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How to win Uttar Pradesh?

This is a summary of the parliament elections held in UP from 1996 to 2004. Please take a note of the following before reading this article.

- Orange highlighted constituencies are those won by BJP or JD(U).

- A context is explained followed by an example of the data. The example constituency is chosen in a random manner and there may be one or more
constituencies which may fit the criteria

Highlights (Based on data analyzed from elections 1996 to 2004)

BJP will win majority of the seats in Uttar Pradesh, if the polling percentage crosses 75% mark.
BJP has a strong presence among middle class voters and government employees. This is evident from the postal vote results of election 2004. BJP
was ahead than other parties or equaled others in postal votes in 63 constituencies. There were extreme situations where BJP secured 4 times more
postal votes than all other parties (e.g Mathura). Hence we should concentrate more on this section and encourage more people to come out and
vote.
Independents and smaller parties are eating in to the vote share of the national parties and majority of the time BJP is on the receiving end. E.g. Dr.
M.M Joshi’s defeat in Allahabad last time is partly due to the presence of a large number of independents. BJP should investigate if any hidden hands
are behind this many independents appearing for election.
Lesser the number of candidates, advantage is for national parties and BJP has gained heavily in these situations (E.g. Gorakhpur, Maharajganj)
In the changed scenario, after tie up with Ajith Singh’s RLD, the combined team can now easily win 6-7 seats. These seats are as below

BIJNOR (SC) - RLD WON, in 2004

AMROHA - BJP + RLD will cross 4 lakh votes twice the value of the winner of 2004 elections

BAGHPAT - RLD Won in 2004 with BJP + RLD the total votes will corss 4.5 lakh mark. BJP was in 3rd place

KAIRANA - RLD Won in 2004 with BJP +RLD the total votes will touch 6 lakh mark . BJP was in 3rd place

KHURJA- BJP won in 2004, but with RLD the majority will cross the 1lakh mark

BULANDSHAHR -BJP won in 2004 and Kalyan Singh was the winner. The RLD was the runner up here and Kalyan's majority was
16,600. Now with Kalyan in opposite camp, BJP + RLD need to work to cross this number. Here Akhil Bharatha Hindu Mahasabha
got 3000 votes.
th

MATHURA - BJP +RLD will cross 2.5 lakh votes almost 1.5 times the existing majority. Currently RLD is in 3rd position and BJP in 4
ABHM (Akhil Bharatheeya Hindu Mahasabha) scored 25000 votes across 9 constituencies. There should not be any division of Hindu votes in this
election
Apna Dal is another small party which can break the pot. They have presence in few constituencies and they tilted few victories away from runner
ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP.

Now having said all these here are the statistics for reinforcing our campaign strategy and make sure that we score the highest marks (read seats) in a
scoring paper (read win majority of seats in UP)

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Year STATE Electors TotalVoters % Polled Seats Contested By BJP Seats Won By BJP % of Votes
Polled for BJP

2004 UTTAR PRADESH (no of 110624490 53278071 48.16% 77 10 22.17%

constituencies - 80 as 5 went to
Uttarakhand)
1999 UTTAR PRADESH ( No of 102946404 55107957 53.53% 77 29 27.64%
Constituencies - 85)
1998 UTTAR PRADESH ( No of 101982480 56593465 55.49% 82 57 36.49%
Constituencies - 85)
1996 UTTAR PRADESH 100826305 46885634 46.50% 83 52 33.44%
Year STATE Electors Total Voters % Polled Seats Contested By BSP Seat Won By BSP %of Votes
Polled for BSP

2004 UTTAR PRADESH (no of 110624490 53278071 48.16% 80 19 24.67%

constituencies - 80 as 5 went to
Uttarakhand)
1999 UTTAR PRADESH ( No of 102946404 55107957 53.53% 85 14 22.08%
Constituencies - 85)
1998 UTTAR PRADESH ( No of 101982480 56593465 55.49% 85 4 20.90%
Constituencies - 85)
1996 UTTAR PRADESH 100826305 46885634 46.50% 85 6 20.61%
Year STATE Electors Total Voters % Polled Seats Contested By SP Seat Won By SP %of Votes
Polled for SP
2004 UTTAR PRADESH (no of 110624490 53278071 48.16% 68 35 26.74%
constituencies - 80 as 5 went to
Uttarakhand)
1999 UTTAR PRADESH ( No of 102946404 55107957 53.53% 84 26 24.06%
Constituencies - 85)
1998 UTTAR PRADESH ( No of 101982480 56593465 55.49% 81 20 28.70%
Constituencies - 85)
1996 UTTAR PRADESH 100826305 46885634 46.50% 64 16 20.84%

