Kemenko Perekonomian DEPUTI INFRASTRUKTUR DAN PENGEMBANGAN WILAYAH

MP3EI, Kasus IM2 dan Dunia Usaha

By: Eddy Satriya Asdep Telematika dan Utilitas

Disampaikan dalam acara:

FGD Sinkronisasi Kelembagaan Penyelenggaraan Telekomunikasi

Kemenko Polhukam, Jakarta, 25 April 2013

CONTENT:
1. MP3EI: The Way We Are 2. Economy, ICT and Connectivity 3. ICT Industry is not an ATM

1.MP3EI: The Way We Are

Before, Now, and Then!!!

(China , America, and Indonesia) China constructs Bridges America exports Chopsticks

What can Indonesia do???

Rich Natural Resources

Natural Gas Thermal Coal
Geothermal

most of them are still intact to be processed into higher VA products

Palm Oil Cocoa Tin Nickel Bauxite Frequency Spectrum 700 MHz outside Java, Potential arrangeme nt for Java area 2300-2360 MHz urban nationwide

Key Metrics

About 165 TCF of reserves at production rate 3 TCF pa

World second largest exporter

Home of 40% of worlds resources (the largest in the world)

Worlds largest exporter; >19 mil tons per year

At 770 thou tons/year, worlds 2nd largest producer

At 65 thou tons/year, worlds 2nd largest producer

Own 12% of worlds reserves (4th largest)

Worlds 7th largest reserves; worlds 4th largest production

Abundant resources for gas-based energy and petrochemical industries Not including NonConventional Gases, from Coal Bed Methane and Coal Gassification

About 40% is assumed feasible. Up to now, 1.200 MW has been developed.

Will be at least partially processed domestically by 2013 (new mining law: 4/2009)

Political Stability: the worlds third largest

democracy
% of appointed local government heads vs. directly elected 100% 80% 60%
Appointed Directly elected 62%

Directly elected

40% 20% 0% 2002

Source: World Bank, 2009

Appointed 38%

2007

2009 (election year 2009)

In election year 2009, President wins

Legislative
Demokrat
107 94 57
46

more than 60% votes from 176 million registered voters

Golkar PDI-P

37 148 17 26 28

PKS
PAN PPP

PKB Gerindra

(New) Democracy YES!

Just Recently (20 Sept 2012) An humble Major from small city Solo in Central Java, JOKO WIDODO paired with AHOK from Belitung (Sumatera), unsurprisingly won the most prestigious position as DKI Jaya - Jakarta governors.
Courtesy of Antara

Indonesia Economic Corridors:

Masterplan

Basically MP3EI is based on these strategic initiatives: 1. Encourage a large scale investment realization in 22 main economic activities 2. Synchronization of national action plan to revitalize the real sector performance 3. The development of center of excellence in 6 (six) economic corridors Main strategy of MP3EI: 1. Economic potential development through economic corridor 2. Strengthening the national connectivity 3. Strengthening national human resources capability and science and technology
9

MP3EI aims at accelerating Indonesias economic transformation through cross-entity synergy and collaboration
In creating economic transformation for Indonesia, MP3EI employs three pillars and revolves in the cross-entity efforts to ensure sound projects coordination, consisting of:
Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, National Development and Planning Agency, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (other relevant Ministries), Governors, Chamber of Commerce leaders, experts, business players 9 Working Groups: 3 Cross-sector Working Groups (Regulation, Connectivity, HR & Tech) and 6 Working Groups of Economic Corridors)
Chairman : President Vice Chairman: Vice President

1 2 3

Developing economic potential through economic corridors Strengthening national connectivity Strengthening national human resources capability and science & technology

2025
2014 2010
GDP: US$ ~ 1,2 T GDP: US$ 3,8 4,5T GDP/c: 13.000 16.100 US$ 12 high income country

DAILY IMPLEMENTATION TEAM Chairman: Coordinating Minister of Economic Affair Vice Chairman 1: Minister of National Dev Planning Agency Vice Chairman 2: Chairman of National Economic Committee
SECRETARIAT

GDP ~ US$ 700 B GDP/c: US$ ~ 4.800 GDP/c US$ 3,005 14 major 17th major nation economy

REGULATION Working Group

CONNECTIVITY Working Group

HR & TECH Working Group

Sumatra EC Team

Java EC Team

Kalimantan EC Team

Sulawesi EC Team

Bali-NT EC Team

PapuaKep.Maluku

EC Team

Note *EC 10 Economic Corridor

1 0

Presentase Realisasi GB 2011 berdasar nilai investasi (bukan jumlah proyek)

