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Market Outlook

March 19, 2013

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

The Indian markets are expected to open in the green today, tracking positive
opening in most of the Asian markets as stocks moved higher to take back some
losses made yesterday, when investors reacted to news that a bailout for Cyprus
would include a tax on bank deposits. A bailout of Cyprus announced over the
weekend included a controversial proposal to levy tax of up to 10% on all the
country's bank accounts, sparking widespread public anger and fears of a run on
some banks in the region.

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(0.7) (134.4) 19,293

Nifty

(0.6)

(37.4)

5,835

MID CAP

(0.3)

(18.4)

6,368

SMALL CAP

(0.7)

(41.7)

6,138

0.3

24.0

8,083

BSE PSU

(1.6) (113.2)

6,787

BANKEX

(0.7)

US stocks moved lower over the course of the day yesterday as markets responded
to news of a bailout agreement for Cyprus that raised concerns about a run on the
Mediterranean island's banks. Cyprus' parliament has postponed a vote on the
proposed bailout, which has generated significant opposition, as it is seen to
unnecessarily tax deposit holders. Meanwhile, the National Association of Home
Builders released a report showing an unexpected drop in US homebuilder
confidence in the month of March with Wells Fargo Housing Market Index coming
in at 44 as against 46 in February.

AUTO

(1.4) (152.8) 10,472

METAL

(2.3) (216.3)

9,046

OIL & GAS

(1.2) (107.0)

8,781

BSE IT

(0.5)

(36.5)

6,864

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE HC

Global Indices

Chg (%)

(90.4) 13,476

Dow Jones

(0.4)

(62.0) 14,452

NASDAQ

(0.4)

(11.5)

3,238

FTSE

(0.5)

(31.7)

6,458

Meanwhile Indian markets fell yesterday, in tandem with the global sell-off in
equities and commodities as an unusual bailout proposal for Cyprus fuelled
concerns that Europe's debt crisis may deepen. However, shares ended off their
day's lows, as hopes of a rate cut by the RBI at its mid-quarter policy review to be
announced today helped to limit the downside.

Nikkei

(2.7) (340.3) 12,221

Hang Seng

(2.0) (449.8) 22,083

Straits Times

(0.9)

(29.6)

3,256

Shanghai Com

(1.7)

(38.4)

2,240

Markets Today

Indian ADR

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,290/ 5,833 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,348 19,403 / 5,852 5,869 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,290/ 5,833 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,235 19,177 / 5,816 5,797 levels.

INFY

(0.7)

(0.4)

$53.2

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

Advances / Declines

SENSEX

19,177

19,235

19,290

19,348

19,403

NIFTY

5,797

5,816

5,833

5,852

5,869

Markets nervous ahead of Cyprus vote on bailout package


Bharti Airtel can continue offering 3G services till 8 May: Delhi HC

Net Inflows (March 18, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

3,223

2,650

573

6,715

51,067

475

583

(108)

(1,357)

(6,918)

FII Derivatives (March 15, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Index Futures

1,327

2,026

(699)

10,621

Stock Futures

1,298

1,319

(21)

26,173

Price (`)

chg (%)

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)

261

4.4

Coal India

303

(5.4)

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

0.0

$10.0

(1.7)

(0.7)

$41.5

HDB

(0.2)

(0.1)

$38.5

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,091

503

Declines

1,757

985

121

87

Volumes (` cr)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

MFs

0.4

IBN

Unchanged

News Analysis

WIT

Pidilite Industries
GMR Infra

Losers

21

4.4

Engineers India

171

(4.8)

Emami

624

4.1

National Alum

38

(4.7)

Indiabulls Finance

272

2.9

Lanco Infra

12

(4.6)

Shriram Transport

717

2.7

NMDC

138

(4.5)

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BSE

1,756

NSE

8,589

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Markets nervous ahead of Cyprus vote on bailout package


Global markets seem jittery on the back of parliamentary vote in Cyprus over the
bailout conditions. The European Union has agreed on a Euro10bn bailout for
Cyprus (lower than the expected Euro17bn), provided the country can recoup
about Euro5.8bn from bank depositors. The bank depositors (national as well as
foreigners) are expected to contribute a one-time charge of 9.9% on deposits
exceeding Euro100,000 and 6.75% on deposits up to Euro100,000. The
government is likely to adjust the levy such that impact on savers at the lower end
of the spectrum is reduced to some extent. Other conditions of the rescue package
include asset sale and an increase in the corporate tax rate to 12.5% from 10%.
The parliamentary vote has been postponed until Tuesday and meanwhile the
bank holiday has been extended until the vote.
Cyprus had requested for a bailout package in June 2012, owing to the banks
mounting losses after being heavily exposed to Greek debt. At its peak, the
banking system in Cyprus was eight times the size of the economy. The size of the
economy itself is relatively small since it accounts for 0.2% of the total Eurozone
output, with real GDP of Euro15bn in 2011. It is the fifth bailout for a Eurozone
economy (following Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain) and the first that
prescribes such conditions for depositors mainly owing to the nature of the
banking system and we believe that it is highly unlikely to set a precedent for future
bailouts. The IMF has also backed the package since it is seen as a sustainable,
fully financed solution that appropriately allocates the burden sharing.

