Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 12, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 12, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Unemployment Claims declined to 346,000 for the w/e 5th April. German Final CPI unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of March. US Import Prices declined by 0.5 percent in the last month. French CPI increased by 0.8 percent in a month earlier. Asian Markets are trading on a mixed note on the back of favorable US economic data in yesterdays trade but strength in th e Japanese Yen added downside pressure on the markets. US Unemployment Claims declined by 42,000 to 346,000 for the week th ending 5 April as against a rise of 388,000 in prior week. Import Prices declined by 0.5 percent in March from earlier rise of 0.6 percent in February. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable US jobless claims data also acted as a negative factor for the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which also exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.14 and closed at 82.33 on Thursday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent on Wednesday. The currency appreciated on account of selling dollars from exporters and banks. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of strength in the DX coupled with outflow of foreign funds. The currency touched an intra-day high of 54.39 and closed at 54.41 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.206.50 crores th ($37.29 million) as on 10 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.55,415.90 crores ($10,272.80 million) till 10 April 2013. Japans Tertiary Industry Activity increased by 1.1 percent in February as against a decline of 1.5 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.3 Prev day 0.2

as on 11 April, 2013 w-o-w 1.1 m-o-m -0.2 y-o-y -5.2

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3102

0.3

1.3

0.8

-0.1

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.33

-0.4

-0.6

-0.7

3.6

5594.0

0.6

0.3

-5.3

6.0

SENSEX

18542.2

0.7

0.2

-5.3

1.4

DJIA

14865.1

0.4

1.8

2.2

16.1

S&P

1593.4

0.4

2.1

2.4

-3.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in borrowing cost for Italy also supported prices. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of March. French CPI increased by 0.8 percent in March from earlier rise of 0.3 percent in February. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3138 and closed at 1.3102 against dollar on Thursday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 12, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in dollar index coupled with ongoing tension in the Korean peninsula. However, optimistic global market sentiments boosted the demand for riskier assets. Further, US minutes from Federal Reserve showed that several Fed officials were in favour to end asset purchase programme earlier coupled with decline in jobless claims data from US prevented sharp upside in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1567.81/oz and closed at $1560.74/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on negative note in the yesterday trading session and closed at Rs.29184/10 gms after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 29055/10 gms on Thursday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1560.7 29100.0 Prev. day 0.2 -0.9 as on 11 April, 2013 WoW 0.5 0.7 MoM -1.8 -0.9 YoY -5.8 2.2

1565.0

-0.6

1.2

-1.3

-5.6

$/oz

1564.3

0.4

-0.7

-1.8

-5.7

Rs /10 gms

29184.0

-0.2

0.6

-0.7

2.0

Source: Reuters

Silver
Spot silver prices ended on the flat note on Thursday. However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with decline in jobless claims data from US cushioned sharp decline in the prices. Further, weakness in DX also prevented sharp downside in the prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day low of $27.40 /oz and closed at $27.60/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 0.2 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 51674/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 51215/kg on Thursday.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 27.6 52720.0 Prev day 0.0 -0.5

as on 11 April, 2013 WoW 2.6 1.5 MoM -4.1 -3.8 YoY -12.4 -6.6

$/oz $/ oz

2757.0 2768.5

-0.6 0.2

2.9 3.5

-3.7 -3.8

-13.0 -12.1

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative side on the back of favourable US economic data from yesterdays trading session. Further, the US Federal Reserves minutes showed that several Fed officials said that central bank should begin to narrow down its loose monetary policy may keep prices under pressure. However, worries over economic growth after the IMF slashed the US GDP growth to 1.7 percent may cushion sharp downside in the prices. Additionally, weakness in DX will prevented sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee may cushion sharp decline in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 12, 2013 Support 1553/1547 29060/28950 27.40/27.20 51300/50900 Resistance 1566/1572 29290/29400 27.70/28.00 51900/52300

