Curso Caudales Ambientales, Lima, Per, 25 27 Noviembre, 2009 Jay OKeeffe, UNESCO-IHE & Rebecca Tharme, The Nature Conservancy
Holistic Methodologies:
response to flow change and effects on subsistence users who depend directly on river for livelihoods
Holistic Methodologies: Examples Building Block Methodology (BBM) Downstream Response to Imposed Flow Transformation Benchmarking Methodology Savannah Process (ESWM) (TNC)
Benchmarking Methodology -7 key flow statistics
(DRIFT)
6 3 3
0
Significantly modified
Ma x im um de pth (m ) Me an velo ci ty (m.sec-1) 1 .0 2 Wett ed p erim ete r (m x 1 0 ) D 0 .1 5 .0 0 .0 0.0 0.1 1 .0 10 .0 1 00.0 10 00.0 -1) D ischarge (m 3.se c
( a)
Mean annual flow Flow regime class Annual Proportional Flow Deviation - APFD 1:5, 5, 20 year ARI Mean wet season flow
10
Ecological requirements affected - reduction in floods Ecological requirements affected - reduction in low flows
(b )
0 0 5 0 10 0 150
3 (IV)
Severity/ confidence
( c)
D istance (m)
Social consecquence
I.
Originally developed in South Africa and Australia, followed by U.K. and U.S.A. Process for developing environmental flows for diverse situations limited resources/data to extensive resources/data Four levels:
Hydrologic Analysis (desktop, ecologically relevant suite of indices Ecological Flow Components) Expert Panel Approach Field Studies and Modeling Adaptive Refinement
Level I
Level II
Level III
Level IV
Adaptive refinement Holistic expert panel Holistic field studies Holistic hydrological analysis approach and modeling Range of variability analysis Initiate flows and monitoring to Environmental flow components move toward Foundation for seeking funding and support to move toward
Months 6 - 12
Level III: Field Studies and Modeling Years 2 5 + Level IV: Adaptive Refinement
~ $100,000
Level III: Field Studies and Modeling Level IV: Adaptive Refinement
~ $1,000,000 +
Precautionary stand alone approach augment with more comprehensive approaches over time
For systems with extensive existing data And/or cases where funding and time available to
collect new data Situations where greater certainty is required
Field studies and modeling to reduce uncertainties and address knowledge gaps
Models for meander migration and sediment transport; Key flow range = 15,000 20,000 cfs
Required 1 in 10 years
Cottonwood recruitment box model (rate of recession) Data on fish utilization of floodplains (duration for rearing)
Q (cms)
Spawning surveys
(2) Sociological
Identify PAR Describe river use and health profiles Develop predictive capacity of social impacts of river changes
(4) Economic
Calculate compensation and mitigation costs for PAR
Output to decision-maker
As part of the DRIFT database analysis, the links between changing river condition and the socio-economic impacts for riparian communities (people who rely on the river for subsistence) are automatically quantified Both methods are well described in detailed user manuals, but DRIFT requires more technical knowledge, particularly of the database analysis model, and requires more initial data input, The BBM is more flexible and robust in data/knowledge poor conditions, but ultimately, both are simply different frameworks for the analysis of whatever data/knowledge is available or can be collected, and this governs the confidence in the final recommendations.
Gracias