Changes in working capital

Changes in book debt

changes in stocks
Changes in advance
Chanes in creditors and accruals
Changes in intercompany balances
Changes in employee gratuity
Changes in deferred taxes

2011
17752.27
$79,847.5
1,880.0
23,296.3
(236.90)
(4744.48)

2012
28026.9
$41,062.6
3,369.2
(9,705.3)
(521.18)
(5361.26)

2013
32495.08
$47,935.3
3,706.1
(10,037.1)
(625.42)
(6058.23)

Net changes in working capital

117794.67

56870.95

67415.79

2014
37725.76
$54,097.3
$4,076.7
($10,269.4)
(750.50)
(6845.80)

2015
43823.25
$61,057.7
$4,484.4
($10,478.4)
(900.60)
(7735.75)

78034.09

90250.64

Discount Rate
PV of FCF
PV of Terminal Value
Enterprise Value
Net Debt
Equity Value
Diluted Shares
Equity Value per Share

8%
Calculated using FCF from projections
and discount rate above
PV(EBITDAyear5)*Multiple
=sum
=Total Debt - Cash
=Enterprise Value - Net Debt
XXXXX
=Equity Value/Diluted Shares

Scenario Summary
Current Values:

Likely

Changing Cells:
Discount_Rate
12.0%
20.0%
Terminal_Growth
4.0%
3.9%
COGS
0.50
0.58
Sales_marketing
0.13
0.19
Result Cells:
Equity_value
417.62
141.83
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.

Worst

Best

20.0%
2.1%
0.70
0.21

12.0%
4.0%
0.50
0.13

74.43

417.62

Berger
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
February 19, 2013
Valuation Assumptions
Valuation Date
Discount Rate
Exit Multiple
Terminal Value
EBITDA Exit Multiple
Terminal Growth Rate
Tax Rate

31-Dec
15.0%
Perpetuity

6.0 x
4.0%
30.0%
Shaded area respresents historical financials

(Tk in thousands)

2006

Total Revenue
Growth Rate

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

Terminal

Normalized

$1,121,283

$1,271,761
13%

$1,314,591
3%

$1,471,322
12%

$1,745,819
19%

$1,964,046
13%

$2,209,552
13%

$2,485,746
13%

$2,796,464
13%

$3,146,023
13%

$3,146,023

COGS

649,941

729,839

761,567

848,496

1,043,554

982,023

1,104,776

1,242,873

1,398,232

1,573,011

1,573,011

Gross Margin
% of Sales

471,342
42%

541,922
43%

553,024
42%

622,826
42%

702,265
40%

982,023
50%

1,104,776
50%

1,242,873
50%

1,398,232
50%

1,573,011
50%

1,573,011

Sales and Marketing

% of Sales
Royalty, training and consultancy
% of Sales
General and Administrative
Total Operating Costs

178,693
0.16
16,419
0.01
195,112

217,898
0.17
17,042
0.01
234,940

254,808
0.19
16,413
0.01
271,221

306,417
0.21
17,375
0.01
323,792

360,183
0.21
20,787
0.01
380,970

255,326

287,242

323,147

363,540

408,983

25,236

28,390

31,939

35,931

40,423

280,562

315,632

355,086

399,472

449,406

EBIT
% of Sales

276,230
25%

306,982
24%

281,803
21%

299,034
20%

321,295
18%

701,461
36%

789,144
36%

887,787
36%

998,760
36%

1,123,605
36%

Depreciation/Amortization

38,825

45,483

49,161

740,286
38%

834,627
38%

936,948
38%

1,048,047
37%

1,172,158
37%

Income Taxes

210,438

236,743

266,336

299,628

337,082

471,903

321,295

491,023

552,401

621,451

699,132

786,524

1,101,108

36,813

38,825
117,795
40,354

45,483
56,871
165,500

49,161
67,416
33,900

49,287
78,034
38,306

48,553
90,251
40,000

48,553
90,251
40,000

Net Cash Flow Before Debt

371,700

375,513

569,296

632,079

704,826

9,638,060

Present Value of Adjusted Cash Flows

323,217

283,942

374,321

361,393

350,423

4,791,819

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

5.0

276,230

Add: Depreciation/Amortization
Less: Changes in Working Capital
Less: Capital Expenditures

Historical financials

Enterprise Value

6,485,116

Plus: Cash
Less: Interest Debt

$366,420
40,000

Equity Value:
No of shares outstanding
Equity value per share
Cash Flow Timing (1=12 months from valuation)

306,982

281,803

Historical financials

299,034

Historical financials

49,287

1,573,011

EBITDA
% of Sales

Unlevered Net Income

36,813

48,553

48,553
1,621,564

$6,811,536
23,188,940
293.74

1,019,410

Implied Enterprise Value

Sales growth
Other assumptions
0.13

0.50

0.42

0.13
0.01

From the prospectus

From the prospectus

Equity value to book ratio

Beginning book value
Earnings
ROE
Cost of capital

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
33%
75%
200%
10%
10%
10%
-0.333333333

-0.666666667

23%
1

65%
0.666666667

190%
0.333333333

0.23
0.9091

0.433333333
0.8264

0.633333333
0.7513

(ROE- r)(1+gbve)/PV factor

0.209093

0.358106667

0.475823333

Cumulative value

1.043023

Equity value to book multiple

204.3023

Anormal ROE
x (1+ cumulative book value )
(ROE- r)(1+gbve)
PV factor

Land and building

Plant and machinery
Factory
Furniture
Motor vehicle
Total

2011
7466
14742
10461
2835
3321
38,825

2012
8785
19230
11741
3224
2503
45,483

2013
9176
22647
12488
3301
1549
49,161

2014
9176
25232
11356
2345
1178
49,287

2015
7099
27962
10469
2382
641
48,553