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Background Briefing: South China Sea: Revival of the Code of Conduct? Carlyle A. Thayer April 23, 2013

[client name deleted] South China Sea issues are becoming more prominent. Can you provide your assessment of the following? 1) What do you think about Chinas sudden proposal of negotiating a COC [Code of Conduct] with ASEAN? Is it true that China has certain advantages if the country negotiates with ASEAN for the time being? ANSWER: There is uncertainty among analysts that China specifically proposed a meeting with ASEAN to discuss the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea as the topic. Agence France-Presse quoted Indonesias Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa in great detail about this. But other sources report they cannot get confirmation. They say China asked for a meeting with ASEAN to discuss commemorative activities to mark the tenth anniversary of their strategic partnership. 2) Many sources have said that China has raised the COC issue just to lessen tensions before ASEAN Summit from April 24 to 25 in Brunei; and that in reality, it is impossible for negotiations to take place in the coming time? ANSWER: If the reports are true they indicate that China is playing a tactical game. The timing of these reports on the eve of the ASEAN Summit and related meetings this week suggest China wants to deflect any criticism. By proposing talks China hopes that ASEAN members will go quiet in order not to disrupt these talks. China hopes to disarm any criticism by the United States and other maritime powers. China is seeking to drive a wedge between ASEAN and the US by playing on differences within ASEAN. China will drag out the process of talks on a COC. First it will object to the behaviour of the Philippines and try to link progress on a COC with the Philippines dropping its legal action with the United Nations. 3) What do you and the international community of scholars who are experienced in researching Asia-Pacific issues think about and forecast the 12th Shangri La Dialogue in late May-early June in Singapore? ANSWER: The Shangri-La Dialogue must address the key regional security issues if it is to remain the regions premier dialogue mechanism on security issues. The Shangri-La Dialogue will address six major and important themes in its plenary

2 sessions: the US approach to regional security; defending national interests and preventing conflict; military modernization and strategic transparency; Chinas role in global security; regional and global institutions and Asian security; and advancing defence cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. The South China Sea will be certainly discussed but it is not formally listed on the official agenda. There will be special consideration of six major topics in small discussion groups: avoiding incidents at sea; Afghan draw down and regional security; missile defence in the Asia-Pacific; new military technologies and doctrines; defence diplomacy and conflict resolution; and the cyber dimension of Asian security. All of these topics will get a full airing. But the Shangri-La Dialogue is only a dialogue and it will reach no formal conclusions. 4) Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will, for the first time, make an opening speech at the coming 12th Shangri La Dialogue as a key speaker. What do you expect from his message? ANSWER: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung bears a heavy burden of presenting a comprehensive presentation on Vietnams foreign, security and national defence policies. These three inter-related sets of issues have never been addressed by a Vietnamese head of state in an open forum before. Prime Minister Dung should address four themes: the successes and challenges of Vietnams domestic policies and how they will shape Vietnams future role in regional affairs; how Vietnam can contribute to regional and global peace; how Vietnam can contribute to regional security and defence cooperation; and how Vietnam can contribute to regional development. Prime Minister Dung can be expected to present Vietnam as a confident nation willing to play its role in promoting Southeast Asia as a zone of peace, cooperation and development. The Prime Minster will need to be specific in his evaluation of the opportunities and challenges facing ASEAN as it builds a Political-Security Community. 5) What can ASEAN and Vietnam expect from the 12th Shangri La Dialogue? ANSWER: If the Prime Minister gives an excellent keynote address at the opening dinner, he will play a key role in shaping the discussion that follows. Vietnam will see its prestige rise because Vietnam will be viewed as a contributor to regional security. Vietnam can expect that all security issues of concern to itself will be fully addressed. Vietnam can expect to learn much about the key security trends and the perspectives of various countries on key issues. Vietnam will also be able to gauge the likely course of Sino-American relations through statements by their senior officials. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Revival of the Code of Conduct, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 23, 2013. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com