P03 Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk
DHY01 0807
Copyright ESI International August 2007 All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of ESI International. ESI grants federal government users "Restricted Rights" (as the term is defined in FAR 52.227-14 and DFARS 252.227-7013). Use, reproduction, or disclosure of these materials is subject to the restrictions set forth in the MOBIS, FSS, or contract under which the materials were provided. All material from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) is reprinted with permission of the Project Management Institute, Four Campus Boulevard, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania 19073-3299, USA, a worldwide organization of advancing the state-of-the-art in project management. Phone: (610)356-4600, Fax: (610)356-4647. PMI did not participate in the development of this publication and has not reviewed the content for accuracy. PMI does not endorse or otherwise sponsor this publication and makes no warranty, guarantee, or representation, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or content. PMI does not have any financial interest in this publication and has not contributed any financial resources. The names of all companies and characters used in these materials are purely fictional. Any resemblance to any existing or no longer existing company or living or dead person is not intended, and is purely coincidental. PMI is a service and trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc., which is registered in the United States and other nations. PMBOK is a trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc., which is registered in the United States and other nations. PMP is a certification mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc., which is registered in the United States and other nations.
ESI International Arlington, VA USA
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Course Objectives
By the end of this course, you will be able to Identify risks using various methods Assess the potential impact of risk factors Prioritize risks to determine the most important Develop effective risk response strategies Control risk during project execution using proven tools and techniques Use a practical 8-step process to manage project risk Integrate risk management into the overall project management process
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What Is a Project?
[A] temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result* PMBOK Guide, p. 5
Program X
Project A Project B Project C
Ongoing Business Operation
Project D
Project E
Cancelled
Program Y
*Source: Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. 3d ed. Newtown Square, Pa.: Project Management Institute, 2004. PMBOK is a trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc., which is registered in the United States and other nations.
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Project Management
[T]he application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements [A]ccomplished through the application and integration of the project management processes of initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and controlling, and closing PMBOK Guide, p. 8 Sound project management helps ensure success.
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Project Life Cycle

Projects are usually divided into phases Collectively, these phases make up the project life cycle
I Initiation
P Planning
I Implementation
C Closeout
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Project Management Process Groups

The PMBOK Guides five project process groups: Initiating, Planning, Executing, Monitoring and Controlling, and Closing
Monitoring and Controlling Processes Planning Process
Project Process Groups
Initiating Processes
Closing Processes
Life Cycle
Executing Processes
Phase
Phase
Phase
Phase
Closing Processes
Closing Processes
Closing Processes
Closing Processes
Executing Processes
Executing Processes
Executing Processes
Executing Processes
Source: PMBOK Guide, p. 69

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The Right Start

Needs Goals and Outcomes Specific Objectives
Becoming more specific Functional Requirements
Technical Requirements
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Formulating Good Objectives

Objective An understanding between someone who needs something and someone who can provide it Exists at all levels (corporate, project, work team, specific task) Uses the SMART model S = Specific M = Measurable A = Agreed-upon R = Realistic T = Time-based
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Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

The WBS [Is a] deliverable-oriented hierarchical decomposition of the work to be executed by the project team to accomplish the project objectives and create the required deliverables [O]rganizes and defines the total scope of the project [Subdivides the project work into smaller, more manageable pieces of work, with] each descending level [of the WBS] represent[ing] an increasingly detailed definition of the project work PMBOK Guide, p. 379
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Organizing the WBS

Define the project Scope Tasks Work packages Technical baseline Organize the WBS to allow For realistic estimating Assignment to a single organizational unit or for exclusive responsibility Use tools consistent with your comfort level and project needs
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WBS Review
The WBS should Be consistent Be task oriented and start with a verb, or be deliverable oriented and start with a noun Be decomposed to your level of control Ensure that each work package accomplishes a discrete work element Make work packages SMART
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Key Definitions
Project risk An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on at least one project objective Risk management includes the processes concerned with conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, responses, and monitoring and control on a project Includes increas[ing] the probability and impact of positive events, and decreas[ing] the probability and impact of events adverse to the project
Source: PMBOK Guide, pp. 237238
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Dual Nature of Risk
Threat
Probability of occurrence Consequence of failure
Opportunity
Probability of success Benefit of success
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Uncertainty
UnknownUnknowns UnknownUnknowns KnownUnknowns KnownKnowns

Known risks: Risks that were identified by the project team Unknown risks: Risks that were not identified
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Elements of Risk
A definable event Probability of occurrence Impact (consequence) of occurrence
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Risk Is a Function of Its Elements

Expected value = (probability of occurrence) (impact of occurrence)
High
Risk from snow in Maine
Probability of Occurrence
Risk from snow in Georgia
Low Low High
Impact of Occurrence
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Benefits of Risk Management

