Facult des Sciences sociales et politiques Dpartement de Science politique

POLI D 434: Foreign Policy Analysis

Country: Argentina Issue: Invasion of the Falkland/Malvinas Islands Period: 1982

Submitted by: Mattavelli Andrea, PINT4G1

Professor: Jean-Frdric Morin

Academic Year: 2011-2012 1

PART 1

Context and Factual background

The war between Argentina and the United Kingdom known as Falklands/Malvinas war of 1982 arose over the two main islands of West Falkland/Gran Malvina and East Falkland/Soledad and their dependencies, notably the islands South Georgia/Georgias del Sur and South Sandwich/Sandwich del Sur. The Falkland/Malvinas Islands lie in the South Atlantic Ocean, off the South American continent about 770 km north-east of Cape Horn and over 12.000 km from the UK. They form an archipelago of about 200 islands spread over an area of approximately 12.000 square km. South Georgia/Georgia del Sur is situated about 1.300 km east-south-east of the Falklands/Malvinas and the Sandwich Islands lie some 750 km east-south-east of South Georgia. 1 Argentines and the British sustain different versions regarding discovery of and sovereignty rights over the islands until 1833. In 1833 the British occupied the islands and expelled the Argentine population that was living there. Argentina never accepted the British occupation and from that moment onward has used every occasion to reassert its claim to sovereignty to, and demand the return of, what it considered to be its territory. 2 Argentina has always protested at both bilateral and multilateral level. In the 1960s in the context of the United Nations the Falklands/Malvinas issue was included in the discussions over decolonization. The U.N. Resolution 2065/XX of 1965 asks the two governments to resolve the dispute concerning the sovereignty over the Islands.3 Bilateral negotiations took place in 1966 and 1971 leading to an implementation of a system of support and communication between the Argentine mainland and the Falklands/Malvinas. On 14 December 1973 the U.N. General Assembly issued Resolution 3160, recalling its previous documents on the subject and expressing its concerns about the fact that after eight years from the adoption of Resolution 2065 no substantial progress had been made in the negotiations. 4 In 1976 a shooting incident between an Argentine destroyer and a British research ship led the two countries to recalling their ambassadors. Talks took place again between 1977 and 1979. Then the UK, after having asked the islanders' opinion, decided to freeze the dispute for 25 years. In February 1982 Argentine and British diplomats met again. Following the Argentine invasion of the Islands on 2 April 1982 the two countries went to war. The UK won the war on 14 June of the same year.

1 Goldbat J. & Millan V., The Flaklands/Malvinas Conflict - A Spur to Arms Builds-ups, Stockholm, sipri Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 1983, p.1 2 Ibid., p. 5 3 United Nations Resolution 2065/XX, http://daccess-ddsny.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/218/28/IMG/NR021828.pdf?OpenElement [consulted on 17/04/2012] 4 Laucirica J. O., Lessons from Failure: The Falklands/Malvinas Conflict, Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University, Summer/Fall 200, p. 82

