Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities Chana Black Pepper Turmeric Jeera Soybean Refine Soy Oil & CPO Sugar Kapas

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Currencies Weekly Performance

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (0.7) (1.0) (0.8) 1.4 1.4

0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.9 1.1

1.0
0.3 (0.2)

0.0 (0.5)
(1.0) (1.5) (0.2) (0.8) (1.2)

(1.2)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

*Weekly Performance for April contract; CPO and Mentha Oil March 2013 contract;

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Gold
Weekly Price Performance
Spot gold prices gained around 1 percent in the last week. The yellow metal touched a weekly high of $1616.36/oz and closed at $1607.95/oz in last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices gained by 1.1 percent on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.29676/10 gms on Friday after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 29889/10 gms in the last week. Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which attracted demand for safe haven. Cyprus parliament rejected the proposal for the levying taxes on bank deposits which led to concerns over the Euro Zone debt crisis along with unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone supported an upside in the prices. However, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) coupled with US Federal Reserve statement that it will continue with its bond buying program prevented further gains in the prices. In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as a result of European Finance Ministers agreeing a bailout package for Cyprus thereby affecting the safe haven demand for gold. However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the prices. Appreciation in Indian Rupee will add downside pressure in prices on MCX. Spot Gold : Support 1,595/1,575 Resistance 1,625/1645. (CMP: $1610.70) Sell MCX Gold April between 30000-30050, SL 30300, Target 29600 / 29550 (CMP - 29634)
1,690 1,670 1,650 1,630 1,610 1,590

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

31,500 1,800 31,000 1,750 30,500 30,000 29,500 29,000 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550

Factors that influenced upside in gold prices

MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10 gms

Comex Gold Futures - $/oz

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

84.0
83.5 83.0 82.5 82.0 81.5 81.0

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

80.5
80.0 79.5 79.0

1,570
1,550

Spot Gold -$/oz

US Dollar Index

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Silver

Weekly Price Performance

Spot silver declined 0.2 percent in the last week. The white metal prices touched a low of $28.53 /oz in the last week and closed at $28.67/oz in the last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices fell by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs. 54125/kg on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 53972/kg. Depreciation in the Indian rupee prevented sharp fall in prices. Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone coupled with Cyprus bailout issue. Additionally, strength in the DX, downside in base metals pack along with increase in US unemployment claims also exerted downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside was cushioned on the back of upside in gold prices, favorable home sales and manufacturing data from US, China along with rise in UKs retail sales. US Federal Reserve statement that it will continue with its bond buying program Depreciation in the Indian Rupee also prevented further fall. In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues fall in the gold prices. Further, downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of weakness in the DX coupled with upside in the base metals complex. In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add downside pressure on the prices on the MCX. Spot Silver: Support 28.30/27.50 Resistance 29.90/30.50. (CMP:28.83) Sell MCX Silver May between 55250-55350, SL 56450, Target 53500. (CMP:54163)
Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

60,000 59,000 33 32

58,000
57,000 56,000 55,000 54,000

32
31 31 30 30 29 29

Factors that influenced downside in silver prices

53,000

28

MCX- Near Month Silver Futures - Rs/ kg

Comex Silver Futures - $/oz

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5 83.0 82.5 82.0 81.5 81.0 80.5 80.0 79.5

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

28.0

79.0

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Copper

Weekly Price Performance

Copper prices fell by 1.2 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a weekly low of $7,486.25/tonne and closed at $7,668/tonne in the last tradingg session of the week. On the domestic front, prices declined by 1 percent and closed at Rs. 419.20/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs 411.90/kg in the last week. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented further fall in the prices. LME copper inventories gained around 7 percent in the last week and stood at 562,475 tonnes as on 22nd March, 2013 as against 525,825 tonnes as on 15th March, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai rose by 3.2 percent and stood at 239,273 tonnes for the week ending on 22nd March, 2013. Negative economic data from Euro zone coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, Cyprus bailout issue, weak global market sentiments along with rise in LME and Shanghai copper inventories exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of favorable manufacturing data from US and China and rise in US existing home sales data. Copper prices are expected to trade on a positive on the back of ease in the Euro Zone debt crisis, expectations of rise in durable goods orders along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped on account of rising inventories. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. LME Copper: Support 7500/7310 Resistance 7775/7900. (CMP: $7685.25) Buy MCX Copper April between 411-413, SL - 402, Target 430 / 432. (CMP:418.60)
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
8,400 8,300 8,200 8,100 8,000 7,900 7,800 7,700 7,600 7,500 7,400 455 450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410

