15% Increment: Lgcap/Gwt Smlcap/Gwt Smlcap/Val Govt Long

Select four numbers: 1 to 10
Selected Assets =
Selected Allocations
Number of Years: from
Inflation =
Withdrawal Rate =
Monte Carlo Iterations =
Years
Survival Rates
SmlCap/Gwt
SmlCap/Val
50.0%
20.0%
15.0%
20
3.0%
5.00%
5000
Increment
Govt Long
15%
increasing with inflation
20
90.7%
25
86.0%
30
81.6%
35
79.4%
40
76.7%
9%
14%
18%
21%
23%
30%
Dead Portfolios
95%
LgCap/Gwt
50% LgCap/Gwt+20% SmlCap/Gwt+15% SmlCap/Val+15% Govt Long
90%
25%
Survival Rates
20%
85%
15%
80%
10%
75%
5%
0%
70%
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Fill in the data inside a red box
70
20
then click on Calculate Survival Ra
See: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/risk1.htm
Note:
LgCap/Gwt SmlCap/Gwt SmlCap/Val
Returns are selected at random

from annual returns for each
asset, from year 1928 to year 2000.
45
75.6%
50
72.8%
55
71.8%
60
72.1%
65
71.6%
70
72.4%
24%
27%
28%
28%
28%
28%
Dead Portfolios
20
25
30
35
40
45
then click on Calculate Survival Rates
50
55
60
65
70
45.9%
31.2%
39.8%
-20.1%
-46.0%
-37.4%
-25.5%
-35.2%
-47.1%
-35.8%
-41.6%
-52.2%
-7.2%
-1.9%
-1.2%
44.4%
158.1%
118.1%
10.4%
33.3%
8.2%
41.8%
42.7%
51.2%
25.4%
33.1%
74.3%
-33.2%
-46.3%
-50.3%
32.6%
41.9%
26.3%
8.0%
10.9%
-2.4%
-9.2%
-0.8%
-9.4%
-12.3%
-17.1%
-4.1%
13.2%
17.6%
35.3%
21.4%
45.6%
92.0%
16.0%
39.9%
49.1%
30.8%
62.4%
75.6%
-6.7%
-12.7%
-6.9%
3.3%
-8.3%
5.5%
3.5%
-7.6%
-2.9%
22.7%
23.2%
21.6%
24.2%
30.8%
51.9%
19.7%
16.6%
11.7%
13.1%
5.6%
8.3%
2.2%
0.6%
-6.7%
50.2%
42.7%
64.2%
30.1%
17.8%
23.9%
6.7%
5.9%
7.5%
-8.9%
-14.4%
-15.4%
40.8%
76.9%
68.2%
13.2%
19.9%
18.6%
-2.7%
-1.0%
-5.8%
26.0%
21.2%
31.1%
-10.5%
-20.9%
-8.8%
21.1%
8.2%
27.2%
15.0%
10.9%
22.7%
13.6%
35.1%
41.5%
-10.9%
-5.6%
-7.6%
29.9%
79.4%
65.7%
4.1%
29.5%
45.2%
3.0%
-24.5%
-25.8%
-5.5%
-21.0%
6.3%
23.0%
22.0%
15.7%
21.9%
-0.7%
8.1%
-21.1%
-42.8%
-25.8%
-29.7%
-32.6%
-17.4%
33.8%
58.8%
57.4%
17.5%
36.9%
57.8%
-9.4%
19.2%
24.2%
7.3%
16.8%
21.8%
18.2%
50.1%
38.2%
32.7%
52.9%
22.4%
-7.6%
-12.0%
17.8%
19.9%
19.9%
40.8%
15.2%
21.3%
48.0%
-0.6%
-14.4%
7.7%
33.5%
28.4%
30.3%
14.0%
1.5%
13.3%
7.6%
-13.1%
-6.2%
11.8%
13.8%
29.6%
36.9%
18.7%
15.4%
0.6%
-18.7%
-23.6%
43.2%
53.7%
40.8%
6.8%
4.7%
35.5%
2.5%
12.4%
28.2%
2.0%
-3.9%
2.8%
37.3%
35.6%
28.7%
20.8%
13.2%
21.5%
31.7%
15.3%
38.9%
34.9%
1.3%
-8.6%
29.3%
50.4%
3.9%
-13.2%
-21.2%
-3.2%
Portfolio
Calculation of
Govt Long Term Bond

