,
The equilibrium points are at
0 ) t , y ( f
dt
dy
System
Extn
trigger
response
Null-redundant
System
Primary Server
Secondary Server
Secondary Server
Secondary Server
response
Extn
trigger
Multi-redundant
System
EMBED Equation.3
Multiple equilibrium points. Some of them are stable
equilibriums, some unstable equilibriums, some limit
cycles.
Systems are often studied and approached through
simulation. Simulation is not a must, but helps as an aid .
0 y
time
y
unstable
stable
What is Simulation?
A Simulation is the imitation of the operation of
a real-world process or system over time.
Could be done by hand or on a computer.
Why simulation?
Granularity issue. How good is the estimated
system?
Involves generation of data & artificial
history of a system, observation of the data and
history, and inferences concerning the systems
profile.
How high is the level of confidence?
0
H
Proposed model (
?) version
Shall we accept or reject this at some level
+1 n
X
Number of customers the departing customer
at time n leaves in the system
=
'
+
0 X if A
1 X if A 1 X
n
n n
where A = arrivals during the service time of the
(n+1) the customer
Continuous system: state variable(s) change
continuously or smoothly over time.
Example: chemical level in a tank, electric
current
Server
Solution of a viscous fluid-flow may obey
(Hydrodynamic equation primarily known as
Navier-Stokes equation)
0 u
t
+
) .(
, ) . ( u p
1
u u
t
u
2
+ +
0 u p T K u
t
H
+
,
_
. ) .( .
A continuous model.
Types of Models
Time
Voltage across
capacitor plates
V
Models:
Physical: model home, model of a bridge, wax
model of a person
Mathematical (symbolic):
In Mathematica: Symbolic differentiation yields
In[1] =
] ], log[ ^ [ x a x 2 x D +
Out[1]=
) ln( a x x 2
x a
x
2
+ +
+
Simulation model
Static (at some point in time) vs. Dynamic (change
over time)
Deterministic (known inputs) vs. Stochastic
(random variables, inputs/outputs)
Also, another classification.
Analog vs. Digital
Analog
Good
o High bandwidth
o High resolution
o Specific control functions are available as off-
the-shelf ICs
o Analysis and design methods are well-known
Bad
o Temperature drift
o Component aging
o Sensitive to noise
o Hardware design
o Can implement simple designs only
o No communication capability
Digital
Good
o Programmable solution
o Less sensitive to environment
o Can implement advanced control algorithms
o Capable of self-tuning, adaptive control, and
nonlinear control functions
o Communication capability
Bad
o Data converter is required.
o Analysis and design methods are more complex
o Sampling & quantization error
o Computation delay limits the system bandwidth
Focus of this course:
Discrete vs. Continuous
Discrete, dynamic, and stochastic
Discrete-Event System Simulation
Modeling of systems in which the state variable
changes at a discrete set of points in time.
Methods: numerical instead of analytical
Analytical: deductive reasoning of math; accurate
Numerical: computational procedures; approximate
Simulation models are run rather than solved.
Observation of the real system, entities, interactions
Assumptions of the model
Collection of data
Analysis and estimation of system performance
Steps in a Simulation Study
Problem formulation
Setting of objectives and project plan
Model conceptualization
Data collection
Model translation
Verification
Validation
Experimental design
Production runs and analysis
More runs
Documentation and reporting
Implementation
Verification and Validation
The most important step in the process: validation
Validation should not be an isolated task that follows
model development, but rather an integral part of
model development.
Verification: Are we building the model right?
Is the model programmed correctly (input
parameters and logical structure)?
Validation: Are we building the right model?
Is the model an accurate representation of the real
system world process or system over time?
Iterative process of comparing the model to actual
system behavior and refine the model.
Model Building
Iterative process consisting of three main steps:
Observe the real system & the interactions of
components and collect data
Domain specific knowledge
Stakeholders: operators, technicians, engineers,
Construct a conceptual model
Assumptions or hypotheses on components and
parameter
values
Structure of the system
Translate the operational model to computer
recognizable form
An example. Simulation to observe movement of
radioactive particles in a densely packed medium. A lead
blanket of thickness d.
Model.
Upon hitting a nucleus, it can be
a. completely absorbed with a probability p
b. scattered with a probability (1-p) to a new site
If (b), move to the new site at a random direction , and a
random throw-length l in the direction of .
Net movement in the x-direction is
cos l x x
old new
+
In terms of this, picture the problem as
nucleus
l
x-direction
Jacket
Surely, whether a particle would escape the confine of a
jacket would be predicated by p, the capture probability.
What kind of behavior do we expect? What would be the
minimum jacket thickness to capture 95% or more of the
radiation?
Typical questions:
Should we treat incoming particles as independent
particles? Should how many be coming within next t
units of time depend on how many already entered?
Should we spice it up by assuming a max number of
collisions a particle can withstand?
References:
Th. Baeck: Evolutionary Algorithms in Theory and Practice: Genetic Algorithms,
Evolution Strategies, Evolutionary Programming, Oxford University Press, New York
1996.
D. Ballard: An Introduction to Natural Computation. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA,
1998.
J. Banks (Ed.): Handbook of Simulation. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998.
M. Berthold, D.J. Hand (Eds.): Intelligent Data Analysis. Springer, Berlin, 1999.
H. Bossel: Modeling and Simulation. Vieweg, Wiesbaden, 1994.
V. Cherkassky, F. Mulier: Learning from Data. Wiley, New York, 1998.
N.A. Kheir (Ed.): Systems Modeling and Computer Simulation. Marcel Dekker, New
York, 1988.
A.M. Law, W.D. Kelton: Simulation Modeling & Analysis. McGraw Hill, New York,
1991.
H.-O. Peitgen, H. Juergens, D. Saupe: Chaos and Fractals. Springer, New York 1992.
S.S. Rao: Engineering Optimization: Theory and Practice. Wiley, New York 1996.
M. Schroeder: Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws. W.H. Freeman and Company, New York
1991.
H.-P. Schwefel: Evolution and Optimum Seeking. Wiley, New York, 1995.
A. G. Wilson: Catastrophe Theory and Bifurcation. Groom Helm Ltd., London, 1981.