This summary sheet contains recommendations informed by the facts collated by the CfWI in close collaboration with specialty stakeholders. The references in this summary sheet refer to the reference section at the end of the fact sheet for this specialty, available at http://www.cfwi.org.uk/.
Recommendation
The CfWI recommends that no change is made to either the number of training posts or the current geographical distribution of training places over the next three years. Although no geographical changes are recommended, there is evidence of geographical inequality which may need addressing. Work should continue to improve the attractiveness of the specialty. There remain significant recruitment issues in this specialty and the CfWI recommends a deep review in 2012 with a further review of progress against these recommendations in 2013.
Introduction The purpose of this document is to make recommendations relating to medical training numbers in Paediatric Cardiology in England over the next three years. When formulating a recommendation, the CfWI considered factors including demography, lifestyle issues and the views of stakeholders. Key issues affecting the service are: Several service model options for surgical centres have been proposed, which vary in number and location (NHS Specialised Services, 2010). These may or may not have an effect upon workforce plans in the specialty. It has been proposed that the curriculum be formally extended to five years of training. Previously an optional one or two years in addition to mandatory training of three years was required (JRCPTB, 2010). Discussion on this continues. The Department of Health (DH) report from the Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Services Review Group recommended two consultants in Paediatric Cardiology per million population (DH 2003). Based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) population statistics for England in 2010 (ONS, 2010), this generates a need of 104 consultants. Key findings According to the NHS Information Centre Census for Health and Social Care (IC) there are 77 members of staff (75 full time equivalent), of which there are 59 males (59 per cent).
This is a relatively small specialty. Data taken from the IC census indicates that the workforce has a significant proportion of staff working in the 50-to-54 age bracket, and that there is a plentiful supply of younger members of staff.
College /specialty views At the time of publication, the CfWI fact sheet on the Paediatric Cardiology workforce, which has been used to form this recommendation, has not been confirmed by clinical representatives of the specialty.
Figure 1 shows cumulative, historical full-time equivalent (FTE) workforce supply and future consultant supply in 2010.
Figure 1: Historical workforce supply (FTE) and future consultant supply and estimation of the number of filled posts for service delivery Paediatric Cardiology
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Cumulative historical workforce supply (FTE) and future consultant supply & estimation of the number of future filled posts for service delivery - Paediatric Cardiology
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Staff, Specialty and Associate Specialist Grade (SSASG) Doctors Consultants (FTE) CfWI Supply Forecast Royal College estimation of the number of filled consultant posts to deliver service with forecast based on pop growth only Estimation of future number of consultant posts to deliver service due to population growth only (0.5% for 0 -59 yr olds)
2020
The charts show that the consultant workforce expanded by 82.9 per cent (considering FTE) from that of five years ago, based on the IC census (NHS IC, 2011a). The trend is reflected by middle-grade medical staff together with trainees (which are defined as those in the senior house officer and registrar groups). This supply forecast model suggests that the supply of consultants is forecast to increase to 112 FTE in 2020 (114 headcount) an FTE increase of 49.3 per cent. This is a small specialty. There is a large centre for cardiac care in London. Recommendation The CfWI recommends that no change is made to either the number of training posts or the current geographical distribution of training places over the next three years. The CfWI forecasts that the numbers of consultants will meet the current (2011) estimation of demand for the year 2011 in the year 2020. In the long term, there is potential for a bulge in retirements over a relatively short period of time when members of the current 50-to-54 age bracket approach retirement age. A key risk to the workforce is that while there is uncertainty surrounding the length of training, workforce planning is especially challenging, as the length of the pipeline of supply remains unclear. This may affect groups including employers and workforce planners in the short, medium and long term. It has recently been proposed that the specialty training pathway should be extended to five years of training for all trainees. In the past, it was possible for a trainee to undertake a threeyear course, with the option of extending their training in a special interest over an additional one or two years. Any move to a formally extended length of training in order to attain CCT for all trainees may have an effect on supply. A key risk in this recommendation is that it is automatically adopted for longer than it is intended to be valid. Because the specialty is small, workforce planning is important in order to enable adequate levels of supply. The CfWI recommends a deep review of this specialty in 2012 and a further review of progress against these recommendations in 2013.
