Unesco - Revista Ds Unesco 2009

Revista Internacional de Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Direccin: Consejo de Redaccin. Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya.
Edifici "L'Escola Industrial de Terrassa" C/. Colom, 1 08222 Terrassa Espaa
Tel: +34 93 739 80 50 Fax: +34 93 739 80 32 E-mail: sth@catunesco.upc.edu http://www.catunesco.upc.edu
Produccin y diseo: Ana Andrs y Jordi Bofill.
Copyright: Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad de la Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Esta obra est subjecta a la licencia Creative Commons:
Licencia Reconocimiento-No comercial-SinObraDerivada 3.0 Genrica. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/deed.es
Editor Juan Carlos Aguado. Profesor de la Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Consejo asesor Internacional Josep Maria Baldasano. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Mart Boada. Universitat Autnoma de Barcelona. Espaa. Flavio Comim. University of Cambridge. Gran Bretaa. Ernest Garcia. Universitat de Valncia. Espaa. Sergio Guevara. Instituto de Ecologa A.C. Mxico. Javier Martnez Peinado. Universitat de Barcelona. Espaa. Karen Mulder. Delft University of Technology. Holanda. Maria Novo. Universidad Nacional de Educacin a Distancia. Espaa. Juan Jess Prez Gonzlez. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Luz Stella Velsquez Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Colombia. Arcadi Oliveras. Universitat Autnoma de Barcelona. Espaa. Gustavo Perrusquia. Chalmers University of Technology. Suecia. Ruben Pesci. Foro Latinoamericano de Ciencias Ambientales. Argentina. Comit de redaccin Xavier Alvarez.Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Miquel Barcel.Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Marcel Cano. Universitat de Barcelona. Espaa. Enric Carrera. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Diana Cayuela. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Jaume Cendra.Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Gemma Cervantes. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Albert Cuchi. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Ddac Ferrer. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Jos Juan de Felipe Blanch. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Joan Garcia. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Guillermo Lusa. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Jordi Morat.Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Ramon Sans. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. Espaa. Andri Stahel. Colaborador Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad. UPC. Espaa. Carlos Welsh. Investigador del Centro de Ciencias de la Tierra de la Universidad Veracruzana. Mxico.
Contenido
Presentacin J. C. Aguado.............................................................................................................................. vii * * *
Interpretaciones visuales de la sostenibilidad: Enfoques comparados y presentacin de un Modelo Integral para la toma de decisiones A. Rocuts et al.............................................................................................................................1 Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua B. Sureda...................................................................................................................................23 Nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation analysis in two models of sustainable development F. Angulo et al...........................................................................................................................41 Applying remote sensing and GIS on monitoring and measuring urban sprawl. A case study of China L. Feng......................................................................................................................................47 Diseo y simulacin de escenarios de demanda de suelo urbano en mbitos metropolitanos. F. Aguilera et al.........................................................................................................................57 Modelizacin de los factores de crecimiento urbano como aporte a la sostenibilidad. Estudio de caso: Manizales Colombia P.A Cifuentes............................................................................................................................81 Municipal sustainable development possibilities along the US-Mexico border: an interdisciplinary evaluation effort C.V. Licn and T. Balarezo......................................................................................................97 Computer-based methods for a socially sustainable urban and regional planning H. Koehler et al.......................................................................................................................115
Sustainability assessment of urban policy scenarios: analysing the impacts of land usetransportation interaction in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area S. Campo.................................................................................................................................125 El cambio climtico en Espaa y sus implicaciones para la sostenibilidad P. Alvarez-Ura et al................................................................................................................151 Las reas de acceso preferencial, un instrumento de apoyo para la gestin de la sostenibilidad en las reas marinas protegidas A. Molina et al........................................................................................................................157 Network research by data graph management for capacity development and knowledge building in sustainable sanitation D. Franquesa y C. Amengual..................................................................................................167 The sustainable consumption of domestic products: the environmental effect of packaging M. Meneses et al.....................................................................................................................185
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Presentacin
Juan Carlos Aguado Editor Doctor en Informtica Profesor Titular de Ingeniera de Sistemas y Automtica Profesor de la Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad Universitat Politcnica de CatalunyaJ.C. Aguado
Nos honra presentar el cuarto nmero de la Revista Internacional de Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo, correspondiente al ao 2009, y dedicado en exclusiva a recoger las mejores (en opinin de los revisores) contribuciones del II Congreso Internacional de Medida y Modelizacin de la Sostenibilidad (ICSMM 09). Hemos podido recoger hasta trece de esas contribuciones, pero unas cuantas de no menor mrito se han quedado en el camino, por lo cual estamos trabajando para editar en pocos meses un nmero especial y modificar en el futuro la fecha de publicacin de nuestra revista. Una de las mayores satisfacciones de participar en el congreso ICSMM 09 ha sido comprobar como personas que proceden de campos muy diversos han llegado a conclusiones muy similares siguiendo tambin diferentes caminos. Al fin y al cabo, estamos seguros de que dentro de pocos aos cualquier persona sensata ver como obvia la bsqueda de sostenibilidad y ver increble que alguien en algn momento pudiera poner en marcha cualquier proyecto con la nica meta de los beneficios econmicos a corto plazo. Recordemos que hace ya 30 aos que la IUCN hizo pblicas sus reflexiones sobre la necesidad de no olvidar los factores ambientales y sociales, ni el largo plazo, antes de tomar cualquier decisin. El presente y voluminoso nmero reparte sus artculos casi equitativamente entre el ingls y el castellano (siete a seis). Cualquier ordenacin es discutible y parcialmente insatisfactoria, as que abriremos con el trabajo de Rocuts, Jimnez y Navarrete que nos puede dar una buena visin de conjunto de diferentes mtodos grficos para representar la sostenibilidad, y debemos ser conscientes de que una de las herramientas ms potentes para la resolucin de un problema es su representacin en un nuevo marco, donde podamos movernos con ms facilidad.
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A continuacin podemos pasar de la vista de pjaro a la mayor densidad de datos. Sureda, Felipe y Cruz nos presentan nada menos que un anlisis de sostenibilidad de Catalua (cerca de siete millones y medio de personas) con la recoleccin de todos los indicadores considerados de inters. Sin duda an teniendo datos y sistemas para representarlos, un poco de teora nos ayudar mucho para extraer de ellos autntica informacin. Angulo, Olivar, Osorio y Velsquez nos recuerdan (en ingls) la teora matemtica de las bifurcaciones y la aplican a un par de ejemplos inseparables de la sostenibilidad. Tambin en ingls, como es lgico, Li Feng nos presenta un estudio de crecimiento urbano en una regin de China, con integracin de datos de Sistemas de Informacin Geogrfica (GIS) y nos sirve para abrir un grupo de contribuciones relacionadas. Aguilera, Plata, Bosque y Gmez integran no slo GIS sino tambin Dinmica de Sistemas para modelizar el crecimiento de Madrid y Granada. Paula Cifuentes, por su parte, no usa la Dinmica de Sistemas sino un enfoque ms estadstico para intentar determinar las variables que explican en mayor grado el crecimiento de histrico de Manizales (Colombia). Licn y Balarezo se atreven (en ingls) nada menos que a intentar medir y representar (con lo cual hacemos un guio al artculo que abre este nmero) la sostenibilidad en los principales municipios transfronterizos de Mxico con Estados Unidos. Finalmente, en este grupo de artculos, Koehler, Koenig, Steinhoefel y Kalisch nos presentan brevemente su intencin de desarrollar una herramienta de planificacin urbana que tenga en cuenta las dinmicas sociales y los desplazamientos humanos que provocan. El siguiente artculo est muy ligado al grupo anterior pero ms centrado en el transporte. Sofia L. do Campo nos introduce (en ingls) en las complejidades del transporte en la zona metropolitana de Lisboa, su modelizacin con Dinmica de Sistemas y los escenarios futuros que ofrece la evolucin de su sostenibilidad. A continuacin podemos preguntarnos por las consecuencias, y Alvarez-Ura, Landa, Guaita y Ayuso nos nos aseguran en un breve artculo que el calentamiento climtico ser especialmente preocupante para la Pennsula Ibrica. La contribucin de Molina, Garca y Llanos sobre la gestin sostenible de reas marinas protegidas es un ejemplo de hasta qu punto algunos artculos, ya muy apreciables, han mejorado sensiblemente tras su presentacin en el congreso ICSMM 09. Casi al final, Franquesa y Amengual proponen (en ingls) una muy original contribucin para elaborar bases de datos sobre proyectos de colaboracin y lo ilustran con una de las infraestructuras ms indispensables en tales casos: los sistemas de alcantarillado y depuracin. Y cerramos el nmero con una pieza ligera pero que despierta una reflexin ineludible. Meneses, Pasqualino y Castells nos recuerdan las consecuencias del
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embalaje excesivo y poco planificado a largo plazo de los productos que consumimos. Estamos cada vez ms lejos de la sostenibilidad, al menos en su parte ambiental, pero cada vez ms cerca de que un nmero suficiente de personas comprenda que se no puede ser el camino. Slo un empujoncito ms.
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Interpretaciones visuales de la sostenibilidad: Enfoques comparados y presentacin de un Modelo Integral para la toma de decisiones
Rocuts, Asthriesslav1, Jimnez Herrero, Luis M.2, Navarrete P., Marcela3 A. Rocuts et al. 1 Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad, Universidad Politcnica de Catalua EUETIT, Colom 1, 08222 Terrassa, Espaa Email: arocuts@catunesco.upc.edu - Web page: http://www.catunesco.upc.edu
2
Observatorio de Sostenibilidad en Espaa, Universidad Alcal de Henares Plaza San Diego s/n - Casa Anexa al Rectorado, 2 planta (28801), Alcal de Henares, Madrid, Espaa . Email: luisjimenez@uah.es - Web page: http://www.sostenibilidad-es.org 3 rea de Gestin Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniera - EIDENAR, Universidad del Valle Edificio 344 - Ciudadela Universitaria Melndez, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia Email: mnavarre@univalle.edu.co - Web page: http://eidenar.univalle.edu.co Resumen No hay un solo enfoque de la Sostenibilidad. Las diversas propuestas conceptuales pueden representarse grficamente, de forma que cada modelo resultante plasma la importancia que el/la autor/a otorga a las diferentes dimensiones que configuran la sostenibilidad. La interpretacin visual es un medio que ayuda a comprender mejor y perfeccionar el desarrollo de conceptos. Su aplicacin a la Sostenibilidad aporta un valor aadido porque sintetiza conceptos, consolida enfoques y le otorga operatividad. Las propuestas de interpretacin visual de la Sostenibilidad se basan, entre otras figuras espaciales, en los diagramas de Venn, en los crculos concntricos y no concntricos, en algunas propuestas geomtricas como el tringulo de la sostenibilidad, y en las representaciones vectoriales. Los modelos estn evolucionado al tiempo que lo hace la propia concepcin terica de la Sostenibilidad que se configura como un concepto multidimensional y multifuncional. En un inicio, las representaciones contemplaban las tres dimensiones bsicas de la Sostenibilidad: social, medioambiental y econmica. Progresivamente se ha ido incluyendo una cuarta dimensin, que puede variar de un autor a otro y que, en este caso, se identifica con la polticoinstitucional, si bien tambin se van aceptando otras dimensiones como la cultural y la global.
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En este trabajo se comparan diversas propuestas de interpretacin visual ya existentes para representar la Sostenibilidad y se presenta una nueva, de tipo vectorial, que incluye las cuatro dimensiones. Los/as autores/as presentan su modelo con un objetivo principal: ayudar a visualizar las interacciones y los procesos de sostenibilidad en la toma de decisiones relacionadas con el nuevo paradigma del desarrollo sostenible. Palabras clave: Sostenibilidad, Modelos de Sostenibilidad, Toma Estratgica de Decisiones. * * *
Title: VISUAL INTERPRETATIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY: Comparative Approaches and Introduction of an Integrated Model for the Decision Making. Abstract: There is no single approach to Sustainability. The several different conceptual proposals can be graphically represented in a way that each resultant model depicts the importance that the author(s) give to the different dimensions defining sustainability. Visual interpretation is a better way to help understand and enhance the concept of development. Its application to Sustainability contributes with a value added, since it synthesizes concepts, consolidates approaches and grants it with functionality. The visual interpretation proposals of Sustainability are based, among other spatial figures, on the Venns diagrams on concentric and non-concentric circles, on some geometrical proposals such as the sustainability triangle, and vector representations. Models and the own theoretical conception of Sustainability which is configured as a multidimensional and multifunctional concept are simultaneously evolving. In the beginning, representations included the three basic Sustainability dimensions: social, environmental and economic. Little by little, a fourth dimension has being included, which may vary from one author to another and that, in such case, it is identified with the political-institutional dimension, although other dimensions such as the cultural and global ones are also being accepted. In this paper, several visual interpretation proposals for Sustainability -already existent- are being compared. Yet, a new vector-type proposal which includes a fourth dimension is presented. The authors present this model with the primary objective of: helping to visualize sustainability interactions and processes in decision-making processes related to the new paradigm of sustainable development. Keywords: Sustainability, Sustainability Models, Strategic Decision making.
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Las propuestas conceptuales pueden contar con interpretaciones visuales que ayuden a representar las diversas aproximaciones que se tienen de la sostenibilidad. A continuacin, teniendo en cuenta la importancia de la representacin visual como medio para avanzar en el desarrollo de conceptos (Schnotz, 2002; Shah and Hoeffner, 2002; Verdi and Kulhavy, 2002; ODonnell et al, 2002) se presentan algunas de las principales interpretaciones visuales de la sostenibilidad, las cuales estn supeditadas a un modelo conceptual especfico. La Sostenibilidad es un concepto integral, por tanto, requiere que todas sus dimensiones sean consideradas interdependientes entre s. De esta forma han surgido una serie de propuestas de interpretaciones visuales de la sostenibilidad, en las cuales es posible encontrar: diagramas de Venn, crculos concntricos y no-concntricos, propuestas geomtricas (como el tringulo de la Sostenibilidad) y por ltimo las representaciones vectoriales, entre otros. A continuacin se presentan de manera sinttica varias de estas propuestas, algunas de ellas fundamentadas en las tres dimensiones bsicas de la sostenibilidad y otras en propuestas ms recientes que incorporan una cuarta dimensin a la conceptualizacin y anlisis de la Sostenibilidad. En primer lugar, es necesario aclarar que, para hablar de modelos integracionales (Lozano, 2008), se parte de los subsistemas que le conforman, es decir, el social, el medioambiental, el econmico y el poltico-institucional (cuando sea el caso), dndole idealmente la misma importancia a cada uno, y a partir del modelo esttico que se proponga, verificar cmo se van construyendo las interconexiones entre sistemas. Finalmente se obtiene una combinacin considerada sostenible del proceso o aspecto(s) valorado(s). En la figura 1 se observa este proceso dinmico, por etapas, de un modelo que integra las tres dimensiones bsicas, representado en un diagrama de Venn.
Figura 1: Integracin e interaccin de los subsistemas econmico, medioambiental y social. Fuente: Adaptado de Lozano (2008)
Para avanzar en esta lnea, la siguiente figura contiene las interpretaciones visuales ms comunes de las tres dimensiones bsicas de la Sostenibilidad, planteadas como diagramas de Venn y, crculos concntricos y no-concntricos (Lozano, 2008). Es importante resaltar que se parte de un sistema base (apartado a de la figura), el cual contiene los subsistemas que pueden ser o no, de igual tamao depende de cada modelo-. Cada una de las propuestas refleja la importancia y el orden jerrquico que se le da a dichos subsistemas. De esta forma, la columna b refleja el modelo
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inicial de sostenibilidad (esttico), mientras que la columna c propone la interaccin entre subsistemas (modelo dinmico) y por ltimo, la columna d corresponde a un modelo integrado de sostenibilidad para un tiempo (t1).
Figura 2. Representacin como diagramas de Venn y crculos concntricos y no-concntricos de autores varios. Fuente: Adaptado de Lozano (2008)
La primera representacin [columna b, fila 1 = b1], le da igual importancia a los tres subsistemas, por lo cual hace nfasis en la interseccin de las dimensiones. Dichas intersecciones generan resultados diferentes para cada grupo combinatorio entre dimensiones (subsistemas). En este modelo se consideran sostenibilidades parciales (P en el grfico) las resultantes de la interseccin de dos subsistemas, y sostenibilidad total (Full en el grfico) a la interseccin de los tres subsistemas. A medida que interactan entre subsistemas va conformando una nueva representacin que va orientada a un objetivo final nico, dando como resultado un enfoque integrado de decisin, basado en la sostenibilidad. (columna d) La segunda y tercera propuestas -columnas b2 y b3 respectivamente-, corresponden a representaciones de crculos no concntricos y concntricos y, hacen referencia a un sistema amplio que cumple la funcin de ser continente y otros subsistemas que son contenidos en el
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mismo. Es decir, se trata de un modelo de escalas (y por tanto, rdenes de magnitud). As, el modelo refleja que el medioambiente es el sistema ms amplio, que contiene a los dems, por tanto, comprende la Sociedad, que contiene a su vez el subsistema econmico 1. Es decir, hace referencia a lmites en cada subsistema. A partir de estas representaciones y teniendo en cuenta que la Sostenibilidad trata de equilibrios dinmicos, se tiene la propuesta de R. Lozano (2008), que busca sealar las interacciones entre distintos momentos de sostenibilidad, es decir, en un tiempo (t1) y en un tiempo (t2). Ver figura 3.
Figura 3. Interacciones entre dos momentos diferentes de la sostenibilidad en equilibrio, teniendo en cuenta los aspectos econmicos, medioambientales y sociales. Fuente: Lozano (2008)
Otras propuestas de representacin grfica de la Sostenibilidad que intentan incluir ms elementos de anlisis, como las escalas y los condicionantes, son por ejemplo los diagramas de Venn de Dalal-Clayton y Lozano-Ros (Lozano, 2008), que incluyen las relaciones entre escalas local, nacional y global, partiendo de la necesidad de integrar las dimensiones social, econmica y medioambiental de forma ms holista. Este ltimo autor tambin propone una representacin que incluye una visin intergeneracional. Existen tambin otras propuestas como la del Tringulo 3D de la Sostenibilidad de Dyllick & Hockers (figura 4), la cual se basa en los capitales de cada subsistema. Este modelo resalta la eficiencia, la efectividad, la suficiencia y la equidad, y es usado principalmente en el sector industrial-empresarial.
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Figura 4: Tringulo 3D de la sostenibilidad de Dyllick & Hockers. Fuente: Mauerhofer (2008)
Se han visto, hasta ahora, diversas interpretaciones de la sostenibilidad tomando sus tres dimensiones bsicas: la social, la medioambiental y la econmica, pero la inclusin de una cuarta dimensin, la poltico-institucional, es imprescindible, sobretodo si se focaliza en hacer operativa la sostenibilidad, pues esta dimensin contiene las estructuras y procesos que permiten a una sociedad regular sus acciones en pos de sus objetivos (Gallopn 2006, p. 11). Por tanto, es la dimensin directamente relacionada con la gobernanza, clave para en la toma de decisiones. Para que las tres dimensiones bsicas de la sostenibilidad, al igual que sus interconexiones e interdependencias sean orgnicamente reguladas, es necesario contar con un sistema que asegure el respeto de cada una de dichas dimensiones (esferas) y vele por una actuacin integrada, basada en la sostenibilidad y que comprenda la responsabilidad a corto y largo plazo, por las decisiones tomadas. Este reto corresponde a la sostenibilidad poltico-institucional, al jugar el papel de referee normativo-institucional para garantizar la coherencia de las decisiones tomadas, a fin de que sean sostenibles, pero no por separado, sino conjuntamente. (OConnor, 2006). La dimensin poltico-institucional se construye a partir de los marcos normativos establecidos por la sociedad, a travs de normas, reglas, leyes, convenciones, Acuerdos, Tratados, etc., e incluye a todos los agentes (actores e instituciones) vinculadas con todas y cada una de las dimensiones. Es, por tanto, la dimensin que debera garantizar la accin integrada, y que funciona a travs de procesos y acuerdos, a diversas escalas y niveles. Por consiguiente, como afirma OConnor le corresponde la regulacin de las esferas econmica, social, y medioambiental esta ltima en su proteccin y gestin integral-. Esta dimensin normativa, por ende, tiene como funcin velar por el equilibrio dinmico de los diversos subsistemas, a lo largo del tiempo.
De esta forma, la sostenibilidad integral (Jimnez Herrero, 2000a, 2000b, 2002) cuenta con una nueva componente que le permite gozar permanentemente de una visin de conjunto para una toma de decisiones holstica, constituyndose entonces en una Sostenibilidad Global, aplicable a cualquier escala y/o proyecto. La siguiente figura representa las tres dimensiones bsicas de la Sostenibilidad y la nueva dimensin, la poltico-institucional en su papel de esfera regulatoria y normativa para que la sostenibilidad, sea aplicable en la prctica, como enfoque integrado de anlisis e interpretacin de la realidad. De esta forma, se busca garantizar una sostenibilidad integral, superando las acciones unilaterales y sectoriales que promueven una sostenibilidad parcial.
Figura 5: Gobernanza orientada a la Sostenibilidad: las Cuatro Esferas. Fuente: OConnor (2006)
En la misma lnea se encuentra la propuesta conocida como el Prisma de la Sostenibilidad promovido por una serie de instituciones como la Sustainable Europe Research Instititute SERI- y Factor 10 Institute, entre otras, instituciones que en 2003 realizaron el encuentro de expertos/as a nivel europeo Governance Sustainable Development, en el marco del Sexto Programa Marco de la Comisin Europea, con el fin de proponer objetivos e indicadores que reflejaran la perspectiva europea del desarrollo sostenible, all se obtuvo el documento de referencia The Pignans Set of Indicators: Carnoules Statement on Integrated Objectives and Indicators for Sustainable Development. El German Wuppertal Institute (comisionados por Amigos de la Tierra para desarrollar una metodologa para el proyecto Europa Sostenible), usa un modelo que se basa en el Prisma de la Sostenibilidad (figura 6), con sus cuatro pilares, en el cual, la dimensin institucional corresponde a los mecanismos y orientaciones, no slo hace referencia a las organizaciones. Esta propuesta tambin define los imperativos que derivan de la Comisin Bruntland, adems que permite el trabajo por indicadores clave de cada dimensin con sus respectivas interdependencias. (Spangenberg, 2001)
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Figura 6: Prisma de a la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: Spangenberg, J. SERI
Otra propuesta, que a la vez es considerada un marco ordenador 2 para el trabajo integrado con indicadores de sostenibilidad, es el modelo socio-ecolgico de Gilberto Gallopn (2006) desarrollado en el marco de la CEPAL3, con el fin de evaluar el desarrollo sostenible y apoyar la definicin de polticas pblicas coherentes (figura 7). Dicho marco ordenador contempla una propuesta sistmica de evaluar los indicadores, superando los enfoques lineales ampliamente usados, como el PER (Presin-Estado-Respuesta) y aborda los indicadores como eslabonamientos a diversas escalas y niveles, a fin de contar con enfoques y soluciones integrados a los problemas complejos a los que se enfrenta el mundo actualmente. Por tanto, es una propuesta para la evaluacin integrada de los avances en materia de desarrollo sostenible, teniendo como punto de partida las dimensiones establecidas por la Comisin de Desarrollo Sostenible de Naciones Unidas (1995, 2001). Este modelo, al igual que el modelo de OConnor, explora las interrelaciones entre los diversos subsistemas. Como afirma Gallopn: El reconocimiento de la existencia de interrelaciones significativas en los sistemas (particularmente en los sistemas socio-ecolgicos) pone en evidencia las limitaciones de los procedimientos usuales (a menudo tan simples como sumar o promediar) para agregar indicadores en un nico ndice. Estos puede ser de utilidad para evaluar progreso, pero difcilmente sirvan para comprender, proveer alertas tempranas o para anticipar. (2006, p. 18).
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Figura 7: Modelo socio-ecolgico. Representa los flujos, interrelaciones o acoplamientos funcionales principales entre los subsistemas. Las flechas recprocas simbolizan influencias recprocas. Fuente: Gallopn 2006.
La propuesta de Robert Prescott-Allen, llamada Barmetro de la Sostenibilidad (figura 8) al igual que el anterior modelo, es un instrumento de evaluacin de la Sostenibilidad. Se basa en el uso de indicadores e ndices y est orientada a la medicin del bienestar de la sociedad y su progreso hacia la Sostenibilidad (Grenier, 1999, p, 89). Cuenta con el aval de la International Union for Conservation of Nature -IUCN-, y relaciona el bienestar humano y el bienestar ecolgico. El bienestar humano se focaliza en el estado del Desarrollo Humano y contiene, por tanto, las dimensiones social, econmica e institucional, mientras que el bienestar ecolgico se centra en el estado del medio ambiente. El barmetro los sita en dos ejes (x y y) y les da igual importancia a cada uno. Cada eje, a su vez, est dividido en cinco niveles para tener mayor flexibilidad y control de la escala (IUCN, 2001). As, considera que el intervalo de 0-20 es insostenible (malo); el de 21-40 es cuasi insostenible (pobre); el de 41-60 es intermedio; el de 61-80 es cuasi sostenible (bueno); y el de 81-100 es Sostenible (muy bueno). El barmetro es flexible y da como resultado indicadores sintticos. No tiene una cantidad predeterminada de indicadores sino que su eleccin es realizada por los analistas, de acuerdo con la posibilidad de construccin de escalas de desempeo, del rea de estudio y de la disponibilidad de informacin (Kronemberger et al., 2008, p. 26).
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Figura 8: Barmetro de la sostenibilidad de Prescott-Allen. Fuente: Kronemberger et al. (2008)
Otro tipo de propuestas, como la de Jimnez Herrero (2000a), es a la vez referencia conceptual del carcter integral de la Sostenibilidad, en el cual vincula el conjunto de relaciones de los sistemas ambientales y humanos. Este modelo tiene el factor comn de las tres dimensiones bsicas de la sostenibilidad, y la cuarta dimensin est muy cercana al sistema polticoinstitucional, al proporcionar el marco normativo global de ideas y valores humanos que condicionan la toma de decisiones, estando pues en relacin directa con la gobernanza. Este modelo parte de definir que la sostenibilidad es un principio (o conjunto de principios) aplicables a los sistemas, pero no es exactamente sinnimo de desarrollo sostenible. Este ltimo concepto incluye objetivos sociales segn determinadas escalas de valores humanos y de necesidades en un proceso abierto que va cambiando en el tiempo y que se va enriqueciendo a s mismo progresivamente. Por ello, afirma el autor que no existe un nico modelo de referencia y de validez universal; de hecho existen mltiples realidades y contextos que dan lugar a diferentes estilos de desarrollo(s) sostenible(s). Estos conceptos, en cualquier caso, estn ms ligados a la idea de cambio que a la nocin de estabilidad, comnmente asociada a sostener un sistema de forma permanente para mantener un determinado estado. Por eso, ambas nociones se entienden mejor como procesos de cambio, adaptacin, autoorganizacin y equilibrios permanentes de los sistemas ecolgicos, econmicos y sociales en evolucin conjunta, donde intervienen aspectos de jerarqua, incertidumbre e ignorancia que se entremezclan con otras consideraciones ticas y culturales (Jimnez Herrero, 2002).
De aqu que la doctrina de la sostenibilidad que ampara las diversas teoras del desarrollo sostenible tenga una perspectiva de integralidad y globalidad. Es decir, la sostenibilidad integral, en la triple dimensin ecolgica, econmica y social, con una envolvente tica (sistema de valores), para dar sentido al desarrollo entendido como un proceso dinmico que se orienta hacia la perdurabilidad de un sistema global conformado por el conjunto de los sistemas humanos y naturales en permanente interaccin. Bajo una envolvente tica, la sostenibilidad se puede representar en forma vectorial para visualizar la resultante de unas fuerzas dinmicas que interactan en las tres dimensiones de la realidad ya mencionadas. (Ver figura 9).
Figura 9: Modelo vectorial de la Sostenibilidad Integral de Jimnez Herrero (2000)
Jimnez Herrero (2002) remarca que: Expresar la nocin de sostenibilidad en forma vectorial, () es un intento de precisar esencia como un proceso dinmico de equilibrios y reequilibrios, en lugar de identificarlo con una ausencia de fuerzas que tienden a alterar una situacin previa ms o menos estabilizada Aqu, los componentes bsicos de direccin, trayectoria, velocidad, etctera, se derivan de la correlacin de fuerzas impulsoras y de resistencia, para establecer las condiciones y capacidad de sostenibilidad. (2002, p. 72) Para ilustrarlo, propone un ejemplo de una aeronave en vuelo (figura 10), la cual alcanza su equilibrio dinmico cuando se igualan las fuerzas (impulsin-resistencia y gravedad-sustentacin). Una vez se logra dicho equilibrio, la programacin de la trayectoria y ajustes, se hacen en funcin de las condiciones iniciales y el ritmo de cambio para mantener las condiciones de vuelo adecuadas. An as, contar con las condiciones mnimas de sostenibilidad (velocidad, impulsin, etctera) y compensar las posibles prdidas para mantener la estabilidad dinmica, depende de numerosos factores que no siempre son identificables y controlables en la evolucin de los sistemas complejos, y, menos an, de los acontecimientos bruscos de carcter contingente e imprevisible por efecto de las sobretensiones acumuladas. () La idea de reequilibrio mediante la compensacin de las prdidas coyunturales y permanentes de sostenibilidad, o descompensacin por las ganancias, se refuerza cuando
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contemplamos la tendencia entrpica de los procesos naturales. (2002, p. 72)
Figura 10: Representacin del equilibrio dinmico en procesos de Sostenibilidad Integral. Ejemplo de aeronave en vuelo hasta alcanzar su punto de equilibrio dinmico. Fuente: Jimnez Herrero (2002)
Jimnez Herrero enfatiza, por consiguiente, que todos estos criterios operativos y sistemas de medicin son un referente prioritario para concretar la forma de hacer sostenible el desarrollo, pero no es suficiente. Un argumento bsico es empezar por cambiar el metabolismo de la sociedad industrial para engranar definitivamente la economa mundial con la ecologa global. Es imprescindible actuar sobre las causas fundamentales de la insostenibilidad. Es decir, sobre los agentes responsables y sus actuales pautas econmicas de produccin-consumo-distribucin, que son ecolgicamente insostenibles porque exceden la capacidad de carga de los ecosistemas; que son socialmente insostenibles porque estn llevando al punto de ruptura las tensiones creadas por la desigualdad; y que tambin son ticamente insostenibles porque el materialismo humano no puede seguir determinando el sentido del progreso. Este modelo permite, por tanto, vislumbrar las mltiples dimensiones de la Sostenibilidad Integral: la ecolgica, la econmica y la social, y una envolvente tica y cultural (sistema de valores), que orienta la dimensin institucional (especialmente en la perspectiva de la gobernanza). La sostenibilidad integral parte de la interaccin de sus diversas dimensiones y
enfatiza que no es posible obtener sostenibilidades parciales debido al carcter global/planetario de la sostenibilidad, que vincula, de forma interdependiente, los fenmenos locales y globales. Por consiguiente, esta esfera tica/cultural/institucional/global envolvente sirve para fijar los lmites en la Sociedad circunscribiendo as sus procesos de Toma de Decisiones. Otro tipo de propuestas, ahora de carcter pedaggico, han sido desarrolladas por la UNESCO (2002) y estn orientadas a facilitar la comprensin holstica de la sostenibilidad como concepto integral, reforzando el pensamiento sistmico y la interdependencia de los diversos subsistemas, con metodologas de fcil aplicacin. De esta forma, la UNESCO plantea el Comps de la Sostenibilidad (figura 11), el cual es una variante de la propuesta realizada por Donella Meadows y Herman Daly (Steele, 2006), cuya diferencia principal radica en que la dimensin institucional (quien decide en la propuesta de la UNESCO) para estos ltimos corresponda al bienestar.
Figura 11: Compas de la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: UNESCO 2002.
El comps de Sostenibilidad requiere que la visin de conjunto se garantice y que se tenga el anlisis interdependiente de las diversas dimensiones para lograr pasos ms acertados en los procesos de toma de decisiones, pero est supeditada como todas las herramientas- a quien(es) la use(n) para garantizar decisiones ms integrales (holsticas). Otro modelo de representacin que tiene la UNESCO sobre las dimensiones de la sostenibilidad, se presenta en la figura 12. Dicho modelo es pedaggico y parte de la complementariedad de cada uno de los subsistemas para tener un solo conjunto, por ello lo plantea como un puzzle, cada pieza es diferente pero imprescindible junto con las otras. La UNESCO (2002) resalta que para lograr un futuro ms sostenible, es necesario contar con una serie de valores o principios, entre los cuales se encuentran:
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Conservacin: Es necesaria para asegurar que los sistemas naturales puedan seguir proporcionando sistemas de apoyo de vida para todos los seres vivos, incluyendo los recursos que sostiene el sistema econmico. Paz y Equidad: Tiene lugar cuando la gente es capaz de vivir cooperativamente y en la armona el uno con el otro y tienen sus necesidades bsicas satisfechas de un modo justo y equitativo. Desarrollo apropiado: Es necesario para que la gente cubra sus necesidades bsicas a largo plazo. El desarrollo inapropiado ignora los vnculos entre la economa y los otros sistemas, como el ambiental. Democracia: Proporciona vas a la gente para tener justa y equitativa gestin de los sistemas naturales, sociales y econmicos.
Figura 12: Dimensiones de la Sostenibilidad con sus respectivos Valores y Principios. Fuente: UNESCO 2002.
Rocuts (2009) por su parte, propone un modelo vectorial (figura 13), que sita espacialmente el subsistema ecolgico, el subsistema social y el subsistema econmico. La cuarta dimensin (poltico-institucional) no se representa como un eje, sino como una esfera de mnimos, es decir, indica los niveles de obligado cumplimiento para cada eje (dimensin). La representacin planteada es vectorial porque cumple las caractersticas bsicas de los mismos: tiene direccin y sentido, lo cual implica que se puede establecer con gran aproximacin el nfasis que se le est dando a cada subsistema, es decir, determinar si la decisin est ms inclinada hacia el subsistema econmico, social o medioambiental.
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En la prctica, el/la decisor/a evala la importancia otorgada a cada dimensin y la sita en el plano cartesiano propuesto, segn la escala sealada en la tabla 1.
Tabla. 1: Equivalencias para determinar configuracin de la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: Elaboracin propia.
Para facilitar la visualizacin de la dimensin poltico-institucional, se representa como una esfera de mnimos4. Por tanto, cualquier decisin-vector que quiera ser aceptable deber, cmo mnimo cumplir con los estndares normativos adoptados (Leyes, Normas, Tratados, y Acuerdos, entre otros) de cada dimensin.
Figura 13: Propuesta vectorial de la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: Elaboracin propia.
Por otra parte, las decisiones deberan aspirar a superar los mnimos establecidos por las Leyes, acercndose al ideal desde el punto de vista de la sostenibilidad integral /Global.
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Para el proceso de toma de decisiones es conveniente delimitar, en lo posible, la subjetividad. Para ello, debern tenerse en cuenta simultneamente, los imperativos bsicos de la sostenibilidad (ambientalmente sano, socialmente justo, econmicamente viable y ticamente vital), adems el objetivo en cualquier decisin deber acercarse lo mximo posible a la solucin ptima5 e integral a nivel de sostenibilidad. Con ese fin, la poltica, como accin humana que se encuentra presente en todos los niveles, permite gobernar o dirigir la toma de decisiones, y en su estado ms puro, trasciende los intereses particulares y se orienta a la consecucin de objetivos provechosos para el conjunto de la sociedad6. As, los mnimos establecidos a cumplir pueden ser siempre superados si se busca el Bien Comn. Para ello, se tiene como marco universal la tica como referente mximo- y la Sostenibilidad integral / Global, como objetivo comn del cual depende la supervivencia a corto y largo plazo- del conjunto del planeta. La dimensin poltico institucional, por tanto, es fundamental, sabiendo que las decisiones marcan tendencias que cambian el equilibrio entre las diversas fuerzas de los subsistemas. Esta dimensin, aparte de brindar el marco normativo que es crucial para promover lo que se debe hacer y regular lo que se tiene que evitar en una sociedad, connota la responsabilidad por las decisiones que se toman y exige al / a la decisor/a a que su voluntad poltica refleje las preocupaciones de la sociedad en general. Con estas herramientas, y aadiendo la base conceptual de las propuestas de la CDS (1995, 2001), UNESCO (2002), Gallopn (2006), OConnor (2006), Spangenberg (2001), Jimnez Herrero (2000a, 2002) y adicionalmente el modelo de Ketola (2007), se propone la siguiente representacin vectorial integral de la sostenibilidad.
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Figura 14: Propuesta vectorial de las cuatro dimensiones de la Sostenibilidad en el marco geomtrico de Ketola (2007) Fuente: Elaboracin propia. Formalmente el octante de esfera o el cubo que se observan en el centro no son una superficie sino una representacin de un punto base a cumplir, pues debajo de dicha zona no se admite nada a lo que se le pueda considerar mnimamente Sostenible.
En la figura 14, se observa una disposicin (de la a a la h) en los vrtices del cubo, los cuales corresponden a la categorizacin basada en la propuesta de Ketola (2007) a fin de ayudar a determinar posibles escenarios de sostenibilidad: a. Suicidio: mnima importancia (responsabilidad) econmica, social y medioambiental b. Ideal: Mxima importancia (responsabilidad) econmica, social y medioambiental. c. Plutocntrico: la importancia (responsabilidad) econmica es mayor que la social y medioambiental. d. Antropocntrico: importancia (responsabilidad) social mayor que la econmica y medioambiental. e. Biocntrico: importancia (responsabilidad) medioambiental mayor que la social y econmica.
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f. Patriarcal: importancia (responsabilidad) econmica y social, mayores que la medioambiental. g. Tecnocntrico: importancia (responsabilidad) econmica y medioambiental, mayores que la social. h. Matriarcal: importancia (responsabilidad) social y medioambiental mayor que la econmica Aadiendo al modelo la envolvente tica de Jimnez Herrero, adems de la cultural, se obtiene la figura 15:
Figura 15: Propuesta vectorial de las cuatro dimensiones de la Sostenibilidad en el marco geomtrico desarrollado por Ketola (2007) y con envolvente tica (Jimnez Herrero) y cultural. Fuente: Elaboracin propia.
Al igual que en el modelo de Jimnez Herrero (2000a, 2000b), la envolvente tica cubre todo el sistema. Dicha envolvente va de la mano de la cultura7, ya que, como indicaba la Conferencia Mundial sobre las Polticas Culturales (MONDIACULT) slo puede asegurarse un desarrollo equilibrado mediante la integracin de los factores culturales en las estrategias para alcanzarlo. As, como afirma el Informe Nuestra Diversidad Creativa (1997), esta dimensin tica y colectiva, es la que viene definida por la cultura en tanto manera de vivir juntos es decir, los valores, funciones, relaciones y vnculos socialmente definidos. Por consiguiente, esta envolvente en el modelo corresponde al aspecto normativo de la Sostenibilidad que determina los mximos posibles en una Sociedad y que orienta, por tanto, los lmites de su accin.
Este modelo demanda de todos los agentes e instituciones la responsabilidad a largo plazo por las decisiones que se toman en el presente. Es oportuno resaltar que frente al acentuado vaco en la Rendicin de Cuentas por las Decisiones que se toman sobre los diversos subsistemas, es importante formular diversos planteamientos cada vez ms propositivos hacia la reorientacin y control de los procesos socioeconmicos, lo cual genere espacios que conduzcan a otra Gobernanza, necesariamente ms justa y equilibrada como respuesta al reto de la Sostenibilidad Integral / Global, que busca el equilibrio dinmico a largo plazo de los sistemas en su conjunto. Como se ha visto, la Sostenibilidad parte del reconocimiento de la existencia de lmites tanto ticos, como naturales, sociales y econmicos, por tanto, conlleva un replanteamiento de los patrones del comportamiento humano, en el que los procesos de toma de decisiones sean ms integrales, con conciencia del presente y con responsabilidad de futuro. Conclusiones
Es posible representar las diversas propuestas y enfoques de la Sostenibilidad, a travs de interpretaciones visuales de los conceptos. La interpretacin visual de la Sostenibilidad ayuda a sintetizar conceptos, a identificar las interacciones entre procesos complejos y a consolidar enfoques hacindolos operativos. Existen mltiples modelos interpretativos de la Sostenibilidad, cada uno de los cuales constituye un enfoque que busca plasmar la importancia que cada autor/a da a las diferentes dimensiones, o a su conjunto. Los modelos han evolucionado al mismo tiempo que lo ha hecho la conceptualizacin de la Sostenibilidad. En un principio comprendan las denominadas tres dimensiones bsicas (social, medioambiental y econmica) y progresivamente se han ido incluyendo a los modelos nuevas dimensiones (Poltico-institucional, tica, Cultural, Global), con lo que se busca dar cuenta de su multidimensionalidad y multifuncionalidad en escenarios de complejidad. La inclusin de la dimensin poltico-institucional, en especial cuando se incorporan elementos de gobernanza, favorece la implantacin de esquemas operativos y garantiza una toma de decisiones ms integral pues condiciona la existencia de un nivel mnimo que debe cumplirse en cada dimensin (teniendo en cuenta que no existen sostenibilidades parciales). Asumiendo que no hay un solo enfoque de la Sostenibilidad, ni reglas universales, ni verdades absolutas, sino que dependiendo del modelo que se tome como referencia, se generarn diferentes propuestas que prioricen determinadas variables, dimensiones, visiones o incluso ideologas. Por ello, la importancia de avanzar en un enfoque sistmico, holstico e integrador que evite los riesgos de contemplar sostenibilidades
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parciales, pues esto promueve acciones aisladas, que afectan tanto a la toma de decisiones como a la formulacin de polticas racionales encaminadas a favorecer los procesos de sostenibilidad en diferentes contextos espaciales y temporales. Referencias Bibliogrficas
Costanza, R.; Patten, B.C. (1995). Defining and predicting sustainability, Ecological Economics, 15, p. 193.196 Fernandez Buey, F. (2000) tica y filosofa poltica. Ediciones Bellaterra, Barcelona. Gallopin G. (2006) Los indicadores de desarrollo sostenible: Aspectos conceptuales y metodolgicos. Ponencia realizada para el Seminario de expertos sobre Indicadores de Sostenibilidad en la formulacin y seguimiento de polticas. Fodepal. Santiago de Chile. Grenier, L. (1999). Conocimiento indgena: Gua para el investigador. Editorial Tecnolgica de Costa Rica y Centro Internacional de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo de Canad, Costa Rica, Ottawa. Guijt, I.; Moiseev, A.; Prescott-Allen, R. (2001). IUCN Resource kit for Sustainability Assessment. IUCN Monitoring and Evaluation Initiative. Hart, M. (2008). A better view of a sustainability community. <http://www.sustainablemeasures.com/Sustainability/ABetterView.html> [Consulta 14/10/2008]
Jimnez Herrero, L.M. (2000a). Desarrollo Sostenible. Transicin hacia la coevolucin global. Madrid, Ediciones Pirmide. Jimnez Herrero, L.M. (2000b). Desarrollo Sostenible: engranando la economa mundial con la ecologa global. Revista de la Consejera de Poltica Territorial y Medio Ambiente del Gobierno de Canarias, nmero 17. Jimnez Herrero, L.M. (2002). La Sostenibilidad como proceso de equilibrio dinmico y adaptacin al cambio. Informacin Comercial Espaola, ICE: Revista de economa, 800, p. 65-84 Ketola, T. (2008). A Holistic Corporate Responsibility Model: Integrating Values, Discourses and Actions, Journal of Business Ethics 80 (3), p. 419-435 Kronemberger, D.M.P., et al. (2008). Desenvolvimento sustentvel no Brasil: uma anlise a partir da aplicao do barmetro da sustentabilidade, Sociedade & Natureza, Uberlndia 20 (1), p. 25-50. Lozano, R. (2008). Envisioning sustainability three-dimensionally, Journal of Cleaner Production 16 (17), p. 1838-1846 Mauerhofer, V. (2008). 3-D Sustainability: An approach for priority setting in situation of conflicting interests towards a Sustainable Development, Ecological Economics 64, (3), p. 496-506 Mebratu, D. (1998). Sustainability and sustainable development: Historical and conceptual review, Environmental Impact Assessment Review 18, p. 493-520 Mitchell, C. (2000). Integrating sustainability in chemical engineering practice and education, Transactions of the institution for Chemical Engineering 78 (B), p. 237 - 242 Navarrete M. (2009) Indicadores de gestin de polticas ambientales para megaciudades. Casos de estudio: Bogot, Madrid, Mxico, Sao Paulo. Tesis Doctoral. OConnor, M. (2006). The Four Spheres framework for sustainability, Ecological Complexity 3 (4), p. 285-292 ODonell, A.; Dansereau, D.; Hall, R. (2002). Knowledge Maps as Scaffolds for Cognitive Processing, Educational Psychology Review 14 (1), p.71-86
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Peattie, K. (1995). Environmental Marketing Management. Meeting the Green Challenge. London, Financial Times. Pitman Publishing. Prez de Cuellar, J. [et al] (1997). Nuestra Diversidad Creativa. Informe de la Comisin Mundial de Cultura y Desarrollo. Coleccin Cultura, desarrollo y sociedad. UNESCO, Pars. Rocuts, A. (2009). Afrontar los Asuntos Globales: Fundamentacin terica y propuesta metodolgica para la creacin de Alianzas Estratgicas entre Organizaciones de la Sociedad Civil. Tesis Doctoral. Schnotz, W. (2002). Towards an Integrated View of Learning from Text and Visual Displays, Educational Psychology Review 14 (1), p. 101-120 Seri, Sustainable Europe Research Instititute & Factor 10 Institute. (2003). Governance Sustainable Development. The Pignans Set of Indicators: Carnoules Statement on Integrated Objectives and Indicators for Sustainable Development. Pignans, France. Shah, P.; Hoeffner, J. (2002). Review of Graph Comprehension Research: Implications for Instruction, Educational Psychology Review 14 (1), p. 47-61 Spangenberg, J.H. (2001). Environmental space and the Prism of Sustainability: frameworks for indicators measuring sustainable development. SERI Sustainable Europe Research Institute Cologne. Steele, R. D. (2006). An Introduction to the AtKisson Accelerator Suite of Multi-stakeholder Sustainable Development Learning, Training, Planning and Assessment Tools. Paper submitted to The Asia-Pacific Programme of Educational Innovation for Development, Annual Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, 6-8 December. Unesco (2008). Towards Sustainable Future en Teaching and Learning for a Sustainable Future. UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014). UNESCO, 2002. www.unesco.org/education/tlsf [Consulta 28/08/2008] Unesco (1982). Declaracin de Mxico sobre las Polticas Culturales. Conferencia Mundial sobre las Polticas Culturales (MONDIACULT), Mxico. Verdi, M; Kulhavy, R. (2002). Learning With Maps and Texts: An Overview, Educational Psychology Review 14(1), p. 27-46
Notas:
1 El orden de los subsistemas depende de los autores en cuestin. Por ejemplo, Costanza y Patten (1995) plantean que el sistema econmico tiende a ser mayor en escala que la poblacin, pues suele durar varias generaciones, mientras que el percibir el subsistema econmico inserto en el subsistema social, es como lo analizan una serie de autores como M. Hart (2008), C. Mitchell (2000); D. Mebratu (1998) y K. Peattie (1995), entre otros. 2 Como menciona Gallopn (2006), los indicadores son ms tiles si estn recopilados en un marco coherente (UNEP-CDS 1995), de esta forma el autor menciona los principales Marcos utilizados especficamente para indicadores de desarrollo sostenible: Marco PER (Presin-Estado-Respuesta); Marco de la CDS y Marcos sistmicos como el del Grupo Balaton, el de H. Bossel, el de Monet y el Sistema Socioecolgico, establecido en el marco de la evaluacin de la Sostenibilidad por la CEPAL. 3 La CEPAL, apoyada por los Pases Bajos, ha desarrollado a travs la Divisin de Desarrollo Sostenible y Asentamientos Humanos de la CEPAL el proyecto ESALC (Evaluacin de la Sostenibilidad en Amrica Latina y el Caribe). Ver documentos, Evaluaciones y Bases de Datos en: http://www.eclac.cl/esalc/ [Consulta 17/10/2008]. 4 Para ser matemticamente preciso el modelo, especficamente se tratara de un octante de esfera (no una esfera entera), ya que considera slo la parte positiva de cada uno de los ejes de coordenadas propuestos, derivado de la definicin y condicionantes dados para que se tomen decisiones que sean consideradas Sostenibles, por esta razn los dems octantes, aunque puedan ser relevantes para ser analizados no se toman en consideracin. 5 La solucin S1 es ptima cuando no existe otra solucin S2 tal que mejore un objetivo sin empeorar otro Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009 Pgina 21 de 190
6 Este es el fundamento de la Poltica segn plante Aristteles. Para profundizar se recomienda el anlisis entre tica y Poltica, realizado por Francisco Fernndez Buey, en su libro tica y filosofa poltica. 7 Segn la Conferencia Mundial sobre las Polticas Culturales (MONDIACULT), que tuvo lugar en Mxico D.F., en 1982: En su sentido ms amplio, la cultura puede considerarse actualmente como el conjunto de los rasgos distintivos, espirituales y materiales, intelectuales y afectivos que caracterizan a una sociedad o un grupo social. Ella engloba, adems de las artes y las letras, los modos de vida, los derechos fundamentales al ser humano, los sistemas de valores, las tradiciones y las creencias.
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Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

