70
Firearms-related Suicides, y
60
50
40
30
20
10
home state of Michigan for the period 1999-2003 (click here for the full report). The data for the larger Michigan counties is compiled in Table 1. A comparison and the firearms-related suicides versus homicides for various states is presented in Table 2.
8.00
4.00
3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Table 1: Michigan Firearm Homicides and Suicides (Average number for the years 1999-2003)
County/City Homicides Rate Suicides Rate Berrien 6 3.5 8 4.9 Calhoun 4 2.9 8 6.1 Genesee 28 6.4 23 5.3 Ingham 6 2.1 12 4.4 Macomb 13 1.6 40 4.9 Oakland 26 2.2 54 4.5 Saginaw 12 5.6 11 5.4 Wayne (out-county) 42 3.8 60 5.3 Detroit 304 32.5 41 4.3 Total 494 4.9 540 5.4 Data source: Firearms Homicide and Suicides Michigan, February 2006 http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Firearm_Homicide__Suicide_Report_162 746_7.pdf The other counties reported homicides/suicides of 0, 1, 2, and 3 and accounted for the difference.
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linearity is observed for suicides with increasing population, described by the best-fit equation y = 4.669x + 1.028 with r2 = 0.9778, see Figure 1. The firearms-suicides data for Michigan counties, including Detroit city, reveals a strong correlation with population levels, with a nearly PERFECT value for the correlation coefficient (r), or coefficient of determination (r2). There is considerably more scatter in the graph for homicides.
The nearly PEREFCT correlation between firearms-related suicides and the county population implies a near PERFECT homogeneity of factors contributing to (firearm) suicides across population sizes and therefore the need to more effectively address this tragic and preventable cause of selfinflicted violence and deaths. In other words, the work function for suicides (see discussion in Ref. [1] in particular, and also in Refs. [2,3]), is essentially constant across county population sizes.
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Massachusetts (2010)
270 126 138 6
Washington (2010)
609 114 404 91
Data Sources: America Under the Gun Report (April 2013) from Center for American Progress and the Brady Campaign for Prevention of Gun Violence (2011 Scorecard); see Refs. [15-17]. Massachusetts and Washington, on the Atlantic and Pacific coast, respectively, have virtually the same population. The number of homicides is nearly the same but the overall firearms-related death is higher for WA, with the difference being entirely due to suicides. The idea of a work function was first conceived by Einstein, in 1905, to explain the photoelectric effect, see Refs. [4-6]. The work function is the name given
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by Einstein to the nonzero intercept c in the photoelectric law. In this law, x is the frequency of light, the slope h is the Planck constant, and y is the maximum kinetic energy of the electron produced (when light of frequency f shines on the surface of a metal). The nonzero c (or the work function W) tells us something about the difficulty of producing a free electron when light shines on the surface of a metal. The radiant light, which Einstein considered to be a stream of photons with energy , must have the minimum energy W = hf0 where f0 is the cut-off frequency and W the threshold energy of the photon. Likewise, the batting statistics of a baseball player also reveals a work function, similar to the work function in physics, see refs. [7-9]. This has to do with the difficulty of producing hits (or home runs). The work function is now related to the missing hits, or the minimum At Bats (AB) needed to produce hits (or home runs). These points have been discussed more fully in the companion articles [1-3]. The work function in the gun violence, the name that has been given to the nonzero intercept c, also tells us something about the difficulty of the achieving the gun violence outcome, such a firearms-related suicide. This also means that a lot more can clearly be done with more effective gun laws, and also with health care initiatives to address mental health issues, to reduce this tragic and preventable cause of self-inflicted violence, see Refs. [10-13]. It is hoped that our lawmakers and legal professionals will pay heed and work to examine more critically the reasons for the remarkable homogeneity observed here and what aspect of the gun laws need to strengthened to reduce the work function, or the incidence of firearms-related suicides, not only in Michigan, but across the country, and even across nations. Although I have not yet fully studied all of the suicides data, my experience over the past 15 years of analysis a wide variety of such data (Ref. [14]) convinces me and allows me to make a bold statement that the results being reported here for Michigan are NOT isolated and will be widely observed if we study such data across different states, and also across different nations. Hence, this brief and urgent note.