The dependent variable analyzed in this paper is Argentine's invasion of the Falkland/Malvinas Islands on 2 April 1982. The invasion of the islands was the key part of the Operacin Rosario. Through this action the Argentine militaries took control over the Falklands/Malvinas by seizing the capital city of Stanley/Puerto Argentino and establishing an Argentine administration. The next step was to pull out most of the troops leaving only a garrison of 500 militaries on the islands. 5 The invasion was carried out during the first hours of 2 April and was meant to be as bloodless as possible and not affecting the life of the civil population. 6 Argentina deployed 1400 soldiers that overwhelmed the 80 British militaries that were at defense of the island. None of the British were killed, one Argentine died and two others remained wounded.7 The decision to invade the islands at that time was taken in response to the crisis over the island of South Georgia/Georgia del Sur which acted as a catalyst in the confrontation between Argentina and the UK. On 16 December a scrap metal dealer called Costantino Davidoff left Buenos Aires aboard of an Argentine Navy ice-breaker and landed five days later in Leith, on the island of South Georgia/Georgia del Sur. Davidoff had a regular contract with the British government that allowed him to operate on the Falklands/Malvinas but he did not respect the standard procedures that wanted him to stop and notify his passage at Grytviken. When the British found out that Davidoff had been on the island they went for an inspection and found a sign with the slogan Las Malvinas son Argentinas (The Falklands are Argentine). The British filed a formal protest in February in which they reaffirmed their sovereignty over the islands. 8 On 9 March Davidoff informed the British embassy that he was about to sail again to South Georgia, this time with a forty-one men team. Two days later they departed onboard the Bahia Buen Suceso and headed directly to Leith again without respecting the formalities in Grytviken. On 19 March a British ship found the Bahia Buen Suceso at anchor, about one-hundred men and an Argentine flag hoisted ashore.9 Two days later the ship had left but about forty men had remained on the island. The British informed the Argentine government that those men remaining on the island were considered as an occupying force and should be removed. On 21 March the Royal Navy's HMS Endurance left from Stanley/Puerto Argentino heading to Leith with the task of evacuating the Argentines. As response the Argentine government sent the naval auxiliary ARA Bahia Paradiso
5 Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., Signals of War - The Falklands Conflict of 1982, London, faber and faber, 1990, pp. 116, 142 6 Major Michael Norman, interview in Arthur, p. 9, c ited in Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 113 7 Carlos Bsser, Operacion Rosario, cited in Gamba-Stonehouse V., The Falklands/Malvinas War: A Model for North-South Crisis Prevention, Winchester, Alen & Unwin, 1987, p. 55 8 Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 43 9 Ibid., p. 48

with fourteen marines aboard to protect the workers. 10 The decision to invade the Falklands/Malvinas was taken on Friday 26 March 1982 by the new military junta that seized power in Argentina on 8 December 1981. Leading the junta was the commander of the Army, General Leopoldo Galtieri who was joined by the heads of the Navy and Air Force, Admiral Jorge Anaya and General Lami Dozo. 11

PART 2

The decision to invade: analysis according to the Prospect Theory

Prospect theory is a descriptive model for analyzing decision-making under condition of risk. The theory was first developed by two cognitive psychologists, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) 12 who originally applied it to behavioral economics. According to prospect theory individuals make choices in a logic of relative utility. Decisions are taken considering a reference point which represents the decision-maker's status quo. Hence decisions are reference dependent.13 Individuals evaluate outcomes of their decisions asymmetrically depending on whether they are considered as gains or as losses. Because individuals tend to overvalue losses relative to comparable gains, decisions are taken following a loss averse behavior. As consequence of loss aversion, decision-makers facing a situation of loss in respect to the reference point are inclined to risky behavior in order to recover the loss and return to the original status quo. Loss aversion introduces a bias that favors the retention of the status quo over other options.14 This effect of the reference position is known as status quo bias. 15 Thus individuals finding themselves in the domain of losses tend to a risk-acceptant behavior. Conversely, individuals tend to risk-averse behavior when they find themselves in the domain of gains. Individuals tend to value what they have more than comparable things they do not have, 16 this is known as endowment effect.17 Therefore decision-makers are hardly likely to risk something they posses for something they could obtain. Tversky and Kahneman (1986) 18 also showed that
10 Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 64 11 Freedman L., Official History of the Falklands Campaign: v. 2 - The 1982 Falklands War and Its Aftermath, London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2005, p.153. 12 Kahneman D. & Tversky A. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, Mar., 1979 13 Tversky A. & Kahneman D., Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 4, Nov., 1991, p. 1039 14 Tversky A. & Kahneman D., 1991, op. cit., p. 1042 15 Samuelson & Zeckhouser [1988], cited in Tversky A. & Kahneman D., 1991, op. cit., p. 1042 16 Levy J. S., Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science, Kluwer Academic Publishers, No 135, 2003, p. 216 17 Thaler 1980, cited in Levy J. S., op. cit., p. 216 18 Tversky A. & Kahneman D., Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions, The Journal of Business, Vol. 59, No. 4, Part 2: The Behavioral Foundations of Economic Theory, Oct., 1986, pp. S251-S278.

