Anda di halaman 1dari 17

Powered by

20 May 2013

Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6

Automobiles & Parts


Banks
Beverages

Over Valued .........................................................................................6


Under Valued ..................................................................................6

Under Valued ..................................................................................6


Under Valued ....................................................7
Construction & Building Materials

Chemicals

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ..................................................7


Over Valued ...............................................................8

Over Valued .......................................................................8


Under Valued ........................................................8

Food Producers & Processors


Under Valued ..............................................................................9
General Retail
Over Valued .........................................................................................9
Heath
Over Valued ..........................................................9
Over Valued ...............................................9

Household Goods & Textiles

Information Technology & Hardware


Under Valued ................................................................................... 10
Insurance
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Leisure & Hotels
Life Assurance

Over Valued .................................................................... 10


Under Valued ................................................................ 11

Media & Entertainment


Under Valued ...................................................................................... 11
Mining
Under Valued ................................................................................... 11
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products

Over Valued .......................................... 12


Over Valued ................................................ 12

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Under Valued ............................................................................... 12
Real Estate
Under Valued .................................................... 13
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Over Valued .......................................................... 13


Over Valued ..................................................................... 14

Over Valued ....................................................... 15


Telecommunication Services
Under
Valued
Transport
................................................................................... 15
Under
Valued
Utilities
....................................................................................... 15

DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 2 of 17

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 3 of 17

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions. If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other
equity investments, you should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be
suitable for everyone. The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise
and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,
fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 4 of 17

How to use the report


This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the markets
open - and is based upon previous days closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based


upon implied target price
Todays action
Sector

Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Latest 12 month Hi/Lo for


the share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

eta measures a shares


volatility/risk relative to
market (see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

eta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)

eta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 5 of 17

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BAE SYSTEMS

410.00

270.90

410.00

Neutral

Buy

Target
592

Beta
0.67

CHEMRING GROUP

291.50

217.00

414.70

Neutral

Buy

363

0.66

COBHAM

281.20

190.10

282.10

Neutral

Buy

311

0.82

MEGGITT

520.50

364.30

521.50

Neutral

Sell

449

1.32

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS

1178.00

780.75

1225.00

Neutral

Neutral

1169

1.07

SMITHS GROUP

1343.00

979.50

1343.00

Neutral

Sell

1136

0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG.

1775.00

1424.00

1775.00

Neutral

Sell

1670

0.51

Unde r V a lue d

Automobiles & Parts


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GKN

305.80

173.60

305.80

Sell

Neutral

292

2.02

INCHCAPE

561.00

305.20

564.50

Neutral

Neutral

549

1.48

LOOKERS

107.00

56.50

108.25

Neutral

Neutral

117

1.23

24.25

13.50

25.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

37

1.11

PENDRAGON

Target

Over Valued

Banks
Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

BARCLAYS

326.80

150.55

327.35

Neutral

Sell

-793

1.94

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)

758.60

503.20

758.60

Neutral

Buy

951

1.17

62.84

25.29

62.84

Sell

Sell

10

1.89

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP


ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.

336.80

196.60

367.80

Neutral

Sell

-135

1.35

STANDARD CHARTERED

1623.00

1228.50

1837.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

3235

1.70

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

571.00

348.00

572.00

Neutral

Neutral

607

0.55

DIAGEO

2028.00

1477.00

2085.00

Neutral

Sell

1816

0.55

SABMILLER

3599.50

2348.50

3657.00

Neutral

Buy

4087

0.95

BARR (AG)

Beta

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)

324.10

240.00

406.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

653

1.23

CARCLO

361.75

345.75

503.00

Neutral

Neutral

395

0.73

2607.00

2094.00

2841.00

Neutral

Sell

2130

1.04

245.00

179.00

275.00

Neutral

Buy

349

0.99

CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS

Target

Beta

JOHNSON MATTHEY

2636.00

2080.27

2649.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

11856

1.45

VICTREX

1658.00

1185.00

1736.00

Neutral

Sell

1473

1.14

SYNTHOMER

201.20

127.40

225.80

Neutral

Neutral

207

1.16

ZOTEFOAMS

192.50

157.00

225.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

375

1.00

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 6 of 17

Under Valued

Construction & Building Materials


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ALUMASC GROUP

93.00

61.50

104.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

253

0.51

BALFOUR BEATTY

227.20

207.60

320.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

993

0.80

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS

346.30

114.00

346.30

Sell

Buy

467

1.58

BELLWAY

1359.00

660.00

1377.00

Neutral

Buy

1921

1.15

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)

