10 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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10 May 2013
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Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 May 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
381.30
270.90
397.30
Neutral
Buy
Target
570
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
287.30
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
347
0.66
COBHAM
270.50
190.10
270.50
Neutral
Buy
301
0.82
MEGGITT
499.60
364.30
499.60
Neutral
Sell
433
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1172.00
780.75
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1131
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1286.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1092
0.71
1710.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Sell
1610
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
290.10
173.60
290.10
Neutral
Neutral
277
2.02
INCHCAPE
521.00
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
519
1.48
LOOKERS
102.00
56.50
102.00
Neutral
Neutral
110
1.23
23.25
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
35
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
310.00
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-808
1.94
730.50
503.20
740.00
Neutral
Buy
936
1.17
58.06
25.29
58.06
Sell
Sell
1.89
293.80
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-168
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1584.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3205
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
550.50
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
590
0.55
DIAGEO
1993.50
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1782
0.55
SABMILLER
3581.00
2348.50
3655.50
Neutral
Buy
4045
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
295.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
663
1.23
CARCLO
383.75
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
408
0.73
2468.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2025
1.04
256.00
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
346
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2576.00
2080.27
2593.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12131
1.45
VICTREX
1574.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1423
1.14
SYNTHOMER
206.60
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
216
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
216.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
383
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
82.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
213.40
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
915
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
319.90
114.00
320.90
Neutral
Buy
436
1.58
BELLWAY
1310.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1780
1.15
2120.00
1180.00
2140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3221
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
181.00
115.50
181.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
332
0.83
764.50
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
530
1.20
CARILLION
278.60
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
727
1.12
CLARKE (T)
51.38
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
247
0.82
278.25
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
543
0.57
1370.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
815
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
949.00
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1561
1.01
KELLER
890.00
348.25
890.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1991
1.26
1195.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3143
0.97
70.00
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
206
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
127.00
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
543.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3152
0.87
16.25
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
31
1.15
NORCROS
1109.00
496.69
1109.00
Neutral
Buy
1351
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
215.90
107.30
215.90
Neutral
Buy
269
1.09
SIG
170.20
82.30
170.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
485
1.79
2.00
2.00
15.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
49
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
94.05
40.28
96.55
Neutral
Buy
120
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1459.00
906.50
1511.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2408
2.01
WOLSELEY
3310.00
2121.32
3337.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5254
1.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1295.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
799
0.75
670.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
876
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
116.50
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
256
1.29
INVENSYS
399.00
198.90
399.00
Neutral
Sell
357
1.41
LAIRD
203.50
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
75
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1565.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1222
1.00
RENISHAW
1710.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2459
1.26
SPECTRIS
2136.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Neutral
2296
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.16
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
174.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
422
1.58
XAAR
540.00
185.00
540.00
Sell
Sell
242
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
86.13
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
98
1.28
BODYCOTE
537.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
527
1.60
CASTINGS
344.50
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
726
0.99
VESUVIUS
369.10
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
517
2.20
FENNER
367.40
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
573
1.42
HALMA
520.00
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
409
0.75
448.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
342
1.37
1337.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1423
1.41
271.90
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
559
1.82
2952.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2276
1.00
263.30
177.00
263.30
Sell
Sell
219
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
40.50
35.40
104.11
Neutral
Sell
30
SPIRAX-SARCO
2753.00
1900.00
2758.00
Sell
Sell
2374
0.84
VITEC GROUP
617.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
616
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2290.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2112
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
400.10
398.50
523.50
Buy
Strong Buy
680
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
288.40
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
186
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
378.80
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
208
0.57
TESCO
376.65
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
266
0.68
81.50
18.88
82.25
Neutral
Sell
60
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1986.00
1167.00
1999.00
Neutral
Neutral
2122
0.62
CRANSWICK
1070.00
732.50
1080.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2095
0.43
DAIRY CREST
467.90
307.00
468.30
Neutral
Neutral
510
0.94
DEVRO
330.70
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
518
0.32
74.00
54.50
135.00
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
857.50
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1561
0.71
2758.00
2007.00
2845.00
Neutral
Neutral
2800
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
27.75
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.69
450.00
224.40
450.00
Neutral
Sell
378
0.54
1377.00
1000.00
1467.00
Neutral
Sell
1023
1.27
659.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
292
0.95
37.21
12.67
37.50
Neutral
Neutral
40
1.51
141.75
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
51
1.13
29.50
19.50
42.50
Sell
Strong Buy
106
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
390.00
189.00
390.00
Neutral
Buy
523
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
835.00
606.50
855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1576
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
51.00
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
91
1.25
KINGFISHER
320.80
254.10
329.70
Neutral
Buy
406
0.94
421.60
312.20
421.60
Neutral
Buy
539
0.65
55.00
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
62
1.04
314.75
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Buy
366
0.47
NEXT
4560.00
2899.00
4601.00
Neutral
Sell
3904
0.67
TED BAKER
1340.00
830.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