PAEDIATRIC CARDIOLOGY
This fact sheet considers the factors influencing the future demands of the specialty (section 1) and the current and forecast workforce supply (section 2). This information forms part of the body of evidence used to advise recommendations on future medical training numbers. Conclusions and recommendations are in the accompanying summary sheet. The Centre for Workforce Intelligence (CfWI) welcomes contributions to both the content and interpretations of this information. This fact sheet covers the following: Section 1 - Considerations for future demand Current training route Specialty viewpoints Policy drivers Demographics Health and lifestyle Changes in practice Changes in activity Section 2 Current and forecast supply Existing workforce Recruitment Consultant projections
The CfWI conducted a series of stakeholder engagement meetings with representatives from each specialty. This report will use the term specialty representative to credit information presented during these meetings. Although in some cases the source is not explicitly named, this information is available on a case by case basis. Please contact the CfWI if more information is required.
1
The Department of Health report from the Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Services Review Group recommended two Paediatric Cardiology consultants per million of the population (DH 2003). Based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) population statistics for England in 2010 (ONS, 2010), this generates a need of 104 Paediatric Cardiology consultants. The NHS Information Centre (IC) census recorded 77 consultants (headcount) and 75 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) as at September 2010 (NHS IC, 2011a). Policy drivers The NHS Specialised Services review (NHS SS, 2010) reports on the pending review of services, which is likely to result in their reconfiguration. Several options for surgical centres have been proposed, varying in number and location. This is likely to drive changes in the Paediatric Cardiology workforce demand, as physicians follow up with patients after they have undergone surgery. The review comes in response to concerns that expertise is currently being spread too thinly across small surgical centres, which are at risk of closure. The review also considers additional demand coming from patients with adult congenital heart disease who have survived into adulthood and require further complex surgery. Demographics The charts in Figure 1 display the population age distribution for England for 2011 and 2031 according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) forecasts for both males (left chart) and females (right chart). Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from the NHS Information Centre (IC) for first attendance data (NHS IC, 2011b) were analysed to identify the age range(s) which appear to use the specialty the most. The shaded bars show the subgroups of the population which are more dependent on the specialty. The darkest shaded bars represent those that fall in the upper quartile (the top 25 per cent) of the most dependent parts of the population, when compared with the equivalent age bands of the overall population. The unshaded bars indicate the population percentage for that age group in 2031. Figure 1 indicates that, based on first attendance data, males aged 19 and under and females aged 30-34 and 19 and under are the patients who use the service provided by Paediatric Cardiology the most. Additionally the data suggests that males aged 20-29 and females aged 20-29 and 35-
49 also use the service, but to a lesser degree. Persons outside these age ranges do not appear to use the service on a regular basis and account for only occasional use.
Figure 1 2031 population estimate and indication of age and gender of the 2011 population using paediatric cardiology
85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0% 1%
85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
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Female high service use group 2011 Female population % & <1% service use 2011 Female population % & avg service use 2031 Female population % ONS forecast
Male high service use group 2011 Male population % & <1% service use 2011 Male population % & avg service use 2031 Male population % ONS forecast
Source: HES Data provides the specialty specific age range that is applicable to the population using paediatric cardiology (NHS IC, 2011b). Population statistics updated July 2008 (ONS, 2010).
Figure 1 indicates that the younger population is most reliant on Paediatric Cardiology and will drive the demand for those services. Service is also known to be delivered to patients of 20 and over, as paediatric cardiologists look after patients with adult congenital heart disease as a special interest. This age group is likely to require a growing level of service in the future, as more patients survive into adulthood. The graph shows that women aged 30 to 34 significantly rely on paediatric cardiologists; this could be due to the added pressure of pregnancy on the heart, which requires specialist attention. Health and lifestyle Congenital heart disease (CHD) The incidence of congenital heart disease in full-term live-born infants is between 4 and 9 per 1,000 in the UK. It is the most common congenital condition diagnosed in newborn babies. As children with CHD are now surviving to have children of their own, this contributes to the overall prevalence of CHD. The incidence of mothers with CHD having affected children is between 2.5 per cent and 18 per cent, and the incidence of fathers with CHD having affected children is between 1.5 per cent and 3 per cent. Both of these figures are significantly higher than for the general population. It is unusual for more than one child in the same family to have CHD. Additionally, there are some genetic conditions that are also associated with a higher incidence of CHD including Down's syndrome and Turner's syndrome. As more of these individuals survive into adulthood to have children of their own, the prevalence of CHD may increase. (Patient UK, 2011). Adult women with congenital heart disease may also require specialist attention when pregnant, as this places an increased pressure on the heart and increases the chance of complications. For healthy women, the risk of complications is 1 in 8000, whereas for women with CHD the chance is usually between 1 in 100 and 1 in 1000, but can be as high as 50 per cent. This is dependent on which category of risk a pregnant woman with CHD falls into, which is assessed on an individual basis (NHS Choices, 2009).
