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Ahmad S. Ahmad a, , P.S. Ghosh a , S. Shahnawaz Ahmed b , Syed Abdul Kader Aljunid a

b a College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Selangor, Malaysia Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Received 12 November 2003; received in revised form 10 March 2004; accepted 13 March 2004 Available online 15 June 2004

Abstract The environmental and weather conditions cause ashover on polluted insulators leading to outages in a power system. It is generally recognized that the main causes leading to the contamination of insulators are marine pollution as found in the immediate neighborhood of the coastal regions, and solid pollution as found in the dense industrial areas. This research is directed towards the study of contamination of insulator under marine pollution. The effects of various meteorological factors on the pollution severity have been investigated thoroughly. A new approach using ANN as a function estimator has been developed and used to model accurately the relationship between ESDD with temperature (T), humidity (H), pressure (P), rainfall (R), and wind velocity (WV). The ANN-predicted ESDDs have been compared with the measured ones for a practical system. 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction With the ever increasing demand for electrical power, there has been a steady growth in transmission line voltages required for optimum and economic transfer of large blocks of power over long distances. As the level of transmission voltage is increased, switching and dynamic overvoltages and withstand ability of the insulators under polluted conditions have become most important factors in determining the insulation level of the system. At the coastal areas the high-voltage insulators are affected by salt particles that settle on the insulators surfaces. The winds that blow from the sea carry the salt particles. These particles are not dangerous in its dry condition but with high environmental humidity or drizzle rain conditions the salt can absorb the water and form a thin lm with high conductivity. This layer gives an ideal path for the leakage current to pass from the high-voltage conductor to the ground. The conductivity of this layer depends on the type of salts [1,2] that form the layer on the insulators. High failure rate of polluted insu-

Corresponding author. Tel.: +60-3892-872-76; fax: +60-3892-635-06. E-mail address: ahmads@ieee.org (A.S. Ahmad). 0378-7796/$ see front matter 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2004.03.009

lator due to the ashover has been found near the coastal areas [3]. Contamination monitoring is important for addressing an effective solution against pollution ashover. Meteorological conditions vary considerably from the coastal areas to the inland areas and play an important role in the deposition rate of pollutants and electrical behavior of insulators. The survey [3] proved that the insulator contamination problem is strongly environment dependent and no generalized anti-pollution criteria can be offered. The determination of outdoor insulation level and design, in a new location is a difcult matter without having some information on the severity of prevailing pollution. It is, therefore, imperative to have a reasonable and accurate assessment of site severity. Works in Refs. [49] have found considerable relationships between the contamination severity in terms of equivalent salt deposit density (ESDD) and ashover with respect to the meteorological parameters. But at the most the research can study the effect of one or more of these parameters on ESDD or on ashover. An attempt has been done in Ref. [10] to relate most of the meteorological parameters with ESDD and develop a new mathematical model using multiple regression analysis technique. However, regression analysis cannot capture to the full extent the uncertainties in an unknown relationship like that of ESDD.

132

In the last decade many research have been carried out on the application of ANN in many elds that require modeling the uncertainties. It has been used successfully in capacitor control [11], nding complex electric stress distribution along the insulator surface [12], alarm processing [13], pattern recognition of partial discharges [14,15] and in pollution discharge modeling [16]. In this paper a new approach using ANN as function estimator has been developed and used to model accurately the relationship between ESDD (the dependent factor) and most of the meteorological parameters (the independent factors) such as temperature, humidity, pressure, rainfall, and wind speed. The multi-layer feed forward neural network is employed in this study. The approach has been tested for a practical and live system sited in the East Coast of Malaysia and compared with actual eld data.

the training accuracy has been assessed by root mean square error (RMSE).

3. Details of ANN algorithm Articial neural network algorithm has been used successfully in many applications. It is useful because it acts as a model of real-world system or function. The model then stands for the system it represents, typically to predict or to control it. ANN can model a function even if the equation describing it is unknown; the only prerequisite is representative sample of the function behavior and that is from the experimental data and not from a theoretical understanding. Fig. 1 shows the schematic diagram of a multi-layer feed forward network used in this paper. The neurons in the network can be divided into three layers: input layer, output layer, and hidden layers. It is important to note that the feed forward network signals can only propagate from the input layer to the output layer through the hidden layers. Each neuron of the output layer receives a signal from all input via hidden layer neurons along connections with modiable weights. The neural network can identify input pattern vectors, once the connection weights are adjusted by means of the learning process. The back-propagation learning algorithm [18] which is a generalization of WidrowHoff error correction rule [19] is the most popular method in training the ANN and is employed in this work. This learning algorithm is presented here in brief. For each neuron in the input layer, the neuron outputs are given by Oi = neti