Brbara Sureda1, J.J. de Felipe2 , I. Cruz3
1,2
B. Sureda
Profesores Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad-Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya EUETIT, Colon 1, 08222 Barcelona, Espaa Web: http://www.catunesco.upc.edu
3
Investigadora Asociada Postdoctoral Harte Research Institute For Gulf of Mexico Studies 6300 Ocean Dr Unit 5869. Corpus Christi, Tx 78412, USA e-mail1: barbara.sureda@upc.edu e-mail2: felipe@mmt.upc.edu e-mail3: ivonne.cruz@gmail.com
Resumen
Este artculo tiene como objetivo bsico presentar la estructura y objetivos del Informe de Sostenibilidad de Catalua 2006, publicado en diciembre de 2008, el cual realiza una descripcin y evaluacin tanto de la situacin actual como de las tendencias en materia de desarrollo sostenible de Catalua, hasta el ao 2006. Ha sido desarrollado por el grupo de investigacin en Medida y Modelizacin de la Sostenibilidad de la Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad de la Universidad Politcnica de Catalua. Los indicadores seleccionados se han clasificado en cuatro grandes grupos: ambientales, sociales, econmicos e institucionales. Se han analizado un total de 465 variables e indicadores, propuestos por un grupo de expertos en un proceso abierto, de los cuales se han escogido finalmente un total de 262. Este informe adems valora los avances que ha hecho el conjunto de la sociedad catalana hacia la sostenibilidad desde una perspectiva sistmica. Palabras clave: Sostenibilidad, medida de la sostenibilidad, indicadores.
* Title:Sustainability Report for Catalonia
Abstract: The present work has the aim to present the structure and main objectives of the elaboration of the 2006 Sustainability Report for Catalonia. It is a description and evaluation of the present trends and pressing situations relevant for sustainable development in Catalonia, until 2006. The report has been developed by the research group on Sustainability Measurement and
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Modeling of the UNESCO Chair in Sustainability at the Polytechnic University of Catalonia. Regional (Catalan) national (Spanish) and European data bases have been used. The selected indicators have been classified in four wider groups: environmental, social, economic and institutional. A total of 465 variables and indicators were proposed by a group of experts through an open-ended process and have been analyzed. As a result, a total of 262 were finally chosen. Besides conducting the follow-up of a series of indicators, the report evaluates the goals achieved by the Catalan society towards sustainability from a systemic perspective. Keywords: Sustainability, Sustainability Measurement, Indicators.
1 Introduccin
El presente artculo presenta el informe de investigacin aplicada publicado en el ao 2008 sobre la sostenibilidad en Catalua Informe de Sostenibilidad en Catalua. 2006 (De Felipe, Sureda, Cruz, 2008). El trabajo lo realiz el grupo de investigacin en Medida y Modelizacin de la Sostenibilidad de la Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad de la Universidad Politcnica de Catalua, grupo multidisciplinar formado por ms de quince miembros, con la colaboracin de varias instituciones regionales. El informe tiene como objetivo bsico hacer una descripcin y una evaluacin tanto de la situacin actual como de las tendencias en materia de desarrollo sostenible en Catalua durante el 2006. Para hacerlo se han seleccionado las variables e indicadores ms relevantes disponibles, tanto en bases de datos regionales (catalanas) como nacionales (espaolas) y europeas, durante el periodo 2000-2005 y en algunos casos el 2006. Adems de realizar el seguimiento de una serie de indicadores, este informe valora los avances que ha hecho el conjunto de la sociedad catalana hacia la sostenibilidad desde una perspectiva sistmica, lo cual permitir visualizar las interconexiones que configuran la compleja trama de la sostenibilidad y disear las polticas de desarrollo sostenible ms adecuadas.
2 Seleccin y clasificacin de los indicadores

Los indicadores utilizados en este informe se han seleccionado de acuerdo con los criterios siguientes: i. Claridad j. Relevancia k. Facilidad de interpretacin y capacidad de comunicacin l. Comparacin con estndares de la Unin Europea y de Espaa m. Facilidad de obtencin, implementacin y clculo Se han analizado un total de 465 variables e indicadores propuestos por un grupo de expertos en
un proceso abierto, de los cuales se han escogido finalmente un total de 262. Los indicadores seleccionados se han clasificado en cuatro grupos:

Indicadores ambientales Indicadores sociales Indicadores institucionales Indicadores econmicos
Los indicadores ambientales reflejan y evalan el uso de recursos, la generacin de residuos y los impactos derivados de los procesos de produccin, en los mbitos local, regional y global. Los indicadores sociales reflejan y evalan la distribucin de la poblacin, la inmigracin, la riqueza, el estado del bienestar, caracterizado por el nivel de educacin y asistencia sanitaria, y el estado de la cultura catalana en relacin con las mltiples culturas que conviven en el pas, as como los procesos hacia una sociedad ms justa y equitativa, y por lo tanto ms sostenible. Los indicadores institucionales reflejan y evalan las acciones derivadas de las diferentes polticas de las diversas administraciones e instituciones hacia la sostenibilidad. Los indicadores econmicos reflejan y evalan la situacin econmica del pas en relacin con el paradigma de la economa sostenible, en la cual el crecimiento es debido a factores cualitativos de productividad, valor aadido, etc. y no a factores cuantitativos como la poblacin ocupada, la subocupacin, etc., en definitiva, una economa ms desmaterializada con menor consumo de recursos y generacin de residuos, y por lo tanto con menos impactos, que consume menos productos y ofrece ms servicios. Los 262 indicadores seleccionados corresponden a 103 indicadores ambientales, 45 indicadores sociales, 41 indicadores institucionales y 73 indicadores econmicos. Es importante mencionar que la diferencia en el nmero de indicadores seleccionados se debe a la cantidad y calidad de los datos, y a la informacin a la que se tuvo acceso durante la elaboracin del Informe. Para analizar de forma global el estado y los progresos hacia la sostenibilidad en Catalua, se han escogido un total 29 indicadores, los cuales se han analizado siguiendo el marco conceptual sistmico ESALC desarrollado por la CEPAL (Gallopn, 2006).
3 Indicadores ambientales
Los indicadores de sostenibilidad ambiental reflejan y evalan el uso de recursos: energa, agua, uso del suelo, generacin de residuos, as como los impactos ambientales derivados de los procesos de produccin, tanto en el mbito local, regional, como global. Los impactos ambientales se dividen en tres apartados: estado de la calidad ambiental, estado de la biodiversidad y cambio climtico. En la tabla 1 se relacionan los indicadores escogidos para esta dimensin por temas y subtemas.
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TEMA USO DE RECURSOS
SUBTEMA 1 Energa
SUBTEMA 2 Energa primaria
Indicadores Consumo bruto de energa primaria Consumo de energa primaria por habitante Consumo de energa primaria por fuente de energa y porcentaje por fuente sobre el total
Energa final
Consumo bruto de energa final Consumo bruto de energa final por habitante Consumo de energa final por sectores (industrial, domstico, transporte, servicios) o porcentaje por sectores sobre el total Consumo de energa final por fuente (renovables, electricidad, gas, productos petrolferos, carbn) o porcentaje por fuentes sobre el total Por cada sector, porcentaje por fuente Consumo domstico elctrico medio por habitante y ao Consumo de energa elctrica en barras de central (EBC)
Produccin
Produccin total de energa primaria Produccin de energa primaria por fuente (nuclear, biomasa, solar, trmica, etc.) Produccin de energa elctrica por fuente Produccin de energa elctrica por fuente renovable Produccin bruta de energa elctrica en rgimen ordinario (por tipo de central y total) Ventas a la red de las centrales elctricas de rgimen especial (por tipo de central y total) Produccin de energa elctrica por habitante (kWh por habitante y ao) Produccin de energa elctrica por cogeneracin
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Produccin de energa elctrica por cogeneracin por tipo de energa trmica Indicador de calidad del subministro elctrico = tiempo de interrupcin equivalente a potencia instalada (TIEPI) Importaciones / Exportaciones Importaciones netas de energa primaria Importaciones netas de energa primaria por fuente y pas Importaciones netas de energa final Importaciones netas de energa final por fuente Importaciones/Exportaciones de energa elctrica Grado de dependencia energtica Grado de dependencia energtica
Grado de autoabastecimiento energtico Intensidad energtica Intensidad energtica de la energa primaria = Consumo de TEP por 1.000 de PIB a precio de 2005 Intensidad de energa primaria con paridad de poder adquisitivo Intensidad de energa final por sectores Intensidad energtica de la energa final = Consumo de TEP por 1.000 de PIB a precio de 2005 Intensidad de carbono Energa de fuentes renovables Relacin entre las emisiones de CO 2 producidas por parte de los sectores energticos y el PIB Porcentaje entre la produccin de energa primaria a partir de fuentes renovables y el consumo de energa primaria Porcentaje entre la produccin de energa primaria a partir de fuentes renovables y el consumo de energa elctrica Consumo de energa primaria renovable por fuente Potencia solar FV instalada
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Nmero de instalaciones solares FV aisladas Nmero de instalaciones solares FV conectadas a red Tasa de crecimiento de potencia solar FV Potencia elica instalada Nmero de parques elicos Tasa de crecimiento de la potencia elica instalada Precios Evolucin de los precios medios de electricidad Evolucin de los precios medios de gas natural Evolucin de los precios medios de gasolina Evolucin de los precios medios de diesel Transporte Consumo de productos petrolferos lquidos para automocin Nm. de vehculos por tipo Consumo energtico por pasajero por km en coche kWh/hogar Uso y consumo de materiales y generacin de residuos Generacin de residuos Generacin y origen de los residuos
Residuos municipales
Generacin y composicin de residuos municipales Generacin anual de residuos municipales por cpita Tratamiento de los residuos municipales Deposicin en vertederos de residuos biodegradables
Residuos industriales
Generacin y composicin de los residuos industriales Tratamiento-Valorizacin de los residuos industriales
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Establecimientos industriales que formalizan la declaracin anual de residuos industriales Residuos radioactivos Generacin y topologa de los residuos radioactivos Consumo de materiales Agua Huella ecolgica Ciclo integral de agua dulce en Catalua Disponibilidad y uso de recursos 3 hdricos renovables por m habitante y ao Evolucin del uso del agua en los hogares por habitante (litros/habitante/da) Usos del agua por sectores Uso de agua segn tecnologa de riego Estado del saneamiento Estado del agua superficial y costanera Evolucin de la calidad de las aguas de bao segn la directiva 76/160/CEE Evolucin de la extraccin y consumo de agua envasada Evolucin del precio medio del agua para uso domstico Uso del suelo Superficie urbanizada Superficie forestal total Superficie agrcola Superficie forestal privada Aprovechamientos forestales autorizados Incremento anual neto del volumen de madera con corteza Densidad de poblacin en municipios litorales Construcciones residenciales en los municipios del litoral CALIDAD AMBIENTAL Y SALUD Calidad ambiental Calidad del aire y salud urbano Inmisiones de gases
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Saneamiento de suelos contaminados Nm. de emplazamientos identificados como contaminados Emplazamientos contaminados por tipo de actividad Emplazamientos contaminados: contaminantes principales Emplazamientos contaminados: por etapa de gestin Mortalidad infantil ndice de dependencia senil Envejecimiento de la poblacin (%) BIODIVERSIDAD reas protegidas Superficie del sistema de espacios protegidos Superficie terrestre de espacios protegidos en el litoral Gestin de espacios protegidos en el litoral: superficie en planes especiales de proteccin o delimitacin Especies amenazadas por tipo de especie y grado de amenaza Poblacin de especies protegidas seleccionadas Nm. de especies no autctonas (exticas) Tendencias temporales de las diferentes agrupaciones de pjaros desde la finalizacin del trabajo de campo del ltimo atlas de pjaros nidificantes (2002) hasta la primavera de 2006 Indicadores de evolucin de las mariposas Superficie afectada por incendios forestales (arbolada y no arbolada) Causa de los incendios forestales Prdidas ocasionadas por los incendios forestales Superficie reforestada o aforestada con inversiones o ayudas pblicas Cambio de temperatura del aire de superficie Cambio de las precipitaciones Nivel del mar en Barcelona Temperatura del mar en Tortosa Emisiones GEH
Salud
Especies en peligro de extincin
Incendios forestales
CAMBIO CLIMTICO
Cambio climtico
Emisiones
Tabla 1 : Indicadores ambientales
4 Indicadores sociales
Los indicadores de la dimensin social evalan tanto el estado social del pas, a partir de la
situacin y la evolucin demogrfica, como la equidad; mediante indicadores de pobreza, de igualdad de gnero y de ocupacin laboral. Tambin consideran el estado de salud de la poblacin, el nivel de educacin y la situacin del cataln, como caracterstica cultural propia de nuestro pas, adems de la seguridad, la cohesin social y las condiciones de acceso a la vivienda. En la tabla 2 se pueden observar los indicadores escogidos para esta dimensin, por temas y subtemas.
TEMA EQUIDAD SUBTEMA Pobreza Indicadores Tasa de riesgo de pobreza Hogares con dificultades para llegar a fin de mes Poblacin que vive por debajo del umbral de pobreza Gnero Discriminacin salarial Tasa de ocupacin de las mujeres Tasa de paro de las mujeres Presencia de mujeres en la poltica ndice de desarrollo de gnero Ocupacin Tasa de paro Temporalidad laboral Tasa de paro de los jvenes (de 16 a 24 aos) (%) Tasa de ocupacin de la poblacin activa mayor (de 55 a 64 aos) Tasa de paro de larga duracin (1 ao y ms) Accidentes de trabajo con baja laboral cada 100.000 ocupados Estado de Percepcin del estado de salud salud ndice de masa corporal Morbididad atribuible a la contaminacin del medio ambiente Esperanza de vida al nacer Esperanza de vida libre de incapacidades Envejecimiento Mortalidad infantil ndice de dependencia senil Envejecimiento de la poblacin (%) Nivel educativo Nivel de instruccin de la poblacin Porcentaje de desercin escolar (de 18 a 24 aos) con educacin secundaria como mnimo Poblacin entre 20 y 24 aos que ha finalizado como mnimo el nivel 3 de la CINE-1997 (2n ciclo de la educacin secundaria) Poblacin entre 18 y 24 aos que ha dejado prematuramente los estudios y que ha obtenido como mximo el nivel 2 de la CINE-1997 (1a etapa de la educacin secundaria) Uso del cataln Conocimiento del cataln Uso exclusivo del cataln Uso lingstico de otras lenguas
SALUD
EDUCACIN Y CULTURA
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DEMOGRAFIA Cambio poblacional Poblacin total Poblacin total por grupos de edad Tasa de natalidad Poblacin por nacionalidades Tasa de mortalidad Migracin interna Residentes extranjeros Tasa de fecundidad Tasas de extranjeros que habitan en viviendas por nacionalidad, actividad, paro y sexo VIVIENDA SEGURIDAD Condiciones Justicia y violencia Proporcin de centros por comunidades autnomas y tipo de poblacin atendida Nmero de personas detenidas por 1.000 habitantes Nmero de personas condenadas por 1.000 habitantes Nmero de muertes violentas por 100.000 habitantes Nmero de casos de violencia de gnero Porcentaje de mujeres muertas por muerte violenta Asociacionismo
COHESIN SOCIAL
Identidad
Tabla 2: Indicadores sociales
5 Indicadores institucionales
Unos de los objetivos del desarrollo sostenible es avanzar hacia la equidad social, mantener la integridad ecolgica y asegurar la prosperidad econmica, complementado con el desarrollo y el apoyo de capacidades institucionales suficientes parar conseguirlo. El punto de partida para plantear la dimensin institucional es considerar la democracia como un medio necesario para llegar al desarrollo sostenible que involucre a todos los actores sociales, con el objetivo de avanzar hacia una ciudadana participativa que fortalezca los procesos polticos y se convierta en un medio para la transicin hacia una democracia de los ciudadanos. En relacin con la seleccin de los indicadores, es primordial considerar la democracia como sistema de gobierno y el modelo de desarrollo de Catalua, intentando identificar indicadores que muestren la manera como el proceso incorpora nuevos actores o mecanismos con la finalidad de conseguir mayor pluralidad y diversidad para alcanzar el desarrollo sostenible. La propuesta de indicadores realizada intenta reflejar la situacin actual y evolutiva respecto de la cultura cvica democrtica (participacin electoral y participacin ciudadana), la satisfaccin
de las demandas y necesidades expresadas por los ciudadanos (confianza en las instituciones y los polticos) y el acceso de los ciudadanos a la informacin pblica. Los indicadores institucionales son diferentes a los de las dimensiones social, econmica o ambiental. Desde un punto de vista metodolgico, una parte de los indicadores incorporan el anlisis de informacin cualitativa a partir de encuestas de opinin representativas en el mbito de Catalua. Pese a que ello hace ms difcil la comparacin con variables que provengan de otras fuentes, la disponibilidad de largas series de datos nos permite observar las tendencias estructurales y los cambios coyunturales en la evolucin de los indicadores. Tambin se debe sealar que la principal limitacin para la elaboracin de indicadores institucionales y sus interrelaciones es la disponibilidad de datos y de informacin, lo cual reduce la posibilidad de elaborar ciertos indicadores para mostrar otros aspectos del desarrollo y de la capacidad institucional. La tabla 3 muestra los indicadores agrupados por temas y subtemas para la dimensin institucional.
TEMA CAMBIO TECNOLGICO SUBTEMA Especializacin Gasto en I+D TIC Indicadores Nmero de patentes otorgadas por milln de habitantes Gasto total en I+D (% PIB) Gasto privado en I+D (% PIB) Nmero de usuarios de Internet por cada 100 personas Nmero de ordenadores por cada 100 personas Centros industriales certificados con EMAS Empresas certificadas con ISO 14001 Educacin (% PIB) Sanidad (% PIB) Proteccin social (% PIB) I+D pblicos (% PIB) Medio ambiente (% PIB) Deuda pblica (% PIB) Distribucin de la AOD Ayuda a la cooperacin y ayuda al tercer mundo Nmero de organizaciones existentes en Catalua Nmero de organizaciones federadas (2 nivel) Indicadores segundo nivel
Certificaciones
GASTO PBLICO
DEUDA PBLICA COOPERACIN Y SOLIDARIDAD INTERNACIONAL
Tipologas de cooperacin Sociedad civil
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RESPONSABILIDAD Consumo SOCIAL responsable tica empresarial GOBERNANZA Y DEMOCRACIA Participacin electoral Crecimiento medio de ventas por comunidades autnomas Ventas en pases europeos Afiliacin al Pacto mundial Participacin/abstencin electoral Abstencin en las elecciones al Parlamento de Catalua Abstencin en las elecciones al Congreso de Diputados de Catalua Abstencin en las elecciones municipales de Catalua Abstencin en las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo Valoracin de las instituciones Valoracin de los polticos Participacin ciudadana Grado de satisfaccin con la democracia Inters por la poltica Participacin poltica no electoral Pertenencia a grupos o asociaciones Capacidad institucional para la sostenibilidad (*) Implantacin de agendas 21 locales Cooperacin y sostenibilidad global Grado de cumplimiento de la normativa ambiental Evaluaciones de impacto ambiental BUEN GOBIERNO Acceso a informacin pblica Equipamiento TIC en los hogares Uso del ordenador y de Internet de los usuarios habituales Interaccin con las administraciones Servicios interactivos y banda ancha en los ayuntamientos Nmero de bibliotecas por cada 10.000 habitantes Actuaciones de control al gobierno del sndico Valoracin positiva de la labor de los gobiernos Pgina 34 de 190 Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009
Control de las instituciones
Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua Tabla 3: Indicadores institucionales
6 Indicadores econmicos
Los indicadores econmicos analizados estn divididos en tres grandes mbitos: indicadores econmicos y de competitividad, indicadores de productividad y valor aadido e indicadores sectoriales. Los indicadores econmicos y de competitividad muestran la magnitud macroeconmica de Catalua, el producto interior bruto (PIB) y la composicin y distribucin de ste entre la poblacin. Si el crecimiento econmico de una regin o pas se hace a partir de una economa desmaterializada, basada en el conocimiento y la creatividad y no en el consumo de bienes, sino en el de servicios, y si adems los beneficios del crecimiento econmico conllevan un aumento de la renta en todos los estratos de la poblacin, podemos decir que estamos en gran medida ante una economa que avanza hacia un modelo sostenible. Los indicadores de productividad y valor aadido nos muestran dos de los tres parmetros que forman el PIB, la productividad laboral y la inflacin; el otro factor, la ocupacin laboral, se puede encontrar en el apartado de indicadores sociales. Adems podemos analizar la balanza de pagos y la situacin del sector industrial de alta tecnologa como indicador de una economa que avanza hacia la sostenibilidad. Los indicadores sectoriales analizan con ms detalle diferentes sectores econmicos relevantes en la economa catalana: energa, industria, turismo, transporte, agricultura, pesca y residencial. Cabe destacar la importancia de poder disponer en un futuro de indicadores de economa ambiental para la toma de decisiones (por ejemplo, el valor de los servicios ambientales), de los cuales an no existe informacin o bien hay muy poca. Los indicadores analizados se muestran en la tabla 4.
TEMA ECONMICOS Y DE COMPETITIVIDAD SUBTEMA 1 PIB SUBTEMA 2 Indicadores PIB real en euros constantes y corrientes PIB real por cpita PIB real por cpita en paridad de poder adquisitivo Estructura sectorial del PIB Renta disponible bruta familiar
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PRODUCTIVIDAD Y VALOR AADIDO Productividad Productividad laboral por trabajador ocupado Productividad laboral por trabajador ocupado con paridad de poder adquisitivo Exportaciones e importaciones (balanza comercial en % del PIB) Exportaciones de productos industriales de nivel tecnolgico alto (% segn exportaciones totales) Balanza comercial de productos industriales de nivel tecnolgico alto (% del PIB) ndice de precios al consumo (inflacin) Inversin en activos materiales a la industria (% del VAB industrial) Formacin bruta de capital en bienes de equipo y otros (% PIB)
Exportaciones e importaciones
Valor aadido
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SECTORIAL Energa Industria Ecoeficiencia Ecoeficiencia Evolucin VAB energa VAB industria Consumo total de energa en el sector industrial Consumo de energa sector industrial (total/consumo energa total) Consumo de energa sector industrial (carbn/consumo energa total) Consumo de energa sector industrial (productos petrolferos/consumo energa total) Consumo de energa sector industrial (gas/consumo energa total) Consumo de energa sector industrial (electricidad/consumo energa total) Valor aadido bruto al coste de los factores Entrada turistas extranjeros Llegada de turistas extranjeros por tipologa de alojamiento Llegada de turistas extranjeros por va de acceso Llegada de turistas extranjeros por tipo de organizacin del viaje Gasto declarado de los turistas espaoles en Catalua Capacidad de alojamiento Trabajadores en el turismo Gasto medio por turista extranjero Transporte Distribucin modal Vehculos-km de carretera y da Viajeros-km ferrocarril Viajeros-aeronave Viajeros-nave Toneladas mercancas-km carretera Toneladas mercancas-km ferrocarril Toneladas mercancasRevista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009 Pgina 37 de 190
Turismo
Ecoeficiencia General
B. Sureda
Evolucin del gasto de los hogares Evolucin de los turismos por hogar kWh/hogar tep/hogar Residuos toneladas/hogar m3 agua/hogar
Tabla 4: Indicadores econmicos
7 Anlisis de los indicadores