2195.00

1180.00

2207.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3378

0.66

BOOT (HENRY)

201.00

115.50

201.00

Sell

Strong Buy

352

0.83

BOVIS HOMES GROUP

765.00

399.30

778.50

Neutral

Sell

570

1.20

CARILLION

251.20

235.50

331.80

Strong Buy

Strong Buy

801

1.12

CLARKE (T)

55.50

40.00

61.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

269

0.82

280.75

188.00

306.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

551

0.57

1441.00

1052.00

1540.00

Neutral

Sell

859

1.14

GALLIFORD TRY

995.00

579.00

995.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1703

1.01

KELLER

948.00

348.25

948.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2124

1.26

1195.00

1106.00

1408.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3354

0.97

69.00

49.00

76.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

217

1.07
1.39

COSTAIN GROUP
CRH

KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR

Target

Beta

MARSHALLS

128.00

76.00

130.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

292

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP

550.50

508.00

695.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

3394

0.87

16.00

9.25

18.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

34

1.15

NORCROS

1272.00

496.69

1272.00

Sell

Buy

1455

1.20

REDROW

PERSIMMON

232.40

107.30

232.40

Neutral

Buy

292

1.09

SIG

168.70

82.30

172.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

509

1.79

1.88

1.88

14.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

51

0.88

SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY

101.50

40.28

101.50

Neutral

Buy

131

1.67

TRAVIS PERKINS

1539.00

906.50

1543.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2616

2.01

WOLSELEY

3427.00

2121.32

3427.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5537

1.46

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1328.00

935.00

1364.00

Neutral

Sell

840

0.75

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES

677.50

509.00

717.00

Neutral

Buy

921

1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES

125.25

105.50

144.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

270

1.29

INVENSYS

400.80

198.90

400.80

Neutral

Sell

376

1.41

LAIRD

207.60

177.00

249.30

Neutral

Sell

75

2.13

DIALIGHT

Target

Beta

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS

1618.00

1096.00

1752.00

Neutral

Sell

1286

1.00

RENISHAW

1766.00

1260.00

2081.00

Neutral

Buy

2576

1.26

SPECTRIS

2124.00

1427.00

2470.00

Neutral

Buy

2426

1.52

0.07

0.07

0.14

Neutral

Strong Buy

0.84

TT ELECTRONICS

176.00

114.00

178.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

447

1.58

XAAR

642.00

185.00

695.00

Neutral

Sell

256

1.11

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 7 of 17

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP

87.00

54.25

91.75

Neutral

Buy

106

1.28

BODYCOTE

549.50

310.30

556.50

Neutral

Neutral

531

1.60

CASTINGS

339.00

277.75

358.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

725

0.99

VESUVIUS

365.40

263.19

402.10

Neutral

Buy

527

2.20

FENNER

356.00

329.30

435.20

Neutral

Strong Buy

574

1.42

HALMA

529.00

373.10

531.50

Neutral

Sell

408

0.75

HILL & SMITH

460.50

297.00

480.00

Neutral

Sell

349

1.37

1325.00

776.00

1347.00

Neutral

Neutral

1412

1.41

276.70

220.30

305.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

557

1.82

2834.00

1859.00

3037.00

Neutral

Sell

2243

1.00

269.60

177.00

269.60

Sell

Sell

220

1.64
0.79

IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN

Target

Beta

41.63

35.40

96.69

Neutral

Sell

32

SPIRAX-SARCO

2801.00

1900.00

2822.00

Sell

Sell

2360

0.84

VITEC GROUP

593.00

586.50

740.00

Neutral

Neutral

625

1.39

WEIR GROUP

2399.00

1397.00

2474.00

Neutral

Sell

2109

1.38

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GREGGS

406.20

398.00

523.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

702

0.47

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

286.50

248.60

296.40

Neutral

Sell

181

0.39

SAINSBURY (J)