DESIRED OUTPUTS ESDD

2. Onsite measurements and research methodology The pollution severity at a test location is quantied in terms of equivalent salt deposit density stated in units of mg/cm2 NaCl. ESDD is the equivalent amount of NaCl that would yield the same conductivity at complete dilution. The interpretation of ESDD data may be different from place to place but its value provides a basis of classication of contamination severity. ESDD is widely used in Malaysia for determining salt contamination level. If the value of ESDD is equal or greater than 0.03 mg/cm2 , the insulators are then washed [17]. The site measurement activities are carried out daily during dry season at Sultan Ismail Power Station in Paka, Terengganu, Malaysia, utilizing three samples of typical tension type Cap-and-Pin glass insulators which are commonly installed on transmission lines in that area. The samples were taken down from the scaffold and the pollutants were removed by washing the insulators using paintbrush and distilled water. Every contaminated sample for each test was washed by immersing it in distilled water and the contamination value was measured by determining the conductivity or the rate of rise of the conductivity value for the polluted water after washing the insulator. Using such procedure, ESDD can be determined. The knowledge about contamination behavior and level will help in the establishment of maintenance policy because both critical months and exposure periods of the year can be obtained. The pollution severity is measured in terms of ESDD under ve varying meteorological factors, e.g. temperature (T), humidity (H), pressure (P), rainfall (R), and wind velocity (WV). Efcient modeling of pollution severity and ashover voltage is of paramount interest to all engineers involved in the design of transmission line insulators. Among the various articial neural network presented so far, the multi-layer feed-forward network with back-propagation technique is employed in the present study to model ESDD = f(T, H, R, P, WV). The neural network is trained with the help of data obtained from site measurement and

(1)

OUTPUT LAYER

HIDDEN LAYER

INPUT LAYER

133

where neti is the input of neuron i and Oi the output of neuron i. Again, for each neuron in the output layer, the neuron inputs are given by

Nj

4. Pre-processing of data Scaling of the inputoutput data has a signicant inuence on the convergence property and also on the accuracy of the learning process. It is obvious from the sigmoidal activation function given in Eq. (3) that the range of the output of the network must be within (0, 1). Moreover, the input variables should be kept small in order to avoid saturation effect caused by the sigmoidal function. Thus, the inputoutput data must be normalized before the initiation of training of the neural network. In this work nine different schemes have been tried for scaling the inputoutput variables as detailed in the Ref. [16]. After the normalization, the input variables can then be easily made to fall in the range (1, 1). Further, the range of the normalized output vector component is made to fall within (0, 1).

netk =

j=1

wkj Oj ,

k = 1, . . . , Nk

(2)

where wkj is connection weight between neuron j and neuron k, and Nj , Nk are the number of neurons in the hidden and output layers respectively; the neuron outputs are given by Ok = 1 = fk (netk , k , 0 ) 1 + exp((netk + k )/0 ) (3)

where k is the threshold of neuron k, and the activation functions fk a sigmoidal function. For the neurons in the hidden layer, the input and the outputs are given by the relationships similar to those given in the Eqs. (2) and (3) respectively. The connection weights of the feed forward network are derived from the inputoutput patterns in the training set by the application of generalization delta rule [18]. The algorithm is based on minimization of the error function of each pattern p by the use of the steepest descent method [18]. The sum of squared errors which is the error function of each pattern is given by 1 Ep = 2

Nk

5. Problem description The proposed modeling of pollution severity in terms of ESDD is done with the help of data obtained from site measurement performed at Sultan Ismail Power Station. The meteorological parameters on which the value of ESDD depends are: temperature in C, humidity in %, air pressure in mbar, rainfall in mm2 , and wind velocity in m/s. In this paper, ESDD = f(T, H, P, R, WV) modeling has been attempted based on articial neural network instead of any empirical approach. Out of 60 data sets collected from site measurement, 46 sets of input/output patterns are used as training data set in the training process. Each training presentation contains ve input nodes characterizing meteorological parameters (T, H, P, R, WV) and one output node which provides corresponding values of ESDD. Once the neural network is trained by using 46 training sets, it is tested using four test data set selected randomly from the remaining 14 data set. All inputs and outputs in the training patterns are normalized within the respective ranges as per different normalizing schemes, before they are used for neural network training and testing. Finally, with the help of input pattern vectors of rest 10 data set estimated values of ESDD are computed using the trained ANN model, i.e. ESDD = f(T, H, P, R, WV) and are plotted against the measured ESDD values as shown in Fig. 2.