Changes in practice The Joint Royal College of Physicians Training Board (JRCPTB, 2010) has updated the training curriculum for Paediatric Cardiology to include the development of a new area of special interest in advanced echo cardiology. This has been introduced as a result of workplace needs and the duration of foetal training changing from 1 to 2 years. Previously, 3 years of general training was undertaken, followed by an optional 1-2 years of special interest training. There were difficulties entering special interest training and there was also feedback that the initial 3 years training was not adequate. The curriculum has therefore been changed to 5 years, with the first 3 years as core Paediatric Cardiology training, followed by 2 years of special interest training, to mirror the adult cardiology curriculum (JRCPTB, 2010). Workforce planning is therefore likely to be impacted by this change, as it now takes longer to complete a CCT. Further changes are likely in the near future, as there are trainees currently in the system who do not know whether they will choose to undertake a 3- or 5-year training programme, which makes workforce planning more difficult because the expected year of CCT completion cannot be predicted with certainty. Currently, trainees receive the same CCT whether they undertake 3 or 5 years training.
Figure 2a shows finished consultant episode (FCE) data for Paediatric Cardiology over five years up to 2009. It is assumed that the recording and definition of FCEs in this speciality has not changed significantly over this period, and therefore the rise in FCEs indicates an increase of activity in the speciality. It should be noted that the data in the chart does not represent all the activity in this speciality; outpatient data is not covered, which makes up a significant proportion of the Paediatric Cardiology service.
Year starting
Source: (NHS IC, 2011c) The data shows annual number of FCEs. FCEs were recorded in the tax year in which they finished, the date on the graph indicates the starting year for each tax year.
Potential sources of data include historic outpatient attendance data (see Figure 2b) that may highlight changing demand within the speciality. However, verification that the data is appropriate for workforce analysis needs to be undertaken.
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Outpatient attendances
Figure 2b: All outpatient attendances per year for paediatric cardiology
Outpatient appointments
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Outpatient attendances per year for Paediatric Cardiology using specialty codes 501, 502.
6000000
5000000 4000000 3000000
Figure 2b shows outpatient data for Paediatric Cardiology, which indicates an increase in outpatient attendances over recent years. Note: The main specialty is defined by HES as follows: Treatment specialty reflects the specialty under which the consultant with prime responsibility for the patient is working.
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1000000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Source: (NHS IC, 2011d) OAs were recorded in the tax year in which they occurred, the date on the graph indicates the starting year for each tax year.
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Figures 3a and b show that the highest proportion of staff falls into the 50-54 age bracket and that there is a strong supply of younger staff. Also, a number of consultants are working beyond typical retirement age. This suggests a possible impending retirement bulge. Vacancies and locum staff Data extracted via iView from Electronic Staff Records (ESR) for December 2010 (ESR, 2010), records that 5.9 per cent of the practising consultant workforce are locums (5 locums in total). The NHS Information Centre (IC) vacancy survey (March 2010) records a three-month vacancy rate of 0 per cent for paediatric cardiology consultants in England; the three-month vacancy rate for all paediatric consultants is also 0 per cent (NHS IC, 2011f). The CfWI acknowledges that this low vacancy rate could be due to Paediatric Cardiology being a small speciality, and trusts only offering posts when the post could realistically be recruited to. Geographical distribution Tables1a and 1b below show the geographical distribution of doctors and trainees in absolute values and in relation to the weighted capitation of each strategic health authority (SHA) (a definition of weighted capitation is given below*). Tables 1a and b suggest that, out of the ten SHAs, NHS London is over-capitated, i.e. the only area with a significantly greater proportion of Englands doctors in training and consultant-grade doctors than if provision were to follow weighted capitation. This indicates a skewed geographical distribution of the workforce. However due to the small numbers working in this specialty and the presence of large cardiac centres in London, it is to be expected that the workforce is not distributed according to weighted capitation. *The Department of Health uses a weighted capitation formula (WCAP) to distribute resources to primary care trusts (PCTs) based on the relative health needs of each PCTs catchment area (DH, 2011a). If qualified doctors and trainees were equitably distributed according to the formula, all other columns in Table 2b would be zero. Values greater than zero indicate that the SHA has more doctors than would be included by WCAP; values less than zero indicate that the SHA has fewer doctors than would be included by WCAP. However, the CfWI recognises that weighted capitation does not reflect that specialist services are not equally distributed throughout England. It is also important that all training posts are of high quality, and high-quality training placements may not be equally available across England.
