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6N:216: Business Analytics Hong Kong, March 2012

INSTRUCTOR Johannes Ledolter, Department of Management Sciences S352 PBB Telephone: 319-621-1322 (mobile phone) e-mail: Johannes-ledolter@uiowa.edu TIMES: March 10-11 and March 17-18, 2012

REQUIRED TEXT Ledolter, Johannes and Burrill, Claude W.: Statistical Quality Control: Strategies and Tools for Continual Improvement, New York, NY: John Wiley, 1999. [Selected chapters, especially Chapters 6 through 12, 14, and 17] Class notes posted on the web server (ICON). Minitab Statistical Software. Six-months license (US $ 29.99) and free trials available at http://www.minitab.com/en-US/academic/licensing-options.aspx http://www.minitab.com/en-US/products/minitab/free-trial.aspx Free University remote-login access through https://virtualdesktop.uiowa.edu OBJECTIVES This course provides an introduction to techniques of statistical analysis useful in management decision-making. You learn how to practice a scientific data-based approach to problem formulation and solution, understand and use statistical techniques in the context of real data analysis, and recognize and remedy defects in statistical analyses. We survey topics such as data plots, descriptive statistics, description of association among categorical or continuous variables, probability distributions (including the binomial and normal distributions), data collection, sampling schemes, statistical inference (confidence intervals, tests of hypotheses), statistical process control and capability indexes, and regression modeling. The goal is to show you the power of good statistical practice. You learn how to appreciate the importance of sound statistical methods when making decisions and you gain experience implementing these techniques in the context of real data analysis and problem solving. COURSE OUTLINE The course we will cover the following chapters in the Ledolter/Burrill text: Chapter 6: Measurements and their Importance for Quality Chapter 7: Analysis of Information: Graphical Displays and Numerical Summaries Chapter 8: Modeling Variability: Introduction to Probability/Probability Distributions Chapter 9: Sample Surveys 1

Chapter 10: Statistical Inference under Simple Random Sampling Chapter 11: Acceptance Sampling Plans (Introduction only) Chapter 12: Statistical Process Control: Control Charts (Introduction only) Chapter 14: Principles of Effective Experimental Design (Introduction only) Chapter 17: Regression Analysis GRADES The grade you earn in this course is determined by your performance on three brief quizzes on March 10 (covering the readings prior to the course), March 17 (covering the material of the first week), and an open-book take-home quiz to be submitted electronically by March 31 [50 percent] a written group project. I am flexible about the due date of the project. However, I will need the projects by April 30 at the latest. [40 percent] class participation and homeworks [10 percent] I will follow the recommendations on the grade distribution suggested by the MBA committee; roughly 50 percent As and Bs, and C or worse when basic mastery of the material is in doubt. COMPUTER SOFTWARE We will use EXCEL for our computer work. EXCEL is the standard spreadsheet package in the business world, and you will learn how to carry out your analyses with this package. Unfortunately, EXCELs statistics components are far from optimal. More powerful packages for statistical analysis are available (such as MINITAB, SAS, SPSS). These packages are easy to use, and through a copy and paste operation you can go from the spreadsheet in one program to the spreadsheet of the other. Even some of the simpler statistical methods are not handled well with EXCEL, and in these situations we will switch to more powerful methods such as Minitab. RULES FOR HOMEWOKS AND THE PROJECT Homework assignments and the project are group-based and should be carried out by the study groups. Each member of the group will be awarded the same number of points on the project. It is my sincere hope that no student in this class does work which is not his or her own. However, it seems prudent to clarify in advance the policy on cheating. If I determine that any assignment was not written solely by the student whose identification number appears on the homework, the student's semester grade will receive a zero (0) for the project/homework and may receive an F for the class. In general, the decision of the Professor may be appealed to the relevant Collegiate Dean, the Dean of Students, and so on in accordance with University Policy. The Honor Code for the Tippie College of Business will determine the appropriate appeal process. The Honor Code may be found at 2

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/upo/advising/honorcode.html In your project you should apply one or more of the studied statistical or modeling techniques to a real-world problem. The group is responsible for formulating the project, collecting the appropriate data, running the required analyses, and summarizing the findings. The project report should consist of a type-written report of about 15 pages (excluding appendices). Relevant statistical tables and computer output must be put in an appendix. A listing of the raw data, with a summary of data definitions and their sources must be included in the appendix and on a computer disk. The report must start with a one-page executive summary. The write-up should discuss the motivation behind the project, describe the data and the way they were obtained, and discuss the statistical analysis. Furthermore, successful projects should give a discussion of the appropriateness of the analysis and should reveal any possible shortcomings. The findings must be interpreted and the conclusions and implications of your work must be clearly spelled out. Ideally I would like you to study a topic that arises from your day-to-day work assignments. But, if you are short of ideas, talk to me for suggestions.