Central Asia and Russia

An old sweet song

Aug 28th 2008 | ALMATY From The Economist print edition

Russias Central Asian underbelly rumbles queasily

A CERTAIN tension was in the air as Central Asian leaders gathered in Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan, on August 28th. They met at the annual summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, which groups Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with Russia and China. As in other parts of the former Soviet empire, the region has been shaken by the brief war between Russia and Georgia and the Russianinduced declarations of independence by the Georgian enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Unlike the leaders of Ukraine and the Baltic states, however, Central Asias presidents have trod carefully. For the most part, they have kept their thoughts on the war to themselves. The notable exception is Kazakhstans president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. But even he has confined himself to vague public statements and avoided taking sides, though he sent humanitarian aid to South Ossetia. Government officials and regional pundits agree that a Russian foray into any of the five Central Asian countries (the fifth is Turkmenistan) is highly unlikely. There would be no reason for it. Central Asia has no anti-Russian regimes and joining NATO is not on the cards. Europe is too far away. Even so, Russias military humiliation of Georgia and its stand-off with America have unsettled the region. Central Asias leaders have long learned to live with Russias view of their countries role: as a useful buffer to volatile Afghanistan, and as important trading partners and energy suppliers. Equally, however, since the collapse

of the Soviet Union, America and China have growing interests and investments in the region. This has helped check any overweening Russian dominance. Oil-rich and multi-ethnic, Kazakhstan is the economic powerhouse of the region and the Central Asian country with the largest Russian population. Indeed, Russia sees Kazakhstan as such a trusted and strategic partner that President Dmitry Medvedevs first trip abroad took him to the Kazakh capital, Astana (albeit en route to China). But, landlocked and wedged between the huge land masses of China and Russia, Kazakhstan also wants a broad range of foreign links. Of the Central Asian countries, it has the most American investments, and according to its governments statistics is, remarkably, the largest foreign investor in Georgia. Kyrgyzstan, like Georgia and Ukraine, is a former Soviet republic that has experienced a so-called colour revolution, which led to the overthrow of its president in 2005. But it strongly sides with Russia. This month an opinion poll found that most of the population would like Kyrgyzstan to have even closer ties with Russia. Hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyzstanis and Tajiks have already migrated to Russia for work to escape their countries poverty. Yet Kyrgyzstan is in the unique position of playing host to both a Russian military base and an American one, the latter having been set up for the NATO-led troops of the international coalition fighting in Afghanistan. Observers believe that, at the Dushanbe summit, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev will probably succumb to pressure to close the American base. Uzbekistan, for its part, shut down its American base over two years ago after being criticised by the American government for a massacre in the city of Andijan in May 2005. It has been a very close ally of Russia ever since. The state-controlled Uzbek press, like that in Turkmenistan, has largely ignored events in Georgia and South Ossetia. Even if the region need not fear Russian invasion, the war in the Caucasus does pose a threat. As Sultan Akimbekov, editor of the Kazakh magazine, Kontinent, puts it, our region does not want to decide which side to take. We just want to have what we have today. And, if the confrontation between Russia and the West worsens further, that may no longer be possible.