685
0.55
67.88
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
141.50
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
115
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
794.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
573
0.39
OPTOS
157.62
145.75
257.75
Neutral
Neutral
167
1.18
765.50
580.00
768.50
Neutral
Sell
688
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
740.00
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
721
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
326.50
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
297
0.92
84.00
55.25
95.00
Neutral
Buy
105
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1069.00
469.00
1069.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
559
Beta
0.74
538.00
200.30
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1296
1.18
64.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
48
0.90
315.20
296.00
632.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
526
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
138.00
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
695
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
200.00
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-516
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1261.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1242
0.53
AMLIN
425.40
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
96
0.46
BEAZLEY
230.50
132.50
230.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1287
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
536.50
399.00
540.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1991
0.30
HISCOX
566.00
385.08
574.05
Neutral
Strong Buy
2565
0.48
880.00
659.00
880.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1713
0.31
112.30
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
926
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
485.00
345.00
485.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2918
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2388.00
1962.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4036
1.01
98.00
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Neutral
107
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
340.60
158.00
340.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
789
1.01
800.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
682
0.39
GREENE KING
741.00
474.30
741.00
Neutral
Sell
657
0.93
LADBROKES
205.10
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
256
0.93
1909.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1502
1.18
CARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
555.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
654
1.40
349.00
217.40
350.10
Neutral
Sell
318
1.12
136.80
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
50
1.25
10.50
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
1.27
165.80
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
512
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
482.40
272.70
488.10
Neutral
Sell
327
WETHERSPOON (JD)
597.50
371.30
607.50
Neutral
Buy
751
0.69
WHITBREAD
2671.00
1786.00
2692.00
Neutral
Sell
2019
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
425.30
245.24
430.70
Neutral
Sell
260
0.87
MARSTON'S
148.80
94.40
148.80
Neutral
Sell
19
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
322.90
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
710
1.25
CHESNARA
235.00
155.25
250.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
0.70
180.50
106.00
181.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
359
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
220.40
138.70
220.40
Sell
Sell
206
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1177.00
660.00
1177.00
Sell
Sell
1024
1.71
585.00
303.40
585.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1503
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
10 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
117.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-598
0.37
809.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1780
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
46.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
160
1.03
732.00
363.50
732.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4158
1.14
1.00
1002.00
672.50
1002.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7808
INFORMA
504.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-82
1.53
ITE GROUP
291.10
180.00
291.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
1.45
ITV
128.00
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1295
1.54
17.25
4.88
17.50
Sell
Buy
792
1.27
1186.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
320
0.63
79.25
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2670
0.79
277.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
882
0.16
34.42
26.85
34.42
Neutral
Sell
-596
0.50
STV GROUP
133.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
270
0.79
ST.IVES
149.75
67.50
149.75
Neutral
Sell
226
1.50
90.25
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-260
1.59
724.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1757
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
154.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1377
WPP
1108.00
743.00
1119.00
Neutral
Sell
-519
1.35
HIBU
0.39
0.26
3.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
825
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1667.00
1553.00
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1246
1.74
225.25
215.00
290.30
Neutral
Neutral
229
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
931.50
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
854
1.41
1927.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2888
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
355.05
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
1014
#NA
LONMIN
300.20
240.84
504.24
Neutral
Buy
379
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5225.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2999
0.34
RIO TINTO
3091.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2457
1.50
3.63
16.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
167
0.89
832.50
1298.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2142
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1298.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1202.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1251
0.80
BP
465.50
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1568
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
282.90
248.20
314.30
Neutral
Sell
-16
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.80
7.66
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
14
0.82
826.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
449
1.31
1.36
71.00
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
304
397.70
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
288
1.43
2321.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9490
0.84
391.90
254.90
404.30
Neutral
Sell
251
0.53
1038.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
918
1.04
811.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
798
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
117.00
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
256
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
392.50
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
323
0.69
4625.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4668
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.44
0.36
3.80
Buy
Sell
-0
1.01
3326.50
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6445
0.47
BTG
353.20
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
166
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
692.50
444.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
719
0.25
1644.50
1317.50
1687.50
Neutral
Sell
1552
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.10
1.55
4.08
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
1934.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1356
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
43.63
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-133
0.73
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
417.50
274.50
417.80
Neutral
Sell
-598
1.18
BRITISH LAND
623.50
475.40
623.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1780
1.06
Target
Beta
35.50
22.75
35.50
Sell
Strong Buy
160
0.85
959.50
595.00
959.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4158
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2401.00
1708.00
2401.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7808
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
151.75
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-82
0.99
GRAINGER
147.80
83.10
147.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
565.00
367.00
565.00