Copper Inventories

LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
568000.00
518000.00 468000.00 8,400 8,300 8,200 8,100 8,000 7,900 7,800 7,700 7,600 7,500 7,400

Outlook

418000.00
368000.00 318000.00

Weekly Technical Levels

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Crude Oil

Weekly Price Performance

On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.3 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 0.6 percent on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5089/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5114./bbl in the last week. As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories declined unexpectedly by 1.31 million barrels to 382.70 million barrels for the week ending on 15th March 2013. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels to 222.80 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles dropped by 0.7 million barrels to 119.80 million barrels for the last week. Unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, cut in crude shipments from OPEC, favorable manufacturing data from US and China along with shut down of pipeline in Libya. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of decline in manufacturing data from Euro Zone coupled with fall in European economic sentiments. Strength in the DX also prevented sharp gains in the prices. We expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note as European Finance Ministers agreed on a bailout deal for Cyprus nations which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Weakness in the DX coupled with cut in crude shipments by OPEC and pipeline closure in Libya will also support an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped as a result of US consumer confidence expected to come on a negative note. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 92.10/91.20 Resistance 94.60/95.30 (CMP:94.21) Buy MCX Crude Oil April between 5035-5045, SL - 5020, Target 5140 / 5160 (CMP:5123)
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
5,300 5,250 5,200 5,150 5,100 5,050 5,000 4,950 4,900 98.0 97.0 96.0 95.0 94.0 93.0 92.0 91.0 90.0

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

Factors that influenced upside in crude oil prices

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl)

NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

384 382 380 378 376 374 372 370 368 366 364 362 360

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

DX/ INR Weekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week. The currency touched a weekly high of 83.315 and closed at 82.529 on Friday. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.6 percent on weekly basis. Factors that influenced upside movement in the DX Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, European Union giving ultimatum to Cyprus to seek the bailout of 5.8 billion Euros which the nation was struggling to agree thereby worsening the Euro Zone debt crisis also supported an upside in the currency. Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone also acted as a positive factor for the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable economic data from the US. Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.6 percent. The currency depreciated on the back of DMK withdrawing its support from the UPA government which created political uncertainty in the nation. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks. FII Inflows For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,546.80 crores ($1,384.39 million) as on 22nd March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.54,044.90 crores ($10,019.0 million) till 22nd March 2013. Outlook We expect Indian Rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of upbeat global market sentiments after ease in Euro Zone debt crisis coupled with weakness in the DX. However, expectations of negative fiscal deficit for the country can cap sharp gains. Weekly Technical Levels USD/INR MCX March Support 54.15/53.65 Resistance 55.05/55.50 (CMP: 54.50) US Dollar Index: Support 81.75/81.40 Resistance 82.85/83.20 (CMP: 82.20)
US Dollar Index
83.5 83.0 82.5 82.0 81.5 81.0 80.5 80.0 79.5 79.0

$/INR - Spot
56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5

54.0
53.5 53.0

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Euro

Weekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a low of 1.2843 in the last week and closed at 1.2985 against dollar on Friday.
1.365 1.355 1.345 1.335 1.325 1.315 1.305 1.295 1.285