Minimize management by crisis Encourage proactive management Minimize surprises and problems Gain competitive advantage Decrease overall probability of project variances Increase probability of project success Increase profitability Focus on building the right product the first time Prevent problems from occurring, or if they occur, from escalating
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Responsibilities in Risk Management

Project manager Initiate and lead the risk management process Provide direction to the project team on the risk management process and tools Project team Understand and follow the risk management process Execute risk management strategies Report status on the risk management process
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Risk ManagementA Full Project LifeCycle Responsibility

Project Life Cycle
Implement Initiate Plan Execute Control Closeout
Risk Planning Processes Preliminary project plan Final project plan Project Project replanning replanning
Risk assessment and response processes are performed At regular intervals throughout the project life cycle Every time a new baseline or plan is established At major milestones or decision check points Risk Monitoring and Control Processes Risk monitoring and control processes are performed Continuously throughout the project life cycle During project status and reporting updates
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Risk Management Process

Inputs
Requirements People Development process Management Schedule Budget Quality Assumptions Constraints Testing Expectations Deployment Security Training
Tools and Techniques
Outputs
Prioritized risks (Risk Listing) Risk response plan Project plan updates
Risk Management
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ESIs Risk Management Model

Risk Management Planning Document Risk Monitoring and Control* Identify Risk Management Planning*
Risk Identification*
Evaluate
Document and Communicate
Analyze Qualitative Risk Analysis* and Quantitative Risk Analysis* Prioritize
Execute
Plan *PMI Project Risk Management Processes

Risk Response Planning*
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Step 1: Risk Management Planning

Risk management planning is the Preliminary planning for addressing risk Initial development of a framework to be carried out during the project
Risk Management Planning Document Identify
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Risk Management Planning Outputs

Outputs include the following: Methodology Roles and responsibilities Budgeting Timing Risk categories Definitions of risk probability and impact Revised stakeholders tolerances Reporting formats Tracking
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Step 2: Identify Risks

Risk identification is A structured and consistent approach to the identification of potential risk events A clear and specific description of the risk event A comprehensive list of risk events
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Risk Identification
Inputs Work breakdown structure (WBS) Contractual requirements (statement of work) Cost and schedule estimates Staffing plan Lessons learned files Scope statement Product or deliverables description Assumptions and constraints
Tools Documentation reviews* Risk identification techniques Checklist, questionnaires, and templates Assumption analysis* Diagramming techniques*
*Source: PMBOK Guide, pp. 247248

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Risk Identification Guidelines

Ensure that risk events are specific and fully defined Use the WBS as a basis for risk identification Develop as comprehensive a list of risks as possible Perform risk identification tasks as a team or as groups of team members Focus on identifying all the risks; dont try to analyze at this point
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Outputs of Risk Identification

A list of categorized risk events A documented source for each risk Potential risk indicators (triggers)
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Exercise 1
Identify 20 Threats Associated with Your Project
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Step 3: Analyze Risks

Risk analysis is The systematic process of estimating probability of occurrence and magnitude of impact for each risk event from Step 2
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Risk Analysis
Inputs Categorized list of identified risks WBS Contractual requirements (statement of work) Cost and schedule estimates Lessons learned files Staffing plan Other project-related plans Rating system guidelines Tools Data-gathering and Representation Techniques Interviewing Probability distributions Expert judgment Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques Sensitivity analysis Expected monetary value analysis Decision tree analysis Modeling and simulation PERT
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Presenting Risk
Risk information is typically expressed in 1 of 3 forms: Qualitative: Categorizes the risk using a rating system of adjectives or colors to rank probability and/or impact Quantitative: Quantifies risk using a percentage to indicate probability of occurrence and a dollar value to indicate impact Descriptive: Uses text to explain the risk in some depth, including what might happen, why, and ideas for controlling it; used when neither qualitative or quantitative are available
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Comparison of Approaches
Qualitative Fast and easy to administer and understand Difficult to enforce uniformly across organization and projects Requires definitions, rules, standards, and processes Quantitative Preferred methodology, often mandated by management More time-consuming; requires estimation Misleading in that numbers may give appearance of precision and specificity, unless the precision of the estimate is given Difficult if team resists deriving the numbers Easier to forecast Able to use trends Substantially more valuable in developing risk response strategies and reserves Descriptive Difficult to quantify Usually based on experience Used when quantitative and/or qualitative are not readily apparent or available
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Notes
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Probability Analysis
Purpose To understand the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk event Sources of probability data Theoretical distributions Subjective judgment Simulations Historical data
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Impact Analysis
Purpose: Understand how the project is affected if a risk event occurs Project cost Project schedule Sources of impact data Historical data Estimates Expert judgment Simulations Impact assessment is basically an estimation process
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Project Cost Impacts