Note how small percentage deviation in % of votes polled for BJP is and its impact on the number of seats won. Also watch the number of seats
for SP and their % of votes polled.

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2004 Election Report Card for BJP

No Of Seats Won By BJP (incl. 1 JD(U )seat) 11

No Of Seats where BJP is runner up 21
No of Seats where BJP is in 3rd place 32
No of Seats where BJP is in 4th place 13
No of Seats where BJP Is in 5th place 2
BJP didn't contest 1 seat Salempur 1
Total Seats 80

BJP’s Victory/Defeat Margin in Various Constituencies in UP and there position as per 2004 parliament election. E.g. Aonla constituency, Position
1 means we won the seat by a majority of 6871., Agra constituency,postion 2 means we were runner ups and we lost by a margin of 57361

Constituency BJP Position Victory/Defeat Margin

AGRA 2 57361
AKBARPUR 3 264134
ALIGARH 2 2876
ALLAHABAD 2 28409
AMETHI 3 334736
AMROHA 4 157005
AONLA 1 6871
AZAMGARH 5 223505
BAGHPAT 3 250859
BAHRAICH 3 45169
BALLIA 3 160620
BALRAMPUR 1 52613
BANDA 3 62710
BANSGAON 4 53497
BARA 3 80394
BAREILLY 1 59636
BASTI 2 25380
BIJNOR (SC) 3 200259
BILHAUR 3 63513

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BUDAUN 2 51323
BULANDSHAHR 1 16630
CHAIL 3 96040
CHANDAULI 3 22829
DEORIA 2 52235
DOMARIAGANJ 4 87441
ETAH 2 51343
ETAWAH 2 190157
FAIZABAD 2 33561
FARRUKHABAD 3 40029
FATEHPUR 3 62111
FIROZABAD 2 54796
GHATAMPUR 3 37278
GHAZIPUR 2 226811
GHOSI 4 147508
GONDA 2 37011
GORAKHPUR 1 142013
HAMIRPUR 4 176502
HAPUR 2 42374
HARDOI 3 86974
HATHRAS 1 22798
JALAUN 1 26773
JALESAR 2 106075
JAUNPUR 4 109470
JHANSI 3 32191
KAIRANA 3 448067
KAISERGANJ 2 12668
KANNAUJ 3 352022
KANPUR 2 5643
KHALILABAD 3 57297
KHERI 3 28756
KHURJA 1 41137
LALGANJ 3 121030
LUCKNOW 1 218329
MACHHLISHAHR 3 66515
MAHARAJGANJ 1 64795

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MAINPURI 3 349300
MATHURA 4 84587
MEERUT 3 85303
MIRZAPUR 2 36418
MISRIKH 3 131351
MOHANLALGANJ 3 32600
MORADABAD 2 35842
MUZAFFARNAGAR 2 69014
PADRAUNA 4 90879
PHULPUR 3 113938
PILIBHIT 1 102721
PRATAPGARH 5 217300
RAMPUR 4 167608
ROBERTSGANJ 3 22326
SAHARANPUR 3 122935
SAIDPUR 3 70800
SAMBHAL 4 282232
SHAHABAD 2 46378
SHAHJAHANPUR 4 117222
SITAPUR 3 33914
SULTANPUR 4 170267
UNNAO 3 83676
VARANASI 2 57440
RAEBARELI 4 346817

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BJP Runner up Constituencies (Position no – 2)

Margin < 10,000 2 seats

Margin > 10,000 <50,000 9 seats
Margin >50,000 < 100,000 7 seats
Margin > 100,000 3 seats