individuals overweight outcomes that are certain, this is known as certainty effect. 19 Gains, contrary to losses, are quickly included by individuals in their status quo causing a renormalization of the reference point.20 This effect is known as instant endowment effect. 21 A change of reference point causes a change in preference of choice, this effect is defined as preference reversal. Thus central to prospect theory is how decision-makers frame the reference point. The frame that a decision-maker adopts is controlled partly by the formulation of the problem and partly by the norms, habits, and personal characteristics of the decision-maker. 22 Kahneman and Tversky distinguish two phases in the choice process. In the editing phase the actor identifies the reference point, the available options, the possible outcomes and the value and probability of each. In the evaluation phase the actor combines the values of possible outcomes with their weighted probabilities to determine the preferred prospect or choice. . 23

The junta as unitary actor In this part of the paper Prospect Theory is applied in order to explain the decision taken by the Argentine government of carrying out a military invasion over the Falkland/Malvinas Islands on 2 April 1982. The theory is designed to explain the behavior of a single agent decision-maker. At the time of the invasion Argentina was ruled by a military junta consisting of three people: the commander of the Army General Leopoldo Gualtieri, the head of the Navy Admiral Jorge Anaya, and the head of the Air Force General Lami Dozo. In the following analysis it is assumed that the junta acted as a unitary actor as it is reported that during the crisis over South Georgia the three chiefs worked very closely and in general agreement with each other, furthermore the final decision on the military intervention was taken even in secrecy of the Foreign Minister24 Costa Mndez who had followed all last negotiations on the case. Central to the analysis of the decision process that led to the invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas is the framing of the reference point around which the decision has been taken. In this case evaluative framing25 occurred. Argentina's reference point concerning the Islands was the
19 20 21 22 Tversky A. & Kahneman D., 1986, op. cit., p. S266 Levy J. S., op. cit., p. 218 Kahneman et al, 1990, cited in Levy, Levy J. S., op. cit., p. 218 Tversky A. & Kahneman D., The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice, Science, New Series, Vol. 211, No. 4481, Jan. 30, 1981, p. 453 23 Kahneman D. & Tversky A., 1979, op. cit., cited in Levy J. S., Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict , International Political Science Review / Revue internationale de science politique, Vol. 17, No. 2, Crisis, Conflict and War. Crise, conflit et guerre, Apr., 1996, p. 186 24 Perkins, Operation Paraquat: The Battle for South Georgia, cited in Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 67 25 Mintz A.& Redd S. B., Framing Effects in International Relations, Synthese, Vol. 135, No. 2, Decision Theory,

