15 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 May 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
398.00
270.90
398.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
585
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
292.20
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
357
0.66
COBHAM
277.10
190.10
277.10
Neutral
Buy
309
0.82
MEGGITT
521.50
364.30
521.50
Sell
Sell
447
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1218.00
780.75
1218.00
Neutral
Neutral
1166
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1313.00
979.50
1328.00
Neutral
Sell
1125
0.71
1738.00
1424.00
1745.00
Neutral
Neutral
1656
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
292.30
173.60
292.30
Neutral
Neutral
278
2.02
INCHCAPE
525.50
305.20
530.00
Neutral
Neutral
521
1.48
LOOKERS
100.50
56.50
102.00
Neutral
Neutral
110
1.23
24.00
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Buy
35
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
314.05
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-804
1.94
746.40
503.20
746.40
Neutral
Buy
942
1.17
58.86
25.29
58.94
Sell
Sell
1.89
302.50
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-161
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1585.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3214
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
549.50
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
596
0.55
DIAGEO
2069.00
1477.00
2085.00
Sell
Sell
1829
0.55
SABMILLER
3645.00
2348.50
3655.50
Neutral
Buy
4137
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
301.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
675
1.23
CARCLO
375.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Buy
419
0.73
2592.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2085
1.04
247.00
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
353
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2640.00
2080.27
2640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
12508
1.45
VICTREX
1620.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1456
1.14
SYNTHOMER
216.70
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
216
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
216.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
390
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
86.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
242
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
222.70
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
932
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
311.40
114.00
323.30
Neutral
Buy
444
1.58
BELLWAY
1270.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1812
1.15
2125.00
1180.00
2140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3255
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
187.00
115.50
187.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
336
0.83
730.00
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
540
1.20
CARILLION
269.00
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
743
1.12
CLARKE (T)
53.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
0.82
271.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
543
0.57
1406.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
808
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
948.00
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1592
1.01
KELLER
867.00
348.25
890.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2022
1.26
1199.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3186
0.97
69.75
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
209
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
122.25
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
540.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3205
0.87
15.75
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
32
1.15
NORCROS
1098.00
496.69
1109.00
Neutral
Buy
1376
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
214.90
107.30
215.90
Neutral
Buy
275
1.09
SIG
170.50
82.30
170.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
492
1.79
2.00
2.00
14.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
49
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
94.50
40.28
96.55
Neutral
Buy
123
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1442.00
906.50
1511.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2455
2.01
WOLSELEY
3370.00
2121.32
3370.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5323
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1342.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
830
0.75
675.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
911
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
124.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
1.29
INVENSYS
392.10
198.90
399.70
Neutral
Sell
372
1.41
LAIRD
204.90
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
75
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1524.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1271
1.00
RENISHAW
1774.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2553
1.26
SPECTRIS
2153.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2395
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.15
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
177.25
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
441
1.58
XAAR
625.00
185.00
625.00
Sell
Sell
253
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
84.50
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
99
1.28
BODYCOTE
538.00
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
531
1.60
CASTINGS
330.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
731
0.99
VESUVIUS
373.30
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
520
2.20
FENNER
366.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
576
1.42
HALMA
531.00
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
412
0.75
452.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
344
1.37
1325.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1434
1.41
277.40
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
563
1.82
2935.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2297
1.00
266.70
177.00
266.70
Sell
Sell
221
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
40.00
35.40
103.33
Neutral
Sell
30
SPIRAX-SARCO
2822.00
1900.00
2822.00
Sell
Sell
2389
0.84
VITEC GROUP
597.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
619
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2445.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2128
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
398.00
398.00
523.50
Buy
Strong Buy
689
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
291.90
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
185
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
390.30
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
207
0.57
TESCO
376.80
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
266
0.68
87.00
18.88
87.00
Sell
Sell
64
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
2013.00
1167.00
2013.00
Neutral
Neutral
2160
0.62
CRANSWICK
1082.00
732.50
1082.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2133
0.43
DAIRY CREST
471.90
307.00
471.90
Neutral
Neutral
517
0.94
DEVRO
340.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
528
0.32
73.25
54.50
130.25
Neutral
Sell
-184
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
867.00
633.50
870.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1591
0.71
2822.00
2007.00
2845.00
Neutral
Neutral
2849
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.63
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.69
448.60
224.40
451.00
Neutral
Sell
382
0.54
1394.00
1000.00
1455.00
Neutral
Sell
1029
1.27
625.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
294
0.95
36.83
12.67
37.50
Neutral
Buy
41
1.51
136.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.13
31.00
19.50
40.25
Sell
Strong Buy
107
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
400.10
189.00
400.10
Neutral
Buy
528
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
835.00
606.50
855.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1590
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
53.00
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
92
1.25
KINGFISHER
325.50
254.10
330.60
Neutral
Buy
411
0.94
420.60
312.20
423.60
Neutral
Buy
544
0.65
56.25
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
63
1.04
347.25
160.00
362.00
Neutral
Neutral
370
0.47
NEXT
4600.00
2899.00
4601.00
Neutral
Sell
3915
0.67
TED BAKER
1362.00
840.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
691
0.55
67.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.50
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
117
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
