com
Paper Mill
Client
-- Draft --
For Discussion Purposes Only
Executive Summary
Introduction
Client and Energy Pro-USA have entered into an agreement to combine resources to improve Client’s
profitability by reducing the cost of energy required at the Client location mill, and increasing productivity of
the processes there.
This Analysis Report outlines the business opportunities identified by Energy Pro-USA during our
assessment of the Client mill. It further identifies areas for profit improvement which will require additional
study. Business opportunities are presented for approval, based on the following priorities:
Along with these business opportunities, a set of statistical models is presented as the basis for measuring the
actual contribution to profit for each of these improvement measures. These models have been audited by an
independent firm and found to accurately measure plant electrical load, plant steam consumption, and
monthly production for paper machines 1 and 2. Additional modeling tools are forthcoming.
Finally, this report provides a basis for agreement on investment, plans and schedules for improvement
initiatives. Since the economics of each improvement measure depend on the time and cost required to
implement them, changes to plans and schedules must be reviewed promptly and the economic impact
assessed. The report sets forth a change management process to objectively deal with unforeseen events and
assign accountability for costs associated with the change.
Energy Conservation
Process Improvement
Capital Projects
Buy/Sell Modeling
Buy/Sell Modeling x
Management Tools
Below is an initial prioritization for discussion and agreement between Client and Energy Pro:
Models
Overview
Statistical models for each of the major production processes have been completed using historical data from
the period of April 2006 through April 2008 (except for the Steam Model which continues to August 2008).
Models for steam and electricity are driven by a set of production and utility related independent variables.
Actual steam and electricity usage (as measured by specific meters) are the dependent variables. Models for
production for each machine were similarly developed. Each of these models will be reviewed, tested, and
validated with plant personnel before adoption. Later, these models can be complemented by a set of “first
principle” models aimed at further improving the precision of our analysis of improvement opportunities for
operations.
Models serve the dual purposes of providing a tool for control of daily operations as well as a means to
quantify achievement of system improvements. An Enterprise Optimization Model (“EOM”) has been
developed to provide a user friendly interface to the models. It combines current data from the mill
processes with the various models to produce online reports and charts showing actual results versus model
predicted values.
Each of the models is introduced below. Model parameters are listed along with their coefficients. Charts
are provided showing the closeness of fit between predicted and actual values. The EOM is then presented
along with a series of screen showing various reports. Management control using data from EOM is
discussed. Finally, a few important future modeling plans are highlighted.
Model Model
When actual electricity load is plotted over time versus predicted load, the two curves coincide nicely. The
small variations that do exist between the two are fairly randomly distributed. The plot of predicted versus
actual load on an XY plot shows that the model fits well along the entire range of values.
Plant Electricity Load: Actual vs Predicted
Dec 01, 07 to Apr 18, 08
300000
KWH
200000
100000
1 2 00 7
08
1 /2 00 8
2 /2 0 8
2 /2 00 8
08
22 0 8
8
8
08
8
2 /9 08
2 /1 0 08
8
08
8
7
7
1 /5 07
00
00
00
1 2 /20 0
1 2 /20 0
1 2 2 00
00
00
/2 0
20
20
/2 0
0
0
/20
/2
/2
/2
1/ 2
8/ 2
5/ 2
2
/2
/2
/2
/1 /
9/
6/
6/
3/
/1 5
/2 2
/2 9
/8
12
15
29
12
3/
3/
4/
1 /1
12
1/
3/
3/
3/
4/
Actual Predicted
Pred(Plant_load) / Plant_load
400000
350000
300000
Plant_load
250000
200000
150000
100000
100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000
Pred(Plant_load)
When actual steam load is plotted over time versus predicted load, these two curves also coincide nicely (see
Figure 3). Once again, the small variations that do exist between the two are fairly randomly distributed.
The plot of predicted load versus actual on an XY plot (see Figure 4) shows that the model fits well along the
entire range of values.