Se ha realizado un anlisis de todos los indicadores detallados en los apartados anteriores. A modo de ejemplo se expone a continuacin el anlisis realizado de los indicadores sociales, concretamente del tema salud, subtema envejecimiento, indicador mortalidad infantil:
Tasa de mortalidad infantil (nacidos vivos muertos antes del primer ao de vida por mil nacidos vivos)
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Catalua
Espaa
UE-15
Figura 1: Mortalidad infantil. Fuente: Idescat, INE, Eurostat.
Breve anlisis: Algunos indicadores pueden ser sensibles a ms de una situacin o fenmeno. Por ejemplo, la tasa de mortalidad infantil es un indicador del estado de salud de la poblacin, pero tambin es sensible al desarrollo social de un pas. El ndice de mortalidad infantil seala la cantidad de nios que mueren antes de cumplir un ao por cada mil que nacen vivos. Sin embargo, puede no ser especfico respecto de ninguna medida sanitaria concreta, ya que la reduccin de la tasa puede ser consecuencia de numerosos factores relacionados con el desarrollo social y econmico. En Catalua, este ndice se ha mantenido siempre por debajo de los valores de Espaa y de la
media de la UE. Desde un valor de 8,4 para el ao 1985, los valores han continuado bajando hasta el 2,7 del 2005, frente a un valor medio de la UE de 4,5.
8 Anlisis sistmico de Catalua

Adems de realizar el anlisis de todos los indicadores detallados en los apartados anteriores, se ha realizado un anlisis sistmico del estado y desarrollo de Catalua, aplicando el marco conceptual denominado sistema socio ecolgico, desarrollado por Gallopn en el 2006 en el proyecto Evaluacin de la Sostenibilidad en Amrica Latina y el Caribe, ESALC, por encargo de la Divisin de Desarrollo Sostenible y Asentamientos Humanos de la Comisin Econmica para Amrica Latina y el Caribe de las Naciones Unidas (UNCEPAL). Este anlisis facilita la obtencin de una visin sistmica e integral del estado y proceso de desarrollo de una regin, as como de las dinmicas motrices poblacionales, econmicas, sociales, territoriales, y sus impactos asociados, tanto a escala local como global.El concepto de desarrollo sostenible denota un proceso que debe ser sostenible conjuntamente en las diferentes dimensiones sociales, ambientales, econmicas, culturales, institucionales, etc. La naturaleza multidimensional del concepto requiere usar un marco conceptual integrado y sistmico en vez de uno sectorial y lineal (Gallopn, 2006).
Referencias bibliogrficas
De Felipe, J.J.; Sureda, B. y Cruz, I. (2008). Informe de Sostenibilitat a Catalunya. Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcino Solucions Grfiques. Jimnez, L.; Prieto, F. y Riechmann, J. (2005). Sostenibilitat en Espaa 2005. Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad en Espaa, Mundi-Prensa libros. Feliu, A. Fundaci Frum Ambiental. (2005). Catalunya 2005 Informe sobre Medi Ambient i Desenvolupament Sostenible. Generalitat de Catalunya. Departament de Medi Ambient i Habitatge. Gallopn, A. (2006). Los Indicadores de Desarrollo Sostenible: Aspectos Conceptuales yMetodolgicos, FODEPAL, Santiago de Chile.
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Nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation analysis in two models of sustainable development

Fabiola Angulo1, Gerard Olivar2, Gustavo A. Osorio3 and Luz S. Velsquez4
F. Angulo et al.
Percepcin y Control Inteligente (PCI) Instituto de Estudios Ambientales IDEA of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia Campus Palogrande, Manizales, Colombia e-mail1: fangulog@unal.edu.co, e-mail2: golivart@unal.edu.co, e-mail3: gaosoriol@unal.edu.co, e-mail4: bioluzve@hotmail.com
Summary
We show in this document two mathematical models of development. Namely, we state two systems of nonlinear differential equations with state variables which regard to ecosystem, social and economic dimensions. We analyze nonlinear dynamics through bifurcation theory and state space simulations. Complex nonlinear systems including variables from ecosystem, social and economic dimensions show that, depending on the parameter values and initial conditions, different patterns can be obtained. Some of these patterns are related to fast decay of the exhaustible resources. Thus, also fast sustainable actions must be taken into account to prevent ecological disasters. Keywords: Sustainability modeling, Bifurcations, Nonlinear dynamics
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1 Introduction
Nontrivial conclusions can be stated from the analysis of systems of nonlinear differential equations which model realistic processes. Several development models have been studied from the system dynamics framework1. Usually, bifurcation theory cannot be applied to these models and many specific nonlinear phenomena remain hidden. Development can be studied in the framework of indicators, variables, components, and dimensions. In this paper we regard to key variables regarding ecosystem, social and economic dimensions. We analyze two models. In the first (oversimplified) one, we find the equilibrium points and their stability, and we study codimension-one and codimension-two bifurcations. As it will be shown, equilibrium points coalescence and disappearance, and nonlinear oscillations are found through limit point and Hopf bifurcations. In the second mathematical model we study a more complex system with five state variables related to the three dimensions mentioned above. 1.1 Bifurcation theory Simulations of systems of nonlinear differential equations can be performed with numerical methods such as Runge-Kutta, or more elaborated schemes. When the numerical results must be shown, several options are available: time waveforms (spatial variables versus time), phase diagrams (plots in the coordinates space, or projections on a lower-dimensional state space), or bifurcation diagrams. Bifurcation diagrams can be computed regarding variation of one parameter (codimension-one bifurcations) or with the variation of two parameters (codimensiontwo bifurcations). Codimension-one bifurcation diagrams usually include one meaningful state variable and one parameter, while codimension-two bifurcation diagrams show bifurcation curves and bifurcation points in a two-dimensional parameter space. Generic codimension-one bifurcations are the saddle-node (denoted by LP in the figures of this paper) and Hopf (denoted by H). Basically, the saddle-node bifurcation regards to disappearance of two equilibrium points as a parameter is varied. Instead, Hopf bifurcation regards to the appearance of sustained oscillations (also called periodic orbits or limit cycles) as a parameter is varied. Generic codimension-two bifurcations can be classified into five different classes: Bautin, Cusp, Bodganov-Takens, Zero-Hopf and Hopf-Hopf. Specific characteristics of these bifurcations can be found in the book of Kuznetsov2. These codimension-two bifurcation points act as organization centers in the sense that close to these parameter values, many sorts of dynamic behavior can be found.
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2 Two-dimensional mathematical model

In this section we analyze a two dimensional model corresponding to a development system of a sort of primitive human community3. The authors realize that it is an oversimplified model, but it has been shown to explain the main development features of the inhabitants of the Pascua Island. Basically, it is assumed that the survival of the human community is due to an exhaustible resource (wood from trees in a forest) and an inexhaustible resource (land). For the growth of the forest, it is also assumed that the forest has a finite carrying capacity, and that below a certain threshold, the forest is unable to recover. Regarding the human population, it is assumed that it grows when the utility from wood and land exceeds some average value and it decays when the utility is below this average value. Taking into account these assumptions, we can formulate a two-dimensional system of nonlinear differential equations with the trees and human populations. Details can be found in the paper by DAlessandro4. Concretely the system of nonlinear differential equations is
(1)
where variable S regards to tree population in the forest, L regards human population, and the rest of symbols are system parameters. Different stable and unstable equilibrium points can be computed. Its existence depends on the specific parameter values. Trivial equilibrium points are:
(2)
At each one, either the human or the tree population is zero. Moreover, two additional non-trivial points can exist for some parameter values. The algebraic expressions for the non-trivial equilibrium points are rather complicated and thus they are not included in this document. At these two additional points, both the tree population and the human population are non-zero. Through bifurcation numerical simulations we can observe that these non-trivial points are created in a saddle-node bifurcation (LP). One of the equilibrium points is stable and the other is
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unstable. The stable one losses stability in a further (supercritical) Hopf bifurcation, where nonlinear oscillations are created (see Figure 1). We computed several bifurcation diagrams with all the available parameters, and we always observed the same mechanism. Regarding codimension-two phenomena, we continued the Hopf bifurcation in two parameters and a curve of Hopf bifurcations was obtained. Some initial computations show that this curve can be a degenerated curve of codimension-two Bautin (GH) points.
Figure 1: Codimension-one bifurcation diagram, when parameter (technological parameter) is varied.
3 Five-dimensional mathematical model

In this section we consider a more complex model including three extra state variables , and . They are related to technological development, land fertility and economic welfare respectively. Thus it can be considered as a better approximation to a development system.
(3)
Computing all equilibrium points in this new system is a heavy task, and some preliminary analysis shows that there are at least twelve different cases depending on the parameter values. Also, stability regards to a five-dimensional jacobian, and it must be computed through symbolic computation software. In this paper we only show several dynamical patterns depending on initial conditions of the state variables. Figure 2 shows that depending on the initial values of the state variables, there
totally different dynamic behavior is obtained. The first pattern corresponds to initial people growth and forest decay, followed by a forest total recovery with decay of human people. The second pattern corresponds to chaotic oscillations after an initial growth and forest decay. The third pattern shows that the forest is finally lost although some human community survives. Transitory trajectories in the third pattern show the following evolution:

Phase 1: Population growth and forest reduction. Phase 2: First (small) oscillations of population and forest. Phase 3: Seemingly convergence to an equilibrium point. Phase 4: Evolution to a new seemingly equilibrium point with forest reduction. Phase 5: Second (big) oscillations of population and forest. Phase 6: Forest total exhaustion.
Even more interesting, numerical simulations show that the two oscillations occur in a relative small time period. Specifically, the second oscillation leading to forest exhaustion is very fast. This means that when oscillations are detected, fast sustainability actions should become a priority. If not, the forest is inevitably lost.
Figure 2: Different dynamic patterns corresponding to several choices of initial conditions.
Figure 3: Time waveform of the number of trees in the forest corresponding to the third pattern in Figure 2
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4 Conclusions
Systems of nonlinear differential equations provide a good framework for studying sustainable development since nonlinear mathematical tools such as bifurcation theory can be applied, leading to non-evident results. For low-dimensional (simplified) systems modeling population growth and forest, it has been shown that, depending on parameter values, non-trivial equilibrium points can exist. This means that sustainable development can be achieved in low-developed human communities. Also, sustainable development can be achieved with oscillations of human population and forest. More complex nonlinear systems including variables from ecosystem, social and economic dimensions show that, depending on the parameter values and initial conditions, different patterns can be obtained. Some of these patterns are related to fast decay of the exhaustible resources. Thus, also fast sustainable actions must be taken into account to prevent ecological disasters.
References
Kuznetsov Y. (1995). Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory. New York: Springer - Verlag. Shi X.Q. (2002). Dynamic Analysis and Assessment for Sustainable Development, Journal of Environmental Sciences, 14 (1), p. 88-94. Brander J.A., Taylor M.S. (1998) The simple economics of Easter Island: a Ricardo-Malthus model of renewable resource use, American Economic Review, 88 (1), p. 119-138. DAlessandro S. (2007) Non-linear dynamics of population and natural resources: The emergence of different patterns of development, Ecological Economics, 62, p. 473-481.
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Applying remote sensing and GIS on monitoring and measuring urban sprawl. A case study of China
Li Feng
L. Feng
Institute of Regional Development Planning University of Stuttgart, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany Email: erma1014@gmail.com
Summary
The understanding on urban sprawl in China still rest on qualitative discussion instead of quantitative analysis. There is no clear answer to identify and evaluate the extent of sprawl. The existing methods for measuring urban sprawl are mainly put forward within the context of Western developed countries. To find good ways for analyzing the spatial features and unique mechanism of urban sprawl within Chinese context is very important .On this background, the techniques of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) to monitor and measure urban sprawl are described in this paper. The builtup areas were obtained from the Landsat TM classified images of four different periods to monitor the dynamic changes of urban sprawl. Choosing the different indicators and measuring the urban sprawl use these indicators based on GIS, on the basis of the calculation results of comprehensive indicators, the sprawl features of research area were identified. Key words: Urban sprawl; Remote Sensing; GIS; Monitor; Measure
1 Introduction
Urban Sprawl is a major problem in the course of the urban development of the Western countries in the 20th century, most of the urban sprawl is considered to be the expansion of lowdensity accompanied by a series of environmental and socio-economic issues. Across states and cities of Europe and North America there is a growing awareness of, and concern about urban sprawl, which has different background from the cities of China. The cities of China have been developing rapidly after reform and opening-up since 1980, urban sprawl has emerged in some regions. Land development has been out of control and the construction land has kept expanding blindly, especially in the marginal areas of some metropolises.
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Some experts pointed out: the phenomenon of urban sprawl in the past decades is extremely severe, and the tendency of scattered development and sprawling growth has been formed, which will seriously impede the modernization process in China if it could not be controlled. In China, some human geography and sociology scholars regarded urban sprawl as a by-product of suburbanization; some physical geography scholars described the process of urban expansion using remote sensing and tried to forecast the trend of urban expansion, but no good explanation of urban sprawl raised up; some planning scholars characterized qualitatively urban expansion and pointed out the problems of urban sprawl during the process of urban expansion, and they gave some planning measures to solve these problems ,but the inner mechanism of urban sprawl was still no clear expression. There are just few studies on how to measure urban sprawl (Anthony Gar-On Yeh, Xia Li 2001), (Jiang Fang et al 2007), (Jingnan Huanget al. 2007), (Li, Y. a. X. 2001). In short, the research on urban sprawl in China is still in a preliminary stage, the basic characteristics of urban sprawl in China have no explicit expression, and the reveal of its internal mechanisms has been maintained in the level of empiricism. How to measure urban sprawl has been a hot spot of research. Some research organizations have put forward their indicators for measuring urban sprawl. Besides, many scholars focus on using indicators to measure urban sprawl by establishing multi-dimensional indicators by GIS analysis or descriptive statistical analysis (Ewing, R. P., Don Chen. 2002), (Frenkel, M. A. 2005), (Galster, G. et al. 2001), (Kent B. Barnes et al. 2001), (S.Fina, S.Siedentop. 2008), (Song Y, G.J. Knaap. 2004), (Schneider A, C. E. W. 2008), (Tsai, Y.-H. 2005). Remote sensing and GIS can be separately or in combination for application in studies of urban sprawl. There are some researches on how to use remote sensing and GIS to monitor and measure urban sprawl (Anthony Gar-On Yeh, Xia Li. 2001), (H. S.Sudhira at al. 2004), (Jingnan Huanget al.. 2007), (Li, Y. a. X. 2001), (Mahesh Kumar Jat et al. 2008), (Neelakantan .K, S. Kulkarni a. V. Raghavaswatmy 2007), (Wei Ji, J. M. et al. 2006), (Xi Jun Yu, C. N. Ng. 2007). In this research, an attempt has been made to find a good way to monitor and measure urban sprawl. I used the multi-temporal Landsat TM images to carry out the image classification. The built-up areas of four different years were extracted from the classified images so that the dynamic changes and the characteristics of urban sprawl could be recognized, and then the builtup area was regarded as one of indicators. Together with other different indicators, I constructed the indicator system to measure urban sprawl. The calculation of indicators was carried out based on GIS, the final results of analysis were visualized as maps. On the basis of the calculation results of comprehensive indicators, I identified the different level of sprawl in Jiangning County.
2 Research Area and Data

2.1 Research area Jiangning County is situated in the middle part of Nanjing City, the capital of Jiangsu Province,
southern band of Yangtze River with the geographic location 11830~11925E and 3130 ~3200N (Figure 1). Jiangning County is located in the basin of Qinhuai River which is a tributary of the Yangtze River. Jiangning County presides 2 towns and 7 neighborhoods, the population is 845,500 in 2006, and the total area is 1, 567 km.
Figure 1: Location of Jiangning County
Before 1980, Jiangning County was a traditional agriculture area, and in fact it was an important grain supply base for Nanjing City. Rapid growth of rural enterprises in Jiangning County started in 1980, the construction of economic and technical development zones accompanied by improved transportation facilities have resulted in remarkable changes in economic activities and in pattern of land use (Ju Jingsha 1998). These activities led to loss of most fertile cultivated lands and the problem of urban sprawl.
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2.2 Data source
Table 1. Data source of research
3 Methodology of research
3.1 Remote sensing image classification The technique of remote sensing provide a powerful tool for studying urban issues, like land use/cover change, urban growth modelling, urban sprawl etc. Remote sensing image classification is one of important application aspects for remote sensing technique, through computer processing with specific software like ERDAS, the results of the classification of land uses can be auto-outputted. In this research, I used the multi-temporal Landsat TM images which covered whole Nanjing city to carry out the image classification. The traditional information extraction from remote sensing image is mainly based on spectral respond feature, so the classification accuracy was not high because of the mixed pixels. Besides the spectral respond feature of remote sensing image, I considered the other features like geographic feature, principle
Figure 2. The process of image classification
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component feature. The method of Maximum Likelihood Classification was used to classify the different land uses, and then built-up areas were recognized and extracted from the classified images (Figure 2). 3.2 Built-up area extraction The builtup areas of four years were extracted from the classified images, from which we can know the dynamic changes of urban sprawl in Jiangning County. For the Landsat TM images, the built-up areas were extracted after image pre-processing and image classification, and then built-up areas were regarded as one of the indicators to measure urban sprawl. The sketch shown in Figure3.
Figure 3. The technique sketch of built-up area extraction
3.3 Indicators construction and GIS spatial analysis Urban sprawl has a variety of different patterns like fragmentation, leapfrogging, discontinuous development etc. For urban sprawl, a clear and unique dixtinction requires justified rules in weighing up several components and indicators. In order to scientifically measure the extent of urban sprawl, many scholars and research institutions presented their Sprawl index, which could exactly reflect the sprawling situation of a whole city or region (Jiang Fang et al. 2007), but they are not suitable very much for mearuring sprawl in China. As for China, some indicators developed for urban expansion reflecting spatial features such as density of built-up area, intensity of annual growth; reflecting growth scale such as the area or share of urban growth, reflecting growth speed such as annual growth rate, elasticity of urban growth to population, and reflecting landscape configuration such as shape index, fractural dimension, isolation etc. (Jiang Fang et al. 2007). But how to use indicators to measure urban sprawl in chinese context is still a challenge. Considering the built-up area as a potential and fairly accurate parameter of urban sprawl, built-
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up area was taken as an important indicator of measuring urban sprawl (H. S.Sudhira, T. et al. 2004). According to the research result of Prof. Siedentop and Fina, three different types of indicators can be used to measure urban sprawl, including density, pattern and surface indicators (Figure 4), which cover the different dimensions of sprawl corresponding with environmental, social and economic impacts of urban land use change (S.Fina, S.Siedento 2008). In this result, surface indicators are focused on the quantitative composition of land use regarding features of land cover; Pattern indicators depict distributional aspects of urban entities; Sprawl-type developments contribute to declining urban densities so that density is a very important indicator.
Figure 4: Impact phenomena caused by changes of land cover, land use pattern and density (From Prof.Siedentop and Fina, 2008)
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Figure 5: Indicators for measuring urban sprawl in Jiangning County
According to this result, I constructed the indicator system to measure urban sprawl in Jiangning County with the specific situation of the research area (Figure 5). Surface indicators include total area, total built-up area and new consumption. Pattern indicators include the shape change of built-up area, fragmentation and open space efficiency. Density indicators include suburban density, the change of suburban density and the change of population density.
4 Results and discussion

Three types of land use including built-up area, water area and other areas were obtained from four period classified images (Figure 6). We can see the big changes of built-up area in different periods. In the north part of research area, there is a very significant change because economic and technological development zone was built. In the south part, the new airport was used on 1 July 1997.
Figure 6: The classified images of research area
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Galster et al., 2001, have classified sprawl into linear development, development by jumping on the green area, continuous but dispersed development and other different ways on the basis of their level of compactness or sprawling (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Physical patterns defining sprawl (From Galster et al. , 2001)
From the classified images, we can see the basic characteristics of urban sprawl in Jiangning County. Three sprawling patterns are identified: randomly expansion at urban fringe, scattered development of industrial land and leapfrog development of urban residential area (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Physical patterns of Sprawl in Jiangning Country
On the basis of the indicator system, the situation of urban sprawl in research area was implemented based on GIS. The urbanization of Jiangning County has a big change from 1990 which impact on urban sprawl very seriously. According to the result of total area and total builtup area, non-agricultural land is one of the strong evidence for discontinuous development and leapfrog development. Urban sprawl has brought significant effects on agriculture, environment and city life. Firstly, urban sprawl has led to huge loss of high quality arable lands in the suburbs. Secondly, urban sprawl has encroached upon limited open space, such as forests, grassland and water area. Thirdly, the urban sprawl caused traffic burden increases the distance between the
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newly developed land and city centers where job opportunities concentrate upon. I classified into three categories of the newly development land with integrated urban sprawl indicators: low sprawling, moderate sprawling and high sprawling (Figure 9).The result showed that sprawling amount in the northern part is larger than that of the southern, but the sprawling extent is in converse case. Besides, severer sprawling mainly concentrates in the marginal area of the near suburbs.
Figure 9: Three categories of sprawl in research area
5 Conclusions
The analysis result showed that non-agricultural land in Jiangning County has kept fast growing with large amount, low efficiency and disordered spatial configuration, indicating a typical sprawling tendency. The following specific sprawl features are identified: obvious fragmentation and irregularity of landscape due to unsuccessful enforcement of land use planning; unadvisable pattern of land use growth with typical discontinuous development, strip development and leapfrog development; low density of land use growth, low population density; and other negative impacts on agriculture, environment and city life. The application result indicates that the indicator system can capture most of the sprawl features and interior differentia as well. These indicators cover different dimensions for measuring urban sprawl. Some indicators could directly depict the microcosmic features; some indicators could indicate the growth pattern; some indicators on growth efficiency are more dependent on the precision of spatializing process. Due to the limitation of data, the indicator system is not very well to measure urban sprawl, so it must be improved in the future.
References
Anthony Gar-On Yeh, Xia Li. (2001). Measurement and Monitoring of Urban Sprawl in a Rapidly Growing Region Using Entropy, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 67, 83-90 Ewing, R. P., Don Chen. (2002). Measuring sprawl and its impact, Report of Smart Growth America, 1-42 Frenkel, M. A. (2005). Measuring Urban Sprawl; How Can We Deal With It?, ERSA conference papers from European Regional Science Association
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Galster, G., Hanson, R. Wolman, H., Coleman, S. (2001). Wrestling Sprawl to the Ground: Defining and Measuring an Elusive Concept, Housing Policy Debate, 12,681-717 Heng Sun, Wayne. F and Nigel. W. (2007). Modeling Urban Land Use Change and Urban Sprawl: Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Netw Spat Econ7, 353376 H. S.Sudhira, T. V.Ramachandra and K. S.Jagadish. (2004). Urban sprawl: metrics, dynamics and modeling using GIS, International Journal Applied Earth Observation and Geoinfomation, 5, 29-39 Jiang Fang, Liu Shenghe and Yuan Hong. (2007). Measuring urban sprawl in Beijing with geo-spatial indices, Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17, 469-478 Ju Jingsha. (1998). A Primary Integration Matrices Approach to Sustainability orientated Land Use Planning In China, Research Report No.20, Institute fr Raumordnung und Entwicklungsplanung der Universitt Stuttgart, 99-103 Jingnan Huang, X. X. Lu., Jefferey M. Sellers. (2007). A global comparative analysis of urban form: Applying spatial metrics and remote sensing, Landscape and Urban Planning, 82, 184-197 Kent B. Barnes, Morgan JM, Roberge MC and Lowe S. (2001). Sprawl development: its patterns, consequences, and measurement, Towson University, Towson, 1-24 Li, Y. a. X. (2001). Measurement and Monitoring of Urban Sprawl in a Rapidly Growing Region Using Entropy, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 67, 83-90 Mahesh Kumar Jat, P.K. Garg and Deepak Khare. (2008). Monitoring and modelling of urban sprawl using remote sensing and GIS techniques, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 10, 26-43 Neelakantan .K, S. Kulkarni a. V. Raghavaswatmy. (2007). Economy, population and urban sprawl a comparative study of urban agglomerations of Bangalore and Hyderabad, India using Remote Sensing and GIS techniques, Paper to be presented at PRIPODE workshop on Urban Population, Development and Environment Dynamics in Developing Countries ,1-37 S.Fina, S.Siedentop. (2008). Monitoring Urban sprawl in Europe identifying the challenge, 13th International Conference on Urban Planning and Regional Development in the Information Society Song Y, G.-J. Knaap. (2004). Measuring Urban Form-Is Portland Winning the War on Sprawl?, Journal of the American Planning Association, 70, 210-225 Schneider A, C. E. W. (2008). Compact, Dispersed, Fragmented, Extensive? A Comparison of Urban Growth in Twenty-five Global Cities using Remotely Sensed Data, Pattern Metrics and Census Information. , Urban Studies, 45, 659-692 Tsai, Y.-H. (2005). Quantifying Urban Form: Compactness versus Sprawl , Urban Studies ,42, 141161 Wei Ji, J. M., Rima Wahab Twibell and Karen Underhil. (2006). Characterizing urban sprawl using multi-stage remote sensing images and landscape metrics, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 30, 861-879 Xi Jun Yu, C. N. Ng. (2007). Spatial and temporal dynamics of urban sprawl next term along two previous term urban next termrural transects: A case study of Guangzhou, China., Landscape and Urban Planning, 79, 96-109
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Diseo y simulacin de escenarios de demanda de suelo urbano en mbitos metropolitanos.

Aguilera Benavente, F.1; Plata Rocha, W.2; Bosque Sendra, J.2 y Gmez Delgado, M.2
F. Aguilera et al.
1 Laboratorio de Planificacin Ambiental. Universidad de Granada Campus de Fuente Nueva S/N Edificio Politcnico 18071 Granada 2 Departamento de Geografa. Universidad de Alcal. Colegios, 2, Alcal de Henares 28801 Madrid e-mail1: franab@ugr.es
Resumen
La generacin y simulacin de escenarios exploratorios externos es un instrumento til en los procesos de planificacin y toma de decisiones, de especial relevancia en el mbito territorial y metropolitano (Peterson et al, 2003; Pettit y Pullar, 2004; Luca, 2007; Carsjens, 2009), cuyo calado en el proceso de planificacin en Espaa es escaso hasta la fecha (Valenzuela, Aguilera, Soria y Molero, 2008). En este artculo se presenta un modelo basado en Dinmica de Sistemas para estimar las demandas de nuevo suelo urbano en mbitos metropolitanos. El modelo se ha desarrollado concretamente para dos mbitos metropolitanos espaoles (Regin Urbana de Madrid y Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada) para los cuales se ha realizado un proceso de calibracin individual, Una vez calibrado el modelo para dichos mbitos, y a travs del planteamiento de tres escenarios futuros, se han simulado las posibles tendencias de las demandas de ocupacin urbana que podran derivarse de las premisas establecidas en cada escenario, con unos resultados satisfactorios. Dichos resultados podrn ser empleados en otros trabajos que permitirn localizar espacialmente, mediante modelos de simulacin espacial, las demandas estimadas, para mostrar y evaluar posibles consecuencias espaciales y territoriales de los procesos de crecimiento metropolitano. Palabras clave: Scenario planning, Escenarios exploratorios externos, dinmica de sistemas, planificacin, reas metropolitanas.
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Title: Design and Simulation of Metropolitan urban growth demands scenarios Abstract: The design and development of future explorative external scenarios are useful tools for the spatial planning and even more for the metropolitan planning (Peterson et al, 2003; Pettit y Pullar, 2004; Luca, 2007; Carsjens, 2009). However, spatial planning policy and practices in Spain lack of this instruments (Valenzuela, Aguilera, Soria y Molero, 2008) This paper shows a System Dynamics-based model designed to estimate urban growth demands in metropolitan areas. This model has been specifically developed for Madrid and Granada metropolitan areas (Spain), where the model has been calibrated. After the calibration, three future urban growth demands scenarios has been designed and simulated using the model developed. The urban growth demands obtained may be used in later research to spatially locate that demands using spatial simulation models. Keywords: Scenario planning, explorative external scenarios, system dynamics, spatial planning, metropolitan areas.
1 Introduccin: Dinmica de sistemas y SIG en la generacin de escenarios para la planificacin metropolitana

La generacin y simulacin de escenarios exploratorios externos1 es un instrumento til en los procesos de planificacin y toma de decisiones en el mbito territorial y metropolitano ((Peterson et al, 2003; Pettit y Pullar, 2004; Luca, 2007; Carsjens, 2009) que se encuentra bien extendido en el contexto europeo (ESPON Project 3.2, 2006), formando parte de enfoques de la planificacin como el scenario planning (Stillwell et al, 1999). Estos instrumentos pueden ayudar a disminuir la incertidumbre inherente al proceso de planificacin (Prato, 2007; Aguilera, 2008; Carsjens, 2009), especialmente en momentos como los actuales. Sin embargo, su falta de aplicacin en el contexto metropolitano espaol, queda patente en la mayor parte de los documentos de planificacin existentes tanto a escala regional, supramunicipal o local (Soria et al, 2009), siendo los dos mbitos de estudio seleccionados en este trabajo claros ejemplos de ello. Es posible achacar en cierta forma la incapacidad del planeamiento metropolitano espaol (De Miguel, 2008) a la falta de innovacin metodolgica en el empleo de instruentos de este tipo. En este sentido consideramos oportuno explorar las posibilidades de aplicacin de instrumentos tiles para el proceso de planificacin metropolitana en Espaa tales como el diseo de modelos de simulacin (Aguilera, 2008), la generacin de los escenarios normativos o exploratorios (Nijkamp y Blaas, 1994, Borjerson et al, 2006), o el empleo de modelos de ayuda a la decisin (Hendriks y Vriens, 2000) o de ayuda a la planificacin (Carsjens, 2009), especialmente ante etapas de gran desarrollo metropolitano como las acontecidas en los ltimos aos (OSE, 2006) y/o la situaciones de incertidumbre como la actual.
Algunas de las herramientas ms importantes que pueden emplearse para la concrecin de instrumentos como los escenarios futuros son, entre otras, la Dinmica de Sistemas (DS) y los Sistemas de Informacin Geogrfica (SIG). En primer lugar los SIG, de acuerdo con su elevada capacidad de anlisis y de integracin diversas fuentes de informacin geogrfica, proporcionan un soporte amplio para el diseo y aplicacin de modelos de localizacin ptima (Gmez y Barredo, 2005), o los modelos de simulacin espacial de la expansin urbana, (Aguilera, 2008; Barredo y Gmez, 2008) en el que la componente espacial de la informacin geogrfica es fundamental. Sin embargo, uno de los principales hndicap que presentan los SIG en este campo lo constituye la inherente dificultad para el tratamiento de la cuestin temporal (Ott y Swiaczny 2001; Lpez y Bosque, 2005). La dinmica de sistemas por su parte, sin una preocupacin expresa por el tratamiento de las cuestiones espaciales, se presenta como un instrumento til para el estudio del comportamiento de sistemas complejos a partir de la identificacin de las relaciones entre la estructura del sistema, su comportamiento, y la determinacin de los valores que las variables adoptan, a lo largo del tiempo (Aracil, y Gordillo 1997). No en vano, algunas de las primeras aplicaciones de la DS fueron en el campo de los sistemas urbanos (Forrester, 1969). As pues, de acuerdo con el enfoque temporal de la DS y el eminentemente espacial de los SIG, es posible abordar, a partir del uso conjunto de estas herramientas, procesos degeneracin y simulacin temporal y espacial de escenarios aplicados a la planificacin territorial y metropolitana, lnea de una relevancia importante como revelan proyectos Europeos como PLUREL (Ravetz, 2009), PRELUDE (JRC, 2007) o ESPON 3.2.(2006) impulsados por la Comisin Europea. Este trabajo, y de acuerdo con lo anteriormente expuesto, tiene como objetivo principal el diseo de tres escenarios externos futuros (Dreborg, 2004; Borjerson et al, 2006) en relacin con el contexto socioeconmico, as como la simulacin de las demandas de crecimiento metropolitano para los tres escenarios en dos zonas metropolitanas Espaolas. Estas reas, de caractersticas muy diferentes, son la regin urbana de Madrid y el rea Metropolitana de Granada. Al tratarse de escenarios prospectivos externos, y de acuerdo con Borjerson et al, (2006) deben ser entendidos en el contexto del pensamiento futuro exploratorio, y por tanto posible, pero nunca como una realidad futura. La representacin de estos futuros hipotticos permite esclarecer la accin presente (planificadora) a la luz de futuros posibles (Goded, 2000) y, por tanto constituye un enfoque exploratorio, y no normativo. Para ello se construir un modelo sencillo que pueda generar valores de demanda de ocupacin del suelo en entornos metropolitanos, para el que no se considerarn limitaciones fsicas, a partir de variables de fcil disponibilidad, principalmente de naturaleza socioeconmica, que permitan la simulacin de las condiciones establecidas en los tres escenarios y por tanto su materializacin en diferentes intensidades de ocupacin urbana asociadas.
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2 mbito de estudio y datos de partida