788.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
579
0.39
OPTOS
156.00
145.75
257.00
Neutral
Neutral
168
1.18
766.00
580.00
769.00
Neutral
Sell
687
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
737.50
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
718
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
332.50
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
295
0.92
80.00
55.25
91.50
Neutral
Buy
104
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1076.00
469.00
1076.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
558
Beta
0.74
543.00
200.30
544.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1290
1.18
63.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
48
0.90
312.60
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
525
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
136.50
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
695
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
204.50
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-504
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1275.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1261
0.53
AMLIN
429.30
312.90
431.50
Neutral
Sell
90
0.46
BEAZLEY
230.00
132.50
231.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1302
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
541.00
399.00
541.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2019
0.30
HISCOX
575.00
385.08
575.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2596
0.48
914.00
659.00
914.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1734
0.31
113.10
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
938
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
490.00
345.00
492.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2944
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2382.00
1969.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4109
1.01
99.00
55.50
114.70
Neutral
Buy
111
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
347.20
158.00
350.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
802
1.01
802.50
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
693
0.39
GREENE KING
749.50
474.30
749.50
Neutral
Sell
670
0.93
LADBROKES
209.90
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
259
0.93
1966.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1524
1.18
CARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
555.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
664
1.40
375.40
217.40
375.40
Sell
Sell
326
1.12
144.40
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.25
10.00
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
53
1.27
157.00
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
517
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
485.90
275.90
488.10
Neutral
Sell
332
WETHERSPOON (JD)
622.50
373.50
622.50
Neutral
Buy
763
0.69
WHITBREAD
2710.00
1786.00
2710.00
Neutral
Sell
2047
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
429.40
245.70
430.70
Neutral
Sell
264
0.87
MARSTON'S
150.80
94.40
150.80
Neutral
Sell
21
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
323.60
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
723
1.25
CHESNARA
257.75
155.25
257.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
404
0.70
182.60
106.00
182.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
365
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
219.50
138.70
220.40
Neutral
Neutral
210
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1163.00
660.00
1177.00
Neutral
Sell
1038
1.71
597.50
303.40
597.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1516
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
15 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
116.25
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-615
0.37
823.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1821
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
47.00
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
163
1.03
738.00
363.50
744.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4284
1.14
1.00
1013.00
672.50
1013.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7982
INFORMA
505.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-80
1.53
ITE GROUP
293.30
180.00
293.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
1.45
ITV
131.70
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1333
1.54
17.88
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Buy
816
1.27
1195.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
333
0.63
81.00
36.25
82.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2746
0.79
277.25
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
914
0.16
35.01
26.85
35.01
Neutral
Sell
-613
0.50
STV GROUP
131.00
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
278
0.79
ST.IVES
150.00
67.50
153.00
Neutral
Sell
243
1.50
91.50
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-270
1.59
737.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1793
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
156.50
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1416
WPP
1147.00
743.00
1147.00
Neutral
Sell
-529
1.35
HIBU
0.39
0.26
3.22
Neutral
Strong Buy
847
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1550.00
1550.00
2215.00
Buy
Sell
1185
1.74
239.00
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
232
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
939.50
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
860
1.41
1920.00
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2905
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
340.35
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
981
#NA
LONMIN
265.10
240.84
428.18
Neutral
Buy
342
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4989.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
3000
0.34
RIO TINTO
2967.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2311
1.50
3.38
14.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
166
0.89
832.50
1299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2132
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1254.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1227.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1259
0.80
BP
468.55
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1585
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
276.10
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-22
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.94
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14
0.82
856.50
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
454
1.31
1.36
67.00
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
306
393.30
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
291
1.43
2355.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9569
0.84
390.50
264.20
404.30
Neutral
Sell
252
0.53
1039.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
922
1.04
826.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
814
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
117.00
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
389.10
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
321
0.69
4800.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4837
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.45
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
1.01
3342.50
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6562
0.47
BTG
346.60
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
169
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
704.50
460.00
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
729
0.25
1695.00
1317.50
1695.00
Neutral
Sell
1581
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.15
1.55
4.00
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2055.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1377
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
45.50
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-135
0.73
VERNALIS
22.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
424.80
274.50
426.20
Neutral
Sell
-615
1.18
BRITISH LAND
620.00
475.40
625.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1821
1.06
Target
Beta
35.25
22.75
35.50
Sell
Strong Buy
163
0.85
991.50
595.00
991.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4284
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2454.00
1708.00
2454.00
Sell
Strong Buy
7982
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
173.25
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-80
0.99
GRAINGER
149.90
83.10
150.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
572.00
367.80
572.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1333
1.10
HAMMERSON
551.00
409.20
551.00
Neutral
Buy
816
1.19
HELICAL BAR
277.00
164.00
277.00
Neutral
