Recap of Last Class

1. There is a lower infant mortality rate for athome births assisted by midwives than for hospital births attended by physicians. Does this mean that concerned women would be wise to opt for home deliveries by

Recap of Last Class

2.
A student who sends out a campus-wide mailing about forming a stamp-collecting club receives 24 responses, 8 of which are favourable. "Based on my sample of size n=24," he states, "I estimate that 1/3 of the student body favours forming such a club and hereby apply for funding." What is wrong with his logic? Discuss with your neighbour

midwives?

A. B.

Yes No

Why or why not? Discuss with your neighbour

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Chapter 1
Introduction to Statistics
1-1 Overview 1-2 The Nature of Data 1-3 Uses and Abuses of Statistics 1-4 Design of Experiments

Collecting Data
We typically obtain our data from two common sources; observational studies and experiments. In an observational study, we observe and measure specific characteristics but we dont attempt to manipulate or modify the subjects being studied. Example: Surveys. In an experiment, we apply some treatment and then proceed to observe its effects on the subjects. Example: Clinical drug trials.
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Design of Experiments
When designing an experiment, one should follow the steps below. 1. Identify your objective. What question are you trying to answer? What is the population of interest? 2. Collect sample data. The sample must be large enough to detect the treatment effect, representative of the population under consideration, and unaffected by extraneous factors. 3. Use a random procedure to avoid bias. 4. Analyze the data and form conclusions.
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Design of Experiments
Example: Hudson Auto Repair
The manager of Hudson Auto would like to have a better understanding of the cost of parts used in the engine tune-ups performed in the shop. She examines 50 customer invoices for tune-ups and records the costs of parts, rounded to the nearest dollar

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Process of Statistical Inference

1. Population
consists of all tune-ups. Average cost of parts is unknown.

Treatment and Control Groups

Interference from variable factors that are not relevant to the issue being studied can be controlled through good experimental design. Careful experiments often involve a treatment group that is given a particular treatment and a control group that is not given the treatment (or is given a fake treatment). Example: The 1954 Salk vaccine trials involved a treatment group of children who were injected with the vaccine and a control group of children who were injected with a placebo.

2. A sample of 50
engine tune-ups is examined.

4. The sample average

is used to estimate the population average.

3. The sample data

provide a sample average parts cost of $79 per tune-up.

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The Placebo Effect

A placebo effect occurs when a subject that has received a placebo incorrectly believes that he/she is receiving a treatment and reports an improvement in symptoms. The placebo effect can be countered by using blinding, a technique in which the subject doesnt know whether he/she is receiving a treatment or a placebo. To avoid biased interpretations of the results, experimenters sometimes use a double-blind experiment wherein neither the subjects nor the experimenters are aware of which subjects receive the treatment or placebo.
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Design of Experiment
When designing an experiment to test the effectiveness of one or more treatments, subjects should be assigned to the different treatments in such a way that those groups are very similar. One simple yet effective approach is known as a completely randomized design. In this approach, subjects are assigned to the treatments at random. Another approach is a rigorously controlled design wherein subjects are chosen carefully so that the different groups are carefully arranged to be similar.
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Confounding
The results of experiments are sometimes ruined by confounding. Confounding occurs when the effects from two or more variables cannot be distinguished from each other. Example: In a study of the effects of education on salary, a group of older subjects without university degrees might be compared to a group of younger subjects with university degrees. If a difference in salary is observed, it would be difficult to tell if the difference is due to education or age.
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Replication
Replication is the repetition of an experiment on more than one subject. Samples should be large enough so that the erratic behaviour that is characteristic of very small samples will not disguise the true effects of different treatments.

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Randomization
Randomization is used when subjects are assigned to different groups through a process of random selection. The idea is to use chance as a way to create two groups that are similar. Randomization plays a crucial role in how the samples are chosen. We will now explore several such sampling methods. REMEMBER: Data carelessly collected may be so completely useless that no amount of statistical torturing can salvage them.
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Random Sample
In a random sample, members of the population are selected in such a way that each individual has an equal chance of being selected.

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Simple Random Sample

A simple random sample of n subjects is selected in such a way that every possible sample of size n has the same chance of being chosen. Example: When pollsters and telemarketers, generate a phone number at random so that all phone numbers are possible, they are using random sampling. If they generate 100 such phone numbers, they have obtained a simple random sample of size 100.

Simple Random Sample

Computers can be used to generate random numbers for selecting random samples

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Example: The Excel function RANDBETWEEN(1,X) can be used to generate random numbers between 1 and X

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Stratified Sampling
With stratified sampling, we subdivide the populations into at least two different subpopulations (or strata) that share the same characteristics (such as gender), then we draw a simple random sample from each stratum.

Stratified Sampling
Stratified sampling can help us reduce variation in our results that might result from a simple random sample. Example: In surveying views on pay equity, we might use gender as a basis for creating two strata and use proportionate sampling. A simple random sample might be biased toward males or females.

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Systematic Sampling
In systematic sampling, we select some starting point and then select every kth element in the population.

Cluster Sampling
In cluster sampling, we first divide the population area into clusters, then randomly select a few of those sections, and then choose all the members from those selected sections.

Example: When selecting a sample of objects for inspection on an assembly line, you might select every 100th object.
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Stratified Sampling versus Cluster Sampling

In stratified sampling, we select some of the objects from every strata. In cluster sampling, we select all of the objects from some of the clusters.

Convenience Sampling
In convenience sampling, we simply use results that are readily available. Convenience sampling does not employ randomization and can be heavily biased.

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Summary
Three very important considerations in the design of experiments are as follows 1. Use randomization to assign subjects to different groups. 2. Use replication by repeating the experiment on enough subjects so that effects of treatment or other factors can be clearly seen. 3. Control the effects of variables by using such techniques as blinding and a completely randomized experimental design.
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Summary

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Errors
No matter how well you plan and execute the sample collection process, there is likely to be some error in the results. Sampling error is the difference between a sample result and the true population result; such an error results from chance sample fluctuations. Nonsampling error occurs when the sample data incorrectly collected, recorded, or analyzed (such as by selecting a nonrandom and biased sample, using a defective instrument, or copying the data incorrectly).
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Pause & Practice

1. Temperatures and amounts of precipitation and snowfall are recorded in different locations across the country. This corresponds to:
A. An observational study B. An experiment

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Pause & Practice

2. When the population of professors is divided into groups according to their ranks (instructor, assistant professor, senior, etc...) and then several are selected from each group to make up a sample, the sample is called a cluster sample.
A. True B. False

Pause & Practice

3. A medical researcher from Acadia University interviews all leukemia patients in each of 20 randomly selected hospitals. This is an example of the following type of sampling:

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A. B. C. D. E.

Random Stratified Systematic Cluster Convenience

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Pause & Practice

4. In conducting research for the Ottawa evening news, a reporter for CBC interviews 15 people as they leave Revenue Canada audits. This is an example of the following type of sampling:
A. B. C. D. E. Random Stratified Systematic Cluster Convenience

Coming up
Our next step will be organizing and summarizing data Assignment #1 is posted Due Sept. 18th in seminar For next class: Read sections 2-1 to 2-2

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