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IN ANY CORRESPONDENCE ON THIS SUBJECT PLEASE QUOTE APS/125/13 THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA

MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY P.O. BOX 7025 KAMPALA UGANDA

Date: 2nd May, 2013

REVIEW OF THE WEATHER IN MARCH AND THE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL AND MAY 2013 1.0 Review of the Weather in March 2013 The month of March marks the onset of March to May long rains in Uganda. Most parts of the country received enhanced rainfall during the second half of March. Heavy rainfall storms were experienced across the country including Easter holidays which were characterized by heavy rainfall storms reaching flood levels in urban areas including Kampala city. Enhanced rainfall was evident in all parts of the country but was pronounced in eastern, western and central parts of the country with Tororo recording the highest monthly total of 236mm followed by Entebbe with 213.7mm and the lowest was reported in Kotido in Karamoja with 41.4mm of rainfall. The onset of seasonal rainfall was reported to have started as it was predicted in the March May seasonal forecast released on 28th February, 2013. Most parts of the country experienced the onset of rainfall during the third and fourth week of March and the first week of April for the Northern parts of the country. During the month of March 2013, Cooler than average maximum temperatures were observed over most parts of the country compared with February 2013, where warmer than average maximum temperatures were observed over most parts of the country with eastern and northern parts recording positive maximum temperature anomalies. During March 2013, most stations reported enhanced rainfall in most parts of the country with most stations recording rainfall above Long Term Mean (LTM) (Figure1)

March_Obv_2013 Vs March_LTM Rainfall Performance


250 March Rainfall Totals (mm) 200 150 100 50 0

Rainfall Stations Mar_Obv Figure 1: Rainfall performance in March, 2013 Mar_LTM

2.0

Climate systems that affected the climate

Neutral conditions prevailed in the pacific ocean with slightly cooler than average occurring in the eastern equatorial pacific ocean. The rain bearing Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was quite active over our country hence wet conditions in most parts of the country. 3.0 Experienced Impacts

The reported enhanced rainfall experienced in most parts of the country impacted both positively and negatively on various sectors; In Agricultural sector, most farming communities took advantage of rains and planted in good; hence this is expected to result in good harvest. In pastoral areas, pastures improved significantly due to the good rains experienced across the country and replenishment of water reservoirs In some areas, heavy rainfall resulted into serious flooding that claimed some lives and destruction of property. Some families were displaced by flooding. 4.0 Expected Synoptic situation during the month of April May 2013 and

Prevailing warm sea surface temperature anormalies across much of western indian ocean is likely to trigger the influx of moisture into our country hence increasing wet conditions. The rainfall forecast for the months of April and May over most parts of the country is likely to
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receive enhanced rainfall. 5.0 Updated forecast for April and May 2013 Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall (more rain than usual) over most parts of Uganda. The breakdown of the forecast for each region is given as follows: a) Eastern region Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern:
(Jinja, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo) districts

The onset of the seasonal rains was as forecasted. Steady rains were experienced by end of March and with the period mid to end of April punctuated by occasional dry spells. The seasonal rains with occasional heavy storms reaching flood levels are expected to continue until end of May with cessation of rains expected in Early June. Overall, the region has a high chance of receiving near normal to above normal rains. Eastern Central:
(Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukedea, and Ngora) districts.

The onset of the seasonal rains was as forecasted towards the end of March with steady rains experienced by early April but punctuated by occasional dry spells. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until late May and cessation by early June. The region is expected to experience near normal to above normal rainfall. North Eastern region: (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak,
Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong) districts

The onset of the seasonal rains was delayed in this region and steady rains experienced by mid April but punctuated by occasional dry spells. This region received the lowest rainfall totals for both the month of March and April. The intermittent seasonal rains are expected to continue until early June and cessation by mid June. The region is expected to experience near normal rainfall. b) Northern region Eastern northern Parts:
Kaberamaido,Otuke) districts (Lira, Kitgum, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, Dokolo

The onset of the seasonal rains was as forecasted at the beginning of April with steady rains experienced by mid to late
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April but punctuated by occasional dry spells. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until June. An updated forecast for rainfall performance in the period June to August for this region will be released at the End of May. The region is expected to experience near normal to above normal rainfall. Central northern Parts :
and Kiryandongo) districts (Gulu, Apac, Pader, Lamwo Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam

The onset of the seasonal rains was as forecasted at the beginning of April with steady rains experienced by mid to late April but punctuated by occasional dry spells. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until June. An updated forecast for rainfall performance for the period June to August for this region will be released at the end of May. Near normal rainfall is expected to prevail in this region. North Western:
districts (Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani, Arua, Terego, Zombo, Nebbi, Koboko)

The onset of the March to May seasonal rains was as forecasted, with rains coming at the beginning of April. The steady rains were experienced by mid April but punctuated by occasional dry spells. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until June. An updated forecast for rainfall performance for the period June to August for this region will be released at the end of May. There is a high chance of this region receiving near normal rainfall. c) Western region Western Central:
(Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima and Kibaale) districts

The forecasted onset of the seasonal rains was as predicted and steady rains were established by end of March. This region received the above normal rains occasionally experiencing heavy storms that reached flooding levels especially in the lowlands below the Rwenzori Mountains. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until early June and cessation by mid June. The region is expected to receive near normal to above normal rainfall (more rain than usual). South Western:
(Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese) districts

The onset of the seasonal rains was as forecasted as rains


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established by mid March. Steady seasonal rains were established by mid of April reaching peak rains by end of April. Over the entire region received above normal rains with occasional heavy storm that reached flooding levels especially in Bushenyi, Mitooma, Buhweju and Kasese district. The rains are expected to continue and cessation is expected by end of May. The region is expected to receive near normal to above normal rainfall (more rain than usual). d) Lake Victoria Basin and Central areas

Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin:

(Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Eastern Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts

This region experienced early seasonal onset and steady rains had established by mid March. Steady seasonal rains continued through late March to early April, while late April was punctuated by occasional dry spells. The seasonal rains with occasional heavy storms reaching flood levels are expected to continue until end of May with cessation of rains expected in early June. Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall to above normal rainfall in this region. Western Parts of Central:
(Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Western Masaka, Lyantonde, and Rakai) districts

This region experienced onset of seasonal rainfall by mid March and steady rains were established by early April. Peak rains were experienced by end of mid to late April, while occasional dry spells were experienced in this region during the period. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until end of May with cessation of rains expected in Early June. There are high chances of near normal rainfall over several parts of this region.

Eastern parts of Central:

(Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma) districts

This region experienced onset of seasonal rainfall by mid March and steady rains were established by early April with rainfall peaking by mid April. Occasional dry spells were experienced in this region during the period. The seasonal rains are expected to continue until end of May with cessation of rains expected in Early June. Near normal to above normal rainfall is expected over this region.

6.0 Potential impacts for April and May Rainfall outlook The areas expected to receive Near Normal to Above Normal are likely to experience the following impacts; Good prospects for increased Agricultural production Improved conditions for pasture, foliage and water reservoirs Flooding, landslides/mudslides, displacement of people and destruction of property Outbreak of water related diseases

Michael S.Z. Nkalubo COMMISSIONER FOR METEOROLOGY