territorial status quo of 1833 which constitutes the core independent variable. Therefore Argentine decision-makers perceived themselves as being in the domain of losses and, as consequence, acted under the influences of the status quo bias and showed a risk-seeking behavior. The reasons why Argentina opted for a military intervention can be found in the junta's perception of the situation and therefore in how possible solutions were evaluated. Jervis 26 furnishes explanations of how decision-makers perceive the world by illustrating how they learn from history and how domestic politics and individual training have influence on their decisions. As previous international events provide the statesman with a range of imaginable situations and allow him to detect patterns and casual links that can help him understand his world, 27the junta could take into account at least two antecedents in which the UK gave up the control over colonial territories. Comparable events occurred over the Suez Canal in 195628 and in Rhodesia in 1981.29 Thus the military option was evaluated to likely result in a success. Looking at the past another element was clear to the junta, diplomatic efforts never achieved any considerable result regarding the question of sovereignty. Thus resolving the current crisis through diplomacy was considered to be rather likely to fail. Another cause that needs to be taken into account is the fact that since the militaries sized the power in 1976 the extensive use of force in order to repress any challenge or threat to the regime became a regular domestic practice. The framework within which the Argentine decisionmakers looked at the international situation was therefore influenced by the domestic practice.30 The nature of the regime, military, was also a component that was favorable to the solution of a crisis through a military option. As a person's perceptual dispositions are influenced by his tasks and training31 it is plausible to estimate that the Argentine junta, composed by three high rank militaries, viewed a military invasion as the best possible solution. Crucial external intervening variables were the geographical position of the islands and the small number of troops protecting them. The fact that the islands lie at a great distance from the British coast made clear that an invasion carried out through the deployment of a considerable number of men and means would be successful. Therefore certainty effect occurred and the junta overweighted the invasion option. Moreover the Argentines believed that the British had already sent military reinforcement to the islands; this made the situation extremely urgent in the eyes of the junta that
May, 2003, p. 195 26 Jervis R., Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1976, pp. 217, 283, 286 and Jervis R., Hypotheses on Misperception, World Politics, Vol. 20, No. 3, Apr., 1968, p. 470 27 Jervis R., 1976, op. cit., p. 217 28 Arquilla J. & Moyano R. M., The Origins of the South Atlantic War, Journal of Latin American Studies, Vol. 33, No. 4, Nov., 2001, p. 742 29 Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 10 30 Jervis R., 1976, op. cit., p. 283 31 Ibid., p. 286

considered the immediate invasion the only way to prove its strength and eventually force Britain to engage in substantive negotiation on sovereignty, and to ensure that the United Nations and the United States took the issue seriously and helped bring the negotiations to a successful conclusion.32

PART 3

The decision to invade: analysis according to the Poliheuristic Theory

Poliheuristic theory is a model to analyze decision-making that takes into account both cognitive and rational theories. Poliheuristic theory is described by Mintz and Geva in 1997 33 and postulates a decision-making process segmented in two stages. In the first stage the decision-maker applies cognitive shortcuts to the problem in order to identify the possible solutions to it. This corresponds to the cognitive approach. In the second stage the decision-maker analyses the possible solutions taking into account each one's costs and benefits. This corresponds to the rational choice approach. Therefore Poliheuristic Theory is a model that describes both how decision-makers make decisions and how they choose within the possible alternatives. 34 In the first stage the decision-maker uses heuristics (cognitive shortcuts) following a noncompensatory and nonholistic principle in order to identify and organize the foreign policy options into separate dimensions. Such dimensions, generally are diplomatic, military, economic, and political. 35 By simplifying complex foreign policy decisions through cognitive shortcuts, the decision-maker focuses on dimensions of decision. The nonholistic principle implies that the decision-maker does not take into account all the possible choices at his/her disposal but focuses on a very restrictive set of alternatives and dimensions. 36 The noncompensatory principle implies that once the dimension which is essential for the decisionmaker is identified any option that is considered to be unacceptable on such dimension will not be chosen, even if it scores high (it compensates) on an other one. As policy makers are political actors whose self-interest in political survival is paramount 37 the effects of a policy on domestic politics are central to the decision process. Therefore the political dimension is not compensable and substitution effect does not exist between this dimension and the others.
32 Freedman L. & Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 68 33 Geva N. & Mintz A. The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decisionmaking, pp. 81-102 in Geva N. & Mintz A., Decision-making on War and Peace - The Cognitive-Rational Debate , Boulder, Lynne Rienner Publisher, 1997 34 Ibid., p. 81 35 Ibid., p. 91 36 Mintz A., The Decision to Attack Iraq: A Noncompensatory Theory of Decision Making, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 37, No. 4, Dec., 1993, p. 598 37 Mintz A., How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A Poliheuristic Perspective, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48 No. 1, 2004, p. 7