Strong Sell
Strong Buy
1295
1.10
HAMMERSON
540.00
409.20
545.00
Neutral
Buy
792
1.19
HELICAL BAR
260.00
164.00
260.00
Neutral
Buy
320
0.77
920.00
704.00
920.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2670
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
344.30
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
882
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
144.50
127.00
145.00
Neutral
Sell
-596
0.73
409.00
325.00
409.00
Sell
Sell
270
0.42
333.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
226
0.35
68.50
32.50
70.00
Sell
Sell
-260
1.19
SAVILLS
580.00
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1757
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
630.00
492.00
630.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1377
1.05
SEGRO
281.20
209.40
281.20
Neutral
Sell
-519
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
285.90
145.50
285.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
825
1.59
202.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-19
1.01
UNITE GROUP
363.90
180.25
363.90
Neutral
Sell
52
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1182
1.03
388.00
213.25
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1338
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
129.20
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Sell
122
0.73
2244.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1316
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
445.30
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1353
1.00
KOFAX
324.75
240.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
323
1.11
26.50
18.25
26.50
Sell
Sell
24
0.85
679.50
431.48
706.00
Neutral
Buy
981
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
147.00
131.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
311
0.74
74.00
70.25
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-91
0.52
1846.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Buy
2081
0.76
348.00
247.70
352.10
Neutral
Buy
418
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
465.10
237.30
468.00
Neutral
Sell
140
BREWIN DOLPHIN
209.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
117
0.73
9900.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
8666
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
406.25
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
196
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
135.87
190.00
Neutral
Sell
125
0.69
1060.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
195
0.86
100.80
65.90
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
102
0.89
3.26
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
26
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
174.20
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
60
1.44
ICAP
301.00
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
224
1.07
HELPHIRE GROUP
430.50
227.30
430.50
Neutral
Sell
144
1.70
INVESTEC
494.10
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
110
1.56
1352.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Sell
-362
1.15
124.10
63.25
125.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
512
1.32
1511.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1085
0.75
SCHRODERS
2436.00
1166.00
2436.00
Sell
Sell
1153
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1910.00
966.00
1910.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3774
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
211.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
291
0.92
AGGREKO
1756.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1303
1.05
AMEC
1067.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1133
1.04
596.00
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
320
1.63
1071.00
793.50
1106.00
Neutral
Sell
663
0.48
552.00
324.00
557.00
Neutral
Buy
801
0.76
1283.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
985
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
425.00
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
442
0.39
CAPITA
913.50
602.00
913.50
Neutral
Sell
524
0.51
56.00
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
67
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
840.00
616.00
856.50
Neutral
Sell
605
BERENDSEN
754.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
981
1.05
DE LA RUE
939.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
595
#NA
DIGNITY
1436.00
803.50
1436.00
Neutral
Sell
822
0.22
DIPLOMA
596.50
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
488
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
257.30
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
322
1.04
FILTRONA
750.00
428.00
750.00
Sell
Sell
348
1.13
G4S
255.00
240.00
313.50
Buy
Buy
291
0.58
95.00
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
121
1.10
HOMESERVE
214.30
137.50
249.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
492
0.94
INTERSERVE
492.80
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
684
1.28
3342.00
2440.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1452
0.78
43.50
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
94
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.63
21.25
36.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
55
MENZIES (JOHN)
776.50
542.00
789.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1293
1.43
385.20
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
320
1.42
MITIE GROUP
272.70
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
342
0.55
93.50
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
0.33
PAYPOINT
841.50
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
694
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
224.80
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
289
1.33
REGUS
170.20
82.65
170.20
Neutral
Sell
107
1.46
92.20
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
55
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
522.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
532
0.90
RICARDO
387.25
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
471
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
218.87
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
308
1.24
RPC GROUP
398.00
351.00
477.00
Neutral
Buy
534
0.78
RPS GROUP
232.00
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
247
1.51
SERCO GROUP
620.50
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
578
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
83.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
168
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
47.00
22.25
50.00
Neutral
Buy
52
1.26
150.12
73.25
153.00
Neutral
Sell
51
0.63
51.25
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
61
0.93
333.00
234.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
623
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
184
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
275.70
200.70
288.70
Neutral
Buy
337
42.75
27.28
43.08
Neutral
Strong Buy
83
0.70
670.00
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
588
0.53
Beta
0.91
86.50
67.00
86.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
132
1.24
1239.00
695.00
1239.00
Sell
Sell
752
0.09
192.40
154.45
197.20
Neutral
Sell
167
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
260.90
178.00
269.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
177
Beta
1.30
409.50
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
457
0.98
CLARKSON
1600.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1477
0.80
EASYJET
1153.00
481.20
1153.00
Neutral
Sell
673
0.77
FIRST GROUP
216.00
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
563
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
960.00
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
397
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1515.00
1086.00
1558.00
Neutral
Buy
1861
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
214.90
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
252
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
331.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
611
STAGECOACH GROUP
311.70
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
364
0.89
54.50
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-43
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
378.00
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
511
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
821.00
641.00
825.50
Neutral
Neutral
889
0.50
PENNON GROUP
679.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
827
0.59
SSE
1576.00
1294.00
1576.00
Neutral
Buy
1838
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1821.00
1513.00
1828.00
Neutral
Sell
1610
0.35
743.50
617.50
747.50
Neutral
Neutral
715
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
10 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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