378.20

283.50

396.50

Neutral

Sell

200

0.57

TESCO

380.80

297.05

387.75

Neutral

Sell

263

0.68

93.00

18.88

93.00

Sell

Sell

67

0.84

THORNTONS

Beta

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors


Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS

1886.00

1167.00

2031.00

Neutral

Buy

2152

0.62

CRANSWICK

1087.00

732.50

1087.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2126

0.43

DAIRY CREST

471.00

309.50

477.60

Neutral

Neutral

512

0.94

DEVRO

345.50

278.00

380.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

528

0.32

73.50

54.50

130.25

Neutral

Sell

-181

1.25

PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

850.00

633.50

874.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1589

0.71

2845.00

2007.00

2852.00

Neutral

Neutral

2822

0.58

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 8 of 17

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS

28.63

20.50

29.50

Neutral

Buy

36

0.69

458.50

224.40

458.50

Neutral

Sell

394

0.54

1456.00

1000.00

1456.00

Neutral

Sell

1058

1.27

648.00

585.00

728.50

Neutral

Sell

304

0.95

42.00

12.67

42.00

Neutral

Neutral

42

1.51

144.75

55.20

186.00

Neutral

Sell

58

1.13

34.00

19.50

34.00

Sell

Strong Buy

110

0.99

HALFORDS GROUP

398.80

189.00

405.20

Neutral

Buy

545

0.68

JD SPORTS FASHION

869.00

606.50

869.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1636

0.53

BROWN (N) GROUP


BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP

DARTY

Target

Beta

60.00

38.00

65.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

97

1.25

KINGFISHER

330.60

254.10

330.60

Neutral

Buy

423

0.94

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP

451.00

312.20

451.00

Neutral

Buy

563

0.65

56.25

42.00

71.00

Neutral

Buy

64

1.04

349.75

161.50

362.00

Neutral

Buy

386

0.47

NEXT

4693.00

2899.00

4693.00

Sell

Sell

4025

0.67

TED BAKER

1420.00

840.00

1420.00

Sell

Sell

711

0.55

67.13

32.13

70.00

Neutral

Sell

55

1.50

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP


MOTHERCARE

TOPPS TILES

Over Valued

Heath
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIOQUELL

146.00

126.00

160.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
119

0.46

CONSORT MEDICAL

780.00

584.00

831.50

Neutral

Sell

580

0.39

OPTOS

122.25

122.25

222.75

Buy

Buy

158

1.18

SMITH & NEPHEW

777.00

580.00

783.50

Neutral

Sell

702

0.43

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

GAMES WORKSHOP

730.00

557.00

742.00

Neutral

Neutral

711

0.44

HEADLAM GROUP

344.75

263.00

355.00

Neutral

Sell

305

0.92

82.25

55.25

90.00

Neutral

Buy

108

0.77

HORNBY

Target

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware


Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
CSR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

1088.00

469.00

1097.00

Neutral

Sell

Target
566

Beta
0.74

561.00

200.30

561.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1311

1.18

63.00

23.50

83.25

Neutral

Sell

49

0.90

337.50

296.00

624.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

533

1.08

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS

132.50

122.00

170.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

708

0.94

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS

226.25

170.00

230.00

Neutral

Sell

-494

0.90

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 9 of 17

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1261.00

1019.00

1374.00

Neutral

Neutral

1220

0.53

AMLIN

427.80

312.90

434.00

Neutral

Sell

67

0.46

BEAZLEY

231.00

132.50

233.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1315

0.60

CATLIN GROUP

543.00

399.00

543.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2067

0.30

HISCOX

577.00

385.08

577.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2620

0.48

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON

906.50

659.00

914.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1743

0.31

RSA INSURANCE GROUP

115.90

97.65

136.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

949

0.41

NOVAE GROUP

500.00

345.00

500.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2959

0.48

ADMIRAL GROUP

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

2391.00

1969.00

2628.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

4263

1.01

ENTERPRISE INNS

116.70

55.50

116.70

Neutral

Neutral

119

1.61

TUI TRAVEL

371.80

158.00

371.80

Neutral

Strong Buy

822

1.01

FULLER SMITH 'A'

805.00

700.00

820.00

Neutral

Sell

718

0.39

GREENE KING

788.50

474.30

788.50

Sell

Sell

696

0.93

LADBROKES

215.00

152.70

243.10

Neutral

Buy

266

0.93

1945.00

1396.63

2039.00

Neutral

Sell

1547

1.18

CARNIVAL

ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.