Euro/$ - Spot

Factors that influenced downside movement in the Euro

ECB said it may cut the emergency fund to Cyprus bank after March 25 if a Cyprus does not come with a plan to ensure bank solvency. Further, unfavorable economic data from Euro region coupled with strength in the DX added downside pressure on the currency. German Ifo Business Climate declined by 0.7 points to 106.7-mark in March as against a rise of 107.4-level in February. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate was at -15-mark in March from previous fall of 11-level in the last month. The European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have agreed a aid package of 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) for the Cyprus nation. As per the agreement the Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB) will be shutdown and spilt. Bank of Cyprus will take over the assets of the closed bank along with 9 billion Euros in central bank which was provided for emergency liquidity aid. European Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.3 points to 46.6-level in present month with respect to increase of 47.9-mark in last month. European Flash Services PMI dropped by 0.8 points to 46.5-level in existing month when compared to 47.3-mark in February. We expect the Euro to trade on positive note due to ease in the regions debt crisis after the European Finance Minister agreed to provide aid to the Cyprus nation. Weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.285/1.275 Resistance 1.315/1.330 (CMP: 1.3035)

News

EURO/INR - Spot
73.0
72.5 72.0 71.5 71.0

Outlook

70.5
70.0

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Chana
Weekly Price Performance
Chana futures remained firm in the early part of the week on account of strong demand from the stockiest at lower levels. However, increasing arrival pressure led prices to decline towards the later part of the last week. On a weekly basis, Chana spot settled 1.5% lower while April futures declined by 0.6%. Arrivals of new crop from MP has gained momentum and thus prices have declined considerably in the last week due to supply pressure. However, prices may not fall below their MSP (Rs 3200 per qtl), as demand will emerge at such low levels. Also, farmers may not sell their produce below these levels. According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd February 2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month.

Increasing arrivals exerting downside pressure on prices

Bumper Chana output estimated for 2012-13 season

Chana imports declined in the month of February 2013

Outlook
Arrivals of chana may increase further once harvesting commences from the second largest producing state, Rajasthan. Increasing arrival pressure may keep chana prices under downside pressure. However, robust buying by the stockiest at lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices.
Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3380-3420, SL -3460, Target - 3310 / 3290

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Black Pepper
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper Futures traded on a positive note last week due to good demand for the Kerala pepper. Low stocks and delay in harvesting of the fresh crop also supported prices. However, higher arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka and lower overseas demand pressurised prices over the preceding two weeks. The Spot settled 1.15% lower while the Futures settled 0.59% higher w-o-w. Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,925/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn Averages daily arrivals stood at 18 tn while offtakes stood at 18 tn last week. According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn. According to market sources India exported 12,000 tn of pepper in 2012.
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

Global updates
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in 2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days. Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against 32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%. Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Good interstate demand for the Kerala pepper is likely to support prices. Low stocks coupled with lower supplies and lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, arrival pressure of the inferior quality crop from Karnataka may pressurise prices at higher levels. NCDEX Pepper Trend Sideways. S2- 34400, S1- 35200, R1- 36500, R2- 37000.

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Source: Reuters & Angel Research

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Turmeric

Weekly Price Performance

Turmeric Futures traded on a negative note last due to good supplies at higher levels. However, overseas as well as domestic demand supported prices at lower levlesfrom states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Kolkata. Lower output expectations for 2012-13 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported the prices. NCDEX has imposed 10% special margin on long side to curb the volatility. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year. The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them. Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode. According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.05% and 2.16% lower w-o-w. Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns. Turmeric may trade lower in the initial part of the week extending previous weeks losses. Higher supplies and an increase in the margin may also pressurise prices. Huge carryover stocks may also keep prices at check. However, prices may recover from lower levels due to good demand from the domestic as well as the overseas markets. Lower production estimates coupled with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at lower levels. Buy NCDEX Turmeric April between 6370-6430, SL -5950, Target - 7070 / 7160.
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Weekly Price Performance

Jeera traded on a negative note last week cutting short its three week gain due to higher arrivals of the new crop. However, export as well as domestic demand supported prices at lower levels. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 13. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.49% and 2.34% lower w-o-w. Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside. According to market sources, the exports target of 45,000 tn has already been achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn. Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days. According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets. Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f). Jeera may trade on a mixed note this week. Fresh overseas enquiries/ domestic demand may support prices. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at low prices. However, improvement in arrivals of the new crop may pressurise prices. Sell NCDEX Jeera April between 13370-13430, SL- 13980, Tgt- 12550/12450.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Jeera

Second consecutive year of higher output

Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

International Scenario

Outlook

Weekly Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Soybean
Weekly price performance
Soybean April Futures settled 4.5% higher w-o-w on account of lower supplies in the domestic markets coupled with firm international markets. CBOT Soybean settled 1% higher due to port congestion in Brazil causing delay in shipments.