Plant Steam: Actual vs Predicted
May 01, 08 to Aug 24, 08
7000
6000
5000
MLb
4000
3000
2000
8
8
8
8
8
08
08
08
08
08
08
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
8/
4/
6/
2/
9/
15
22
11
18
25
13
20
27
16
23
30
8/
8/
7/
6/
5/
5/
8/
8/
7/
6/
6/
6/
7/
7/
5/
5/
5/
Actual Predicted
Pred(steam_pi) / steam_pi
8000
7000
6000
steam_pi
5000
4000
3000
2000
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Pred(steam_pi)
‐0.00719767 * operation_enpro_total +0.0530020 * JL_calc_machine_speed
‐0.0434667 * curtail_total +0.00187354 * avg_J_width
+0.0472929 * JL_Calc_machine_speed ‐2.21861 * PM_Start_Up
+0.185598 * Avg_basis_weight ‐0.0466085 * curtail_total
+0.00263173 * avg_J_width ‐0.0500801 * lostime_enpro_total
+0.0186283 * JL_calc_machine_speed
+2.65418 * jumbo_reels
‐0.0340673 * curtail_total
‐0.0449420 * lostime_enpro_total
‐0.0771185 * Abs_weight_grade_scale
‐0.779588 * weight_grade_change
‐6.07602 * pm_start_up
Projects
This section contains detailed project information including identification of key resources and timelines for
the following prioritized projects:
Loss Approximately $325,000 / yr of steam is lost because 50 pound steam is vented to the
atmosphere after being used in the Dryer Cans on #1 and #2 Paper Machines
Cause After steam is used for drying, there is steam that accompanies the condensate (blow-
through steam). Normally, this steam is separated out in a steam separator and reused
in a lower pressure section (wet end dryers). In the case of #1 & #2 PM , it is vented
to atmosphere, which is a huge waste of steam. The control of the flow of blow
through steam is normally done by limiting the pressure drop across the dryer (steam
supply to condensate header).
Action The steam and condensate systems for the #1 and #2 PM have not been updated and
maintained to control the drying process or capture the blow through steam. The
system in use is antiquated.
Why Financial reserves have not been available to provide adequate controls to capture this
blow through steam from the process
Recommendations Use improved siphons, and change the steam and condensate system
Install differential pressure control
Revise the system to cascade blow through and flash steam from the main section
dryers to the 18 Lb steam header.
Internal Marginal Cost to 4.016 cents per KWH It is estimated that the incremental benefit for
Generate Electricity saving KWH electricity will be $ 0.05611 /
Hourly data analyzed for 367 Days KWH
% of Time when Duke 61.59% From the chart, we calculate the incremental
purchase price exceeds savings potential for electrical power to be
marginal cost to produce 61.592 % x $ 0.0259 or $ 0.0160 + $
0.0416 / KWH or $ 0.05611 / KWH. This
Average sales price when there 6.606 cents per KWH
exists the opportunity to sell analysis methodology and result must be
Power confirmed by all Steering Committees.
Increasing Coal Costs – If coal were to increase from an average of $ 77.68 to $ 120.00 per ton, the average
cost to generate steam would increase approximately 54%, as would the resultant cost to generate electricity.
In that the above analysis is dependent on historical buy and sell pricing, we cannot apply this coal cost
increase to our analysis except to conclude that market price for peak power will tend to increase. Electrical
Buy Sell price projections are out of the scope of this report.
Measurement of Results
All Electrical Load Reduction projects Plant Electricity Load: Actual vs Predicted
will be measured by the Plant-Wide
Dec 01, 07 to Apr 18, 08
Electricity Model.
300000
KWH
200000
100000
12 007
1/1 008
1/2 008
2 /2 08
2/2 008
3 /1 08
08
22 08
3/2 008
4 /5 08
08
2 /9 08
7
08
7
8
1 /5 07
3/1 008
4/1 008
12 /20 0
12 /20 0
00
12 200
20
/ 20
20
20
/ 20
/ 20
/20
/2
8/ 2
/2
2
/2
2
6/2
/2
5/2
/2
/1/
/8/
9/
3/
9/
2/
/15
/22
/29
12
16
3/
12
1/
2/
3/
Actual Predicted
Investigation
The Electrical Load Reduction Plan is broken into various areas of inquiry. See individual plans for each
area. Work in these different areas will be conducted concurrently.
A. Pump Motors - From the above chart – over 70% of energy reduction
opportunities will result from addressing pumping inefficiencies.
B. Pulping Systems – There is new technology that will reduce the energy
require for re-pulping fiber.
C. Machine Drive – Evaluate current drive technology to seeking
opportunities to employ new cost effective technology to improve
efficiency.
D. Building Ventilation – Improve the efficiency of building ventilations
systems.
E. Compressed Air Utilization – Eliminate unneeded or inefficient uses of
compressed air.
