@cowen.com Yun Zhong, Ph.D. (646) 562-1387 yun.zhong@cowen.com
CHEMOSTAT data is strong for both metastatic ocular and cutaneous melanoma. However, as 90% of the trial patient base consists of those with metastatic ocular melanoma and as newly approved treatments for cutaneous melanoma are now available, the company is planning for the approval of CHEMOSTAT by focusing on unresectable metastatic ocular melanoma of the liver as the sole initial indication. Physicians will decide based on data, not necessarily on label. Delcath's management is confident that the strong data for cutaneous melanoma will be albe to convince physicians of the efficacy of CHEMOSTAT for metastatic cutaneous melanoma. Delcath will pursue label expansion for CHEMOSTAT as early as 2H13 for HCC and neuroendocrine tumor (NET). CHEMOSTAT in Europe well on track. Physicians in Europe continue to treat patients with liver dominant metastases from a variety of tumors and there are now seven centers trained to use CHEMOSTAT. A strong financial position will carry the company through and well beyond upcoming PDUFA date. Recently announced CEFF of up to $35MM combined with $21.5MM remaining from the ATM and $20MM in cash as of 9/12 brings the total to nearly $80MM. It will be sufficient to carry the company through the upcoming milestones.
DCTH (12/07) Mkt cap Dil shares out Avg daily vol 52-wk range Dividend Dividend yield BV/sh Net cash/sh Debt/cap ROA (LTM) 5-yr fwd EPS growth (Norm)
Revenue $MM
2013E Prior Current 0.8 1.2 1.5 4.6 3.0 8.1 6.5 11.9x
EPS* $
S&P 500
1418.1
FY 2011 2012E Dec Actual Prior Current Q1 (0.04) (0.31)A Q2 (0.13) (0.26)A Q3 (0.18) (0.18)A Q4 (0.32) (0.19) 0.68 (0.91) Year CY P/E * Excludes one-time items
2013E Prior Current (0.20) (0.20) (0.23) (0.20) (0.22) (0.83) (0.85)
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Delcath Systems
Lack Of A Specific Labeled Indication Wont Deter The Docs The managements decision to change the labeled indication comes after a meeting with the FDA and is based on the ocular melanoma predominant patient base in the Phase III trial (90%) as well as the availability of newly approved treatments for metastatic cutaneous melanomas. However, when it comes to terminal conditions such as unresectable metastatic cutaneous melanomas to the liver, management is confident that the physicians will choose a treatment based on data and experience and not just on the label. We believe the lack of a specific labeled indication for unresectable metastatic cutaneous melanoma to the liver wont deter clinicians from using CHEMOSTAT off-label. Management is confident that CHEMOSTAT will be approved with a newly focused indication on metastatic ocular melanoma. Once approved, management plans to aggressively pursue a broader indication for CHEMOSTAT by focusing initially on HCC and NET. Both HCC and NET represent unmet medical needs with significant commercial opportunities. The estimated ocular melanoma patient population suitable for CHEMOSTAT is estimated to be approximately 1,700 and these patients will require an average of 2.5 procedures for treatment. This figure however, represents only a fraction of the CHEMOSTAT procedures being carried out currently in Europe. CHEMOSTAT Well On Track In Europe With CHEMOSTAT procedure performed in Germany recently, there are now seven centers approved in Europe to use CHEMOSTAT. CHEMOSTAT is approved for a wide range of metastatic cancers to the liver. Additional centers are expected to come online in the next few weeks driven by a variety of cancers endogenous or metastatic to the liver. The disease is the same whether they occur in Europe or in the U.S. and we believe that as in Europe, there will be meaningful off-label uptake of CHEMOSTAT for indications such as metastatic cutaneous melanomas to the liver in addition to the labeled indication of ocular melanomas in the U.S.
Delcath Systems
Delcath Systems
Positives
1. Orphaned all the way. Delcath has been granted Orphan Drug Status by the FDA for four oncology indications for the CHEMOSAT system. We believe Orphan Drug Status builds a natural barrier to entry for the competition and also ensures strong revenue flow and the ability to focus on market penetration in the early years, which is key to overall adoption. 2. Technology. Delcath has developed a technology that delivers hope to a group of oncology patients that would otherwise have few effective treatment options. We believe this translates into fast adoption rates for the companys technology. Given that incidence is approximately equal to prevalence in liver cancer, any options are welcomed and PHP offers one such effective option. 3. Multiple cancers affecting the liver. Delcaths CHEMOSAT delivery system is applicable to multiple metastatic cancers that affect the liver. This gives the company multiple shots on goal to expand its technology and grow revenue by focusing on the oncology community. 4. Valuation. Given the recent EU approval of Delcaths CHEMOSAT system and what we believe will be a positive outcome from the U.S. re-submission, we believe Delcaths current share price does not reflect these important milestones, which provides a good buying opportunity for investors
Negatives
1. Clinical trial risk. Delcaths future profitability depends on the timely and successful completion of clinical trials in the subsequent oncology indications. If they were to fail, our estimates would be negatively impacted. 2. Sales force infrastructure. Delcath looks to market its system in both the U.S. and EU without a partner. Setting up a sales force can be an onerous task both logistically and financially. Delcath has not had a sales force to manage previously and this could create an undue burden on internal capabilities. 3. Regulatory approval. As with all other drugs/devices in development in the U.S., Delcaths CHEMOSAT system is subject to FDA scrutiny. The company has already received an RTF letter from the FDA and there is no guarantee that the recent successful re-submission will lead to an approval. 4. It takes money to make money. Like most emerging biotech companies, Delcath is not cash flow positive and continues to burn cash to develop its pipeline. If it were unable to raise additional funds to finance this development, it would have a detrimental impact on the companys share price
Delcath Systems
Addendum
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Ticker DCTH Company Name Delcath Systems
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Delcath Systems
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Delcath Systems