Geography

Global Warming

MURTAZA NAQI HAIDER TALHA MALIK HAIDER IMAM

Topic: Global Warming

Introduction:
Global warming (also called the greenhouse effect) describes the gradual increase of the air temperature in the earths lower atmosphere. Global warming is the gradual temperature rise of the earths surface. In the past century, temperature on the earths surface increased 1.1 F and climate temperatures rose about 0.5F. The cause for this temperature increase is believed to be the work of human beings and their actions. The earths atmosphere is like the roof of a greenhouse; it allows the suns energy to enter, but prevents some of the energy from radiating back into space. The atmosphere absorbs much of the suns energy and controls the temperature of our planet. Without the greenhouse gases, the Earths surface temperature would be about 0F. The greenhouse effect refers to the fact that this blanket is getting thicker because we are increasing the concentration of gases in the atmosphere. As a consequence, more of the suns energy is being absorbed by the atmosphere and re-radiating back to Earth, thus increasing the temperature of our planet. It is believed that it was the industrial revolution that started the spiraling negative effect on the atmosphere. At the time, carbon dioxide increased by 30 percent, methane concentrations have doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations rose about 15 percent. All of these pollutants were the beginning of the greenhouse effect. The modern day culture of humans hasnt helped in reducing these pollutants. The fossil fuels we use to run our vehicles and factories make up about 98 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions, 24 percent of methane emission, and 18 percent of nitrous oxide emission. These pollutants have added to the greenhouse effect in that these gasses act as glass panels trapping the heat like a greenhouse. This effect has always been around with the natural gasses, but the pollutants have increased the temperature that gets trapped. In the past century the most recent fifteen years topped the charts with ten of those years having the warmest years on record. Other changes have been documented due to global warming as well. In the past century, sea levels raised four to eight inches while, 40 percent of the thickness of the artic ice packs has been lost. Humans have been affected by global warming as well. More heat waves and droughts have cause disputes on water distribution. The heat has also caused illness among people and allows for disease to multiply and spread. The gradual change in temperature from the average is best illustrated by figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Global Temperature Change from 1880 through the year 2000.

Causes of Global Warming:

The greenhouse effect that causes global warming is, for the most part, a natural occurrence; however, just as anything else that is overdone, there can be harmful effects. While there are numerous causes of global warming, the two main gases involved are carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor. They create insulation around the earth holding in the heat. This additional heat warms the earth causing ice caps to melt, and other weather phenomenon. Water Vapor the #1 greenhouse gas. This is a surprise to most people, because we keep hearing about CO2. Global warming is likely to cause more water to evaporate from the surface and more water to be absorbed by the warmer atmosphere. However, we dont really know what the consequences will be of an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Will the increase in water vapor increase temperatures (a positive feedback loop)? Or, will the increase in water vapor lead to more clouds to reflect incoming solar radiation, thus preventing it from reaching the surface? Carbon Dioxide the #2 greenhouse gas. CO2 is naturally released into the atmosphere as a result of respiration by living organisms, and by geological events such as volcanic eruptions. However, these processes have always gone on and are not the cause of the current level of global warming. What has changed recently is the production of CO 2 by humans through burning coal, oil, natural gas, and wood. CO2 is responsible for about 62% of human-made greenhouse gases. The increase in CO2 is unequivocal. The figure below shows the CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and represents the globally mixed concentration of CO2.

Other greenhouse gases: Methane (CH4) o an extremely effective absorber of radiation o lasts only about 10-12 years in the atmosphere o released as part of biological processes in low oxygen environments (e.g., swamps, rice paddies) o growing rice, raising cattle, using natural gas, and mining coal have caused an increase in methane from 1.52 ppmv in 1978 to the current concentration of about 1.77 ppmv; it has not risen much since around 1990 o Is responsible for about 19% of human-produced greenhouse gases Tropospheric Ozone (O3) o UV radiation and oxygen interact to form ozone in the stratosphere, forming the ozone layer o has increased due to emissions from automobiles, pollution from factories, and burning of vegetation. o concentrations have risen by around 30% since the pre-industrial era Nitrous Oxide (N2O) o produced by microbial processes in soil and water, fossil fuel burning, nylon production, nitric acid production, and car emissions o produced by interactions between microbes and nitrogenous fertilizers Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) o CFCs are produced exclusively by humans as refrigerants, aerosol propellants and cleaning solvents o destroy stratospheric ozone o because of regulations, levels of CFCs are now remaining level or declining

Our Planet Getting Warmer:

The annual mean global temperature anomalies over the period 1880-2001. The zero line represents the long term mean temperature from 1880-2001, and the red and blue bars are showing annual departures from that mean.