F. Other Electrical Projects – As with all such projects, investigation
frequently uncover previously unforeseen opportunities to save
electricity.*
3. Modeling
Loss Ladder
Electrical Power reduction
Loss The targeted amount of power reduction is 3 Megawatts. Our analysis found
$590,000 of Electricity (1.2 Megawatt). Identified steam losses are $560,000 (0.35
MW Equiv.), steam opportunities targeted for large capital are $1,630,000 (1.03 MW
Equiv.) a remainder of $650,000 (0.41 MW Equiv.) is as of yet undetermined.
Cause Energy using equipment does not employ the most efficient available technology;
Action There is no detailed energy data reported / modeled with sufficient sensitivity to
detect the result of most individual energy conservation initiatives.
Why Financial reserves have not been available to provide adequate instrumentation and
controls to monitor energy use.
• Sub models are based on real time or near real time data and provide Client the opportunity to
change operating practice in order to reduce energy intensity.
• Energy is saved in two ways, by investing in new equipment or modifying existing equipment or by
learning to better operate existing equipment. Of the two, the latter provides the most rapid payback
and frequently, the greatest ancillary benefit. Providing associates the tools to measure the impact
of minor operating improvements encourages floor level innovation, empowering the very people
that are in the best position optimized a process.
3. Modeling
Energy Modeling is a three-phased project. Phase 1 will create electric and steam models at the plant-wide
level. In order to create responsive operational area models, Energy Pro will implement a metering project to
collect real time electric and steam consumption and power factor data. The installation of meters will allow
energy pro to then create energy sub-models. Sub-models provide the ability to model energy consumption
of specific areas of the process.
Total Steam Metering is dependent upon finishing metering for the new turbine plant. Honeywell target is
end of March, 2009.
Project Team
Title Name Contact Info Responsibilities
Energy Pro Project coordination, Data
Engineer Gathering and analysis,
implementation scheduling.
Power Motor Systems Analysis and
Engineer Optimization
Plant Electrical Power
Utilization Analysis and
Optimization
Client PI Data Implementation and
Liaison Scheduling
Timeline
Work
Description Start Finish
Item
1 Initial Review of Sub Metering Needs – Meter communication protocol. 9-2-08 9-3-08
2 Determine Metering points and Complete Meter Plan. 9-4-08 9-23-08
3 Solicit Bids from meter suppliers and installation contractors 9-26-08 10-12-08
4 Sub Metering Review Meeting (Data and Operational Steering Committee, DSC 10-13-08 ;
and OSC). Review Proposal and recommend suppliers
DSC, OSC
5 Sub Metering Review Meeting (Executive Steering Committee (ESC) 10-14-08 ;
Review and Approve DSC and OSC recommendations ESC
Project Team
Title Name Contact Info Responsibilities
Energy Pro Project coordination, Data
Engineer Gathering and analysis,
implementation scheduling.
EP Sr. Data analysis, modeling
Statistician
Sr. Process Project & Process Control
Control Engineer
Engineer
Timeline
Work
Description Start Date Stop Date
Item
1 Data Analysis, Integration and Automation 12/01/08 12/31/08
2 Models Created 01/01/09 01/23/09
3 EOM Programming and Testing 01/24/09 02/26/09
4 EOM Release with Electric Sub-Models 02/27/09 02/27/09
Project Team
Title Name Contact Info Responsibilities
Energy Pro Project coordination, Data
Engineer Gathering and analysis,
implementation scheduling.
Client PI Data Implementation and
Liaison Scheduling
Timeline
Work
Description Start Finish
Item
#2 Mill – 50lb Steam Meters Installed 11/01/08
#1 Mill Steam Meters Installed 03/31/09
#2 Mill – Steam Meters Installed 02/28/09
Project Team
Title Name Contact Info Responsibilities
Energy Pro Project coordination, Data
Engineer Gathering and analysis,
implementation scheduling.
EP Sr. Data analysis, modeling
Statistician
Sr. Process Project & Process Control
Control Engineer
Engineer
Timeline
Work
Description Start Date Stop Date
Item
1 Data Analysis, Integration and Automation 04/01/09 04/15/09
2 Models Created 04/16/09 05/01/09
3 EOM Programming and Testing 05/02/09 05/20/09
4 EOM Release with Steam Sub-Models 05/31/09 05/31/09
Loss Approximately 500 tons / yr, of business is turned down, (Gross Operating Margin
$506/ton * 500 tons = $250,000 / yr)
Cause Excessive set-up time makes short runs (less than 2000 lbs) uneconomical
Action Management has not provided the equipment or procedures to make fast changeovers.
