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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | March 13, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update


Wednesday | March 13, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open High

European Industrial Production declined by 0.4 percent in January. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent in February. Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent in todays trade. European equities are trading lower today on the back of fall in the regions industrial production. Asian markets ended on a negative note and US stock futures are trading in the red. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012 from previous decline of 0.2 percent in Q3 of 2012. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent in February as against a decline of 0.5 percent in January. European Industrial Production declined by 0.4 percent in January as against a rise of 0.9 percent a month ago. Spot gold prices declined by 0.2 percent today on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) also exerted downside pressure on the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1589.14/oz and hovered around $1594.74/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets prices gained as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with strength in the DX, Spot silver prices declined by 0.14 percent today. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of upside in the base metals complex. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $29.0/oz and was trading at $29.14/oz till 4:30pm IST today. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices on the MCX. The base metals pack traded on a positive note today on account of decline in LME inventories, except Copper. However, weak global market sentiments, fall in European industrial production along with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined by 0.03 percent as a result of rise in LME copper inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 520,500 tonnes. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX also added downside pressure on the prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.4 precent today taking cues from unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories from API. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories, increase in OPEC production along with strength in the DX. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to rise by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending on 8th March 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 13 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5884.80 19511.97 12252.29 1994.79 15995.75

5893.85 19511.97 12339.45 1999.73 16006.16

5842.25 19338.52 12234.48 1988.19 15799.38

5851.20 19362.55 12239.66 1999.73 15799.38

-1.06 -1.03 -0.61 0.32 -1.30


Source: Reuters

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 13 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.58 1.3033 54.15

82.65 1.3064 54.38

82.35 1.3002 54.01

82.64 1.3005 54.35

0.05 -0.21 0.39


Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 13 March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1592.40 1592.30 29444.00 29.11 28.23 54875 92.62 109.70 5037 7828.00 428.45 1986.00 107.20 2230 120.60 17000 923.20 1980.00 106.30

1596.50 1592.30 29511.0 29.22 29.03 54967 92.98 109.89 5055 7866.00 429.30 2012.00 108.00 2251 121.90 17167 929.90 1996.25 106.80

1589.14 1589.70 29413.0 29.00 29.02 54790 92.47 109.32 5022 7809.00 427.10 1984.00 107.20 2226 120.50 16980 922.00 1978.00 106.20

1594.74 1590.50 29445.00 29.14 29.02 54943 92.87 109.80 5036 7832.00 428.30 1997.00 106.95 2246 120.50 17060 923.70 1985.00 106.10

-0.17 -0.06 0.38 -0.14 -0.38 0.20 0.36 0.14 0.30 -0.03 0.30 0.47 0.70 0.89 1.00 0.34 0.48 0.15 0.33

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update


Wednesday | March 13, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on account of expectations of favorable economic data from the US. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped as a result of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. In case of crude oil prices sharp upside will be prevented on the back of forecast for rise in US crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 13 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)


Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Mar13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29385 1582 54610 28.60 5890 4984 91.65 194.4 7740 424.6 105.9 119 105 915 Support 1 29476 1589 54910 29 5910 5031 92.5 196 7805 427.4 106.9 120.2 105.8 920 CMP 29556 1596 55000 29.15 5930 5043 92.71 198.8 7840 429.5 107.75 121.7 106.45 927.3 Resistance1 29632 1601 55291 29.37 5970 5085 93.5 199.4 7900 431 108 122 106.75 933 Resistance 2 29736 1609 55616 29.62 5990 5134 94.4 201.4 7970 433.8 108.65 123 107.25 940

Important Events for Today


Indicator Industrial Production m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction Federal Budget Balance Country Europe US US US US US US US Time (IST) 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 10:30pm 11:30pm Actual -0.4% Forecast -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 2.3M -220.0B Previous 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 3.8M 2.05/2.7 2.9B Impact Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium