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N 0976 6553(Online) Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), IAEME & TECHNOLOGY (IJEET) ISSN 0976 6545(Print) ISSN 0976 6553(Online) Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), pp. 91-99 IAEME: www.iaeme.com/ijeet.asp Journal Impact Factor (2012): 3.2031 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com

IJEET

IAEME

ELECTRICITY LOAD FORECASTING BY ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL USING WEATHER DATA

Balwant singh Bisht1 and Rajesh M Holmukhe2 1 Post graduate student (M.E.Electrical Engineering), Electrical Engineering Department, Bharati Vidyapeeth Deemed University College of Engineering, Pune411043 (MS), India. Email: balwant_sb@rediffmail.com 2 Associate Professor in Electrical Engineering, Electrical Engineering Department, Bharati Vidyapeeth Deemed University, College of Engineering, Pune-411043(MS), India. Email: rajeshmholmukhe@hotmail.com

ABSTRACT This paper discusses significant role of advanced technique in short-term load forecasting (STLF), that is, the forecast of the power system load over a period ranging from one hour to one week. An adaptive neuro - wavelet time series forecast model is adopted to perform STLF. The model is composed of several neural networks (NN) whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The data to be used in the model are both the temperature and electricity load historical data. The temperature variable is included because temperature has a close relationship with electricity load. The calculation of mean average percentage error for a specific region under study in India is done and results obtained using MATLABS ANN toolbox. This study proposes a STLF model with a high forecasting accuracy. In this study absolute mean error (AME) value calculated is 1.24% which represents a reasonable degree of accuracy. Key words: short term load forecasting, artificial neural network, power system 1. INTRODUCTION

Short term load forecasting (STLF) studies began at early 1960s. In 1971, a load forecasting system was developed by researchers in United States which used statistical approach. Subsequent to 1990s researchers started to implement different approaches for STLF other than statistical approach mainly due to their requirement for huge data sets to

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International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology (IJEET), ISSN 0976 6545(Print), ISSN 0976 6553(Online) Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), IAEME

implement STLF systems. In 2003 many STLF studies were carried using neural network models.Load forecasting occupies a central role in the operation and planning of Electric Power System. Load forecasting can be divided into three major categories: Long-term load forecasting, Medium-term load forecasting and Short-term load forecasting. STLF precedes many important roles carried in energy management systems (EMS), which continuosly monitors the system and initiates the control actions in time critical Situations. STLF model is critical important decision support tool for operating the electric power system securely and economically. Load forecasting can be made by different methods like regression analysis, statistical methods, artificial neural networks, genetic algorithm, fuzzy logic, etc.In the recent years, many researchers have tried to use the modern techniques based on artificial intelligence. Of all techniques, the artificial neural network (ANN) receives the most attention. ANN is regarded as an effective approach and is now commonly used for electricity load forecast. The reason for its popularity is its ease of use and its ability to learn complex input-output relationship. The ability to learn gives ANN a better performance in capturing nonlinearities for a time series signal. Therefore, the study in this paper proposes a model comprising neural networks as its forecasting tool. This paper explores an adaptive neuro-wavelet model for Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF). Both historical load and temperature data, which have important impacts on load level, are used in forecasting by the proposed model. To enhance the forecasting accuracy by neural networks, the non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT) is introduced to pre-process these data. The objective of this study is conduct out short-term load forecasting using MATLABS ANN Toolboxes. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Method is applied to forecast the shortterm load for a large power system in one state of India. A nonlinear load model is proposed and several structures of ANN for short term forecasting are tested. The data used in the model, both the weather and electricity load historical data were obtained from metrological office of Government of India (GOI), Pune(India) and state load dispatch center,Mumbai(India).Field visits to state load dispatchcenter,Mumbai(India) were done. 2. LITERATURE SURVEY

One of the first published studies was done by Heinemann et al. in 1966 which dealt with the relationship between temperature and load. Lijesen and Rosing (1971) developed load orecastig systemwhich used statistical approach. In this study, estimated average root mean square error value was 2.1%. Hagan and Behr (1987) forecasted load using a time series model. With this model, the nonlinear relationship between load and temperature data during winter months was clearly observed. Park et al (1991) claimed that the statistical methods like regression and interpolation did not provide reliable prediction performances that of artificial neural network (ANN). The average absolute errors of the one-hour and 24hour ahead forecasts were calculated as 1.40% and 2.06%, respectively. This method was found successful when compared with the regression method for 24 hour ahead forecasts with an error of 4.22%. Xu(2003) considered market forecasting by using various new techniques, such as wavelet, neural network and support vector machine.The author explored how different models for electricity Load and price forecast have been developed, which are