Bharti Airtel can continue offering 3G services till 8 May:


Delhi HC
The Delhi high court yesterday ordered a stay on the order of the department of
telecommunications (DoT) asking Bharti Airtel to stop 3G services in the seven
circles - where it did not have the necessary licenses - within three days, as it
continued to hear the case. The first hearing is set for May 8. With the stay, Bharti
Airtel will not have to pay the `350cr penalty imposed on it by the DoT, till the
court gives the final order. The court has also allowed Bharti Airtel to continue to
offer its services, but has ordered it to keep all its revenue from 3G in a separate
bank account. The company will also have to sign an affidavit saying the
government could cash its bank guarantee if the states stance on the issue is
found correct.
Bharti Airtel was offering these services in seven circles, where it does not have 3G
spectrum, by signing intra-circle agreements with Vodafone India and Idea
Cellular. The DoT notice had also asked Bharti to pay a penalty of `50cr per
circle. Following the DoT notice, Bharti Airtel had moved to the Delhi High Court
on the same. The seven circles are Haryana, Maharashtra, UP (East), Kolkata,
Gujarat, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh. We maintain our Neutral rating on the
overall telecom sector.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Economic and Political News

18 road projects in FY12 yet to get financial closure: Government


India may cut oil import from Iran by 27%
India, Africa revise 2015 trade target upwards to US$100bn
AP action plan for agriculture with an outlay of `25,962cr
Government to borrow `3.5 lakh cr in first half of 2013-14

Corporate News

Gammon India to amalgamate power subsidiary


IL&FS Engineering bags `52cr buildings project
Bajaj targets 27-30% share in two-wheeler segment
CIL reviewing decision regarding continuance in ICVL: Government
Glenmark Generics recalls anti-asthma drug from US market
Visa Steel forms JV with SunCoke Energy

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

March 19, 2013

6:00PM

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Feb

890.00

915.00

6:00PM

US

Building permits

Thousands

Feb

904.00

923.00

3:00PM

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Feb

2.70

2.80

11:00AM

India

RBI Repo rate

Mar 19

7.75

7.50

11:00AM

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Mar 19

4.00

4.00

11:00AM

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

8:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

3:00PM

UK

Jobless claims change

11:30PM

US

6:00PM

US

2:00PM

Germany PMI Services

2:00PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

7:30PM

US

Existing home sales

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

7:30PM

US

New home sales

March 27, 2013

3:00PM

UK

GDP (YoY)

March 28, 2013

2:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

6:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

April 1, 2013

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

April 2, 2013

2:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

April 4, 2013

4:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

5:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

6:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

7:00AM

China

2:00PM

UK

4:29PM

March 20, 2013

March 21, 2013

March 26, 2013

April 5, 2013
April 9, 2013
April 10, 2013

April 12, 2013


April 15, 2013

Mar 19

6.75

6.50

Value

Mar A

(23.60)

(23.20)

% Change

Feb

(12.50)

(5.00)

FOMC rate decision

Mar 20

0.25

0.25

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Mar 16

332.00

343.50

Value

Mar A

54.70

55.00

Value

Mar A

50.30

50.50

Millions

Feb

4.92

5.00

S.A./ 1985=100

Mar

69.60

70.00

Thousands

Feb

437.00

425.00

% Change

4Q F

0.30

--

Thousands

Mar

(3.00)

--

% Change

4Q T

0.10

0.60

Value

Mar

50.10

--

Value

Mar

47.90

--

% Ratio

Apr 4

0.50

0.50

Apr 4

0.75

--

Thousands

Mar

236.00

--

Mar

7.70

--

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Mar

3.20

--

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Feb

(2.90)

--

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Mar

21.80

--

4:29PM

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Mar

2.60

--

4:29PM

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Mar

4.20

--

11:00AM

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Feb

2.40

--

6:00PM

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Mar

0.70

--

7:30AM

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Mar

10.30

--

12:00PM

India

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

% Change

Mar

6.84

--

7:30AM

China

Real GDP (YoY)

% Change

1Q

7.90

--

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends


10.0
(%)

(%)
11.2

6.0

(0.1)
(1.3)

7.6

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI


Mfg. PMI

58.0
7.6

Oct-12

Mar-12

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

(%)
7.5

(0.8) (0.5)

(0.7)

(2.0)

(2.8)

(4.0)

Feb-12

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

(2.0)

Sep-12

5.3 5.5 5.3


4.5

7.7

2.4

2.0

Aug-12

6.0

Jul-12

5.7

2.5

2.0

Jun-12

6.5

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

7.5

8.0

Services PMI

8.1
7.3

7.2

7.3
6.6

6.8

56.0
54.0
52.0

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

48.0
Feb-12

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

50.0

Mar-12

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

4.3

4.0

7.5

May-12

7.6

7.5

8.2

Apr-12

8.5

Source: CSO, Angel Research

9.0

8.4

8.0
9.2

9.0

1QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.50

Imports yoy growth

30.0

15.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

8.50

7.75

7.50

6.75

6.50

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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4.00

