21 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 May 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
413.00
270.90
413.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
598
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
293.20
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
365
0.66
COBHAM
280.70
190.10
282.10
Neutral
Buy
314
0.82
MEGGITT
523.50
364.30
523.50
Neutral
Sell
452
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1197.00
780.75
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1185
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1352.00
979.50
1352.00
Neutral
Sell
1149
0.71
1827.00
1424.00
1827.00
Neutral
Sell
1689
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
309.30
173.60
309.30
Sell
Neutral
295
2.02
INCHCAPE
565.50
305.20
565.50
Neutral
Neutral
553
1.48
LOOKERS
106.50
56.50
108.25
Neutral
Buy
117
1.23
25.00
13.50
25.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
38
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
326.20
150.55
327.35
Neutral
Sell
-788
1.94
769.90
503.20
769.90
Neutral
Buy
957
1.17
62.20
25.29
62.84
Sell
Sell
10
1.89
351.90
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-127
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1626.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3246
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
570.00
348.00
572.00
Neutral
Neutral
608
0.55
DIAGEO
2045.00
1477.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1823
0.55
SABMILLER
3586.00
2348.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4087
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
330.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
658
1.23
CARCLO
379.00
345.75
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
396
0.73
2603.00
2125.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2138
1.04
245.00
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
351
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2650.00
2080.27
2650.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11819
1.45
VICTREX
1673.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1481
1.14
SYNTHOMER
198.00
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
211
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
194.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
378
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
94.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
255
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
226.30
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
994
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
342.50
114.00
346.30
Sell
Buy
470
1.58
BELLWAY
1362.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1924
1.15
2203.00
1180.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3396
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
196.00
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
354
0.83
778.00
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
572
1.20
CARILLION
254.20
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
800
1.12
CLARKE (T)
53.25
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
268
0.82
269.50
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
550
0.57
1456.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
862
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
986.50
579.00
995.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1702
1.01
KELLER
975.00
348.25
975.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2134
1.26
1200.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3350
0.97
70.00
49.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
218
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
128.00
76.00
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
293
551.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3399
0.87
15.88
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
34
1.15
NORCROS
1245.00
496.69
1272.00
Sell
Buy
1458
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
231.90
107.30
232.40
Neutral
Buy
293
1.09
SIG
171.50
82.30
172.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
513
1.79
1.88
1.88
14.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
51
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
103.00
40.28
103.00
Neutral
Buy
131
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
1542.00
906.50
1543.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2620
2.01
WOLSELEY
3473.00
2121.32
3473.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5573
1.46
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1352.00
935.00
1364.00
Neutral
Sell
845
0.75
677.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
926
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
126.50
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
1.29
INVENSYS
402.70
198.90
402.70
Neutral
Sell
379
1.41
LAIRD
208.60
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
76
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1630.00
1096.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1294
1.00
RENISHAW
1761.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2589
1.26
SPECTRIS
2112.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2441
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.14
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
176.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
450
1.58
XAAR
649.00
185.00
695.00
Neutral
Sell
257
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
86.50
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
106
1.28
BODYCOTE
550.50
310.30
556.50
Neutral
Neutral
532
1.60
CASTINGS
339.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
726
0.99
VESUVIUS
366.60
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
528
2.20
FENNER
357.90
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
576
1.42
HALMA
529.50
374.00
531.50
Neutral
Sell
410
0.75
462.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
350
1.37
1342.00
776.00
1347.00
Neutral
Neutral
1419
1.41
285.00
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
560
1.82
2837.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2255
1.00
269.50
177.00
269.60
Neutral
Sell
221
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
41.75
35.40
96.69
Neutral
Sell
32
SPIRAX-SARCO
2811.00
1900.00
2822.00
Sell
Sell
2368
0.84
VITEC GROUP
590.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
627
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2386.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2116
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
410.70