Each risk event must be analyzed to assess potential impacts to project costs resulting from such factors as Level of effort Labor rates Task duration Direct materials Equipment and tools
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Project Schedule Impacts

Each risk event must be analyzed to assess potential impacts to the project schedule resulting from such factors as Resource shortages Duration expansions Other delays The network diagram must be analyzed to assess the impacts due to Path convergence (parallel activities) Dependent activities
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Analyzing Schedule Risks

G
Start
End
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Notes
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Tools and Techniques for Risk Analysis

Expert judgment Expected value Decision trees Statistical sums Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Computer simulation Monte Carlo
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Notes
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Exercise 2
Analyze the 20 Risks You Identified in Exercise 1
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Step 4: Prioritize Risks

Risk prioritization is the process of ranking identified risks The project team must decide which risks will be addressed, based on the premise that there never will be enough time and resources to respond to all risks
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Risk Prioritization
Inputs List of analyzed risks Prioritization structure
Tools Qualitative assessment Quantitative assessment Comparative risk ranking
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Risk Prioritization Guidelines

Rank analyzed risks highest to lowest, based on Step 3, Analyze Prioritize threats and opportunities separately Prioritize risks as a team Use quantitative rankings when possible, and use qualitative ranking if necessary Do not plan risk response strategies at this time
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Exercise 3
Prioritize Your Top-5 Risks from Highest to Lowest
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Step 5: Risk Response Planning

Risk response planning involves Creating risk response strategies separately for both threats and opportunities Evaluating and selecting a primary response Incorporating responses into the risk and project plans
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Risk Response Planning Process

Inputs Prioritized risk listing Opportunities to pursue, threats to respond to Opportunities to accept, threats to accept Project plan Tools Specific tools Risk response development worksheet Comparative risk ranking (CRR) Risk Response Analysis Matrix Idea-generation tools Group techniques Analogy comparisons Decision-making tools Decision trees Life-cycle cost analysis Financial measures Probability functions
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Response Strategies for Threats

Accept (accepting the consequences) Mitigate (reducing the expected value of a threat) Minimizing the probability of the threat event Minimizing the impact of the threat event Transfer (shifting some or all of the threat to another) Avoid (eliminating a specific threat, usually by eliminating the cause)

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Response Strategies for Opportunities

Accept: Active or passive Enhance Maximize the probability of the opportunity event Maximize the impact of the opportunity event Exploit (ensure opportunity is realized) Share (allocate all or part of the ownership to third party)

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Risk Response Escalation

If appropriate risk response strategies for severe threats or significant opportunities cannot be developed The project manager is responsible for escalating to senior management
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Notes
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Exercise 4
Conduct a Threat Response for Your Top-5 Risks You Identified in Exercise 3
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Definition of Reserves
Reserves: A provision in the project management plan to mitigate cost and/or schedule risk Management reserves: A separately planned quantity used to allow for future situations that are impossible to predict, unknown unknowns Contingency reserves: The amount of funds, budget, or time needed above the estimate to reduce the risk of overruns of project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization, known unknowns Reserves are intended only for in scope risks
Source: PMBOK Guide, pp. 372, 169, 355
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Update Risk Management Plan

Represents the final output of all the risk response work Contains results of the preceding steps of risk identification, analysis, and prioritization Includes how contingency plans will be implemented and executed Includes how reserves will be allocated Provides structure for future risk management updates Provides a good basis for lessons learned
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Notes
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Risk Monitoring and Control

[T]he process of identifying, analyzing, and planning for newly arising risks, keeping track of the identified risks and those on the watchlist, reanalyzing existing risksand reviewing the execution of risk responses while evaluating their effectiveness* Integrated with project plan, execution, and control processes Related to the accomplishment of project objectives Performed continuously during the project Composed of 3 steps Execute the risk management plan (RMP) Evaluate the RMP Update documentation in the RMP
*Source: PMBOK Guide, p. 264
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Notes
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Risk Monitoring and Control Overview

Risk monitoring and control Risk management plan Execute Evaluate Document Updated risk management plan Updated prioritized risk list Progress, deviations, variances Planned responses, evaluations, additional responses Project execution and control processes
Updated risk response development
Risk reassessment
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Notes
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Step 6: Execute Risk Strategy

Risk executing involves Implementing risk response strategies in the project plan Monitoring and reacting to risk triggers, symptoms, indicators, and residual risks Communicating plan status to project stakeholders
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Notes
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Execute Risk Strategies