4.50

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

3.50

Apr-12

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

5.50

Mar-12

(30.0)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

(15.0)

Mar-12

0.0

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

123

2,398

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

17.6

15.2

3.7

3.2

22.6

22.5

1.7

1.5

United Phosphorus

Buy

124

170

5,499

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.3

7.3

1.2

1.1

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

266

323

4,538

2,983

3,477

16.1

16.1

18.5

21.6

14.4

12.3

4.1

3.2

32.9

29.1

1.5

1.3

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

87

97

4,385

13,066

14,503

11.5

11.8

13.0

14.5

6.7

6.0

1.3

1.1

21.0

19.4

0.5

0.5

Ashok Leyland

Buy

23

28

6,026

12,910

14,836

8.8

9.6

1.5

2.2

15.3

10.2

2.0

1.9

9.3

13.4

0.5

0.5

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

290

438

934

1,103

10.2

10.7

24.5

34.3

11.8

8.4

1.5

1.4

13.2

16.9

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,853

53,605

20,775

23,889

18.5

19.0

107.6

126.4

17.2

14.7

7.1

5.6

45.8

42.8

2.2

1.8

Bharat Forge

Accumulate

222

242

5,172

5,973

6,707

14.4

15.2

13.4

18.6

16.6

12.0

2.2

1.9

13.6

16.9

1.0

0.9

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,617

27,056

9,717

11,092

16.2

17.0

354.7

423.3

24.3

20.4

4.2

3.6

17.2

17.5

2.5

2.1

CEAT

Buy

98

163

334

4,822

5,403

8.2

8.3

29.8

40.8

3.3

2.4

0.4

0.4

14.5

17.0

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

131

11,110

6,016

7,026

12.7

14.4

5.8

7.8

22.4

16.7

3.3

2.9

15.4

18.2

1.5

1.3

FAG Bearings*

Accumulate

1,490

1,569

2,476

1,619

1,879

16.0

16.6

108.6

130.7

13.7

11.4

2.4

2.0

18.8

19.1

1.3

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,683

1,923

33,611

23,990

27,038

13.8

14.6

105.8

120.2

15.9

14.0

6.4

5.2

44.3

41.0

1.1

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

102

165

417

7,169

7,929

6.9

7.1

40.4

41.3

2.5

2.5

0.5

0.4

20.5

18.0

0.4

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

928

1,019

56,959

40,060

46,301

11.5

11.7

55.3

64.3

16.8

14.4

3.8

3.2

24.5

23.8

1.2

1.0

1,405

1,563

40,592

43,381

52,411

7.5

8.9

65.6

97.7

21.4

14.4

2.4

2.1

11.8

15.6

0.8

0.6

204

11,987

25,769

29,010

7.1

7.5

10.2

13.1

20.0

15.6

5.1

4.0

28.1

28.3

0.6

0.5

25

35

151

1,296

1,476

9.8

9.9

3.4

5.0

7.5

5.0

0.5

0.5

7.2

10.2

0.4

0.4

291

326

77,594 184,201 209,642

12.4

13.5

28.0

36.3

10.4

8.0

2.3

1.8

24.6

25.4

0.5

0.4

35

47

1,644

7,019

7,827

6.0

6.3

4.3

5.3

8.1

6.6

1.3

1.1

16.4

18.0

0.2

0.1

Sell

574

487

12,168

8,073

9,052

5.5

7.2

11.3

17.4

51.0

33.0

4.4

4.0

8.9

12.8

1.5

1.3

Neutral

202

1,460

3,412

4,104

13.0

11.6

24.6

26.2

8.2

7.7

1.2

1.1

30.7

25.7

0.8

0.7

BHEL

Neutral

198

48,475

47,801

43,757

18.0

17.1

24.1

20.8

8.2

9.5

2.4

2.1

32.9

23.6

0.9

1.0

Blue Star

Buy

170

238

1,525

2,748

2,896

4.4

5.6

6.8

9.3

25.0

18.2

3.4

3.0

14.5

17.6

0.7

0.6

Crompton Greaves

Buy

97

129

6,251

12,136

13,790

3.8

6.3

3.3

6.9

29.5

14.2

1.7

1.6

5.8

11.5

0.6

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Buy

33

49

267

2,802

3,074

9.5

9.8

7.7

10.9

4.2

3.0

0.4

0.3

9.6

12.1

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

54

75

1,391

6,909

7,723

6.2

7.2

5.4

8.4

10.1

6.4

1.2

1.0

17.0

22.8

0.3

0.3

LMW

Neutral

2,012

2,267

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.0

12.1

2.3

2.1

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

583

6,949

5,529

5,798

9.0

9.6

27.1

30.3

21.5

19.3

3.8

3.3

18.6

18.2

1.1

1.0

Maruti

Accumulate

Motherson Sumi

Neutral

Subros

Buy

Tata Motors

Accumulate

TVS Motor

Buy

ABB*
BGR Energy

Capital Goods

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Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,252