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Tables 1a and b: a) Actual number of doctors by grade and SHA, across ten SHAs for Paediatric Cardiology, b) Number of FTE above or below that recommended by weighted capitation alone
Number of doctors (FTE) by grade and SHA, shown for Paediatric Cardiology - Based on IC census data for 2010 and deanery monitoring data for 2009 Table (a) SHA Weighted Capitation 5.80% 15.00% 10.70% 8.60% 11.00% 10.30% 14.20% 7.70% 6.80% 9.90% 100.00% Doctors in training 2 6 2 2 4 0 13 0 2 6 36 SSASG Consultant
Number of doctors (FTE) over or under the number recommended by weighted capitation alone Table (b) Doctors in training SSASG Consultant
North East North West Yorkshire & The Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East Coast South Central South West Total
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
5 7 10 3 7 0 30 0 8 6 75
0 1 -2 -1 0 -4 8 -3 -1 2
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 -4 2 -4 -1 -8 19 -6 3 -1
Source: Weighted capitation (DH, 2011b), Consultant/SSASG numbers (NHS IC, 2011a) and deanery monitoring (NHS IC, 2009). Note due to rounding sum of data may not match presented totals
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Recruitment The level of recruitment to further medical training is shown in Table 2. The table illustrates the situation at point of entry in 2010.
Table 2: 2010 Specialty Recruitment for Paediatric Cardiology at ST3
Deanery East Midlands East of England Kent, Surrey and Sussex London Mersey North West Northern Oxford Peninsula Severn West Midlands Wessex Yorkshire and the Humber Total
Given the small size of the speciality, the table shows the geographically uneven distribution of posts available. Out of the three available posts, the data suggests that none were accepted. For Paediatric Cardiology, recruitment is not carried out nationally, but by individual deaneries.
0 0% (avg.)
Source: (DH, 2010) Note: London recruitment includes recruitment to London, London/KSS and London/KSS/EoE.
15
Consultant projections The supply and forecast of doctors in Paediatric Cardiology is shown in Figures 4a and b. Historical data is taken from the NHS Information Centre medical census (NHS IC, 2011a). The objective of the medical workforce configuration data in Figures 4a and b is to show historically how the service has been delivered in Paediatric Cardiology with a combination of consultants, staff, specialty and associate specialist grade (SSASG) doctors, and trainee doctors (who may be in training towards another specialty, but are providing service in Paediatric Cardiology). The figures are based upon the latest data available (SSASG data dates back to 2005).
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Figures 4a: Historical workforce supply (HC) and future consultant supply and estimation of the number of filled posts for service delivery Paediatric Cardiology
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Cumulative historical workforce supply (FTE) and future consultant supply & estimation of the number of future filled posts for service delivery - Paediatric Cardiology
The charts show that the consultant workforce FTE expanded by 82.9 per cent from that of five years ago, based upon the Information Centre (IC) census (NHS IC, 2011a). It should be noted that this is a small speciality. The trend is reflected by middle-grade medical staff together with trainees (which are defined as those in the SHO and registrar groups).
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Staff, Specialty and Associate Specialist Grade (SSASG) Doctors Consultants (FTE) CfWI Supply Forecast Royal College estimation of the number of filled consultant posts to deliver service with forecast based on pop growth only Estimation of future number of consultant posts to deliver service due to population growth only (0.5% for 0 -59 yr olds)
Source: Historical Supply Data (NHS IC, 2011a), Supply forecast (ESR, 2010), (NHS IC, 2009) and workforce assumptions. Estimates of number of posts to achieve full service delivery use population projection (ONS, 2010) and RCP estimated number of posts to achieve full service delivery (2008).
