Climate Change, Hurricane Sandy, and Impacts on Coastal New Jersey

Michael J. Kennish Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Rutgers University

Coastal NJ

Marsh edge transfer

Coastal Damage
Storm Surge (Hybrid) Flooding Beach/Dune Loss Infrastructure Damage Back-Bay Flooding Back-Bay Filling Shoreline Erosion Sea-Level Rise

Low Elevation

High Population

Shoreline Defense

Atlantic City

Beach and Dune Construction

Dune Buffer

Seawall

Dune Restoration

Migration

Atlantic Ocean
95/97 DOQQ courtesy of NJDEP Illustration created by Jeffrey Pace, Rutgers Coastal Geomorphology Group

Sea Level Rise Bayside Vulnerability

Psuty, May, 2011

Marsh Edge Loss

MARSH DYNAMICS

Accretion = 0.18-0.30 cm/yr Sea-Level Rise = 0.10-0.24 cm/yr

Modified Shoreline Habitat Degraded Wetland

Accelerated Fringe Erosion Open Water Habitat Expansion

REGIONAL FACTORS

SUBSIDENCE ISOSTATIC ADJUSTMENT SEDIMENT COMPACTION

Modified Shoreline Habitat Degraded Wetland

Accelerated Fringe Erosion Open Water Habitat Expansion

Observed Change Oceans Beaches

Ocean Temperature Increase Down to 3000 m

Global Sea Level Rise 1.8 mm/yr during 20th century 3.2 mm/yr during 2000-2010 3.3 mm/yr current rate of sea level rise Geographic Variability in the Rate of Sea Level Rise

Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?

Thermal Expansion
Warmer water is less dense than colder water

Melting of Glaciers Valley glaciers Ice sheets

Global mean sea level changes

The Greenhouse Effect

The burning of fossil fuels and forests increases CO2 in the atmosphere. Increases in CO2 cause more heat to be trapped in the earth's atmosphere. As a result, global temperatures are rising. Warmer temperatures raise sea levels (by melting more ice) and decrease agriculture output (by affecting weather patterns).

Deforestation
Clearing Tropical Rain Forests Increases Atmospheric CO2 Accelerating Greenhouse Effect

Global surface temperature since 1880

C

Green bars show 95% confidence intervals

Hottest years on record have occurred during the past decade

Where we have been

Past century of NJ climate variability

Warmer More Precipitation Warmer More Evaporation

HURRICANE MITCH 1998 HURRICANE MITCH

More floods and droughts?

Spruce Run Reservoir: March 2002 Easton-Phillipsburg Bridge: June 2006

Delaware River: Sept. 2004

Sometimes too much

Bound Brook

Manville

Nor'easter April 15-16, 2007

River Vale

Sheet Dominates Land Ice in the Arctic

Over past two decades, Totalthe Melting Would theSea melt Level area on the m Raise 6-7 Greenland ice sheet has increased on average by about 0.7%/year (or about Antarctic Melting 20% from 1979 to 2005).

Greenland Ice Sheet Significant Melting The Greenland Ice 1979 - 2012

60-70 m

Source: Business Week Aug. 2004

Greenland (10.8% of Global Ice) 3 km thick 1.7 million square kilometers 2.6 million cubic meters (volume) 286 GT/yr (melting rate) Antarctic (84.6% of Global Ice) 5 km thick ~14 million square kilometers ~30 million cubic meters (volume) 246 GT/yr (melting rate)

Impact of Sea Level Rise on New Jersey

Cooper, Beevers, and Oppenheimer 2005

Sustainable Development?

The End