JSW Steel 4Q FY 2013

4QFY2013 Result Update | Steel
May 23, 2013
JSW Steel
Performance Highlights
Quarterly performance (Standalone)
(` cr) Net Sales EBITDA % margin Adj. PAT 4QFY13(S) 9,249 1,697 18.4 443 4QFY12(S) 9,511 1,652 17.4 553 yoy% (2.8) 2.8 98bp (19.8) 4QFY13(C) 9,852 1,733 17.6 211 4QFY12(C) 10,153 1,887 18.6 48 yoy% (3.0) (8.2) (100)bp 342.0
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Steel 15,353 25,500 1.5 894/566 177,996 10 19,674 5,967 JSTL.BO JSTL@IN
`688 -
Source: Company, Angel Research
JSW Steels 4QFY2013 standalone results were better than our expectation both on top-line and bottom-line front. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock. Realization dips on lower steel prices: JSW Steels standalone net sales declined by 2.8% yoy to `9,249cr, above our estimate of `8,779cr due to higher-thanexpected realizations. Net sales growth was driven by an increase in steel volumes (+5.2% yoy to 2.43mn tonne), although the same was partially offset by a decline in realizations (-10.1% yoy to `38,638/tonne). Lower costs boost EBITDA growth but higher interest dents PAT: JSW Steels EBITDA increased by 2.8% yoy to `1,697cr mainly due to lower raw material and fuel costs. However, interest expenses grew by 20.3% yoy to `443cr and the depreciation expenses grew by 11.7% yoy to `527cr. and hence the adjusted net profit declined by 19.8% yoy to `443cr (above our estimate was of `271cr). Updates on new projects: The company new 2.3mn tonne capacity which is in technological collaboration with JFE Steel will be commissioned in October 2013. This facility has the capability to produce very high quality steel like Auto grade steel and Electrical steel which will have higher realizations. Outlook and valuation: JSW Steel aims to raise utilization levels at its Vijaynagar plant during FY2014. However, we believe increasing steel production meaningfully during FY2014 would remain a challenge until there is significant rise in iron ore supplies from Karnataka mines (we expect iron ore supplies in Karnataka to improve during 2HFY2014 as category B mines commence production). Moreover, we opine that JSW Ispats merger with JSW Steel is likely to be value-destructive for JSW Steels shareholders. The stock is currently trading at 3.8x FY2015E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg Adj. EPS (`) OPM (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 38.1 4.5 21.0 36.5
Abs. (%) Sensex JSW Steel
3m 1.8
1yr 23.4
3yr 19.6 (36.6)
(11.0) 19.3
FY2012
34,124 43.0 2,073 6.1 92.9 17.9 7.4 0.9 12.9 10.8 0.9 5.2
FY2013E
38,095 11.6 1,393 3.7 62.5 17.1 11.0 0.9 8.3 10.0 0.8 4.9
FY2014E
39,973 4.9 1,604 4.0 71.9 17.2 9.6 0.8 9.0 10.1 0.7 4.3
FY2015E
40,926 2.4 1,848 4.5 82.8 17.0 8.3 0.8 9.6 10.4 0.6 3.8
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
JSW Steel | 4QFY2013 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)