2.1 mbito de estudio: Las reas metropolitanas de Madrid y Granada El mbito de estudio y laboratorio de pruebas del modelo de simulacin de demandas y de los escenarios de desarrollo territorial est configurado por dos reas metropolitanas espaolas de caractersticas diferentes, como son la Regin Urbana de Madrid y la Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada, que bien pueden ser ejemplo de las grandes reas metropolitanas consolidadas Espaolas (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Bilbao) o las nuevas reas metropolitanas emergentes (Mlaga, Vigo-Pontevedra, Elche-Alicante, etc) (Feria, 2004). Con respecto a la Comunidad de Madrid, sta tiene una extensin territorial de 8.025 km2 (figura 1), repartida en un total de 179 municipios. Su poblacin estimada es de aproximadamente 6 millones de habitantes (INE, 2008), gran parte de la cual se concentra en el rea metropolitana, aunque a partir de la dcada de 1990 se evidenciaron fuertes procesos de descentralizacin hacia algunos municipios del oeste, norte y sureste de la regin, que incidieron en el desarrollo de nuevos espacios urbanos. El sector productivo (industrial y comercial) est caracterizado por una distribucin espacial cada vez ms extensa, dispersa y fragmentada, lo que conlleva a crecientes necesidades de transporte, tanto para los trabajadores y sobre todo para las mercancas (Gutirrez Puebla, 2004, De Santiago, 2007). Esto a su vez tambin produjo una importante ampliacin de la infraestructura de transporte, donde cabe mencionar que hacia el ao 2000 la red vial alcanzaba aproximadamente 584 kilmetros de extensin mientras que la red de metro y ferrocarriles se acercaba a los 530 kilmetros, posicionndose como la segunda infraestructura de transporte ms importante de la regin (Lpez de Lucio, 2003).
Figura 1: La regin Urbana de Madrid.
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En este contexto la Comunidad de Madrid se consolida como uno de los territorios de mayor dinamismo del arco mediterrneo, con un crecimiento de las superficies artificiales aproximado del 48 % durante la dcada de los 90, muy lejos del 25% de crecimiento medio registrado en el territorio nacional y del 5,4% de la Unin Europea (EEA, 2006; OSE, 2006; Plata et al, 2009), fenmeno que no ha venido acompaado del mismo crecimiento en trminos de poblacin, pues sta slo creci un 9% entre las mismas fechas. Por su parte, el rea de Metropolitana de Granada (Figura 2), tradicionalmente denominada comarca de la Vega de Granada, con una superficie de 859,34 km2 y 32 municipios (Consejera de Obras Pblicas, 1999), ha experimentado en las ltimas dcadas una serie de transformaciones especialmente vinculadas a la ocupacin de suelo con funciones urbanas (Aguilera 2008). Situada en la depresin del ro Genil, en el sudeste de la pennsula Ibrica dicha regin posee un importante valor agroproductivo (Menor, 2000), de tal forma que su organizacin territorial a lo largo de la historia ha reflejado la importancia econmica de la explotacin agraria, que sin embargo se encuentra en franca regresin (Consejera de Obras Pblicas, 1999; Fernndez, 2004) Tradicionalmente, y hasta dicha dcada de los 70, la poblacin, servicios y actividades se concentraban en la ciudad de Granada, mientras que a su alrededor orbitaban en torno a una decena de pequeos ncleos urbanos de marcado carcter agrcola. Sin embargo, desde finales esta dcada de los 70 y comienzos de la de los 80, de acuerdo con un proceso de aceleracin de la ocupacin de suelo (incremento de la ocupacin urbana del 117 %, Aguilera 2008), una poltica de incremento de las infraestructuras de la movilidad, y un declive de la produccin agrcola, dicha comarca ha dado lugar a la realidad metropolitana actual que, como tercera rea metropolitana de Andaluca, alberga una poblacin superior al medio milln de habitantes (INE,2008).
Figura 2. El rea Metropolitana de Granada
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2.2 Los datos de partida El diseo de un modelo de simulacin para estudiar los cambios que tienen lugar en un rea metropolitana, de naturaleza especialmente compleja (Verburg, Schot, Dijst, y Veldkamp 2004), requiere del planteamiento previo de un conjunto de factores con posible influencia en el proceso de cambio en cuestin (Cheng y Masser, 2003). De acuerdo con el enfoque del trabajo, que se aleja de la dimensin espacial en esta primera etapa2, el conjunto de variables seleccionado resume de manera muy sencilla algunos de los posibles factores motrices del crecimiento en las reas metropolitanas de Granada y Madrid, adems de ser fcilmente accesibles, haciendo reproducible los resultados obtenidos en otros mbitos metropolitanos. As pues, la mayor parte de estos datos pueden ser obtenidos a travs del Instituto Nacional de Estadstica as como de los Institutos de Estadstica regionales de las diferentes comunidades autnomas. El conjunto comprende variables que van desde los valores de nacimientos y defunciones hasta los valores de renta, pasando por el nmero de viviendas, o el nmero de hogares. Estos factores quedan recogido en la tabla 1, en la que adems se han dividido entre variables primarias, las cuales se han obtenido directamente de la informacin estadstica disponible; variables derivadas, obtenidas a partir y por combinacin de las variables bsicas, y variables de calibracin, cuyo valor se obtiene a partir de observaciones empricas del cambio experimentado en perodos pasados. Igualmente se ha recogido en dicha tabla el tipo de instrumento con el que dicha variable se ha implementado en el modelo de DS elaborado ( niveles, flujos, variables auxiliares y tasas)
Varia ble POB REN HOG SP SR NV TBN TBM TSM Nac Def Nombre Poblacin Renta Hogares Suelo Productivo Suelo residencial Nmero de viviendas Tasa Natalidad Tasa Mortalidad Tasa Migratoria Nacimientos Defunciones Descripcin Poblacin residente Renta () Hogares Suelo comercial e industrial Suelo destinado a actividades residencial Nmero de viviendas totales Tasa de Natalidad en tanto por mil Tasa de Mortalidad en tanto por mil Tasa Migratoria en tanto por mil Nacimientos obtenidos a partir de la TBN Defunciones obtenidas a partir de la TBM Unidades Personas Euros N de Hogares Ha Ha N de viviendas Adimensional Adimensional Adimensional N Nacimientos N defunciones Tipo de Variable Primaria Primaria Primaria Primaria Primaria Primaria Primaria Primaria Derivada Derivada Derivada Tipo modelo Nivel Nivel Nivel Nivel Nivel Nivel Tasa Tasa Tasa Flujo Flujo Siglas variable POB REN HOG SP SR NV TBN TBM TSM Nac Def
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Diseo y simulacin de escenarios de demanda de suelo urbano en mbitos metropolitanos. SM IncP OB PH HEC E NH Saldo Migratorio Aumento de la poblacin Personas por Hogar Hogares por cambio estructura Nuevos Hogares Saldo Migratorio Incremento de Poblacin Poblacin entre N de Hogares en 1991 Nuevos hogares por escisin de ncleos familiares Igual a los nuevos hogares por cambio estructura ms nuevos hogares por crecimiento poblacional Disminucin de la renta en euros por ao Incremento de la renta en euros por ao % de Aumento de la renta/ao % de Descenso de la renta/ao Cambio en la renta en euros por persona Poblacin por renta por tasa de aumento vivienda/euro persona Nuevas viviendas en el rea metropolitana Se obtiene como cociente entre la superficie de suelo residencial y el nmero de viviendas Nuevo suelo residencial por ao Nuevo suelo productivo por ao Nuevo suelo productivo tanto industrial como comercial N inmigrantes N de personas N de personas N Hogares N de hogares/ao Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada Flujo Variable auxiliar Tasa Tasa Flujo SM IncPOB PH HECE NH
DesR EN IncR EN Tinc REN Tdes REN VHR AVR Nviv SCV
Disminucin de Renta Incremento de Renta Tasa de Incremento de renta Tasa de Disminucin de renta Variacin de renta por Habitante Aumento de viviendas por renta Nuevas viviendas Suelo consumido por vivienda
Euros/Ao Euros/Ao % Euros/Ao % Euros/Ao Euros/Person a N de Viviendas/eur o persona N de Viviendas Metros cuadrados/viv ienda Metros cuadrados Metros cuadrados/viv ienda Metros cuadrados
Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada Derivada
Flujo Flujo Tasa Tasa Variable Auxiliar Variable auxiliar Flujo Tasa
DesREN IncREN TincREN TdesREN VHR AVR Nviv SCV
NSR NSP V ISP
Nuevo suelo residencial Suelo productivo por vivienda Incremento Suelo productivo
Derivada Derivada Derivada
Variable auxiliar Tasa Flujo
NSR NSPV ISP
Tabla 1: Variables empleadas en el modelo y sus principales caractersticas (Fuente IECM e IEA)
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3 Metodologa: El modelo de DS y la generacin de los escenarios futuros

3.1 Descripcin del modelo. El funcionamiento del modelo Desde el punto de vista del diseo conceptual del modelo, ste se compone de 3 bloques bsicos que al relacionarse entre s dan lugar a otros dos bloques que generan los resultados finales del modelo. ste ha sido implementado en el software Vensim PLE (Ventana Systems, Inc), dado su facilidad de manejo, amplia difusin, disponibilidad y gratuidad, adems, por supuesto, de su diseo especfico para el trabajo con modelos basados en Dinmica de Sistemas. En total constituyen 5 bloques diferenciados (Figura 3) pero interrelacionados entre s. - El primer bloque bsico se encarga de estimar la evolucin de la poblacin en funcin de las tasas de natalidad, mortalidad y emigracin. - El segundo bloque aborda la modificacin del nmero de hogares, producto de los cambios en la estructura familiar (escisiones de hogares, por ejemplo) as como de la evolucin poblacional. - El tercer bloque bsico estima la evolucin de los niveles de renta. Como producto de la relacin entre estos tres bloques los dos bloques resultado sern: - Un bloque de estimacin del nmero de viviendas y superficie urbana destinada a usos residenciales, como producto de la relacin entre los bloques de evolucin de los hogares y de evolucin de niveles de renta.
Un bloque de estimacin de las superficies urbanas destinadas a usos productivos (industrial comercial, servicios, ocio), como producto tanto del tercer bloque bsico (evolucin del nivel de renta) as como del bloque de estimacin de viviendas.
Figura 3: Diseo conceptual del modelo.
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3.1.1 La estimacin de la evolucin de la poblacin El primero de los bloques bsicos del modelo es el de estimacin de la evolucin de la poblacin. Este obtiene los crecimientos poblacionales a lo largo del tiempo mediante la estimacin del saldo migratorio, defunciones y nacimientos (flujos, en color verde), empleando para ello unas tasas de natalidad, mortalidad y migratoria que consideramos se mantienen constantes (en color rojo) (Figura 4). Igualmente, este bloque tambin permite estimar el incremento neto de poblacin, que ser almacenado a travs de la variable auxiliar Incremento de poblacin (en azul).
Figura 4: Bloque 1: Evolucin de la poblacin.
3.1.2 La estimacin de la evolucin de los hogares El segundo bloque estima el cambio en el nmero de hogares con el tiempo empleando para ello diversas variables (Figura 5). En primer lugar, se estima el nmero de nuevos hogares como consecuencia de los crecimientos poblaciones estimados en el primer bloque. Para ello se divide el incremento de poblacin entre un nmero de personas por hogar (en rojo). Igualmente se considera como factor de incremento del nmero de hogares la aparicin de nuevos hogares generados por cambios en la estructura tradicional del hogar (disminucin del nmero de
Figura 5: Bloque 2. La evolucin del nmero de hogares.
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personas por hogar, separaciones, etc). Para ello se introduce la variable auxiliar Hogares por escisin y cambio en la estructura (HECE), que se ha calculado a partir de los nuevos hogares aparecidos en el perodo 90-2000 que no se explican de acuerdo con el crecimiento poblacional, sino con una disminucin del nmero de personas por hogar. Los nuevos hogares se obtendran como la suma de los nuevos hogares producto del incremento poblacional as como de los nuevos hogares por escisin de los existentes. 3.1.3 La estimacin de la evolucin de los niveles de renta El tercero de los bloques bsicos (figura 6) estima el cambio de los valores de renta a partir nicamente del flujo del incremento de renta.
Figura 6: Bloque 3. Estimacin de la evolucin de los niveles de renta.
3.1.4 La estimacin de la evolucin de las viviendas y el suelo residencial El bloque de estimacin de las viviendas y ocupacin de suelo se apoya en los diferentes bloques bsicos detallados anteriormente. Para ello estima el incremento de nuevas viviendas a partir de dos procesos: el incremento de viviendas motivado por el incremento de hogares, as como el incremento de viviendas con motivo del incremento de renta disponible (Figura 7). La determinacin del nmero de viviendas generadas por los nuevos hogares se apoyar en la estimacin del nmero de hogares calculada en el segundo bloque (en azul) junto con una tasa de viviendas por hogar, que en principio se fij de acuerdo con los valores existentes en 1991 (en rojo); as como en el nmero de viviendas generadas por el incremento de renta . Este valor deber ser calibrado. A partir de la estimacin de las viviendas, y mediante un valor de suelo consumido por vivienda (en rojo) se puede obtener igualmente las nuevas demandas de suelo para uso residencial.
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Figura 7: Bloque 4. Estimacin de las nuevas viviendas y suelo residencial
3.1.5 La estimacin de la evolucin del suelo productivo. El ltimo de los bloques del modelo (figura 8) estimara los valores de nuevas demandas de suelo productivo (suelos industriales y comerciales) como combinacin del tercer bloque bsico (incrementos de renta) as como del bloque anterior. As pues, los nuevos suelos productivos podran ser estimados a partir de las demandas de tejido productivo generadas por las nuevas viviendas obtenidas en el bloque 4, as como por los incrementos de renta generados en el bloque 3. Las demandas de suelo productivo por viviendas se estiman a partir de los valores de viviendas anteriormente obtenidos junto con un valor de relacin suelo productivo/vivienda. Por su parte el nuevo suelo productivo como consecuencia del incremento de renta, necesita del incremento de renta anteriormente estimado junto con una tasa de incremento de suelo productivo por /incremento de renta, que deber ser calibrada.
Figura 8: Bloque 5. Estimacin de las demandas de suelo productivo

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De esta forma, y de acuerdo con los bloques descritos anteriormente, la Figura 9 muestra el aspecto final del modelo como relacin de los comentados bloques.
Figura 9: Aspecto del modelo implementado en el Software VenSIMPLE.
En esta primera aproximacin a la simulacin de las demandas de crecimiento de suelo residencial y productivo, las interacciones implementadas en el modelo son solo en una direccin, de tal modo que no existe una modificacin de los variables de entrada como podran ser las tasas de natalidad o inmigracin, o el incremento de renta por parte de las variables de salida como las superficies residenciales o productivas. Estos aspectos se abordarn en sucesivas etapas de modificacin del modelo propuesto. 3.2 La calibracin del modelo Para poder realizar las simulaciones de los escenarios futuros, as como para poder estimar los valores de algunas de las tasas comentadas anteriormente, es necesario llevar a cabo un proceso de calibracin del modelo que permita mostrar su capacidad para simular dinmicas pasadas de demandas de suelos urbanos. Este proceso de calibracin se ha desarrollado entre dos fechas, 1991 y 2001, para las cuales el volumen de informacin disponible era importante (datos socio demogrficos censales), as como por la disponibilidad de informacin cartogrfica que permita valorar las superficies de suelos tanto residenciales como productivos (CORINE LandCover 1990 y 2000). Este proceso de calibracin adems permitir aplicar el mismo modelo a dos reas
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metropolitanas de caractersticas y entidad claramente diferenciadas. Los valores de estas variables quedan recogidos en la tabla 2 Variables Poblacin 1991 (hab) Poblacin 2001 (hab) Hogares 1991 Hogares 2001 Viviendas 1991 Viviendas 2001
Renta 19913 Regin Urbana de Madrid Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada
Renta 2001 Suelo Residencial 1991 en ha Suelo Residencial 2001 en ha Suelo Productivo 1991 en ha Suelo Productivo 2001 en ha
4.947.555 5.423.384 1.534.362 1.873.792 2.478.145 4.947.555 31.319.804,03 60.502.118,95 41.801,75 56.127,25 6.486 14.195,75
408.444 436.025 118.969 148.141 165.968 219.925 3091,15 4993,03 5.292 6.155,89 795,20 1048,25
Tabla 2. Variables socio demogrficas y de ocupacin del suelo para Madrid y Granada
A partir de estos valores de las variables para el perodo 1991-2001, se han obtenido los valores medios observados de las diferentes tasas descritas tanto en la tabla 1 como a lo largo de la descripcin del modelo. Con estos datos se han realizado diferentes simulaciones para el perodo 1991-2001, realizndose algunos pequeos ajustes en los valores de las diferentes variables (en particular de los valores de las tasas de calibracin) para tratar de ajustar los resultados obtenidos por el modelo para el ao 2001 a los cambios realmente acontecidos. En la tabla 3 se muestran los valores de las tasas calculados de acuerdo con los datos reales para 1991 y 2001, as como los valores obtenidos tras el proceso de calibracin, tanto para el rea Metropolitana de Madrid como la de Granada.
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F. Aguilera et al. Tasas Valores Reales Madrid 0,011 0,00785 0,004 6, 36 % Tasas Ajustada s Madrid = = = = = = = 0.013 = = = 0.024 Tasas reales Tasas Granada Ajustadas Granada 0,012 0,00785 0,00376 6,15 % 0 6,33E-010 1,40 0,05 1,69E-006 3,19 2.114 0,03 = = = = = = = 0,050 = = = =
Tasa de natalidad (TBN) Tasa de mortalidad (TBM) Tasa de saldo migratorio (TSM) Tasa de aumento de renta (TCR)
Tasa de decrecimiento de renta 0 (TDR) Tasa de aumento productivo (TASP) de suelo 2.92023e-009
Tasa de viviendas por hogar 1.29643 (TVH) Tasa de nuevo suelo productivo 0.014 por vivienda (TNSPV) Tasa de aumento de la vivienda 1,7174e-007 por euro y persona (TAVEP) Personas por hogar (PH) 3.06 Hogares por escisin y cambio 33.943 en estructura (HECE) Suelo Consumido por vivienda 0.023 (SCV) (ha)
Tabla 3. Clculo de las tasas reales observadas y calibradas para la realizacin de las simulaciones 902000.
A partir de los valores reales para el ao 1991 (tabla 2) y los ajustados de las diferentes tasas para Madrid y Granada (tabla 3), se han generado las simulaciones para el ao 2000 empleando como datos de entrada los reales para el ao 1991. La tabla 4 muestra los resultados para Granada y Madrid, as como el porcentaje de ajuste del modelo mediante su comparacin con la situacin real en el ao 2000.
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Diseo y simulacin de escenarios de demanda de suelo urbano en mbitos metropolitanos. Suelo Residencial (ha) 41.801,8 55.427,0 56.127,25 Suelo Productivo (ha) 6.486 14.833 14.195,75
Poblacin Madrid 1990 Madrid 2000 Madrid 2000 Estimado % Ajuste sobre cambios 902000 Granada 1990 Granada 2000 Granada 2000 Estimado % Ajuste sobre cambio 90-2000 4.947.560 5.312.910 5.423.384
Hogares 1.534.36 1.993.190 1.873.792
Renta 31.319.800 58.023.300 60.502.118,95
Viviendas 1,949,160 2.544.620 2.478.145
76,8 408444 436025 437.579 94,4
64,8 118.969 148.141 148.603 98,4
91,5 3091,15 4989,14 4992.95 99,9
87,4 165968 219925 211.179 83,8
99,8 5292 6155,89 6.196,23 95,3
99,5 795,20 1048,25 1021,7 89,5
Tabla 4. Valores obtenidos tras el proceso de calibracin 1991 2001 para Madrid y Granada.
3.3 Los escenarios futuros Una vez establecida la calibracin del modelo para el perodo 1991-2001, a continuacin se describen los tres escenarios exploratorios externos que se plantean como posible evolucin futura de la dinmica de las reas metropolitanas de estudio, as como su relacin con las diferentes variables manejadas por el modelo. 3.3.1 Escenario de Tendencia La superacin de cualquier incertidumbre o crisis econmica por parte del modelo que ha permitido el extraordinario desarrollo experimentado en los ltimos 15 aos, junto con el mantenimiento de la primaca de los intereses econmicos sobre cuestiones ambientales o sociales, constituye la base del escenario tendencial, considerando siempre que el ao de partida es el ao 2000. As pues, este escenario supone la confirmacin y consolidacin de los modelos e intensidades de crecimiento mostradas para el perodo 90-2000. En este sentido, se establece un comportamiento que se mantendr elevado en lo que respecta a las demandas de crecimiento de los suelos residenciales y productivos, de acuerdo con el mantenimiento de las tasas de incremento de la poblacin (especialmente gracias a la tasa de inmigracin), el alza de los niveles de renta disponibles, la favorable calificacin de suelo establecida en los planeamientos y las altas demandas de suelo productivo (especialmente comercial y terciario) generadas por las nuevas viviendas.
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3.3.2 Escenario de Crisis El agotamiento del modelo de desarrollo experimentado en los ltimos aos supone el advenimiento de un perodo dilatado de crisis con consecuencias importantes en los procesos de crecimiento metropolitano. De esta forma, este escenario supone un cambio importante en las formas, pautas e intensidades de crecimiento mostradas en los perodos anteriores. Las demandas de suelo productivo y residencial se vern ampliamente reducidas como consecuencia de la menor presin demogrfica (generada por un estancamiento del proceso migratorio), as como por la disminucin en los incrementos de los niveles de renta, y unas pautas de crecimiento ms compactas que disminuirn las zonas productivas asociadas a las zonas residenciales. 3.3.3 Escenario de innovacin y sostenibilidad local La bsqueda de nuevos modelos y frmulas de crecimiento y diversificacin econmica dar lugar a un giro en el modelo de desarrollo metropolitano, en el que el crecimiento residencial predominante dar paso a un mayor desarrollo productivo que permita dar acogida al nuevo tejido empresarial de innovacin que sustentar el crecimiento econmico. As pues, las demandas de suelo para crecimiento metropolitano se centran principalmente en el crecimiento de nuevas reas productivas generadas por los incrementos de rentas derivadas de la innovacin como motor econmico, mientras que las demandas residenciales se ven reducidas de acuerdo con un mantenimiento de la poblacin. 3.4 Escenarios futuros y variables del modelo de DS Descritos los escenarios, es necesario explicitar sus diferencias a travs de la modificacin de las principales tasas que controlan el funcionamiento del modelo. La tabla 5 muestra los valores que se mantendran constantes para los diferentes escenarios as como aquellos que se incrementaran, disminuiran o incluso se haran cero. Se trata de la tasa de saldo migratorio (TSM), tasa de aumento de renta (TCR), tasa de decrecimiento de renta (TDR), tasa de viviendas por hogar (TVH), tasa de nuevo suelo productivo por vivienda (TNSPV), suelo consumido por vivienda (SCV).
Tasas Tasa de natalidad (TBN) Tasa de mortalidad (TBM) Tasa de saldo migratorio (TSM) Tasa de aumento de renta (TCR) Tasa de decrecimiento de renta (TDR) Tasa de aumento de suelo productivo (TASP) Tasa de viviendas por hogar (TVH) Tendencial = = = = = = = Crisis = = 0 = 1 Innovacin y Sostenibilidad = = 0 = 1
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Diseo y simulacin de escenarios de demanda de suelo urbano en mbitos metropolitanos. Tasa de nuevo suelo productivo por vivienda (TNSPV) = = = = = = = =
Tasa de aumento de la vivienda por euro y = persona (TAVEP) Personas por hogar (PH) = Hogares por escisin y cambio en estructura = (HECE) Suelo Consumido por vivienda (SCV) (ha) =
Tabla 5: Cambios en las tasas para los diferentes escenarios futuros.
Para cada una de estas tasas propuestas para su modificacin, se ha asignado un valor de cambio preliminar del 20 %, ya sea de incremento o disminucin segn corresponda. Estos cambios son resultado de un anlisis de sensibilidad previo, en el que se han valorado los cambios generados en las demandas con motivo de la modificacin de los valores de las tasas, estimndose el 20 % como el valor ms adecuado para generar escenarios de caractersticas diferenciales que por otra parte supongan unos cambios razonables en las tasas estimadas para el perodo 90-2000. As pues, finalmente los valores empleados de las tasas para la simulacin de los escenarios futuros quedan recogidos en la tabla 6.
Tasas Madrid Escenario Tendencial TBN TBM TSM TCR TDR TASP TVH TNSPV TAVEP PH HECE SCV 0,011 0,00785 0,004 0,063 0 2,92E-9 1,29 0,0145 1,72E-7 3,40 33,943 0,023 Escenario Crisis M = = 0.0032 0 0,03 = 1 = = = = 0,0184 Escenario Innovacin y Sostenibilidad = = 0.0032 0,076 0 = 1 0,0112 = = = 0,0184 Granada Escenario Tendencial 0,012 0,00785 0,00376 0,061 0 6,32E-10 1,40 0,05 1,688e-006 2,94 2.114 0,02 0,05 = = = 0,016 0,04 = = = 0,016 Escenario Crisis = = 0,003008 0 0,0123 = Escenario Innovacin y Sostenibilidad = = 0,003008 0,073759 0 =
Tabla 6: Valores de las tasas para la simulacin de los escenarios futuros.
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4 Resultados de la simulacin de los escenarios