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Data Source: America Under the Gun, by Arkadi Gerney, Chelsea Parsons, and Charles Posner (Click here). The two letter US Postal abbreviation for each state is used and the data has been sorted by decreasing population to aid in the preparation of the x-y plots. In this appendix, alarmed by the trends observed in Table 2, I have compiled the suicides and the homicides for all 50 states in this updated version. As we
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see from the yellow highlights, the number of firearm suicides exceeds the homicides in the large majority of cases. The Suicides/Homicides (S/H) ratio varies from 1.10 for Massachusetts (MA) to as high as 15.17 for Idaho (ID). Only six states, Delaware (DL), Louisiana (LA), New York (NY), Illinois (IL), Maryland (MD), and New Jersey (NJ) have a S/H ratio of less than 1. Even in these states the S/H ratio varies from a low of 0.72 for NJ to a high of 0.96 for DL. No information (on homicides) is available for six of the remaining states (HI, NH, SD, ND, VT and WY) to determine the S/H ratio. This is illustrated even more dramatically in Figures 3 and 4.
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0
hundred thousands). The red dots indicate the number of firearm homicides. Red was used to indicate violent killing. But more alarming as we see here is the preponderance of the data that reveal more suicides than homicides. American are NOT killing each other with their guns. They are killing themselves. NRA lobbyists, please wake up. It is your old mom and dad, who live in Florida, it is your grandma and grandpa who are most likely killing themselves (I have not studied this in detail and am no expert and will let other social scientists make the final call, but my intuitive feeling is that it is the senior citizens of Florida who are killing themselves in alarming numbers.)
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00
preponderance of the data that reveal more suicides than homicides in each state. Americans are killing themselves, not each other. It is clear that we have a suicide EPIDEMIC in the United States. Violent crimes in the USA, especially the increasing incidence of mass murder rampages over the last decade or so, has always engaged our attention and fed the popular perception that we are a violent nation. This is further exacerbated by the fact that Americans have the highest gun ownership rates in the world. Sadly, however, the brutal facts here tell otherwise. Americans are NOT running amok killing each other with their guns, as the popular perception goes around the world. They are actually blowing their own heads off! The number of firearms suicides exceeds the firearms homicides in 38 out of 44 states for which data is available to determine the S/H ratio. My earlier interests and study of traffic fatality data (as a R & D professional at the General Motors Research Labs in the 1990s), see Refs. [18,19], tells me that immediate action must be taken to reverse this trend. What we have here is a SUICIDE EPIDEMIC just like the carnage on the highways in the 1960s which forced Congress to hold highly publicized hearings and also enact the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act (signed by President Lyndon Johnson, on September 9, 1966). This led to the creation of the US Department of Transportation and the safety standards for motor vehicles and also roads, which we now take for granted, Refs. [20-22]. Seat belt laws were acted in most states and safety features such as seat belt and airbags (once resisted by the auto industry, citing high costs) are now standard for almost all motor vehicles, even the entry level vehicles, not just the high end luxury models. However, in the 1960s, there was a huge increase in the number of highway deaths, year after year, with no speed limits on many states. A literal carnage on the roads and Congress was forced to act. However, the number of traffic fatalities started decreasing only after the National Speed Limit of 55 mph was also implemented, shortly thereafter, following the Arab oil embargo of 1973 (to punish America for its support of Israel during the Seven Day War of 1973).