Global surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6C (plus or minus 0.2C) since the late 19th century. Global surface temperatures have increased by about 0.4F (0.2 to 0.3C) over the past 25 years. 2001 was second only to 1998 in terms of global temperature. The trend has been toward increasing temperatures at least since the beginning of the 20th century. Land temperatures have greater anomalies than the ocean, which is to be expected since land heats up and cools down faster than water global warming in not spatially uniform. Some areas (including parts of the southeastern U.S.) have cooled over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70N indirect indicators of warming such as borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth See: Changes in glacier length Arctic sea ice has decreased Sea-ice in the Antarctic

Where are the Greenhouse Gases Coming From?

In 1987, the base year for many CO2 reduction plans, 20.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide were pumped into the atmosphere. The industrial world, where only one-third of the population lives, produced 80% of that amount. The United States leads all countries in total and per capita CO2s.

Carbon dioxide emissions constitute over 90% of all anthropogenic emissions. Anthropogenic emissions are those caused by humans. Other gases worth noting include: CH4 (methane), CO (carbon monoxide), CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydro chlorofluorocarbons), O3 (ozone), and N2O (nitrous oxide) (Wheeling, 2003). While CO2 emissions are the primary source of the greenhouse warming effect, the other gases are measured according to their CO2 equivalent effect. Humans are impacting the CO2 level in the atmosphere at an alarming rate. Vehicles with the worst gas mileage are the biggest offenders. Another significant source of carbon release into the atmosphere is biomass burning. Biomass burning includes: deforestation, grass fires in savannas to prepare range land for cattle, disposing of agricultural wastes, fuel wood for heating and cooking, production and use of coal. Eighty-seven percent of these biomass emissions come from the tropics. The destruction of tropical forests emits hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. Methane (CH4) is another gas which affects global warming with only half the warming effect of CO2. Methane is produced from bovine flatulence, bacteria, which form in bogs, and from the production of fossil fuels. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is commonly known as laughing gas and is often used as an anesthetic in many dentist offices. The main source of N2O is oceans and rainforests. Man-made sources of nitrous oxide include nylon and nitric acid production, the use of agricultural fertilizers, cars with catalytic converters and the burning of organic matter . Nations with the largest industry, transportation and manufacturing emit the most harmful gases into our atmosphere. By acknowledging where these emissions occur, we can take action to reduce the use of factors known to be harmful to our environment.

Impacts of Global Warming:

Global warming is a major political and scientific topic at this time. According to many of the models used to predict the trends of global warming there is expected to be an increase in temperature from 1.4C to 5.8C by the year 2100. This would be an increase approximately equivalent to the change in temperature increase between the ice age and today. This type of global climate change would create extreme stress on the environment and would create difficulty in environmental adaptation. There is also some scientific concern that the change may not be a gradual increase in temperature but may be a large change increase in just a few years. This would simply enhance the inability of the environment to adapt to the change. The environmental damage would be catastrophic in both scope and impact. The environmental impact of global warming would then lead to additional issues creating large economic and social issues to be addressed. Along with the environmental damage that is expected there are also predictions as to how global warming would affect agricultural and in essence the worlds food supply. The increase in temperature is expected to lead to water supply shortages and requirements for increased irrigation which in turn increases the expense of raising the crop. The increase in temperature is expected to lead to increase decomposition rates of organic material leading to issues with soil fertility. There is also concern of changing weather patterns leading to increased storm destruction and possible problems with wind damage and air-borne disease (Hellil, 1995). Considering these issues along the possibility of increased yields that may occur due to the warmer temperatures it is extremely difficult to determine how global warming will affect the world supply and demand for food.

