Astheygoabouttheirdailytasks,mostNewYorkersremainoblivioustothe citysstatusasanislandandamajorseaport.Tecityboastsnearly600 miles (970kilometers)ofshoreline,andfourofitsveboroughsareislands.How- ever, the citys waterfront is undergoing a major transformation. Shipping, exceptforcruiseships,haslargelymovedtonearbyStatenIslandandBay- onne,NewJersey.Pedestrianwalkwaysandbicyclepathsnowreplacerotting piers and abandoned warehouses and factories. New high-rise apartment complexessproutlikemushrooms. New York City recognizes the issues of global warming and sea level rise in its waterfront redevelopment plans. Te city currently is among the 10 portcitiesmostvulnerabletocoastalooding,intermsofpopulationand assets. 46 Bythe2070s,NewYorkCitywillstillremainamongthetop10port citiesatrisk,basedonassets.Wintercyclonesandhurricaneshaveooded partsofthecityinthepast,mostrecentlyduringthenoreasterofDecem- ber1992,discussedabove. Te mayors Oce of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability manages city-owned infrastructure. Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently commis- sionedastudybyexpertsfromtheNASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStud- ies,ColumbiaUniversity,otherregionaluniversities,andtheprivatesector toadviseonclimatechangerisksarisingfromchangesintemperature,pre- cipitation,andsealevelchangeandtorecommendadaptationstrategies. 47
Table 9.1 Rotterdam and New York City Compared
City Rotterdam NewYorkCity 2Iuu 2u8u2u9u (rel.toI99u) (rel.to2uuu) SeaLevelRise u.63I.3m u.3u.38m(centralrange) u.67m(max.) Rapidicemelt I.uI.4m I-in-Iuu-yearoodheight 2.8m 2.93.3m Sources: Rotterdam data from Delta Commissie (2uu8), Aerts et al. (2uu9). New York City data from Hortonetal.(2uIu). C6070.indb 243 1/9/13 4:49 PM 244 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S Te New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2010 report proj- ectsfuturesealevelrisebasedonsevenGlobalCirculationModels(GCMs) andthreegreenhousegasemissionsscenarios(IPCCSRESA2,A1B,andB2). Teseprojections,modiedfromIPCCmethodology,includeglobalcontri- butions from thermal expansion and meltwater (glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets), as well as local land subsidence, mainly due to glacial isostatic ad- justments,andlocalchangesinwaterheightfromseatemperature,salinity, and ocean currents. (Other factors aecting sea level, such as gravitational androtationalterms,werenotincluded.)Tosimulatepotentialdynamicice acceleration,anupper-limit,high-impactRapidIce-Meltscenarioassumes thatglaciersandicesheetswillmeltatratescomparabletothoseoftheLast Glacial Termination (chapter 5), when sea level climbed at an average rate of0.390.47inches(1012millimeters)peryear.Tisscenarioassumesthat meltwaterrisesexponentiallyfromthepresentmeanicemeltrateof1.1cen- timeters per decade between 2000 and 2004, going to 2100. Tis term is addedtotheotherthreesealevelterms,whichremainunchanged. Te GCM-based projections show a sea level rise of 712 inches (18 30 centimeters) 48 bythe2050sand1223inches(3058centimeters)bythe 2080s(table9.2).Sealevelreaches-4155inches(104140centimeters)by the2080sintheRapidIce-Meltscenario. Te frequency, intensity, and duration of coastal ooding will likely in- crease along with a rising sea. Te 100-year ood return curve (or stage- frequencyrelationship)forNewYorkCitywascalculatedfromaU.S.Army Corps of Engineers hydrodynamic model with both surge and tidal com- ponents. 49 Sealevelrisereducesthe100-yearreturnperiodtooncein15 35 yearsbythe2080s. Ahigheraveragesealevelwouldexacerbatestreet,basement,andsewer oodinganddisrupttransportationmorefrequently.Itwouldincreaserates Table 9.2 Sea level rise projections for New York City 2u2us 2u3us 2u8us GCM-basedscenarios 23inches 7I2inches I223inches 3.II3centimeters I83ucentimeters 3u38centimeters Rapidicemeltscenario 3Iuinches -I929inches -4I33inches I323centimeters 4874centimeters Iu4I4ucentimeters Source:RosenzweigandSolecki(2uIu),Hortonetal.