556.00

455.40

582.50

Neutral

Buy

684

1.40

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS

405.70

217.40

405.70

Sell

Sell

340

1.12

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.

146.00

91.90

156.00

Neutral

Sell

50

1.25

10.50

5.61

13.12

Neutral

Strong Buy

56

1.27

158.30

115.00

177.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

528

1.00
0.76

PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP

513.00

278.80

519.00

Neutral

Sell

341

WETHERSPOON (JD)

652.00

377.00

655.00

Neutral

Buy

786

0.69

WHITBREAD

2798.00

1786.00

2798.00

Sell

Sell

2104

0.99

WILLIAM HILL

445.00

245.70

447.00

Neutral

Sell

271

0.87

MARSTON'S

153.80

94.70

153.80

Neutral

Sell

24

1.21

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

AVIVA

340.30

255.30

388.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

755

1.25

CHESNARA

266.00

155.25

266.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

417

0.70

LEGAL & GENERAL

186.40

106.00

186.40

Neutral

Strong Buy

380

1.71

OLD MUTUAL

221.60

138.70

221.60

Neutral

Neutral

214

1.57

PRUDENTIAL

1193.00

660.00

1193.00

Sell

Sell

1071

1.71

630.00

303.40

630.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1591

0.85

ST.JAMES'S PLACE

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 10 of 17

Under Valued

Media & Entertainment


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BLOOMSBURY PBL.

115.50

102.00

146.50

Neutral

Sell

-620

0.37

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP

793.50

656.00

899.50

Buy

Strong Buy

1857

0.54

CENTAUR MEDIA

Target

Beta

32.13

28.50

60.00

Buy

Strong Buy

166

1.03

DAILY MAIL 'A'