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
717
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
289.30
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
178
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
377.20
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
195
0.57
TESCO
383.10
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
262
0.68
THORNTONS
100.50
18.88
100.50
Sell
Sell
72
0.84
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1926.00
1167.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2168
0.62
CRANSWICK
1115.00
732.50
1115.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2142
0.43
DAIRY CREST
472.00
311.10
477.60
Neutral
Neutral
517
0.94
DEVRO
347.20
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
531
0.32
73.75
54.50
130.25
Neutral
Sell
-182
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
855.00
633.50
874.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1600
0.71
2853.00
2007.00
2853.00
Neutral
Neutral
2845
0.58
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.38
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
36
0.69
465.60
224.40
465.60
Sell
Sell
394
0.54
1463.00
1000.00
1463.00
Neutral
Sell
1059
1.27
662.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
303
0.95
42.20
12.67
42.20
Neutral
Neutral
42
1.51
140.50
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.13
32.00
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
110
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
401.70
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Buy
545
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
865.00
606.50
869.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1635
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
66.50
38.00
66.50
Neutral
Buy
98
1.25
KINGFISHER
330.50
254.10
330.60
Neutral
Buy
423
0.94
440.50
312.20
451.00
Neutral
Buy
563
0.65
56.25
42.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
64
1.04
348.00
161.50
362.00
Neutral
Buy
385
0.47
NEXT
4675.00
2930.00
4693.00
Neutral
Sell
4020
0.67
TED BAKER
1425.00
840.00
1425.00
Sell
Sell
712
0.55
67.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
55
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.00
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
118
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
782.50
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
581
0.39
OPTOS
127.25
122.25
222.75
Neutral
Buy
160
1.18
788.50
581.50
788.50
Neutral
Sell
711
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
725.00
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
706
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
337.75
263.00
355.00
Neutral
Sell
299
0.92
80.50
55.25
90.00
Neutral
Buy
105
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1096.00
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
569
Beta
0.74
562.50
200.30
562.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1312
1.18
63.00
24.25
83.25
Neutral
Sell
49
0.90
336.90
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
536
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
133.70
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
712
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
222.00
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-496
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1275.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1236
0.53
AMLIN
426.20
312.90
434.00
Neutral
Sell
65
0.46
BEAZLEY
237.60
132.50
237.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1296
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
532.50
399.00
543.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2038
0.30
HISCOX
576.00
385.08
577.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2583
0.48
902.50
659.00
914.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1726
0.31
115.90
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
934
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
494.00
345.00
500.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2907
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2410.00
1992.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4305
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
120.00
55.50
120.00
Neutral
Neutral
122
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
372.20
158.00
372.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
826
1.01
800.00
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
725
0.39
GREENE KING
784.50
474.30
788.50
Neutral
Sell
704
0.93
LADBROKES
214.20
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
269
0.93
1962.00
1401.63
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1565
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
556.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
690
1.40
406.60
217.40
406.60
Sell
Sell
344
1.12
143.30
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
47
1.25
10.75
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
58
1.27
163.00
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
533
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
531.00
278.80
531.00
Neutral
Sell
344
WETHERSPOON (JD)
661.50
379.90
661.50
Neutral
Buy
793
0.69
WHITBREAD
2837.00
1794.00
2837.00
Sell
Sell
2124
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
450.00
246.35
450.00
Neutral
Sell
273
0.87
MARSTON'S
153.00
94.70
153.80
Neutral
Sell
23
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
339.40
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
758
1.25
CHESNARA
270.00
155.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
417
0.70
185.60
106.00
186.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
380
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
216.80
138.70
221.60
Neutral
Neutral
213
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1180.00
660.00
1193.00
Neutral
Sell
1066
1.71
635.00
303.40
635.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1591
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
21 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
110.25
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-616
0.37
806.50
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1854
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
32.00
28.50
60.00
Buy
Strong Buy
165
1.03
765.00
363.50
766.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4368
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
998.00
672.50
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8156
1.00
INFORMA
528.50
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-77
1.53
ITE GROUP
298.90
180.00
298.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