Year
Returns
Max Withdrawal Rate
0.1%
35.2%
76.2%
55.6%
LgCap/Gwt
45.9%
LgCap/Val SmlCap/Gwt
23.6%
-20.1%
-4.7%
3.4%
-24.3%
1
103.7%
30.8%
20%
-25.5%
-43.7%
4.7%
-26.1%
2
144.7%
18.1%
18%
- 2000
-35.8%
-58.7%
-5.3%
-34.8%
3
228.6% 1928
12.6%
4
SmlCap/Val
5
T-bills
6
5 yr Treasury
31.2%
39.8%
3.2%
0.9%
-46.0%
-37.4%
4.7%
6.0%
-35.2%
-47.1%
2.4%
6.7%
-41.6%
-52.2%
1.1%
-2.3%
16.8%
16%
-1.6%
239.4%
10.7%
-7.2%
-7.4%
-1.9%
-1.2%
1.0%
8.8%
-0.1%
14%
10.0%
12%
5.0%
71.5%
143.7%
9.4%
44.4%
115.5%
158.1%
118.1%
0.3%
1.8%
14.6%
129.2%
8.6%
10.4%
-19.8%
33.3%
8.2%
0.2%
9.0%
37.9%
48.8%
42.7%
51.2%
0.1%
7.0%
31.6%
49.6%
33.1%
74.3%
0.2%
3.0%
10%
7.5%
41.8%
96.5%
8.1%
Maximum Withdrawal Rate
25.4%
75.5%
7.4%
0.0%
6.2%
11
6.7%
89.7%
6.1%
8.0%
-12.6%
10.9%
-2.4%
0.0%
4.5%
4%
6.1%
12
-5.3%
97.5%
5.7%
-9.2%
-1.8%
-0.8%
-9.4%
0.0%
3.0%
0.9%
2%
3.2%
0%
2.1%
13
-10.0%
111.7%
5.4%
-12.3%
-1.2%
-17.1%
-4.1%
0.0%
0.5%
14
15.9%
99.2%
5.2%
13.2%
33.6%
17.6%
35.3%
0.3%
1.9%
15
34.0%
76.3%
5.0%
21.4%
42.2%
45.6%
92.0%
0.4%
2.8%
70
26.3%
65
6.5%
41.9%
60
92.9%
26.0%
55
10
32.6%
50
1.6%
29.4%
45
0.3%
40
-50.3%
35
-46.3%
30
-39.6%
25
-33.2%
20
6.9%
15
116.8%
10
-33.4%
0.2%
8%
5.5%
6%
6.0%
2.8%
16
23.7%
63.5%
4.9%
16.0%
42.0%
39.9%
49.1%
0.3%
1.8%
10.7%
17
40.9%
46.4%
4.8%
30.8%
48.3%
62.4%
75.6%
0.3%
2.2%
-0.1%
18
-6.9%
51.4%
4.7%
-6.7%
-7.5%
-12.7%
-6.9%
0.4%
1.0%
-2.6%
19
0.4%
52.7%
4.6%
3.3%
8.4%
-8.3%
5.5%
0.5%
0.9%
3.4%
20
0.3%
54.2%
4.5%
3.5%
5.1%
-7.6%
-2.9%
0.8%
1.9%
6.4%
21
20.2%
46.4%
4.4%
22.7%
18.5%
23.2%
21.6%
1.1%
2.3%
0.1%
22
26.1%
37.9%
4.3%
24.2%
55.4%
30.8%
51.9%
1.2%
0.7%
-3.9%
23
14.3%
34.2%
4.3%
19.7%
13.8%
16.6%
11.7%
1.5%
0.4%
1.2%
24
9.1%
32.3%
4.2%
13.1%
20.2%
5.6%
8.3%
1.7%
1.6%
3.6%
25
0.8%
-7.7%
0.6%
-6.7%
1.8%
3.2%
26
44.3%
4.2%
4.1%
2.2%
7.2%
33.0%
23.5%
50.2%
77.3%
42.7%
64.2%
0.9%
2.7%
-1.3%
27
22.0%
19.9%
4.1%
30.1%
29.9%
17.8%
23.9%
1.6%
-0.7%
-5.6%
28
4.8%
19.5%
4.1%
6.7%
4.8%
5.9%
7.5%
2.5%
-0.4%
7.5%
29
-8.5%
22.0%
4.0%
-8.9%
-22.8%
-14.4%
-15.4%
3.2%
7.8%
-6.1%
30
45.1%
15.6%
4.0%
40.8%
74.6%
76.9%
68.2%
1.5%
-1.3%
-2.3%
31
13.0%
14.2%
4.0%
13.2%
14.8%
19.9%
18.6%
3.0%
-0.4%
13.8%
32
-0.3%
14.7%
4.0%
-2.7%
-7.0%
-1.0%
-5.8%
2.7%
11.8%
1.0%
33
22.0%
12.4%
4.0%
26.0%
25.3%
21.2%
31.1%
2.1%
1.9%
6.9%
34
-9.7%
14.2%
3.9%
-10.5%
-1.5%
-20.9%