Sudah GB Belum GB 3% Total Investasi Rp Triliun

Realisasi GB berdasar investasi (dalam Rp T) Swast Total

BUMN a Pemerintah Campuran Investasi

Sumatera Jawa Kalimantan Sulawesi Bali - NT Papua - Maluku

18%

97% 98% 95%

90 171

80,24 159,78

5%

26 64

77,14 94,46

100% 100%

40 80
100%

411,63

37 proyek

42 proyek

22 proyek

10 proyek

111 proyek

KE Sulawesi sudah GB sebanyak 7 dari 11 proyek, namun proyek-proyek yang belum berhasil GB bernilai cukup besar (di sektor pertambangan mineral).
11

Sejauh ini sudah 92% proyek yang terealisasikan untuk GB di tahun 2011. Hanya Sulawesi saja yang realisasi dari total proyeknya masih tersisa di 63%
11

Presentase Realisasi GB 2012 berdasar nilai investasi (bukan jumlah proyek)

Sudah GB Belum GB
83% 100% 100% 100% 37% 94% 63% Total Investasi Rp Triliun

Realisasi GB berdasar investasi (dalam Rp T) Swast Total

BUMN
41,65

Pemerintah Campuran

Investasi

Sumatera

17%

37,8 92,6

Jawa
Kalimantan

115,56 99,3 10,4 42,00 Bali - NT 4,4 35,5

100%

Sulawesi

13,07 212,28

Papua - Maluku 6%

20 proyek

28 proyek

21 proyek

4 proyek

71 proyek

Ini mengindikasikan terdapat proyek-proyek yang bernilai besar namun belum GB di KE Sumatera dan KE Papua-Maluku (Sumatera: jalan tol, investasi BUMN pupu,, Papua: Freeport).

Sejauh ini sudah 81% proyek yang terealisasikan untuk GB di tahun 2012. Jawa dan Sulawesi sudah GB 100%.
12

Jumlah Proyek

Nilai Investasi (Rp. Milyar) Proyek

Total Nilai Investasi (Rp. Milyar) 62.533,9 115.774,0 108.878,7 10.738,0 43.273,0 204.565,0 545.762,6

Koridor Ekonomi
Infrastrukt Sektor Riil Infrastruktur Sektor Riil ur Sumatera Jawa Kalimantan Sulawesi Bali-NT Papua-Kep.Maluku Total 32 13 9 9 5 14 82 7 31 11 7 4 4 64

25.814,9 74.840,0 14.628,0 7.880,0 16.838,0 3.085,0 143.085,9

36.719,0 40.934,0 94.250,7 2.858,0 26.435,0 201.480,0 402.676,7

39 44 20 16 9 18 146

Nilai rencana proyek yang akan GB lebih banyak dari GB tahun 2012, dan nilai investasinya sekitar dua13 kali lipat dari rencana GB 2012.
* Desember 2012

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2. Economy, ICT and Connectivity

When Realizations meet Targets

2010 TARGET RPJM
REALIZATION

2011 TARGET RPJM

REALIZATION

2012 TARGET RPJM

REALIZATION*)

Economic Growth
Inflation Unemployment Poverty

5,5- 5,6
4-6 7,6 12,0 - 13,5

6,2
7 7,1 13,33

6,0 - 6,3
4,0 - 6,0 7,3 - 7,4 11,5 - 12,5

6,5
3,8 6,6 12,49

6,4 - 6,9
4,0 - 6,0 6,7 - 7,0 10,5 - 11,5

6,23
4,30 6,14 (Agt) 11,66 (Sept)

2013
TARGET RPJM Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Poverty *) Tentaive figure 6,7 - 7,4 3,5 5,5 6,0 - 6,6 9,5 - 10,5 TARGET APBN 2013 6,8 4,9 5,8 6,1 9,5 10,5 TARGET RPJM

2014
TARGET RKP 6,8 7,2 4,5 + 1 5,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 STATUS 2 1 1 2

7,0%-7,7% 3,5 5,5 5%-6% 8%-10%

On Track/on Trend

=Need Efforts

Source: Bappenas 2013

15

Macroeconomics in Brief
Source: BPS

16

Internet : The Sector or Country ?