(tpk Opk )2

k=1

(4)

where tpk and Opk are target and calculated outputs for output neuron k respectively. The overall measure of the error for all the inputoutput patterns is given by

Np

E=

p=1

Ep

(5)

where Np is the number of inputoutput patterns in the training set. When an input pattern p with the target output vector tp is presented, the connection weights are updated by using the equations wkj (p) = pk Opj + wkj (p 1) (6)

where is learning rate and the momentum constant. Now, pk is dened in two different ways. For each neuron in the output layer pk = (tpk Opk )Opk (1 Opk ) and for each neuron in the hidden layer

Nk

(7) 6. Details of work done (8) In applying the learning rule described, there are several issues which should be addressed. The optimization process has been carried out based on RMSE and less oscillation in the error of convergence. From the results in Tables 15, the observations that can be made are: (a) For the convention learning algorithm with the choice of = 0.2, = 0.9 and 11 hidden layers nodes, the

pk = Opj (1 Opj )

k=1

pk wkj

It is important to know that the threshold of each neuron is learned in the way same as that for the other weights. The threshold of a neuron is regarded as a modiable connection weight between that neuron and a ctitious neuron in the previous layer, which always has an output value of unity.

134

(b)

Fig. 2. Comparison between estimated and measured values of ESDD. Table 1 No. of hidden layers = 1, no. of hidden layer nodes = 11, = 0.2, = 0.9, no. of iteration = 1000 Scheme no. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Input Max Max Max Maximin Maximin Maximin Mean and S.D. Mean and S.D. Mean and S.D. Output Max Maximin Mean and S.D. Max Maximin Mean and S.D. Max Maximin Mean and S.D. RMSE 0.0558 0.0903 0.0903 0.0513 0.0814 0.0814 0.0362 0.0730 0.0730

(c)

Table 2 No. of hidden layers = 1, no. of hidden layer nodes = 11, input = mean and S.D., output = Max, no. of iteration = 1000 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.25 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 RMSE 0.0362 0.0365 0.0386 0.0398 0.0366 0.0366 Notes High oscillation Less oscillation

(d)

Table 3 No. of hidden layers = 1, = 0.2, = 0.8, input = mean and S.D., output = Max, no. of iteration = 1000 No. of nodes in hidden layers 9 10 11 12 13 RMSE 0.0362 0.0375 0.0365 0.0366 0.0363 Notes High oscillation Less oscillation High oscillation

(e)

Table 4 No. of hidden layer nodes = 11, = 0.2, = 0.8, input = mean and S.D., output = Max, no. of iteration = 1000 No. of layers 1 2 No. of nodes in hidden layers 11 11, 11 RMSE 0.0365 0.0383 Notes Oscillation No oscillation

best normalization scheme is being optimized in Table 1. The number of iterations used in the training process is 1000. The results of Table 1 indicate that the scheme 7 of normalization is the best choice for the present work. Most of the works on feed forward neural nets use constant values of and . Rumelhart et al. [18] recommended that a combination of = 0.25, = 0.9 can yield good results for most problems. But there is still no consensus as to what values of and should be used in the learning process; rather, the optimal values of and may be problem dependent. In the present work, extensive studies have been carried out on the effect of different values of and on the convergence rate of the learning method and are given in Table 2. It is evident from Table 2 that the best RMSE is obtained, i.e. 0.0362 for = 0.2 and = 0.9, but with high oscillation in the error convergence. Whereas for = 0.2 and = 0.8 the RMSE is slightly higher, i.e. 0.0365, but with less oscillation in the error convergence. So the combination of = 0.2 and = 0.8 is the best choice with 11 nodes in the hidden layer. The number of iterations used in the training process is 1000. Fig. 3 shows the comparison between the high oscillation and less oscillation in the error convergence for the two cases shown in Table 2. As evident from Table 3 the number of hidden layer nodes is not a constant factor, rather, it is also problem dependent. The number of hidden layer nodes is varied from 9 to 13. As seen from the result of Table 3, the best RMSE is obtained with nine nodes but the convergence is highly oscillatory. Whereas, the RMSE with 11 nodes is slightly higher but the convergence of error is less oscillatory. Thus, for the present work, on the basis of minimum RMSE with less oscillation, the number of nodes in the hidden layer is optimized at 11 with the choice on = 0.2 and = 0.8. Table 4 compares the effect of number of hidden layers on the convergence rate of the training process. It is found that, using two hidden layers has denitely a better effect on the convergence rate than when one hidden layer is used, with same number of hidden layer nodes in both cases. When two hidden layers are used, although the RMS error is increased slightly but the error convergence is free of oscillation. Thus, in the present work, the test output results are calculated, using two hidden layers with 11 nodes in each. The discussion in Tables 14 reveals that excellent convergence characteristic for the present work is obtained with two hidden layers each containing 11 nodes and = 0.2 and = 0.8. The modeled output of the test data computed with help of best combination of the modiable parameters are tabulated against the target output, that is, data obtained from site measurements in Table 5. The RMS error obtained in the training process for 5000 iterations is 0.0338 and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the model output is found to be 3.6%.