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US Highway Fatalities
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Just look at what Texans are doing to themselves. There were 1702 firearms suicides in in 2010 versus 913 homicide, or a S/H ratio of 1.86. All hat and no cattle, as they say in Texas. These idiots are blowing their own brains off not each other. Look at the number for New York and California, states with strong gun laws. The S/H ratio is 0.87 for NY and 1.11 for CA. Much lower than Texas but not low enough. The Michigan data is presented as notes to Refs.[24, 25]. So, this is what gun control legislation needs to focus on. The steps to be taken to discourage mass murders are easy. The steps to be taken to prevent ready access to guns for this self-inflicted violence are harder to take. The pro-gun lobby, the NRA and the Second Amendment Absolutists must pause and wonder. The debate is NOT about your guns! The debate is about whether we should remain a country where you might be the one you will be blowing your own head off, or one of your loved ones might be blowing their own heads off. Look at the number for Florida too, home to many senior citizens. The S/H ratio for Florida is 1.90, 1454 suicides versus 767 homicides. It is your old mom and dad, grandpa and grandma who seem to blowing their own brains off with their guns. Do we really want this to continue? This is what I have learned today as I was reviewing the gun violence statistics. And I have done my part to call attention to this tragedy that is consuming Americans literally. Now, it is the duty of everyone who reads this article to take the next step and forward this to a friend and loved one and call the attention of your Congressperson and Senators to act and pass legislation that will put an end to this tragedy. It can be done. It was done. It was done in 1966 when Congress had the courage to pass the National Traffic Safety Act.
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Reference List
1. Brady Campaign State Rankings and the Firearms-related Death Rates: Einsteins Work Function Reappears, Published May 13, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/141292101/The-Brady-Campaign-StateRanking-and-the-Firearms-Death-Rates-Einstein-s-Work-FunctionReappears 2. Comparison of the Strong and Weak Gun Law States and the Ten States with Highest Level of Gun Violence: Least Squares Analysis of the Data, Published May 10, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/140536622/Comparison-of-the-Strong-andWeak-Gun-law-States-and-the-Ten-States-With-Highest-Levels-of-GunViolence-Least-Squares-Analysis-of-the-Data 3. Gun Death Statistics and the Method of Least Squares and the Forgotten Property of a Straight Line, Published May 8, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/140152581/Gun-Death-Statistics-and-theMethod-of-Least-Squares-and-the-Forgotten-Property-of-a-Straight-line 4. Einsteins Photoelectric Equation and the Electromotive Force, by R. A. Millikan, Phys. Rev. 1916, Vol. VII, No. 1, Second Series, pp. 18-32. http://www.ffn.ub.es/luisnavarro/nuevo_maletin/Millikan_1916_1.pdf 5. A Direct Photoelectric Determination of Plancks h, R. A. Millikan, Phys. Rev. 1916, vol. VII, No. 3, pp. 355-390. http://mapageweb.umontreal.ca/leonelli/PHY3320/millikan.pdf 6. The Electron and the Light Quanta from the Experimental Point of View, by Robert A. Millikan, Nobel lecture, May 23, 1924, see pages 61 to 63. The graph for sodium is on page 63. 7. Babe Ruths 1923 Batting Statistics and Einsteins Work Function, Published April 17, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136489156/BabeRuth-s-1923-Batting-Statistics-and-Einstein-s-Work-Function 8. Babe Ruth Batting Statistics and Einsteins Work Function, To be Published April 17, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136556738/BabeRuth-Batting-Statistics-and-Einstein-s-Work-Function 9. The Method of Least Squares: Predicting the Batting Average of a Baseball Player (Hamilton in 2013), Published May 7, 2013,