Why Capital expenses / limitations and survival issues have prevented management from
focusing on this issue.
Recommendations Identify waste during the change over process working with the engineers, to come up
with ways to change grade and/or basis weight quicker with the same or better results.
Loss Depending on market conditions, $1,670,000 to $4,360,000 per year is lost because
the paper machines make broke during color and weight changes. Each machine
averages 55 color/weight changes per month, or 1320 changes total per year for both
machines. Reducing the average time per grade change by one minute saves
approximately $36,000/yr per machine.
Cause The paper machines make broke (off grade) paper when grades are changed.
Action Management has not provided the equipment or procedures to make fast changeovers.
Why Capital expenses / limitations and survival issues have prevented management from
focusing on this issue.
Recommendations The industry’s best practice is to change over in 10 minutes, making approximately
600 lbs of broke. Set a new target to average 15 minutes per change. Achieve these
changes by:
• Performing an assessment of change over process activities and document
procedures.
• Performing engineering study for the supporting equipment improvements, to verify
that the new procedures and engineering improvements can achieve lower targets.
• Incorporating additional solutions from teams into the new changeover procedure.
• Developing a simulation model of the paper-making process in # 2 Mill that will
allow the team and Client management to evaluate the effect of proposed changes
prior to implementation.
Paper Machine #1 and #2 employees and supervisors studied each step of the color change process.
They generated more than 40 ideas to reduce the color change time, some of the top priority ideas
include:
• At changes – dyes running at wall, BE at wall, ABE in color room
• Teamwork on changes – one BE filling MC while other making change
• Daily – post color change data. Make it very visible to show
• Standard definitions for the 5 or 6 types of changeovers.
• Pre-change checklist to ensure ‘homework’ is done for upcoming change
• Identify and try some type of individual dye flow meter/indicator to confirm dye pump is
working.
There are two phases to this project. Phase 1 will reduce the color change times for Paper Machine
1 and 2 by 10 minutes by 12/31/08. Phase 2 will reduce the color change time an additional 20
minutes by 3/31/08.
These changes will allow Client to bid on short runs that they weren’t able to do in 2007 because of
excessive color change times. Approximately $5M in new business was lost in 2007 for this reason.
1600.00
PM02 Prime Mass: Actual vs Predicted
1400.00
April 2006 to April 2008
Tons 1200.00
Billing
1800.00 1000.00
800.00
1600.00
600.00
1400.00
6
06
7
06
7
06
07
07
07
07
08
08
00
00
00
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
Tons 1200.00
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
/1
/1
/1
/1
4/
6/
8/
2/
4/
6/
8/
2/
4/
10
12
10
12
1000.00
Actual Predicted
800.00
600.00
7
07
07
07
07
06
06
08
08
06
00
00
00
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
/1
/1
/1
/1
2/
4/
6/
8/
6/
8/
2/
4/
4/
10
12
10
12
Actual Predicted
Project Team
Title Name Contact Info Responsibilities
Energy Pro Project coordination, Data
Engineer Gathering and analysis,
implementation scheduling.
Energy Pro Project coordination, data
Engineer gathering and analysis,
implementation scheduling.
Assistant Paper #2 Paper Machine
Making
Manufacturing
Manager
Beater Room Beater Room
Coordinator
Assistant Paper #1 Paper Machine
Making
Manufacturing
Manager
Assistant Paper Beater Room & Pulping
Making
Manufacturing
Manager
Paper Making Paper Making Operations
Manufacturing
Manager
Timeline
Work
Description Start Finish
Item
Discovery 05/15/08
Identification Sept 2008 12/31/08
*Dependency - #1 & #2 PM DP Steam Control (Capital Projects) 10/18/08
Phase 1 – Reduce Changeover by 10 minutes 12/31/08
*Dependency – Stock System Changes Project 03/31/09
Phase 2 – Reduce Changeover by additional 20 minutes 03/31/09
Loss Depending on market conditions, $3,000,000 to $4,000,000 per year is lost due to flushing
fiber from the stock prep area and sheet breaks in #2 Mill (see Appendix J).
Cause • It takes over 5 hours of runtime to flush the system (Stock Prep and Paper machine)
• Benchmark similar operations that have systems which allow changeover within 10
minutes. Reducing changeover time would save 250 minutes of flush time.
Action Management has not provided the equipment or procedures to make fast changeovers.
Why Capital expenses / limitations and survival issues have prevented management from
focusing on this issue.