Una vez establecidos los valores de las tasas, se han realizado las simulaciones de los diferentes escenarios para las dos reas objeto de estudio. Los valores obtenidos para los principales parmetros estimados por el modelo quedan recogidos en la tabla 7.
INNOV SOST + % CRECIM TEND % CRECIM CRISIS % CRECIM INNOV + SOST
VARIABLES GRANADA DEMANDA RESIDENCIAL DEMANDA PRODUCTIVO VIVIENDAS HOGARES POBLACIN MADRID DEMANDA RESIDENCIAL DEMANDA PRODUCTIVO VIVIENDAS HOGARES POBLACIN
TEND
CRISIS
8012,22 1534,3 312786 212334 500448
7141,47 1294,62 281580 209796 492986
7459,29 1310,19 285140 209796 492986
30 46 42 43 15
16 24 28 42 13
21 25 30 42 13
84,541.41 31,551.42 3,713,543 2,824,074.5 6,253,936.9
73,646.97 27,525.97 3,430,304 2,791,850.2 6,155,330.5
73,744.76 25,031.41 3,435,618 39,086.3 6,155,330.5
50.6 122.3 49.9 50.7 15.3
31.2 93.9 38.4 49.0 13.5
31.4 76.1 38.6 49.0 13.5
Tabla 7. Resultados de las simulaciones de demandas de suelo residencial y productivo para los tres escenarios establecidos en las dos reas de estudio Los porcentajes de crecimiento en los escenarios se refieren al dato del ao 2000.
De forma grfica y para los resultados referentes a las demandas de suelo productivo y residencial, las Figuras 10 y 11 muestran las diferencias observadas entre los tres escenarios futuros, tanto para Madrid como para Granada.
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Figura 10: Demandas de suelo residencial (izquierda) y productivo (derecha) para la Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada
Figura 11: Demandas de suelo residencial (izquierda) y productivo (derecha) para la regin urbana de Madrid
Igualmente tambin pueden ser representadas de forma grfica la evolucin de estas demandas a lo largo de los 20 aos de horizonte de los escenarios establecidos. En la Figura 12 quedan recogidos estos valores de demanda residencial para las dos zonas de estudio.
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Figura 12: Evolucin temporal de la superficie residencial (izquierda) y productiva (derecha) en los tres escenarios y las dos reas de estudio.
Se puede observar para el caso de Granada como las diferencias en los cambios en las demandas son ms acusadas en el caso del suelo residencial, especialmente entre los escenarios de innovacin y de crisis, aunque el escenario tendencial muestra en el caso del suelo productivo una mayor diferencia con respecto a los dems. Queda de manifiesto la disminucin de las demandas que suponen tanto el escenario de crisis (valores mnimos de las demandas de los usos residenciales y productivos), as como el escenario de innovacin y sostenibilidad. Por su parte, en el caso de Madrid la disminucin de las demandas es similar a lo comentado para el caso de Granada en lo que a las diferencias con el escenario tendencial se refiere. Sin embargo, para el suelo productivo los valores de demanda son muy similares para los escenarios de crisis y de innovacin y sostenibilidad. Por su parte, en el caso del suelo productivo es este ltimo escenario el que presenta los valores ms bajos, al contrario que para el caso de Granada. De acuerdo con la descripcin del escenario de innovacin y sostenibilidad, debera ser el escenario de crisis el que menor crecimiento de suelo productivo presentase, dado que en el escenario de innovacin los crecimientos productivos cobran ms relevancia que los residenciales. La revisin del proceso de calibracin, y de la definicin de los cambios introducidos en cada escenario podran ayudar a comprender mejor el comportamiento de las demandas en este ltimo caso.
5 Discusin y conclusiones
El diseo de un modelo sencillo, aplicable en entornos metropolitanos que permita la estimacin de demandas de suelo urbano en el contexto de diferentes escenarios futuros; y que adems lo haga a partir de informacin fcilmente accesible, constituye el principal objetivo inmediato de este trabajo. Para ello se han empleado dos laboratorios metropolitanos como son la Regin Urbana de Madrid y la Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada. En este sentido, y a la vista de los resultados mostrados, se puede concluir que el modelo, de una forma muy sencilla, reproduce el comportamiento para el perodo comprendido entre los aos 1990 y 2000, y que posteriormente simula unos resultados claramente diferenciados para los tres escenarios establecidos, tanto a nivel de demandas residenciales como productivas, en las dos reas de estudio. Se muestra as como una herramienta exploratoria til para complementar el diseo de los escenarios, ya de por s interesante para su aplicacin en la planificacin metropolitana. No obstante las limitaciones del modelo son amplias, derivadas en un primer lugar de la falta de una fecha adicional para la validacin de los resultados; o de la falta de ciertos factores con una relacin evidente, como podran ser todos aquellos aspectos relacionados con el planeamiento. Otro objetivo final del trabajo, y del proyecto de investigacin en el que se enmarca el planteamiento de los modelos y escenarios (Proyecto SIMURBAN) es la inclusin de nuevos instrumentos facilitadores de las decisiones en el planeamiento, y el incremento de la capacidad de adaptacin y respuesta de los planes. En este contexto el diseo y planteamiento de escenarios futuros, en este caso escenarios exploratorios externos,, unido a la obtencin de diversos perfiles de demandas de ocupacin de suelo, podra constituir un instrumento til para la ayuda en la toma de decisiones metropolitanas, y ser incorporado, con mayor o menor grado de adaptacin, en los instrumentos de planeamiento, como posible avance hacia planes ms flexibles o adaptables a la realidad (Soria, Valenzuela y Aguilera, 2009) que hacen ms operativo el actual Plan Ley. No en vano, un claro ejemplo de ello queda patente en las previsiones de calificacin de suelo llevadas a cabo en mltiples planes (territoriales y sobre todo municipales) redactados y aprobados recientemente, que sin embargo hoy da resultan ciertamente inadecuadas en el contexto econmico actual. En este sentido y de forma prctica, la disposicin de diversos escenarios de demanda podra, por ejemplo, establecer diferentes etapas sucesivas de calificacin y ocupacin de suelo en los planes, que se iran activando a medida que la situacin real se dirige hacia uno u otro escenario, y se cumplen los objetivos del plan, que podran ser monitorizados igualmente. Finalmente, el ltimo de los objetivos del trabajo est en relacin con la integracin de estas demandas futuras, generadas a travs de la Dinmica de Sistemas, con modelos de simulacin y localizacin espacial basados en SIG y EMC, autmatas celulares, etc; permitindose as una integracin del factor tiempo en estos ltimos. A este respecto consideramos que los resultados de este trabajo, unidos a las simulaciones espaciales, podran ayudar a localizar espacialmente las
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caractersticas territoriales de estos escenarios y a evaluar sus consecuencias (ya sean positivas o negativas) sobre la accesibilidad, el riesgo, el paisaje, etc, que podran facilitar la disminucin de la incertidumbre en la toma de decisiones (Faludi y Van der Valk, 1994; Prato, 2007; Carsjens, 2009), y por tanto una mejora de las condiciones decisorias en las que los procesos de planeamiento tienen lugar.
6 Agradecimientos
Trabajo financiado por el proyecto SIMURBAN del Ministerio de Educacin y Ciencia (MEC Espaa) a travs de la convocatoria de 2006 de proyectos del Plan nacional de Investigacin cientfica, Desarrollo e Innovacin 2004-2007, Programa nacional de Ciencias Sociales, Econmicas y Jurdicas (Referencia SEJ2007-66608-C04-00/ GEOG).
Referencias bibliogrficas
Aguilera, F (2008): Anlisis espacial para la ordenacin eco-paisajstica de la Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada. Tesis Doctoral. Universidad de Granada. Aracil, J. y Gordillo, F. (1997): Dinmica de Sistemas. Alianza Universidad Textos. Madrid. Barredo, J.I y Gmez, M. (2008): Toward a set of IPCC SRES urban land use scenarios:modelling urban land use in the Madrid region. En Paegelow, M and Camacho, M.T (Eds) Modelling Environmental Dynamics. Springer-Verlag. Berln Borjerson, L.; Hojer, M.; Dreborg, K.H.; Ekvall, T y Finnvenden, G. (2006): Scenario types and techniques: Towards a users guide. Futures, vol 38, pp 723-739. Carsjens, G.J (2009): Supporting Strategic Spatial Planning. Planning Support Systems for the spatial planning of metropolitan landscapes. Tesis Doctoral, Universidad de Wageningen, Cheng, J; Masser, I (2003): Urban growth pattern modelling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China. Landscape and Urban Planning, vol 62, 199-217. Consejera de Obras Pblicas y Transportes (1999): Plan de Ordenacin del Territorio de la Aglomeracin Urbana de Granada. Junta de Andaluca. De Miguel, R. (2008) Planificacin territorial, gobierno y gobernanza metropolitana en las grandes ciudades espaolas. Boletn de la AGE, N 48, pp 355-374 De Santiago Rodrguez, E. (2007): Madrid, ciudad nica. Pautas y lgicas espaciales recientes en la regin madrilea, Urban, n 12, pp. 8-33. Dreborg, K.H. (2004): Scenarios and structural uncertainty: explorations in the field of sustainable transport. Tesis doctoral. Real Instituto Tecnolgico de Estocolmo. European Environment Agency (2006) Urban Sprawl in Europe. EEA Report N10/2006. ESPON Project 3.2, (2006) Spatial scenarios and orientations in relation to the ESDP and Cohesion policy. Final Report. European Spatial Planning Observation Network, Bruselas. Faludi, A. y Van der Valk, A. (1994): Rule and order. Dutch planning doctrine in the Twentieth century. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
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Feria, J. M. (2004): Problemas de definicin de las reas metropolitanas en Espaa. Boletn de la A.G.E; No 38 , pp. 85-99. Fernndez, D. (2004): Bases para la evaluacin ambiental y territorial del rea Metropolitana de Granada. Congreso Nacional de Medio Ambiente. Colegio Nacional de Fsicos. Madrid. Forrester, J (1969): Urban Dynamics, Productivity Pres. Portland. Goded, M (2000): La caja de herramientas de la prospectiva estratgica. Cuadernos de LIPS. Gmez, M. y Barredo J.I. (2005): Sistemas De Informacin Geogrfica y Evaluacin Multicriterio En La Ordenacin Del Territorio. Ed. Ra-Ma, Madrid. Guhathakurta, S, (2001). Urban Modelling as Story telling: Using Simulation Models as a Narrative, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis Working Paper No. 37, ISSN: 1467-1298. Gutirrez Puebla, J., (2004). Produccin de suelo industrial en la Comunidad de Madrid. Anales de Geografa, 24, 169-192. Hendriks, P y Vriens, D (2000): From Geographical Information Systems to Spatial Group Decission Support Systems. A Complex Itinerary. Geographical and Environmental Modelling, vol 4, no 1m pp 83-104. INE (Instituto nacional de Estadstica) (2008). Padrn de habitantes 2008. www.ine.es. JRC (Joint Research Centre) (2007): PRELUDE PROJECT. http://www.eea.europa.eu/multimedia/interactive/prelude-scenarios/ [Junio 2009] Lopez Klocker, C. y Bosque Sendra, J, (2005): SIG y Dinmica de sistemas, X Conferencia Iberoamericana de SIG, San Juan de Puerto Rico, septiembre de 2005, 10 p. Lpez de Lucio, R. (2003). Transformaciones territoriales recientes en la regin urbana de Madrid, Urban, 8, pp. 124-161. Menor, J. (2000): La Vega de Granada: transformaciones agrarias recientes en un espacio periurbano. Ed Universidad de Granada, Granada. Ministerio de Vivienda (2006): Atlas Estadstico de las reas Urbanas en Espaa 2004. Ministerio de Vivienda. Madrid. Nijkamp, P. y Blaas, E. (1994). Input Assessment and Evaluation in Transportation Planning. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Luca, C(2007): Generative platform for urban and regional design. Automation in Construction, vol 16, pp 70 77 OSE (2006): Informe de la Sostenibilidad en Espaa 2006. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. Madrid. Ott, T. y Swiaczny, F. (2001). Time-Integrative geographic information systems. Management and analysis of spatio-temporal data. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. Peterson, G.D.; Cumming, G.S. y Carpenter, S.R (2003) Scenario Planning: a tool for conservation in a uncertain world. Conservation biology, vol 17, n2, pp 358-366 Pettit, C. y Pullar, D. (2004) A way forwar for land use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol 31, pp 213-233. Plata Rocha, W; Gmez Delgado, M y Bosque Sendra J (2009) Cambios de usos del suelo y expansin urbana en la Comunidad de Madrid (1990-2000). Scripta Nova. Revista Electrnica de Geografa y Ciencias Sociales, vol. XII, nm. 293. http://www.ub.es/geocrit/sn/sn-293.htm Prato, T. (2007): Evaluating land use plans under uncertainty. Land Use Policy, vol 24, pp 165174. Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009 Pgina 79 de 190
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Ravetz, J. (2009): Agenda for Integration with Peri-urban land-use relationships. PLUREL MEETING. Soria, J.A.; Valenzuela, L.M. y Aguilera,F. (2009): The incidence of planning in the growth and change of the Metropolitan Area of Granada. City Futures. Madrid, Junio 2009. Stillwell, J.S. Geertmaan, S. y Openshaw, S. (eds) (1999): Developments in geographical information and planning. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg. Valenzuela, L.M; Aguilera, F; Soria, J.A. y Molero, E. (2008): Designing and assessing of development scenarios for metropolitan patterns. En Paegelow, M. y Camacho, M.T (eds.): Modelling Environmental Dynamics. Springer . Verburg, P.H., Schot, P., Dijst, M., y Veldkamp, A. (2004): Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. Geojournal, vol 61(4), pp. 309-324.
Notas:
1 Entendidos como escenarios posibles (es decir, que se mueven en el pensamiento futuro de lo hipottico) en los que los factores condicionantes se encuentran del alcance de la accin del planificador (en este caso se trata de factores en relacin con la situacin socioeconmica). 2 El Proyecto SIMURBAN en ulteriores etapas trabajar con modelos de simulacin espacial para ubicar las diferentes demandas de crecimiento establecidas en los escenarios planteados en este trabajo. www.geogra.uah.es/simurban/ 3 Los valores de renta para la Comunidad de Madrid: Renta bruta disponible en los hogares. http://www.madrid.org/iestadis/fijas/estructu/economicas/datosimpositivos/estructuirfdm.htm. Los valores de renta para Granada estn expresados en Renta declarada en el IRPF municipal/persona
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Modelizacin de los factores de crecimiento urbano como aporte a la sostenibilidad. Estudio de caso: Manizales Colombia
Paula Andrea Cifuentes Ruiz
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Arquitecta, MSC en Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Universidad Nacional de Colombia Doctoranda Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo Universidad Politcnica de Catalua Email: paula.cifuentes@catunesco.upc.edu
Resumen
En el presente estudio se propone una metodologa para el estudio de los factores que han contribuido al crecimiento de la ciudad de Manizales (Colombia) en una regresin de 153 aos. La espacializacin de la ciudad se ha hecho por medio de Sistemas de Informacin Geogrfica SIG, se han generado mapas asociados a 16 factores incidentes (naturales, sociales, culturales y econmicos). Los datos del SIG se han procesado mediante capas tipo raster, obteniendo matrices numricas para diferentes factores causales que han sido analizados por medio del mtodo multicriterial de Anlisis de Componentes Principales ACP. El crecimiento para cada periodo se considera funcin de los factores naturales y de distancia, los cuales interactan entre s, dando como resultado el patrn de urbanizacin para cada perodo de tiempo (Variable de urbanizacin). Descriptores: Modelizacin de la sostenibilidad, crecimiento urbano y planificacin territorial. * * *
Title: Modeling urban growth factors as contribution to sustainability. Case study: Manizales Colombia Abstract: This study proposes a methodology for studying the factors that have contributed to the growth of the city of Manizales (Colombia) in a regression of 153 years. The spatialization of the city has made through Geographic Information Systems GIS, maps were generated 16 factors associated with incidents (natural, social, cultural and economic).
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The data have been processed through GIS raster layers, obtaining numerical matrices for different causal factors that have been analyzed by the method multicriterial Principal Component Analysis PCA. The growth for each period is considered depending on the distance and natural factors, which interact with each other, resulting in the pattern of urbanization for each time period (variable urbanization). Descriptors: Sustainability modeling, urban growth and territorial planning
1 Introduccin
El incremento de la poblacin mundial, el crecimiento urbano, el acelerado proceso de urbanizacin, y sus repercusiones sobre el medio natural han provocado a lo largo de la historia desequilibrios ambientales que se han ido convirtiendo en temas recurrentes de diagnstico y anlisis en diferentes reuniones de organismos internacionales. A partir de la dcada de los aos setenta es abordado por primera vez el tema del crecimiento en la reunin del Club de Roma (Meadows, D. et al., 1972) que buscaba discutir sus conclusiones con los gobiernos, las universidades y medios diversos, y proponer sugerencias de problemas a nivel mundial, las cuales son el punto de partida para iniciativas puestas en ejecucin en los niveles ms altos de la toma de decisiones, pblicas y privadas, con el objeto de fomentar cambios de factores estratgicos globales. Los resultados alertaban sobre los riesgos del crecimiento acelerado y proponan un cambio profundo tanto en el mbito ecolgico como en el social, mediante cambios tecnolgicos, culturales e institucionales, con el objetivo de evitar que la huella ecolgica de la humanidad sobrepasase la capacidad de carga del sistema planetario. El tema de la Sostenibilidad de los asentamientos humanos es tratado en las Conferencias de las Naciones Unidas sobre los Asentamientos Humanos: Hbitat I en 1976 y UN Hbitat II en1996, en la cual Boutros-Ghali, el Secretario General del Centro de las Naciones Unidas para los Asentamientos Humanos admite que vamos dirigidos hacia un nuevo siglo urbano, en el cual habr inmensas aglomeraciones, megaciudades, que concentrarn ms gente de lo que permiten las infraestructuras, y frente a ello debe implementarse una situacin urbana mejor administrada (UNESCO, 1999). Cabe destacar un informe de gran trascendencia mundial en el que se reconoce ampliamente el problema de los lmites del crecimiento, Nuestro Futuro Comn o llamado tambin Informe Brundtland en 1987 para la Comisin Mundial sobre Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo de las Naciones Unidas, donde se acua y define el trmino Desarrollo Sostenible bajo la premisa: es el que satisface las necesidades del presente, sin comprometer la capacidad para que las futuras generaciones puedan satisfacer sus propias necesidades. (WECD, 1987). As queda abierto un campo de reflexin y anlisis sobre el crecimiento y los modelos de desarrollo implantados a escala global y los impactos sobre el medio natural en todo el planeta y las repercusiones que ello tiene a futuro.
La humanidad se est preocupando y es consciente de que nos adentramos en un mundo insostenible, es por eso que desde entonces se han continuado realizando numerosos estudios, informes, predicciones, sobre la relacin entre los bienes de la tierra y nuestros modelos de desarrollo. En el caso del estudio del crecimiento urbano, encuentra cada da nuevos retos debido a los impactos ambientales, sociales, econmicos y culturales que comprenden los procesos de urbanizacin. En las ltimas dcadas se han producido cambios importantes en los patrones de crecimiento de la poblacin del planeta. Segn datos de Naciones Unidas (2006), se viene asistiendo a un proceso de urbanizacin global y acelerado. Segn Satterthwaite, (2006), en Amrica Latina y el Caribe se prev que la poblacin aumentar desde 394 millones hasta 609 millones habitantes entre los aos 2000 y 2030. En Latinoamrica se han realizado diferentes estudios e investigaciones sobre el crecimiento urbano, asociados a la marginacin social, a los riesgos y a los desastres, al paisajismo y a la gobernabilidad (Mertins, 2007; Parrado, 2001; Prez, 2005 & Vlez, 1997, entre otros), pero son pocos los estudios para conocer cientficamente la evolucin de los patrones de urbanizacin y sus factores causales en las ciudades de gran tamao, y mucho menos en ciudades intermedias. Se destacan principalmente de manera reciente, investigaciones en Chile que son pioneras en este tipo de estudios desde hace ms de 20 aos (Gaete, 2005; Azcar et. al., 2003; Azcar & Sanhueza, 2003), se encuentran tambin en Venezuela algunos estudios de metropolizacin y desigualdades sociales y territoriales como el presentado por Barrios (2008), en el caso de Colombia se encuentran estudios aislados en ciudades grandes como Bogot y Cali (Tarchpulos, 2003; Simn, 2003) aunque generalmente se quedan en el mbito acadmico y no alcanzan a ser aplicados, y en ciudades intermedia de la regin a la que pertenece la ciudad de estudio no existen antecedentes de investigaciones y estudios aplicados especficamente al anlisis de los factores causales de crecimiento de estas ciudades. Con el estudio del crecimiento de una ciudad, se pueden apreciar los cambios en su estructura y la cantidad de poblacin que esta posee. Al respecto dice Wallner (1975) que el aumento demogrfico de la ciudad en un pas en vas de desarrollo se debe a las migraciones, al abandono precipitado e indiscriminado del campo, a la incorporacin de municipios limtrofes, o la ereccin de las ciudades satlites, que se hallan vinculadas funcionalmente a las grandes ciudades. Autores como Berry et. al. (1976); Trivelli (1981); Ratcliffe (1996); Ascher (1992) atribuyen el crecimiento urbano al incremento del valor del suelo, anotan que los valores del suelo rural se van incrementando a medida que se incorporan a la ciudad, pero que este incremento es slo el comienzo de una disputa de los valores del suelo entre reas urbanas. Por otro lado, autores como Haig (1927); Clark (1947); Hoyt (2005), dicen que dada la competencia por el suelo urbano, aquellos espacios de mejor accesibilidad adquieren mayor valor, al ser los sectores de mayor demanda. Las vas se convierten en factores importantes de crecimiento urbano. Otro factor que ha sido protagonista en la configuracin del espacio urbano
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es la economa, Ascher (1992); Garreau (1991); estudian las relaciones econmicas entre los diferentes sectores de la ciudad y su influencia en la morfologa urbana. Sin embargo existen otros factores que pueden incidir en el crecimiento de una ciudad como son la topografa y los equipamientos (educativos, de salud, culturales, cvicos o administrativos, entre otros). Segn De Mattos (2009), en Latinoamrica el crecimiento urbano ha desencadenado nuevas modalidades de expansin metropolitana, donde la suburbanizacin, la policentralizacin, la polarizacin social, la segregacin residencial, la fragmentacin de la estructura urbana, etc., aparecen como rasgos destacados de una nueva geografa urbana. Para Parrado (2001), en algunas ciudades de Amrica Latina, ha sido un importante factor de crecimiento urbano, el surgimiento de nuevas zonas residenciales, comercios, equipamientos y servicios destinados a grupos sociales cada vez ms segregados espacialmente. En este marco, diversas actividades se han ido desplegando hacia lugares especficos en la periferia, originando nuevos focos de crecimiento para la localizacin de actividades de alta tecnologa y servicios especializados y al mismo tiempo, la generacin de una serie de actividades como servicios comerciales a gran escala. As, el patrn de la ciudad compacta da paso a otro, de una estructura policntrica, la cual ha sido impulsada por las fuerzas del mercado. Se hace evidente entonces, la necesidad de evaluar las causas del crecimiento urbano y determinar los factores que ms han influido en el estado actual de la ciudad, como una contribucin a la toma de decisiones y a la actuacin sobre las comunidades y territorios en constante crecimiento.
2 Objetivo y Metodologa
El objetivo de esta investigacin es analizar el crecimiento urbano de la ciudad intermedia de Manizales desde 1854 ao de fundacin de la ciudad, hasta el ao 2003, identificando los factores de crecimiento que ms incidencia han tenido en la expansin de la misma.
2.1 Cuantificacin del crecimiento El incremento de la superficie urbana de la ciudad de Manizales se ha cuantificado en un periodo de 153 aos. Para la identificacin de los factores histricos se realizaron interpretaciones de fuentes como Escobar (1997); Barreneche (2003); Muoz (1999); Robledo (1996); Esguerra (1997, 1993); Giraldo (1991); y Valencia (1990), ya que no existen consolidados histricos que permitan determinar la evolucin de todos los equipamientos de la ciudad de Manizales a travs de su historia. Tambin ha sido fundamental la informacin suministrada por la Secretaria de Planeacin Municipal y la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, dicha informacin ha sido interpretada por los SIG Arcview 3.2 y Arcmap 9.1. Estas herramientas de anlisis espacial han permitido visualizar los patrones de crecimiento y los factores causales que han guiado las
transformaciones urbanas de la ciudad de estudio. A partir de dicha informacin, se pudieron construir tres tipos de variables: Variables Naturales, Variables de Distancia y la Variable de Urbanizacin. Variables Naturales: estn conformadas por los factores naturales que propician o limitan el crecimiento del suelo urbano (Tabla 1). Conformadas por las variables Modelo Digital de Elevaciones-ELEV y Pendiente del Terreno-PEND (ver Figura 1).
Tabla 1: Listado de Variables Naturales
Figura 1: Ejemplo variable natural. Modelo Digital de Elevaciones y Pendiente del Terreno
Variables de Distancia: corresponden a las distancias de los diferentes puntos del terreno a algunos elementos relevantes en el crecimiento urbano, tales como equipamientos, se calculan para cada ao considerado en el estudio (ver Tabla 2) y se representan grficamente en la Figura
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3 con el ejemplo de la variable Parques y zonas verdes-PARQ, para cada periodo .
Tabla 2: Listado de variables de Distancia
Ao PARQ-1884 (1854-1884)
Ubicacin equipamiento
Distancia a equipamiento
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PARQ-1949(1936-1949)
PARQ -1935(1925-1935)
PARQ-1924(1885-1924)
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PARQ-1999(1980-1999)
PARQ-1979(1967-1979)
PARQ-1966(1950-1966)
Variable de urbanizacin: esta variable toma el valor de 1 cuando se trata de terreno urbanizado, y 0 en caso contrario (ver Figura 4). Con estas variables se analizaron los factores principales que han influido en la expansin urbana a lo largo de la historia de la ciudad de Manizales en diferentes periodos de aos presentados en la Tabla 3 a continuacin.
PARQ-2003(1999-2003)
Figura 2: Ejemplo de Variable Parques. Distancias a Parques y zonas verdes-PARQ por periodos
Tabla 3: Periodos de crecimiento urbano de Manizales analizados
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Figura 3: Variable Urbana URBA por periodos
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3 Resultados
3.1 rea de estudio La ciudad de Manizales se encuentra en la regin centro occidente de la cordillera central de Colombia. Es la capital del departamento de Caldas, cuenta con una poblacin aproximada de 414.389 habitantes segn el censo nacional de 2005 (DANE, 2005) experimentando un incremento en su poblacin de 85762.70 habitantes en 1935 a 239140.00 habitantes en 1973, hasta llegar en el ao 2003 a registrar 402914.00 habitantes. La ciudad se encuentra localizada a 2.150 msnm. Se caracteriza por una precipitacin anual entre 1600-3000 mm (IDEA, 2005), con una temperatura promedio anual calculada en 17oC, su clima caracterstico es ecuatorial de montaa. Se ha tomado como rea de estudio especfica el permetro urbano de la ciudad de Manizales para el ao 2003. Los datos espaciales se han manejado en formato raster, con tamaos de pxel de 10 metros por 10 metros. Lo anterior significa que el terreno se ha dividido en celdas cuadradas, y con toda la informacin disponible se han elaborado los mapas temticos. Cada mapa constituye en realidad una matriz con los datos de cada factor, fcilmente exportable a otros formatos de archivo para su anlisis numrico. 3.2 Anlisis de Componentes Principales Con el objetivo de identificar los factores ms influyentes en el proceso de urbanizacin de la ciudad de estudio en cada perodo histrico, se utiliza el mtodo de Anlisis de componentes Principales ACP. Se ha tomado una porcin del total de los datos disponibles. La muestra se obtiene mediante la Teora de Muestreo Aleatorio, la cual recomienda tomar un nmero similar de individuos (celdas o unidades de terreno, en este caso) de las poblaciones bajo estudio, que en este caso son dos, una de celdas urbanizadas, y otra de celdas sin urbanizar. Con esto, se evita la dependencia estadstica de una de las poblaciones y es condicin necesaria para asegurar una ptima clasificacin de los individuos, es decir, que exista una probabilidad origen y un error de clasificacin igual para cada individuo de ambas poblaciones (Dillon & Goldstein, 1986). Con la ayuda del Sistema de Informacin Geogrfica y del programa MatLab (Matworks, 2002) se ha obtenido de manera aleatoria una muestra de 1000 datos, 500 de los cuales corresponden a celdas urbanizadas y 500 sin urbanizacin, para cada ao bajo estudio. De esta manera, se obtienen muestras para los aos 1854, 1884, 1924, 1935, 1949, 1966, 1979, 1999 y 2003. Las variables involucradas en cada perodo dependen de la disponibilidad de informacin y de la dinmica de la ciudad, que es diferente para cada ao. La decisin del nmero de factores a utilizar se toma por medio del criterio de Kaiser que especifica la retencin de todo componente con un valor mayor a 1 (Diaz de Rada, 2002), de esta
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forma, los resultados se pueden interpretar ms fcilmente. La matriz de componentes muestra valores que van de -1 a 1, y reflejan la importancia relativa de cada variable. Los valores cercanos a 0 indican nula importancia de esa variable. Los valores cercanos a 1 indican influencia muy alta y directa de esa variable, como se observa en las Tablas 4 y 5 a continuacin.
Tabla 4: Tabla resumen 1854-1966
Tabla 5. Tabla resumen 1979-2003
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Puede notarse que en todos los perodos, para el componente 1, las variables ms influyentes tienen relacin directa con distancia a equipamientos, caminos de arriera y vas, y relacin contraria con la variable drenajes, lo cual invita a pensar que la cercana a equipamientos es un factor clave para establecer lugares de habitacin en esta poca, mientras la distancia a cauces acta de forma contraria. A partir de 1966, debido al crecimiento de la ciudad, la situacin urbana se complejiza, y surgen tres componentes en el anlisis. Para los tres ltimos periodos de aos analizados en esta investigacin: 1979, 1999 y 2003, se marca una tendencia de homogeneidad entre los factores de cada periodo. El primer componente sigue estando relacionado con la distancia a equipamientos y la variable elevaciones, reforzando la hiptesis de la importancia de este tipo de variables en el establecimiento de lugares construidos. El segundo componente tiene relacin con la pendiente y la industria, y el tercero con la cercana a drenajes. El factor cercana a universidades pierde relevancia en el ao 2003.
4 Conclusiones
Con la presente investigacin se ha logrado conocer cmo ha sido el crecimiento de la ciudad de Manizales y los factores que han influido para su estructuracin urbana y estado actual, a partir de la informacin disponible. A partir de los resultados del ACP se puede concluir que variables Vas (VIAS) y Parques (PARQ) son determinantes para el crecimiento de la ciudad de Manizales desde su fundacin y se encuentran presentes a lo largo de todos los periodos estudiados influyendo de manera positiva al aumento de la urbanizacin de la ciudad de estudio. Desde el periodo 1924 las industrias y las variables naturales como las elevaciones se encuentran entre los factores ms influyentes en el crecimiento de la ciudad hasta el periodo 1966 en el que comienzan a registrarse ms urbanizacin a causa de la existencia de equipamientos educativos, de salud, y especiales como el aeropuerto. El factor drenajes muestra que desde el periodo 1966 hasta el periodo 2003 influye tambin en el crecimiento de la ciudad, lo que podra atribuirse al crecimiento de los barrios informales. Metodolgicamente, la propuesta presentada tiene como caracterstica la asociacin del componente espacial al anlisis (es decir una mirada al territorio de manera espacial, apoyada en SIG), incorporando con ello especificidad al estudio. Cada dato existe en realidad; no se trata de una abstraccin, ni de un indicador subjetivo, sino de un valor medible. En este caso, se utilizan mapas en SIG con informacin asociada que permiten la generacin de datos que pueden aprovecharse con mtodos de clculo adecuados, para obtener respuestas numricas, que a su vez, pueden ser traducidas nuevamente a mapas. Es decir, puede pasarse de un mapa a una matriz numrica, o viceversa, segn se requiera.
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Se resalta la importancia de los mtodos estadsticos para modelar el tema del crecimiento urbano. En los mtodos empleados en la presente investigacin, el comportamiento de las variables cumple los requisitos para la aplicacin de estos procedimientos, tambin resulta til para identificar relaciones entre las variables utilizadas y la presencia o ausencia de urbanizacin. En este sentido, a partir de los resultados obtenidos, resulta evidente que existe una fuerte relacin con gran predominio entre las pendientes, las zonas verdes de la ciudad, las vas, los equipamientos, y la existencia de urbanizacin. Este resultado confirma la interdependencia socio-natural del fenmeno de crecimiento urbano, y la importancia que tienen adems del incremento de la poblacin, las variables relacionadas con el medio ambiente y los aspectos econmicos.
Referencias
Azcar, G., et. al., (2003). Cambio en los patrones de crecimiento en una ciudad intermedia: el caso de Chilln en Chile Central. Revista eure, Vol. XXIX, N 87. Azcar, G. and Sanhueza, R. (2003). La incidencia de factores regionales y locales en el crecimiento urbano de Chilln. Revista Urbano, enero, vol. 6, nmero 7. Universidad del Bo Bo (2003). Ascher, F. (1992). Metpole. Ou Lavenir des villes, Editions Odile Jacob. Barreneche, G. (2003). Historia urbano ambiental de Manizales. Vivienda y ecosistema. Tesis de Maestra en Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo. Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Manizales. Berry, M. et. al. (1976).The geography of economics systems. Pretince-Hall New Jersey. Clark, C. (1947). Population growth and land use, Macmillan, Londres. DANE Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadstica. (2005). Poblacin censada despus de compensada por omisiones de cobertura geogrfica (1,22%) y contingencia de transferencia (0,26%), en 1973, 1985, 1993 y 2005, por reas, segn departamentos. informacin del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadstica DANE. De Mattos, C. (2002). Metropolizacin y suburbanizacin. Revista EURE, n 27. Santiago de Chile. Diaz de Rada, V. (2002). Tcnica de Anlisis Multivariante para investigacin social y comercial. Ra-Ma Editorial. Dillon, W. y M. Goldstein. (1986). Multivariate anlisis. Methods and applications. Ed. John Wiley and Sons Ltda. Escobar, J. (1997). Transformaciones urbanas. Arquitectura Republicana en Manizales. Manizales: Universidad de Caldas. Esguerra, J. (1997). Construccin de una imagen de prosperidad 1905-1935, Revista Arquitectura Republicana de Manizales. Manizales. Esguerra, J. (1993). La Reconstruccin de Manizales en los aos Veinte Implicaciones Ideolgicas, Polticas y Culturales. Tesis Maestra Historia y Teora de la Arquitectura. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Gaete, H. (2005).Hacia un modelo de administracin y gestin urbanismo para ciudades intermedias. El caso del Gran Concepcin en la Regin del Bo-Bo, Chile. Tesis Doctoral. Departament de Construccions Arquitectniques I. Garreau, J. (1991). Urban Sprawl in a U.S. Metropolitan Area. Doubleday, New York. Pgina 94 de 190 Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009
Giraldo, H. (1991). Tratamientos de conservacin del patrimonio urbanstico y arquitectnico Cdigo de Construcciones y urbanizaciones de Manizales. Alcalda Municipal y Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales. Haig, R. (1927). Regional survoy of N. Vor/t ancf its environs major economics factors in metropolitan growth and arrengoment. Hoyt, H. (2005). The structure and growth of residential neignahborhoods: 1939. Progress in Human Geography, Vol. 29, No. 3, 321-325. IDEA, Grupo de Trabajo Acadmico en Hidrulica y ambiental. Instituto de Estudios Ambientales IDEA. (2005). Proyecto de Investigacin. Cuencas experimentales urbanas en Colombia. Caso Manizales. Fase 2. Complementacin, Anlisis e Interpretacin de la Informacin 2005-2007 Convocatoria DIMA. Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Manizales. MATWORKS Inc. MATLAB. (2002). Documentation-Neural Network Toolbox, Version 6.5.0.180913, Release. Meadows, D. et al. (1972). Los lmites del crecimiento, El pas/Aguilar. Mertins, G., (2007). El crecimiento moderno especial-urbano en Barranquilla: Planeacin pblica oficial o manejo del sector privado? Memorias Revista Digital de Historia y Arqueologa desde el Caribe. Universidad del norte. Muoz, J. (1999). Patrimonio Urbanstico, Arquitectnico y Artstico del municipio de Manizales. CD-ROM Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Departamento de Arquitectura. Manizales. Naciones Unidas. (2006).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, Nueva York. Divisin de Poblacin, Departamento de Asuntos Econmicos y Sociales, Naciones Unidas. Parrado, C. (2001). Metodologa para la ordenacin del territorio bajo el prisma de la sostenibilidad (Estudio de su aplicacin en la ciudad de Santa Fe de Bogot D.C), Tesis Doctoral, Departamento de Ingeniera Minera y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Politcnica de Catalua Prez, P. (2005). Buenos Aires: Ciudad Metropolitana y Gobernabilidad, Revista Estudios Demogrficos y Urbanos, septiembre-diciembre, ao/vol. 20, nmero 003, El Colegio de Mxico, A.C. Distrito Federal. Ratcliffe, A. (1996). Estructura y funcin en la sociedad primitiva, 3ra. ed. Pennsula. Robledo, J. (1996). La Ciudad en la Colonizacin Antioquea. Manizales. Editorial Universidad Nacional, Bogot. Satterthwaite, D. (2006). Outside the Large Cities: The Demographic Importance of Small Urban Centres and Large Villages in Africa, Asia and Latin America, Human Settlements Discussion Paper. No. Urban 03. Londres: International Institute for Environment and Development. Simon, A. (2003). Hacia una Nueva Planificacin y Ordenacin Territorial, en la Ciudad de Santiago de Cali, Colombia, Universidad Politcnica de Catalua. Trivelli, P. (1981). Reflexiones en torno a la Poltica nacional de desarrollo urbano, Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios Urbano Regionales EURE, Instituto de Planificacin del Desarrollo Urbano y Regional. Universidad Catlica de Chile, vol. VIII, n 22. Tarchpulos, D. (2003). Formas de crecimiento urbano en Bogot: patrones urbansticos y arquitectnicos en la vivienda dirigida a sectores de bajos ingresos. UNESCO, Programa UIA-CIMES. (1999). Ciudades intermedias y urbanizacin mundial. Ayuntamiento de Lleida. Wallner, E. (1975). Sociologa Conceptos y problemas Fundamentales, Editorial Herder.
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WECD, Comisin Mundial del Medio Ambiente y del Desarrollo. (1987). Nuestro Futuro Comn. Alianza Editorial. Valencia, A. (1990). Manizales en la dinmica colonizadora, 1846-1930. Fondo editorial de la Universidad de Caldas. Manizales. Vlez, F. (1997). Planeacin, crecimiento urbano y cambio social en el centro histrico de la ciudad de Puebla. Mxico: Benemrita Universidad Autnoma de Puebla / Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades Alfonso Vlez Pliego, 248
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Municipal sustainable development possibilities along the USMexico border: an interdisciplinary evaluation effort
Carlos V. Licn1 and Toms Balarezo2
C.V. Licn and T. Balarezo
Swaner Green Space Institute Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning Utah State University 4005 Old Main Hill, Logan UT 84322 United States Email: carlos.licon@usu.edu - Web page: http://www.laep.usu.edu
2
Comisin de Cooperacin Ecolgica Fronteriza Blvd. Toms Fernndez 8069, Cd. Jurez, Chihuahua, Mxico 32470 Email: tbalarezo@cocef.org - Web page: http://www.cocef.org
Abstract
After 15 years of created, the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission (BECC, in Spanish COCEF, Comisin de Cooperacin Ecolgica Fronteriza) is interested in measuring sustainability in the Mexican municipalities along the US-Mexico border. BECC is a bi-national organization created by the Governments of United States and Mexico to help conserve, protect and enhance the environment in the region. This assessment of municipal sustainability helps understand the impact of the BECC actions and guide plans and projects on the region. Sustainability is evaluated through a series of indices. Each one is the result of comparative interpretation of indicators based on a graphic display of weighted interactions of environmental, social, and economic nature. The assessment is conducted through workshops with a group of experts in BECC and Utah State University. Scores, percentages, and rankings are produced by an interactive computer application allowing a stronger and detailed diagnosis for each municipal unit.
Keywords: Sustainability, sustainable development valuation, US-Mexico Border.
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1 Introduction
As part of the side agreements of the North America Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, United States and Mexico, the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission (BECC, in Spanish COCEF, Comisin de Cooperacin Ecolgica Fronteriza) was created in 1993 by US and Mexico. According to their mission, the purpose of BECC is to help conserve, protect and enhance the environment in the US-Mexico border region, through the development and certification of environmental infrastructure projects that incorporate innovative sustainability and public participation concepts (BECC, 2009). After fifteen years of activities, the BECC is interested in measuring their contribution to the sustainability of the Mexican municipalities along the US-Mexico border. This assessment of municipal sustainability can help understand the impact of the Commission actions and guide regional plans and projects on the region. The assessment uses a model to evaluate sustainable development possibilities based on a graphic interpretation of indicators, expressed as limitations to development (Licon, 2003), (Licon, 2006). A team of experts in the BECC and a team in the Swaner Green Space Institute at Utah State University created this assessment. The results of this study will help guide future planning decisions along the 224 municipalities in the Mexican side of the border. 1.1 The US-Mexico Border A two thousand-mile line separates Mexico from United States moving through large urban centers, small rural communities, a wide variety of landscapes, environments and cultures. However, mainly, this line defines a region, where both countries have things in common, together with a wide array of contrasts, differences and issues. The BECC area of action is within a region defined 100 kilometers north of the border and 300 kilometers south. The Mexican border is divided in 224 municipalities with a total population if sixteen million. A municipality is the smallest unit of government in Mexico. Each municipio has a defined territory, an alcalde or mayor a cabildo or council and normally includes more than one city or town. The 300-kilometer buffer defining the Mexican border includes all the capital cities of the six Border States. The intense activities that take place along the border, including growth of cities and towns, commerce and the establishment of industry has not only created a powerful economic driving force, but also immigration to the border in search for employment opportunities. All these movement of investment and people have affected the environment with demands for resources, generation of waste and needs of infrastructure and energy.
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Municipal sustainable development possibilities along the US-Mexico border: an interdisciplinary evaluation effort
Figure 1: The US-Mexico Border Region
1.2 BECC/COCEF The Border Environmental Cooperation Commission, created together with the North American Development Bank, certifies and finances environmental facilities along the US-Mexico border region. In their fifteen years of operations, the BECC has certified more than 140 projects with a total cost of more than three billion dollars (BECC 2009). Throughout these years, the BECC has played a key role to protect the environmental health and to improve the quality of life of the border residents. The BECC has a solid group of experts with deep knowledge of the border, together with access to information and indicators on the region. Recently, the Commission has extended its mandate and is more involved in regional planning efforts on the area. Together with this new role, the agency needs to explain the contribution to the sustainable development of the region in order to provide guidance, leadership, and knowledge, to communities and often, to local, state and federal levels of government.
2 Sustainable development possibilities

Sustainability is understood as a process, directed to promote activities that take in consideration the distribution of benefits and responsibilities of development actions. It is effectively an anthropocentric position since human actions and conditions are the focus of sustainability studies, and by implying that the understanding and conservation of the non-human environmental assets is the path to sustain human life and to pursue higher states of well being. However, it also an environmentally strong position, since the major threat to the quality and quantity of the components of the natural world (non-human) is mainly threatened, from global
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to local scales, by human development, therefore there is a moral responsibility requiring our species to take responsibility in its overuse of the other species life resources. Sustainability, is also a social convention (Roe, 1998), acting as a driving, force even under the possibility of not achieving a sustainable goal in the future. The issue of complexity appears in all these recent theoretical approaches to sustainable development. Roe (1998) argues that complexity is a shared characteristic of the different conceptualizations of sustainability and proposes a multi-referential mode of studying sustainability. This interdisciplinary approach when complexity and uncertainty is high does not eliminate complexity but helps to devise a "compass" or a "map" to "chart out the terrain" on the assumption that there cannot be a single sustainability view. Therefore, in his view, the epistemology of sustainability will be an interactive process between different theoretical approaches. Roe (1998) and Byrne (1999) suggest the initial works into complex systems and complex interactions of the reality of sustainability need a benchmark and an initial approach to help organize information and to establish foundations for future more elaborated and complex works. Sustainable development is a condition of development that needs to consider multiple and inseparable relationships between humans and the environment in their production and process interactions. It is the understanding that the connection between these "worlds" necessarily implies a positive relationship where ecosystem well-being is linked to human well-being. Sustainable development is a human process, or at least is human driven, therefore implies resolving not only humans-nature discrepancies, but also humans-humans development differences, spatial and temporal. These equity issues, consequently, have implications for the rest of the environmental resources and living species. The degree and characteristics of human intervention and the extent of human actions endangers both the humans and the non-human components of the planet. Sustainability is an appropriate paradigm to focus development efforts aware of its distributional implications and the effects of that development on the environmental and the human context. Sustainability also implies developing ways of dealing with human exposure to environmental forces and with human development impacts on the natural world. Human and natural dynamics, together with the long-term view, call for understanding sustainability as a process, rather than a final state. One of the main goals of planning for sustainable development needs to be, engaging a community, state, country, etc. in a process that addresses issues of human and natural wellbeing, with focus and careful understanding of the long-term impacts. Ideally, we should implement and measure sustainability with the holistic, interdisciplinary, and long-term effect demanded by the multiple definitions available. We should also be able to identify with clarity when development is sustainable, and establish a mean to make certain development actions effectively promote a "sustainable" contribution in long and short terms. After assessment, effective implementation and adequate monitoring will guide future development. In summary sustainable development requires identifying, promoting, and
implementing actions that can improve or maintain environmental conditions. At the same time these action should produce and increase human wellbeing in short and long terms. Some initial steps include:
Implement measuring and evaluation strategies that help to establish benchmarks for future more comprehensive research. Focus on linking measurements to understandings of sustainability. Identify to what degree actions do in fact promote sustainable development. Demystify the concept and uncover development actions that seem or are claimed to be "sustainable" when they are not. Work towards comprehensible means to assess sustainability. Search for ways of promoting discussion and consensus on what sustainability should be. Learn from other examples and promote exchange of experiences.
Methodological framework
Soft systems theory provides a methodological framework to operationalize a definition and perform an assessment of sustainable development. Soft systems admit there are multiple perceptions of reality, a more subjective approach to systems thinking and practice (Checkland and Scholes, 1990), (Jackson, 1991). Being interpretive in character, soft systems do not seek to study objective facts or to search for regularities and causal relationships in social reality. The social world is seen as the creative construction of social beings. Approaches towards a soft systems methodology are based on interpretive assumptions. Within the soft systems view, there are several methodologies for problem management. Soft systems understand methodology as a dialectical process, focused in finding assumptions and relationships among participants, and in dealing with individual subjectivities through open debate. The general procedure in soft systems involves four main steps (with variations depending on the particular method):
Identification of assumptions of decision makers or stakeholders. Some methods call this "worldviews" and other method describe this step as establishing a "reference scenario" Representation of the problem, either by creating an "ideal" scenario, by conceiving an opposite view of the perceived situation, or by explicitly stating assumptions adopted. The third step involves some sort of debate to sort out differences between the perceived, ideal, or expected scenario and the existing or reference situation. The comparison takes place in an open debate in which some degree of objectivity is expected to emerge through the debate of subjectivities. A synthesis process of the debated issues. This synthesis is accompanied by an
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evaluation of resources and an in some cases an implementation plan. Sustainability assessment is often performed based on hard systems views and a functionalist paradigm (Jackson, 1991). Conceptualization and definitions of sustainability are based on increasingly subjective assumptions of complex interactions and conflicting goals. These two ends need to need to be tied for implementation purposes. Soft systems can help to bridge this need of connection between measurement and definition. In the process of relating definitions with assessments of sustainability, multiple discussions among decision makers need to take place, as suggested by soft system methodology (Checkland and Scholes, 1990). The key in the implementation success of actions promoting a sustainable development will be in the discussion and debates of the models built by stakeholders and decision-makers. This will not only link quantitative assessments to conceptual definitions, but will also create new definitions to review and will create demands for new indicators (See Figure 2)
Figure 2: Sustainable development within systems approaches context (Licon, 2003), (Jackson, 1991).
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3.1 Graphic Assessment Models The graphic models can help planners and decision-makers to communicate more effectively existing conditions as well as planning goals and strategies toward sustainability. It allows a transparent manipulation of indicators defining sustainability by including indicators in the assessment. This feature helps to monitor the degree of effect each indicator has in the overall index and hence guide planning strategies. The model is flexible ad it allows possibility of testing different scenarios by selecting different indicators. The index is constructed through an interdisciplinary approach assuming there is a relationship between each indicator and the three basic dimensions of sustainability. Some of the models published in the literature deal with conceptual and evaluation issues for sustainability with variations in approaches, data, and methods. Among them are the Campbells triangle of conflicting goals in planning (Campbell 1996), the barometer of sustainability (Prescott-Allen, 1997), (Prescott-Allen, 2001), the triple bottom line (Elkington, 2000), the amoeba model (Bell and Morse, 2008), the sustainability assessment maps, SAM (Clayton and Radcliffe, 1996), and the dashboard of sustainability (Hardy and AtKisson 1999). Some indicator frameworks used include Donella Meadows' flower (Meadows, 1998) and the United Nations pressure-state-response framework (UN, 1996), together with aggregated-indices like the ecological footprint (Wackernagel and Rees, 1996) or the pilot environmental sustainability index (WEF 2000). 3.2 Towards an interdisciplinary model This assessment is based on the assumption that sustainable development can be defined by the combined attention to issues and concerns about the environment, the economy, and society (WCED, 1987). Graphically, this conceptual model incorporates Campbells issues of conflict among pairs of domains, defining three types of possible conflicts when development is not sustainable (1996). These two aspects constitute the starting point to the graphic model operationalized in this work. It starts with a simple idea; an activity can be a restriction for other activities even of a different nature. For example, a decision to use a piece of land for economic production reduces or eliminates its possible use for recreation or for wildlife habitat purposes. If these levels of restrictions can be measured, a graphic representation can be made using a rectangle describing the universe of action and a line dividing this area as the level of restriction defined by the new activity over the original one. This same idea is applied for each of the three elements of sustainability, and then the three rectangles are combined leaving only the overlapping area. The resulting overlap is a triangle where each side represents the base (zero restrictions) for each of the elements considered. The any possible development action (sustainable or not), is found inside this triangle. We will apply this idea to relate activities from each domain of sustainability, and interpret this
relationship as restrictions to activities of the other two. This implies constructing relationships between domains and defining each term using the other two. In this sense, a sustainable economy necessarily means an economic activity that is environmentally friendly and socially responsible. A sustainable society would be a productive and environmentally responsible one, and a sustainable environment will be capable to provide resources and healthy opportunities for its residents. Three kind of restrictions (of social, economic, and environmental nature), each one affecting the other two, result in six clusters of indicators defining the following types of development constraints:
Environmental limitations to economic development refer to the availability or scarcity of resources, land productivity, and in general the environment's carrying capacity for intended or existing economic productive activities. Environmental limitations to social action are related to environmental conditions and their effect on population's health. These restrictions represent the impact of the relationship humans-environment, and are related to the capacity to support a given population. Social limitations of economic activities. The contribution or restrictions the social conditions impose on the productive sector have to do with population skills and education, the availability of labor, the demand for jobs. Also has to do with the demand for products and the potential consumer market the population represents together with their purchasing power. Socio-cultural constraints to environmental activities include the impacts of population on the environment, such as waste generation, pollution, and land uses. Also included in this category are peoples preferences for environmental appropriation such as settlement patterns, densities, outdoor activities, etc. Economic restrictions of environmental action address how the productive sector is affecting the environment. Pollution, waste generation, energy consumption patterns are part of this set of indicators. Economic limitations to social action include the supply of jobs, the income distribution, and the diversity of productive activities among others.
The area of intersection of the resulting triangles defines the area of possible sustainable development. Sustainable development is possible when development activities occur within the limits (or restrictions) imposed to each other by the three dimensions of sustainability (the economy, the environment and the society). The areas where only a pair of domains intersect, describe different kinds of relationships. Issues of justice are related to combinations of social and economic matters; issues of health are discussed in the relationship between the environment and society; and environment-economic relationships are described in terms of efficiency.
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Considering the condition for sustainability requires meeting all the limitations identified, we can say that in order to have a sustainable activity these three conditions of justice, health and efficiency need to be accomplished. The areas outside the limits represent the conflict between pairs of domains as described in Campbell's diagram (1996).
Figure 3: Triangles formed by limitations established among social,environmental and economic domains.
Figure 4: Area of possibilities of sustainable development, located at the intersection of the triangles.
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4 Operationalization process
A computer based template allows to create a workable template for the construction of the graphic assessment of sustainable development possibilities. There were several purposes for this template: First, to develop a general template that would allow the input of existing databases with indicators describing a group of places in the three main domains of sustainability. This means having indicators of the economy, the environment and the social aspects of an array of comparable places. A second purpose was to create a template usable by decision makers and other stakeholders to provide them with means of manipulating data and visualizing the effects of their considerations. A third goal was to make this tool easy to install distribute and use. It is expected this template can generate guidelines to action and make a direct contribution on the implementation of sustainable development efforts directly associated to what is measured. Figure 5 shows the general organization of interconnected worksheets making the assessment flexible, visual, and easy to use. The first sequence of worksheets allows inputting data (a matrix with columns listing indicators and rows geographic units). Additional worksheets in this group help visualize and manipulate values distribution and ranges. A second series of inter-related worksheets help build the evaluation by selecting through a series of options and questions described later in this document. A third part allows to visualize results and to generate different reports. Throughout the workbook, changes made in one worksheet are automatically adjusted in the rest allowing a great degree of interaction and scenario-testing situations.
Figure 5: Assessment templates organization of worksheets.
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4.1 Data To develop the assessment, a technical team in the BECC created a data set with 45 indicators describing the environmental conditions, the economic characteristics and the demographics for 224 municipalities in the Mexican Border Region. To be able to use the indicators in this model, the initial set of indicators grew to 65 from the combination of original measurements to create comparable values. Some examples include population divided by the municipality area to create density, and population projections used to determine growth rate used.
Figure 6: Indicator and performance score value distributions worksheet
The performance score is normalized through the range of values for each indicator category. Figure 6 shows a worksheet used to data distribution for each indicator and its associated performance score distribution. This graph is helpful to identify problems with data and to make adjustments before going through the evaluation process. 4.2 Evaluation Process To create the assessment, the Border Environmental Commission assessment team established regular meetings to work with the template. To build the graphic, the indicators were selected by the team establishing connections between each indicator and the restriction they impose to the other two sectors. This was done on six worksheets corresponding to the six clusters of indicators performances described before. The evaluating team needed to answer three questions to decide whether or not to include an indicator on each of the six worksheets (example of template screen shown in Figure 7):
Should the indicator be considered a descriptor of a particular sector (environmental , social or economic) with influence on another sector? How important? This option weights the selection When the indicator value increases, the sector condition improves? This check defines direct or inverse relationship, i.e. when inflation rates increase, social condition decreases.
Figure 7: One of the six evaluation worksheets
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5 Results
After indicators are selected, the template provides individual scores for each municipality. Individual graphic results are displayed by selecting the unit from a list (example in Figure 8). Group information is also available through rankings of results (Figure 9). The template allows sorting the places by: rankings of sustainable development possibilities, by sector value, by overlap values, or by conflict value. All the values are expressed as percentage of the total possible area of development.
Figure 8: Individual sustainability scores report
Observation of individual graphic patterns helped identify and group municipalities by relevant issues. This part of the project grouped municipalities with common challenges towards sustainability even though they were not necessarily close to each other geographically, or apparently with not many things in common. From the 224 municipality a small group was clearly dominant with higher sustainability scores. This group was followed by municipios with relatively good scores in sustainability but facing important conflicts between social and economic conditions. Another group showed very tight scores requiring comprehensive strategies to address simultaneous issues. In these cases, sustainable development strategies necessarily needed, from the start, combined efforts to resolve environmental, social, and economic challenges. An interesting observation was to discover municipios where the capital
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of the state was located not always ranked in the highest positions with respect to sustainable development possibilities scores, but more in the middle ranks.
Figure 9: Rankings
Figure 10: Scores scatter plots