(` cr.) Net sales Raw material % of net sales Power & fuel % of net sales Staff cost % of net sales Other expenditure % of net sales Total expenditure % of net sales Operating profit Other operating income EBIDTA EBITDA margins (%) Interest Depreciation Other income Exceptional items Profit before tax % of net sales Tax % of PBT Adj. PAT
4QFY13
9,249 5,814 62.9 464 5.0 161 1.7 1,156 12.5 7,594 82.1 1,655 42 1,697 18.4 443 527 54 (130) 911 9.8 338 37.1 443
4QFY12
9,511 6,240 65.6 483 5.1 153 1.6 1,018 10.7 7,893 83.0 1,618 33 1,652 17.4 368 472 48 199 1,060 11.1 307 29.0 553
yoy%
(2.8) (6.8) (4.0) 5.1 13.6 (3.8) 2.3 25.7 2.8 (0.98) 20.3 11.7 11.2 (14.0) 9.9 (19.8)
3QFY13
8,275 5,354 64.7 493 6.0 160 1.9 972 11.7 6,979 84.3 1,296 18 1,314 15.9 455 498 57 327 91 1.1 (46) (50.7) 464
qoq%
11.8 8.6 (5.9) 0.1 18.9 8.8 27.7 139.7 29.2 (2.7) 6.0 (5.1) 903.8 (834.2) (4.5)
FY2013
35,388 22,428 63.4 1,964 5.6 671 1.9 4,120 11.6 29,183 82.5 6,205 104 6,309 17.8 1,724 1,974 261 (367) 2,504 7.1 703 28.1 2,168
FY2012
32,060 20,740 64.7 1,684 5.3 626 2.0 3,442 10.7 26,492 82.6 5,569 62 5,631 17.6 1,186 1,708 179 (821) 2,095 6.5 469 22.4 2,447
yoy%
10.4 8.1 16.6 7.2 19.7 10.2 11.4 67.5 12.0 (0.26) 45.4 15.6 45.5 (55.3) 19.6 50.0 (11.4)
Exhibit 2: 4QFY2013 Actual vs. Angel estimates (Standalone)

(` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Actual 9,249 1,697 18.4 443
Estimates 8,779 1,317 15.0 271
Variation (%) 5.4 28.9 335bps 63.6
May 23, 2013
Exhibit 3: 4QFY2013 performance (Consolidated)

(` cr.) Net sales Raw material % of net sales Power & fuel % of net sales Staff cost % of net sales Other expenditure % of net sales Total expenditure % of net sales Operating profit Other operating income EBIDTA EBITDA margins (%) Interest Depreciation Other income Exceptional items Profit before tax % of net sales Tax % of PBT Adj. PAT
4QFY13
9,852 6,183 62.8 484 4.9 221 2.2 1,277 13.0 8,165 82.9 1,687 47 1,733 17.6 507 595 3 70 704 7.1 376 53.4 211
4QFY12
10,153 6,622 65.2 514 5.1 226 2.2 1,112 11.0 8,474 83.5 1,679 208 1,887 18.6 455 528 24 200 1,129 11.1 310 27.4 48
yoy%
(3.0) (6.6) (5.9) (2.1) 14.9 (3.6) 0.4 (77.6) (8.2) 11.5 12.7 (88.4) (37.6) 21.4 342.0
3QFY13
8,866 5,777 65.2 513 5.8 232 2.6 1,036 11.7 7,557 85.2 1,309 22 1,331 15.0 517 563 8 (268) (9) (0.1) (17) 200.9 220
qoq%
11.1 7.0 (5.6) (4.6) 23.3 8.0 28.8 114.8 30.2 (1.8) 5.7 (65.6) (4.2)
FY2013
38,095 24,168 63.4 2,041 5.4 980 2.6 4,516 11.9 31,706 83.2 6,389 115 6,504 17.1 1,967 2,237 70 (369) 1,999 5.2 845 42.3 1,393
FY2012
34,124 21,928 64.3 1,752 5.1 846 2.5 3,740 11.0 28,266 82.8 5,858 244 6,102 17.9 1,427 1,933 77 (825) 1,993 5.8 500 25.1 2,073
yoy%
11.6 10.2 16.5 15.8 20.8 12.2 9.1 6.6 37.8 15.7 (9.3) 0.3 69.0 (32.8)
May 23, 2013
Result highlights
Realization dips on lower steel prices: JSW Steels standalone net sales declined by 2.8% yoy to `9,249cr, above our estimate of `8,779cr due to higher-thanexpected realisations. Net sales growth was driven by an increase in steel volumes (+5.2% yoy to 2.43mn tonne), although the same was partially offset by a decline in realizations (-10.1% yoy to `38,638/tonne). Exhibit 4: Higher sales volumes...
2.8 2.4
(mn tonnes)
1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2
Exhibit 5: ...Partially offset by lower realizations...