23,499

11,358

12,366

19.9

19.6

75.1

74.9

16.7

16.7

3.2

2.9

19.4

18.1

1.8

1.6

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

188

28,991

9,730

11,221

25.6

25.0

10.2

11.3

18.4

16.6

3.3

3.0

18.7

19.0

2.6

2.1

India Cements

Neutral

84

2,590

4,439

4,789

16.7

17.2

6.8

9.1

12.4

9.3

0.7

0.7

6.0

7.7

1.0

0.9

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

120

143

1,407

2,119

2,478

22.9

22.3

20.3

22.8

5.9

5.2

1.0

0.9

18.0

17.7

0.8

1.0

Madras Cements

Neutral

263

6,261

3,960

4,270

27.4

27.0

18.6

21.1

14.2

12.5

2.6

2.2

19.7

18.9

2.2

1.9

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,197

14,621

5,678

6,251

29.0

28.6

288.1

334.0

14.6

12.6

4.1

3.2

31.7

28.4

2.0

1.7

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,924

52,739

20,466

23,017

23.3

24.3

100.0

117.1

19.2

16.4

3.5

3.0

19.6

19.5

2.5

2.3

201

268

1,058

20,466

23,017

22.5

22.5

24.4

27.0

8.3

7.4

1.0

0.9

12.3

12.1

0.2

0.2

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

11

202

2,262

2,522

5.9

6.3

0.9

1.6

11.9

7.0

0.3

0.3

2.7

4.6

0.4

0.4

IRB Infra

Buy

122

164

4,040

3,843

4,212

43.1

43.6

16.8

17.8

7.2

6.8

1.2

1.1

18.3

17.0

3.2

3.5

ITNL

Accumulate

198

225

3,852

6,564

7,054

27.2

27.4

26.3

29.0

7.6

6.8

1.2

1.0

17.0

16.3

2.7

2.8

IVRCL Infra

Buy

25

35

773

3,773

6,706

6.9

8.4

(3.9)

2.9

(6.5)

8.8

0.4

0.4

(5.4)

4.1

0.9

0.6

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

74

97

16,477

14,243

16,382

26.2

26.1

3.2

4.3

23.2

17.1

1.2

1.2

5.4

7.0

2.6

2.4

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,507

1,788

92,708

60,666

69,525

10.6

11.2

71.9

85.0

21.0

17.7

3.3

2.9

14.5

15.2

1.7

1.5

Nagarjuna Const.

Accumulate

42

44

1,071

5,863

6,576

8.1

8.2

3.1

4.1

13.6

10.2

0.4

0.4

3.2

4.2

0.6

0.5

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

49

1,621

11,892

13,116

10.2

10.2

(0.4)

3.0

(114.5)

