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Monthly Update | March 2013

April 3, 2013

Automobile Sector
Slowdown continues
Domestic automotive sales continued to slide in the month of March 2013, following a weak macro-economic environment, which continues to suppress overall demand. The weakness persisted across all the segments, resulting in a negative volume growth for our OEM coverage universe, with the only exception being Mahindra & Mahindra. The impact of the slowdown continues to be prominent in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV), tractor, passenger car, and two-wheeler segments. Of late, sales in the utility vehicle (UV) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments too have started to taper off on a higher base of the corresponding previous year period. Going ahead, we expect volume growth to remain sluggish in 1HFY2014 due to high inventory levels and weak consumer sentiments. Nonetheless, we expect volumes to recover in 2HFY2014 led by further easing of interest rates, festival demand and also due to favorable base effect. Tata Motors (TTMT) continued its downward trend (down 27.6% yoy), led by severe weakness in the domestic (down 27.2% yoy) and export (down 33.8% mom) volumes. On a mom basis though, sales surged 17.3%, mainly due to attractive incentives offered by the company in the passenger (up 16.7% mom) and commercial vehicle (up 17.4% mom) segments. While the LCV segment sustained its strong sales momentum, posting a growth of 12.5% yoy (12.2% mom); the MHCV and passenger vehicle (PV) segments reported a decline of 33.2% and 65.7% yoy respectively. Ashok Leyland (AL) reported in-line volumes (up 39.6% mom), driven by Dost sales, which registered a strong growth of 44.1% mom. Total volumes however, registered a decline of 1.9% yoy on account of weakness in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment, which declined by 19.7% yoy. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported in-line volumes, primarily driven by growth in the Super Compact (up 22% yoy and 9.6% mom) and UV (up 8.9% mom) segments led by Dzire and Ertiga, respectively. While total volumes registered a strong 9.5% mom growth, driven by a strong performance across segments; on a yoy basis volumes declined 4.8%, largely due to slowdown in demand for entry level cars. Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) reported an in-line volume growth of 7.7% yoy (10.4% mom), driven primarily by a 10.6% yoy (8.5% mom) growth in the automotive segment. The automotive segment growth was led by continued momentum in the PV segment (up 12.6% yoy), driven by the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton, and a strong growth of 17.1% yoy (13.5% mom) in the pick-up segment. The farm-equipment segment though reported a 0.3% yoy decline, which was in-line with our estimates, on account of a 2.3% yoy decline in domestic sales. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler manufacturers in our coverage universe reported a disappointing performance yet again, led by sluggish demand on the back of weak consumer sentiments. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered a steep decline of 10.2% yoy (9.4% mom) as domestic volumes posted a significant decline of 12.3% yoy. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) posted extremely poor volumes with total sales registering a decline of 11.4% yoy (6.6% mom), due to slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry. TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes (a decline of 8.2% yoy), primarily on account of continued slowdown in the two-wheeler segment (down 9.9% yoy).
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Yaresh Kothari
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Tata Motors
TTMT continued its downward slide led by severe weakness in PV and MHCV sales

TTMT registered slightly better-than-expected sales for March 2013, driven by record sales in the LCV segment (sustained its strong momentum and registered a growth of 12.5% yoy and 12.2% mom). On a mom basis, sales surged 17.3%, mainly due to attractive incentives offered by the company in the passenger (up 16.7% mom) and commercial vehicle (up 17.4% mom) segments. On a yoy basis however, total volumes declined by 27.6% yoy to 72,712 units, on account of a 27.2% and 33.8% yoy decline in the domestic and export volumes respectively. PV sales continued to remain subdued and registered a decline of 65.7% yoy, with passenger cars registering a decline of 69.6% yoy. CV sales too remained sluggish (down 4.4% yoy), on account of declining MHCV sales.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors Sales trend


Segment Total sales MHCV LCV CV Utility vehicles Cars PV Exports
Source: Company, Angel Research

March 2013 72,712 15,416 44,256 59,672 3,594 9,446 13,040 3,552

March % chg 2012 100,414 (27.6) 23,088 (33.2) 39,348 62,436 12.5 (4.4)

FY2013 810,086 152,505 428,643 581,148 48,583 180,355 228,938 50,831

FY2012 % chg 906,579 (10.6) 221,297 (31.1) 363,890 585,187 17.8 (0.7)

6,914 (48.0) 31,064 (69.6) 37,978 (65.7) 5,367 (33.8)

56,138 (13.5) 265,254 (32.0) 321,392 (28.8) 63,078 (19.4)

Exhibit 2: Domestic CV segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Jul-11 Nov-11 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-12 Jan-13 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

April 3, 2013

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 3: Domestic PV segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jul-11 Jul-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Nov-11 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-12 Jan-13 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Ashok Leyland
CV sales continue to remain under pressure led by slowdown in the industrial activity

AL reported in-line volumes (up 39.6% mom) in March 2013 with Dost volumes registering a strong mom growth of 44.1%. MHCV sales too posted a strong growth of 37.7% mom, probably on account of higher dispatches to the dealers. The total volumes however, registered a decline of 1.9% yoy, due to weakness in the CV segment, which declined by 19.7% yoy. Exports too recorded a decline of 47.1% yoy during the month.