60.0 44,000
43,000 42,000 43,130 42,831 42,901 43,003 42,900
25 41,884
2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0
( ` /tonne)
30.0
41,000
(%)
0.0
39,000
38,000 37,000
38,804
38,638
(30.0)
36,000
(25)
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
2QFY13
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Sales Volume (LHS)
yoy change (RHS)
Revenue/tonne (LHS)
yoy change (RHS)
Lower costs boost EBITDA growth: JSW Steels EBITDA increased by 2.8% yoy to `1,697cr mainly due to lower raw material and fuel costs. The raw material costs declined by 6.8% yoy to `5,814cr. The power costs were lower due to better coal linkages in this quarter. Higher interest and depreciation costs dents PAT performance: Interest expenses grew by 20.3% yoy to `443cr and the depreciation expenses grew by 11.7% yoy to `527cr. The company reported an exceptional item related to forex loss of `130cr. Hence, the adjusted net profit (excluding exceptional items) declined by 19.8% yoy to `443cr (above our estimate was of `271cr). The reported net profit was however down 23.8% yoy to `573cr.
4QFY13
1QFY13
3QFY13
May 23, 2013
(%)
40,000
Exhibit 6: Adjusted net profit stood at `443cr

1,000 800 640 668 553 464 861 12 9
(` cr)
600
578
400
200 -
400
3 0
1QFY12
3QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
Adjusted net profit (LHS)

margin (RHS)
Update on iron ore mines in Karnataka: On the iron ore situation in Karnataka, the company stated the Supreme Court has capped the mining limit in Karnataka to 30mn tonnes and has elongated the mine life criteria for the existing mines to 20 years. However the company expects the total availability of iron ore in Karnataka at around 24mn tonnes by end of FY2014. Updates on new projects: The company new 2.3mn tonne capacity which is in technological collaboration with JFE Steel will be commissioned in October 2013. This facility has the capability to produce very high quality steel like Auto grade steel and Electrical steel which will have higher realizations.
4QFY13
2QFY12
4QFY12
May 23, 2013
(%)
443
Investment rationale
Utilization levels remain at risk: Although JSW Steel has expanded its capacity, its Vijaynagar plant (capacity 10mn tonne) continues to operate at lower utilization levels on account of shortage of iron ore due to mining ban in Karnataka. Although we expect iron ore supplies to improve gradually during FY2014 as category B mines commence operations, there is lack of clarity on the timelines and anticipated production from these mines. Procedural delays in the commencement of operations from Karnataka mines could result in higher iron ore costs/lower utilization for JSW Steel.
Merger with JSW Ispat to be margin-dilutive: JSW Steel is expected to merge with JSW Ispat over the coming one year. However, JSW Ispats margins are much lower compared to JSW Steels standalone margins. Given the commodity nature of the business, JSW Steels Management is not expected to turnaround JSW Ispats loss making plants in the near-term, in our opinion. Further, JSW Ispats debt will raise debt-equity ratio of the merged entity. Hence, JSW Ispats merger with JSW Steel is likely to be value-destructive for JSW Steels shareholders (at least during our investment horizon).
Outlook and valuation

JSW Steel aims to raise utilization levels at its Vijaynagar plant during FY2014. However, we believe increasing steel production meaningfully during FY2014 would remain a challenge until there is significant rise in iron ore supplies from Karnataka mines (we expect iron ore supplies in Karnataka to improve during 2HFY2014 as category B mines commence production). Moreover, we opine that JSW Ispats merger with JSW Steel is likely to be value -destructive for JSW Steels shareholders. The stock is currently trading at 3.8x FY2015E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Exhibit 7: EPS Angel forecast vs. consensus
Year (`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)
FY2014E FY2015E
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
71.9 82.8
78.6 90.7
(8.6) (8.7)
May 23, 2013
Exhibit 8: P/E band

1,600 1,400
1,200
1,000
(`)
800
600
400
200
0 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09

6x
May-10
Feb-11
12x
Nov-11 Aug-12
15x
May-13
9x
Exhibit 9: EV/EBITDA band

80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000
(` cr)
40,000 30,000
20,000 10,000 0
May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 2x

