Malaysia
Sector Update
9 January 2012
Neutral (unchanged)
Property - Developer
Cloudy outlook
Maintain Neutral. We expect interest on property stocks to remain lackluster in 2012 due to: 1) the anticipation of a slowdown in property demand and 2) policy risks. Whilst the continued strength in property demand is positive for developers, there is a risk that further rise in property prices and household debts could lead to more cooling measures by the authorities. Nevertheless, we believe the negatives have largely been priced in for now and 1-year forward earnings are safe-guarded by considerable unbilled sales. Future share price catalysts would revolve around news-flows on government land wins. Policy overhang resurfaced. The introduction of guidelines on responsible finance by the BNM and the additional 5% RPGT (on properties disposed within 2 years) announced during Budget 2012 are unlikely to lead to a significant drop in activities/prices in the physical property market, we believe. We think there is still a possibility for further property cooling measures due to the continued strength in property demand. This will hit sentiment on the sector which is currently dominated by investor-driven demand. Risk of a demand slowdown. We believe the property cycle is peaking and expect a slower sales growth going forward. The Sep11 statistic already signaled a 8.8% QoQ decline in property transactions and 1.3% QoQ contraction in House Price Index (HPI). Also, we see increasing competition due to huge incoming supply of residential properties (+10.7% YoY in 2011 vs. -4.6% YoY in 2010) including those under the 5/95 scheme introduced 2 years ago. These completed projects could flush the market with ample supply of varieties. Government land wins may lift near-term share prices. We expect some awards in 2012 Unilever, RRIM land in Sg Buloh and Pudu Jail redevelopment. Frontrunners include UEM Land, Bandaraya, MRCB, and Bolton. This would provide shot-term trading opportunities. Demand for properties with LRT/MRT stations in their vicinity will remain strong. The MRT Circle Line, likely to be announced in 2H12, may create another round of buying spree at selected property projects. Key beneficiaries YTL Land and Mah Sing. Potential downside priced in. At our target prices, developers under our coverage are trading at 40% discount to our RNAV estimates vs. 50-70% discount during 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Property demand will be somewhat less vulnerable than it did in 2008 due to market liquidity and low interest rates. Moreover, developers today are backed by considerable unbilled sales, providing near-term earnings visibility.
UEM Land (Hold; RM2.02 TP). The largest developer in Malaysia (in term of landbank and market capitalisation) and land owner in Nusajaya with total remaining landbank of more than 4,068 acres (73% in Nusajaya, 27% outside Nusajaya) and estimated RM31b GDV. Potential surprises could come from more government land developments. Khazanah is the major shareholder, with a 67.5% stake in UEM Land. SP Setia (Not rated) - A versatile property developer with a spectrum of mid-to-high end products. SPSB has 5,229 cres undeveloped landbank with an e.RM54b GDV. Next key earnings drivers include its RM6b KL Eco City, RM10b Setia City and e.RM8b MOH Bangsar project. In end-Sep11, its major shareholder, PNB has offered a conditional take over with RM3.90 offer price for SPSB shares and RM0.91 for its warrants. Sunway (Hold; RM2.28 TP) One of the leading property and construction groups in Malaysia (new merged entity of Sunway City and Sunway Holdings). It has RM2.9b outstanding orderbook YTD (construction) and RM1.6b unbilled sales as at Sep11 (property). Mah Sing (Hold; RM1.76 TP) - A versatile property developer with a spectrum of mid-to-high end products. MSGB is famous with its fast turnaround strategy. It has 1,070 acres remaining landbank (Klang Valley, Penang and Johor Bahru) with an estimated RM13b GDV. Glomac (Hold; RM0.88 TP) - A versatile property developer with a spectrum of low-to-high end products. Next key earnings catalysts include its 90 acres prime-located Puchong land worth RM1b GDV. It is our preferred pick for the property sector.
UEM Land Hold SP Setia NR Sunway Hold Mah Sing Hold Glomac Hold Simple average
Kim Eng Hong Kong is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad
NR = Not Rated; Source: Maybank IB ROE (%) Div yld (%) Net gearing RNAV (x) FY12E FY12E FY12E (RM/Sh) 6.5 0.7 0.2 3.37 11.0 3.3 0.2 NR 11.8 2.3 0.4 3.79 19.4 5.7 0.6 2.94 4.0 4.9 0.2 1.47 5.3
Property - Developer
Slowing ahead
Optimistic sales target. Most developers under our coverage have achieved more than or are on track to hit their 2011 sales target. In light of that, they have set higher sales targets of RM0.5-4b for 2012, or +2550% YoY growth. Given a weaker economic outlook for 2012, we have conservatively assumed lower sales forecasts for 2012 especially for developers which have less exposure to township developments.
