20 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
20 May 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
410.00
270.90
410.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
592
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
291.50
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
363
0.66
COBHAM
281.20
190.10
282.10
Neutral
Buy
311
0.82
MEGGITT
520.50
364.30
521.50
Neutral
Sell
449
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1178.00
780.75
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1169
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1343.00
979.50
1343.00
Neutral
Sell
1136
0.71
1775.00
1424.00
1775.00
Neutral
Sell
1670
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
305.80
173.60
305.80
Sell
Neutral
292
2.02
INCHCAPE
561.00
305.20
564.50
Neutral
Neutral
549
1.48
LOOKERS
107.00
56.50
108.25
Neutral
Neutral
117
1.23
24.25
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
326.80
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-793
1.94
758.60
503.20
758.60
Neutral
Buy
951
1.17
62.84
25.29
62.84
Sell
Sell
10
1.89
336.80
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-135
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1623.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3235
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
571.00
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
607
0.55
DIAGEO
2028.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1816
0.55
SABMILLER
3599.50
2348.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4087
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
324.10
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
653
1.23
CARCLO
361.75
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
395
0.73
2607.00
2094.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2130
1.04
245.00
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
349
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2636.00
2080.27
2649.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11856
1.45
VICTREX
1658.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1473
1.14
SYNTHOMER
201.20
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
207
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
192.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
375
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
93.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
227.20
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
993
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
346.30
114.00
346.30
Sell
Buy
467
1.58
BELLWAY
1359.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1921
1.15
2195.00
1180.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3378
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
201.00
115.50
201.00
Sell
Strong Buy
352
0.83
765.00
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
570
1.20
CARILLION
251.20
235.50
331.80
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
801
1.12
CLARKE (T)
55.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
269
0.82
280.75
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
551
0.57
1441.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
859
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
995.00
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1703
1.01
KELLER
948.00
348.25
948.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2124
1.26
1195.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3354
0.97
69.00
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
128.00
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
292
550.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3394
0.87
16.00
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
34
1.15
NORCROS
1272.00
496.69
1272.00
Sell
Buy
1455
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
232.40
107.30
232.40
Neutral
Buy
292
1.09
SIG
168.70
82.30
172.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
509
1.79
1.88
1.88
14.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
51
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
101.50
40.28
101.50
Neutral
Buy
131
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
1539.00
906.50
1543.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2616
2.01
WOLSELEY
3427.00
2121.32
3427.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5537
1.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1328.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
840
0.75
677.50
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
921
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
125.25
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
270
1.29
INVENSYS
400.80
198.90
400.80
Neutral
Sell
376
1.41
LAIRD
207.60
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
75
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1618.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1286
1.00
RENISHAW
1766.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2576
1.26
SPECTRIS
2124.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2426
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.14
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
176.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
447
1.58
XAAR
642.00
185.00
695.00
Neutral
Sell
256
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
87.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
106
1.28
BODYCOTE
549.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
531
1.60
CASTINGS
339.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
0.99
VESUVIUS
365.40
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
527
2.20
FENNER
356.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
574
1.42
HALMA
529.00
373.10
531.50
Neutral
Sell
408
0.75
460.50
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
349
1.37
1325.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1412
1.41
276.70
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
557
1.82
2834.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2243
1.00
269.60
177.00
269.60
Sell
Sell
220
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
41.63
35.40
96.69
Neutral
Sell
32
SPIRAX-SARCO
2801.00
1900.00
2822.00
Sell
Sell
2360
0.84
VITEC GROUP
593.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
625
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2399.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2109
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
406.20
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
702
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
286.50
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
181
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
378.20
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
200
0.57
TESCO
380.80
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
263
0.68
93.00
18.88
93.00
Sell
Sell
67
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1886.00
1167.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2152
0.62
CRANSWICK
1087.00
732.50
1087.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2126
0.43
DAIRY CREST
471.00
309.50
477.60
Neutral
Neutral
512
0.94
DEVRO
345.50
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
528
0.32
73.50
54.50
130.25
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
850.00
633.50
874.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1589
0.71
2845.00
2007.00
2852.00
Neutral
Neutral
2822
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.63
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
36
0.69
458.50
224.40
458.50
Neutral
Sell
394
0.54
1456.00
1000.00
1456.00
Neutral
Sell
1058
1.27
648.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
304
0.95
42.00
12.67
42.00
Neutral
Neutral
42
1.51
144.75
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.13
34.00
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
110
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
398.80
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Buy
545
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
869.00
606.50
869.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1636
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
60.00
38.00
65.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
97
1.25
KINGFISHER
330.60
254.10
330.60
Neutral
Buy
423
0.94
451.00
312.20
451.00
Neutral
Buy
563
0.65
56.25
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
64
1.04
349.75
161.50
362.00
Neutral
Buy
386
0.47
NEXT
4693.00
2899.00
4693.00
Sell
Sell
4025
0.67
TED BAKER
1420.00
840.00
1420.00
Sell
Sell
711
0.55
67.13
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
55
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.00
126.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
119
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
780.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