Constituency BJP Position Total

AGRA 2 57361
ALIGARH 2 2876
ALLAHABAD 2 28409
BASTI 2 25380
BUDAUN 2 51323
DEORIA 2 52235
ETAH 2 51343
ETAWAH 2 190157
FAIZABAD 2 33561
FIROZABAD 2 54796
GHAZIPUR 2 226811
GONDA 2 37011
HAPUR 2 42374
JALESAR 2 106075
KAISERGANJ 2 12668
KANPUR 2 5643
MIRZAPUR 2 36418
MORADABAD 2 35842
MUZAFFARNAGAR 2 69014
SHAHABAD 2 46378
VARANASI 2 57440

BJP No.3 Constituencies (Position no – 3)

Margin < 50,000- 9 seats,

Margin > 50,000 < 100,000- 11 seats,
Margin > 100,000 < 200,000- 5 seats,

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Margin > 200,000 < 300,000- 3 seats,

Margin > 300,000- 4 seats

Constituency Defeat Margin

AKBARPUR 264,134
AMETHI 334,736
BAGHPAT 250,859
BAHRAICH 45,169
BALLIA 160,620
BANDA 62,710
BARA 80,394
BIJNOR (SC) 200,259
BILHAUR 63,513
CHAIL 96,040
CHANDAULI 22,829
FARRUKHABAD 40,029
FATEHPUR 62,111
GHATAMPUR 37,278
HARDOI 86,974
JHANSI 32,191
KAIRANA 448,067
KANNAUJ 352,022
KHALILABAD 57,297
KHERI 28,756
LALGANJ 121,030
MACHHLISHAHR 66,515
MAINPURI 349,300
MEERUT 85,303
MISRIKH 131,351
MOHANLALGANJ 32,600
PHULPUR 113,938
ROBERTSGANJ 22,326
SAHARANPUR 122,935
SAIDPUR 70,800
SITAPUR 33,914
UNNAO 83,676

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BJP Leads in 63 constituencies under postal vote category which is a clear indication of its dominance and
preferred party among middle class/ government employees. We need to increase the general vote polling
percentage in a similar manner.

Consituency Party BJP Leads in Postal Vote Total Postal Votes

AGRA BJP Y 30
AKBARPUR BJP Y 15
ALIGARH BJP Y 123
ALLAHABAD BJP Y 33
AMETHI BJP N 16
AMROHA BJP Y 3
AZAMGARH BJP Y 30
BAGHPAT BJP N 8
BAHRAICH BJP N 0
BALLIA BJP N 98
BALRAMPUR BJP N 0
BANDA BJP Y 28
BANSGAON BJP Y 7
BARA BJP Y 20
BAREILLY BJP Y 8
BASTI BJP Y 8
BIJNOR (SC) BJP N 2
BILHAUR BJP N 8
BUDAUN BJP Y 2
BULANDSHAHR BJP Y 22
CHAIL BJP Y 27
CHANDAULI BJP Y 22
DEORIA BJP Y 10
DOMARIAGANJ BJP Y 1
ETAH BJP Y 24
ETAWAH BJP Y 18
FAIZABAD BJP Y 82
FARRUKHABAD BJP Y 30
FATEHPUR BJP Y 31
FIROZABAD BJP Y 31

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GHATAMPUR BJP Y 19
GHAZIPUR BJP Y 75
GHOSI BJP N 47
GONDA BJP Y 22
GORAKHPUR BJP Y 28
HAMIRPUR BJP N 14
HAPUR BJP Y 27
HARDOI BJP Y 18
HATHRAS BJP Y 39
JALAUN BJP Y 20
JALESAR BJP Y 22
JAUNPUR BJP Y 9
JHANSI BJP Y 7
KAIRANA BJP N 7
KAISERGANJ BJP Y 9
KANNAUJ BJP Y 22
KANPUR BJP Y 10
KHALILABAD BJP Y 2
KHERI BJP Y 7
KHURJA BJP Y 13
LALGANJ BJP Y 51
LUCKNOW BJP Y 48
MACHHLISHAHR BJP Y 17
MAHARAJGANJ BJP Y 5
MAINPURI BJP N 45
MATHURA** BJP Y 218
MIRZAPUR BJP Y 8
MISRIKH BJP Y 3
MOHANLALGANJ BJP Y 17
MORADABAD BJP Y 2
MUZAFFARNAGAR BJP Y 13
PADRAUNA BJP Y 6
PHULPUR BJP Y 27
PILIBHIT BJP N 4
PRATAPGARH BJP N 8

