EXAM ONE STUDY GUIDE

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EXTRA PRACTICE

(Solutions to Parts D, E, F, G, and H are posted on Moodle.) A. Have a working knowledge of the following terms (be able to define, explain, and apply them): argument strong inductive argument conclusion weak inductive argument premise confirming instance deductive argument Ockhams Razor inductive argument B. Be able to explain and apply the four stages of the Scientific Method as we described it in class. When given an example of a problem, be able to formulate hypotheses, deduce the implications of the hypotheses, and develop ways of testing the hypotheses. If given an example of the application of the method, identify each step in the example. C. Be able to state, explain, and explain the importance of the 4 criteria we discussed in class that are used to evaluate hypotheses. Given a hypothesis (or set of hypotheses) be able to evaluate it (or them) according to the 4 criteria that we discussed in class. D. For each of the following arguments, identify the premises and conclusion. Give the premises in an enumerated list, draw a line, and then write the conclusion. 1) Im perfect, because my mommy says so! 2) Mars is similar to the earth in that both are planets that orbit the sun. Since the earth is inhabited by living things, Mars must also be inhabited by living things. 3) Sixty percent of the students at Seattle Pacific University are female. Pat is 60 percent female, because she is a student at Seattle Pacific University. 4) Necessarily, Jason is un-American. He is an atheist. Atheists find freedom offensive. Communists are un-American, since communists find freedom offensive. 5) Nobody outsmarts Sherlock Holmes. Not even Professor Moriarty could outsmart him, and no one is smarter than Moriarty. 6) The prohibition of so-called hard drugs such as cocaine and heroin is similar to the prohibition of alcohol. The prohibition of alcohol was well intentioned and based on legitimate concerns about the dangers of alcohol consumption. The prohibition of alcohol also led to a highly profitable black market ruled by organized crime and marked by violence. 1

Now, we can all agree that the prohibition of alcohol was, in the last analysis, a mistake. Therefore, the prohibition of hard drugs is also a mistakehard drugs should be legalized. 7) Marijuana is as much a gift from God as lettuce. Therefore, since it is not wrong to enjoy lettuce, it is not wrong to enjoy marijuana. E. For each situation given, invent at least three hypotheses aimed at explaining what went wrong or at solving the problem. Then, for each hypothesis, describe one or more experiments or inquiries that could confirm or disconfirm the hypothesis. 1) Someone you have been dating has a birthday coming up, so you call a florist and order flowers for the occasion. Two days later the person is cold and distant. 2) After mailing your paycheck to the bank, you write a check to pay your rent. The rent check bounces. 3) On a rainy evening you return to your ground-floor apartment and discover that you have been burglarized. You cant believe it, because you are certain you locked the door when you went out. You share the apartment with a roommate. 4) You are a manager of a department store, and, although business has been brisk lately, your chief accountant informs you that the store is losing money. 5) After settling in a new location you buy some seeds for a flower garden. When the flowers come up, they are stunted and of poor quality. F. Consider the following arguments. In each of them, identify the hypothesis (or hypotheses) and evaluate them according to the four criteria we discussed in class. Is the argument weak or strong? If it is weak, suggest a rival hypothesis that is better recommended by the criteria we discussed in class. Finally, suggest a way to test your new hypothesis by deducing an implication from it and finding a way to confirm or falsify the implication. 1) Frederick has been having trouble with his watch. It keeps losing time. He had the battery replaced, but that didnt help. So, Frederick hypothesized that an invisible demon had possessed his watch, slowing down the mechanism. He took the watch to a priest for an exorcism, but that didnt help either. Frederick concluded that the demon must be the type of demon that cannot be exorcised. 2) A detective is trying to explain two murders that are remarkably similar in detail yet happened at the same time in very different locations--one in Florida and one in Alaska. The detective hypothesizes that the murderer has somehow learned to travel faster than the speed of light. 3) A certain biology professor noted a correlation between increased activity among bees and the beginning of spring. He hypothesized that as bees flap their wings, their body