766.00

363.50

766.00

Sell

Strong Buy

4361

1.14

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR

998.00

672.50

1030.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

8154

1.00

INFORMA

526.50

340.00

537.00

Neutral

Sell

-80

1.53

ITE GROUP

294.00

180.00

294.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

257

1.45

ITV

130.30

69.45

132.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

1356

1.54

17.88

4.88

19.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

832

1.27

1202.00

1115.00

1294.00

Neutral

Buy

339

0.63

84.50

36.25

84.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

2798

0.79

272.50

265.00

377.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

932

0.16

35.51

26.85

35.51

Neutral

Sell

-618

0.50

STV GROUP

137.50

81.50

146.88

Neutral

Sell

284

0.79

ST.IVES

160.00

67.50

160.00

Neutral

Sell

249

1.50

TRINITY MIRROR

105.00

25.50

121.25

Neutral

Sell

-272

1.59

UBM

740.00

511.00

788.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1826

1.31
0.84

JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS

WILMINGTON GROUP

153.00

82.00

164.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1443

WPP

1157.00

743.00

1157.00

Neutral

Sell

-533

1.35

HIBU

0.41

0.26

3.22

Neutral

Strong Buy

863

1.07

Under Valued

Mining
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1570.00

1544.00

2215.00

Neutral

Sell

1180

1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP

238.00

215.00

290.00

Neutral

Neutral

229

0.96

ANTOFAGASTA

935.00

884.00

1381.00

Neutral

Sell

848

1.41

1928.50

1681.00

2236.00

Neutral

Buy

2855

1.43

GLENCORE XSTRATA

338.75

293.55

397.85

Buy

Strong Buy

974

#NA

LONMIN

274.10

240.84

421.26

Neutral

Buy

349

2.03

RANDGOLD RESOURCES

4757.00

4545.00

7775.00

Neutral

Sell

2967

0.34

RIO TINTO

2899.50

2715.50

3757.00

Neutral

Sell

2313

1.50

3.38

13.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

164

0.89

832.50

1299.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2078

2.20

ANGLO AMERICAN

BHP BILLITON

COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES

1273.00

Under Valued

Oil & Gas


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

Target

Beta

1231.00

1000.50

1350.50

Neutral

Neutral

1265

0.80

BP

469.95

391.95

475.90

Neutral

Strong Buy

1591

1.03

CAIRN ENERGY

286.50

248.20

309.40

Neutral

Sell

-21

1.32

BG GROUP

FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

8.32

7.66

12.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

14

0.82

873.00

688.00

941.00

Neutral

Sell

457

1.31
1.36

58.25

55.00

120.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

308

381.00

321.30

401.20

Neutral

Sell

292

1.43

2310.00

2039.00

2366.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

9609

0.84

400.90

264.70

404.30

Neutral

Sell

253

0.53

1044.00

977.00

1531.00

Neutral

Sell

928

1.04

829.00

651.50

879.50

Neutral

Neutral

815

1.35

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 11 of 17

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

MCBRIDE

109.50

101.20

144.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

247

0.84

PZ CUSSONS

384.60

297.20

415.60

Neutral

Sell

315

0.69

4718.00

3300.00

4812.00

Neutral

Neutral

4758

0.36

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP

Target

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology


Stock

Beta

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

0.42

0.36

3.58

Buy

Sell

1.01

3383.00

2591.00

3390.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

6672

0.47

BTG

356.60

300.30

423.00

Neutral

Sell

171

0.58

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS

719.00

461.50

780.00

Neutral

Neutral

739

0.25

1712.50

1317.50

1717.50

Neutral

Sell

1609

0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA

2.28

1.55

3.55

Neutral

Sell

0.64

PHYTOPHARM

1.33

1.05

12.75

Buy

Strong Buy

0.95

2050.00

1727.00

2153.00

Neutral

Sell

1399

0.66

ARK THERAPEUTICS GP.


ASTRAZENECA

GLAXOSMITHKLINE

SHIRE

Target

Beta

SKYEPHARMA

50.50

43.50

101.50

Neutral

Sell

-133

0.73

VERNALIS

22.50

21.63

27.38

Neutral

Strong Buy

36

0.91

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BIG YELLOW GROUP

416.10

274.50

426.70

Neutral

Sell

-620

1.18

BRITISH LAND

649.00

475.40

649.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1857

1.06

CAPITAL & REGIONAL

Target

Beta

36.50

22.75

36.50

Sell

Strong Buy

166

0.85

980.00

595.00

991.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

4361

0.70

DERWENT LONDON

2521.00

1708.00

2521.00

Sell

Strong Buy

8154

1.24

DEVELOPMENT SECS.

175.00

121.75

175.00

Neutral

Sell

-80

0.99

GRAINGER

155.60

83.10

155.60

Neutral

Strong Buy

257

1.58

CLS HOLDINGS

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES

593.50

367.80

595.50

Sell

Strong Buy

1356

1.10

HAMMERSON

550.50

409.20

554.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

832

1.19

HELICAL BAR

294.25

164.00

294.25

Neutral

Buy

339

0.77

LAND SECURITIES GROUP

990.00

704.00

990.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

2798

1.16

INTU PROPERTIES

359.60

305.00

366.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

932

1.09

MCKAY SECURITIES

146.00

127.00

146.00

Neutral

Sell

-618

0.73

MUCKLOW (A & J) GROUP

414.00

325.00

437.50

Neutral

Sell

284

0.42

PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.

329.00

312.00

364.50

Neutral

Sell

249

0.35

77.75

32.50

77.75

Sell

Sell

-272

1.19

SAVILLS

599.50

300.80

601.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

1826

0.77

SHAFTESBURY

664.00

492.00

664.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1443

1.05

SEGRO

301.50

209.40

301.50

Sell

Sell

-533

1.73

ST MODWEN PROPS.

323.50

145.50

329.10

Neutral

Strong Buy

863

1.59

QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.

TOWN CENTRE SECURITIES

219.50

147.00

219.50

Neutral

Sell

-12

1.01

UNITE GROUP

379.90

180.25

387.50

Neutral

Sell

56

1.79

WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP

1.41

1.00

2.75

Sell

Sell

-1227

1.03

410.00

215.50

410.00

Sell

Strong Buy

1401

1.05

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 12 of 17

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ANITE

127.80

111.00

162.00

Neutral

Neutral

124

0.73

2289.00

1469.00

2322.00

Neutral

Sell

1341

1.40

AVEVA GROUP

Target

Beta

COMPUTACENTER

461.70

292.40

567.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1375

1.00

KOFAX

325.00

242.00

335.00

Neutral

Neutral

328

1.11

27.25

18.25

27.50

Sell

Sell

25

0.85

MICRO FOCUS INTL.

