Trevor Craig ENSC110 Paper #2 11/27/11

This paper will address the societal and environmental issues associated with climate change. Climate change affects us all even if we are not seeing the immediate effects of it. Burning fossil fuels, inefficiency, bad business processes, and cars all affect our daily lives and the future for the world which we live in due to their effects on climate change. An ozone hole has been developing above the Antarctica, according to NASA, in 2006 from September 21-30 there was an average ozone hole size of 10.6 million square miles which is a new record size, and there was also a record for the largest hole size in one day at 11.4 million square miles, these holes are largely the cause of global warming. Many people doubt that global warming is a real thing, but the IPCC or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have release many publications on the subject which can be easily viewed from their website, which can be found on the sources page of this report, the IPPC has over 2500 scientists, more than 800 authors, and over 450 lead authors from more than 130 countries which all agree that global warming is a real problem that needs to be addressed. The main argument against global warming is that the earth naturally heats and cools, that is true but we are now pushing the temperatures of how much the earth natural cools and heats. This is easily seen when looking at the information in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4). The information shows that when we look at global temperatures expected of a natural cycle of the earths temperatures, the temperatures are much higher than the expected temperatures, but when we model our temperatures to include global

warming and affects from fossil fuels our models become very close to being correct. That proves that we are having an effect on the environment. Some people still say there is not enough information yet for them to believe in global warming and they blame the temperature differences on solar flares.

Look at the graph of solar energy and flairs released by Cambridge University Press in 2009 and look at the temperature for the global surface. As seen in the graph the solar energy has been following the same cycle as always, but the global surface temperature continues to rise. The sun has been monitored since 1978 and is found to have an 11 year cycle going both up and down in energy, but there is a .07% fluctuation in global surface temperature than normal, when based off the amount it should be from the suns energy, as seen in the graph above. Obviously global warming is real and we are affected the world we live in. What things are affecting our environment? One answer is fossil fuels, by burning so many fossil fuels we are increasing our chances of risks in our world which all affect us more or less depending on the region, but all affect us negatively. One risk from burning so many fossil

fuels is an increase in the amount of flooding. There has been an increase in rain and flooding all over the United States in the past few years; this can especially be observed by looking at a graph of where rain fall has changed, from the United States Global Change Research Program.

There has been an overall increase in the amount of rain that has been falling, and in the specific areas it is more than they can handle which sets new records for rain fall and unexpected flooding.

As seen in this graph again from the United States Global Change Research Program, we are expected to receive a change to very heavy precipitation, changing the climate and the way we live our everyday lives. When we receive a lot of rain there is flooding and it destroys peoples homes, farmers crops, and can bring communities to a standstill. These trends of more rain fall can be seen all over the United States and are expected to continue into the future. While there may be more rainfall in some parts of the country there are also extreme droughts in other parts of the country thanks to climate change. When there is an increase in CO2 there is an increase of temperature on the earth causing droughts in places that are no longer getting the same amount of water as they used too. Big increases of temperature can be seen in places like Texas which has just very recently gone through a very bad drought (2011). You can also see that the drought in Texas is right on track for the chart showing heat and drought increases, from the United States Global Change Research Program.

According to the United States Global Change Research Program The number of days with high temperatures above 90F is projected to increase throughout the country as illustrated in the maps on the left. Parts of the South that currently have about 60 days per year with temperatures over 90F are projected to

experience 150 or more days a year above 90F by the end of this century, under a higher emissions scenario. Our emissions are causing heat waves and droughts, and increases in rain other places; our natural weather cycle is beginning to fall apart. Hurricanes are becoming much worse; and we are seeing more intense storms when they hit land. The reason for such an increase in intensity of theses hurricanes is tied directly to an increase in sea temperatures due to global warming.