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RAMPUR BJP Y 4
ROBERTSGANJ BJP Y 16
SAHARANPUR BJP Y 10
SAIDPUR BJP Y 28
SAMBHAL BJP N 0
SHAHABAD BJP Y 13
SHAHJAHANPUR BJP N 0
SITAPUR BJP Y 3
SULTANPUR BJP Y 32
UNNAO BJP Y 27
VARANASI BJP Y 6
RAEBARELI BJP N 0

How Independents can spoil BJP’s prospects in UP? See the constituencies below.
Constituency . . Party Votes Polled Postal Votes Total
MATHURA**(Note MANVENDRA M 56 GEN INC 187376 24 187400
here BJP received CHOUDHARY M 51 GEN BSP 149236 32 149268
4 times postal DR.GYANVATI SINGH F 70 GEN RLD 144314 52 144366
votes compared to CHOUDHARY M 45 GEN BJP 102789 218 103007
other parties) TEJVEER
HARPAL M 31 GEN IND 4321 0 4321
OM M 46 GEN LP(S) 2414 0 2414
RAJKUMAR M 29 GEN NCP 2292 2 2294
SATISH M 38 GEN IND 2226 0 2226
BIJENDRA M 54 GEN IND 1659 0 1659
KUNVAR M 38 GEN IND 1179 0 1179
NARAYAN M 40 GEN IND 1066 0 1066
BALBIR M 40 GEN IND 873 1 874
VIDHYA F 40 SC IND 647 0 647
PHAKKAR M 58 GEN IND 576 1 577
DEVKI M 42 GEN IND 527 2 529
AJAY M 26 GEN IND 360 0 360
TOTAL 601855 332 602187
Constituency . . Party Votes Polled Postal Votes Total
KANPUR SHRIPRAKASH M 59 GEN INC 211104 5 211109

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SATYA M 56 GEN BJP 205461 10 205471

HAJI M 49 GEN SP 159354 7 159361
ANUBHAV M 26 GEN BSP 27961 1 27962
SUBHASHINI F 57 GEN CPM 4558 0 4558
MOHD. M 50 GEN IND 1975 0 1975
CHANDRA M 38 GEN ABHM 1607 0 1607
SAROJ F 37 SC IND 1070 0 1070
SUNIL M 29 GEN AD 957 0 957
RAVI M 29 SC IND 945 0 945
JAGANNATH M 61 SC IND 822 0 822
CHANDRAMANI M 41 GEN IND 721 0 721
RAM M 63 SC RSBP 644 0 644
AJEET M 49 GEN IND 615 0 615
MANOHAR M 38 SC IND 477 0 477
SANJEEV M 30 GEN BSDP 427 0 427
TOTAL 618698 23 618721
Constituency . Party Votes Polled Postal Votes Total
JHANSI CHANDRAPAL M 47 GEN SP 238781 1 238782
BABU M 65 GEN BSP 212483 0 212483
RAJENDRA M 65 GEN BJP 206584 7 206591
RAJENDRA M 50 GEN INC 104582 2 104584
HEERA M 44 GEN IND 15065 0 15065
HARIDAS M 29 SC IND 10033 0 10033
ARVIND M 31 GEN AD 8505 0 8505
SUNU M 55 SC IND 7578 0 7578
VINOD M 28 SC IND 3730 0 3730
CHAMAN M 68 SC IND 2352 0 2352
RAMJI M 36 GEN IND 1998 0 1998
PREM M 37 GEN SMSP 1909 0 1909
MATU M 39 SC RSMD 1860 0 1860
KALOO M 64 SC IND 1489 0 1489
ASHOK M 38 SC IND 1395 0 1395
ARVIND M 32 GEN IND 1292 0 1292
TOTAL 819636 10 819646
Constituency . Party Votes Polled Postal Votes Total
ALLAHABAD KUNWAR M 60 GEN SP 234001 7 234008

