Dissertation Report On A STUDY OF DEMAND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

By

SAINENI NITISH KUMAR A0101911286 MBA Class of 2013

Under the Supervision of DR. Rushina Singhi ASSISTANT PROFESSOR DEPARTMENT OF OPERATIONS In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Business Administration
At

AMITY BUSINESS SCHOOL AMITY UNIVERSITY UTTAR PRADESH SECTOR 125, NOIDA - 201303, UTTAR PRADESH, INDIA 2013

DECLARATION

Title of Project Report The Study of Demand forecasting using artificial neural networks in supply chain management I declare (a)That the work presented for assessment in this Summer Internship Report is my own, that it has not previously been presented for another assessment and that my debts (for words, data, arguments and ideas) have been appropriately acknowledged (b)That the work conforms to the guidelines for presentation and style set out in the relevant documentation.

Date:

SAINENI NITISH KUMAR A0101911286 MBA Class of 2013

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CERTIFICATE

I, Dr.Rushina Singhi hereby certify that Saineni Nitish Kumar student of Masters of Business Administration at Amity Business School, Amity University Uttar Pradesh has completed the Project Report on The Study of Demand Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks in Supply Chain Management, under my guidance.

Dr. Rushina Singhi Assistant Professor Department of Operations

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to thank our honourable Director, Amity Business School Dr. Sanjeev Bansal for his blessings and guidance at this moment. I wish to express my deep sense of gratitude to my Faculty Guide, Dr. Rushina Singhi, Assistant Professor, Department of Operations, Amity Business School, for her able guidance and useful suggestions, which helped me in completing the project work, in time. Words are inadequate to thank Prof. S.S.Pal, Assistant Professor, Department of Operations, Amity Business School, for giving me this idea to do the project on this title, and for is valuable suggestions and continues motivation. Finally, yet importantly, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to my beloved parents for their help and wishes for the successful completion of this project

SAINENI NITISH KUMAR

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES 3.1 Purpose of the study 3.2 Research design 3.3 Research technique CHAPTER 4: DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS 4.1 Basic Principle of BP Neural Network 4.2 Learning Process of BP Neural Network 4.3 Neural Networks in super markets

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CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS REFERENCES

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LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE NO 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.2.1 4.2.2 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION basic artificial neural network basic BP network layer basic BP algorithm trained BP algorithm aggregation and disaggregation algorithm PAGE NO 16 17 18 20 23

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ABSTRACT

A manufacturing supply chain is a network of suppliers, factories, subcontractors, warehouses, distribution centres and retailers, through which raw materials are acquired then transformed to produce and deliver to the end customers. Such a supply chain network must satisfy customers demands at specified service levels and at the lowest possible cost. Demand forecasting is the main element to effectiveness and efficiency. However, as large number of varied models and products are marketed through a super market, several factors affect forecasting. Traditional forecasting approaches will not provide good estimation of demand. So, the demand was forecasted using Artificial Neural Networks which can reduce the errors that caused during forecasting. A poor forecasting model for the product demands in market may cause to decrease in the competitive capability, it also lose customers and increase costs. A real case in the product demand forecasting was studied by an artificial neural network (ANN) approach which is demonstrated in this paper. Interest in using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting has led to a tremendous change in research activities since the last decade. While, ANNs are there provide a great deal of promise, they also embody much uncertainty. Researchers, to date are still not able to understand about the effects of key factors on forecasting performance of ANNs. At times it is very difficult to understand the human behaviour, with the changes in human behaviour there may be demand or lack of demand for the product in the market. As ANNs learn from their past experience so, it can greatly improve the efficiency in market demands. This can eliminate the uncertainties in market demand and it can avoid limitations which are human error. This is an attempt to show that how technology is being used in management.

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