Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 16, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 16, 2013

Highlights
US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.7 percent in April. European Flash GDP declined by 0.2 percent for Q1 2013. US Industrial Production declined by 0.5 percent in the last month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note on the back of unfavorable economic data from US in yesterdays trade. While on the other hand, Japans grew more than expected which cushioned sharp fall in the markets. US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.7 percent in April as against a decline of 0.6 percent in March. Core PPI was at 0.1 percent in last month from earlier rise of 0.2 percent in March. Empire State Manufacturing Index was at -1.4-mark in May as compared to rise of 3.1-level in April. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases decline to $13.5 billion in March with respect to fall of $13.3 billion a month ago. Capacity Utilization Rate was at 77.8 percent in April when compared to 78.3 percent in March. Industrial Production declined by 0.5 percent in April from rise of 0.3 percent in prior month. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index increased by 3 points to 44-mark in May as against a rise of 41-level in earlier month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6146.8 20213.0 15275.69 1658.8 17493.0 1971.3 58497.8 15096.0 94.30 1396.50 2264.30 7199.25 102.09 Prev. day 2.5 2.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 0.1 -2.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0

as on May 15, 2013 WoW 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.8 4.8 -0.1 -2.4 -4.9 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 MoM 8.1 7.9 5.1 6.9 13.0 2.5 10.0 14.2 7.5 0.3 -1.4 -8.2 -0.1 YoY 25.2 10.5 20.9 24.7 31.4 1.0 4.7 69.6 0.3 -10.5 -16.7 -7.2 0.4

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) increased by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavorable economic data from the country also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of US equities trading on a positive note. The currency touched an intra-day high of 84.22 and closed at 83.96 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.96 54.78 54.93 54.94 Prev. day 0.3 0.0 -0.06 -0.04 WoW 2.5 -1.3 1.39 1.40

as on May 15, 2013 MoM 1.4 -1.1 0.43 0.42 YoY 5.7 -1.8 1.83 1.84

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated marginally by 0.01 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of increase in inflows of foreign funds. Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the Indian Rupee was capped as a result of dollar demand from importers coupled with strength in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 54.65 and closed at 54.78 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.9,051.20 crores th ($1,671.42 million) as on 15 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.70,087.60 crores ($12,981.80 million) till 15 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, dollar demand from importers will exert downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for May 16, 2013 Support 54.80/54.60 Resistance 55.20/55.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 16, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak economic data from euro zone. However, sharp depreciation in the currency was cushioned on the back of optimistic global market sentiments. French Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged and declined by 0.2 percent in Q1 of 2013. German Prelim GDP increased by 0.1 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a decline of 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2012. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1 percent in April from rise of 0.8 percent in March. Italian Prelim GDP declined by 0.5 percent in first quarter of current year as compared to fall of 0.9 percent in last quarter of 2012. European Flash GDP declined by 0.2 percent for the quarter ending on March 2013 with respect to earlier drop of 0.6 percent in Q4 of 2012. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2842 and closed at 1.2886 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of streng th in DX coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, euro zone economy contracted by 0.2 percent in first quarter of 2013 may act as a negative factor for the euro. Additionally, investors may keep an eye on inflation data which may keep currency under pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.50/70.30 71.00/71.30 valid for May 16, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2886 70.48 70.7 70.7 Prev. day -0.2 0.5 -0.69 -0.68

as on May 15, 2013 WoW -2.0 1.0 -0.63 -0.63 MoM -1.1 0.6 -1.13 -1.13 YoY 1.2 -4.0 2.05 2.04

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5233 83.478 83.59 Prev. day 0.15 0.040 -0.46

as on May 15, 2013

WoW -1.9 -0.83 -0.49

MoM 0.0 0.05 -0.27

YoY -4.7 -2.92 -3.37

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.15 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of decline in Unemployment rate in the country coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. Further, optimistic comments from Bank of England (BOE) supported sterling pound. However, strength in DX capped sharp upside in the currency. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 7,300 in April as against a fall of 7,000 in March. Average Earnings Index increased by 0.4 percent in March from earlier rise of 0.8 percent a month ago. Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.8 percent in March as compared to rise of 7.9 percent in prior month. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5271 and closed at 1.5233 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. However, favorable economic data from the country along with optimistic comments from BOE may cushion sharp downside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for May 16, 2013 Support 83.30/83.00 Resistance 83.90/84.20

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.57

-0.46

-0.49

-0.28

-3.38

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 16, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of unfavorable economic data from the country. Japans Consumer Confidence fell by 0.3 points to 44.5-mark in April as against a rise of 44.8-level in March. Prelim GDP grew by 0.9 percent in the last quarter ending on March 2013. Prelim GDP Price Index declined by 1.2 percent in Q1 of 2013 from earlier fall of 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2012. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 101.86 and closed at 102.23 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 16, 2013 Support 53.45/53.30 Resistance 53.70/53.85

JPY (% change)
Last 102.23 0.5358 53.55 53.55 Prev day -0.1 -0.07 -1.11 -1.14

as on May 15, 2013 WoW 3.3 -2.15 -2.29 -2.30 MoM 4.2 -4.92 -4.36 -4.36 YoY 27.5 -19.99 -20.62 -20.62

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 16, 2013

Indicator Prelim GDP q/q French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q CPI y/y Core CPI y/y FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks Building Permits Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m Housing Starts Philly Fed Manufacturing Index FOMC Member Raskin Speaks Country Japan Europe Europe Europe US US US US US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 12:15pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 5:15pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 10:00pm Actual 0.9% Forecast 0.7% -0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.94M 0.2% 332K -0.3% 0.98M 2.5 Previous 0.0% -0.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.91M 0.1% 323K -0.2% 1.04M 1.3 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium High Medium

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