The economic impact of global warming is also of major concern. The cost of global warming is expected to reach $150bn a year in the next decade (Webber, 2002). In addition, when we consider governmental actions that have been taken to counter the effects of global warming, this number may be increased greatly. Consider for instance that has been proposed as international treaty on combating global warming. The cost of meeting the demands listed in this protocol could have devastating effects economically. The United States Energy Information Administrator says that the could drain more $340 billion a year out of the economy as well as increase gasoline prices by 65 cents a gallon, diesel prices by 88 cents a gallon, home heating oil 90 cents a gallon, would double electricity prices, and could cost 3.2 million American jobs. Now that we have considered the environmental and economic impacts discussed above, we can only imagine the societal impact global warming will create. With extreme environmental devastation and loss of biodiversity along with possible economic collapse, our societies will effectively cease to function. When people are having trouble obtaining food and/or meeting economic demands they will not be worried with societal concerns. Global warming will have some impact regardless of whether it is a true concern or is simply hyped by the scientists and media services. The fear of global warming may have as much an impact as global warming itself. The true impact of global warming will only be determined by waiting to see the actual results. The step by step Impacts are given below: Change in the Water Cycle. There have been many recent changes in the water cycle (e.g., evaporation and precipitation). However, the exact connection between global warming and these changes in not know. Overall, land precipitation for the globe has increased by about 2% since 1900. Precipitation is expected to increase over the 21st century, particularly at northern midhigh latitudes, though the trends may be more variable in the tropics. There has been a general increase in precipitation of about 0.5-1.0% per decade over land in northern mid-high latitudes (except in parts of eastern Russia). There has been a decrease of about -0.3% per decade in precipitation during the 20th century over land in sub-tropical latitudes. Northern Hemisphere annual snow cover extent has consistently remained below average since 1987, and has decreased by about 10% since 1966 (mostly due to a decrease in spring and summer snowfall over both the Eurasian and North American continents since the mid-1980s). Winter and autumn snow cover extent has shown no significant trend for the northern hemisphere over the same period. The general trend of increasing cloud amount over both land and ocean since the early 1980s seems to have reversed in the early 1990s, and total cloud amount over land and oceans now appears to be decreasing. More frequent droughts will deplete surface water that supplies cities in many regions. Fresh water reserves in some western states of the USA are now disappearing after many dry years. Winter snowfalls are already 40 to 70 percent lower than normal in some temperate regions. Climate change may aggravate these trends. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, up to 3 billion additional people will experience significant decreases in water resources by 2080.

More Extreme and Variable Climate. On a global scale there is little evidence of sustained trends in climate variability or extremes. However, on a regional scale, there is clear evidence of climate changes In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Nio, dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Other than these areas, little evidence is available of changes in drought frequency or intensity. In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (i.e., the mid-high northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in heavy and extreme precipitation events. Extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. It is not clear whether these trends are fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend. Tropical storm frequency and intensity show no significant long-term trend. Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in interannual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature variability in recent decades. There may be more frequent and more violent storms. Hurricanes and cyclones get their energy from the heat in sea water, and warmer oceans might expand storm regions. On the other hand, global warming might reduce the number of mid-latitude storms. Warming of the air will likely be greatest towards the poles. This may reduce the difference in air temperature between the poles and the equator, a primary cause of such storms. Change in Sea Level. Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1 to 2 mm/year over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. Projected increases from 1990-2100 are anywhere from 0.09 to 0.88 meters. A rise in 20 cm predicted by 2030 will affect coastal towns and cities, wetlands, and lowland. Decrease in Agricultural Productivity. Although some countries may enjoy increased agricultural productivity, overall a worsening of production inside the continents is predicted. Small changes in local and regional crop production are likely to affect global food supplies. The effects of global warming on agriculture are likely to increase as the worlds population continues to grow. Fertile delta and coastal regions will lose agricultural land. In Egypt, Bangladesh, India, and Chine, about 15% of farmable land will be flooded. Grain-producing areas, such as the Great Plains of the United States, may experience more frequent droughts and heat waves. In mid-latitude regions, agricultural zones may shift towards the poles by 200 to 300 km for every degree Celsius of warming. Irrigation will be difficult in central and southern Europe.

Long term drought already threatens water supplies in some European and North American cities. Wheat, corn, and rice yields may increase in temperate regions, and decline in tropical and subtropical regions.

Fisheries Impact. Many fish species are very sensitive to changes in temperature; thus global warming can be expected to severely impact fish populations and fishery industries throughout the word. For example, warmer water temperatures off of British Columbia are expected to increase migration of salmon northward, leading to a decrease in the British Columbia salmon population. Increase in Health Problems. An increase in temperature can be expected to increase health problems of urban dwellers. In many cities, an increase in temperature means an increase in pollution and associated problems. Malaria transmission is likely to increase worldwide; people in central Asia, North America, and northern Europe will be at greater risk as the distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector shifts. However, transmission will be limited to a shorter time period. Reductions in crop yields due to global warming may increase the number of malnourished people; the Hadley Centre model shows an increase of 70-125 million people at risk of malnourishment by the end of the century.