Inputs Project plan Risk management plan Risk list Approved change requests Work performance information Performance requests Tools Technical performance measurement Status reports and meetings Early warning system
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Notes
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Risk Execution Terms

ProblemA negative risk event, either known or unknown, that materializes WindfallA positive risk event, either known or unknown, that materializes WorkaroundA response, not defined in advance, to a negative risk event that has materialized Corrective actionPerforming the response to a negative risk event, either planned or unplanned, when the threat materializes
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Establish an Early Warning System

Establish an early warning system to detect deviations from plan that may be or may cause risk triggers. Exposure increases as cost and schedule variances increase Examples of early warning include Cost variance Schedule variance Changes in forecasted project end date Changes in float Changes in stakeholder attitude Emergence of additional critical paths
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Step 7: Evaluate Results

Evaluating risk response results involves Monitoring the effectiveness of risk response strategies Evaluating corrective actions taken Reanalyzing existing risks Reassessing the risk environment Evaluating project assumption validity Identifying new risks Adjusting the plan accordingly
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Risk Evaluation
Inputs Risk management plan and project plan Cost and schedule performance All relevant event information Corrective actions Change requests Tools Risk reassessment Risk audits Variance and trend analysis Assumptions analysis Technical performance measurement Reserve and contingency analysis Status meetings
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Evaluation Guidelines
Identify opportunities to refine the risk management plan Identify any additional action required Reassess risks and response strategies Determine whether the consequences of the strategy were the same as envisioned
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Notes
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Step 8: Risk Management Plan Documentation

Risk updating involves Recording outcomes of risk reassessments Closing out risks no longer applicable Documenting changes to probability and impact matrixes and the risk breakdown structure (RBS) Creating lessons learned Revising and reissuing the project management plan
Evaluate
Analyze
Execute
Prioritize
Plan
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Notes
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Update Risk Documentation

Inputs Risk identification and analysis data Risk management results Project results Assumptions and impressions Interpretations and analysis Tools Documentation tools Simple reporting format Routine project reports ESI risk tools
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Notes
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Benefits of Updating the Risk Management Plan

Provides a valuable historical reference for future projects (lessons learned) Provides a project chronology of events for audit and other reasons Provides a communications mechanism The Risk Management Plan should be updated by the project team members.
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Notes
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RiskThe Final Steps During Project Closeout

Risk response control and risk management conclude with Final risk assessment Cost, schedule, and performance Goal achievement assessment Determine whether the customer is satisfied Evaluation for lessons learned Identify implications for the future
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Notes
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Workshop Review
By now you should be able to Define risk and risk management Identify risks using various methods Assess the potential impact of risk factors Prioritize risks to determine the most important Develop effective risk response strategies Control risk during project execution using proven tools and techniques Use a practical 8-step process to manage project risk Integrate Risk Management into the overall Project Management process
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Notes
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Bibliography and Suggested Reading

Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. Newtown Square, Pa.: Project Management Institute, 2004. Ward, LeRoy, ed. Project Management Terms: A Working Glossary. Arlington, Va.: ESI International, 2000.
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Notes
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Managing Project Risk

Copyright ESI International August 2007 All rights reserved.

ESI International Arlington, VA USA

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Ongoing Business Operation

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Project Life Cycle

Managing Project Risk

Project Management Process Groups

Project Process Groups

Monitoring and Controlling Processes Planning Process

Monitoring and Controlling Processes Planning Process

Monitoring and Controlling Processes Planning Process

Monitoring and Controlling Processes Planning Process

Source: PMBOK Guide, p. 69

Managing Project Risk

The Right Start

Managing Project Risk

Formulating Good Objectives

Managing Project Risk

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

Managing Project Risk

Organizing the WBS

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Dual Nature of Risk

Managing Project Risk

UnknownUnknowns UnknownUnknowns KnownUnknowns KnownKnowns

Managing Project Risk

Managing Project Risk

Risk Is a Function of Its Elements

Risk from snow in Maine

Managing Project Risk

Benefits of Risk Management

Managing Project Risk

Responsibilities in Risk Management

Managing Project Risk

Risk ManagementA Full Project LifeCycle Responsibility

Managing Project Risk

Risk Management Process

Tools and Techniques

Managing Project Risk

ESIs Risk Management Model

Document and Communicate

Analyze Qualitative Risk Analysis* and Quantitative Risk Analysis* Prioritize

Plan *PMI Project Risk Management Processes

Risk Response Planning*

Managing Project Risk

Step 1: Risk Management Planning

Document and Communicate

Managing Project Risk

Risk Management Planning Outputs

Managing Project Risk

Step 2: Identify Risks

Document and Communicate

Managing Project Risk

*Source: PMBOK Guide, pp. 247248

Managing Project Risk

Risk Identification Guidelines