Table 1: Developers under our coverage sets higher sales targets (+25-50% YoY) for 2012; Huge unbilled sales would provide short-term earnings visibility; Net gearing remains healthy at below 0.5x
Company FYE 2011 actual / YTD sales (RM b) 0.4 2012 sales target (RM b) 0.5 YoY growth (%) 25.0 Unbilled sales (RM b) 0.6 (1.1x of 2012 revenue) 2.1 (1.4x) 2.8 (1.1x) 1.6 (1.3x) 1.7 (0.9x) GDV breakdown by project (township:nontownship) 55:45 Net gearing (x) Our sales forecasts (RM b) 0.5
Glomac
Apr
3Q11 incoming supply increased by +3% QoQ, whilst property demand declined by -9% QoQ
3Q11 HPI down by 1.3% QoQ, the first decline since 2008 Global Financial Crisis
700,000 180.0 160.0 140.0 500,000 120.0 400,000 300,000 200,000 40.0 100,000 0
Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-11
Mar-02 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
700,000
600,000
600,000
500,000
50,000 400,000
40,000
300,000 30,000
200,000
20.0 0.0
Sep-11
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
0
Sep-11
Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-10
Incoming supply
demand
Incoming supply
Our preference. We like developers with: 1) strong balance sheet which provides more room for landbanking exercise, and 2) larger exposure to township developments which provides steady bread-andbutter sales. Also, township developments, which are largely dominated by owner occupiers, are less vulnerable to policy risk. Glomac and SP Setia have clean balance sheet with net cash of 8.6sen and 4.6sen respectively. The former is looking to expand its landbank aggressively. Among the developers under our coverage, SP Setia and Glomac have considerable exposures into township developments.
9 January 2012
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Property - Developer
Government land developments: Preference on the Unilever land. In our view, any land wins may provide short-term trading opportunities. Among the several government land bids (see table below), we are particularly excited on the Unilever land where UEM Land can gain an access given: 1) Its strategic location at Bangsar, one of the premier living areas in KL. The land has good accessibility and connectivity supported by the Bangsar LRT station and KL Sentral transportation hub nearby. 2) Lower upfront infrastructure costs and shorter time to complete the entire development compared to the 3,000 acres RRIM greenfield land in Sungai Buloh. The Unilever land is surrounded by matured townships like Lucky Garden, Pantai Hills, Bukit Bangsar, Taman SA, Bukit Bandaraya, etc. and we expect offices within the development to benefit from rising urban decentralization trends. 3) Relatively lower project risks versus the Pudu Jail redevelopment project. The latter is facing stiff competition from existing offices/ retail malls and future government land developments in, and surrounding the KL CBD like the Sg Besi Airport, Warisan Merdeka and KL International Financial District (KLIFD) developments. Moreover, residential apartments to be built on the former jail site will discourage buying interest from the superstitious local buyers. 4) PHB could be the potential buyer of the office/retail portions at the Unilever redevelopment. It has been actively investing/acquiring properties (for e.g. DEMC Specialist Hospital in Shah Alam, Nu Sentral in KL Sentral, Tesco Setia Alam, Menara Bumiputra Commerce in Jalan Raja Laut, etc) since its establishment in 2005. PHB is owned by Yayasan Amanah Hartanah Bumiputera.