Buy
333
0.77
934.50
704.00
934.50
Sell
Strong Buy
2746
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
353.50
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
914
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
144.00
127.00
145.38
Neutral
Sell
-613
0.73
413.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
278
0.42
330.50
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
243
0.35
71.00
32.50
71.00
Sell
Sell
-270
1.19
SAVILLS
582.00
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1793
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
638.50
492.00
639.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1416
1.05
SEGRO
288.70
209.40
288.70
Neutral
Sell
-529
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
307.30
145.50
307.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
847
1.59
215.00
147.00
215.00
Neutral
Sell
-13
1.01
UNITE GROUP
375.30
180.25
375.30
Neutral
Sell
53
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1196
1.03
390.70
215.50
390.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1373
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
128.00
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
122
0.73
2265.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1322
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
453.90
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1353
1.00
KOFAX
320.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
323
1.11
27.25
18.25
27.25
Sell
Sell
24
0.85
681.50
431.48
706.00
Neutral
Buy
1009
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
130.00
130.00
222.00
Buy
Strong Buy
308
0.74
68.00
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-92
0.52
1925.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
2085
0.76
357.00
247.70
357.00
Neutral
Buy
418
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
463.50
237.30
468.00
Neutral
Sell
150
BREWIN DOLPHIN
208.00
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
122
0.73
9950.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9380
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
393.00
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
205
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
137.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
134
0.69
1063.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
235
0.86
92.80
67.00
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
102
0.89
3.21
0.55
3.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
179.00
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
66
1.44
ICAP
339.70
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
237
1.07
1.70
HELPHIRE GROUP
439.50
227.30
439.50
Neutral
Sell
177
INVESTEC
497.60
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
127
1.56
1335.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3508
1.15
121.60
63.25
125.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
473
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1488.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1122
0.75
SCHRODERS
2481.00
1166.00
2481.00
Sell
Sell
1213
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1949.00
966.00
1949.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3835
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
213.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
299
0.92
AGGREKO
1768.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1322
1.05
AMEC
1075.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1157
1.04
613.50
212.20
635.00
Neutral
Sell
326
1.63
1163.00
827.00
1163.00
Sell
Sell
679
0.48
557.00
324.00
559.00
Neutral
Buy
818
0.76
1319.00
990.00
1320.00
Neutral
Sell
1008
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
442.50
214.00
445.00
Neutral
Neutral
452
0.39
CAPITA
938.00
602.00
942.50
Neutral
Sell
535
0.51
55.38
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
69
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
870.00
616.00
870.00
Neutral
Sell
619
BERENDSEN
764.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
1000
1.05
DE LA RUE
961.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
612
#NA
DIGNITY
1433.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Sell
824
0.22
DIPLOMA
580.00
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
496
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
263.10
195.20
265.00
Neutral
Buy
328
1.04
FILTRONA
745.00
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
355
1.13
G4S
258.90
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Buy
299
0.58
95.80
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
124
1.10
HOMESERVE
215.00
137.50
248.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
499
0.94
INTERSERVE
498.20
271.40
510.50
Neutral
Buy
702
1.28
3412.00
2456.00
3451.00
Neutral
Sell
1480
0.78
44.25
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
96
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
31.00
21.25
34.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
MENZIES (JOHN)
799.50
542.00
799.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1321
1.43
392.80
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
326
1.42
MITIE GROUP
270.00
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
350
0.55
97.00
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
0.33
PAYPOINT
849.50
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
704
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
227.60
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
293
1.33
REGUS
176.70
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
109
1.46
93.50
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
56
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
535.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
543
0.90
RICARDO
390.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
481
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
218.00
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
315
1.24
RPC GROUP
404.00
351.00
477.00
Neutral
Buy
547
0.78
RPS GROUP
234.10
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Neutral
253
1.51
SERCO GROUP
632.00
509.50
635.50
Neutral
Sell
592
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
83.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
172
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
53.25
22.25
53.25
Sell
Neutral
53
1.26
153.50
73.75
153.50
Neutral
Sell
52
0.63
53.00
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
63
0.93
333.00
237.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
636
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
187
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
15 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
311.50
200.70
311.50
Neutral
Buy
352
42.57
27.28
43.08
Neutral
Strong Buy
84
0.70
700.00
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
615
0.53
Beta
0.91
87.00
67.00
87.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
134
1.24
1214.00
695.00
1239.00
Neutral
Sell
759
0.09
193.50
154.45
197.20
Neutral
Sell
173
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
269.90
178.00
273.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
179
Beta
1.30
416.00
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
460
0.98
CLARKSON
1650.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1490
0.80
EASYJET
1130.00
481.20
1153.00
Neutral
Sell
678
0.77
FIRST GROUP
220.80
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
568
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
954.50
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
401
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1522.00
1086.00
1558.00
Neutral
Buy
1877
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
212.80
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
254
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
335.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
618
STAGECOACH GROUP
313.00
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
367
0.89
54.50
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-44
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
384.90
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
527
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
847.00
641.00
847.00
Neutral
Buy
936
0.50
PENNON GROUP
695.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
866
0.59
SSE
1611.00
1294.00
1611.00
Neutral
Buy
1882
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2077.00
1513.00
2077.00
Neutral
Sell
1702
0.35
760.50
617.50
760.50
Neutral
Neutral
755
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
15 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
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the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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