The template also provided graphic displays of paired scores. This allows identifying trends, associations of results and compactness of scores relationship. The scatter plots made evident one of the first observations during the evaluation work: the need for more environmental information with connection to social and economic characteristics. Building strong assessments of sustainability in the future will require more information about the environmental condition of the places analyzed. This information need is already being addressed by the BECC.This papers covers phase one of the project, working with the existing data available to the BECC. A second phase will examine the geographic distribution of the sustainability scores. Later, phase three will identify data needed to build a stronger and more comprehensive data set, especially with environmental information. There are factors not currently included in the model, and future assessments will need to address the implications for sustainability of important border issues such as shared air and water quality, security, employment opportunities and migration, and other critical aspects of the border life. In summary, some of the findings are:
Municipios can be grouped by relevant issues. There are patterns that help build a better understanding of the border. Next step will be to map these results to review new patterns. Dominant municipios with perceived high quality of life were on top of the list, but other traditionally leading cities and municipios were not ranked among the more sustainable. Large cities like Tijuana, or Hermosillo, state capitals with concentration of industrial activities, political control, were often not in the upper places With the information available, it can be said there are appropriate conditions to engage in sustainable actions in many places along the border Environmental quality is a main issue as economic activities and social characteristics have strong impacts on the physical world. There is good documentation of social or economic conditions, but more indicators for the environment is needed, especially in small rural municipalities. A constant in the assessment was the conflict between the economy and the social dimensions along the border. Economic distributional effects and social productivity are important challenges to increase the sustainability of the border The BECC is comparing results with their knowledge of the place to identify opportunities for action and develop future intervention strategies.
5.1 Model sensitivity Being an assessment based in comparative performance scores, the evaluation became very sensitive to changes, especially when sites were added or removed from the analyzed dataset.
Even though many of the scores of sustainability changed by small amounts, the changes did have an effect on rankings, in some cases making municipios climb or fall several places. This made the evaluation team very aware how the results could have influence in planning decisions by local authorities as local authorities react when they see their community ranked together with other communities they were not considering part of or comparable to. 5.2 Planning Implications The assessment process provided opportunities to discuss how different evaluators interpret indicators and what each measurement means when it considered as an operational argument. The same could be expected when planning and policy decisions are made. The relevance of issues and the number of issues involved to inform the planning process require discussion, and means to understand how these views are turned into implementation actions. The assessment generated through this project attempts to advance in this line. It provides communities (municipios in this case) with clear and understandable connections between what is measured (isolated indicators) and how this is expressed as possibilities or limitations to development (opportunities and conflicts). This knowledge will help stakeholders and decision-makers to take steps in the right direction towards achieving consistent and coherent progress towards sustainability, meaning healthy, fair, and efficient development actions. The BECC implements many of their projects through local agencies, governments, and community organizations. Having a border-wide assessment of sustainable possibilities, together with other associated evaluations, is a powerful tool to focus efforts and resources, and to target the right communities. More than anything else, this initial stage of evaluation should create a lot of discussion among interested parties. Offering an assessment of sustainability together with specific operational indicators of progress and their scores should facilitate the municipios understanding of what it takes to achieve sustainability. This project should also serve to challenge the indicators used to evaluate sustainability. This first phase utilized existing indicators available to all the municipios, but future and more thorough assessments will benefit from improved information in quantity and quality. 5.3 Future Work The results of this first phase will be distributed among involved municipios and other agencies. This should create discussions about indicators used, modes of understanding development, and hopefully a series of observations and suggestions helpful to improve future evaluations. New indicators, especially describing the environment need to be identified and generated for the next phases of this project. New applications of the evaluation model are also explored. This project was possible due to the generous support of the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission and the Swaner Green Space Institute in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning at Utah State University
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6 Bibliography
Bell, S.; Morse, S. (2008). Sustainability Indicators: Measuring the Immeasurable?, London ; Sterling. Border Environmental Cooperation Commission, BECC. (2009). < www.cocef.org > [cited 2009 February]. Byrne, D. (1999). Complexity Theory and the Social Sciences: An Introduction, New York: Routledge. Campbell, S. (1996). Green Cities, Growing Cities, Just Cities?: Urban Planning and the Contradictions of Sustainable Development, Journal of the American Planning Association. 62 (3), p. 296-312. Checkland, P.; Scholes, J. (1990). Soft Systems Methodology in Action, New York: John Wiley & Sons. Clayton, A.M.H.; Radcliffe, N.J. (1996). Sustainability: A Systems Approach, London: Earthscan Publications. Elkington, J. (2000). < http://www.sustainability.co.uk/triple/triple.htm > The Triple Bottom Line in Action. [cited 2000 August]. Hardi, P.; AtKisson, A. (1999). The Dashboard of Sustainability, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada: Consultative Group on Sustainable Development Indicators and International Institute for Sustainable Development. Jackson, M.C. (1991) Systems Methodology for the Management Sciences. Contemporary Systems Thinking, New York: Plenum Press. Licon, C.V. (2003). An Evaluation Model of Sustainable Development Possibilities, Tempe: Arizona State University. Licon, C.V. (2006). Evaluation Model of Sustainable Development Possibilities, in E. Carrera, et al (ed.) I International Conference on Sustainability Measurement and Modelling. Terrassa, Spain. Meadows, D. (1998). Indicators and Information Systems for Sustainable Development: A Report to the Balaton Group, Hartland Four Corners, Vermont: The Sustainability Institute. Prescott-Allen, R. (1997). Barometer of Sustainability: Measuring and Communicating Wellbeing and Sustainable Development, Cambridge UK: IUCN, The World Conservation Union. Prepared and published with the support of the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), The Swiss Agency for Development Cooperation (SDC), and the National Institute of Design, India. Prescott-Allen, R. (2001). The Wellbeing of Nations: A Country-by-Country Index of Quality of Life and the Environment, Washington, DC: Island Press. Roe, E. (1998). Taking Complexity Seriously: Policy Analysis, Triangulation, and Sustainable Development, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. United Nations Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development. (1996). Indicators of Sustainable Development: Framework and Methodologies, New York: United Nations. Wackernagel, M.; Rees, W.E. (1996). Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth, Gabriola Island, BC: New Society. World Commission on Environment and Development. University Press. (1987) Our Common Future, New York: Oxford
World Economic Forum. (2000). Pilot Environmental Sustainability Index: An Initiative of the Global Leaders for Tomorrow Environment Task Force, Davos, Switzerland: WEF, Annual Meeting.
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Computer-based methods for a socially sustainable urban and regional planning

Hermann Koehler, Reinhard Koenig, Frauke Anders, Dominik Kalisch, Jens Steinhoefel
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Bauhaus-University Weimar -- Faculty of Architecture Belvederer Allee 01 - 99425 Weimar - Germany Email: {Hermann.Koehler, Reinhard.Koenig, Frauke.Anders, Dominik.Kalisch, Jens.Steinhoefel} @archit.uni-weimar.de
Abstract
Due to global restructuring and urbanization, urban and regional planning is presented with the great challenge of offering sustainable planning strategies. Through particular consideration of the interaction between spatial and social structures, this research project aims to provide a methodical instrument that helps to factor the social dimension of sustainability into planning. The project comprises three modules. In the first one, a method will be developed, which makes it possible to generate spatial structures with very different characteristics. In the framework of the second module, we first elaborate on graph-based methods for analyzing spatial structures, and secondly we develop an agent-based simulation model for residential segregation. The third module contains an empirical study of the interactions between built structures and socio-spatial organization in the partner city of Dresden. Through the comparison of simulation models and small-scale empirical data, one should be able to derive theoretical concepts which can in turn be used to evaluate specific built structures. Keywords: Social sustainability, urban planning theory and methodology, computer-based planning systems, spatial and agent-based simulation models, graph-based analysis methods, quantitative urban milieu research
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1 Introduction
In urban planning concepts of sustainability, the social dimension has until now been neglected to a great extent. Thus, the consequences that generally recognized urban planning sustainability strategies like densification, mixed use, and polycentrality (Gaebe, 2004, p. 170) have for the social structure of cities are unknown. The unintentional intensification of conflicts that arise from the spatial separation of different population groups should be avoided. There is difficulty in estimating what effects spatial restructuring measures have on the social structure of cities. In addition, suitable methods that enable the qualified evaluation of the influences of spatial structures on the social-spatial organization of the population must urgently be developed. The central question consists of examining how concepts of sustainable city and regional planning can be developed and verified, taking into account the interrelationship between spatial and social structures. On the one hand, the unintended social effects of planning conceived in terms of ecological or economic sustainability should be prevented or estimated in advance, and on the other hand, unintentional social developments should be recognized very early.
2 Sustainability
The general principle of sustainable development that maintains its effect in the long term promises to address the needs of the current world population without interfering in the possibilities of future generations (Hauff, 1987). Sustainability is generally discussed on the ecological, economic and social level, which is why there are often references to the three Es - environment, economy and equity - in English-language literature (Bullard, 2006). Occasionally, these three levels are supplemented by other ones - for example in Spitzner (1997), by the level of values and that of culture. In the international professional discourse on sustainable urban planning, the social dimension of sustainability is treated peripherally at best, in that reference is made to the general influence of built space on human coexistence (Wheeler, 2004; Williams, Burton, & Jenks, 2000). In contrast to the ecological dimension for a socially sustainable development up to now no action principles or aims about which to a great extent agreement exist (Werheit, 2002, p. 94). That the problems of disadvantaged residential areas are meanwhile also perceived from the governmental side is shown by the German project Social City (Soziale Stadt) (cf. the reports of the Bundestransferstelle Soziale Stadt (2009), which tests, in different cities, concrete measures for civil cooperation, the improvement of job market conditions, infrastructure, residences, and the living environment, as well as the design of district centers (Guidelines for the organization of the communal initiative Social City, 2005). The CoMStaR plan approaches the question of socially sustainable urban planning strategies from another vantage point: For us, it is a matter of investigating the interaction between the built urban structure and the social organization of the inhabitants.
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3 Work programm
3.1 Generation of spatial structures (Module 1) For the creation of very detailed spatial-geometric structures that are independent of a grid, we generally rely on the shape grammar procedure (Stiny & Gips, 1971). Using a set of rules that is to be precisely defined, variations of geometric structures are created with this method. Parish & Mller have shown in the area of computer graphics that with this technology, very realistic urban structures can be generated. Duarte, Rocha and Soares (2007) have extended the shape grammar technology to an urban grammar and have demonstrated the generation of a town structure using the example of an urban quarter in Marrakesh. However, the very realistic results require the implementation of a multitude of micro-rules (controlling parameters) for all the combinations of streets and properties that occur. In order to be able to manage the complicated interaction of micro-rules, for further development of their approach, Duarte and colleagues suggest using a genetic algorithm in the search for optimally sustainable structures. The disadvantages of the shape grammar procedure come from the fact that the rules pertain to purely geometrical circumstances and must be fixed at the beginning in great detail. Furthermore, the generative functionality of shape grammar systems is limited to certain typologies. With Duarte and colleagues (2007), this was the dense, historical built structure of an old city quarter in Marrakesh; with Parish & Mller (2001), these are modern, single buildings in Manhattan style. In Module 1 of the CoMStaR project, we will deal with generating typologically extensive settlement patterns, which firstly get by with few controlling parameters and secondly, can be optimized with regard to general criteria of sustainability (energy consumption, daylight exposure, ventilation). In addition, the shape grammar procedure will be combined with an evolutionary strategy, as was used, for example, by Elezkurtaj and Frank (2002) for plan generation. 3.2 Graph analysis & simulation (Module 2) A special form of network analysis in the realm of urban research is represented by the space syntax method (Hillier, 2007; Hillier & Hanson, 1984; Hillier et al., 1976), which has become established for the analysis of urban road networks or residential plans (Fig. 1). With this investigation method, the intensity of the use of different streets is primarily calculated. After the streets are transferred into a view axis network, various centrality measures can be determined (Jansen, 2006, p. 132-138). The investigation of Omer and Gabbay (2007) is especially relevant for the present project, because it associates the calculated values of integration with the distribution of the population according to income, and shows how small-scale population data from geographic information systems (GIS) can be correlated to values of space syntax methods. A restriction of the space syntax method exists in the fact that, until now, the analyses can be
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applied either to the road system of a city or the internal building circulation. There is no connection between both subsystems. To create this connection, and to illustrate and analyze the circulation structure from the apartment to the main street in a continuous graph will be an important component of Module 2 of the CoMStaR project.
Figure 1: Space syntax analysis for the city of London. Source: (Vaughan, Chatford & Ozlem, 2005)
At the interface between urban geography and urban sociology, agent-based systems are used for the simulation of segregation processes (Schelling, 1971, 1978). In the process, the organization of the population at a macro-level is explained by the behavior of individual households at the micro-level. At the same time, the individual decisions about place of residence are dependent on the overall urban population structure, which itself results from the individual decisions (Fig.2).
Figure 2: Households of different social groups occupying dwellings in an abstract infrastructure network graph. Source: (Koenig)
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For our interests, the agent-based system for residential segregation from Benenson (1998) seems especially important, because other investigations on the dynamic behavior of the model were carried out based on it (Portugali, 2000) and qualified proofs of the validity of the simulations could be produced (Benenson, 2004; Benenson, Omer & Hatna, 2002). Another important component of Module 2 of the CoMStaR project will consist in transferring the simulation model of residential segregation onto a graph as a representation of the spatial structure of a city. In this way, using unchanged control parameters for the inhabitant's behavior, the effects of different spatial configurations can be investigated in the model. Further, Module 2 will be concerned with deriving heuristics for the perception of the townspeople amongst each other as a function of the built structure. Pointers can be found, e.g. in the study by Appleyard (1981), in which it was shown that the sum of the residents of a street who know their neighbors is inversely proportionally to the traffic volume of the street; as well as in an investigation by Hinding (2003), in which the communal sense and communication of the residents were clearly dependent on the spatial factors of individual settlement patterns. 3.3 Empirical social space analysis (Module 3) By investigating the interaction between the built urban structure and the social organization of the inhabitants, CoMStaR concentrates upon an aspect that has been neglected until now in the discussion about sustainable urban and regional planning. In so doing, the social space analysis in Module 3 aims at the empiric investigation of these connections. Bernd Hamm has already pointed to the social importance of space: The social and spatial organization of a population are mutually dependent on each other and related to each other: spaces are formed and changed by social activities (), and their design and furnishings have an impact on social relations and problems (Hamm, 1982, p. 28). Concerning the same circumstances, Friedrichs writes: Definable forms of social organization regularly lead to certain forms of spatial organization. Moreover, it remains to be investigated, what repercussions the respective spatial organization has on the social (Friedrichs, 1983, p. 50). The empirical studies carried out during the last 20 years in the field of settlement sociology generally equate space with social space that distinguishes itself by the composition of the population in a certain area. How the population composition of a residential quarter affects the individuals living in it was investigated by considering, for example, the duration of poverty situations (Farwick, 2001). Thus, in the study by Friedrichs and Blasius (2000) although a precise description of the investigation areas is found, built structure no longer play a role in the actual investigation. Only the furnishings of the apartments are given attention. Similar results are ascertained in the test of Schellings tipping point theory by Kecskes and Knble (1988). Here, a distinction was made between the aggregate levels of the house rows and the building block, but a further analysis of the spatial context is missing. The availability, at least fundamentally, of highly detailed spatial data, which can be collected and evaluated on the basis of GIS (Benenson & Omer, 2003), would make detailed studies about the relationship of
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the spatial and social organization possible today. As part of CoMStaR Module 3, on the one hand empirical data about the spatial structure of the partner city of Dresden are processed for the graph-based analyses in Module 2, and on the other hand, thereby the (assumptions of the) simulation of residential segregation are evaluated in Module 2 on the basis of the data of a social space analysis. 3.3.1 Design of Empirical Investigation For the reasons of data protection, the communal population data is only available on bigger official statistical areas with 200 households or more, we additionally purchased population data from the company microm. The data of the company microm, the MOSAIC Milieus, is a combination of the Sinus-Milieus of the Sinus Sociovision Institut, which are raised in all of Germany, and specific spatial projections for the city of Dresden with the help of spatial informations of commercial marketing providers (microm Micromarketing-Systeme und Consult GmbH, 2009). Thus the project CoMStaR will be based on a spatial distribution of 10 Sinus-Milieus of Dresden, each point of the distribution aggregates 5 households on average (Fig. 3). In this way we are able to make statements on a small-scale level such as houses or street-segments for the years 2002, 2004, and 2008.
Fig. 3 Microm data points representing the dominant milieu
In order to make sure the spatial projection of the Sinus-Milieus is approximate to reality, we match this data with the official communal data of the statistical areas of Dresden. Additionally, a survey is planned in different spatial areas, which is not only for matching empirical knowledge with the spatial projection of the Sinus-Milieus, but to provide a better understanding of the interrelationship between spatial and social structure, too. 3.3.2 Milieu Approach The milieu approach consists of not only socio-demographic variables, such as age, gender, income and education, but also of the aspects of modern, individual lifestyle such as cultural activities and preferences of residential location (Bourdieu, 1987). These two directions, vertical
(social structure) and horizontal (degree of modern lifestyle), are shown in this milieu-diagram (Fig. 4). For instance, the milieu of the conservatives on the upper left hand side, the milieu of the classical middleclass in the middle and the milieu of the hedonists on the lower right hand side.
Fig. 4 Sinus-Milieus of Dresden. Source: Sinus Sociovision GmbH (2009).
Each of these various milieus has special preferences of residential location according to statistical analysis of the German Socio-Economic-Panel. These preferences are important indicators of how each household of the corresponding milieu would behave in terms of effort made for the relocation. 3.3.3 Spatial Indices of Segregation With the help of the detailed MOSAIC Milieu data we are able to identify socio-spatial areas approximating the reality - without depending on communal statistical units. This is carried out with the aid of statistical methods such as cluster and factorial analysis. The central question here is which level of socio-spatial areas - from building block to city level is the decisive factor in order to claim statements of segregation and gentrification. Therefore the proceeding of the project is first to measure segregation indices of different spatial levels and second to evaluate the results by theoretical approaches of segregation and gentrification. Segregation is commonly measured by means of an index of dissimilarity. A boundary modified version of the index was formulated by Morrill (1991). It was based upon the concept
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that segregation is a separation created by spatial structure imposed upon the social space and thus interaction between racial or social groups is limited. The index takes into account one of the spatial elements contiguity but ignores the others (Wong, 1993). The approach of David Wong argues that the length of the common boundary between two areal units and the shape of the areal units are important spatial components in determining segregation. Thus a family of segregation indices is derived by incorporating these spatial components and can be applied to various spatial configurations. One of the indices possesses a distinctive property which is useful for comparing segregation levels in areas of various scales (Wong, 1993). Particularly the last-mentioned index represents a suitable tool to measure residential segregation for the project CoMStaR. For the evaluation of the results by theoretical approaches of segregation authors like Huermann/Kapphan (2002) and Dangschat (2007) will be discussed.
4 Hypotheses
The following hypotheses can be derived from these considerations: 1. Generative methods permit the automatic creation of a broad spectrum of spatial structures. In connection with graph-based analysis procedures and valid simulations of residential segregation, these offer useful support in the development of urban planning concepts. It is sensible to design a generative system in such a way that it generates the topological relations in the form of a graph in the first step, and in a second, to offer geometrical solutions therefrom. 2. Graph-based analysis procedures allow meaningful measurements of different qualities of the built structures of a city. Based on a topological-functional representation of a city, residential segregation processes can be simulated by means of an agent-based model. 3. If one looks at the built structure of a city at different levels of scale, influences on the social-spatial organization of the population can be demonstrated on every level. We assume that residential areas with comparable spatial structures exhibit similarities in social organization and vice versa. Moreover, we expect that in residential areas with homogeneous population, the use habits of the residents can be explained as a function of the spatial structure.
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Bibliographical References
Appleyard, D. (1981). Livable Streets. Berkeley: University of California Press Benenson, I. (1998). Multi-Agent Simulations of Residential Dynamics in the City. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 22(1), 25-42 Benenson, I. (2004). Agent-Based Modelling: From Individual Residential Choice to Urban Residential Dynamics. In M.F. Goodchild & D.G. Janelle (Eds.), Spatially Integrated Social Science: Examples in Best Practice (pp.67-95): Oxford University Press Benenson, I.; Omer I. (2003). High-resolution census data: a simple way to make them useful. Data Science Journal, 2, 117-127 Benenson, I.; Omer, I.; Hatna, E. (2002). Entity-based modelling of urban residential dynamics: the case of Yaffo, Tel Aviv. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 29, 491-512 Bourdieu, P. (1987). Die feinen Unterschiede. Frankfurt/Main, Suhrkamp Bullard, R. (2006). People-of Color Evironmentalism. In S.H. Wheeler & T. Beatley (Eds.), The Sustainable Urban Development Reader (2 ed., pp. 143-149). New York: Routledge Bundestransferstelle Soziale Stadt (2009). http://www.sozialestadt.de/veroeffentlichungen/ (last viewed on 14.10.2009) Dangschat, J.S. (2007): Soziale Ungleichheit, gesellschaftlicher Raum und Segregation. In: Dangschat, J.S.; Hamedinger, A. (eds.) Lebensstile, soziale Lagen und Siedlungsstrukturen. Akademie fr Raumforschung und Landesplanung, Forschungs- und Sitzungsberichte der ARL, Band 230, Hannover, self-publishing Duarte, J. P.; Rocha, J. d. M.; Soares, G. D. (2007). Unveiling the structure of the Marrakech Medina: A shape grammar and an interpreter for generating urban form. Artificial Intelligence for Engineering Design, Analysis and Manufacturing, 21(in press) Elezkurtaj, T.; Franck, G. (2002). Algorithmic Support of Creative Architectural Design. Umbau, 19, 129-137 Farwick, A. (2001). Segregierte Armut in der Stadt: Ursachen und soziale Folgen der rumlichen Konzentration von Sozialhilfeempfngern (Vol. 14). Opladen: Leske + Budrich Friedrichs, J. (1983). Stadtanalyse: Soziale und rumliche Organisation der Gesellschaft (3rd ed.). Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag Friedrichs, J.; Blasius, J. (2000). Leben in benachteiligten Wohngebieten. Opladen: Leske + Budrich Gaebe, W. (2004). Urbane Rume. Stuttgart: Verlag Eugen Ulmer Hamm, B. (1982). Einfhrung in die Siedlungssoziologie. Mnchen: Beck Hauff, V. (1987). Unsere gemeinsame Zukunft: Der Drundtland-Bericht der Weltkommission fr Umwelt und Entwicklung. Greven Huermann, H.; Kapphan, A. (2002). Berlin: von der geteilten zur gespaltenen Stadt? Sozialrumlicher Wandel seit 1990. Opladen, Leske + Budrich Hillier, B. (2007). Space is the machine: a configurational theory of architecture. Retrieved 22.10.2007, from http://www.spacesyntax.com/tool-links/downloads/space-is-the-machine.aspx Hillier, B.; Hanson, J. (1984). The social logic of space. (Reprinted paperback edition 2003 ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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Hillier, B.; et al. (1976). Space syntax. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 3(2), 147-185 Hinding, B. (2003). Zur Bedeutung der Nachbarschaft fr die Frderung nachhaltiger Konsummuster. In K. Maier & G. Michelsen (Eds.), Nachhaltige Stadtentwicklung: Eine Herausforderung fr Umweltkommunikation und Soziale Arbeit (pp. 254-265). Frankfurt am Main: Verlag fr Akademische Schriften Jansen, D. (2006). Einfhrung in die Netzwerkanalyse: Grundlagen, Methoden, Forschungsbeispiele (3rd ed.). Wiesbaden: VS Verlag Kecskes, R.; Knble, S. (1988). Der Bevlkerungsaustausch in ethnisch gemischten Wohngebieten: Ein Test der Tipping-Theorie von Schelling. In J. Friedrichs (Ed.), Soziologische Stadtforschung (Vol. 29, pp. 293-309). Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag Koenig, R.: Simulation und Visualisierung der Dynamik rumlicher Prozesse: Eine computergesttzte Untersuchung zu den Wechselwirkungen sozialrumlicher Organisation und den baulichen Strukturen stdtischer Gesellschaften (VS Research ed.). Wiesbaden, VS Verlag (in press) microm Micromarketing-Systeme und Consult GmbH (2009). http://www.micromonline.de/Deutsch/Microm/Sekundaernavigation/Glossar/M/index.jsp, last viewed on 01.11.09 Morrill, R.L.: On the measure of geographic segregation. Geography Research Forum, 11, 25-36 (1991) Omer, I.; Gabay, R. a. (2007). Social Homogeneity and Space Syntax of Towns in Israel. Paper presented at the 6th International Space Syntax Symposium.. From http://www.spacesyntaxistanbul.itu.edu.tr/papers/shortpapers/108%20-%20Omer%20Gabay.pdf Parish, Y. I. H.; Mller, P. (2001). Procedural Modeling of Cities. Paper presented at the SIGGRAPH, Los Angeles, CA Portugali, J. (2000). Self-Organization and the City: Springer Series in Synergetics. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer Schelling, T. (1971). Dynamic models of segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 1, 143-186 Schelling, T. (1978). Micromotives and Macrobehavior (Rev. ed.). New York / London: W. W. Norton Sinus Sociovision GmbH (2009). www.sociovision.de/loesungen/sinus-milieus.html, last viewed on 1.12.09 Spitzer, H. (1997). Fnf Ebenen der Nachhaltigkeit. In M. Birzer: P. H. Feindt; E. A. Spindler (Eds.), Nachhaltige Stadtentwicklung: Konzepte und Projekte (pp. 60-70). Bonn: Economica Verlag Stiny, G.; Gips, J. (1971). Shape Grammars and the Generative Specification of Painting and Sculpture. Paper presented at the IFIP Congress 1971 Vaughan, L.; Clark, D.C.; Ozlem S. (2005): Space and Exclusion: The Relationship between physical segregation, economic marginalisation and poverty in the city. Paper presented to Fifth International Space Syntax Symposium, Delft, Holland Werheit, M. (2002). Monitoring einer nachhaltigen Stadtentwicklung (Dortmunder Beitrge zur Raumplanung ed. Vol. 113). Dortmund: Institut fr Raumplanung (IRPUD), Fakultt Raumplanung, Universitt Dortmund Wheeler, S. M. (Ed.). (2004). Planning for Sustainability: Creating Livable, Equitable, and Ecological Communities. London and New York: Routledge Williams, K.; Burton, E.; Jenks, M. (Eds.). (2000). Achieving Sustainable Urban Form. New York: E & FN Wong, D.W.S.: Spatial Indices of Segregation. Urban studies, 30, No. 3, 559-572 (1993)
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Sustainability assessment of urban policy scenarios: analysing the impacts of land use-transportation interaction in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area
Sofia Campo
S. Campo
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, United Kingdom s.campo@ucl.ac.uk Abstract The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impacts of future urban policy scenarios in the Lisbon region with the support of the Land Use and Transportation Impact Assessment integrated modelling framework for Lisbon (LUTIA-Lx). Three policy scenarios are analysed: (i) a business as usual scenario, consisting of minimum policy controls; (ii) a medium impact control scenario which builds on the propositions of national and regional policies; and (iii) a high impact control scenario which builds on strict urban development controls together with higher levels of service of public transportation and of soft modes infrastructures, and on benefits for cleaner vehicles and car usage taxation. It is concluded that achieving sustainability in the Lisbon region calls for: the implementation of integrative land use and transport policies; the stimulation of the use of public transportation and of soft modes; and for the conversion of the private car fleet.
Keywords: Sustainability policy assessment, integrated modelling, land use-transportation interaction.
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1 Introduction
In recent years there has been a growing interest in assessing the impacts of urban policies, with particular interest for analysing the direct and indirect effects that emerge from the interactions between land use and transportation systems. These interactions are complex processes which impact the social, economic and environmental dimensions of urban systems, as described in OECD (1996), EPA (2001), and Litman (2004). Currently, major challenges of urban regions are related with the mitigation of road traffic air pollution, noise levels, congestion, and other environmental and socio-economic externalities. Several policy packages including spatial, regulatory and pricing policies have been set into practice in order to bring about sustainability into urban regions. In Europe, policies such as transport oriented developments, decentralization and centralization of activities, and car-free neighbourhoods, among others, have played a role in several cities, as discussed in Van de Walle et al. (2004). Reviews of international empirical studies on this domain are given by Wegener i Frst (1999) , Stead i Marshall (2001), Naess (2003), Cervero (2004), and Handy (2005). The effectiveness of urban policies is still an ongoing debate with few clear answers for understanding if certain governmental actions have indeed contributed to a move towards sustainability. One of the classical examples is the discussion on the enforcement of centralized urban areas versus the decentralization of activities. Efforts in developing sustainability assessment tools for analysing the impacts of urban policies have focused on the design of dedicated monitoring indicator systems and of modelling tools either to predict or to optimize policy impacts. Various approaches for the assessment of urban policies in the European context can be found in European Commission (EC) projects such as TRANSLAND (Paulley i Pedler, 2000), PROSPECTS (May i Mathews, 2001), TRANSPLUS (ISIS, 2003), PROPOLIS (Lautso et al., 2004), SELMA (Garb, et al., 2004), and STEPS (Fiorello et al., 2006). Sustainability assessment methods have been subject to continuous debate regarding, in the case of monitoring indicator systems, the definition of meaningful indicators capable of incorporating the complexity of cause-effect relationships inherent to the application of urban policies, and in the case of modelling tools, the usability, transparency and transferability of models. In the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) the absence of spatial planning regulations, which only started to be systematically implemented in the beginning of the 1990s, influenced the sustainable development of the region by increasing the negative side effects of a rapid metropolitan growth. These side effects have led onto unsustainable mobility patterns with increasing road traffic emissions, noise levels, commuting times, saturation of the public transportation system and private car dependency. Only recently there has been a governmental concern towards managing the environmental and socio-economic effects of the metropolitan urban growth in the Lisbon region by including sustainability objectives in the policy agenda. As a result several key documents have been developed addressing the sustainability of the LMA urban system, this is the case of: the National Programme for Spatial Planning Policies (2006-
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2025), the Regional Spatial Plan for the LMA (2202-2010), the Lisbon Region Operational Programme (2007-2013) and the Regional Strategy for Lisbon (2020). Despite the increasing concern towards a sustainable management of the LMA urban system, so far policy assessment has not been systematically adapted by the metropolitan planning agency. With the introduction, by the EC, of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive (2001/42/EC), policy assessment of strategic planning actions is bound to become mandatory for spatial plans in Portugal to ensure the integration of environmental assessment principles in the planning decision process through an ex-ante evaluation of urban policies. However, there is a shortage of assessment tools adapted to the specificities of the Portuguese urban system for the analysis of urban policies and the simulation of its associated impacts. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impacts of future urban policy scenarios in the LMA with the support of a dedicated modelling framework the LUTIA.Lx (Land Use and Transportation Impact Assessment integrated modelling framework for Lisbon). The LUTIA.Lx was specifically designed as a decision support system for the analysis of the impacts of land use-transportation interaction on the sustainability of the Lisbon region. A major emphasis of the LUTIA-Lx framework is the assessment of urban mobility based on a series of performance indicators which are combined in objective functions aiming at the minimization of the consumption of natural capital and the maximization of social equity and economic efficiency. An application of the LUTIA.Lx is demonstrated in this paper for the assessment of three distinct policy scenarios: (i) Business as Usual Scenario a scenario with minimum policy controls; (ii) Medium Impact Control Scenario a scenario which takes into consideration the promotion of proposed governmental policies; (iii) High Impact Control Scenario a scenario which introduces further spatial and pricing policies to exert higher control over environmental and socio-economic externalities. After this introductory section this paper proceeds as follows: section two introduces the case study and describes current sustainability challenges in the Lisbon region. Section three describes the structure, function, and sustainability assessment capabilities of the LUTIA.Lx modelling framework. Section four discusses the design of the urban policy scenarios including main driving forces, critical uncertainties, assumptions and typology. The sustainability assessment of each scenario, supported by the LUTIA.Lx modelling framework, is presented in section five. Section six provides a discussion of the scenario assessment focusing on the results obtained for each scenario, the sensitivity analysis and policy optimization procedures. The paper concludes with policy recommendations and a discussion on the strengths and weaknesses of the LUTIA-Lx as a decision support system for sustainability assessment.
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2 Sustainability challenges in the Lisbon region