693.00

431.48

706.00

Neutral

Buy

1011

0.76

PHOENIX IT GROUP

140.00

130.00

222.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

316

0.74

73.25

68.00

85.50

Neutral

Sell

-93

0.52

1949.00

1275.00

1970.00

Neutral

Neutral

2118

0.76

363.50

247.70

363.50

Neutral

Buy

425

0.72

INNOVATION GROUP

RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance


Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.

470.00

237.30

476.40

Neutral

Sell

155

BREWIN DOLPHIN

214.80

136.30

222.00

Neutral

Sell

125

0.73

10100.00

9250.00

11105.00

Neutral

Neutral

9673

0.84

CAMELLIA

Target

Beta
1.09

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP

391.50

247.50

406.25

Neutral

Sell

212

0.97

CHARLES TAYLOR

175.00

140.00

190.00

Neutral

Sell

140

0.69

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP

1079.00

673.50

1107.00

Neutral

Sell

256

0.86

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT

93.05

70.00

110.40

Neutral

Buy

103

0.89

3.32

0.55

3.70

Sell

Strong Buy

25

0.69

HENDERSON GROUP

178.30

90.55

179.60

Neutral

Sell

68

1.44

ICAP

341.60

280.80

376.60

Neutral

Sell

247

1.07
1.70

HELPHIRE GROUP

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP.

456.70

227.30

456.70

Neutral

Sell

175

INVESTEC

506.00

310.40

513.50

Neutral

Sell

140

1.56

1399.00

930.00

1411.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

5955

1.15

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP


MAN GROUP

131.50

63.25

131.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

478

1.32

RATHBONE BROTHERS

1535.00

1151.00

1551.00

Neutral

Sell

1139

0.75

SCHRODERS

2533.00

1166.00

2560.00

Neutral

Sell

1240

1.30

SCHRODERS NV

1990.00

966.00

2000.00

Sell

Strong Buy

3890

1.27

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 13 of 17

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

ACAL

219.00

157.75

242.50

Neutral

Buy

299

0.92

AGGREKO

1747.00

1557.00

2400.00

Neutral

Sell

1333

1.05

AMEC

1044.00

923.00

1172.00

Neutral

Buy

1161

1.04

636.00

212.20

636.00

Neutral

Sell

328

1.63

1136.00

827.00

1163.00

Neutral

Sell

682

0.48

580.25

324.00

580.25

Neutral

Buy

820

0.76

1323.00

990.00

1329.00

Neutral

Sell

1011

0.55

UK MAIL GROUP

450.00

214.00

465.00

Neutral

Neutral

453

0.39

CAPITA

946.00

602.00

947.50

Neutral

Sell

539

0.51

56.00

25.34

56.50

Neutral

Buy

69

0.78
0.74

ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL

COMMUNISIS

Target

Beta

COMPASS GROUP

892.00

616.00

892.00

Sell

Sell

621

BERENDSEN

768.50

462.00

812.00

Neutral

Buy

1008

1.05

DE LA RUE

986.00

891.50

1075.00

Neutral

Sell

617

#NA

DIGNITY

1429.00

803.50

1462.00

Neutral

Sell

830

0.22

DIPLOMA

583.00

417.00

627.50

Neutral

Sell

499

0.96

ELECTROCOMP.

269.80

195.20

269.80

Neutral

Buy

330

1.04

FILTRONA

741.00

428.00

750.00

Neutral

Sell

357

1.13

G4S

249.10

240.00

313.50

Neutral

Buy

300

0.58

95.70

66.40

101.20

Neutral

Buy

124

1.10

HOMESERVE

226.40

137.50

248.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

503

0.94

INTERSERVE

512.00

271.40

512.00

Neutral

Buy

703

1.28

3385.00

2456.00

3453.00

Neutral

Sell

1489

0.78

44.25

26.50

45.75

Neutral

Strong Buy

97

1.17
0.72

HAYS

INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.

31.00

21.25

32.25

Neutral

Strong Buy

57

MENZIES (JOHN)

762.00

542.00

801.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

1320

1.43

MICHAEL PAGE INTL.

