8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity

1 of 8: Century of the City State Spring 2013

possibilities fueled by d le lle ra pa un d an e nc da un We live in a time of great ab ur job at sparks & honey is to O . gy lo no ch te of ct pa im e exponential growth from th ing exponential cultural iv dr e ar at th s rn tte pa d an s , balancer understand the accelerators cultural strategists and of am te ur O . re tu fu e bl ea forese nds and use them tre e es change in the near term and th y pl ap to s er ad le t brands and though curators works with leading novation. as a catalyst for disruptive in of emerging fringe signals, e lu va e th nd ta rs de un to r in orde sands of inputs ou th g We eat culture for breakfast rin ito on m le hi W s. rn e doubling patte rating trends that will cultural shifts and explosiv le ce ac y dl pi ra 8 d ie tif en id em, we have and mapping and scoring th yday consumers. er ev d an s se es sin bu ts, en m shape institutions, govern a curated snapshot e ar sh to r de or in s, te et gn vi trends into short lenges. We will cover We have consolidated these al ch ed ct pe ex un or es iti t opportun ury of the City State. We of what will either create grea nt Ce e Th rs ve co rt po re is Th w months. these trends over the next fe ese exponential trends will th w ho on n io at or pl ex d an bate hope you engage us in the de World. shape your business and the n will also continue in our sio us sc di e Th . rts po re e fre t st of eigh Please enjoy and share this fir bigthink/blogs/amped and w. ww , ey on dh an ks ar sp @ core social channels ndhoney. www.facebook.com/sparksa

Our global society has entered a period of accelerated change.

These changes are happening rapidly,

Vatican City 2005 Vatican City 2013

reshaping entire industries, economic models and institutions.

Our blind spot comes from the fact that we have lived in a linear world. But todays changes are exponential.
Exponential

Linear

$100M

$10M

$!M Cost Per Genome $100k

With Exponential Change: Cost decreases Size decreases Performance increases Time compresses
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$10k

$1k 2001

2012

350 300 250 200 Price of IPhone in 150 100 50 0

2009

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Remember, in 2005: Facebook didnt exist for most people, Twitter was still a sound, 4G was a parking space, and Skype was a typo.
Source: Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat

Weve gone from this

to this

to this.

No matter what your view of change-its inevitable that it will happen.

Anticipating rapid transformation creates great opportunity.

Century of the City State

Future of Education

Citizen Doctor

3D Printing

We are tracking 8 exponential trends that will shape humanity.

Quantied Everywhere

Conscious Brands

Ancient Wisdom

Cyborg Marketing

Century of the City State

Future of Education

Citizen Doctor

3D Printing

Century of the City State

Quantied Everywhere

Conscious Brands

Ancient Wisdom

Cyborg Marketing

A mega city is dened as a metropolitan area with a population in excess of 10 million people. There are 23 megacities in the world now. By 2025, the UN predicts there will be 37. Tokyo alone is forecasted to have over 37.2 million residents by 2025, more than live in Canada. These megacities are also known as "urban agglomerations" or "city states."

Century of the City State

The city state of the future offers a whole new way of living, as economies, communities, work, infrastructure and home are recongured as historic amounts of people consolidate into urban centers. The city state encompasses not only the city center, but the surrounding suburban areas that feed into the central business district. In fact, 60% of the the U.S. population lives in the suburbs. Population is just one dening factor of the city state. Clusters of innovators and inuencers also create a critical mass of cultural capital that is leveraged by the area, its people and its businesses.

century of the city state

A Consolidation of Humanity: "Just over half the world now lives in cities but by 2050, over 70% of the world will be urban dwellers. By then, only 14% of people in rich countries will live outside cities, and 33% in poor countries." - United Nations

century of the city state

Powerful Economic Engines: As an example, the San Francisco Bay Area has a larger economy than that of Switzerland, Belgium, Taiwan and Sweden, among others (GDP of $535 billion).

century of the city state

Mayors Are the New Kings: Concentrated wealth, innovation and populations turn city states into highly inuential centers which dictate policy and cultural shifts.

century of the city state

What is life like in the city state of the future?

century of the city state

72%
Of Americans say the economic downturn has helped me prioritize whats important in my life
Source: Yankelovich

People will live in smaller spaces: With space at a premium, apartment sizes will shrink and become exible, multi-purpose spaces. Graham Hills Life Edited apartment is a present day model of this concept.

century of the city state

Sustainable Living is a Must: From food to manufacturing, production moves locally as a way to build resilient communities that support themselves while maximizing resources and decreasing environmental impact. The countryside comes to the city, creating a rurban (rural urban) environment.

century of the city state

People Will Share Everything: Currently valued at $26 Billion, the sharing economy is becoming a standard part of life for many people. Expect it to be a part of everyones lives in the spacestarved world of the city state.

century of the city state

Infrastructure Becomes Decentralized: Drones are poised to fuel the next generation of delivery services. Experiments are being undertaken that aim to replace postal workers and newspaper delivery workers with drones.

century of the city state

38%
Of Americans have a side gig (freelancing, working a 2nd job or running their own business)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Work Becomes Fragmented: With the rise of freelancing, portfolio careers made of multiple jobs, crowdsourcing, microentrepreneurship and task-based services, work becomes snack sized and sporadic, leading to a new structuring of time.

century of the city state

61%
Of Americans say it is very important that I make a difference in my community
Source: Yankelovich

The Sense of Community Strengthens: Organizations like miLES are trying to engage the community by lling empty commercial space with interesting businesses and organizations on short-term leases while the landlords wait for the right long-term tenants. Maker spaces and co-working ofces are also lling this need for building community connections.

century of the city state

Transportation Becomes Automated: Automated cars and buses are becoming a reality now, and will become a standard part of life in the future city state. This reshaping of the transportation landscape makes life more efcient and opens up opportunities.

century of the city state implications

Think Smaller and Transformable: As consumers inhabit increasingly smaller spaces, products will
need to be collapsable and more compact (think: folding electronics). Brands will be able to differentiate if they are transformer-like, multi-purpose and modular to fit into an edited and liquid lifestyle.