16.5

0.6

0.5

3.8

0.6

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

115

157

1,731

1,642

2,642

9.7

10.1

3.2

7.2

35.8

15.9

2.0

1.8

6.0

12.1

1.3

0.9

Simplex Infra

Buy

137

197

679

6,026

7,135

9.1

9.3

14.1

24.6

9.7

5.6

0.5

0.5

5.6

9.2

0.5

0.5

Unity Infra

Buy

32

58

233

2,180

2,455

13.7

13.4

12.9

14.8

2.4

2.1

0.3

0.3

12.1

12.5

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Buy

139

160

6,938

6,509

7,264

2.7

2.8

28.2

33.5

4.9

4.1

0.7

0.6

13.8

14.7

Andhra Bank

Neutral

99

5,537

4,795

5,475

3.0

3.0

21.8

21.9

4.5

4.5

0.8

0.7

15.4

13.8

Axis Bank

Buy

1,342

1,678

62,756

15,959

18,660

3.2

3.2

119.2

139.0

11.3

9.7

2.1

1.8

20.3

20.1

Bank of Baroda

Buy

720

850

29,613

14,889

17,393

2.5

2.6

108.2

134.0

6.7

5.4

1.0

0.9

15.3

16.7

Bank of India

Accumulate

324

350

19,283

12,793

14,823

2.3

2.4

49.5

65.1

6.5

5.0

0.9

0.8

13.6

16.0

Bank of Maharashtra

Accumulate

52

56

3,060

3,720

4,268

2.9

2.8

10.9

13.0

4.8

4.0

0.7

0.6

16.2

16.9

Canara Bank

Accumulate

433

463

19,173

10,783

12,000

2.1

2.3

64.8

82.2

6.7

5.3

0.9

0.8

13.2

15.0

Central Bank

Neutral

Corporation Bank

Buy

Dena Bank

Accumulate

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

74

5,425

7,158

8,217

2.4

2.6

13.1

20.1

5.6

3.7

0.8

0.7

10.3

14.3

398

465

5,902

4,919

5,634

2.1

2.2

96.7

99.9

4.1

4.0

0.7

0.6

16.3

14.9

94

107

3,292

3,090

3,462

2.7

2.7

25.6

24.6

3.7

3.8

0.7

0.6

19.2

15.9

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Federal Bank

Accumulate

490

536

8,371

2,667

2,920

3.2

3.2

49.1

51.4

10.0

9.5

1.3

1.2

13.9

13.1

HDFC

Neutral

817

126,115

7,446

8,923

3.5

3.5

32.2

38.5

25.4

21.2

5.2

4.6

35.4

32.6

HDFC Bank

Neutral

639

151,710

21,724

26,578

4.3

4.3

28.7

36.1

22.3

17.7

4.3

3.6

20.7

22.1

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,067

1,302

122,727

22,317

26,217

2.9

3.0

72.0

84.6

14.8

12.6

1.9

1.7

14.9

15.9

IDBI Bank

Buy

89

106

11,384

8,196

9,305

1.9

2.1

15.4

22.3

5.8

4.0

0.6

0.6

10.7

14.1

Indian Bank

Buy

178

208

7,652

5,716

6,362

3.2

3.2

37.7

41.1

4.7

4.3

0.8

0.7

16.9

16.2

IOB

Buy

71

85

5,663

7,231

8,369

2.4

2.5

10.2

20.2

6.9

3.5

0.6

0.5

7.4

13.4

J & K Bank

Accumulate

1,303

1,406

6,316

2,784

2,932

3.7

3.7

229.2

199.6

5.7

6.5

1.3

1.1

24.6

18.2

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

241

257

12,180

1,722

2,080

2.2

2.2

19.9

24.6

12.1

9.8

1.9

1.6

16.6

17.9

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

276

314

8,051

6,360

7,004

2.6

2.8

48.1

59.4

5.7

4.6

0.7

0.6

12.1

13.5

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

798

957

27,082

19,202

22,040

3.2

3.4

146.8

167.9

5.4

4.8

1.0

0.8

17.6

17.5

South Ind.Bank

Buy

25

30

3,279

1,583

1,789

3.0

2.9

3.5

4.1

7.1

6.1

1.2

1.0

19.1

17.7

St Bk of India

Accumulate

2,262

2,514

151,767

60,594

70,439

3.3

3.3

221.9

257.4

10.2

8.8

1.7

1.5

17.4

17.7

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

120

135

7,250

6,673

7,644

2.9

3.0

32.0

27.9

3.8

4.3

0.8

0.7

22.0

16.5

UCO Bank

Neutral

Union Bank

Accumulate

United Bank

61

4,025

5,388

6,262

2.4

2.6

9.0

14.9

6.7

4.1

0.9

0.7

9.1

13.8

233

256

12,836

10,006

11,558

2.8

2.8

36.4

47.0

6.4

5.0

0.9

0.8

14.6

16.6

Buy

60

75

2,166

3,549

3,814

2.5

2.7

12.0

21.4

5.0

2.8

0.5

0.4

10.1

16.3

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

52

2,557

2,342

2,763

1.9

2.1

8.0

10.9

6.5

4.7

0.7

0.6

10.1

12.6

Yes Bank

Accumulate

474

526

17,007

3,364

4,260

2.8

3.0

36.3

42.6

13.1

11.1

2.9

2.4

24.6

23.6

5,013

48,085

11,198

13,319

15.9

15.7

122.1

147.1

41.0

34.1

13.9

10.9

37.7

35.7

4.2

3.5

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Neutral

541

6,463

5,580

6,417

4.8

5.0

18.1

21.7

29.9

24.9

10.8

8.7

38.7

38.7

1.1

0.9

Colgate

Neutral

1,314

17,869

3,120

3,588

20.3

21.1

38.4

45.1

34.3

29.2