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10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16. 17.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/139924317/The-Method-of-Least-SquaresPredicting-the-Batting-Average-of-a-Baseball-Player-Hamilton-in-2013 Guns and Suicide: A fatal link, Spring 2008, http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/magazine/guns-and-suicide/ Study by the Harvard School of Public Health, of all the 50 U.S. states, reveals a powerful link between rates of firearm ownership and suicides. Means Matter, Suicides, Guns and Public Health, http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/means-matter/ Reducing access to lethal means saves lives. Gun crime statistics by US state: latest data, Datablog, Posted by Simon Rogers, December 17, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/10/gun-crime-usstate Total firearm murders and the firearm murder rates (per 100,000 population) for all states is given here. Gun Control 2013: Suicide Stats Irrelevant to Gun Control Policy, Matt MacBradaigh, in Politics, May 6, 2013, http://www.policymic.com/articles/38391/gun-control-2013-suicidestats-are-irrelevant-to-gun-control-policy Bibliography, Articles on Extension of Plancks Ideas and Einsteins Ideas beyond physics, Compiled on April 16, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136492067/Bibliography-Articles-on-theExtension-of-Planck-s-Ideas-and-Einstein-s-Ideas-on-Energy-Quantum-totopics-Outside-Physics-by-V-Laxmanan Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, 2011 Scorecards, http://www.bradycampaign.me/sites/default/files/2011_Brady_Campaig n_State_Scorecard_Rankings.pdf American Under the Gun, http://www.americanprogress.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/03/AmericaUnderTheGun.pdf Full report here. A 50 State Analysis of Gun Violence and its Link to Weak State Gun Laws, by Arkadi Gerney, Chelsea Parsons, and Charles Posner, April 4, 2013, Center for American Progress Report, Brief discussion here, http://truth-out.org/news/item/15524
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18. Does Speed Kill? Forgotten US Highway Deaths in the 1950s and 1960s, August 3, 2012, http://www.scribd.com/doc/101982715/DoesSpeed-Kill-Forgotten-US-Highway-Deaths-in-1950s-and-1960s 19. The Effect of Speed Limits on Fatalities and Texas Proofing of Vehicles, August 3, 2012, http://www.scribd.com/doc/101983375/Effect-of-Speed-Limits-onFatalities-Texas-Proofing-of-Vehicles 20. National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Traffic_and_Motor_Vehicle_Safety_Act
21. Top 10 Presidential influences on the auto industry, http://www.forbes.com/pictures/ehmk45ielk/6-highway-safety-act-andnational-traffic-motor-vehicle-safety-act-1966-lyndon-johnson-2/ 22. US Department of Transportation: Office of the Historian, http://ntl.bts.gov/historian/chronology.htm 23. Spate of Suicides Vexes Gun Range, by Matthew Dolan, March 8, 2013, The WSJ Online, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324178904578340450 098246978.html 24. As car get safer, gun death eclipse traffic fatalities in Michigan, by Pat Shellenbarger, Bridge Magazine, April 10, 2013, http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/as_cars_get_safer_gun _deaths_e.html The ten year average (2002-2011) for suicides and homicides in 569.1 and 492.2 for a S/H ratio of 569.1/492.2 = 1.16. The ten year average for traffic deaths is 1114.3 and for firearms (overall) is 1061.3 25. Early Estimates of of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities, 2012, Traffic Safety Facts, DOT HS 811 741, http://wwwnrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811741.pdf
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50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 43,510 42,708 41,259 37,423 34,080 33,883 32,999 32,367
US Highway Fatalities (vertical axis) increased for the first time in 2012 after six straight years of decline, since 2005, see Ref. [25]. The early estimate for 2012 is 34,080 fatalities. The fatality rate (fatalities per 100 million VMT) will go up, for the first time, from 1.10 in 2011 to 1.16 in 2012.
200
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
And, in Michigan, the data indicates that traffic fatalities have been declining (red squares) while firearms deaths (total, homicides plus suicides) have not making it more likely that, in Michigan, one is more likely to die from a bullet than in a car accident. Data source, Ref. [24].
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actually have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law and was deduced fro m Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton. Finally, during my professional career, I also twice had the opportunity and great honor to make presentations to two Nobel laureates: first at NASA to Prof. Robert Schrieffer (1972 Physics Nobel Prize), who was the Chairman of the Schrieffer Committee appointed to review NASAs space flight experiments (following the loss of the space shuttle Challenger on January 28, 1986) and second at GM Research Labs to Prof. Robert Solow (1987 Nobel Prize in economics), who was Chairman of Corporate Research Review Committee, appointed by GM corporate management.
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