(2uIu).Numbersrepresentsealevelriserelativeto theyear2uuuforthemid-67percentofthemodelprojections. C6070.indb 244 1/9/13 4:49 PM C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S 245 ofbeacherosion,necessitatingadditionalbeachnourishmentprograms.Salt waterwouldencroachfartherintofreshwatersourcesandpotentiallydam- ageinfrastructure. TeNPCCrecommendsthatNewYorkCitybegintodevelopexiblead- aptationpathwaysthatcanbeadjustedperiodicallytothelatestprojections ofsealevelrise.Existingriskandhazardmanagementstrategiescanthenbe revised as needed. Te NPCCs Adaptation Assessment Guidebook (AAG) recommendsthatcityagenciesbegintoprepareaninventoryofinfrastruc- tureandassetsatrisk,linkadaptationstrategiestocapitalandrehabilitation cycles, and periodically monitor and reassess plans in response to newer climateinformation.Inaddition,theNPCCoersageneralprocessforcre- atingasetofclimatechangerelateddesignandperformancestandards(cli- mateprotectionlevels,orCPLs).Mostimportantistoupdatecurrent1-in- 100-yearoodzonemaps(e.g.,FEMAsmaps)toincorporatefuturesealevel riseandcoastalooding(table9.2,g.9.10). Te New York City Department of City Planning has recently unveiled itsVision2020:NewYorkCityComprehensiveWaterfrontPlanforthere- vitalization of the waterfront. 3u Te plan envisions enhanced public access tothewaterfrontandutilizationofthewaterways,aswellasneweconomic developmentandresidentialconstruction.TedelineationoftheNewYork CityCoastalZoneBoundaryusedinwaterfrontrevitalizationshouldalsobe updatedtoreectthelatestsealevelriseprojections. REACTING TO THE RISING WATERS InNorfolk,Virginia,sealevelriseisnotheoreticalmatteritisalreadyoc- curring! High spring tides regularly ood streets in some neighborhoods, forcingresidentstore-parktheircarsawayfromtheshoreanddetouraround deep puddles. Norfolk, near the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, is surrounded onthreesidesbywater.Naturalsubsidenceplussettlingandcompactionof reclaimed marshland add to the rising water, making the relative sea level trendof4.44millimeters(0.17inches)peryearoneofthehighestalongthe East Coast. After extensive lobbying by local residents, the city decided to raisetheworst-hitstreetby46centimeters(18inches)andtoreadjuststorm drainpipestopreventstreetooding.FEMAhasalsospent$144,000toraise sixhouses,stimulatingobjectionsoverhighcostsandthefutilityofendless countermeasures. 3I Temayorconcedesthatiftheseakeepsrising,thecity will eventually need to create retreat zones, but those most aected (like their counterparts in Corton, England) strongly prefer action at any cost. C6070.indb 245 1/9/13 4:49 PM 246 C O P I N G WI T H T H E R I S I N G WAT E R S Meanwhile, the city will select its ood-mitigation projects more carefully andexplorealternativeslikeinatabledamsorstorm-surgeoodgates. In general, the response to the rising sea follows either of two divergent pathways.Terstcourseentailsstayingputandholdingthelineforaslong as possible. Coastal development continues (with minor restrictions) and theshoreisdefendedbyamixofhardarmoring,softer,morenaturalsolu- tions, or accommodation by means of innovative architecture and design. Figure 9.10 New York City FEMA 100-year-ood maps with sea level rise based on NPCC sea level rise projections. (Map by K. Grady, A. Marko, L. Patrick, W. Solecki, Climate Protection Level Workbook, in Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2010, g. 3, p. 317.) C6070.indb 246 1/9/13 4:49 PM
Life On Earth Is A Constant Battle Between The Tectonic Forces That Want To Make The Earth LUMPY and The Geomorphic Agents That Want To Make The Earth SMOOTH