31.8

25.5

104.6

97.0

5.5

4.8

Dabur India

Neutral

137

23,904

6,196

7,183

16.3

16.8

4.5

5.5

30.4

25.0

12.6

9.8

43.4

44.0

3.9

3.3

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

4,200

17,664

3,084

3,617

15.2

16.3

103.9

123.0

40.4

34.2

13.0

10.7

34.9

34.3

5.3

4.5

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

747

25,431

6,386

7,743

15.7

17.0

20.8

27.1

35.9

27.6

7.7

6.3

23.7

26.4

4.2

3.4

HUL

Neutral

458

99,034

25,350

28,974

13.3

13.5

15.1

17.0

30.3

27.0

24.1

17.2

85.7

74.3

3.7

3.2

ITC

Neutral

302

238,344

29,148

34,191

35.7

36.1

9.4

11.1

32.2

27.2

10.7

8.9

35.9

35.7

7.9

6.7

Marico

Neutral

220

14,178

4,747

5,402

13.6

13.6

6.3

7.8

34.7

28.1

7.1

5.8

26.0

22.6

3.1

2.6

Nestle*

Neutral

4,709

45,403

8,302

9,739

22.0

21.5

110.7

130.8

42.6

36.0

25.3

18.1

69.5

58.6

5.5

4.6

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Accumulate

133

145

8,249

7,272

7,998

9.1

9.9

6.9

8.1

19.5

16.6

2.0

2.0

8.9

9.7

1.1

0.9

HCL Tech^

Neutral

792

55,011

25,325

28,476

21.7

20.7

51.0

52.8

15.5

15.0

4.1

3.4

26.8

22.9

2.1

1.8

Hexaware*

Buy

89

113

2,651

1,948

2,136

20.9

18.3

10.9

10.1

8.2

8.9

2.2

1.8

27.2

21.0

1.1

0.9

Infosys

Neutral

2,884

165,592

40,746

44,283

28.9

28.8

162.6

172.9

17.7

16.7

4.2

3.6

23.5

21.3

3.5

3.1

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

170

184

1,897

1,881

1,987

17.9

17.4

18.5

19.4

9.2

8.7

1.4

1.2

14.8

13.6

0.7

0.5

KPIT Cummins

Buy

105

134

2,018

2,234

2,477

15.8

15.2

10.9

12.8

9.6

8.2

2.1

1.6

22.2

20.6

0.9

0.7

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

130

15,280

7,711

8,683

21.6

20.3

8.7

11.3

14.9

11.5

3.5

2.7

30.6

23.7

1.6

1.3

Mindtree

Neutral

883

3,668

2,357

2,580

21.0

19.3

84.4

86.8

10.5

10.2

2.8

2.2

26.8

21.7

1.3

1.1

Mphasis&

Neutral

391

8,215

5,531

5,874

17.6

17.5

35.4

37.7

11.0

10.4

1.6

1.4

14.7

13.5

1.0

0.8

NIIT

Buy

22

36

357

1,048

1,161

9.1

10.9

4.1

6.2

5.2

3.5

0.5

0.5

10.3

14.1

0.2

0.1

Persistent

Neutral

570

2,280

1,297

1,433

25.6

24.1

46.5

54.0

12.3

10.6

2.3

1.9

18.5

18.0

1.4

1.2

TCS

Reduce

1,571

1,465

307,460

62,954

70,871

29.0

28.9

71.6

79.1

22.0

19.9

7.3

5.9

33.2

29.7

4.7

4.1

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

1,102

1,205

14,098

6,789

7,609

21.0

19.6

95.8

110.7

11.5

10.0

2.8

2.2

24.3

22.3

2.1

1.8

Wipro

Neutral

441

108,598

43,514

47,304

20.1

19.4

26.6

27.7

16.6

15.9

3.2

2.8

19.7

17.9

2.2

1.9

D B Corp

Accumulate

247

276

4,532

1,583

1,787

23.9

25.4

11.9

14.5

20.9

17.0

4.1

3.5

21.4

22.4

2.8

2.4

HT Media

Accumulate

102

113

2,404

2,061

2,205

14.0

15.1

6.6

7.9

15.4

13.0

1.5

1.4

10.3

11.0

0.8

0.7

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

98

125

3,103

1,511

1,698

23.2

23.4

6.4

7.3

15.2

13.4

3.8

3.4

25.9

26.6

2.2

1.9

PVR

Neutral

295

1,167

820

1,307

17.3

17.3

11.2

17.8

26.4

16.6

1.2

1.1

9.7

10.8

1.5

0.9

Sun TV Network

Neutral

445

17,547

1,942

2,237

77.2

75.5

17.6

19.1

25.3

23.3

6.1

5.5

25.8

25.2

8.6

7.4

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

461

10,436

10,746

13,982

30.8

31.1

43.3

55.5

10.6

8.3

1.1

1.0

11.4

12.6

3.1

2.4

Coal India

Buy

320

368

202,124

66,666

70,292

25.7

27.3

24.2

26.6

13.2

12.0

3.9

3.2

33.1

29.1

2.1

1.8

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

19

28

670

1,984

2,074

10.6

11.6

1.8

2.6

11.0

7.5

0.4

0.1

3.6

5.1

0.5

0.5

Hind. Zinc

Buy

119

149

50,387

12,002

13,759

49.7

50.8

14.7

16.4

8.1

7.3

1.6

1.3

21.1

19.8

2.3

1.6

Hindalco

Neutral

96

18,332

80,205

88,987

9.0

9.2

13.4

13.8

7.1

6.9

0.5

0.5

7.9

7.6

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

700

15,622

39,072

40,493

16.5

18.2

82.4

90.3

8.5

7.8

0.9

0.8

10.7

10.7

0.8

0.8

MOIL

Accumulate

230

246

3,869

933

954

46.9

45.5

25.8

26.1

8.9

8.8

1.4

1.3

16.7

15.1

1.7

1.6