-8.8%
2.7%
5.6%
1.2%
35
16.4%
12.5%
3.9%
21.1%
35.0%
8.2%
27.2%
3.1%
1.6%
3.5%
36
13.6%
11.4%
3.9%
15.0%
19.8%
10.9%
22.7%
3.5%
4.0%
0.7%
37
20.1%
9.7%
3.9%
13.6%
25.3%
35.1%
41.5%
3.9%
1.0%
3.7%
38
-7.2%
10.8%
3.9%
-10.9%
-9.0%
-5.6%
-7.6%
4.8%
4.7%
-9.2%
39
39.3%
8.0%
3.9%
29.9%
31.4%
79.4%
65.7%
4.2%
1.0%
-0.3%
40
14.7%
7.2%
3.9%
4.1%
23.6%
29.5%
45.2%
5.2%
4.5%
-5.1%
41
-8.0%
8.0%
3.8%
3.0%
-16.7%
-24.5%
-25.8%
6.6%
-0.7%
12.1%
42
-4.2%
8.6%
3.8%
-5.5%
11.2%
-21.0%
6.3%
6.5%
16.9%
13.2%
43
20.2%
7.4%
3.8%
23.0%
12.4%
22.0%
15.7%
4.4%
8.7%
5.7%
44
12.9%
6.8%
3.8%
21.9%
18.1%
-0.7%
8.1%
3.8%
5.2%
-1.1%
45
-23.1%
9.0%
3.8%
-21.1%
-0.2%
-42.8%
-25.8%
6.9%
4.6%
4.4%
46
-23.3%
12.2%
3.8%
-29.7%
-25.5%
-32.6%
-17.4%
8.0%
5.7%
9.2%
47
38.7%
9.0%
3.8%
33.8%
50.8%
58.8%
57.4%
5.8%
7.8%
16.8%
48
27.3%
7.3%
3.8%
17.5%
46.5%
36.9%
57.8%
5.1%
12.9%
-0.7%
49
2.7%
7.3%
3.7%
-9.4%
1.3%
19.2%
24.2%
5.1%
1.4%
-1.2%
50
10.1%
6.9%
3.7%
7.3%
3.6%
16.8%
21.8%
7.2%
3.5%
-1.2%
51
24.6%
5.7%
3.7%
18.2%
22.1%
50.1%
38.2%
10.4%
4.1%
-4.0%
52
29.7%
4.5%
3.7%
32.7%
15.2%
52.9%
22.4%
11.3%
1.9%
53
-3.2%
4.8%
3.7%
-7.6%
14.4%
-12.0%
17.8%
14.7%
9.4%
40.4%
54
26.1%
3.9%
3.7%
19.9%
27.4%
19.9%
40.8%
10.5%
29.1%
3.9%
0.7%
55
19.2%
3.4%
3.7%
15.2%
27.5%
21.3%
48.0%
8.8%
7.4%
15.5%
56
0.3%
3.5%
3.7%
-0.6%
17.7%
-14.4%
7.7%
9.8%
14.0%
31.0%
57
31.6%
2.7%
3.7%
33.5%
33.2%
28.4%
30.3%
7.7%
20.3%
24.5%
58
12.9%
2.5%
3.7%
14.0%
21.7%
1.5%
13.3%
6.2%
15.1%
-2.7%
59
-0.1%
2.6%
3.7%
7.6%
-2.3%
-13.1%
-6.2%
5.5%
2.9%
9.7%
60
14.6%
2.3%
3.7%
11.8%
25.1%
13.8%
29.6%
6.4%
6.1%
18.1%
61
27.2%
1.9%
3.7%
36.9%
31.2%
18.7%
15.4%
8.4%
13.3%
6.2%
62
-6.0%
2.0%
3.7%
0.6%
-13.5%
-18.7%
-23.6%
7.8%
9.7%
19.3%
63
41.3%
1.5%
3.7%
43.2%
26.8%
53.7%
40.8%
5.6%
15.3%
9.4%
64
11.1%
1.4%
3.7%
6.8%
22.1%
4.7%
35.5%
3.5%
7.2%
18.2%
65
10.7%
1.3%
3.7%
2.5%
19.7%
12.4%
28.2%
2.9%
11.2%
-7.8%
66
-0.5%
1.3%
3.7%
2.0%
-5.9%
-3.9%
2.8%
3.9%
-5.1%
31.7%
67
34.8%
1.0%
3.7%
37.3%
37.6%
35.6%
28.7%
5.6%
16.1%
-0.9%
68
16.1%
0.9%
3.7%
20.8%
13.4%
13.2%
21.5%
5.2%
2.1%
15.9%
69
27.1%
0.7%
3.7%
31.7%
31.0%
15.3%
38.9%
5.3%
8.4%
13.1%
70
18.4%
0.6%
3.7%
34.9%
18.2%
1.3%
-8.6%
4.9%
10.2%
-9.0%
71
24.0%
0.5%
3.7%
29.3%
5.4%
50.4%
3.9%
4.7%
-1.8%
21.5%
72
-8.1%
0.6%
3.7%
-13.2%
0.6%
-21.2%
-3.2%
5.9%
12.6%
Govt Long Term Bond