135

Table 5 No. of hidden layers = 2, no. of hidden layer nodes = 11, = 0.2, = 0.8, input = mean and S.D., output = Max, no. of iteration = 5000, RMSE = 0.0338 No. of iteration = 5000; RMSE = 0.0338 rain (R) (mm2 ); range: 053 0 0 0 0.1 Wind velocity, WV (m/s); range: 19 2.5 3 4 4.5 Pressure, P (mbar); range: 10171027 1022 1024 1020 1021 Humidity, H (%); range: 7492 Temperature, T ( C); range: 2530 27.5 28.25 29.5 28 ESDD measured value (mg/cm2 ); range: 0.0010770.047808 1.693E03 1.739E03 1.739E03 2.267E03 ESDD estimate value (mg/cm2 ) 1.697E03 1.682E03 1.938E03 2.259E03 MAE (%)

81 80 77 83.5

3.6

Fig. 3. Comparison between high oscillation and less oscillation in error convergence for the two cases shown in Table 2.

Moreover, measured and estimated data of ESDD have been plotted for ten tests chosen randomly from the data collected at the site as shown in Fig. 2. It is also evident from Fig. 2 that the proposed ANN model is superior as compared to conventional regression model [10]. To

examine the convergence characteristics of the conventional algorithm, the variations of the root mean square (RMS) errors in the learning process is depicted in Fig. 4 against number of iterations.

7. Conclusion In this paper, ANN has been applied successfully in pollution severity measurement studies for function estimation. Modeling of the complex nonlinear function ESDD = f(T, H, R, P, WV), the equation of which is unknown, has been accomplished accurately. Further comparative analysis of the estimated results with the measured data (not used in training of ANN) collected from the site measurement amply demonstrate the effectiveness of the use of ANN in modeling ESDD that has an unknown nonlinear relationship. The estimation of critical contamination level in terms of ESDD will help in xing maintenance policy and addressing an effective solution against pollution ashover of high-voltage insulators.

Fig. 4. The variation of RMS error vs. number of iterations during training process.

136

A.S. Ahmad et al. / Electric Power Systems Research 72 (2004) 131136 [18] D.E. Rumelhart, G.E. Hinton, J.R. Williams, Learning Internal Representation by Error Propagation, Parallel Distributed Processing, vol. 1, MIT Press, MA, 1986, pp. 318362. [19] B. Widrow, M.E. Hoff, Adaptive Switching Networks, Parallel Distributed Processing, vol. 1, MIT Press, MA, 1986, pp. 123134.