Rs / kg

51674.0

-0.2

1.4

-4.8

-7.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 12, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined around 1.2 percent yesterday taking cues from cut in the demand forecast from IEA for the current year coupled with rise in Saudi Arabias crude oil production. However, sharp downside in the oil prices was cushioned on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets coupled with decline in US jobless claims data. Weakness in the DX also prevented sharp fall in the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $93.06/bbl and closed at $93.51/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 1.1 percent and closed at Rs.5085/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5061/bbl on Thursday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (April 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 93.4 104.8 93.5 Prev. day -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 WoW 0.2 -1.4 0.3 as on 11 April, 2013 MoM 0.4 -4.1 0.5 YoY -9.0 -13.5 -8.9

$/bbl

104.3

-1.4

-1.9

-4.7

-13.2

Rs/bbl

5085.0

-1.1

-0.2

1.1

-4.3
Source: Reuters

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices increased around 1.63 percent yesterday on the back of more than expected decline in US natural gas inventories. Further, expectations of cool winter weather conditions during the coming weekend also supported an upside in the prices. Weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the prices. Gas prices touched an intra-day high of $4.185/mmbtu and closed at $4.168/mmbtu in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices declined by 0.3 percent and closed at Rs.224.80/mmbtu after touching an intra-day low of Rs.220.30/mmbtu on Thursday. EIA Inventories Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory declined more than expected by 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 1.673 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 5th April 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of cut in demand forecast from IEA coupled with increase in OPEC production. However, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global market sentiments will cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 12, 2013 Support 92.50/91.90 5040/5010 Resistance 94.10/95.00 5130/5180

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.168 224.8 Prev. day 1.6 -0.3

as on 11 April, 2013

WoW 5.31 4.46

MoM 14.57 13.36

YoY 111.25 115.74

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 12, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a mixed note. Optimistic global market sentiments coupled with favourable economic data from china cushioned sharp downside in the prices. Additionally, decline in the US jobless claims data prevented sharp decline in the prices. Mixed LME inventories kept the prices under pressure. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead $/tonne 2085.8 -0.4 0.4 -7.3 1.8 Rs /kg 881.2 0.2 -0.9 -5.5 -5.9 $/tonne 16220.0 0.7 0.6 -5.6 -10.4 Rs /kg 102.0 -0.9 -1.2 -3.4 -4.7 $/tonne 1896.0 -0.6 0.5 -4.0 -9.6 Rs/kg 411.9 -0.1 0.7 -3.4 -0.9 $/tonne Last 7594.3 Prev. day 0.2 as on 11 April, 2013 WoW 1.9 MoM -3.2 YoY -5.6

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, favourable economic data from China and US supported prices to trade on the positive note. However, rise in LME inventories by 0.4 percent which stood at 590,175 tonnes capped sharp gains in the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7622/tonne and closed at $7594.3/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note and closed at Rs. 411.9/kg on Thursday after touching an intra-day low of Rs 408.2 kg. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with the expectation of negative retail sales data from US. Further, IMF slashed the US GDP growth to 1.7 percent as compared to 2 percent, even IMF expects euro zone economy to contract by 0.2 percent and World GDP to grow by 3.4 percent as compared to 3.5 percent may add further downside pressure. However, weakness in DX coupled with expectation of favourable US Consumer sentiments may cushion sharp fall in the prices. On the MCX, sharp decline in the prices may be prevented on the back of depreciation in the Indian rupee. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 12, 2013 Support 409/406 101.5/100.5 111.8/110.8 101.3/100.5 876/868 Resistance 414/417 103.5/104.5 113.7/114.8 102.8/103.5 889/896

(3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

112.7

-0.9

-1.1

-7.2

6.2

$/tonne

1903.8

-0.3

0.5

-3.7

-4.7

Rs /kg

102.4

-0.7

-0.9

-3.5

-0.8

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 11th April 590,175 5,192,100 168,378 1,134,825 260,175 10th April 587,925 5,202,900 167,700 1,133,650 260,250 Actual Change 2,250 -10,800 678 1,175 -75 (%) Change 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 12, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Industrial Production m/m ECOFIN Meetings Euro group Meetings Core Retail Sales m/m PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Core PPI m/m FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Business Inventories m/m Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Country Japan Europe Europe Europe US US US US US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 2:30pm Day 1 All Day 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:15pm 7:25pm 7:30pm 10:00pm Actual 1.1% Forecast 0.8% 0.3% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 79.1 0.4% Previous -1.1% -0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 78.6 1.0% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium High Medium High

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