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DR.M.M JOSHI M 70 GEN BJP 205592 33 205625

R.K.SINGH M 44 GEN BSP 111573 3 111576
SATYA M 65 GEN INC 40541 4 40545
RAJ M 51 GEN AD 25426 0 25426
SHYAM M 39 GEN IND 7755 0 7755
RAJENDRA M 39 GEN IND 4930 0 4930
SAMAR M 40 GEN IND 3820 0 3820
MANNI M 25 SC IND 2886 0 2886
KAILASH M 37 GEN IND 2700 0 2700
MOHD M 51 GEN IND 2696 0 2696
HARI M 62 SC IND 2664 0 2664
JAGDEESH M 32 SC BKRP 2605 0 2605
RAM M 45 GEN SSD 2458 1 2459
RAJU M 30 GEN IND 2313 0 2313
ARVIND M 29 GEN IND 1253 0 1253
AMARNATH M 25 SC IND 1199 0 1199
BRIJ M 25 GEN IJP 1099 0 1099
BALLABH M 53 GEN SVSP 939 0 939
TOTAL 656450 48 656498
Constituency . (SC) Party Votes Polled Postal Votes Total
ROBERTSGANJ LALCHANDRA M 55 SC BSP 189521 0 189521
PAKAURI M 51 SC SP 179152 7 179159
RAM M 38 SC BJP 167195 16 167211
BRIJ M 72 SC INC 65914 2 65916
RAM M 42 SC AD 41459 2 41461
SHRAVAN M 36 SC IND 18949 0 18949
PREM M 31 SC PMSP 15475 0 15475
TEERATHRAJ M 50 SC IND 11746 0 11746
ASHOK M 36 SC CPI(ML) 11120 0 11120
(L)
RAMJAG M 44 SC RSMD 7291 0 7291
RAMESH M 26 SC IND 5997 0 5997
DAYA M 50 SC IND 4730 0 4730
AMRESH M 28 SC IND 3737 0 3737
BHUPENDRA M 30 SC VP 2511 0 2511
TOTAL 724797 27 724824

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Constituency . . Party Votes Polled Postal Votes Total

VARANASI DR.RAJESH MISHRA M 44 GEN INC 206902 2 206904
SHANKAR M 66 GEN BJP 149462 6 149468
ATAHAR M 50 GEN AD 93228 0 93228
AMIR M 42 GEN BSP 59518 0 59518
ANJANA F 48 GEN SP 59104 0 59104
SHALENDRA M 37 GEN IND 28532 0 28533
KANHAYA M 31 GEN SBSP 7550 0 7550
DR.HEERA M 46 GEN CPM 6379 0 6379
RAM M 28 SC IND 5878 0 5878
SURESH M 27 GEN IND 2733 0 2733
NARENDRA M 37 GEN IND 2477 0 2477
DINESH M 38 GEN PMSP 2110 0 2110
RAJ M 30 GEN IND 2091 0 2091
RAMJI M 42 GEN IND 2006 0 2006
KAMAL M 35 GEN GGP 1824 0 1824
KHAGENDRA M 41 GEN IND 1297 0 1297
GANESH M 40 GEN IND 1069 0 1069
LALJI M 45 SC PTSS 908 0 908
TOTAL 633068 9 633077

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Examples for how limited number of independents can help BJP win a constituency?

Constituency . . Party Votes Postal Total

Polled Votes
GORAKHPUR ADITYA M 30 GEN BJP 353619 28 353647
JAMUNA M 50 GEN SP 211606 2 211608
PRADEEP M 38 GEN BSP 70448 1 70449
SHARDENDU M 59 GEN INC 33477 0 33477
MILAN M 31 SC IND 8785 0 8785
CHANDRA M 42 GEN AD 3225 0 3225
GOPAL M 31 GEN SBSP 3081 0 3081
RAM M 30 GEN IND 2716 0 2716
MAHANTH M 59 GEN ABHM 2260 0 2260
TOTAL 689217 31 689248
Constituency . . Party Votes Postal Total
Polled Votes
MAHARAJGANJ PANKAJ M 40 GEN BJP 228697 5 228702
AKHILESH M 39 GEN SP 163902 1 163903
HARSH M 56 GEN INC 161552 2 161554
TALAT F 58 GEN BSP 157438 0 157438
RAM M 32 GEN IND 11993 0 11993
OM M 30 GEN BEP 6217 0 6217
PASHUPATI M 43 GEN IND 5093 0 5093
GAURI M 40 GEN AD 4328 0 4328
RANJEET M 48 GEN IND 4220 0 4220
AMAR M 36 SC IND 3174 0 3174
TOTAL 746614 8 746622

