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Electronic Companion-Short-term trac state prediction based on temporal-spatial correlation by T.L. Pan, A. Sumalee and R.X.

Zhong
T. L. Pana , A. Sumaleea , R. X. Zhongb,a
b a Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China. Research Center of Intelligent Transportation Systems, School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.

1. Spatial-temporal correlation phenomena and measurement: data preparation Spatial-temporal correlations can be utilized to predict short-term trac state. Rather than introducing the mathematical denitions of these correlations, we would like to give an intuitive example by analyzing the detected trac ow data for this freeway segment to support this empirical study. Figures 1-4 depict the temporal and spatial correlated trac ow phenomena via the historical trac data of the freeway segment, e.g. the density and inow proles detected at locations A, B and C on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of March and April 2008 and 2009. Figure 1(a) shows the temporal similarity (or correlation) of the ow prole detected at location A for the three weekdays from 5:00 to 6:00 am with a detection frequency (i.e. resolution, the sample time interval) of 5 minutes. It is observed that these ow proles are positively correlated among adjacent time steps, which imply that the higher value a certain ow prole at a certain time step, the ow prole intends to have a larger value in the near future. Temporal covariance and correlation coecient of q(k) between two adjacent time steps k and k-z are dened as: N (qi (k) q(k)) (qi (k z) q(k z)) (q(k), q(k z)) = i=1 Covtm (1) N1 Covtm (q(k), q(k z)) , z = 1, 2 , le , le k 1 tm (q(k), q(k z)) = (2) sq(k) sq(kz) where qi (k) is the value of the detected ow during interval k on the ith day, z is a positive integer less than or equal to l s which is a predened bound (also an integer) for the calculation, and sq(k) denotes the standard deviation of the detected ow q(k) for the N sample days. Figure 1(b) presents the correlation coecient tm of ow proles detected at location A with three dierent values of z (e.g. distances of 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 30 minutes) from 4:00 am to 12:00 am over N=54 days. The result illustrates that the temporal correlations of the ow proles will generally decrease as z increases, which can be interpreted as the ow pattern of a given time is more similar to a neighboring ow pattern than a distant one in temporal domain, e.g. tm (q(5 : 30), q(5 : 25)) > tm (q(5 : 30), q(5 : 00)) > tm (q(5 : 30), q(4 : 35)). Temporal correlation of the parameters of a fundamental diagram (or supply functions) for a given location also can be analyzed similarly: )( ) N ( ( ) i=1 i (k p ) (k p ) i (k p l p ) (k p l p ) Covtm (k p ), (k p l p ) = (3) N1
Email addresses: glorious9009@gmail.com (T. L. Pan), ceasumal@polyu.edu.hk (A. Sumalee), zhrenxin@mail.sysu.edu.cn (R. X. Zhong) Preprint submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems February 1, 2013

(a) Historical segment inflow profiles 8000 Flow (vehicle/hour) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 5:00 1 March 4,2008 March 12,2008 March 25,2008 Time (clock) (b) Temporal correlation coefficient of inflow profiles 6:00

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( ) Covtm ((k p ), (k p l p )) tm (k p ), (k p l p ) = , l p = 1, 2 , l p, , l p, < k p s(k p ) s(k p l p )

(4)

where i (k p ) is a certain parameter calibrated with data detected during the time period k p (e.g. half an hour) ( ) on the ith day. (k p ) is the mean of k p , and s (k p ) is the corresponding standard deviation over the N days. As shown in Figure 2, temporal correlations of free-ow speed v f during the non-rush hours are much more evident than the correlations of congestion wave speed wc during the rush hours. Compared with the correlation analysis of detected ow patterns, the supply functions are more complicated because the ow-density relationship might not constitute a complete triangular fundamental diagram for particular time periods, e.g. wc cannot be observed during 4:00-6:00 am while v f cannot be evaluated during rush hours 7:00-9:00 am. This is reected in the gure as zero entries. Because the temporal correlation coecients of Qm , c and J are very small, the results are omitted for brevity. Figure 3 (upper side) illustrates the spatial correlated phenomenon of the free-ow and congestion wave speeds calibrated at three adjacent sites based on the ow-density data collected. In this example, the freeow speeds are found to be positively correlated in spatial domain during the 4:00-6:00 am. To interpret this positive correlation, we depicted trac ow-density data during 4:00-4:30 am for two days (April 24, 2008 and April 21, 2009) under dierent weather conditions with the corresponding free-ow speeds calibrated in Figure 3 (lower side). The positive correlation implies that if the free-ow speed at site A (S. Myrtle) increase/decrease, then the free-ow speed at site B (W. Huntington Dr) and site C (N. Santa Anita) would increase/decrease accordingly (as illustrated by Figure 3). The spatial covariance and correlation coecient of the free-ow speeds during time interval k p are thus dened: )( ) N ( i=1 m,i (k p ) m (k p ) n,i (k p ) n (k p ) Covsp (m (k p ), n (k p )) = (5) N1 2

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Figure 2: Temporal correlation coecients of the supply functions

Spatial correlation coefficient of free flow speed vf Spatial correlation coefficient of congestion wave speed wc Location A and B Location A and C Location B and C

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Figure 3: Spatial correlated phenomenon of supply functions

sp (m (k p ), n (k p )) =

Covsp (m (k p ), n (k p )) sm (k p ) sn (k p )

(6)

where the notations in (5) and (6) are similar with the ones in (3) and (4) but for the dierentiation of m (k p ) and n (k p ) denoted by m and n which represent the adjacent locations. Figure 4 presents the spatial 3

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Figure 4: Spatial correlated phenomenon of trac densities

correlation of densities: N ( )( ) i=1 m,i (k) m (k) n,i (k) n (k) Covsp (m (k), n (k)) = N1 sp (m (k), n (k)) = Covsp (m (k), n (k)) sm (k) sn (k) (7)

(8)

m,i (k) is the trac density detected at location m during time interval k on the ith day, m (k) is the mean density over the N days, and sm (k) is the corresponding standard deviation.