Monnet Ispat

Buy

233

318

1,484

2,287

2,883

21.8

21.8

35.3

40.7

6.6

5.7

0.6

0.5

9.6

10.2

1.8

1.4

Nalco

Accumulate

40

46

10,399

6,630

8,357

11.4

14.5

2.1

3.3

19.0

12.4

0.9

0.8

4.6

6.9

0.9

0.8

NMDC

Buy

145

181

57,330

9,674

11,536

75.2

76.6

16.0

18.6

9.1

7.8

2.0

1.6

23.6

23.0

3.8

3.0

FMCG
Tata Global
IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Neutral

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

Sterlite Inds

Accumulate

Tata Steel

Buy

Sarda

Buy

112

148

402

1,442

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

38

52

510

Buy

90

112

Cairn India

Buy

293

GAIL

Neutral

324

ONGC

Accumulate

319

Reliance Industries

Neutral

844

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

275

3,528

3,707

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

263

3,686

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

147

179

65

Alembic Pharma

Neutral

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

Aventis*

Neutral

2,488

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

744

Cipla

Accumulate

384

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Buy

Ipca labs

Neutral

69

28,418

43,438

56,199

12.0

12.2

6.5

8.5

10.6

8.1

0.7

0.6

6.6

8.2

0.9

0.7

165

183

14,297

2,412

3,911

30.8

33.1

29.6

31.8

5.6

5.2

0.9

0.8

16.3

15.4

7.4

4.6

99

110

33,287

43,185

45,442

23.3

23.7

16.8

17.9

5.9

5.5

0.7

0.6

11.6

11.2

0.8

0.7

354

443

34,415 142,732 146,575

7.4

9.9

7.2

34.7

49.4

10.2

0.8

0.7

1.6

7.5

0.5

0.5

1,494

19.0

19.1

29.2

31.7

3.8

3.5

0.5

0.4

12.3

12.0

0.6

0.6

2,512

2,816

12.4

13.7

10.0

12.6

3.8

3.0

0.2

0.2

7.2

8.4

0.5

0.4

285

2,367

2,425

14.2

13.7

33.3

33.5

2.7

2.7

0.3

0.3

12.9

11.2

0.6

0.5

383

55,997

17,394

17,034

76.4

72.3

60.8

55.1

4.8

5.3

1.0

0.8

21.9

17.0

2.4

2.0

41,111

48,077

55,815

15.3

15.3

34.9

35.9

9.3

9.0

1.6

1.4

19.0

17.0

0.6

0.5

357

273,177 144,089 158,065

32.8

34.7

28.7

34.4

11.2

9.3

1.8

1.6

17.0

18.3

1.6

1.4

272,435 362,700 380,031

8.9

8.9

68.1

71.5

12.4

11.8

1.3

1.2

12.4

11.8

0.7

0.7

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

11.6

10.7

3.2

2.8

29.6

28.2

0.8

0.8

3,365

3,700

22.8

23.4

25.3

26.6

10.4

9.9

2.5

2.1

26.0

22.6

1.2

1.1

11,021

32,210

41,362

6.1

5.8

15.4

15.6

9.6

9.4

2.5

2.1

29.1

24.1

0.4

0.3

3,635

1,079

983

91.8

91.9

8.8

7.8

7.4

8.2

1.2

1.1

17.8

14.1

3.1

3.3

99

1,863

1,490

1,714

16.2

17.1

7.4

9.5

13.4

10.4

3.6

2.8

30.7

30.2

1.4

1.2

160

208

4,659

5,463

6,279

15.0

15.0

12.4

14.0

12.9

11.4

1.7

1.4

18.8

17.8

1.4

1.2

5,729

1,482

1,682

17.5

16.6

82.9

87.8

30.0

28.3

4.7

3.8

16.3

14.8

3.7

3.1

817

15,225

6,148

7,386

15.3

18.0

24.6

39.5

30.2

18.8

5.7

4.6

18.4

25.1

2.9

2.3

419

30,852

8,151

9,130

25.8

24.8

20.2

21.6

19.0

17.8

3.4

2.9

19.4

17.6

3.6

3.1

1,823

30,956

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

21.8

19.6

4.5

3.8

22.4

20.8

3.2

2.8

75

155

606

1,280

1,536

20.2

20.2

12.1

15.5

6.2

4.9

0.6

0.5

10.0

11.6

1.2

1.0

2,114

17,910

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

27.8

25.7

8.0

7.2

20.1

26.3

6.0

5.2

63

78

579

642

784

14.2

15.2

5.7

7.8

11.0

8.1

1.3

1.2

12.9

16.4

1.1

0.9

Accumulate

519

559

6,542

2,850

3,474

21.0

21.0

29.9

37.3

17.3

13.9

4.2

3.3

26.7

26.4

2.5

2.0

Lupin

Accumulate

610

655

27,288

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.1

31.1

23.4

19.6

5.4

4.4

25.8

24.7

3.4

2.8

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

439

18,559

12,253

11,400

14.1

12.5

31.2

21.6

14.1

20.3

4.5

3.9

37.9

20.6

1.5

1.5

Sun Pharma

Neutral

833

86,110

10,111

12,563

42.6

42.6

28.9

29.8

28.8

28.0

5.9

5.0

22.3

19.2

7.9

6.2

Neutral

75

1,135

1,502

1,535

32.1

31.9

11.4

12.5

6.6

6.0

0.8

0.7

7.6

11.9

1.2

1.0

Power
GIPCL

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Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Accumulate