Oilseeds output down 1.1% , soybean and mustard up 3.2% & 11.52%
According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean and mustard seed output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn and 7.36 lakh tn.
China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than market expectations of about 5 mn tn , due to severe port congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

China Soybean Imports Hit by Brazil Shipment Delays

US planting Intentions data on Thursday

USDA will release its planting intention data on 28th March 2013 and market expects for record U.S. soybean plantings in 2013-14. Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still up from the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012.
Soybean prices may trade with upward bias on dwindling supplies in the domestic markets. However, ongoing harvesting pressure in South America may cap sharp upside in the prices. It is crucial to keep close watch on US planting intention data to be released on Thursday. Higher than expected plantings may exert downside pressure on soy prices in the international and thereby Indian markets& vice a versa. Buy NCDEX Soybean April between 3530-3570, SL -3430, Target - 3725 / 3740

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex declined sharply taking cues from KLCE palm oil futures which gained on expectations of fall in inventories. Crude palm oil prices at MCX and KLCE settled 1.6% and 4.75% higher respectively While, Soy oil prices at NCDEX and CBOT gained 0.01% & 1.04% respectively w-o-w.

Global Scenario
Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn. However, after June prices will come under pressure as low palm oil production cycle ends Mistry. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 fell 7 percent to 1,055,914 tonnes compared with 1,134,872 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-25. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-10 rose 2.2 percent to 438,549 tonnes from 429,070 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-10.
India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes. Total stocks at the end of February rose around 12 percent from January to about 2 mn tn (estimates include both stocks at ports and pipeline). Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil April between 672-677, SL -660, Target - 695 / 699 Buy MCX CPO April between 457-462, SL -450, Target - 473 / 475

Domestic Scenario

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Sugar

Weekly Price Performance

NCDEX Sugar April futures declined 3.4% as the government deferred a decision on freeing up the tightly controlled industry amid mounting supplies. After witnessing gains in the past few weeks, Liffe sugar settled 2.3 percent lower last week on profit taking. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States, capped the upside potential in prices. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn. the country's sugar output in 2013-14 marketing year could decline to 22-23 million tonnes, as against 24.5-25 million tonnes this year. Pitching for decontrol of the sugar sector, Minister of State for Agriculture Tariq Anwar said the government will take "appropriate" decision on the issue. Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import policy . Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from December s projection of 7.8 mn tn in 2012-13. Although supplies continue to remain high in the domestic markets, we dont expect sugar prices to decline much from the current low levels considering the firm international markets. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower cane availability this season. NCDEX Sugar April Trend Sideways Support- 2850/2895, Resistance -2945/3000

Indias 2012-13 sugar output seen at 24.6 mln T

Govt will take 'appropriate' decision on sugar decontrol

Czarnikow widens forecast for 2012-13 sugar surplus

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Kapas/Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
After witnessing eight consecutive weekly gains, MCX Cotton futures declined sharply last week on reports state-run Cotton Corporation Of India (CCI) would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. MCX Cotton and NCDEX Kapas declined ICE Cotton futures posted its biggest weekly slide in nine months on reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve. lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013. In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade with downward bias on expectations supplies may increase in the open market. However, It is crucial to keep a close watch on US planting intentions which may have an impact on prices. A decline in cotton acreage may lead to un upside in the prices and vice a versa. Sell NCDEX KAPAS April between 950-960, SL -990, Target - 905 / 895

India to liquidate stocks from state reserves

India cotton imports seen lower than earlier estimate

China to offload stocks from reserves

US planting intention data to be released this week

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 25, 2013

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700 Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com