As we can see in the chart above from the United States Global Change Research Program the sea temperature has been dramatically increasing in the past few years, and with that increase we can see that the power dissipation index of hurricanes is also increasing following the same pattern as the sea temperature. This means that if we have warmer oceans due to global warming

we should expect an increased intensity of our hurricanes. These stronger hurricanes will cause more destruction and flooding, and may mess with our weather even more. One reason that hurricanes are also becoming worse is because of an increase in sea level. Sea levels rising might not sound like an alarming thing but in the long run it can be quite bad. If sea levels continue to rise we may see Florida and other coastal cities start to go underwater. According to United States Global Change Research Program Regional variations in relative sea-level rise are expected in the future. For example, assuming historical geological forces continue, a 2-foot rise in global sea level (which is within the range of recent estimates) by the end of this century would result in a relative sea-level rise of 2.3 feet at New York City, 2.9 feet at Hampton Roads, Virginia, 3.5 feet at Galveston, Texas, and 1 foot at Neah Bay in Washington state. Just think of what could happen in the centurys to come if we do nothing to stop global warming now. Sea levels are rising because of an increase in the amount of glaciers melting; the glaciers are melting because of an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. As seen in this graph by United States Global Change Research Program, you can see that the amount of ice in glaciers has dramatically decreased and is continuing to decrease, which is raising the seas, and may eventually cause an ice free artic.

Global warming and all the problems that come from global warming are caused primarily by burning fossil fuels. Unfortunately the Unites States is a great contributor to the amount of greenhouse gasses we are letting out. According to the United States Global Change Research Program With 4.5 percent of world's population, the United States is responsible for about 28 percent of the human-induced heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere today. There are four major carbon cycles, the atmosphere, the oceans, the land, and finally fossil fuels; carbon accounts for 50% of earths biomass. In the atmosphere there is about 805 GT of CO2 where in the oceans there is about 38000 GT of CO2, the oceans is where a lot of our CO2 goes instead of the atmosphere, but our oceans are filling up, according to Berkeley University and seen in the graph by them below.

As you can see in the graph as fossil fuel emissions go up the total atmospheric carbon emissions increase. We are filling our sinks that fill take CO2 so more of it is being released into the atmosphere in turn increasing global warming. This can be seen in the graph by Berkeley below.

If our sinks are filling up and our emissions are just continuing to increase, then global warming will continue to move faster and all of the negative consequences talked about earlier will be a part of our everyday lives.

So how are we going to fix this problem of global warming? Everyone can agree that global warming is a bad thing but no one wants to spend money on something that does not show a profit. Places like China are increasing their production and making their environment a horrible place to live, due to bad air pollution, and poor water quality; does this thought of moving forward in the world no matter the costs, even if the costs are the countries own citizens, add up? According to the World Resources Institute Industry accounts for two thirds of Chinas coal use industrial boilers alone consume 30 percent of Chinas coal. These boilers are usually highly inefficient and emit through low smoke stacks, contributing to much of Chinas groundlevel air pollution, especially small particulates and SO2. Inefficient and dirty boilers are particularly problematic because many of the industries that use them are located in densely populated metropolitan areas, placing populations in these areas at high risk of exposure. Since no one wants to potentially fall behind in this world contest, there needs to be a way to produce the same amount of goods and continue at our rapid pace while cutting down on global warming, the solution is highlighted in the quote above, make things more efficient. We can make everything more efficient and there are people working everyday too try and find ways of making everything more efficient. There are so many negative things that can happen if global warming continues, some which we will never know until it is already upon us. We can never plan for everything, so lets plan for what we can now and work on our efficiency and cut our emissions in whatever ways possible. This is our world lets take care of it and make it a place which we are proud of.

Sources China's Health and Environment: Air pollution and health effects. World Resources Institute, http://www.wri.org/publication/content/8416

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. 2009. US Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University. P.20. http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf

Gutro, Rob. 2006. NASA and NOAA Announce Ozone Hole is a Double Record Breaker. NASA. http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/ozone_record.html

National Climate Change. United States Global Change Research Program, http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/fullreport/national-climate-change

Publications and Data. IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

The Carbon Cycle. 2009. The Economics of Climate Change C 175. Berkeley, http://are.berkeley.edu/~chris/Lectures/ClimateChangeEconomics/Slides/1%20Climate%20Chan ge%20-%202%20Carbon%20Cycle.pdf