WHY THE COMPLEX SYSTEM ANALYSIS APPROACH IS MORE COMPATIBLE THAN CLASSICAL SIR MODEL IN DENGUE TRANSMISSION

DILRUK GALLAGE

Abstract. Background: Dengue, which is transmitted predominately by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, has become a global problem since 1950s and is endemic in more than 100 countries. There are about 100 million people infected yearly. Here in Sri Lanka, the disease usually occurs as epidemics following monsoon seasons. Since no specic medical treatment or vaccine is available, one possible way is to analyze mathematical models of transmission of dengue disease. Aims: The aim of this work is to realize why the complex system analysis approach is more compatible with the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases than classical model approach. Methods: Here we monthly varied the eect of incubation period (EIP) of a classical SIR-model and investigate the behavior of the transmission of dengue disease. However EIP is not the only parameter varied but other parameters may be varied with time according to climate factors. Runge-Kutta Method is used here to solve system of ordinary dierential equations numerically (namely ode45 solver in MATLAB) to simulate our mathematical models. Results: Although the trajectory of infectious human population of classical model with xed EIP is convergent (ie. the disease will die out), it is not the case in model with varying EIP. Conclusions: : It is believed that the classical modeling approach is not suitable for decision making processes for controlling diseases. The reason this is not true is that because of classical models used with xed parameters (but generally parameters are varied with climatic factors) to study the transmission dengue disease, the results are very far from the reality. However, considering complex system analysis approach we are able to attain better results for transmission of disease than we do with classical model approach.

Received by the editors March 11, 2013. Key words and phrases. dengue , mathematical models, extrinsic incubation period (EIP), SIR-model, Runge-Kutta Method, ordinary dierential equations.
1

DILRUK GALLAGE

1. Transmission model for dengue disease with the effect of EIP

where k := 1 expv is the percentage of infected mosquitoes which are not infectious. So (1 k )I v is the number of infectious mosquitoes. Here we consider the eect of incubation period in mosquitoes. There is an opinion about whether classical model approach is compatible with the transmission dynamics of infectious disease. But complex analysis approach is more compatible with the transmission disease than classical model approach. We rst consider this classical model with xed incubation period. With xed eect of EIP for k=.1

As you see here, the disease will die out. However

MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND DENGUE

2. Transmission model of varying the effect of EIP

The following graph is a blowout of above graph.

A blowout of xed eect of EIP is shown below

Why I varied incubation period in mosquitoes is it has a strong relationship with climate factors. Therefore the incubation period in mosquitoes varies with time. Its not a xed value in nature. Here we only varied one parameter, incubation period. But other parameter may be varied with time according to climate factors such as temperature, relative humidify, rain fall... But in classical models, we considered those are xed values. In the reality, it is not.
Department of Mathematics & University of Colombo E-mail address : dilrukgallage@yahoo.com