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland Sales trend


March 2013 Total sales CV (ex. Dost) Dost 14,020 9,695 4,325 March 2012 14,285 12,074 2,211 % chg (1.9) (19.7) 95.6 FY2013 114,706 79,788 34,918 FY2012 102,145 94,552 7,593 % chg 12.3 (15.6) 359.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

April 3, 2013

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 5: CV segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Maruti Suzuki
MSIL registered in-line performance led by the new launches, Dzire and Ertiga

MSIL reported in-line volumes, primarily driven by growth in the Super Compact (up 22% yoy and 9.6% mom) and UV (up 8.9% mom) segments, led by Dzire and Ertiga respectively. Total volumes for the month registered a decline of 4.8% yoy to 119,937 units largely due to slowdown in demand for entry levels cars and vans. As a result, the Mini and Vans segments witnessed a steep decline of 14.7% yoy and 23.6% yoy respectively. Export volumes too registered a decline of 8.9% yoy as demand in key export markets continues to remain weak. However, on a sequential basis, total volumes rose by a strong 9.5%, driven by a strong performance across segments.

Exhibit 6: Maruti Suzuki Sales trend


Segment Total sales A: Mini: M800, A-star, Alto, Wagon R A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz A: Super Compact: Dzire A: Mid-size: SX4 A: Executive: Kizashi Total passenger vehicles B: UV - Gypsy, Grand Vitara, Ertiga C: Vans: Omni, Eeco Total domestic sales Total exports March March 2013 2012 119,937 125,952 45,047 25,868 20,078 903 0 91,896 6,488 9,506 12,047 52,826 27,913 16,451 1,520 48 98,758 1,530 12,436 13,228 % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg 3.3 (12.6) 8.3 54.0 (62.7) (59.0) 0.7 (4.8) 1,171,434 1,133,695 (14.7) (7.3) 22.0 (40.6) (100.0) (6.9) 324.1 (23.6) (8.9) 429,569 255,302 169,571 6,707 188 861,337 79,192 110,517 120,388 491,389 235,754 110,132 17,997 458 855,730

6,525 1,113.7 144,061 127,379 (23.3) 4.4 (5.5)

107,890 112,724

(4.3) 1,051,046 1,006,316

Source: Company, Angel Research

April 3, 2013

Mar-13

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 7: Total volumes - Monthly sales trend


(units) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra & Mahindra


MM registered in-line performance; tractor demand continues to remain weak; utility vehicle sales likely to remain under pressure on account of hike in excise duty and following intense competition

MM reported an in-line volume growth of 7.7% yoy (10.4% mom) to 69,234 units, driven primarily by a strong 10.6% yoy (8.5% mom) growth in the automotive segment. The automotive segment growth was driven by continued momentum in the PV segment (up 12.6% yoy and 10.4% mom) on the back of the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton, and a strong growth of 17.1% yoy (13.5% mom) in the pick-up segment. The three-wheeler (down 5.1% yoy) and export (flat yoy) segments however, witnessed sluggish growth during the month. In the tractor segment, MM reported a 0.3% yoy decline in volumes, which was in-line with our estimates, led by a 2.3% yoy decline in domestic sales. According to the Management, high interest rates and fuel prices continue to impact consumer sentiments, thereby affecting overall demand.

Exhibit 8: Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trend


Segment Total sales Passenger vehicles Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) LCV/MHCV Exports Total automotive sales Tractor sales Domestic Tractor sales Exports Total tractor sales
Source: Company, Angel Research

March 2013 69,234 25,847 17,212 4,831 1,335 2,679 51,904 15,551 1,779 17,330

March % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg 2012 64,294 7.7 787,257 718,586 9.6 22,961 14,696 5,089 2,659 46,919 15,920 1,455 17,375 12.6 279,274 220,056 17.1 174,233 152,673 (5.1) 0.8 65,510 11,902 32,456 67,440 29,177 26.9 14.1 (2.9) 11.2 16.6 (4.6) (4.9)

1,514 (11.8)

13,818 (13.9)

10.6 563,375 483,164 (2.3) 211,596 221,730 22.3 12,286 (0.3) 223,882 235,422

13,692 (10.3)

April 3, 2013

Mar-13

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 9: PV segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Tractor segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jul-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported disappointing sales performance due to weak consumer sentiments in the domestic market

BJAUT registered extremely weak volumes, with performance across segments being sluggish. Total volumes registered a steep decline of 10.2% yoy (9.4% mom) to 301,231 units, as domestic volumes posted a significant decline of 12.3% yoy. While motorcycle sales declined by 11.2% yoy (8.3% mom), three-wheeler sales reported a decline of 1.4% yoy (16.8% mom). Export volumes too registered a decline of 5.9% yoy (25% mom), primarily on account of ~20,000 units being in transit. These would be reflected in sales in the month of April.