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Apna Dal Votes polled By Constituency - They tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP. Total
Independent votes polled By Constituency - They tilted few victories away from runner ups and most of the times the affected party was BJP
Consituency Party Total
AGRA AD 546
IND 9637
AKBARPUR AD 29254
IND 14048
ALIGARH IND 10577
ALLAHABAD AD 25426
IND 32216
AMETHI AD 11280
IND 30144
AMROHA IND 303464
AONLA IND 32394
AZAMGARH AD 3438
IND 21943
BAGHPAT IND 9016
BAHRAICH AD 5034
IND 13181
BALLIA AD 1458
IND 12353
BALRAMPUR AD 3427
IND 26160
BANDA AD 5200
IND 20790
BANSGAON IND 17538
BARA AD 4673
IND 17896
BAREILLY AD 3005
IND 23850
BASTI AD 6513
IND 22714
BIJNOR (SC) IND 18837
BILHAUR AD 4777
IND 12923
BUDAUN IND 4532

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BULANDSHAHR IND 18644

CHAIL AD 18237
IND 15643
CHANDAULI AD 18520
IND 12475
DEORIA AD 26161
IND 17825
DOMARIAGANJ AD 3531
IND 28474
ETAH IND 3735
ETAWAH AD 1239
IND 11253
FAIZABAD AD 19169
IND 37021
FARRUKHABAD AD 4486
IND 52351
FATEHPUR AD 10861
IND 14202
FIROZABAD IND 9391
GHATAMPUR AD 46022
IND 7716
GHAZIPUR AD 1264
IND 18688
GHOSI AD 8336
IND 29921
GONDA AD 4460
IND 28924
GORAKHPUR AD 3225
IND 11501
HAMIRPUR AD 4058
IND 39270
HAPUR IND 15693
HARDOI IND 20633
HATHRAS IND 7835
JALAUN AD 9738
IND 13113

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JALESAR AD 513
IND 8249
JAUNPUR AD 28971
IND 11181
JHANSI AD 8505
IND 44932
KAIRANA IND 14370
KAISERGANJ AD 2178
IND 18411
KANNAUJ AD 3945
IND 9539
KANPUR AD 957
IND 6625
KHALILABAD AD 2548
IND 30240
KHERI AD 3227
IND 28984
KHURJA IND 14149
LALGANJ IND 17994
LUCKNOW AD 2804
IND 77842
MACHHLISHAHR AD 29746
IND 24045
MAHARAJGANJ AD 4328
IND 24480
MAINPURI IND 10531
MATHURA IND 13438
MEERUT IND 7368
MIRZAPUR AD 17350
IND 11633
MISRIKH AD 4101
IND 17982
MOHANLALGANJ AD 5044
IND 21035
MORADABAD IND 51672
MUZAFFARNAGAR IND 15922

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PADRAUNA AD 7743
IND 16631
PHULPUR AD 80388
IND 34842
PILIBHIT AD 3194
IND 22499
PRATAPGARH AD 22115
IND 36546
RAMPUR AD 1748
IND 30857
ROBERTSGANJ AD 41461
IND 45159
SAHARANPUR IND 20391
SAIDPUR AD 10938
IND 46389
SALEMPUR AD 2182
IND 16509
SAMBHAL IND 15020
SHAHABAD AD 4570
IND 17870
SHAHJAHANPUR AD 2224
IND 24033
SITAPUR AD 27881
IND 18096
SULTANPUR AD 12207
IND 25441
UNNAO AD 7072
IND 17130
VARANASI AD 93228
IND 46084
RAEBARELI AD 9969
IND 33364

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