146

163

120,301

72,809

81,951

23.4

24.1

12.2

13.6

12.0

10.7

1.5

1.3

12.2

12.5

2.3

2.2

DLF

Accumulate

273

288

46,332

7,953

9,699

34.7

37.0

4.4

6.0

62.4

45.7

1.8

1.7

3.1

3.8

7.9

6.2

MLIFE

Accumulate

404

446

1,648

786

888

26.3

26.7

31.0

36.3

13.0

11.1

1.3

1.2

10.1

10.8

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Accumulate

311

350

118,122

80,521

87,160

30.5

30.5

6.4

10.4

48.7

29.9

2.3

2.1

4.6

7.0

2.3

2.1

Idea Cellular

Neutral

112

37,161

22,087

23,927

26.6

27.7

2.9

3.9

38.4

28.7

2.6

2.4

6.9

8.4

2.3

2.0

Rcom

Neutral

67

13,746

21,087

22,067

31.8

31.9

2.6

4.0

25.4

16.6

0.4

0.4

1.5

2.2

2.4

2.2

13.1

13.5

79.0

90.8

17.0

14.8

3.7

3.1

23.7

22.8

1.2

1.1

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

Others
Abbott India

Buy

1,345

1,634

2,859

1,926

2,152

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

174

217

1,739

3,450

3,929

4.5

7.4

10.0

15.5

17.5

11.3

2.3

2.0

13.0

17.4

0.5

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Accumulate

457

495

579

460

596

16.4

16.2

34.7

45.0

13.2

10.2

3.2

2.5

27.7

27.8

1.3

1.1

Cravatex

Buy

350

545

90

272

308

7.2

7.3

37.5

45.4

9.3

7.7

2.2

1.8

23.7

22.7

0.4

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

901

6,330

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

26.3

22.5

11.9

9.5

50.9

46.9

6.0

5.1

Finolex Cables

Buy

46

61

707

2,268

2,559

9.5

10.0

9.0

10.1

5.2

4.6

0.8

0.7

14.8

14.6

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

378

550

492

2,027

2,299

4.6

5.1

35.3

50.0

10.7

7.6

0.4

0.4

3.9

5.3

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Accumulate

277

304

640

1,559

1,676

7.1

7.4

27.5

30.5

10.1

9.1

1.6

1.4

16.9

16.7

0.2

0.2

Greenply Industries

Sell

380

309

917

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

12.9

8.6

2.1

1.7

16.8

21.0

0.8

0.6

Hitachi

Neutral

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate

130

358

905

1,025

4.8

6.0

7.7

12.4

16.9

10.5

1.6

1.4

9.9

14.4

0.5

0.4

2,515

2,842

2,224

2,117

2,491

8.1

7.8

140.5

157.9

17.9

15.9

2.7

2.3

16.3

15.8

1.0

0.8

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

610

744

1,073

1,069

1,223

9.7

9.7

40.0

46.5

15.2

13.1

2.2

1.9

15.1

15.3

1.0

0.8

ITD Cementation

Buy

184

239

211

1,455

1,630

12.0

12.1

23.2

31.2

7.9

5.9

0.5

0.5

6.5

8.1

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

166

2,678

816

979

14.5

14.9

5.2

6.0

32.2

27.6

3.7

3.4

8.8

10.2

3.5

2.9

MCX

Buy

885

1,440

4,515

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

14.2

12.3

3.9

3.4

27.5

27.4

5.2

4.1

MRF

Accumulate

12,697

14,331

5,385

12,422

13,767

12.9

12.8 1,661.0 1,791.4

7.6

7.1

1.5

1.3

22.0

19.4

0.6

0.5

Page Industries

Neutral

3,304

3,686

856

1,047

19.1

19.6

101.2

127.3

32.7

26.0

16.7

12.4

58.5

54.9

4.4

3.6

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

631

887

758

989

1,148

10.7

11.7

41.8

55.5

15.1

11.4

3.4

2.7

25.5

26.3

0.9

0.8

Sintex Industries

Buy

57

79

1,782

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.2

3.6

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

262

332

246

1,048

1,157

11.3

12.0

58.7

66.5

4.5

4.0

0.8

0.7

18.9

18.3

0.5

0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

10

284

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.5

1.3

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

34

43

1,642

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

9.4

6.3

13.6

4.3

0.4

0.3

TAJ GVK

Buy

65

108

409

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.3

7.2

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.7

1.4

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

PER(x)
FY13E

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

0.7

0.7

15.7

14.7

0.3

0.2

17.5

19.1

0.7

0.6

Others
Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

309

379

476

782

818

16.5

17.0

61.8

65.4

5.0

4.7

TTK Healthcare

Buy

440

655

342

393

439

5.9

6.7

21.1

26.7

20.8

16.5

TVS Srichakra

Buy

United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India

Accumulate

193

276

148

1,461

1,591

5.6

7.1

6.9

39.4

27.9

4.9

1.1

0.9

3.8

20.6

0.3

0.3

1,958

25,608

10,473

11,939

15.0

15.8

30.4

56.9

64.4

34.4

4.9

3.1

10.8

12.3

3.1

2.4

325

355

660

591

623

17.5

17.2

29.0

29.6

11.2

11.0

1.7

1.5

16.0

14.5

0.9

0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 18, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 19, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

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