Analisis Kelayakan Industri

Industrial Feasibility Analysis

OVERVIEW

Budi HARTONO

Budi Hartono JTMI - UGM

Outline
Bisnis Fundamentals of FS Purposes, main ideas Recall: Time value of money Multiple views of FS

Bisnis

Bisnis
Bisnis
Membuat uang melalui cara-cara yang bertanggungjawab!

Atau
Membuat uang sebanyak-banyaknya, secepatcepatnya, Selanggeng-langgengnya!

Prinsip Bisnis
Prinsip return (tidak sekedar profit) Prinsip nilai waktu uang Prinsip Resiko

Investasi Industri
Antara lain mencakup: Pembangunan industri baru (barang atau jasa). Pengembangan industri yang sudah ada. Penggantian atau modifikasi peralatan industri. Perlu analisis kelayakan juga:
Pengembangan produk baru Modifikasi produk Diversifikasi produk

Ciri Investasi Industri

Menyerap (dan mengikat dana) dalam waktu lama. Ada masa tunggu sebelum dapat menikmati keuntungan. Tingkat resiko lebih tinggi.
Jika dibandingkan investasi harta lancar, misal penambahan persediaan, piutang dagang, dll.

Salah keputusan perlu waktu dan biaya yang besar untuk memperbaiki.

Feasibility Study: Fundamentals

Analisis Kelayakan Industri = Feasibility Study = Benefit-Cost Analysis

Analisis Kelayakan Industri

Tujuan: Keputusan Manajemen
Jalan terus, atau STOP!

Feasibility Study: Fundamentals

Main Idea
Benefits vs. Cost
example: the simplest form of AKI

http://lukisan-potret.blogspot.com/2010/06/lukisan-tokoh-kita.html

FS = Benefit vs. Cost

Benefit Cost

Important!! Identifying all relevant variables: Benefit? Cost? Time duration Time value of money Projections / forecast risk & uncetainty

Feasibility Study: Fundamentals

What is benefit?

Feasibility Study: Fundamentals

What is cost?

Feasibility Study: Fundamentals Why consider risks?

The top ten risks

Regulatory and compliance risk Global financial shocks Aging consumers and workforce The inability to capitalize on emerging markets Industry consolidation/transition Energy shocks Execution of strategic transactions Cost inflation Radical greening Consumer demand shifts

Recall: Time value of money

Time value of money

Example
Time value of Money which would you rather have? Rp 1 M today or Rp 1M next year

Present Value

Present Value
PV = FVn / (1+r)^n
where;
PV = Present Value FVn= Future Value in n years r = interest rate (compounded)

Present Value (2)

Example: Suppose you receive $1000 when you retire within 20 years. If the interest rate is 10% per year, how much is the PV? Answer? PV = $1000 / (1+0.1)^20 = $148.65

Tips for Solving Time Value Problems

$ + 0 1 2

Draw a timeline interest rate !! time period Inflows (+); outflows (-)

year

Multiple views of FS

Multiple views of FS
Example: MBS

Multiple views of FS
Holding company

Genting Island (competitor)

MBS Stakehold ers

SG government

SG citizens

As Casino Opens, Watch for Its Social Impact Begins |By Stanislaus Jude Chan
Tourism officials hope the casinos will help Singapore achieve its target of 17 million visitors a year, generating over 21 billion US dollars by 2015. But from the inception of the idea for the first casino in 2004, it has met with much resistance among concerned citizens. Several groups, including the Muslim and Christian communities and social activists, expressed their disapproval to the casinos a move that is both peculiar and noteworthy in apathetic Singapore society. Despite public worries over the negative social impact of casino gambling as well as opening of doors to undesirable activities including money laundering, prostitution, and organised crime, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced in April 2005: "After weighing the matter carefully, the Cabinet has collectively concluded that we had no choice but to proceed with the (Integrated Resorts) IRs. As Prime Minister, I carry the ultimate responsibility for the decision." As a social safeguard to combat excessive gambling, the gambling levy was put in place, together with the setting up of the National Council on Problem Gambling and measures such as casino exclusion, to stop problem gamblers and those in financial difficulties from entering the casinos in Singapore.
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50616

Jul 14, 2010 | Rise in gambling addiction |By Melissa Kok More than one million visits by locals to casinos in Irs|By S Ramesh |

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1081392/1/.html

Konsumen Laporan Studi Kelayakan

Investor yang mencetuskan ide investasi. Calon penyedia dana. Calon mitra usaha. Calon donor. Badan pemberi fasilitas non keuangan (misal pemerintah).

Tahapan studi kelayakan.

Pre-evaluation study
Evaluasi hambatan kritis, misal pemasaran dan teknologi.

Feasibility study ($)

Evaluasi secara Sederhana (banyak penyederhanaan kondisi!); jika layak didetilkan.

Recall: Ciri Investasi Industri

Menyerap (dan mengikat dana) dalam waktu lama. Ada masa tunggu sebelum dapat menikmati keuntungan. Tingkat resiko lebih tinggi.
Jika dibandingkan investasi harta lancar, misal penambahan persediaan, piutang dagang, dll.

Salah keputusan perlu waktu dan biaya yang besar untuk memperbaiki.