Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 24, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 24, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims declined to 340,000 for w/e on 17th May. European Flash Manufacturing PMI at 47.8-mark in current month. UKs Second Estimate GDP was at 0.3 percent in the Q1 of 2013. US New Home Sales gained by 10,000 to 454,000 in the last month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone in yesterdays trade coupled with optimism that company earnings and economy of Japan are intact. US Unemployment Claims declined by 23,000 to 340,000 for the week ending on 17th May as against a rise of 363,000 in prior week. Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 0.2 points to 51.9-mark in May from 52.1-level in April. House Price Index (HPI) increased by 1.3 percent in March as compared to rise of 0.9 percent a month ago. New Home Sales gained by 10,000 to 454,000 in April with respect to rise of 444,000 in earlier month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5967.1 19674.3 15294.5 1650.5 17008.4 1969.2 58497.8 14484.0 94.25 1392.00 2249.40 7304.25 102.09 Prev. day -2.1 -1.9 -0.1 -0.3 -3.1 -1.2 0.2 -7.3 0.0 1.0 0.2 -1.9 0.0

as on May 23, 2013 WoW -3.3 -2.8 0.4 0.0 -3.1 -0.9 6.8 -0.1 -1.0 0.4 -0.7 0.6 -2.7 MoM 0.9 1.4 4.0 4.5 2.7 1.8 7.8 4.3 1.3 -4.8 -5.3 -6.9 -0.3 YoY 22.8 7.6 22.4 25.1 31.2 2.3 8.2 69.3 4.8 -12.4 -18.2 -3.4 0.4

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.8 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable economic data from the US and Euro Zone. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, weak US equities markets also prevented sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.665 and closed at 83.80 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day -0.8 -0.1 0.13 0.12 WoW 0.1 -1.7 1.35 1.35

as on May 23, 2013 MoM 1.2 -3.0 2.33 2.32 YoY 5.5 0.4 -0.77 -0.76

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of expectations that US Federal Reserve may reduce its bond buying program coupled with increase in dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak domestic and global market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside was cushioned as exporters took advantage of the sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and sold few dollars along with weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 56.01 and closed at 55.70 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.18,197.70 crores ($3,358.47 million) as on 23rd May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.79,234.10 crores ($14,668.80 million) till 23rd May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of upbeat global market sentiments along with selling of dollars.

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.80 55.70 55.64 55.64

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for May 24, 2013 Support 55.45/55.30 Resistance 55.80/56

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 24, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in DX coupled with rise in manufacturing PMI as compared to the expectation. However, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.1 points to 45.5-mark in May as against a rise of 44.4-level in April. German Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 49-level in May from earlier rise of 48.1-mark in April. European Flash Manufacturing PMI gained by 1.1 points to 47.8-mark in May with respect to rise of 46.7-level a month ago. European Flash Services PMI grew by 0.5 points to 47.5-level in current month when compared to 47mark in the last month. European Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -22-mark in the month of April. The Euro touched an intraday high of 1.2955 and closed at 1.2935 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of expectation of favorable economic data from Euro Zone coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. However, strength in DX may cap sharp upside in the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.4/71.2 71.8/72.0 valid for May 24, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2935 72.11 71.7 71.7 Prev. day 0.6 -0.9 -0.20 -0.21

as on May 23, 2013 WoW 0.4 -2.3 1.35 1.34 MoM -0.6 -2.5 1.42 1.44 YoY 2.8 -6.2 1.04 1.06

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day 0.40 0.483 -0.02

as on May 23, 2013

WoW -1.1 0.48 0.30

MoM -2.1 1.53 1.14

YoY -3.7 -4.24 -4.85

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.40 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in DX. Further, second estimates of GDP showed that the countrys growth expanded by 0.3 percent in first quarter of 2013 supported currency to trade in green. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with decline in Prelim Business Investments capped sharp upside in the sterling pound. UKs Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.3 percent in the Q1 of 2013. Prelim Business Investment declined by 0.4 percent in first quarter of 2013 as against an earlier fall of 0.8 percent in fourth quarter of 2012. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5128 and closed at 1.5107 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with expectation of favorable economic data from the country. Further, countrys GDP grew by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013 may support currency to trade positive. However, strength in DX may cap sharp upside in the sterling pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 24, 2013 Support 83.6/83.4 Resistance 84.0/84.2

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5107 84.084 83.87

83.85

-0.04

0.32

1.10

-4.87

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 24, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of weak global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 100.82 and closed at 102.01 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 24, 2013 Support 54.5/54.3 Resistance 54.85/55.0

JPY (% change)
Last 102.01 0.544 54.73 54.74 Prev day -1.1 0.85 1.27 1.29

as on May 23, 2013 WoW -0.2 1.44 2.09 2.11 MoM 2.8 -0.27 -0.72 -0.66 YoY 28.4 -22.85 -22.47 -22.47

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 24, 2013

Indicator ECB President Draghi Speaks BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks GfK German Consumer Climate German Ifo Business Climate BBA Mortgage Approvals German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Country Europe Japan Europe Europe UK Europe US US Time (IST) 1:00am 8:25am 11:30am 1:30pm 2:00pm 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm Actual Forecast 6.2 104.6 32.7K 0.6% 1.8% Previous 6.2 104.4 31.2K -1.5% -6.9% Impact High High Medium High Medium Medium High Medium

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