Situated in the Atlantic Coast of Portugal, the Lisbon Metropolitan Area is the third largest urban region in the Iberian Peninsula, after Madrid and Barcelona (see Figure 1). CRPM (2002) classifies the Lisbon region as an emergent star region, in the sequence of: its economic reconversion in the decades of 1980-1990 together with its relative economic strength in Portugal; its frail connectivity to the remaining European urban regions; and its low, but growing international competitiveness. This peripheral urban region represents, in terms of its population and economic production, a provincial capital of similar dimensions, in the European context, to Athens, Barcelona, Bratislava, Dublin, Edinburgh, Helsinki, Ljubljana, Sofia and Stockholm, as discussed in Hall (2005) and Gaspar (2001). Albeit representing only 3% of the total Portuguese territory, the LMA is Portugals main urban centre where Lisbon, the capital city, is situated. It holds 26% of the countrys population nearly 3 million inhabitants and it concentrates 40% of the national GDP. Formally constituted in 1991, the LMA is a regional policy unit with deliberative, executive and consultative bodies which intervene in five different policy areas: land use planning and development, environment, transportation and infrastructures, housing and public amenities and European funds and investments. Presently the LMA covers a total area of 2,9 km2 and is administratively divided in eighteen municipalities, aggregated in two NUTS III regions (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics) the Greater Lisbon on the northern river bank, and the Setbal Peninsula on the southern river bank which are separated by the Tagus river channel and estuary (see figures 2 and 3). Between and within the two NUTS III regions there are discrepancies in the distribution of population, economic activities, land uses and transportation infrastructures. Denser urban areas, industry and services are concentrated in the northern municipalities closer to Lisbon, the main centre of tertiary economic activity, and are served by railway or bus connections this is the case of Amadora, Cascais, Oeiras, Odivelas, and Sintra. In the southern river bank, denser urban areas are located in municipalities with direct boat connections to the city of Lisbon Almada, Barreiro, Moita, Seixal, and in Setbal, a peripheral city specialized in industry and sea port activities. Sintra and Loures municipalities constitute transition areas between urban and agricultural landscapes, by holding both dense and low density scattered urban areas and industrial areas, as well as valuable agricultural areas. Peripheral municipalities such as Alcochete, Montijo and Palmela are predominantly occupied by natural and agricultural areas, mixed with low density urban areas, while Mafra, Sesimbra, and Sintra hold touristic, natural and agricultural values. Similar to the road network system, public transportation follows a radial configuration where the supply and level of service increases with the proximity to the city of Lisbon. Several private and public transportation companies operate in the region providing: (i) train services in five suburban lines Lisboa-Cascais, Lisboa-Sintra, Lisboa-Azambuja, LisboaSetbal, Barreiro-Setbal; (ii) bus services in 270 intraurban lines, 223 interurban lines, and 167
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lines in Lisbon city; (iii) boat services in 16 lines between the northern and southern river banks; (iv) metro services in 4 lines serving the city of Lisbon with connections to the peripheral municipalities of Amadora and Loures; (v) light rail surface transportation serving exclusively the cities of Lisbon and Almada.
Figure 1: CRPM classification of peripheral European urban systems, adapted from CRPM ( 2002)
Figure 2: LMA municipalities and main land uses Figure 3: LMA urban system (Land use: Corine Land Cover 2000; Public transit network: Portuguese Institute for Mobility and Transportation; Road network: Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, Technical University of Lisbon; Satellite Image: Landsat TM, 2000; Administrative Boundaries: Portuguese Geographical Institute)
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Over the last four decades the LMA transitioned from a radial concentric metropolis (1960s1980s), with a clear domination of the city of Lisbon as the major employment centre specialized in services, to a polycentric metropolis (1990s-2000s) characterized by the fragmentation of its economic, urban, natural and social dimensions. New employment centralities have emerged in the vicinity of motorway junctions of peripheral municipalities in the sequence of the restructuring and modernization of the Portuguese economy, as discussed in Gaspar, Henriques i Vale (1998), and of the huge investment in road transportation infrastructures that followed Portugals accession to the EU. Presently the economic dynamics of the region are dominated by the following sectors: housing and construction, services and financial activities including office and retail parks as well as large shopping malls and hypermarkets, technological innovative industrial parks, agro-industry, automobile industry, transportation and telecommunications, and tourism and leisure. The evolution of the LMA has been determined by major structural and functional changes related with the supply and distribution of land uses and of transportation infrastructures. These physical changes have only begun to be formally regulated with the introduction of the first generation of Master Plans in the 1990s and of the Regional Spatial Plan for the Lisbon Region in 2002. The region is still lacking a general Transportation Plan capable of integrating the development of transportation infrastructures and of public transportation between each other and with the land use sector. It is now evident that the LMA sustainability is being threatened by the first and second order effects of a long period of urban sprawl allowance which has triggered interactions between the land use and transportation systems, with consequences on the increase of: commuting times, car dependence, saturation of the public transportation system, road traffic congestion and emissions, density and scattering of urban areas in the periphery of Lisbon in opposition to a population decrease in the city centre, fragmentation of ecological and agricultural areas, and consumption of non-renewable energy resources on leading to unsustainable mobility patterns, increasing road traffic emissions, noise levels and social polarization and segregation. Following the previously enounced impacts of land use and transportation interaction in the Lisbon region, several sustainability challenges can be enumerated: (i) improve the efficiency of land use and transportation policies one of the most prominent challenges in the Lisbon region is related with correcting the deficient connection which exists between the land use and transportation systems. Lack of efficient land use and transportation policies have lead to the concentration of new employment centralities and to the sprawl and growth of suburban housing above the real demand in areas with deficient accessibility to public transportation. Urban policies have been unsuccessful in retaining the share of public transit and of soft modes even in municipalities where the supply of public transportation has increased. Mobility and accessibility disparities have therefore increased. Between 1991 and 2001 the use of private car changed from 14% to 39%, while the use of public
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transportation rose from 56% to 32% (Statistics Portugal). Transportation policies have been focused on improving road accessibility, and only recently there has been an interest in establishing a common policy for the integration of the various modes of public transportation. Connections between the various modes of transportation have been strengthened with the introduction of interfaces between train-metro, boat-metro, and metro-train-bus, and with the use of an intermodality policy regarding ticket fares and travel passes. As far as multimodality is concerned, policies have consisted of allowing the carriage of bicycles in the train, metro, and bus subject to restrictions during the peak hours. (ii) correct environmental externalities traffic emissions of CO, NOx, particulates and greenhouse gases, as well as the consumption of petrol derivates, have increased continuously in the sequence of the growing use of the private car. The EEA (2007) report on air pollution in Europe refers Portugal as one of the countries which needs to make substantial emission reductions to meet the targets of the National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD). So far the governmental action in Portugal towards the mitigation of traffic emissions has been quite limited. Apart from the liberalization of the price of gas and from an intention of supporting the introduction of electric vehicles in the short-medium term, other types of interventions such as vehicle taxation based on consumption and emission profiles, have not been taken into account. Other significant externalities in the region are related with the fragmentation of highly sensitive agricultural and ecological areas in the sequence of the urban sprawl allowance which has lead to the occupation, with residential and industrial areas, of fertile agriculture areas, flood areas and other areas unsuitable for housing. influence individual behaviour other of the key challenges in the region is related with influencing individual behaviour towards the use of public transportation, of soft modes and of environmentally friendly vehicles which amount to less than 1% of the regions private car fleet. So far, governmental measures have been restricted to the introduction of parking fees in the city centres and of tolls on major motorways. Incentives towards the use of bicycles by creating dedicated networks have been scarce, and are not been taken seriously by the government. Additionally cycling is still perceived by users as a leisure mode rather than as a mode of transportation. Public transportation is becoming less attractive to users due to the low level of service, particularly in peripheral municipalities situated in a distance higher than 10km of the city of Lisbon. Inverting this tendency by enforcing the supply and quality of public transportation, and reducing the use of private car is a major challenge for governmental authorities in the Lisbon region.
(iii)
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3 LUTIA.Lx modelling framework

This section gives an overview of the structure and function of the LUTIA.Lx modelling Framework and of its sustainability assessment capabilities. 3.1 Structure and function LUTIA.Lx is based on a multi-paradigm modelling approach and is designed specifically for the Lisbon region as a decision support system to assess spatial planning actions at the strategic level. This modelling framework incorporates principles of system dynamics, spatial interaction, and discrete choice. These approaches are combined to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of the Lisbon metropolitan urban system in terms of demography, housing, employment, modal choice and travel patterns and its associated impacts on accessibility, congestion, consumption of non-renewable energy sources and air pollution. In the proposed modelling framework focus is therefore given to the assessment of land use and transportation policies which influence the sustainability of urban mobility within the Lisbon region. Types of policies which can be evaluated with the LUTIA.Lx include: land use policies changes in density and in land use function at a zonal level; transportation policies changes in road network capacity and changes in the supply of public transportation and of soft modes infrastructures; and fiscal policies road and private car taxation, congestion charge, energy taxation, and fiscal incentives for using cleaner vehicles. The structure of the modelling framework is presented in Figure 4. LUTIA.Lx is designed as a set of modules integrated in a common framework. The main core of the modeling framework is composed of elements which determine the regions dynamics and the behaviour of individuals. The spatial and temporal evolution of the metropolitan urban system is simulated in terms of changes in demography, employment, housing and job location, and of changes in the car market and its associated energy market. The behaviour of individuals is simulated in respect to changes in the choice of residential location and of workplace location, daily travel patterns, modal choice and choice of type of car categorised by engine and fuel technology. Main drivers of these core modules are defined by the imposition of regional and EU policies, both spatial (e.g. changes in the supply of land use and transportation systems) and aspatial (e.g. car or fuel taxation), and by expected changes in the international economic sector, which influence regional processes and individual behaviour. Impact assessment is based on the analysis of a set of indicators which measure changes in air pollution, congestion, accessibility and modal choice, as a response to the type of policies chosen for each future scenario. Since the current version of the LUTIA.Lx is implemented in a system dynamics programming environment this provides a user friendly interface which aids in the process of incorporating shared assumptions of parameters and processes and on the definition of policy scenarios together with stakeholders (see Figure 5). Data inputs and outputs are provided at the zonal level and can be aggregated in three geographical levels: (i) the Lisbon metropolitan region NUTS II and the two NUTS III subdivisions Greater Lisbon and Setbal Pennsula; (ii) the eighteen municipalities of the
Lisbon region; (iii) and the wards of each municipality - the lowest administrative boundary in the Portuguese system.
DRIVING FORCES REGIONAL DYNAMICS Population dynamics Employmen t dynamics Land market IMPACT ASSESSMENT Transport demand
Impacts on sustainability
INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOUR Land use demand Behaviour choice processes .choice of car
.choice of transportation mode .choice of household location .choice of job location
Regional and local policies .spatial .aspatial
Performance measures Objective functions Scenario analysis Transport supply Policy optimization
EU policies .spatial .aspatial Internationa l markets
Car market Energy market
Land use supply
Perceptions and empirical evidence simulation environment
Shared assumptions of parameters and processes
Sustainability thresholds and scenario definition
Figure 4: Structure of the LUTIA.Lx modelling framework

+ housing land use controls urban land employment + + migration + +
public transport & soft modes + + subsidies & level of service
Figure 5: Causal loop diagram: sustainability impacts and urban policies
population car market - ++ + tolls, car ownership fuel/technology tax, +parking tax modal accessibility + disparities road transport road + policies infrastructures congestion + + + emissions, energy alternative fuel & consuptiom, car technology cumulative costs -
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3.2 Sustainability assessment capabilities With the LUTIA.Lx, sustainability assessment is performed as follows: 4. Scenario development Firstly a set of scenarios are established for the region containing data and parameters at the lowest zonal level for: road transportation network level of service, public transportation and soft modes level of service; socio-economic data with information by household type on modal choice, travel patterns, and car ownership by engine and fuel technology; attractiveness and repulsion factors for housing and job location incorporating land prices, building densities, accessibility factors; generalized travel costs between zones including travel costs (travel fares, fuel price, and road taxation prices) and travel time; and taxation and fiscal benefits of owning a private car according with engine and fuel technology. 5. Scenario assessment For each scenario a series of performance measures are quantified to measure the environmental and socio-economic stressors of each policy alternative. Performance measures include the following three dimensions of sustainability: (ii.1.) environmental efficiency emissions of local pollutants (NOx, CO, and particulates); emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2); energy consumption of petrol derivatives for transportation purposes; and land consumption; (ii.2) social equity modal accessibility disparities to jobs; travel costs (ii.3) economic efficiency emission and energy costs; vehicle miles travelled; congestion density; modal share by trip purpose; car ownership by engine and fuel technology. Performance measures are standardized using a relative scale of impacts, ranging from one strong impact on sustainability to zero low impact on sustainability. Once normalized, performance measures are combined in a sustainability assessment index which is based on a simple weighted additive model. Variations of sustainability over time are given by changes in the sustainability index, or in each indicator separately for the different set of policies under analysis. 6. Scenario sensitivity analysis and optimization Policy sensitivity analysis and optimization are performed, respectively, with the use of Monte Carlo simulations by changing parameters of the core modules of the LUTIA.Lx, and with objective functions which rate the outputs of each simulation.
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4 Design of urban policy scenarios for the Lisbon region

This section introduces the design of scenarios which are based on land use and transportation policy issues relevant for the assessment of sustainability in the Lisbon region. Firstly, main driving forces and critical uncertainties in the region are discussed. Secondly, a systematic description of the policy scenario typologies used in the sustainability assessment is presented. Scenario techniques are a well-established method which allows for the investigation of the evolution of complex systems, taking into account fundamental uncertainties about the system in analysis. Dunker i Greig (2007) provide a useful review on the topic of scenario analysis in the context of environmental impact assessment. As far as sustainability assessment of urban policies is concerned, some examples can be found, among others, in studies by Nijkamp i Vreeker (2000), Pataki et al. (2009), and Patel, Kok i Rothman (2007). The LUTIA.Lx modelling framework incorporates the scenario analysis technique based on a deductive approach. 4.1 Driving forces and critical uncertainties Main driving forces and critical uncertainties in the Lisbon region are determined by the planning strategies proposed for the region by regional and local spatial plans, by European Unions regulations, and by the regions dynamics, including changes in population growth and economic productivity, as follows: Regional and local policies 1. National Strategy for Sustainable Development, 2005-2015 (Mota et al., 2004) includes four main tools, at the national level, with implications on the LMA: the national strategic reference framework which sets out the use of European Unions, public, and private funds; the national plan for economic growth and employment; the national programme for spatial planning policies; the national programme for climate change. 2. National Programme for Spatial Planning Policies, 2006-2025 (Gaspar et al., 2006) proposes a series of spatial guidelines for Portugal, and for the LMA in particular based on: the qualification of infrastructures and public amenities; introduction of a transportation mobility plan and promotion of sustainable mobility actions through the reduction of the dependence of the private car, and the reduction of extensive fragmented urban growth; promotion of infill and brownfield developments trough the reconversion of industrial areas and of the old city centres; implementation of the metropolitan ecological structure; requalification of derelict urban areas and of suburban areas; improvement of the metropolitan transportation system through the coordination of the various modes of public transportation and the development of a radial concentric accessibility network.
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3. Regional Spatial Plan for Lisbon, 2002-2010 (Ferreira et al., 2004) defines the spatial planning strategy for the Lisbon region based on four main priorities: environmental sustainability through the preservation of the natural values of the region, in particular the metropolitan ecological structure; urban requalification through the implementation of a regional model based on the development of new urban centralities, the consolidation of a mobility network connected with the land use system, and the containment of urban sprawl; 4. Lisbon Region Operational Programme, 2007-2013/Regional Strategy for Lisbon, 2020 (Zorrinho et al., 2005) defines a series of priority objectives for the development of the Lisbon region, in line with the Regional Spatial Plan, through the sponsorship of applied projects partially financed by European funds. The main objectives of this programme include: development of Information technology companies with regional and international competitiveness capabilities; stimulating governance; improve urban sustainability through the creation of eco-efficient mobility alternatives and eco-efficient urban projects; management of the metropolitan ecological structure and of the metropolitan green corridors; improve social cohesion through the development of social projects focused on the inclusion of migrant population and on the rehabilitation of derelict urban areas. 5. Large scale urban transport projects major short/medium term investments in the region include: the construction of a third bridge over the Tagus River connecting Lisbon to the southern municipality of Barreiro; the relocation of Lisbons international airport in the southern municipality of Alcochete; the high-speed railway connection with Spain; the construction of the Lisbon container port in Alcntara; the implementation of the light rail train in the Setbal Pennsula, with connections to the train and bus networks, linking the municipalities of Almada, Seixal and Barreiro; the expansion of the Lisbon metro network with further connections being developed within the city of Lisbon and with the neighbour municipality of Amadora. External factors (i) EU energy and emission policies following directives from the European Union several targets have been set at the national level, through the National Strategy for Energy and the National Strategy for Climate Change, for energy consumption from transportation and road traffic emissions. The goal is to move towards a low carbon production economy with a high energetic efficiency, where greenhouse gases should be reduced by 20% until 2020. In the case of energy consumption targets for 2010, these are set at a minimum share of 10% of biofuels for road traffic through the implementation of tax benefits for cars running on alternative fuels. Energy and climate change strategies are supported by the use of diversified, clean and efficient technologies, by the reduction of the energetic dependence on traditional energy sources, and by influencing individual behaviour.
Regional dynamics The following regional tendencies, which are discussed in the National Programme for Spatial Polices, and in the Regional Spatial Plan for Lisbon, can be stated for the LMA: (i) GDP and economic productive structure since 1995 there has been a progressive growth of the Lisbon region GDP and it is expected that the region will maintain its relative share of economic growth in the Portuguese context. This growth will be supported in the Greater Lisbon area by the reinforcement of the tertiary sector, in particular through the expected growth of companies related with the following economic activities: real estate, transportation and logistics, financial services, commercial units, and tourism. In the case of the Setbal Pennsula it is expected for the industrial sector to maintain its relative strength in the region. Demography recent tendencies in the region reveal that since the 1990s the population growth of the Lisbon region has not exceeded 5%, and that this growth was influenced by the increase of migrant population from Eastern countries and from Brazil. Projections for the LMA from the Regional Spatial Plan for Lisbon indicate, in the absence of external migration, a progressive ageing of the population between 2001 and 2010. This tendency is also considered in the demographic scenarios developed by the Portuguese statistics bureau for the next 50 years (2008-2060). Both studies seem to confirm that without migrations flows, it will be difficult to maintain a positive population growth, since the number of births will unlikely increase. This is mainly related with the absence of dedicated family and natality policies and with the instability of the Portuguese job market.
(ii)
4.2 Scenario assumptions and typology Three urban policy scenarios are considered which vary in the degree of urban growth containment, supply of public transportation and road networks, and taxation of private cars (see Table 1). With these scenarios it is expected to create a knowledge base which can serve the purpose of understanding to what extent a certain policy alternative might influence the dynamics of the LMA and contribute to a move towards sustainability. For this reason alternative scenarios have been chosen in such a way that they provide significant contrast from each other and that they incorporate plausible urban policies. The space of alternatives is described below: (i) Scenario 1 - Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) With the BAU scenario it is intended to measure the impacts that will occur if minimum policy controls are introduced in the LMA urban system. Therefore the
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present trends in the region regarding supply and demand of land use and transportation systems, and individual choices in terms of modal choice, car ownership, and car technology, will prevail. This scenario defines a continuous growth of suburbanization in greenfield areas in the peripheral municipalities of the LMA with low levels of accessibility to public transportation, and the decrease of population in the city centers, in particular in the city of Lisbon. The location of new industries and services will also follow a fragmentation pattern, with a prevailing number of services being developed in the Greater Lisbon, in opposition to the Setbal Pennsula where employment activities will continue to be supported by the industry sector. It is assumed that the majority of the governmental investment in transportation infrastructures will benefit the road network system and that no further investments will be made towards improving the public transportation system. Therefore specifications of the National Road Network Plan will be followed regarding the densification of the road network, including the construction of the third bridge, between Lisboa and Barreiro. Further taxation of roads and specific taxation for the use of private car according with engine/fuel technology will not be introduced. As far as population evolution is concerned it is assumed that a general tendency towards the decrease of the number of births will be maintained and that the migration rate will be kept constant. (ii) Scenario 2 - Medium Impact Control Scenario (MIC) The MIC scenario takes into consideration the promotion of proposed governmental policies, following the indications of the National Programme for Spatial Planning Policies, Regional Spatial Plan for Lisbon, National Road Network Plan, and of the Lisbon Region Operational Programme. In this medium impact control scenario, land use policies focalize on infill and brownfield developments and on the decentralization of economic activities. Greenfield developments are constrained by density, and also by the implementation of the metropolitan ecological structure. Transportation policies follow the specifications of the Regional Spatial Plan for Lisbon where the strategy for public transportation requires the implementation of different policies according with a radial distance to the city of Lisbon. In the central nucleus, which corresponds to a radial concentric area within a distance of 10 km to Lisbons central business district, multimodality policies are promoted by reinforcing the connections between the different modes of transportation boat, bus, metro, train, and tram through the establishment of interfaces and of common ticket fare systems. The second radius covers areas within a distance of 10-30 km to Lisbon for which policies are based on improving the public transportation system with the introduction of Park& Ride infrastructures, of transportation interfaces to support intermodality, and alternative transportation modes, such as the light rail, in connection with the train network. In the third radius, defined by areas in a distance higher than 30 km from the Lisbons central business district, transportation policies
focus on the introduction of common ticket fare systems and the reinforcement of the connections between the train and the bus systems. (iii) Scenario 3 - High Impact Control Scenario (HIC) The HIC scenario introduces further land use and transportation policies in order to exert a higher control over the externalities of land use-transportation interaction. These policies consist of containing greenfield developments by limiting the new development areas to 50% of the current Regional Spatial Plan for Lisbon stipulations and by further increasing infill and brownfield developments. New development areas should only occur in areas with high accessibility to the transportation network and in areas which dont conflict with the metropolitan ecological structure. Transportation policies include the overall decrease of the cost of public transportation and the improvement of the level of service, together with investments in soft modes infrastructures. Therefore the supply of cycling networks is increased in urban areas with connections to the remaining public transportation system (e.g. bicycle parks, and reduced fares for carrying the bicycle inside the train). Public transportation policies include also the enforcement of connections between new employment centers and residential areas with the introduction of light
Scenari os Scenari o1 BAU Goal
Minimum policy controls/D o Nothing Scenario
Spatial Policies Land use

(1.1) maintain level of suburbanization (1.2) maintain level of decentralization of economic activities (2.1) increase infill and brownfield developments (2.2) constrain greenfield developments (2.2) maintain level of decentralization of economic activities (3.1) increase infill and brownfield developments (3.2) minimize greenfield developments (3.3) decentralization of economic activities integrated with residential areas and with public transportation and soft modes networks
Transportation
(1.3) reinforce road network (1.4) maintain the current level of service of public transportation and of soft modes infrastructures (2.3) reinforce multimodality in a radius of 10km from Lisbon (2.4) reinforce Park&Ride schemes and intermodality in a radius of 10-30 km from Lisbon (2.5) reinforce connections between different public transportation models in a radius >30km from Lisbon (3.4) reinforce the supply of soft modes in urban centers (3.5) reinforce the supply of public transportation modes following a strategy of connection between urban centers
Aspatial policies Taxation

(1.5) maintain level of road taxation (1.6) no taxation on private car by vehicle technology (2.6) maintain level of road taxation (2.7) no taxation on private car by vehicle technology
Scenari o2 MIC
Implement proposed regional policies
Scenari o3 HIC
Maximize environme ntal controls
(3.6) increase level of road taxation (3.7) introduce taxation on the use of private car by type of engine and fuel technology (3.8) introduce fiscal benefits for alternative engine and fuel vehicles
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rail systems and of bus networks with connections to the railway network. Furthermore the policy of road taxation is increased and fiscal benefits are given to the use of alternative vehicles, such as electric and hybrid cars.
5 Sustainability assessment of urban policy scenarios

Sustainability assessment is performed by running simulations of the LUTIA.Lx for each of the three scenarios, and by analyzing the respective outputs with the use of performance measures which quantify the stressors of each policy alternative. These performance measures are chosen to cover three dimensions of sustainability: environmental efficiency, social equity and economic efficiency. Comparison between each scenario is performed with visual inspection of graphic outputs representing the evolution of each performance measure in time, and with the calculation of a composite index for the target year of the simulation. 5.1 Sustainability performance measures The choice of performance measures was based on the identification of a set of basic factors which objectively describe major stressors of the land use-transportation interaction on sustainability. Focusing on the topic of sustainable urban mobility three sustainability dimensions were chosen, as follows: (i) Environmental efficiency Local and global air pollution emissions by private car To capture the greenhouse effects of each scenario alternative yearly potential emissions of CO2 in tons by year and zone are selected. Local air pollution emissions are measured in function of potential emissions of NOx, CO, and PM10 in tons by year and zone. Emission rates for local and global pollutants are calculated as a function of the yearly mean traffic, the trip distance between each zone, and the respective emission rates by type of engine technology, for the peak-hour time period of an average working day. Energy consumption by private car The energy consumption by private car is measured in a similar way to the air pollution emissions as a function of the yearly mean traffic, the trip distance between each zone and the respective energy consumption rates by type of engine technology, for the peak-hour time period of an average working day. Land consumption Land consumption is measured in terms of the number of km2 that are used in each zone every year for residential, industrial, and services purposes.
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(ii) Social Equity and Individual responsibility Modal accessibility disparities This is a measure of the disparity of job accessibility between private car, public transportation, and soft modes (walking and cycling), using demand-adjusted and standardization measures. Vehicle kms travelled per capita Measures the amount of kilometers travelled by private car each year. A scenario with a lower number of kms travelled by private car implies that there is a higher use of public transportation, or soft modes and therefore the energy consumption is lower and the amount of air emissions is also lower. Car ownership Car ownership is a measure of the yearly increase of private car by engine and fuel technology. (iii) Economic Efficiency Cumulative emissions costs Pollution damage costs are calculated based on the pollution due to vehicle operation and greenhouse gas emission from fuel production taking into account the type of car technology. The costs take into account the effects of air pollution on health, agriculture, buildings and other materials, and on natural and semi-natural ecosystems, and are based on the European Comission Clean Air for Europe programme (see Holland et al., 2005). Travel costs Travel costs represent the travel costs by mode of transportation. In the case of public transportation the disutility of travelling is represented by the travel fares and in the case of private car by fuel costs, toll road costs, and parking costs. Congestion density Congestion density is a measure of the ratio between the mean daily traffic during peak hour and the road capacity. A ratio with a value higher than one implies that the road capacity is lower than the daily mean traffic, and congestion is therefore occurring.
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5.2 Sustainability assessment simulation An aggregate version of the LUTIA.Lx model is simulated under the three scenario alternatives following changes in spatial and aspatial policies for a time span of 50 years as described in Table 2 of Section four. Differences between the simulated results are represented in Figures 611 for a restricted number of performance measures, showing the variations between the three scenarios, where the initial and final times of the simulation, respectively 2001 and 2051, are represented by year zero and year fifty. Although it is possible to set the model to provide results at the ward level, it was decided, in the context of this case study, to run the simulation for the LMA as a single unit of analysis.
Figure 6: NOx emissions from private car
Figure 7: CO2 emissions from private car
Figure 8: Land consumption
Figure 9: Modal share soft modes
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Figure 10: Modal share public transportation
Figure 11: Modal share private car
5.3 Sustainability assessment matrix and policy optimization After running the simulations and obtaining the variations of each performance measure for each of the scenarios it is now possible to perform an analysis of the implications on sustainability for each scenario. This can be pursued by estimating an impact matrix for the time horizon of each scenario by looking at the standardized effects of the performance measures. To achieve this, the scales have been normalized with the use of a linear transformation expression (1) and the normalized scores were combined with the use of a simple additive model expressed by equation (2), which determines the overall utility of each scenario. Sustainability is measured in a relative scale of impact values between one strong impact on sustainability and zero low impact on sustainability. The optimal solution should therefore be close to an impact value of zero. The sustainability index represents the accumulated impacts of the policies considered in the various scenarios on each performance measure for the sum of the overall performance measures (see Table 2).
nPM j normalized performance measure j at time n PMj performance measure j PMminj minimum value of performance measure j PMmaxj maximum value of performance j
(2)
Uitn relative utility of scenario i for time n wj weight of performance measure j nPMj normalized performance measure j
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Sustainability dimension Performance measures Scenario 1 BAU
0.12 0.11 0.10 0.21 0.23 0.31 0.52 0.51 0.45 0.35 0.33 0.45 0.37 0.30
Scenario 2 MIC
0.10 0.09 0.08 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.33 0.31 0.47 0.35 0.26
Scenario 3 HIC
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.15 0.19 0.14 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.26 0.25 0.50 0.29 0.20
(1.1) local air pollution emissions NOx (tons/year) CO (tons/year) (1) Environmental PM10 (tons/year) efficiency (1.2) global air pollution emissions CO2 (tons/year) (1.3) energy consumption fossil fuels (tons/year) (1.4) land consumption (km2) (2) Social Equity and (2.1) modal accessibility disparities Individual (2.2) vehicle km travelled per capita responsibility (2.3) car ownership (3) Economic (3.1) cumulative emissions costs Efficiency (3.2) travel costs by public transportation (3.3) travel costs by private car (3.4) congestion density Overall sustainability index
Table 2 : Scenario assessment impact matrix
5.4 Sensitivity analysis A sensitivity analysis has been carried out with the use of Monte Carlo simulation, also known as multivariate sensitivity simulation. This analysis was set up to measure the influence of the model parameters on the behaviour of each performance measure. A random uniform distribution was used with variations of approximately 10% of each parameter on its minimum and maximum values. Changes were only made in parameters considered influential on the behaviour of individuals, such as taxation of roads, taxation of car usage by type of car technology, and also on the disutility of public transportation and of soft modes. Figures 12-14 show the results of sensitivity analysis for an environmental efficiency performance measure, emissions of NOx from private car, for each of the three scenarios.
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Figure 12 : Sensitivity analysis, Scenario 1
Figure 13: Sensitivity analysis, Scenario 2
Figure 14: Sensitivity analysis, Scenario 3
6 Discussion of results
Results of the sustainability assessment simulation for the three chosen scenarios show the following: (i) Scenario 1 - Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) The Business as Usual scenario has the highest impact on sustainability in the LMA for every performance measure. We can observe an overall decrease of environmental and economic efficiency (see Figures 6 to11, and Table 2), as well as of social equity since modal accessibility disparities increase on leading to higher levels of air pollution emissions, consumption of natural resources and increase of environmental externalities. These effects were to be expected since the BAU scenario promotes urban sprawl and the increase of the use of private car in parallel with a low level of service of public transportation and the absence of road or car taxation. In addition, sensitivity analysis shows that there is little possibility for decline of negative impacts on sustainability. This is exemplified in Figure 12 with the sensitivity analysis of the variations of NOx emissions. (ii) Scenario 2 Medium Impact Control Scenario (MIC) The Medium Impact Control scenario shows that the introduction of specific policy controls on the LMA has a positive impact on the sustainability of the region (see
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Figures 6 to 11, and Table 2). By imposing a restriction on greenfield developments and by implementing a public transportation system with a higher level of service it is possible to obtain results for each performance measure with lower impacts on sustainability than in Scenario 1. Sensitivity analysis also shows that impacts on sustainability can achieve lower values than the ones obtained with Scenario 1 and additionally these impacts might even stabilize over time. (iii) Scenario 3 High Impact Control Scenario (HIC) With the High Impact Control scenario it is possible to achieve lower impacts on the sustainability of the region (see Figures 6 to 11, and Table 2). The results of the simulation show that of the three scenarios the HIC scenario is the only one with which it is possible to achieve higher values of environmental efficiency, social equity and economic efficiency. This results from exerting higher controls over the expansion of urban areas, stimulating the integration of land uses with the public transportation network, and by increasing the level of service of public transportation and soft modes and simultaneously influencing the use of private car and the use of alternative private car technologies. Additionally sensitivity analysis shows that impacts on sustainability can achieve lower values with this scenario than with the BAU or MIC scenarios.
7 Summary and conclusions

Changes in the land use and transportation systems within the LMA have lead onto impacts on the sustainability of the region by imposing significant environmental and socio-economic stresses. Correcting environmental externalities related with traffic congestion, road traffic emissions, and energy consumption from private car are some of the major current challenges in the region. This paper has provided an analysis of the sustainability of urban policies in the LMA based on a modeling framework - the LUTIA.Lx. This framework brings together the simulation of the regions dynamics in terms of population and employment dynamics and of car, energy and land markets, and behavioural choice processes related with choices of location and modes of transportation. Three types of scenarios were analysed, ranging from a business as usual scenario, where there are minimum policy controls on the growth of the Lisbon urban system, to a high impact control scenario based on strict urban development controls and a higher supply of public transportation together with a control over private car usage. Results reveal that achieving sustainability in the LMA calls for the implementation of urban policies which a focus on: the integration between the land use and transportation systems, by stimulating urban growth in areas with good levels of service of public transportation; the stimulation of the use of soft modes such as walking or cycling; and on controlling the use of private car and stimulating the conversion of the present private car fleet to cleaner technologies such as electric or hybrid.
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Finally it is important to provide a critical analysis of the methodology used in this research based on the following critical points. Firstly, the LUTIA.Lx modeling framework was designed to provide assessment capabilities at the strategic level with the use of a limited number of performance measures. Due to the complexity of a regional system such as the LMA it is only possible to account for a limited number of the various feedback mechanisms that take place within the region. Secondly, sustainability assessment is based on a comparative analysis of scenarios which are ranked by using a relative scale of impacts that measure variations of potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. Only a limited number of performance measures is used in the assessment, and additionally the comparison with threshold values (e.g. emissions ceilings), although possible with the LUTIA.Lx, has not been included in the present assessment analysis. Thirdly, the scenarios under analysis have been restricted to a manageable number of plausible alternatives, and therefore the analysis calls for more experiments with alternative policies by including, for example, visions of experts, stakeholders and nongovernmental organizations. Fourthly, spatial and temporal variations of sustainability at different scales might influence the evaluation of each scenario and the outcomes of the assessment procedure. Although the LUTIA.Lx has been formulated to provide results at the municipality and ward level, in the scope of this paper sustainability assessment has focused on the analysis of the evolution of the sustainability of the Lisbon region as a single regional unit. It is intended to further enhance the LUTIA.Lx modelling framework in terms of the representation of agents, processes, policy instruments and sustainability impacts, by improving the core modelling structure and widening its scope of analysis. This paper opens up an alternative research methodology on sustainability assessment specifically designed for the LMA, which, together with other assessment tools, can be applied for the evaluation of future urban policy scenarios to support decision making in the region.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology in the scope of the PhD scholarship SFRH/BD/25240/2005.
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El cambio climtico en Espaa y sus implicaciones para la sostenibilidad