4x
6x
8x
10x
Exhibit 10: P/BV band

1,800
1,600 1,400 1,200

(`)
1,000 800 600 400

200 0
May-07
Feb-08
Nov-08 0.5x
Aug-09
May-10 1.0x
Feb-11 Nov-11 1.5x
Aug-12 2.0x
May-13
May 23, 2013
Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary

Company CMP Target price (`) JSW SAIL (`) Reco. Mcap (` cr) Upside (%) P/E (x) FY14E P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY14E FY15E RoE (%) FY14E FY15E RoCE (%) FY14E FY15E FY15E FY14E FY15E
688 59
- Neutral 430 Buy - Neutral
15,353 30,263 24,679
43 -
9.6 10.1 9.2
8.3 5.8 8.0
0.8 0.7 0.6
0.8 0.7 0.5
4.3 5.9 7.2
3.8 4.7 6.9
9.0 7.6 6.2
9.6 12.1 6.9
10.1 9.7 5.4
10.4 12.0 6.9
Tata Steel 300
Company background
Incorporated in 1994, JSW Steel is India's second largest private sector steel maker with a steel making capacity of 11mn tonne. The company has the most modern steel plants with the latest technologies for both upstream and downstream processes. The company has an iron ore mine in Karnataka which fulfills 15% of its requirement. During FY2011, the company acquired 49% stake in JSW Ispat for an enterprise value of US$3bn and is now expected to be merged with JSW Steel during CY2013. The combined capacity of both companies would be 14mn tonne.
May 23, 2013
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Other operating income Total operating income % chg Total Expenditure Net Raw Materials Other Mfg costs Personnel EBITDA % chg (% of Net Sales) Depreciation& Amortization EBIT % chg (% of Net Sales) Interest & other Charges Other Income (% of PBT) Share in profit of Associates Recurring PBT % chg Extraordinary Inc/(Expense) PBT (reported) Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Add: Share of earnings of asso. Less: Minority interest (MI) Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) PAT after MI (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (`) Adj. fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg
previous year numbers
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 18,897 23,862 34,124 60 19.0 244 27.2 244 42.6 18,957 24,106 34,368 14,887 19,238 28,266 11,231 14,774 21,928 3,176 480 4,071 36.5 21.5 1,299 2,772 39.0 14.7 1,108 128 7.2 1,792 61.4 408 2,200 647 29.4 1,553 11 33 1,598 1,190 11.2 6.3 68.8 63.8 67.1 3,824 641 4,868 19.6 20.4 1,560 3,308 19.3 13.9 1,060 190 7.8 2,438 36.0 2,438 779 31.9 1,659 71 24 1,754 1,754 47.4 7.4 78.6 78.6 23.3 5,492 846 6,102 25.4 17.9 1,933 4,169 26.0 12.2 1,427 77 2.7 2,818 15.6 (825) 1,993 500 25.1 1,493 (226) (19) 710 1,959 2,073 18.2 6.1 92.9 92.9 18.2 38,095 115 38,210 11.2 31,706 24,168 6,557 980 6,504 6.6 17.1 2,237 4,266 2.3 11.2 1,967 70 2.9 2,369 (16.0) (369.4) 1,999 845 42.3 1,154 (165) 34 60.8 1,085 1,393 (32.8) 3.7 62.5 62.5 (32.8) 39,973 107 40,080 4.9 33,081 25,046 6,995 1,039 6,866 5.6 17.2 2,478 4,388 2.8 11.0 1,897 249 9.1 2,740 15.7 2,740 822 30.0 1,918 (357) 43 1,604 1,604 15.1 4.0 71.9 71.9 15.1 40,926 109 41,035 2.4 33,919 25,692 7,162 1,064 6,967 1.5 17.0 2,537 4,429 1.0 10.8 1,859 274 9.6 2,844 3.8 2,844 853 30.0 1,991 (197) 54 1,848 1,848 15.3 4.5 82.8 82.8 15.3
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
May 23, 2013
Balance sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Share Warrants Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Other Long term liabilities Long term provisions Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets
FY2010 187 9,070 9,257 219 16,173 1,685
FY2011 284 15,716 16,000 529 222 18,373 2,049 773 23
FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 284 16,465 16,750 218 21,786 2,725 472 35 42,302 41,446 8,877 32,568 2,832 1,244 2,090 12,563 3,047 2,187 7,329 11,928 635 42,302 284 17,205 17,489 183 24,286 2,725 472 35 45,507 47,246 11,115 36,131 2,332 1,244 2,090 13,022 5,631 2,187 5,204 12,245 778 45,507 284 18,544 18,828 140 21,786 2,725 472 35 44,303 48,746 13,593 35,152 1,832 1,244 2,090 13,405 5,781 2,187 5,437 12,353 1,052 44,303 284 20,102 20,387 87 19,286 2,725 472 35 43,308 50,246 16,131 34,115 1,332 1,244 2,090 14,013 6,253 2,187 5,573 12,419 1,594 43,308
27,334 26,792 5,339 21,453 6,956 899 628 5,470 303 1,604 3,563 8,073 (2,603) 27,334
38,246 32,684 6,873 25,811 5,983 1,093 2,914 8,582 2,036 1,203 5,343 7,878 704 38,246
May 23, 2013
10
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in Working Capital Others Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments Share of profit/ (loss) from asso. Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 2,200 1,299 793 459 3,361 (209) 13 629 57 1,149 (576) (147) 450 303 2,438 1,560 570 426 2,830 (11.6) 53 5,936 401 240 1,001 5,096 293 1,755 573 1,933 1,933 1,054 407 3,512 13.2 144 2,191 350 1,143 698 110 573 683 1,999 2,237 2,441 845 5,833 (5,300) (165) (5,465) 2,500 284 2,216 2,584 683 5,631 2,740 2,478 (124) 822 4,272 (1,000) (357) (1,357) (2,500) 265 (2,765) 150 5,631 5,781 2,844 2,537 (70) 853 4,459 (1,000) (197) (1,197) (2,500) 290 (2,790) 472 5,781 6,253
(471) (1,314) (1,062)
(2,736) (7,674) (4,079)
(2,932) (7,633) (4,101)
May 23, 2013
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage
comparable with previous year ratios
FY2010 10.8 4.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 6.9 1.0 68.8 63.8 154.8 9.5 480.0 14.7 70.6 0.7 7.6 4.8 1.7 12.4 10.7 17.3 16.1 0.8 49 10 42 (64) 1.7 3.7 2.5
FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 8.8 4.6 1.0 1.5 1.2 5.9 0.8 78.6 78.6 148.5 10.0 704.7 13.9 68.1 0.8 7.3 4.2 0.9 10.0 10.5 15.7 14.2 0.8 46 10 37 (32) 0.9 2.8 3.1 7.4 6.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 5.2 0.8 92.9 92.9 110.8 10.0 738.3 12.2 74.9 1.0 8.8 5.3 1.0 12.3 10.8 14.9 12.9 0.9 47 11 29 (20) 1.0 2.7 2.9 11.0 4.8 0.9 1.5 0.8 4.9 0.7 62.5 62.5 143.5 10.0 771.4 11.2 57.7 1.0 6.8 4.9 1.0 8.5 10.0 13.2 8.3 0.9 47 11 29 1 1.0 2.5 2.2 9.6 3.8 0.8 1.6 0.7 4.3 0.7 71.9 71.9 183.0 11.0 831.4 11.0 70.0 1.1 8.8 5.8 0.8 11.0 10.1 13.5 9.0 0.8 47 11 29 25 0.8 2.0 2.3 8.3 3.5 0.8 1.7 0.6 3.8 0.6 82.8 82.8 196.6 12.0 901.3 10.8 70.0 1.2 9.2 6.3 0.5 10.8 10.4 14.0 9.6 0.8 47 11 29 26 0.5 1.6 2.4
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be
May 23, 2013
12
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
JSW Steel No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
May 23, 2013
13

JSW Steel 4Q FY 2013

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JSW Steel 4Q FY 2013

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4QFY2013 Result Update | Steel

May 23, 2013

Source: Company, Angel Research

Abs. (%) Sensex JSW Steel

3yr 19.6 (36.6)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report