Sumber : telabs, 2012

17

Indonesia is above world average

100 90 80 70
Active mobile-broadband subscriptions

Indonesia >100
(above world mobile average)

Global ICT developments, 2001-2011*

Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions

Internet users
Fixed telephone lines

Per 100 inhabitants

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011*

* Estimate. Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database

1818

ICT sebagai tulang punggung ekonomi modern, juga merupakan salah satu fokus penguatan konektivitas nasional...
Kebutuhan lalu lintas data (traffic) meningkat drastis ...

... begitu pula dengan jaringan.

Economic Architecture: Regional and Trans-Regional Forum

SOURCE: BAPPENAS

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Indonesia Located In The Heart of the World Global Trade Future > 70% of the world ocean container flows associated with Asia ...
Global container trade flows based on primary trade, 2015 (in million TEUs)

KP3EI

Transatlantic North America2 (CAGR=1.5%) (CAGR=2.5%) 7.3 1.7 17.1 Transpacific East bound (CAGR=2.2%)

Intra-Europe2 (CAGR=1.2%) 9.3

Far East Middle East (CAGR=5.8%) 7.4 Far East Europe (CAGR= 3.4%) 17.5 9.8

Transpacific West bound 9.5 (CAGR=5.2%)

North America 5.9 Latin America (CAGR=2.7%) 3.9

58.9

Intra-Asia1,2 (CAGR=7.4%) Far East Australasia (CAGR=2.0%)

Latin America2 1.5 (CAGR=3.6%)

= 1 Juta TEUs (2015, Asia related) = 1 Juta TEUs (2015, non-Asia related)

Europe Latin America Europe (CAGR=2.2%) Far East (CAGR= 8.2%) 4.6 Far East Latin America (CAGR=6.4%)

4.1

Asia related > 70%

1. Includes NE, SE, and S. Asia 2. Includes domestic Note: Container flows based on forecasts excluding empties and transshipment but including domestic for intra-regional trade; some trades excluded for display purposes; CAGR based on 2007-2015
SOURCE: BCG analysis, Singapore case study

21

Domestically, Trade Route is growing rapidly

Inter-island trade developed with the growth of CAGR = 37% in the last 5 years
KP3EI

9 MT 18% CAGR

74 MT 40% CAGR

10 MT 36% CAGR 13 MT 85% CAGR 66 MT 6% CAGR

20 MT 50% CAGR

56 MT 35% CAGR 39 MT 70% CAGR

18 MT 27% CAGR

8 MT 73% CAGR
2 MT 52% CAGR 8 MT 2% CAGR

2 MT 96% CAGR

2 MT 70% CAGR

= Selected major domestic goods routes (MT/yr) = Route is part of "Pendulum Nusantara" (MT/yr)

51 MT 66% CAGR

Inter-island trade increased 5x from 638 million tons in 2006 to 3,153 million tons ins 2011
Note: Province to province origin-destination goods flow for all means of transportation (sea, air, land), CAGR 2006-2011 Source: OD Matrix - Ministry of Transportation 2006 and 2011

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Integrasi SISLOGNAS, SISTRANAS, RPJMN/RTRWN dan ICT untuk memperkuat Konektivitas Nasional

NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CONNECTIVITY STRENGHTENING

Focus on strengthening National Connectivity is to support the acceleration and expansion of Indonesias Economic Development through:
Connectivity in the Economic Growth Centers in the Corridors between the Center of Economic Growth to rural areas, including non-corridor areas

1.

2.

3.

Meningkatkan dan membangun jalan dan jalur pelayaran di koridor Meningkatkan & fasilitas infrastruktur dengan kereta api penumpang dan barang Meningkatkan akses jalan lokal yang menghubungkan pusatpusat pertumbuhan dengan fasilitas pendukung (pelabuhan, energi)

1.

2.

Mendorong arus barang dan jasa antar-ekonomi koridor untuk meningkatkan daya saing regional dan global yang efisien dan efektif Mengurangi biaya logistik dan ekonomi antar-ekonomi koridor umtuk pengiriman barang dan jasa

1.

2.

3.