S&P 500
9
TSM
10
TSE 300
0.1%
43.6%
38.7%
38.9%
3.4%
-8.4%
-14.5%
-24.9%
4.7%
-24.9%
-28.3%
-31.3%
-5.3%
-43.4%
-43.9%
-39.4%
16.8%
-8.2%
-9.8%
-18.4%
-0.1%
54.0%
57.6%
54.3%
10.0%
-1.4%
4.3%
-6.7%
5.0%
47.7%
44.0%
28.2%
7.5%
33.9%
32.3%
22.9%
0.2%
-35.0%
-34.6%
-27.5%
5.5%
31.1%
28.2%
-3.1%
6.0%
-0.4%
2.8%
2.3%
6.1%
-9.8%
-7.2%
-20.1%
0.9%
-11.6%
-9.9%
-7.5%
3.2%
20.3%
15.9%
17.7%
2.1%
25.9%
28.4%
12.1%
2.8%
19.7%
21.3%
12.0%
10.7%
36.4%
38.0%
44.5%
-0.1%
-8.1%
-5.9%
-6.1%
-2.6%
5.7%
3.6%
-6.4%
3.4%
5.5%
2.2%
5.9%
6.4%
18.8%
20.3%
15.7%
57.8%
0.1%
31.7%
29.4%
-3.9%
24.0%
20.8%
4.8%
1.2%
18.4%
13.5%
-4.1%
3.6%
-1.0%
0.6%
-7.4%
7.2%
52.6%
50.1%
38.3%
-1.3%
31.5%
25.2%
19.1%
-5.6%
6.6%
8.3%
11.7%
7.5%
-10.8%
-10.3%
-17.9%
-6.1%
43.4%
45.0%
29.6%
-2.3%
12.0%
13.1%
-2.8%
13.8%
0.5%
0.8%
12.6%
1.0%
26.9%
27.4%
22.4%
6.9%
-8.7%
-10.2%
0.1%
1.2%
22.8%
21.0%
13.1%
3.5%
16.5%
16.2%
29.0%
0.7%
12.5%
14.4%
5.2%
3.7%
-10.1%
-8.7%
-4.6%
-9.2%
24.0%
28.7%
7.4%
-0.3%
11.1%
14.2%
29.2%
-7.0%
-5.1%
-8.5%
-10.9%
12.1%
4.0%
0.1%
3.3%
13.2%
14.3%
16.1%
14.2%
19.1%
5.7%
19.0%
16.9%
-1.1%
-14.7%
-18.2%
0.8%
4.4%
-26.5%
-27.2%
-15.8%
9.2%
37.2%
38.7%
11.4%
16.8%
23.9%
26.7%
0.6%
-0.7%
-7.2%
-4.2%
5.2%
-1.2%
6.6%
7.5%
42.5%
-1.2%
18.4%
23.0%
56.4%
-4.0%
32.4%
32.7%
14.2%
1.9%
-4.9%
-3.7%
-16.3%
40.4%
21.4%
20.9%
19.7%
0.7%
22.5%
22.0%
26.3%
15.5%
6.3%
4.5%
9.1%
31.0%
32.2%
32.2%
13.4%
24.5%
18.5%
16.2%
21.4%
-2.7%
5.2%
1.7%
-6.2%
9.7%
16.8%
18.0%
22.6%
18.1%
31.5%
29.0%
6.1%
6.2%
-3.2%
-6.0%
-8.2%
19.3%
30.6%
34.7%
14.1%
9.4%
7.7%
9.8%
-5.1%
18.2%
10.0%
11.1%
41.6%
-7.8%
1.3%
-0.1%
-9.7%
31.7%
37.4%
36.8%
26.6%
-0.9%
23.1%
21.4%
25.5%
15.9%
33.4%
31.3%
11.6%
13.1%
28.6%
24.4%
2.1%
-9.0%
21.0%
25.5%
28.0%
21.5%
-9.1%
-11.1%
11.2%
0.993
0.994
0.996
0.998
0.994
0.999

15% Increment: Lgcap/Gwt Smlcap/Gwt Smlcap/Val Govt Long

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15% Increment: Lgcap/Gwt Smlcap/Gwt Smlcap/Val Govt Long

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increasing with inflation

50% LgCap/Gwt+20% SmlCap/Gwt+15% SmlCap/Val+15% Govt Long

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then click on Calculate Survival Ra

LgCap/Gwt SmlCap/Gwt SmlCap/Val

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then click on Calculate Survival Rates

Govt Long Term Bond

Max Withdrawal Rate

Govt Long Term Bond

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