260
1.45
ITV
130.70
69.45
132.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1354
1.54
18.00
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
832
1.27
1220.00
1115.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
340
0.63
84.50
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2800
0.79
272.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
935
0.16
35.51
26.85
35.51
Neutral
Sell
-614
0.50
STV GROUP
133.88
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
286
0.79
ST.IVES
161.00
67.50
161.00
Neutral
Sell
252
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
109.50
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-272
1.59
UBM
742.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1827
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
157.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1444
WPP
1165.00
743.00
1165.00
Neutral
Sell
-528
1.35
HIBU
0.43
0.26
3.16
Neutral
Strong Buy
862
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1553.00
1544.00
2215.00
Buy
Sell
1165
1.74
234.25
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
228
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
926.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
842
1.41
1925.00
1681.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2833
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
334.95
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
962
#NA
LONMIN
264.10
240.84
421.26
Neutral
Buy
342
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4696.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2948
0.34
RIO TINTO
2903.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2283
1.50
3.38
13.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
163
0.89
832.50
1299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2055
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1283.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1232.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1272
0.80
BP
472.55
393.90
475.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1599
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
287.20
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-22
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
8.40
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
15
0.82
887.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
460
1.31
1.36
59.25
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
309
379.10
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
294
1.43
2304.50
2039.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9657
0.84
401.80
264.70
404.30
Neutral
Sell
254
0.53
1054.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
933
1.04
830.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
820
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
109.75
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
385.30
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
316
0.69
4770.00
3300.00
4812.00
Neutral
Neutral
4809
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.42
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
1.01
3390.50
2591.00
3390.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6620
0.47
BTG
338.60
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
171
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
719.00
463.00
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
735
0.25
1721.50
1317.50
1721.50
Neutral
Sell
1595
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.33
1.55
3.40
Neutral
Sell
0.64
PHYTOPHARM
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2086.00
1727.00
2153.00
Neutral
Sell
1387
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
53.25
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-135
0.73
VERNALIS
22.25
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
418.00
274.50
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-616
1.18
BRITISH LAND
658.00
475.40
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1854
1.06
Target
Beta
37.00
22.75
37.00
Sell
Strong Buy
165
0.85
995.00
595.00
995.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4368
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2530.00
1728.00
2530.00
Sell
Strong Buy
8156
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
180.00
121.75
180.00
Neutral
Sell
-77
0.99
GRAINGER
156.30
83.10
156.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
260
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
598.00
367.80
598.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1354
1.10
HAMMERSON
554.00
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
832
1.19
HELICAL BAR
297.50
164.00
297.50
Neutral
Buy
340
0.77
994.00
704.00
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2800
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
357.90
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
935
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
149.50
127.00
149.50
Neutral
Sell
-614
0.73
402.50
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
286
0.42
332.00
312.00
364.50
Neutral
Sell
252
0.35
79.25
32.50
79.25
Sell
Sell
-272
1.19
SAVILLS
596.50
300.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1827
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
663.50
492.00
664.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1444
1.05
SEGRO
302.80
209.40
302.80
Sell
Sell
-528
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
321.00
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
862
1.59
219.50
147.00
219.50
Neutral
Sell
-9
1.01
UNITE GROUP
380.00
180.75
387.50
Neutral
Sell
55
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1227
1.03
408.90
215.50
410.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1402
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
127.70
111.25
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
126
0.73
2308.00
1481.00
2322.00
Neutral
Sell
1357
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
453.90
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1385
1.00
KOFAX
323.38
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
331
1.11
27.25
18.25
27.50
Sell
Sell
25
0.85
710.00
431.48
710.00
Neutral
Buy
1036
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
143.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
317
0.74
70.88
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-97
0.52
2004.00
1275.00
2004.00
Neutral
Neutral
2141
0.76
368.10
247.70
368.10
Neutral
Buy
431
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
471.70
237.30
476.40
Neutral
Sell
154
BREWIN DOLPHIN
209.70