Menetapkan pelabuhan laut dan bandara di barat dan timur Indonesia sebagai hub internasional Membuka gateway internasional yang baru (link) ke luar negeri Mengembangkan exchange internasional di pusat-pusat pertumbuhan 24

SOURCE: BAPPENAS

NATIONAL COORDINATION ON ACTUALIZING ASEAN CONNECTIVITY

Ketua: WAMEN PPN/WAKA BAPPENAS Sekretaris
Wakil Ketua

UNIT KERJA INFRASTRUKTUR

UNIT KERJA KELEMBAGAAN

UNIT KERJA HUBUNGAN ANTAR MASYARAKAT

UNIT KERJA PENGHUBUNG DENGAN ASEAN

TIM KERJA KONEKTIVITAS

UNIT KERJA TRANSPORTASI DAN KE-PUAN, DAN KONEKTIVITAS ASEAN

UNIT KERJA SISLOGNAS

UNIT KERJA ICT DAN ENERGI 25

SOURCE: BAPPENAS

3. ICT Industry is not an ATM

Industry Challenge

Indonesia Focus

28

Funding Challenge : ICT Fund

Source : Intel, BAPPENAS, 2011

29

Action Plan Broadband Economy in Indonesia

(Mid-term)
Policy and Regulation:
Accelerating Convergence Law TKDN System Regulation for supporting ICT Industry Growth Spectrum Refarming Regulation

Funding:
ICT Fund (USO + APBN) Public Private Partnership Tax Concern for ICT

Infrastructure:
National Broadband Network Backbone Rural Last Mile Accelerating Implementation of USO Telecom & Internet Village Accelerating Backbone Network Deployment in Eastern Indonesia

Aplication, Content & Industry: ICT Creative Industry Free/Open Source & Open Platform Developing ICT local industry

Institutional Capacity Building:

Developing Skilled ICT Workers Empowering ICT SMB Native ICT Enterpreneurship Developement

30

Regulasi ICT
UU No. 36 Tahun 1999 tentang Telekomunikasi UU No. 32 Tahun 2002 tentang Penyiaran UU No. 11 Tahun 2008 tentang Informasi dan Transaksi Elektronik (ITE) UU No. 14 Tahun 2008 tentang Keterbukaan Informasi Publik (KIP) RUU Konvergensi Telematika masih dalam pembahasan di tingkat DPR
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Struktur Industri ICT

1. Infrastruktur 2. Kebijakan dan Kerangka Regulasi 3. SDM/ICT Profesional 4. Aplikasi/Konten 5. Ekosistem/Technopark

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PERAN TELEKOMUNIKASI
1. 2. 3. 4. Sangat Strategis Punya sejarah panjang sejak zaman Belanda Berkontribusi besar dlm GDP Telah mampu memberikan layanan infrastruktur terbaik dg berbagai pilihan (fixed line, 2G, 3G, 3,5G post paid, prepaid-basic and data services, cable TV, etc.) 5. Diharapkan melalui aplikasi Broadband bisa menjadi meta-infrastructure menuju KBE
33

TOO BIG TO BE failed

1. Triliun Rupiah sudah diinvestasikan oleh Pemerintah, BUMN dan Swasta 2. The sector suffered/enjoyed a lot in the past! 3. Up and Down of the industry 4. Tulang punggung new economy 5. Membuka lapangan kerja yang luar biasa banyak utk berbagai tingkatan termasuk SME dan K5!

34

Hyper Competition
with 11 operators in market

Sumber : KADIN TIK & Ristek, 2012

35

Telcos vs. ATM

Dunia telekomunikasi secara teknis betul-betul mengenal ATM sebagai Asynchronous Transfer Mode tapi tidak betul kalau itu diartikan

AUTOMATIC TELLER MACHINE/ ANJUNGAN TUNAI MANDIRI

Lets put things right, folks!
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REPUBLIC Of INDONESIA COORDINATING MINISTRY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS

Eddy Satriya
Head of International Cooperation Division, Secretariat of KP3EI Deputy Assistant for ICT and Utility Jalan Medan Merdeka Barat No. 7, Jakarta Pusat - Indonesia Phone: +62 21 34832611; Fax: +62 21 34832609 email: satriyaeddy@gmail.com @EddySatriya

Eddy Satriya
1989 :Graduated from Bandung Institute of Technology (Telecommunication Engineering) 1997 :Graduated from University of Connecticut (MA in Economics)

1989-90: Program Management Consultancy (PMC-IV) for Telecommunication Development

1990-2005: Working in Bappenas (The National Development Planning Agency). 1995 : Secretary to Board of Commissioners of PT.Telkomsel 1997- present: Visiting Lecturer in University of Indonesia, University of Pelita Harapan, and ITB
Contact: satriyaeddy@gmail.com 62.21.3511466 t

2002-present : Actively writes various article and column in national papers and magazines.

62.21.3511464 f

2005 (Dec)-present: Working in Coordinating Ministry for Economics Affairs

2011 - Present: Head of International Cooperation Division, Secretariat of KP3EI

Recent publications are available on:

eddysatriya.wordpress.com kolom.pacific.net.id