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International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology (IJEET), ISSN 0976 6545(Print), ISSN 0976 6553(Online) Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), IAEME

able to forecast at one or more time steps ahead. Dong et al (2003) presented an adaptive neuro-wavelet model for Short Term Electricity Load Forecast (STLF). Both historical load and temperature data, which have important impacts on load level, are used in forecasting by the proposed model. To enhance the forecasting accuracy by neural networks, the Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT) is introduced to pre-process these data. Benaouda et al (2005) looked at wavelet multiscale decomposition based autoregressive approach for the prediction of one-hour ahead load based on historical electricity load data.Ching-Lai Hor et al (2005) made use of forecasting model including both climate-related and socioeconomic factors that can be used very simply by utility planners to assess long-term monthly electricity patterns using long-term estimates of climate parameters, gross domestic product (GDP), and population growt. Myint et al (2008) proposed a novel model for short term loadforecast (STLF) in the electricity market.In this study the prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. 3. KEY FEATURES OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING (ANNSTLF) Advantages of ANNSTLF 1. Adaptive learning: An ability to learn how to do tasks based on the data given for training or initial experience. 2. Self-Organization: An ANN can create its own organization or representation of the information it receives during learning time. 3. Real Time Operation: ANN computations may be carried out in parallel, and special hardware devices are being designed and manufactured which take advantage of this capability. Limitations in the ANNSTLF Several difficulties exist in short-term load forecasting such as precise hypothesis of the input-output relationship, generalization of experts experience, the forecasting of anomalous days, inaccurate or incomplete forecasted weather data. 4. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF A NEURON

A neuron is an information processing unit that is fundamental to the operation of a neural network. The three basic elements of the neuron model are. A set of weights, an adder for summing the input signals and activation function for limiting the amplitude of the output of a neuron.

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International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology (IJEET), ISSN 0976 6545(Print), ISSN 0976 6553(Online) Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), IAEME

Figure 1 Model of an artificial neural network (ANN) 5. NEURAL NETWORK (NN) MODEL WITH WAVELET ENHANCEMENT FOR TIME SERIES FORECAST To improve the quality of the raw input signal for time series forecast, the neural network model is enhanced with multi-scale wavelet transform. Figure below shows an illustration of the wavelet enhanced neural network model for time series forecast.The inputs given are: Hourly load demand for the full day, day of the week, min/max/ average daily temperature and min/max daily humidity.

Figure 2 Input-output schematic for load forecasting 6. MEAN AVERAGE PERCENTAGE ERROR (MAPE)

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Following table shows the different methods of the electric load forecasting and mean absolute percentage error based on literature survey. The figure shows the neural network method is more accurate than any other methods. Therefore method used in this study i.e artificial neural network based load forecasting method is justified. Table 1 Various STLF methods & MAPE Forecasting Methods Regression Time Series Expert System Fuzzy Logic Super Vector Machine Neural Network Figure 3 Actual v/s forecasted load for Sunday MAPE 3.74% 3.13% 2.74% 2-3% 2.14% 1.81%

7. RESULTS The results obtained from testing the trained neural network on new data for 24 hours of a day over a one-week period are presented below in graphical form. Each graph shows a plot of both the predicted and actual electrical load in MW values against the hour of the day. The absolute mean error % (AME %) between the predicted and actual loads for each day has been calculated and presented in the table. Overall, these error values translate to an absolute mean error of 1.24% for the network. This represents a high degree of accuracy in the ability of neural networks to forecast electric load.

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Table 2 Mean average percentage error Day Marc h 3rd week 0.74 0.69 0.18 1.41 1.50 0.62 3.24 1.14 Augu st 2nd week 2.28 0.72 0.23 1.81 1.07 1.27 0.94 1.18 Januar y 1st week 1.47 1.09 2.38 0.21 0.62 3.08 0.39 1.32

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8. Characteristics of the power system load Various factors that influence the system load behavior, can be classified into the major categories as weather, time, economy, random disturbance etc

Figure 9 Hour load profile of grid in this study for a week of March 2010 From the above daigram it is seen that ,typically load is low and stable from 0:00 to 6:00; it rises from around 6:00 to 9:00 and then becomes flat again until around 12:00; then it descends gradually until 17:00; thereafter it rises again until 19:00; it descends again until the end of the day. CONCLUSION The result of adaptive neuro-wavelet time series forecast model used for one day ahead short term load forecast for the considered area under study in India has a good performance and reasonable prediction accuracy. Its forecasting reliabilities were evaluated by computing the mean absolute error between the exact and predicted electrcity load values.We were able to obtain an Absolute Mean Error (AME) of 1.24% which represents a high degree of accuracy. The results suggest that ANN model with the developed structure can perform good prediction with least error and finally this neural network could be an important tool for short term load forecasting. The accuracy of the electricity load forecast is crucial in better power system planing and reliability. ACKNOWELDGEMENT Bharati Vidyapeeth Deemed University College of Engineering, Pune (India) for providing MATLAB software and all necessary lab & library facilities.Metrological department of Government of India for weather data. State load dispatch center, Mumbai (India) for load data.