References

[1] R.W.S. Garcia, R. Bosignli, E. Gomes Jr., Inuence of the non-uniformity of pollution distribution on the electrical behavior of insulators, in: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials, Tokyo, Japan, 812 July 1991, pp. 342345. [2] K. Chrzan, Z. Pohl, T. Kowalak, Hygroscopic properties of pollutants on HV insulators, IEEE Trans. Electr. Insul. 24 (1) (1989) 107112. [3] Q. Li, L. Wang, Z. Su, Y. Liu, K. Morita, R. Matsuoka, S. Ito, Natural contamination test results of various insulators under DC voltage in an inland area in China, in: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials, Japan, 812 July 1991, pp. 350353. [4] V.T. Morgan, Effects of frequency, temperature, compression and air pressure on the dielectric properties of a multilayer stack of dry kraft paper, IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul. 5 (1) (1998) 125131. [5] K. Naito, Y. Mizuno, W. Naganawa, A study on probabilistic assessment of contamination ashover of high voltage insulator, IEEE Trans. Power Deliv. 10 (3) (1995) 13781384. [6] O.E. Gouda, Inuence of pollution on HV Insulators, in: Conference Record of the 1990 IEEE International Symposium on Electrical Insulation, Toronto, Canada, 36 June 1990, pp. 195198. [7] J.C. Zheng, Z. Wang, Y.W. Liu, Inuence of humidity on ashover in air in the presence of dielectric surfaces, in: Proceedings of IEEE Conference Region 10 on Computer Communication, Control and Power Engineering, TENCON93, pp. 443449. [8] Z. Renyu, Z. Jianchao, Progress in outdoor insulation research in China, IEEE Trans. Electr. Insul. 25 (6) (1990) 11251137. [9] X. Liu, J. Bai, Selection of insulation level of HVAC power lines of operating in high altitude polluted area, in: Proceedings of the Second IEEE International Conference on Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials, vol. 1, 1988, pp. 268271. [10] A.S. Ahmad, H. Ahmad, R.B. Jidin, T. Tamsir, S. Shahnawaz Ahmed, Z. Buntat, Contamination of high voltage insulators in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia, in: Proceedings of the IEEEPES/CSEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2000, vol. 3, Perth, Australia, 47 December 2000, pp. 12231228. [11] N.I. Santoso, O.T. Tan, Neural net based real time control of capacitors installed on the distribution system, IEEE Trans. PWRD 5 (1990) 266272. [12] K. Bhattacharya, S. Chakravorti, P.K. Mukherjee, Insulator contour optimization by a neural network, IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul. 8 (2) (2001) 157161. [13] E.H.P. Chan, Application of neural network computing in intelligent alarm processing, in: Proceedings of IEEEPICA Conference, Seatle, USA, 1989, pp. 246251. [14] H. Suzuki, T. Endoh, Pattern recognition of partial discharge in XLPE cables using a neural network, IEEE Trans. Electr. Insul. 27 (1992) 543549. [15] N. Hozumi, T. Okamoto, T. Imajo, Discrimination of partial discharge patterns using a neural network, IEEE Trans. Electr. Insul. 27 (1992) 550556. [16] P.S. Ghosh, S. Chakravorti, Chatterjee, Estimation of time to ashover characteristics of contaminated electrolytic surfaces using articial neural network, IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul. 2 (1995) 10641074. [17] H. Ahmad, M.Y. Bin Ibrahim, A multivariate model for equivalent salt deposit density ESDD distribution prediction for the maintenance of polluted insulator, in: Proceedings of the CIGRE Symposium, Bangkok, 1989.

Ahmad S. Ahmad was born in Diyala, Iraq. He received his B.Sc. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Technology-Baghdad in 1987. He got his Master Degree from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in 1999. He is IEEE member. Currently he is a Senior Lecturer at the Universiti Tenaga Nasional-Malaysia (UNITEN). He is also in the nal stage of his Ph.D.

P.S. Ghosh he received his B.Sc. in Electrical Engineering from R.E.C. Durgapur, Burdwan University in 1988. In 1990 he received his M.Sc. in Electrical Engineering on HV Engineering from Jadavpur University, India. He received his Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering on Pollution Flashover Phenomenon of HV Transmission Line Insulators from Jadavpur University, India in 1995. Currently he is a Senior Lecture at Universiti Tenaga Nasional-Malaysia. S. Shahnawaz Ahmed received his B.Sc. and M.Sc. in electrical and electronic engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, respectively in 1982 and 1984, and his Ph.D. in electrical engineering from the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology, Manchester, U.K., in 1987. Since 1983, he has been with BUET where he became a full Professor in 1996. He also served on contract as a Professor in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in the period 20002003. Presently he also holds an additional responsibility as the Director, Centre for Energy Studies, BUET. His research interests include modeling, simulation, real-time control and protection of power systems, FACTS, SMES, and photovoltaic arrays. He has reviewed and authored many papers in international journals including IEE Proceedings and IEEE Transactions. He is a Senior Member in IEEE Power Engineering Society, and a Fellow in Bangladesh Institution of Engineers.

Syed Abdul Kader Aljunid was born in Malaysia. He received his Diploma in Electrical Engineering (Light Current) from Technical College, Malaysia in 1966. He received his B.Sc. (1st Class Hons.) in Electrical Engineering from the University of Strathcylde, UK, 1969. He got his M.Sc. in System Engineering from University of Surrey, UK, 1973. He received his Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from University of California Santa Barbara, USA, 1989. Currently he is Professor in EE and also Special Advisor to the Vice Chancellor of Universiti Tenaga Nasional.

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