580
0.39
OPTOS
122.25
122.25
222.75
Buy
Buy
158
1.18
777.00
580.00
783.50
Neutral
Sell
702
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
730.00
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
711
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
344.75
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
305
0.92
82.25
55.25
90.00
Neutral
Buy
108
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1088.00
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
566
Beta
0.74
561.00
200.30
561.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1311
1.18
63.00
23.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
49
0.90
337.50
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
533
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
132.50
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
708
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
226.25
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-494
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1261.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1220
0.53
AMLIN
427.80
312.90
434.00
Neutral
Sell
67
0.46
BEAZLEY
231.00
132.50
233.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1315
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
543.00
399.00
543.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2067
0.30
HISCOX
577.00
385.08
577.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2620
0.48
906.50
659.00
914.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1743
0.31
115.90
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
949
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
500.00
345.00
500.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2959
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2391.00
1969.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4263
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
116.70
55.50
116.70
Neutral
Neutral
119
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
371.80
158.00
371.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
822
1.01
805.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
718
0.39
GREENE KING
788.50
474.30
788.50
Sell
Sell
696
0.93
LADBROKES
215.00
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
266
0.93
1945.00
1396.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1547
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
556.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
684
1.40
405.70
217.40
405.70
Sell
Sell
340
1.12
146.00
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
50
1.25
10.50
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
56
1.27
158.30
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
528
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
513.00
278.80
519.00
Neutral
Sell
341
WETHERSPOON (JD)
652.00
377.00
655.00
Neutral
Buy
786
0.69
WHITBREAD
2798.00
1786.00
2798.00
Sell
Sell
2104
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
445.00
245.70
447.00
Neutral
Sell
271
0.87
MARSTON'S
153.80
94.70
153.80
Neutral
Sell
24
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
340.30
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
755
1.25
CHESNARA
266.00
155.25
266.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
417
0.70
186.40
106.00
186.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
380
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
221.60
138.70
221.60
Neutral
Neutral
214
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1193.00
660.00
1193.00
Sell
Sell
1071
1.71
630.00
303.40
630.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1591
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
115.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-620
0.37
793.50
656.00
899.50
Buy
Strong Buy
1857
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
32.13
28.50
60.00
Buy
Strong Buy
166
1.03
766.00
363.50
766.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4361
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
998.00
672.50
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8154
1.00
INFORMA
526.50
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-80
1.53
ITE GROUP
294.00
180.00
294.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
257
1.45
ITV
130.30
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1356
1.54
17.88
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
832
1.27
1202.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
339
0.63
84.50
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2798
0.79
272.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
932
0.16
35.51
26.85
35.51
Neutral
Sell
-618
0.50
STV GROUP
137.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
284
0.79
ST.IVES
160.00
67.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
249
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
105.00
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-272
1.59
UBM
740.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1826
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
153.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1443
WPP
1157.00
743.00
1157.00
Neutral
Sell
-533
1.35
HIBU
0.41
0.26
3.22
Neutral
Strong Buy
863
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1570.00
1544.00
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1180
1.74
238.00
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
229
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
935.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
848
1.41
1928.50
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2855
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
338.75
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
974
#NA
LONMIN
274.10
240.84
421.26
Neutral
Buy
349
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4757.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2967
0.34
RIO TINTO
2899.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2313
1.50
3.38
13.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
0.89
832.50
1299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2078
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1273.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1231.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1265
0.80
BP
469.95
391.95
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1591
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
286.50
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-21
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
8.32
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14
0.82
873.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
457
1.31
1.36
58.25
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
308
381.00
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
292
1.43
2310.00
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9609
0.84
400.90
264.70
404.30
Neutral
Sell
253
0.53
1044.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
928
1.04
829.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
815
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
109.50
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
247
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
384.60
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
315
0.69
4718.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4758
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.42
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
1.01
3383.00
2591.00
3390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6672
0.47
BTG
356.60
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
171
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
719.00
461.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
739
0.25
1712.50
1317.50
1717.50
Neutral
Sell
1609
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.28
1.55
3.55
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2050.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1399
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
50.50
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-133
0.73
VERNALIS
22.50
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
416.10
274.50
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-620
1.18
BRITISH LAND
649.00
475.40
649.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1857
1.06
Target
Beta
36.50
22.75
36.50
Sell
Strong Buy
166
0.85
980.00
595.00
991.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4361
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2521.00
1708.00
2521.00
Sell
Strong Buy
8154
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
175.00
121.75
175.00
Neutral
Sell
-80
0.99
GRAINGER
155.60
83.10
155.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
257
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
593.50
367.80