heat increases, which warms the air around them, thus bringing about the changes in seasons from winter to spring. 4) Jennifer has been having trouble with her computer. For example, occasionally a few letters in a document get misplaced (without any action on her part). In an effort to account for these glitches, Jennifer hypothesizes that the computer has developed free will and is now occasionally making its own choices. G. Suppose you are a detective trying to solve a burglary. The specific evidence under consideration is this: Ms. Vogels TV is missing. Its a small TV set easily carried by one person. McGraw was seen lurking about Vogels house while she was on vacation, and McGraws fingerprints are on the table where Vogel kept her TV. Furthermore, as a detective, you happen to have some relevant background information: McGraw and Kingston both have a record or petty theft, and both live within easy walking distance of Vogels house. Given the evidence and the background information that has been reliably established in the past, which of these hypotheses is preferable and why? Your answer should reference the four criteria discussed in class and each hypothesis should be discussed in terms of them. H1: McGraw stole the TV. H2: Kingston stole the TV. H3: Spies from a foreign country stole the TV, and they framed McGraw (forcing him to walk around Vogels house while she was on vacation and forcing him to touch her TV table). H4: McGraw and Kingston both stole the TV. H5: Ms. Vogel is faking the theft in order to collect money from her renters insurance policy. H. For each of the following passages, answer the following questions. What data are to be explained? What hypotheses are proposed to explain them? How do the hypotheses stand up under scrutiny from the 4 criteria we discussed in class (be specific and explain and justify your answer)? 1) Boy babies tend to be about 100 grams heavier on average than girl babies, but it has never been explained, until recently, why that is so. Investigators were unsure whether the increased weight was to be explained by the fact that mothers of boys took in more energy, or because (when the fetus was male) those mothers used the energy taken in more efficiently. Dr. Rulla M. Tamimi, of the Harvard School of Public Health, sought to resolve this uncertainty by measuring the intake of calories. During the second trimester of their pregnancy, 244 women in Boston were asked to record their dietary intake in full detail. The data collected were later correlated with the resultant births. 3

Women carrying boys, Dr. Tamimi found, took in (as carbohydrates, fats, or proteins) about 10 percent more calories than women carrying girls. It is intake, and not efficiency of use, that makes the difference. But what accounts for that difference of intake? Dr. Tamimi speculated that it may be triggered by some signal from the testosterone given off by the fetuses. 2) Humans, apes, and dolphins are highly social animals with large brains; they have been shown to be aware of themselves by recognizing themselves in a mirror. Most animals pay very little attention to their reflections in a mirror. Elephants are like humans in being large-brained and empathic, but they dont share a common ancestor with humans the way apes do. Might they also recognize an image of themselves? Yes, they do. Elephants at the Bronx Zoo, in New York City, inspected themselves with their trunks while staring at their reflections in a huge mirror. One of the elephants (but only one) completed the highest level of self-recognition, call the mark test. Researchers placed a white X above one eye of each elephant. After approaching the mirror, this elephant touched the mark with her trunk 12 times in 90 seconds--confirmation that she believed that what she saw in the mirror was indeed herself. 3) Swedish researchers, collaborating with colleagues in South Africa, found that dung beetles active during the day detect polarity patterns in sunlight and rely on those patterns to find their way out of great masses of elephant dung. Dr. Marie Dacke, of the University of Lund, noticed subsequently that on moonlit nights one beetle species worked (rolling dung) particularly late. Could they have been relying upon the polarization of moonlight? Researchers set up polarizing filters to shift the moonbeams--and sure enough, the African beetle, Scarabaeus zambesianus changed direction to compensate. When the polarization of the moonlight under the filter was rotated by 90 degrees, they found that beetles under that filter deviated from their course by almost exactly 90 degrees. This is the first proof, writes Dr. Dacke in her report in Nature of 3 July 2003, that any animal can use polarized moonlight for orientation.