April 3, 2013

Mar-13

Mar-13

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 11: Bajaj Auto Sales trend


Segment Total sales Motorcycles Three-wheelers Exports (included above) March 2013 301,231 267,037 34,194 101,374 March % chg FY2013 FY2012 % chg 2012 335,515 (10.2) 4,237,162 4,349,560 (2.6) 300,848 (11.2) 3,757,105 3,834,405 34,667 107,691 (1.4) 480,057 515,155 (5.9) 1,547,157 1,579,824 (2.0) (6.8) (2.1)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0)

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jul-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Hero MotoCorp
HMCL posted lower-than-expected performance led by slowdown in the domestic motorcycle industry

HMCL reported extremely poor volumes for the month with total sales registering a decline of 11.4% yoy (6.6% mom) to 468,283 units. According to the companys Management, the performance continues to be impacted by the ongoing slowdown in the industry, which in turn is due to the prevailing weak macro environment, higher fuel prices and negative consumer sentiments.

April 3, 2013

Mar-13

Mar-13

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 14: Hero MotoCorp Sales trend


March 2013 Total sales 468,283
Source: Company, Angel Research

March % chg 2012

FY2013

FY2012

% chg (2.6)

528,290 (11.4) 6,073,581 6,235,195

Exhibit 15: HMCL Monthly sales trend


(units) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jul-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Motor
TVSLs performance continues to be impacted by the on-going slowdown and rising competition in the industry

TVSL reported lower-than-expected volumes, which declined by 8.2% yoy (flat mom) to 167,583 units. The weakness can be attributed to the continued slowdown in the two-wheeler segment (down 9.9% yoy) on account of a 6.3% (flat mom) and 25.7% yoy (4.4% mom) decline in motorcycle and scooter sales respectively. Three-wheeler sales however, maintained strong momentum and posted an impressive growth of 125.3% yoy (5.7% mom), driven by exports. The overall exports registered a strong growth of 12.8% yoy (6.6% mom), largely on account of strong growth in three-wheeler sales. The companys Management expects export volumes to touch a monthly run-rate of 28,00030,000 units within the next six months.

April 3, 2013

Mar-13

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Exhibit 16: TVS Motor Sales trend


Segment Total sales Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total two-wheelers Three-wheelers Exports (included above) March 2013 167,583 61,808 29,261 71,438 162,507 5,076 23,342 March % chg FY2013 FY2012 2012 182,527 (8.2) 2,032,515 2,198,493 65,994 74,885 180,274 20,690 (6.3) (4.6) 749,973 441,634 792,069 48,839 245,628 843,338 529,095 785,942 40,118 288,442 39,395 (25.7) % chg (7.5) (11.1) (16.5) 0.8 (8.1) 21.7 (14.8)

(9.9) 1,983,676 2,158,375 12.8

2,253 125.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 17: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 18: Scooter segment Monthly sales trend


(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

April 3, 2013

Mar-13

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Outlook
While the near-term environment continues to remain challenging for the automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance, remain intact. We continue to prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors.

Exhibit 19: Relative valuation and recommendation


Companies AL BJAUT HMCL MSIL MM TTMT* TVSL Reco. Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy CMP (`) 22 TP (`) 27 Sales (`cr) FY14E 13,833 22,552 25,351 48,078 44,550 7,714 16,192 25,498 28,047 55,133 50,260 8,532 P/E (x) 11.3 14.4 14.4 14.9 14.2 8.0 7.1 8.4 12.6 10.7 12.7 12.4 6.6 5.9 P/BV (x) 1.9 5.2 4.9 2.0 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.7 4.1 3.9 1.7 2.5 1.4 1.0 RoE (%) 12.1 40.2 36.7 14.1 22.3 23.1 16.5 15.2 36.6 40.4 14.6 21.6 23.1 17.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 9.4 6.8 6.9 7.5 3.7 2.3 4.4 7.8 5.9 5.5 6.1 3.1 1.7 FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY12-15E EPS CAGR (%) 8.1 6.6 5.6 22.0 13.5 3.2 3.3

1,692 2,014 1,499 1,824 1,306 1,543 845 1,006 258 34 40

324 206,992 227,679

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on April 3, 2013; *Consolidated financials

April 3, 2013

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Auto Sector Update | March 2013

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement


Analyst ownership of the stock Ashok Leyland Tata Motors Maruti Suzuki Mahindra & Mahindra Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motor No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

April 3, 2013

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Auto Sector Update | March 2013

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