In the second stage the decision-maker selects in an analytical way the preferred option among the remaining restricted range of alternatives, choosing the one which allows higher benefits and lower costs/risks. Considering that noncompensatory political constraints in nondemocratic societies are different from those imposed on democratic leaders38 the noncompensatory political loss aversion can be operationalized in several ways, including: potential collapse of the regime; threat to power, dignity, honor or legitimacy of a leader; demonstrations, riots and so forth. 39 When the crisis over the South Georgia Islands occurred the Argentine junta had to chose between firmly reaffirming its sovereignty claims over the Falklands/Malvinas or preserving good relationships with an important economic partner. Because the Argentine government created high expectations in the population regarding the reacquisition of the islands by Argentina, the junta did not have other choice than to act resolutely. The Falklands/Malvinas issue was an argument that was a fundamental part of the so called proceso that was launched in 1976 by the first military junta, which aim it was to secure Argentina's national borders by resolving issues concerning them. Moreover, in the period immediately preceding the invasion, right after the last round of talks were held in New York on 26-27 February, the main Argentine newspapers reported that the Argentine Ministry of Foreign Affaires took the possibility of invading the islands in consideration. 40 Therefore, given the already strong popular aversion to the government, and the recent dispute with Chile over the Beagle Channel that saw Chile as the winner, a weak response to the problem would have led to increasing riots and demonstrations, and ultimately threatened the survival of the regime. As it always proved to be unsuccessful, the option of resolving the dispute through diplomacy was not even taken into consideration. The diplomatic way never improved the Argentine rights over the Falklands/Malvinas neither resulted in favor of Argentina in the dispute over the Beagle Channel's islands. On the economic and strategic dimension Argentina had the option of cutting the communications between the mainland and the islands, making them even more isolated. This option was risky and probably ineffective because in order to connect the islands to the mainland the British could have asked Chile for support with which the British already had good relations.41 The result would have been to strengthen the alliance between two enemies, situated close to Argentine borders. The military option was deemed to be the best way to force the UK to reconsider Argentine claims of sovereignty. Moreover the junta had the perception that the British government did not have a
38 Ibid., p. 5 39 Ibid., p. 9 40 Makin G. A., Argentine Approaches to the Falklands/Malvinas: Was the Resort to Violence Foreseeable?, International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), Vol. 59, No. 3, Summer, 1983, pp. 400, 401 41 Gamba-Stonehouse V., op. cit., p. 104

great interest in the islands and estimated that the British would not undertake such a long navigation to directly re-seize them. Therefore the possibility of retaliation was not seriously taken into consideration. Given the good international relations that Argentina had, the invasion was expected to be supported by the major world powers. The junta considered that any proposition forwarded by the British in the context of the United Nation would have been obstructed by the USSR.42 Moreover, the junta expected the USA to remain neutral43 or to stand on the Argentine side given the fact that the junta was an ally in the fight against communism and actively supported the USA in their operations in Central America. The costs of an invasion were considered to be very low given the fact that the islands lie right in front of the Argentine coast and far away from the UK and that the number of British troops protecting the islands was small. Contrary, the benefits were considered to be very significant. A successful operation would have had great positive impact both domestically and internationally. Domestically, the junta would have gained legitimacy to the Argentine people. Internationally, winning a confrontation with one of the world's most important players would have meant for Argentina to become the leading country in the South American region and rise to be considered a first level global player.

PART 4

Considerations

Prospect theory demonstrates that decision-makers' individual perceptions and predispositions are the key elements for understanding how a certain choice is made. Nonetheless the theory also demonstrates how these individual factors are influenced by the surrounding environment. Therefore according to Prospect Theory the context in which decisions are taken is determinant on the decision-maker and consequently on the final outcome. What most importantly influences the decision-maker's perception of a problem is the domestic environment. In this case study it is evident that the reference point which included the Falklands/Malvinas as part of the Argentine state was determined by internal dynamics. A good example for such internal dynamics is represented by the text books used in Argentine schools that for generations fostered the belief that Argentina should have the sovereignty over the Falklands/Malvinas. 44 Such belief was rooted in all ranks of the Argentine society, including the militaries where the junta came from. Consequently, the
42 Forlati L. & Leita F., Crisi Falkland-Malvinas e Organizzazione Internazionale, Review by Teson F. R., The American Journal of International Law, Vol. 81, No. 2, Apr., 1987, p. 558 43 Ibid. 44 Escude C., Argentine Territorial Nationalism, Journal of Latin American Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, May, 1988, pp. 139-165