Recommendations Reconfigure the couch pit piping and eliminate the saveall. Steps required will be:
• Evaluate the need for additional pumps, piping, and chest to capture the increased
flow of material during sheet breaks. Validate engineering design and supply flow
calculations.
• Perform failure mode analysis and risk analysis for the project
• Route the couch pit pump line to the machine chest.
• Control the pump-out rate by level control
• Install controls to maintain couch pit consistency at 4-5% Consistency control
water to be WW from the seal pit.
• Limit fresh water flow to couch pit by reusing process water for showers.
• Write new procedures for grade changes to minimize fiber left in chests and couch
pit and for operating during a sheet break. Work with the operators to implement
the new procedures.
1800.00
April 2006 to April 2008 1400.00
Changes Project will be Billing
Tons 1200.00
7
6
08
08
07
07
07
07
06
06
06
00
00
00
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
/1
/1
/1
/1
2/
4/
2/
4/
6/
8/
4/
6/
8/
10
12
10
12
1000.00
600.00
7
08
08
6
07
07
07
07
06
06
06
00
00
00
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
/1
/1
/1
/1
2/
4/
8/
2/
4/
6/
8/
6/
4/
10
12
12
10
Actual Predicted
Project Team
Title Name Contact Info Responsibilities
Energy Pro Engineer Project coordination, data
gathering and analysis,
implementation
scheduling.
Assistant Paper #2 Paper Machine
Making
Manufacturing Mgr
Beater Room Beater Room
Coordinator
Assistant Paper #1 Paper Machine
Making
Manufacturing
Manager
Assistant Paper Beater Room & Pulping
Making
Manufacturing
Manager
Paper Making Paper Making Operations
Manufacturing
Manager
Paper Making Engineering for all stock
Engineer system changes
Timeline
Work
Description Start Finish
Item
Simulation July 2008 10/31/08
Operating Scenarios Write-Up Sept 2008 11/30/08
Engineering Cost Estimate 10/15/08 11/15/08
Acceptance & Approval 11/15/08 12/15/08
Project Launch 1/2/09 1/2/09
Project Construction 1/2/09 2/28/09
Write Operating Procedures 1/2/09 2/28/09
Tie-In and Commissioning 3/1/09 3/1/09
9. Buy/Sell Modeling
Objective
Create a Model that provides real time scheduling knowledge that optimizes the gross margin resulting from
the operation of the firm’s boilers, turbines and process steam applications. Revenue sources are the sale of
power to the grid and sale of specialty paper (Heavy weights, deep colors, special coatings).
The model will provide real time process control recommendations for:
1. Turbine 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8 power generation rates, steam flow rate and exit temperature.
2. Anticipated steam generation requirements for boilers 10 and 14
3. Anticipated steam demand for 18 #, 50 # and 165 # steam by process center.
4. Anticipated power demand by process center.
5. Target power available for sale or recommended utility purchases
6. Purchase price of power, Gross Margin of Power Sales or avoided loss of Power Purchases
7. Economic Calculations - cost of each the above steam or power flows to the plant for paper
production.
Discussion Points
1. There is insufficient boiler capacity to meet all turbine generators and process steam
requirements simultaneously.
2. The entire 600 psi output from boiler #10 can pass through turbine #6 to generate 185 psi steam
and generate about 9 MW of electricity.
3. Turbine #5 is the most economic source of 18 psi steam that is used for process heat as well as
most building heat at flows over 2 MW. Turbine # 8 is more efficient for flows under 1.5 MW.
4. There will be limited capacity of 185 psi steam to operate condensing turbines (#3, #9, #10)
5. Turbine #9 extraction and Turbine #7 will need to be analyzed in terms of best cost for the
production of 50 psi steam to dry paper.
6. Process steam values (margin per pound) will be supplied to this model.
7. Boiler #14 will be converted to Bio Fuel to generate premium priced power in the near future.
Turbine / Generators Parameters
Steam Maximum
Flow Maximum Input Output Steam
per KW Output Pressure Pressure Flow
(pounds) (kw) (psi) (psi) (kpph)
1 Turbine #3 13 6,000 185 Condensing 78.00
2 Turbine #5 47 7,500 185 18 352.50
3 Turbine #6* 32.5 9,846 600 185 320.00
4 Turbine #2 70 1,000 185 50 70.00
5 Turbine #1 47 1,500 185 18 70.50
6 Turbine #7 13.4 9,400 185 Condensing 125.96
7 Turbine #8 13.4 9,400 185 Condensing 125.96