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
125
0.73
9900.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Neutral
9602
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
395.00
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
211
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
140.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
139
0.69
1078.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
252
0.86
93.40
70.00
110.40
Neutral
Buy
103
0.89
3.40
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
179.10
90.55
179.60
Neutral
Sell
68
1.44
ICAP
343.80
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
246
1.07
HELPHIRE GROUP
460.50
227.30
460.50
Neutral
Sell
172
1.70
INVESTEC
490.80
312.00
513.50
Neutral
Sell
137
1.56
1426.00
930.00
1426.00
Neutral
Sell
-27660
1.15
131.90
63.25
131.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
479
1.32
1520.00
1151.00
1551.00
Neutral
Sell
1136
0.75
SCHRODERS
2532.00
1166.00
2560.00
Neutral
Sell
1234
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1987.00
966.00
2000.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3877
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
220.50
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
301
0.92
AGGREKO
1788.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1346
1.05
AMEC
1048.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Buy
1167
1.04
658.50
212.20
658.50
Sell
Sell
332
1.63
1145.00
830.00
1163.00
Neutral
Sell
687
0.48
575.00
324.00
580.25
Neutral
Buy
824
0.76
1336.00
993.50
1336.00
Neutral
Sell
1016
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
452.50
214.00
465.00
Neutral
Neutral
456
0.39
CAPITA
949.00
602.00
949.00
Neutral
Sell
543
0.51
55.50
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
70
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
898.00
620.50
898.00
Sell
Sell
625
BERENDSEN
775.00
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
1019
1.05
DE LA RUE
995.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
623
#NA
DIGNITY
1435.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Sell
835
0.22
DIPLOMA
583.50
417.00
627.50
Neutral
Sell
503
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
271.90
195.20
271.90
Neutral
Buy
332
1.04
FILTRONA
748.50
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
360
1.13
G4S
251.00
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Buy
303
0.58
95.35
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
125
1.10
HOMESERVE
227.00
137.50
248.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
507
0.94
INTERSERVE
513.50
271.40
513.50
Neutral
Buy
707
1.28
3327.00
2500.00
3453.00
Neutral
Sell
1500
0.78
45.38
26.50
45.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
98
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.38
21.25
32.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
MENZIES (JOHN)
760.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1322
1.43
393.40
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
329
1.42
MITIE GROUP
267.40
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
354
0.55
89.50
87.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
247
0.33
PAYPOINT
898.00
605.00
912.50
Neutral
Sell
714
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
226.00
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
296
1.33
REGUS
171.50
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
110
1.46
93.70
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
57
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
536.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
551
0.90
RICARDO
417.50
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
487
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
214.00
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
318
1.24
RPC GROUP
399.80
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Buy
553
0.78
RPS GROUP
228.90
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Buy
256
1.51
SERCO GROUP
637.00
509.50
637.50
Neutral
Sell
599
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
84.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
175
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
55.00
22.25
55.00
Sell
Neutral
54
1.26
162.25
74.00
162.25
Neutral
Sell
53
0.63
59.25
39.50
59.25
Neutral
Neutral
64
0.93
339.63
237.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
646
0.86
78.88
42.00
78.88
Sell
Strong Buy
188
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
21 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
322.20
200.70
322.20
Sell
Buy
359
43.95
27.28
44.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
86
0.70
666.00
394.90
749.00
Neutral
Sell
610
0.53
Beta
0.91
87.60
67.00
87.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
138
1.24
1285.00
695.00
1285.00
Sell
Sell
786
0.09
197.60
154.45
197.70
Neutral
Sell
174
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
281.70
178.00
281.70
Sell
Sell
Target
180
Beta
1.30
425.25
309.50
425.25
Neutral
Neutral
461
0.98
CLARKSON
1650.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1498
0.80
EASYJET
1235.00
481.20
1235.00
Neutral
Sell
685
0.77
FIRST GROUP
155.60
155.60
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
577
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
979.00
540.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
405
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1549.00
1086.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1896
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
216.00
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
257
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
334.50
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
629
STAGECOACH GROUP
315.30
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
371
0.89
55.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-43
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
393.10
306.30
393.10
Neutral
Buy
535
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
847.50
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
946
0.50
PENNON GROUP
719.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
878
0.59
SSE
1646.00
1294.00
1646.00
Neutral
Buy
1925
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2051.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1723
0.35
784.50
617.50
784.50
Neutral
Neutral
767
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
21 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
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IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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