Argentines have always perceived themselves to be in the domain of loss. The external elements intervene at a later stage and determine how risky a certain choice is perceived to be as well as the likelihood of its positive or negative outcome. Poliheuristic Theory focuses on dimensions of action and on the noncompensatory principle. This is helpful in understanding the logic of decision followed by the decision-maker but such principles seem to be not universally applicable. In fact Mintz 45 himself affirms that leaders of democratic countries face different constraints compared to those faced by leaders of non democratic societies; but he is unclear about whether Poliheuristic Theory takes into account institutional elements that can make the political dimension not the one which is the paramount even in democratic societies. For example, it is arguable that a US president at his/her second mandate can make decisions that score low on the political dimension as the US political system does not allow a third re-election. Referring to the case discussed in this paper it was chosen to apply the theory as Mintz proposed it because documentation exists that on the specific Falklands/Malvinas issue the junta could not have take decisions contrary to the public opinion. Nonetheless it could be argued that a highly repressive regime, such as the Argentine was, did not need to satisfy the people's requests. 46 In response to this critic Kinne's contribution is helpful.47 According to Kinne in presence of a military autocratic regime, such as the junta led by Gualtieri, the foreign policy choice must satisfy the group of militaries the leaders come from. In fact several military juntas came into power in Argentina between 1976 and 1982. If the crisis with the British was not solved in the right way according to the militaries it was probable that a new junta would be put in charge. Therefore it is evident that, even applying the same theory, it is possible to come to different explanations for a foreign policy action. The final explanation depends on the information at disposal. Substantial and reliable sources of information are thus fundamental for understanding foreign policy. Prospect and Poliheuristic theories are consistent with each other. Prospect Theory focuses on how decision-makers frame situations and Poliheuristic Theory goes one step further introducing a rational evaluation of the possible choices. Because the first stage of Poliheuristic theory corresponds to a cognitive approach, Prospect Theory is the base on which the former is built on. What makes Poliheuristic Theory more nuanced is the categorization of dimensions of choice. Poliheuristic Theory does not explicitly frame situations in terms of gains and losses as Prospect
45 Mintz A., 2004, op. cit., p. 5 46 Arquilla J. & Moyano R. M., op.cit., p. 739 47 Kinne B. J., Decision Making in Autocratic Regimes: A Poliheuristic Perspective, International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 6, 2005, pp. 114-128