595.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1356
1.10
HAMMERSON
550.50
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
832
1.19
HELICAL BAR
294.25
164.00
294.25
Neutral
Buy
339
0.77
990.00
704.00
990.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2798
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
359.60
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
932
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
146.00
127.00
146.00
Neutral
Sell
-618
0.73
414.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
284
0.42
329.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
249
0.35
77.75
32.50
77.75
Sell
Sell
-272
1.19
SAVILLS
599.50
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1826
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
664.00
492.00
664.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1443
1.05
SEGRO
301.50
209.40
301.50
Sell
Sell
-533
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
323.50
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
863
1.59
219.50
147.00
219.50
Neutral
Sell
-12
1.01
UNITE GROUP
379.90
180.25
387.50
Neutral
Sell
56
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1227
1.03
410.00
215.50
410.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1401
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
127.80
111.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
124
0.73
2289.00
1469.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1341
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
461.70
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1375
1.00
KOFAX
325.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
328
1.11
27.25
18.25
27.50
Sell
Sell
25
0.85
693.00
431.48
706.00
Neutral
Buy
1011
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
140.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
316
0.74
73.25
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-93
0.52
1949.00
1275.00
1970.00
Neutral
Neutral
2118
0.76
363.50
247.70
363.50
Neutral
Buy
425
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
470.00
237.30
476.40
Neutral
Sell
155
BREWIN DOLPHIN
214.80
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
125
0.73
10100.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Neutral
9673
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
391.50
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
212
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
140.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
140
0.69
1079.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
256
0.86
93.05
70.00
110.40
Neutral
Buy
103
0.89
3.32
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
178.30
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
68
1.44
ICAP
341.60
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
247
1.07
1.70
HELPHIRE GROUP
456.70
227.30
456.70
Neutral
Sell
175
INVESTEC
506.00
310.40
513.50
Neutral
Sell
140
1.56
1399.00
930.00
1411.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5955
1.15
131.50
63.25
131.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
478
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1535.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1139
0.75
SCHRODERS
2533.00
1166.00
2560.00
Neutral
Sell
1240
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1990.00
966.00
2000.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3890
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
219.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
299
0.92
AGGREKO
1747.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1333
1.05
AMEC
1044.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Buy
1161
1.04
636.00
212.20
636.00
Neutral
Sell
328
1.63
1136.00
827.00
1163.00
Neutral
Sell
682
0.48
580.25
324.00
580.25
Neutral
Buy
820
0.76
1323.00
990.00
1329.00
Neutral
Sell
1011
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
450.00
214.00
465.00
Neutral
Neutral
453
0.39
CAPITA
946.00
602.00
947.50
Neutral
Sell
539
0.51
56.00
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
69
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
892.00
616.00
892.00
Sell
Sell
621
BERENDSEN
768.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
1008
1.05
DE LA RUE
986.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
617
#NA
DIGNITY
1429.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Sell
830
0.22
DIPLOMA
583.00
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
499
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
269.80
195.20
269.80
Neutral
Buy
330
1.04
FILTRONA
741.00
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
357
1.13
G4S
249.10
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Buy
300
0.58
95.70
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
124
1.10
HOMESERVE
226.40
137.50
248.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
503
0.94
INTERSERVE
512.00
271.40
512.00
Neutral
Buy
703
1.28
3385.00
2456.00
3453.00
Neutral
Sell
1489
0.78
44.25
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
97
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
31.00
21.25
32.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
MENZIES (JOHN)
762.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1320
1.43
393.10
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
327
1.42
MITIE GROUP
273.40
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
351
0.55
92.50
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.33
PAYPOINT
897.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
709
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
226.70
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
294
1.33
REGUS
172.40
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
109
1.46
93.20
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
56
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
523.00
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
546
0.90
RICARDO
418.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
483
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
214.50
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
316
1.24
RPC GROUP
396.00
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Buy
549
0.78
RPS GROUP
229.70
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Buy
254
1.51
SERCO GROUP
635.00
509.50
637.50
Neutral
Sell
595
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
84.25
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
173
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
54.00
22.25
54.25
Neutral
Neutral
53
1.26
149.00
74.00
153.50
Neutral
Sell
52
0.63
54.75
39.50
59.00
Neutral
Buy
63
0.93
339.00
237.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
640
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
188
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
314.00
200.70
316.30
Neutral
Buy
352
44.30
27.28
44.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
86
0.70
662.00
390.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
604
0.53
Beta
0.91
87.25
67.00
87.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
136
1.24
1264.00
695.00
1264.00
Sell
Sell
775
0.09
197.70
154.45
197.70
Neutral
Sell
172
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
279.30
178.00
279.30
Sell
Sell
185
1.30
420.75
309.50
425.00
Neutral
Buy
474
0.98
CLARKSON
1665.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1521
0.80
EASYJET
1188.00
481.20
1224.00
Neutral
Sell
699
0.77
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
223.80
175.70
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
590
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1000.00
535.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
415
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1588.00
1086.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1942
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
213.70
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
264
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
335.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
634
STAGECOACH GROUP
315.40
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
374
0.89
54.75
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-45
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
386.90
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
525
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
828.50
641.00
847.00
Neutral
Buy
931
0.50
PENNON GROUP
699.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
862
0.59
SSE
1602.00
1294.00
1611.00
Neutral
Buy
1882
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2050.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1692
0.35
765.00
617.50
765.00
Neutral
Neutral
751
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
20 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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