Salinization Problems. A rise in sea level may cause salt water intrusion into aquifers and streams. A 30 cm rise in sea level would cause salt water to flow 5-15 km further inland. Erosion Problems. A rise in sea level will cause erosion of coastal areas. In the United States, 20,000 km of coast are likely to be affected. Forest Impacts. In general, trees wont be able to adapt quickly to global warming and there will be a significant shift in forest types as global ecozones change. Those species with limited distributions will be most affected. In the mountains of Europe, over half the trees are already diseased, and climate change is hastening the death of forests. High temperatures will increase population levels of many insect pests and pathogens. The composition of tropical and boreal forests are likely to change because of changes in rainfall patterns, pest populations, and fires. As forests change, uptake of carbon by trees may decrease. Demographic Changes. As climate changes, there will be major shifts in the distributions of people throughout the world as people look to new sources of water, land, and food. There is likely to be a shift in population towards northern cities; if just 1% of the global population in 2025 are affected, 80,000,000 people will move to northern cities. Of 18 million refugees in the world today, at least 10 million are environmental refugees. A third of the world's population today lives within 60 km of coastlines; rising sea levels will cause millions of people to lose their homes and sources of food.

Preventive Measures for Global Warming:

As global temperatures rise, global warming is an increasing concern. The current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is higher than it has been at any point in history. the rise in global temperatures is moving at a faster rate than any point in the past 1,300 years. We can take steps to reduce emissions associated with our behaviors and lifestyle.
Reduce Energy Use

The energy you use at home and work contributes to increased levels of carbon dioxide; usually, fossil fuels are burned to produce and transport the energy, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. By reducing your energy use, you can reduce your personal carbon footprint. The first thing the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommends is changing out standard lightbulbs for compact fluorescent or LED lights, which use up to 75 percent less energy and last longer. You can also upgrade heating and cooling systems and insulate your home properly to make sure your home is not wasting energy. To reduce dependence on fossil fuels, buy green power, which is produced from renewable sources like solar or wind.
Update Buying Habits

The way you shop and the products you buy can contribute to global warming: the materials' sourcing, manufacturing, transportation and disposal all have the potential to cause emissions and pollutants to be released into the air. The EPA recommends buying Energy Star-certified products, which are designed to be efficient and last longer. When you can, buy used products and items with recycled content and minimal packaging. (See References 7) When it comes time to throw away items, try to recycle them or donate them to another source so that they don't end up in a landfill. Be mindful of food waste and try to compost leftover food scraps. Although food waste decomposes quickly, when this takes place unattended in a landfill the process releases methane, a greenhouse gas. Incineration of biodegradable materials also releases pollutants
Change Transportation Habits

Transportation --- in particular, car travel --- is responsible for about 25 percent of energy use in the U.S., according to the EPA, and also puts chemicals and pollutants into the air. To reduce your emissions, change your driving habits. The easiest way to cut carbon emissions is to drive less: carpool to work, take public transportation, walk or ride a bike. Consider telecommuting to work; the EPA says that working at home even one day per week can significantly reduce your carbon footprint if you are a car commuter. Keep your car maintained so that it runs efficiently. Turn off your car instead of idling, and don't drive aggressively, as abrupt acceleration and driving at high speeds burns up fuel.
Stop Deforestation

Deforestation is a major contributor to global warming. When large expanses of forest are cut or burned, carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is released into the atmosphere. Because trees also take carbon dioxide from the air, cutting down large numbers of trees causes carbon dioxide levels to rise even further. (See References 3) Although much of the major deforestation is taking place in tropical areas, you can take action to help prevent further loss. Support politicians who champion reforestation projects, donate to organizations that promote foreign forest management

and look for wood products that have the FSC-US Forest Management Standard certification to ensure that your buying behaviors are not contributing to deforestation. Unfortunately, the imbalance which we have created between our life and earth is already showing the signs disasters in the form of flood, cyclones, landslides, tsunami, drought, etc. If the imbalance continues to rise, one day this will pose a question mark on the existence of this planet. Carbon dioxide (C02) which is an important constituent of environment is causing a warming effect on the earths surface.

In conclusion, If we make small changes now in the way we live, we can avoid huge changes
in the future. Scientists, governments and individuals must work together to overcome this threat. The alarming worlds climate is very dangerous for mankind and ecological balance. Unless Global Warming is not controlled, no men, animals will be able to live, grow and thrive. So, we should try maintain the ecological balance to decrease the effects of Global Warming.