Sg Besi
486 acres
Min. Of Defense
1Malaysia Development Bhd (30%), Qatar Investment Authority (40%) AFFB, Boustead Holdings 1MDB-Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Development Co
15,000
3 4
10,000 26,000
Jalan Ipoh
245 acres
Min. of Defense
NA
9 January 2012
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Property - Developer
Naza KL Metropolis
Off Jln Duta, within Menara Matrade and next to Sri Hartamas Near KLCC
62.5 acres
Govt. of Malaysia
Naza TTDI
15,000
8 9
378 acres
20,000 5,000
Surrounding 40 acres Stadium Merdeka, off Jln Maharajalela Along Jln Bangsar (exUnilever HQ and Factory) 19 acres
10 Unilever land
Pelaburan Hartanah UEML, Bandaraya, Bumiput era Bhd MRCB, Sime (PHB) Properties and Mah Sing
4,000-5,000 Mixed developmentoffices, retail and service apartments. PHB has shortlisted 5 candidates for the project 9,000 Mixed development; Recent dispute between Mah Sing and landowner over the 4.1 acres JV project (60:40) in that area
Pekeliling area
58 acres
119,000
9 January 2012
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Total landbank (acres) Total GDV (RMb) Official/unofficial div payout policy (%) Major shareholders
284 13.5 NA Tan Sri Dato' Seri Dr Jeffrey Cheah (45%), GIC (12.5%)
1,070 13.0 40.0 Tan Sri Dato' Sri Leong Hoy Kum (34%), PNB (19%)
c.500 4.0 40.0 Tan Sri Dato' Mohamed Mansor bin Fateh Din (20.5%), Datuk Fong Loong Tuck (17.5%), Dato' Fateh Iskandar bin Tan Sri Dato' Mohamed Mansor (14.3%)
2012 EPS Gross DPS NTA* Valuation CY12 PER (x) Gross div yield (%) P/NTA (x) P/RNAV (x) Net gearing (x)* Key catalysts: 33.6 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.11 RM1.7b unbilles sales as at Sep'11, or 0.9x of our 2012 forecast; Completion of flagship developments in 2012 which could boost property demand; full-year earnings contribution from Sunrise 19.6 4.6 2.1 Net cash RM2.8b unbilled sales as at Oct'11, or 1.1x of our FY12 forecast; RM7b KL Eco City, RM8b Setia Federal Hill and RM8b Setia City 8.6 3.1 1.1 0.6 0.46 RM1.6b unbilled property sales (1.3x of our 2012 forecast) as at Sep'11 and RM2.9b outstanding construction order book; MRT projects 7.2 7.6 1.6 0.7 0.38 RM2.1b unbilled sales as at Sep'11, or 1.4x of our 2012 forecast; RM3.2b Icon City and RM1.4b M City 5.2 7.7 0.8 0.6 Net cash RM555m unbilled sales as at Oct'11 or 1.1x of our FY12 forecast; RM1b GDV Puchong project 6.7 2.0 1.09 19.7 17.7 1.88 28.5 7.6 2.2 26.9 14.9 1.24 15.6 6.2 1.06
9 January 2012
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Weakness
Lack of proven track record; long gestation period for Nusajaya development; concentration risk as 73% of total landbank and 62% of remaining GDV are in Nusajaya; integration risk; relatively premium valuation compared to its peers Potential participation in government land developments in Singapore and Klang Valley; Increasing investments in Nusajaya would boost property demand and value over time; Cheaper alternative to pricey Singapore; Improving bilateral ties with Singapore Political and execution risks involving bilateral relations between Malaysia-Singapore; Oversupply in Mont Kiara area; Increasing competition in the property industry; Downturn in property sector
Less exposures in affordable housing and township developments (only 22% of total GDV); high net gearing of 0.46x;
Lack of a flagship project which can define Mah Sing; less exposures in township developments (only 31% of total GDV) which can provide bread and butter property sales especially during the downturn in property sector
Opportunity
Sizeable land acquisition which allow it to tap the affordable housing segment which provides bread-andbutter sales and support long-term growth
Potential enbloc sales in Glomac Damansara (retail) and Plaza Kelana Jaya IV
Threat
Uncertainties in China property market (c.24% of its effective GDV is from China); Uncertainties in Singapore property market (unsold units/remaining projects accounted for c. 5% of total GDV); Oversupply in Mont Kiara area; Increasing competition in the property industry; Downturn in property sector
Increasing competition in the property industry; downturn in property sector; Oversupply in Mont Kiara (Icon Mont Kiara project)
Sources: Maybank-IB
9 January 2012
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Property - Developer
APPENDIX 1
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system: BUY HOLD SELL Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months Total return is expected to be between -5% to 10% in the next 12 months Total return is expected to be below -5% in the next 12 months
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can, should, could or might occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forwardlooking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and Maybank Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
9 January 2012
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Property - Developer
APPENDIX 1
Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in Singapore)
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein maybe subject to change. Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd ("KERPL") in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. Recipients of this report are to contact KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. As of 9 January 2012, KERPL does not have an interest in the said company/companies.
Published / Printed by
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com
9 January 2012
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