393.10

341.40

451.80

Neutral

Sell

327

1.42

MITIE GROUP

273.40

253.90

300.80

Neutral

Buy

351

0.55

92.50

87.50

156.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

245

0.33

PAYPOINT

897.00

605.00

912.50

Neutral

Sell

709

0.71

PREMIER FARNELL

226.70

153.20

236.30

Neutral

Buy

294

1.33

REGUS

172.40

82.65

177.50

Neutral

Sell

109

1.46

93.20

69.40

100.70

Neutral

Sell

56

1.25

OFFICE2OFFICE

RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM

523.00

394.28

547.50

Neutral

Neutral

546

0.90

RICARDO

418.00

304.50

431.00

Neutral

Buy

483

0.86

ROBERT WALTERS

214.50

176.25

232.00

Neutral

Buy

316

1.24

RPC GROUP

396.00

365.40

477.00

Neutral

Buy

549

0.78

RPS GROUP

229.70

197.00

274.20

Neutral

Buy

254

1.51

SERCO GROUP

635.00

509.50

637.50

Neutral

Sell

595

0.60

SHANKS GROUP

84.25

73.00

98.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

173

1.46

SPEEDY HIRE

54.00

22.25

54.25

Neutral

Neutral

53

1.26

149.00

74.00

153.50

Neutral

Sell

52

0.63

54.75

39.50

59.00

Neutral

Buy

63

0.93

339.00

237.00

354.88

Neutral

Strong Buy

640

0.86

78.88

42.00

78.88

Sell

Strong Buy

188

0.79

TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 14 of 17

Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

314.00

200.70

316.30

Neutral

Buy

352

44.30

27.28

44.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

86

0.70

662.00

390.80

749.00

Neutral

Sell

604

0.53

Beta
0.91

87.25

67.00

87.30

Neutral

Strong Buy

136

1.24

1264.00

695.00

1264.00

Sell

Sell

775

0.09

197.70

154.45

197.70

Neutral

Sell

172

0.54

Under Valued

Transport
Stock

Target

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

BBA AVIATION

279.30

178.00

279.30

Sell

Sell

185

1.30

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.

420.75

309.50

425.00

Neutral

Buy

474

0.98

CLARKSON

1665.00

1150.00

1673.00

Neutral

Sell

1521

0.80

EASYJET

1188.00

481.20

1224.00

Neutral

Sell

699

0.77

FIRST GROUP

Target

Beta

223.80

175.70

260.50

Neutral

Strong Buy

590

0.91

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS

1000.00

535.00

1110.00

Neutral

Sell

415

0.77

GO-AHEAD GROUP

1588.00

1086.00

1588.00

Neutral

Buy

1942

0.90

NATIONAL EXPRESS

213.70

164.50

230.50

Neutral

Buy

264

1.35
1.41

NORTHGATE

335.00

159.60

350.00

Neutral

Strong Buy

634

STAGECOACH GROUP

315.40

230.40

319.60

Neutral

Buy

374

0.89

54.75

31.00

78.50

Sell

Sell

-45

0.90

WINCANTON

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock

Price

12M Lo

12M Hi

ST Rec

LT Rec

CENTRICA

386.90

306.30

393.10

Neutral

Buy

525

0.47

NATIONAL GRID

828.50

641.00

847.00

Neutral

Buy

931

0.50

PENNON GROUP

699.50

598.00

796.00

Neutral

Buy

862

0.59

SSE

1602.00

1294.00

1611.00

Neutral

Buy

1882

0.42

SEVERN TRENT

2050.00

1513.00

2090.00

Neutral

Sell

1692

0.35

765.00

617.50

765.00

Neutral

Neutral

751

0.50

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

Target

Beta

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 15 of 17

DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
IntelliSys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of IntelliSys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. IntelliSys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the IntelliSys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, IntelliSys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
of this report.
The Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys reports are not directed to any person in any
jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or
availability of the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys information may be prohibited.
Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis
Limited and/or IntelliSys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be
taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any
jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a
violation of relevant local securities laws. Recipients of Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or IntelliSys
reports outside the UK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in
the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any IntelliSys reports and/or the IntelliSys website, in whatever
form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use
pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the terms set forth.
IntelliSys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No IntelliSys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 16 of 17

may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited

www.intellisys.uk.com

20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994

Page 17 of 17

Anda mungkin juga menyukai