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Figures 4b: Historical workforce supply (HC) and future consultant supply and estimation of the number of filled posts for service delivery Paediatric Cardiology
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Consultants (HC) CfWI Supply Forecast
This supply forecast model suggests that the supply of consultants is forecast to increase to 112 FTE in 2020 (114 headcount) an FTE increase of 49.3 per cent, based on the following assumptions: Total National Training Number (NTN) holders in training are split evenly across the higher specialty training years, and NTNs are recycled upon trainees gaining a CCT. All recycled NTNs are assumed to be filled in the next application process. Higher specialty training of 5 years (ST4 to ST8) after trainees complete core training (CT1-CT2) in core medical training and Level 1 paediatrics training (ST3). Every new CCT holder is assumed to start work as a consultant within the same year. The only source of joiners to the consultant workforce is through the training system. The modelling of this route takes into account the age of trainees, length of training, likely delays and attrition. The only leavers modelled are permanent leavers from the consultant workforce, e.g. retirements. A distribution of retirements is modelled which reflects the variation in age of retirement between consultants.
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REFERENCES
Department of Health (2003) Paediatric and congenital cardiac services review group. [online] Available at: http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_4070817. Department of Health (2010) Monitoring of Recruitment, October 2010, unpublished. Department of Health (2011a) Resource Allocation Weighted Capitation Formula (seventh edition). [online] Available at: http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/documents/digitalasset/dh_124947.pdf [Accessed 10th June 2011]. Department of Health (2011b) Weighted capitation values for 2011-12, 8 March 2011 on DH website. Electronic Staff Record (2010) Data Warehouse data extracted from NHS Information Centres iView, December 2010. Joint Royal College of Physicians Training Board (2010). Paediatric cardiology: Quick start curriculum guide.[online] Available at: http://www.jrcptb.org.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/2010%20curriculum%20guides/Quick%20Start%20guide%20to%20the%202010%20Paedi atric%20Cardiology%20curriculum.pdf. NHS Choices (2009) Congenital heart disease and pregnancy. [online] Available at: http://www.nhs.uk/Planners/pregnancycareplanner/Pages/Congenitalheartdisease.aspx . NHS Information Centre (2009) Deanery Monitoring Data 2009 as at 31 March 2009. [online] Available at: http://www.cfwi.org.uk/resources/data/deanery-monitoring-2009 [Accessed 2 June 2011]. NHS Information Centre (2011a) Medical and Dental Staff Census as at 30 September 2010. [online] Available at: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/webfiles/publications/010_Workforce/nhsstaff0010/Medical/Med_and_Den_Detailed_Results_Tables_2010.xls [Accessed June 2011].
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NHS Information Centre (2011b) Hospital Episode Statistics for England: Main specialty First Attendance for England 1998-2009. [online] Available at: http://www.hesonline.nhs.uk [Accessed May 2011]. NHS Information Centre (2011c) Hospital Episode Statistics for England. Main specialty Finished Consultant Episodes for England 1998-2009. [online] Available at: http://www.hesonline.nhs.uk. NHS Information Centre (2011d) Hospital Episode Statistics for England: Outpatient attendances (main specialty) 2003-2009 February 2011. [online] Available at: http://www.hesonline.nhs.uk. NHS Information Centre (2011e) Workforce data, consultant headcount and Full Time Equivalent breakdown by age band as of 30 September 2010. [online] Available at: https://iview.ic.nhs.uk/. NHS Information Centre (2011f) Vacancies Survey March 2010. [online] Available at: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/statistics-and-datacollections/workforce/nhs-and-gp-vacancies/nhs-vacancies-survey-england-31-march-2010. NHS Specialised Services (2010). Overview of safe and sustainable review of paediatric cardiac surgery services in England. [online] Available at: http://www.specialisedservices.nhs.uk/safe_sustainable/public-consultation-2011. Office for National Statistics (2010) 2008-based Sub national Population Projections by sex and quinary age; England and Government Office Regions. [online] Available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/snpp[Accessed June 2011]. Patient UK (2011) Congenital heart disease in children. [online] Available at: http://www.patient.co.uk/doctor/Congenital-Heart-Disease%28CHD%29-in-Children.htm. Royal College of Physicians (2008) Consultant physicians working with patients (4th edition). [online] Available at: http://bookshop.rcplondon.ac.uk/contents/7920ccc4-1b69-40ff-ab2a-3bbb383023a7.pdf [Accessed June 2011].
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