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International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology (IJEET), ISSN 0976 6545(Print), ISSN 0976 6553(Online) Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), IAEME REFERENCES [1] H. K. Alfares and M. Nazeeruddin, Electric load forecasting: literature survey and classification, International Journal of Systems Science, vol. 33, no. 1, 2002. [2] D. Benaouda, F. Murtagh, J. L. Starck, and O. Renaud, Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting, Sciences-New York, no. 1, pp. 1-47, 2005. [3] Ly Fie Sugianto Xue-Bing Lu School of Business Systems. Demand forecasting in the deregulated market: a bibliography survey [4] M. Buhari and S. S. Adamu, Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network, Computer, vol. I, 2012. [5] Z. Y. Dong, X. Li, Z. Xu, K. L. Teo, and S. Lucia, weather depenent electricity market forecasting with neural networks , wavelet and data mining techniques ,School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering,1998. [6] M. T. Hagan and S. M. Behr, 3, August 1987, Power, vol. 0, no. 3, pp. 785-791, 1987. [7] C.-lai Hor, S. J. Watson, and S. Majithia, Analyzing the Impact of Weather Variables on Monthly Electricity Demand, IEEE transactions on power systems, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 20782085, 2005. [8] F. Mosalman, A. Mosalman, H. M. Yazdi, and M. M. Yazdi, One day-ahead load forecasting by artificial neural network, Power, vol. 6, no. 13, pp. 2795-2799, 2011. [9] P. Murto,Neural network models for short-term load forecasting, Department of Engineering Physics and Mathematics Pauli Murto, 1998. [10] D. C. Park, R. J. Marks, L. E. Atlas, and M. J. Damborg, Electric load forecasting using an artificial neural network - Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, Power, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 442449, 1991. [11] M. Park, Adaptive forecasting, Power, pp. 1757-1767. [12] L. Wang, Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Particle Swarm Algorithm and SVM, no. Vc. [13] C. Xia, J. Wang, and K. Mcmenemy, Electrical Power and Energy Systems Short , medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis function neural networks, International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 32, no. 7, pp. 743-750, 2010. [14] Z. Xu, Z. Y. Dong, W. Q. Liu, and S. Lucia,Neural network models for electricity, 1987. [15] M. M. Yi, K. S. Linn, and M. Kyaw,Implementation of Neural Network Based Electricity Load Forecasting, Engineering and Technology, pp. 381-386, 2008. [16] G. Zhang, B. E. Patuwo, and M. Y. Hu, Forecasting with artificial neural networks : The state of the art, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 14, pp. 35-62, 1998. [17] E. Banda K. A. Folly, Short Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network, IEEE, POER Tech, 2007 [18] Z. Xu , Z. Y. Dong , W. Q. Liu,Neural Network Models For Electricity Market Forecasting [19] Z.Y. Dong X. Li Z. Xu K. L. Teo, Weather Dependent Electricity Market Forecasting with Neural Networks, wavelet and Data Mining Techniques [20] A.padmaja, V.S.vakula, T.Padmavathi and S.V.Padmavathi, Small Signal Stability Analysis Using Fuzzy Controller And Artificial Neural Network Stabilizer International Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology (IJEET), Volume 1, Issue 1, 2010, pp. 47 - 70, Published by IAEME [21] Soumyadip Jana, Sudipta Nath and Aritra Dasgupta, Transmission Line Fault Classification Based On Wavelet Entropy And Neural Network International Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology (IJEET), Volume 3, Issue 2, 2012, pp. 94 - 102, Published by IAEME

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Websites 1. http://mahasldc.in/ Accessed in year 2012 2. http://www.getcogujarat.com/ Accessed in year 2012 3. http://www.imdpune.gov.in/ Accessed in year 2010 4. http://www.kalkitech.com/ Accessed in year 2011 5. http://www.mathworks.com /Accessed in year 2011 6. http://www.sldcguj.com / Accessed in year 2012 7. http://www.wunderground.com/ Accessed in year 2010 8. www.mahasldc.in / Accessed in year 2012 Field Visits 1. Metrological department,Pune(India) 2. State load dispatch center,Mumbai(India) 3. State Electrcity Board office,Pune(India) Acronymns 1. AME :Absolute mean error 2. ANN:Artificial neural network 3. ANNSTLF: Artificial neural network based Short term load forecasting 4. EMS : Energy management systems 5. GDP : Gross domestic product 6. GOI : Government of India 7. MAPE: Mean average percentage error 8. NN : Neural Networks 9. NWT: Non-decimated Wavelet Transform 10. STLF : Short-term load forecasting

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