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Theory does. Nevertheless, considering the consistence between the two, it is possible to say that decision-makers act in a not fully rational logic of relative utility in the first moment when facing a problem. They need to decide which kind of action needs to be taken and then act as fully rational agents when it comes to deciding how the chosen action is to be carried out. What is clear from the study of foreign policy is that the available information is determinant in the conduction of the analysis. Such information is easier available when foreign policy of democracies is studied. In fact, the type of regime strongly influences the production and the diffusion of information and it is clear that the level of transparency is higher in democracies than in other types of regimes. Furthermore the institutional structure of a democracy is more favorable to the foreign policy analysis because the organization of a state in a plurality of organs allow a more extensive production of information that represent different perspectives. In contrast, in autocracies the information is not transparent and the power is concentrated, hence the production and the availability of information are limited and homogeneous. Therefore the study of a foreign policy of a democracy is more likely to be accurate and objective as different sources of information can be cross-checked. In contrast, the study of an autocracy's act of foreign policy, especially when it is conducted a considerably long time after the event, it is likely to result in being influenced by those who collected the information and presented them in a way according to their personal interests and views. This would explain the existence of vast literature that interprets the invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas as a diversionary action. The diversity of availability of information, type of regime and institutional structure of countries result in the fact that not all models of decisionmaking processes are suitable for studying any act of foreign policy.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books FREEDMAN, Lawrence & GAMBA-STONEHOUSE, Virginia, Signals of War - The Falklands Conflict of 1982, London, faber and faber, 1990 FREEDMAN, Lawrence, Official History of the Falklands Campaign: v. 2 - The 1982 Falklands War and Its Aftermath, London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2005 GAMBA-STONEHOUSE, Virginia, The Falklands/Malvinas War: A Model for North-South Crisis Prevention, Winchester, Alen & Unwin, 1987 GOLDBAT, Jozef & MILLAN, Victor, The Flaklands/Malvinas Conflict - A Spur to Arms Buildsups, Stockholm, sipri Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 1983 JERVIS, Robert, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1976 Articles ARQUILLA, John & MOYANO, Rasmussen, Mara, The Origins of the South Atlantic War, Journal of Latin American Studies, Vol. 33, No. 4, Nov., 2001, pp. 739-775 ESCUDE, Carlos, Argentine Territorial Nationalism, Journal of Latin American Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, May, 1988, pp. 139-165 FORLATI, Laura & LEITA, Francisco, Crisi Falkland-Malvinas e Organizzazione Internazionale, Review by TESON, Fernando R., The American Journal of International Law , Vol. 81, No. 2, Apr., 1987, pp. 556-562 GEVA, Nehemia & MINTZ, Alex, The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decisionmaking, pp. 81-102 in GEVA, Nehemia & MINTZ, Alex, Decision-making on War and Peace - The Cognitive-Rational Debate , Boulder, Lynne Rienner Publisher, 1997 JERVIS, Robert, Hypotheses on Misperception, World Politics, Vol. 20, No. 3, Apr., 1968, pp. 454-479 KAHNEMAN, Daniel & TVERSKY, Amos, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, Mar., 1979, pp. 263-292 KINNE, Brandon J., Decision Making in Autocratic Regimes: A Poliheuristic Perspective, International Studies Perspectives , Vol. 6, 2005, pp. 114-128 LAUCIRICA, Jorge O., Lessons from Failure: The Falklands/Malvinas Conflict, Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations , Seton Hall University, Summer/Fall 200 12

LEVY, Jack S., Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict , International Political Science Review / Revue internationale de science politique, Vol. 17, No. 2, Crisis, Conflict and War. Crise, conflit et guerre, Apr., 1996, pp. 179-195 LEVY, Jack S., Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science, Kluwer Academic Publishers, No 135, 2003, pp. 215241 MAKIN, Guillermo A., Argentine Approaches to the Falklands/Malvinas: Was the Resort to Violence Foreseeable?, International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-) , Vol. 59, No. 3, Summer, 1983, pp. 391-403 MINTZ, Alex, The Decision to Attack Iraq: A Noncompensatory Theory of Decision Making, The Journal of Conflict Resolution , Vol. 37, No. 4, Dec., 1993, pp. 595-618 MINTZ, Alex & REDD, Steven B., Framing Effects in International Relations, Synthese, Vol. 135, No. 2, Decision Theory, May, 2003, pp. 193-213 MINTZ, Alex, How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A Poliheuristic Perspective, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48 No. 1, 2004, pp. 3-13 TVERSKY, Amos & KAHNEMAN, The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice, Science, New Series, Vol. 211, No. 4481, Jan. 30, 1981, pp. 453-458 TVERSKY, Amos & KAHNEMAN, Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions, The Journal of Business, Vol. 59, No. 4, Part 2: The Behavioral Foundations of Economic Theory, Oct., 1986, pp. S251-S278. TVERSKY, Amos & KAHNEMAN, Daniel, Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A ReferenceDependent Model, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 4, Nov., 1991, pp. 10391061 Others United Nations Resolution 2065/XX, 16 December, 1965, [http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/20/ares20.htm consulted on 11/05/2012]

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