Build Unique 3rd Space Communities: With space at home at a premium, residents of the city-state
will need new places to go to work, play and commune. Retail will evolve into third spaces offering more entertainment and brands will take advantage of this by migrating online communities to real-world meet-up spaces. In addition, residents will need spaces to escape from urban life (either in country escapes near the city or digital/urban detox zones within).

Plan to Rent it, Lend it and Trade it: As the sharing economy continues to explode, consumers will
focus more on durability messages in marketing. Brands will also seize opportunities to drive secondarymarket value, possibly even creating the secondary marketplaces.

Help Create the Micro-Homestead: From home micro-farming to power generation and food
preservation, consumers will continue to take control of the basics. DIY will move from home-improvement to homesteading, as consumers seek ways to create healthier, self-sufficient lifestyles. This creates opportunities for brands to insinuate themselves into lifes necessities.

Take an App Approach to Services: As work becomes more fragmented, people will need new and
customized support services to maintain busy lives split between micro-careers, as well as help optimizing their micro living spaces. Brands will be able to make big impact by offering small but highly prized services.

Job of the Future?

Central Micro-Manufacturing Zone Planner CMZs (Central Micro-Manufacturing Zones) will replace Central Business Districts in cities, as small-scale micro-manufacturing is enabled by 3D printing and other technologies. As consumers seek on-demand and DIY micro-manufacturing, these small industries will nd economies of scale by clustering together. Planners and managers of these zones will be sought after.

Methodology
At sparks & honey we track and analyze thousands of cultural data sources in real time, incorporating live data feeds from numerous APIs as well as hundreds of ofine sources. Using a proprietary Culture Mapping Platform, we monitor cultural bursts, identify clusters of activity and trends, score their energy levels, project their lifespans and analyze their cultural resonance. This intelligence helps brands understand and connect with popular culture in order to make more strategically informed business decisions. Our platform incorporates three different frameworks to structure and contextualize raw data:

CONTENT NETWORKS

A mapping system used to model dynamic, interconnected webs of cultural activity. Signicant groupings of manifestations which signify cultural waves and trends.
Digital Cities
Share Everything

TOPIC CLUSTERS

Urban Farming

MANIFESTATIONS

Discrete data points that indicate change.

ENERGY SCORE & PREDICTION SCORE

The Energy Score is rated on a scale of 1-5.It reects the speed of reach and volume of buzz, and incorporates a ranking of inuencer activity that includes reach, resonance and relevance. The Prediction Score is rated on a scale of 1-40. It reects anticipated duration of a trend.
ENERGY PREDICTION

DNA

A unique set of attributes that describes the core concepts of each trend.

compact sharable cradle to cradle frictionless innovative

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We're covered in germs. Let's design for that. Dirty house? Clean it up with this trash-powered robot

Designing A Delicious, InsectBased Food System

Paris Employs Four Sheep to Keep the Citys Grass Mowed

Local and Alternative Currencies Why Robots Will And Must Take Our Jobs

Engineering Nature

Millennials and the Recession Trends: Neo-Bartering, and QRewarding

How Robots and Military-Grade Algorithms Make Same-Day Delivery Possible

Robotic Workforce

LIFE LOGIC CROWD IQ

Alternative Currencies

Do you Mealku? Potluck craze sweeps home kitchens

ROBOPOCALYPSE

Share Everything: Why the Way We Consume Has Changed Forever

Share Everything

A Hitchhiking App for the Sharing Economy

Century of the City State

Your Web Product May be coming to a locker near you

FRICTIONLESS LIFE
Digital Cities

RURBAN
Nature Decit

Is Our Disconnect From Nature a Disorder?

Urban Planning Goes Digital in Spanish 'Smart City'

LIFE EDITED
Automated Transportation

The Unintended (and Deadly) Consequences of Living in the Industrialized World

Startup Founder Wants To Replace The Postal System With Drones

Urban Farming

Brooklyn Whole Foods Will Have A 20,000Square-Foot Rooftop Greenhouse

2022: Cheap ights, more rail and handsfree cars

Volvo Cars Automatically Brake for Cyclists

The New 3rd Spaces

Compact Living
Can Aquaponics Change the Way We Eat? Living With Less. A Lot Less. Housing-starved cities seek relief in microapartments
Content Network Topic Cluster Manifestation

Century of the City States Topic Clusters

The Rise of the Repair Cafe

Will Co-Working Erode Demand for Ofce Space?

p.

Century of the City State

Future of Education

Citizen Doctor

3D Printing

Stay tuned for The Future of Education, the next installment in our 8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity series. Follow us @sparksandhoney to keep up to date with our latest free reports.

Quantied Everywhere

Conscious Brands

Ancient Wisdom

Cyborg Marketing

Sparks & Honey Offerings

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SOCIAL MEDIA
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