P. Alvarez-Ura1, L. Landa2, N. Guaita3 , A. Ayuso4
P. Alvarez-Ura et al.
Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad en Espaa Univesidad de Alcal Plaza San Diego, s/n http: //www.sostenibilidad-es.org/ email1: pilar.uria@uah.es email2: lucia.landa@uah.es e-mail3: noelia.guaita@uah.es e-mail4: anamaria.ayuso@uah.es
Resumen
El aumento de la temperatura del aire en superficie que se ha producido en las ltimas dcadas tiene importantes implicaciones para la sostenibilidad, dado que puede dar lugar a impactos perjudiciales sobre la mayor parte de los sectores socioeconmicos y sobre el equilibrio de los ecosistemas. En el presente trabajo se analiza la desviacin de la temperatura media anual del aire en superficie, as como las desviaciones de las temperaturas mxima media anual y mnima media anual, para cada ao desde 1931 hasta 2007 en Espaa, en relacin con la media de sus valores en el perodo 1961-1990. En Espaa se ha producido un ligero calentamiento hasta finales de los cuarenta, y un enfriamiento posterior hasta el inicio de los setenta. A partir de principios de los aos setenta se produce una tendencia al calentamiento que persiste hasta el presente, especialmente acusada en los primeros aos de la dcada de los setenta y finales de los noventa. Palabras clave: Sostenibilidad, cambio climtico, temperatura, precipitacin. * * *
Title: Climate Change in Spain and its implications for sustainability Abstract: The increase in surface air temperature that has taken place in the last decades has important implications for sustainability, given its negative impacts on both economic sectors and biodiversity. In the present work we analyse the mean annual temperature anomalies from 1931 to 2008 in Spain, comparing them with the temperature averages between 1961 and 1990. The results show that Spain has a warming tendency from the early seventies up to the present. Keywords: Sustainability, climate change, temperatura, precipitation.
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1 Introduccin
El cambio climtico es una de las principales amenazas para el desarrollo sostenible, con efectos sobre la economa global, la salud y el bienestar social. Segn el Cuarto Informe de Evaluacin del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos de Cambio Climtico (IPCC, 2007), el calentamiento global es inequvoco y se atribuye a la accin del ser humano con una certidumbre superior al noventa por ciento. La temperatura global media en la superficie terrestre ha aumentado en los ltimos cien aos 0,74 [0,55 a 0,92]C y entre 1995 y 2006 se han registrado los 11 aos ms calurosos desde 1850. Sin una poltica eficaz de mitigacin de los efectos del cambio climtico a nivel planetario, las estimaciones ms optimistas respecto al calentamiento global se sitan entre 1,8 C y 4 C de aqu a 2100 en comparacin con los niveles de 1990. Los cientficos del IPCC consideran que hay que evitar por todos los medios que la temperatura media del Planeta aumente 2C ms, ya que los efectos seran imprevisibles y no lineales, con una escalada constante de los costes de adaptacin. Para conseguir tal objetivo es necesario que las concentraciones de CO2 no superen las 550 partes por milln, lo que exige reducir un 60-80% las emisiones planetarias para el 2050. El informe Stern (2006), sobre la economa del cambio climtico, considera que esta reduccin puede costar entre un 1 y un 5%, mientras que el coste del cambio climtico puede suponer un 20% del PIB mundial. Si se comparan esos niveles de gastos con los posibles costos de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero se observa que la adopcin de medidas en el momento actual con miras a estabilizar la concentracin constituye una buena inversin a largo plazo.
2 Materiales y mtodo
Las desviaciones de las temperaturas media anual y la precipitacin anual se han calculado a partir de la base de datos reticular del Servicio de Desarrollos Climatolgicos de la Agencia Estatal de Meteorologa (AEMET), elaborada a partir de las observaciones de la base de datos histrica para el periodo 1931-2008. La base de datos reticular (25 x 25 Km) se ha construido utilizando la tcnica estadstica espacial kriging y posee una distribucin espacial y temporal homognea en la que no existen datos faltantes. El seguimiento del cambio climtico exige la utilizacin de superficies extensas. Por esta causa se ha optado por utilizar indicadores aplicados a tres zonas amplias, climticamente homogneas con criterios estadsticos testados, que abarcan la totalidad del territorio espaol peninsular e Islas Baleares (figura 1). Estas zonas han sido identificadas mediante la combinacin de dos tcnicas no lineales: descomposicin wavelet de seales y redes neuronales (Almarza y Luna, 2004):
Zona 1 (predominio de la influencia Atlntica): incluye el Noroeste, las dos mesetas y el Suroeste de la Pennsula Ibrica. Zona 2 (predominio de la influencia Mediterrnea): incluye la mayor parte de la costa
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mediterrnea, el sureste del valle del Ebro y las Islas Baleares.
Zona 3 (predominio de la influencia Cantbrica): incluye la mayor parte de territorios de la cornisa cantbrica, los Pirineos y la parte Noroccidental del valle del Ebro.
Las series temporales para cada una de las zonas se han obtenido como promedios espaciales de las series originales contenidas en cada una de las reas. Todas las temperaturas medias se han calculado como semisumas de los valores promedio mximos y mnimos.
Figura 1: Zonas climticamente homogneas de la Pennsula Ibrica (Luna y Almarza 2004).
3 Resultados
La temperatura del aire en la Espaa peninsular ha mostrado indudables signos de calentamiento a lo largo del periodo instrumental (1850-2006), segn el Informe de Generacin de Escenarios Regionalizados de Cambio Climtico para Espaa (MMA, 2007), destacando el calentamiento fuerte, abrupto y sin precedentes que viene producindose desde 1973 y que se mantiene hasta el presente, con un aumento promedio de la temperatura media diaria de 0,48 [0,36 a 0,66]C por dcada. En los ltimos 15 aos se acumulan los 5 con mayor temperatura media anual desde 1931: 2006, 1997, 1995, 2003 y 1994. En 2006 la desviacin de la temperatura media anual respecto al periodo 1961-1990 ha sido la ms elevada desde 1931, concretamente de 0,99C (Figura 2). Las desviaciones de las temperaturas mxima media (0,88C), y mnima media anuales (1,09C), tambin han sido muy acusadas. En 2007 y 2008 las desviaciones de la temperatura media anual no son especialmente acusadas.
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1,5
Desviacin T. media (C)
1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Figura 2: Desviacin de la temperatura media anual en la Pennsula y Baleares (1931-2008), respecto al periodo 1961.1990. Ajustes lineal y de medias mviles de orden 9
Cuando se analizan los resultados por zonas climticas, se obtiene que:
La Zona 1, de predominio atlntico, muestra un comportamiento con menor variabilidad interanual que el descrito para el conjunto, pero con un calentamiento promedio en los ltimos 77 aos de unos 0,8 C (figura 3.a). La Zona 2, de predominio mediterrneo, tiene una variabilidad interanual muy baja hasta finales de los aos sesenta, un enfriamiento posterior muy marcado y un calentamiento persistente hasta el momento, que sin embargo en el promedio de los ltimos 77 aos es de slo 0,3C (figura 3.b). La Zona 3, con predominio de la influencia cantbrica, presenta un enfriamiento transitorio entre finales de los 40 y el inicio de los 70, y un calentamiento promedio en los ltimos 77 aos de 0,9 C (figura 3.c).
a) Zona Atlntica
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b) Zona Mediterrnea
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1,5
1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 1930
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c) Zona Cantbrica
1,5
1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 1930
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Figura 3: Desviacin de la temperatura media anual en las zonas climticas de la Pennsula y Baleares (1931-2008), respecto al periodo 1961.1990. a) Zona Atlntica; b) Zona Mediterrnea; c) Zona Cantbrica. Ajustes lineal y de medias mviles de orden 9.
En cuanto a la precipitacin, en la Pennsula y Baleares se distingue un perodo de menor precipitacin entre 1943 y 1959 aproximadamente, un aumento posterior hasta el inicio de los aos ochenta y, desde entonces, un comportamiento muy variable hasta el presente, con algn ao muy lluvioso y otros muy secos (figura 4). En porcentaje, el descenso promedio es de un 8% aproximadamente, para el perodo comprendido entre 1931 y 2008. El ao que menos llovi desde 1931 fue 2005, con -183,6 mm de desviacin con respecto al periodo 1961-1990.
Desviacin de la precipitacin (mm)
300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
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Figura 4: Desviacin de la precipitacin total anual de la Pennsula y Baleares (1931-2008), respecto al periodo 1961.1990. Ajustes lineal y de medias mviles de orden 9
4 Conclusiones
Hay pruebas abrumadoras de que prcticamente todos los procesos naturales, biolgicos y fsicos estn reaccionando al cambio climtico en Europa y en todo el mundo (por ejemplo, los rboles florecen antes, los glaciares se estn fundiendo, etc.). Ms de las mitad de las especies vegetales europeas podran convertirse en vulnerables o amenazadas de aqu a 2080. Segn el ltimo informe del IPCC, algunos de los efectos del cambio climtico son ya inevitables, e influirn sobre la mayor parte de los sectores de la economa y sobre los recursos naturales, incluso aunque se pongan en marcha programas de mitigacin eficaces. Es muy probable que, durante el presente siglo, el cambio climtico entrae un aumento de la frecuencia y de la intensidad de los fenmenos meteorolgicos extraordinarios, la elevacin del nivel del mar y un incremento de la acidez de los ocanos, as como transformaciones en gran escala en la vegetacin e importantes prdidas de especies de plantas y de animales sensibles al clima y cambios importantes en el alcance geogrfico de los vectores de las enfermedades y los elementos patgenos. Espaa es muy vulnerable al cambio climtico como consecuencia de su situacin geogrfica y sus caractersticas socioeconmicas. Los principales problemas ambientales que se vern reforzados por el cambio climtico son la disminucin de los recursos hdricos y la regresin de la costa, la prdida de diversidad biolgica y ecosistemas naturales y aumentos en los procesos de erosin del suelo. Asimismo, hay otros efectos del cambio climtico que van a dar lugar a graves impactos en los sectores econmicos. Las proyecciones de los eventos extremos de temperatura y precipitacin tienen un elevado grado de incertidumbre, pero se prev que los periodos clidos, incluyendo las olas de calor, sean ms intensos, ms frecuentes y de mayor duracin, sobretodo en la zona mediterrnea y el este de Europa. Asimismo, hacia 2050-2060 la regin mediterrnea podra tener un mes ms al ao con temperaturas diurnas superando los 25C (AEMA, 2007).
5 Referencias
AEMA. Europes environment. The fourth assessment. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Copenhagen (2007). Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Solomon, S,D, et al (eds.)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.M.D (2007). Luna, M.Y.; Almarza, C. (2004) Interpolation of 1961-2002 daily climatic data in Spain. In Proceedings of International Meeting on Spatial Interpolation in Climatology and Meteorology, Budapest, Hungry. MMA (2007). Generacin de escenarios regionalizados de cambio climtico para Espaa. Primera fase (2007). Stern N, Peters S, Bakhshi V, Bowen A, Cameron C, Catovsky S, Crane D, Cruickshank S, Dietz S, Edmonson N, Garbett S-L, Hamid L, Hoffman G, Ingram D, Jones B, Patmore N, Radcliffe H, Sathiyarajah R, Stock M, Taylor C, Vernon T, Wanjie H & Zenghelis D. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London (2006).
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Las reas de acceso preferencial, un instrumento de apoyo para la gestin de la sostenibilidad en las reas marinas protegidas
Agustn Molina Garca1, Csar Garca Aranda2 , Alfredo Llanos Via3 A. Molina et al. Centro de Estudios del Litoral-Universidad Politcnica de Madrid ETSITGC, Ctra. Valencia, km 7, 28031 Madrid, Espaa Web: www.topografia.upm.es 1 Profesor Titular de E.U.. Email: agustin.molina@upm.es 2 Profesor Laboral Titular. Email: cesar.garciaa@upm.es 3 Catedrtico de E.U.. Email: alfredo.llanos@upm.es
Resumen
En el contexto de las reas Marinas Protegidas, el establecimiento de reas de acceso preferencial permite, mediante la incorporacin de criterios de propiedad y de exclusividad de uso de los recursos marinos, aportar incentivos para el desarrollo de un verdadero sistema de gestin integral dirigido a satisfacer objetivos mixtos de proteccin y de produccin, que incluya no solo derechos de uso sino tambin deberes sobre la vigilancia e investigacin del ecosistema marino. Bajo este enfoque se plantea la figura de la Zona de Gestin Regulada de Recursos Marinos (ZGRRM) como instrumento de ordenacin y gestin de la sostenibilidad y se describe una experiencia desarrollada en un rea marina no empleada habitualmente para la pesca profesional, situada a 6 millas del poblado pesquero de Sancti Petri (Chiclana de la FronteraCdiz), enmarcada en una zona sometida a Reserva de Uso en favor del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino. Palabras clave: Gestin litoral, zonas costeras, recursos marinos, reas marinas protegidas.
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Title: Preferential access areas, a tool for supporting sustainable management of Marine Protected Areas. Abstract: In the context of Marine Protected Areas, the setting of preferential access areas, allows, by incorporating marine resources ownership and exclusive use criteria, providing incentives for the development of a truly integrated management system aimed at meeting mixed objectives of protection and production, including not only use rights but also duties on monitoring and research of the marine ecosystem. With this approach raises the concept of "Area for Regulated Management of Marine Resources" as a tool for planning and sustainable management, and it is described an experience carried out in a sea area not usually used for commercial fishing, located 6 miles from the fishing village of Sancti Petri (Chiclana de la Frontera, Cdiz), set in an area subject to use reserves by the Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs. Keywords: Coastal management, coastal areas, marine resources, protected marine areas.
1 Antecedentes
En las ltimas dcadas la conservacin y gestin sostenible de los recursos marinos se ha convertido en una prioridad de actuacin internacional. Ya en la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo, celebrada en Ro de Janeiro en 1992, tambin conocida como la Cumbre de la Tierra, la preocupacin por el uso sostenible de los recursos marinos se plantea como uno de los retos a abordar; en concreto, el Programa 21 dedica su Captulo 17 a la Proteccin de los ocanos y de los mares de todo tipo, de las zonas costeras y utilizacin racional y desarrollo de sus recursos vivos. Igualmente, en el Convenio sobre Diversidad Biolgica se subraya la necesidad de una gestin integrada de las zonas costeras, que sirva para la proteccin y el uso sostenible de sus recursos vivos. De forma especfica, en 1995, en la segunda reunin de la Conferencia de las Partes en el Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biolgica, se adopt el Mandato de Yakarta sobre Conservacin y aprovechamiento sostenible de la diversidad biolgica marina y costera, a travs del cual se respalda la ordenacin integrada de las zonas marinas y costeras como el marco ms adecuado para abordar el impacto de las actividades humanas en la diversidad biolgica marina y costera y promover la conservacin y la utilizacin sostenible de esa diversidad biolgica. Diez aos ms tarde, en la Cumbre de Johannesburgo de 2002, entre los compromisos para alcanzar el desarrollo sostenible en el mbito del mar y los ocanos, se acord, con el objetivo de 2012, el establecimiento de una red de reas Marinas Protegidas (AMP) como instrumento para fomentar una gestin de los ecosistemas marinos de forma compatible con la explotacin sostenible de sus recursos.
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1.1 Las reas marinas protegidas Si bien las reas marinas destinadas a la proteccin de los recursos naturales y culturales, y sometidas a regulacin de usos y aprovechamientos, han empezado a considerarse como una herramienta de poltica ambiental hace poco ms de un par de dcadas, su importancia, principalmente asociada a la gestin de los recursos pesqueros, ha sido reconocida desde hace siglos. Es en 1994, cuando la Unin Internacional para la Conservacin de la Naturaleza y sus Recursos Naturales (UICN) define rea Marina Protegida como un rea de mar especialmente destinada a la proteccin y mantenimiento de la diversidad biolgica y de los recursos naturales y culturales asociados y gestionados por ley u otros medios efectivos de control. Esta definicin incluye una gran variedad de posibilidades, en funcin del objeto de conservacin, el nivel de proteccin y las restricciones de aprovechamiento de los recursos. En todo caso, el establecimiento de un rea Marina Protegida debe estar dirigido a mejorar la gestin de este espacio. Para ello, es conveniente llevar a cabo (en base a las caractersticas, fisiogrficas, oceanogrficas y geomorfolgicas, as como a las condiciones fsico-qumicas, flora, fauna o ecosistemas marinos presentes en el rea), una zonificacin que posibilite disear actuaciones especficas de conservacin y mejora del patrimonio natural en cada zona, as como adoptar medidas de planificacin, ordenacin, supervisin y vigilancia, mediante un Plan de Gestin. El Plan de Gestin, adems de garantizar la conservacin y/o la recuperacin de los sistemas naturales, deber facilitar un aprovechamiento sostenible de los recursos, estableciendo la regulacin de los diferentes usos (tursticos, recreativos, deportivos, educativos y cientficos), en funcin del nivel de proteccin de cada zona definida dentro del rea Marina Protegida.
2 Las zonas de gestin regulada de recursos marinos

Como se propugna en la Poltica Martima Integrada (PMI) de la Unin Europea a travs de la Directiva marco sobre la estrategia marina, la adopcin de una gestin de reas marinas basada en el principio de sostenibilidad con un enfoque ecosistmico, implica llevar a cabo la proteccin, conservacin y restauracin de especies, hbitats y procesos ecolgicos, de forma compatible con la explotacin sostenible de sus recursos, al objeto de conseguir el bien mximo para la sociedad a largo plazo desde los puntos de vista ambiental, econmico, social y cultural. Teniendo en cuenta la influencia, directa e indirecta, que en las zonas costeras tiene el sector pesquero sobre el desarrollo de un importante nmero de actividades econmicas, y asumiendo que el concepto de desarrollo sostenible se basa en la consideracin de que el bienestar econmico, la justicia social y la proteccin del medio ambiente son intrnsecamente interdependientes, las actuaciones que se desarrollen en las reas marinas, de forma evidente en las zonas dependientes de la pesca, debern reconocer como figuras centrales en su gestin a las organizaciones locales de pescadores.
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Es por ello que, en el contexto descrito de las AMP y de acuerdo con el trabajo de investigacin desarrollado, se propone la figura de las Zonas de Gestin Regulada de Recursos Marinos (ZGRRM), entendida como una zona marina ordenada, acondicionada mediante la instalacin de arrecifes artificiales de produccin u otros dispositivos o estructuras, para la regeneracin del ecosistema y la mejora de la productividad de los recursos marinos, cuyo aprovechamiento, sometido a exclusividad de uso, permite el desarrollo de actividades tursticas y de ocio relacionadas con las pesqueras tradicionales locales, asistidas por profesionales del sector pesquero.
3 Estudio de una experiencia piloto

3.1 Introduccin La evolucin de las condiciones socioeconmicas, polticas y medioambientales que afectan a la actividad pesquera en la Unin Europea y, de forma especfica en Espaa, ha generado en los ltimos aos una situacin de profunda crisis del sector que est dando lugar a un progresivo abandono de la actividad laboral por parte tanto de empresas como de trabajadores. En este contexto, y con el objetivo de analizar y generar alternativas econmicas para el sector, surgi el Proyecto MEDAS 21 (Medidas contra la exclusin y el desempleo en reas litorales) en el marco de la Iniciativa Equal I (2002-2004) financiada desde el Fondo Social Europeo. Este Proyecto estuvo centrado en el anlisis de las posibilidades de la acuicultura como una actividad econmica complementaria a la pesca, as como en la identificacin de otras iniciativas dirigidas a la gestin sostenible de los recursos pesqueros como fuente de ingresos econmicos y fuente generadora de empleo para el propio sector pesquero. En esta ltima lnea se plante una experiencia piloto centrada en el diseo de un arrecife artificial de produccin ubicado en el litoral de Sancti Petri (Chiclana de la FronteraCdiz), cuyo objetivo era el acondicionamiento de un rea marina para usos pesqueros alternativos apoyados en el desarrollo de actividades asociadas al ocio y al turismo. Esta experiencia piloto, basada en las experiencias de evolucin positiva de ecosistemas marinos y de mejora de los rendimientos pesqueros tras la implantacin de arrecifes de produccin en diferentes zonas del litoral espaol, cont con un claro apoyo por parte de la Secretara General de Pesca Martima del antiguo Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentacin, y con una muy buena acogida por parte del Ayuntamiento de Chiclana de la Frontera y de la Cofrada de pescadores local. Completada la primera fase, con la definicin del rea marina objetivo y el diseo de los mdulos arrecifales, se trabaj en la continuidad de la experiencia piloto pasando a la etapa de ejecucin e instalacin del arrecife artificial de produccin. De esta forma y por medio del Proyecto SAGITAL (Servicios de Adaptacin para la Gestin de Iniciativas Turstico-pesqueras en reas Litorales), enmarcado en la Iniciativa Equal II (2004-2007), en cierto modo sucesor del Proyecto MEDAS 21, pero centrado ms especficamente en impulsar la generacin de alternativas viables de diversificacin laboral en el sector turstico-pesquero, se completa la
experiencia piloto con los trabajos de construccin y fondeo, y se inicia la fase de definicin de una Zona de Gestin Regulada de Recursos Marinos, asociada al arrecife artificial de produccin, y apoyada en un Plan de Seguimiento y Gestin del rea marina por l delimitada. 3.2 Definicin y acondicionamiento del rea de estudio
Figura 1: Delimitacin del rea de estudio e informacin relativa al arrecife artificial de produccin
Para la instalacin del arrecife de produccin y el posterior establecimiento de la Zona de Gestin Regulada de Recursos Marinos se consider conveniente disponer de un rea de extensin reducida que no diese lugar a conflictos de uso, y que adems permitiese una dimensin razonable de costes de ejecucin y puesta en marcha. Esto implicaba que el rea seleccionada para la ZGRRM no interfiriera con las zonas de pesca locales empleadas habitualmente para el desarrollo de las faenas de pesca tradicional y que en ella se pudiera limitar el desarrollo de otras actividades pesqueras profesionales o deportivas ajenas a las definidas en el Plan de Gestin. En base a estos criterios, el arrecife artificial de produccin se ubic en la denominada Zona Arrecifal 3 (ZA-3) dentro del rea declarada Reserva de Uso a favor del Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentacin del Arrecife Artificial de proteccin de recursos pesqueros litorales entre el Castillo de San Sebastin y el Islote de Sancti Petri (Golfo de Cdiz), ocupando un 0,6 % del total de superficie protegida, a unas 6 millas del puerto pesquero de Sancti Petri (figura 1).
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La extensin del rea marina sobre la que se desarrolla la experiencia y en la que se instala el arrecife artificial de produccin es de aproximadamente 7,5 ha (395 x 190 m) con suave pendiente y una profundidad media de 27 metros, lo que permite un fcil acceso para las labores de seguimiento. La estructura de acondicionamiento se compone de 56 mdulos arrecifales alveolares de tres diseos distintos (figura 2), adaptado cada uno a una funcionalidad biolgica diferente, que aportan en conjunto una superficie nueva de fijacin para organismos ssiles de 4.357 m2. El sustrato sobre el que se asientan los mdulos arrecifales es de arenas finas y fangos consolidados con cascajo, de suficiente consistencia para sustentar las estructuras, como lo corrobora la funcionalidad de los arrecifes de proteccin instalados en el ao 2000.
Figura 2: Diseo de los tres tipos de mdulos arrecifales instalados
La primera fase de desarrollo de la experiencia piloto se concluye con la instalacin de los mdulos arrecifales, de acuerdo con las coordenadas originales preestablecidas, fondendolos individualmente desde un buque especializado para dichas tareas, empleando un sistema de posicionamiento con GPS diferencial para el seguimiento y control de cada punto de liberacin. 3.3 Diseo del Plan de Seguimiento y Gestin: consolidacin de la ZGRRM Como se ha definido previamente, una Zona de Gestin Regulada de Recursos Marinos, considerada como instrumento de ordenacin y gestin de reas marinas, est dirigida a conseguir la maximizacin econmica del aprovechamiento de los recursos de forma compatible con la preservacin del ecosistema marino. Por este motivo, enmarcado en el Proyecto
SAGITAL, se procedi al desarrollo de un Plan de Seguimiento y Gestin dirigido a la evaluacin sistemtica del rendimiento ecolgico y pesquero, y al diseo de medidas de control, regulacin y gestin, encaminadas a favorecer el aprovechamiento de los recursos marinos de la ZGRRM de una manera sostenible, implicando directamente en su aplicacin a las cofradas y organizaciones de pescadores. El Plan de Seguimiento tiene como finalidad comprobar si el arrecife consigue cumplir con los objetivos para los que se dise (la regeneracin del ecosistema y la mejora de la productividad de los recursos acuticos para su aprovechamiento mediante el desarrollo de actividades tursticas y de ocio), estableciendo parmetros que permitan evaluar en trminos cuantificables su grado de consecucin. Para ello, es necesario describir y estudiar las comunidades que van colonizando paulatinamente el arrecife artificial al objeto de conocer la presencia y evolucin de los recursos susceptibles de ser empleados en las actividades a desarrollar en la fase de aprovechamiento de la ZGRRM, as como identificar los indicadores que sirvan para determinar la sostenibilidad medioambiental del ecosistema. Es conveniente destacar la importancia de que los trabajos de seguimiento, prospeccin y muestreo se acompaen de fotografas y filmaciones en vdeo, que adems de servir para el anlisis de las poblaciones, permitan generar materiales multimedia con distintas utilidades (didcticas, de difusin, de promocin, etc.). Para la gestin de la informacin resultante de todos los estudios de seguimiento se desarroll una aplicacin informtica sobre un modelo tridimensional del litoral, que incluye el fondo marino y las tierras emergidas prximas a la lnea de costa, obtenido a partir de la documentacin cartogrfica, terrestre y martima, de esos mbitos. Sobre este modelo se ha situado la estructura de mdulos arrecifales existente en la zona representando su configuracin y situacin real (figura 3). La observacin visual del modelo se ha programado simulando diversas formas de navegacin sobre l y, de manera interactiva, se pueden seleccionar arrecifes y acceder o editar la informacin que de cada uno se almacena en una base de datos asociada; de esta forma se puede actualizar y almacenar la evolucin de cada una de las variables de estudio, manteniendo un seguimiento temporal. El Plan de Gestin est dirigido a establecer las directrices generales de la ordenacin de la ZGRRM, que estarn encaminadas a obtener la maximizacin econmica y ecolgica del aprovechamiento sostenido de los recursos acuticos en las actividades de turismo pesquero. Deber permitir la definicin y regulacin especfica de los distintos usos y actividades que se prevea desarrollar, as como el establecimiento de las directrices bsicas de gestin. Para ello, se deber establecer la capacidad de produccin de la ZGRRM a partir de la informacin obtenida en el Plan de Seguimiento sobre las especies de inters comercial, en funcin de los potenciales aprovechamientos y con el apoyo de modelos de dinmica de poblaciones. Posteriormente, se definirn las actividades de aprovechamiento de los recursos ms adecuadas a las caractersticas de la zona, siempre compatibilizando la sostenibilidad del ecosistema marino y la viabilidad econmica de las iniciativas de turismo pesquero.
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Figura 3: Imagen de la aplicacin de visualizacin de la zona de estudio, vista rea superficial (izquierda) y vista submarina del modelo arrecifal en 3D.
Para asegurar el uso sostenible de la ZGRRM, es necesario el establecimiento de una serie de regulaciones y normas que faciliten la gestin de las actividades de aprovechamiento y eviten una excesiva presin sobre los recursos que derive en perdida del rendimiento ptimo del rea. Esta regulacin no tiene por qu ser compleja; de hecho, es preferible que contenga un nmero reducido de normas o medidas tcnicas, fciles de aplicar y de controlar. Para su determinacin se seguirn criterios tcnicos, ecolgicos y econmicos. Otro aspecto importante para la gestin adecuada de la ZGRRM es la labor de vigilancia y guardera, dirigida a evitar actuaciones no permitidas y dainas sobre los recursos marinos. Para ello se plantear la figura del guardapesca, descrita de acuerdo con la legislacin vigente, y se definirn los recursos necesarios, tanto materiales como humanos, para el control correcto de la ZGRRM y su rea de influencia. Consecuentemente, las nuevas actividades econmicas vinculadas a la ZGRRM se realizarn bajo el amparo del Plan de Gestin de acuerdo con las regulaciones y limitaciones que en l se establezcan. Las cofradas jugarn un papel clave como entidades encargadas de la gestin; podrn incorporar internamente esta actividad o bien constituir una entidad independiente -por ejemplo una cooperativa- que realice estas tareas. El objetivo bsico de la gestin es que exista un equilibrio entre el aprovechamiento de los recursos disponibles y su explotacin sostenible. Para ello la entidad de gestin deber tener una perspectiva global y una visin a medio y largo plazo, enfocada a asegurar la viabilidad econmica de las actividades, a fin de que generen para los pescadores nuevas fuentes de ingresos complementarios con su actividad pesquera tradicional. La entidad de gestin realizar tareas como la introduccin de mejoras, la promocin de la actividad, la representacin ante instituciones, la bsqueda de nuevas vas de financiacin, etc., pero su funcin ms importante ser disear, aplicar y controlar el cumplimiento de las medidas de gestin. Esta implicacin directa del sector profesional en la gestin pesquera est en total consonancia con el enfoque propuesto por las administraciones en los nuevos instrumentos de regulacin de las pesqueras regionales, de forma que los procedimientos de trabajo que se consoliden en estas entidades de gestin pueden constituir experiencias piloto trasladables a
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otros entornos. La puesta en marcha del Plan de Gestin implica necesariamente realizar una labor de seguimiento para constatar la eficacia de las medidas de regulacin implantadas en la ZGRRM y el rendimiento de las actividades desarrolladas. Estas labores tendrn como objetivo detectar los puntos dbiles y disear mejoras en el uso y gestin del rea regulada. Dichas mejoras pueden englobar distintos mbitos:
Medio natural. Es importante conocer el efecto sobre el medio que genera la instalacin del arrecife artificial como elemento de produccin, a fin de evaluar la conveniencia de fondear mdulos adicionales en la zona o de transferir la experiencia a otras reas de caractersticas similares. Comunidades biolgicas. El estudio y seguimiento de la evolucin de las poblaciones permitir comprobar la fiabilidad de los modelos desarrollados, y analizar la posible aplicacin de tcnicas concretas de refuerzo, como por ejemplo la liberacin controlada de especies apoyada por tcnicas de ranching. Estructuras. La respuesta de cada mdulo arrecifal al medio aportar informacin de los diseos ptimos, permitiendo la incorporacin de nuevos elementos estructurales que favorezcan el rendimiento de los arrecifes, como podran ser dispositivos de concentracin de peces (DCP), sistemas de alimentacin automtica, etc. Infraestructuras de apoyo. La puesta en marcha de nuevas actividades marcar las necesidades de adaptacin de los recursos materiales existentes para un mejor desarrollo de las mismas y, a su vez, servir para evaluar la posibilidad de generar otras nuevas.
4 Conclusiones
En el trabajo de investigacin desarrollado se trata de constatar la eficacia de la figura de las Zonas de Gestin Regulada de Recursos Marinos, en lnea con el actual enfoque de las reas Marinas Protegidas, como una excelente herramienta de gestin sostenible del ecosistema marino. En este sentido la futura Ley de Pesca Sostenible que sustituir a la Ley 3/2001, de 26 de marzo, de Pesca Martima del Estado, en la actualidad en fase de anteproyecto sometido a informacin pblica1, incorpora en su Artculo 13. Declaracin de zona de proteccin pesquera, la existencia de las reas de acceso preferencial, que, en su desarrollo legislativo, debern posibilitar el establecimiento de zonas de acceso limitado donde la explotacin y gestin dependa de las comunidades locales, validando el modelo propuesto en la experiencia descrita. El hecho de que la experiencia se haya desarrollado sobre un rea perfectamente delimitada, sometida a reserva de uso, y que se haya contado con el apoyo y la participacin de las administraciones pesqueras y del colectivo de pescadores implicado, ha facilitado la definicin de un Plan de Seguimiento y Gestin de la ZGRRM, dirigido a la seleccin y regulacin especfica de los distintos usos y potenciales actividades a desarrollar, as como al
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establecimiento de las directrices bsicas de gestin. En su aplicacin, el Plan de Seguimiento y Gestin de la ZGRRM deber servir para definir las posibilidades de desarrollo de actividades de aprovechamiento de los recursos marinos presentes en la zona, de forma ambiental y econmicamente sostenible, en funcin del grado de colonizacin de los arrecifes artificiales, de la capacidad de carga del ecosistema arrecifal y de las necesidades y prioridades de los pescadores. No obstante, para poder llevar a cabo el desarrollo prctico del Plan de Seguimiento y Gestin de los recursos de la ZGRRM, ser necesario capacitar a los pescadores, favoreciendo en la medida de lo posible la adaptacin de los medios materiales y humanos con que cuentan las cofradas. Igualmente ser necesario detectar lneas de apoyo financiero que favorezcan la consolidacin de las nuevas actividades de turismo pesquero, y establecer lneas de investigacin y desarrollo para la mejora del hbitat y la optimizacin del aprovechamiento de los recursos marinos, en colaboracin con instituciones cientficas y administraciones que acten en el mbito local.
Bibliografa
Ansuategui, A. et al (2006). Las reas marinas protegidas como instrumento de poltica ambiental. ICE Cuadernos econmicos. Claver, I.; Molina, A. (2003). El Proyecto MEDAS 21, una alternativa para luchar contra la exclusin laboral y el desempleo en reas del litoral dependientes de la actividad pesquera. IX Congreso Nacional de Acuicultura. Cdiz. Directiva 2008/56/CE del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo, de 17 de junio de 2008, por la que se establece un marco de accin comunitaria para la poltica del medio marino (Directiva marco sobre la estrategia marina) (DO L 164 de 25.6.2008). Domnech, J. L. (2005). Gestin pesquera sostenible: modelo 3-P, Boletn Econmico del ICE n 2853, pp. 37-57. Molina, A. (2007). Presentation on the SAGITAL Project, member of the LITTORAL network (EQUAL II). Conference on Implementing axis 4 of the EFF, 25-27 January 2007. Sevilla. Spain. Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad en Espaa (2008). Sostenibilidad Local: Una aproximacin urbana y rural. Ramos, A. A. (2002). Arrecifes artificiales como medidas de restauracin de hbitats marinos costeros. Revista Ecosistemas 11 (1). Ramos, A. A. et al (2004). reas marinas protegidas como herramientas de gestin pesquera en el mediterrneo. Informes y Estudios COPEMED, n.11.
Notas:
1 Anteproyecto de Ley de Pesca Sostenible versin 14 de octubre de 2009. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino
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Network research by data graph management for capacity development and knowledge building in sustainable sanitation
David Franquesa1, Caterina Amengual2
1
D. Franquesa y C. Amengual
Php student at UNESCO Chair of Sustainability at the Technical University of Catalonia. Email: d.franquesa@information-works.es 2 rea dEcologia Interdisciplinar of the Universitat de les Illes Balears. Email: caterina.amengual@uib.cat
Summary
The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) provide clear targets by 2015 and it turns out that sanitation is by far the largest of all the MDG targets affecting about 40% of the global population. The objective of the Sustainable Sanitation Alliance (SuSanA) is to show how Sustainable Sanitation projects should be planned with participation of stakeholders through capacity development activities. Developing the capacity of societies to collaboratively learn through change and uncertainty is fundamental for sustainability science. The aim of this contribution it is to analyze the role of graph database management (GDM) for improve capacity development and knowledge building in the Sustainable Sanitation framework. We provide a theoretical model with four features of network research: link analysis, social network, pattern recognition and keyword search that we illustrate with some examples. Network research allows us to observe how the information in Sustainable Sanitation is scattered properly through the structure and also to detect the emergencies, objections and other characteristics of the network. Keywords: Network research, Sustainable Sanitation, Graph Databases Management, Capacity Development, Information Storage and Retrieval
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1 Introduction
In generic terms, sustainable systems are those which can be adapted to changing circumstances (Jeffrey, 1997). In order to be sustainable, a sanitation system has to be not only economically viable, socially acceptable, and technically and institutionally appropriate, it should also protect the environment and the natural resources (SuSanA, 2008). Information and educational programs, introduction of new policies and regulations and capacity building and training of professionals are needed for Sustainable Sanitation ( Rockstrm et al, 2005). The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) are an approach that provide targets promoted by the United Nations in 2000 to reduce poverty, hunger, illiteracy and others to ensure environmental sustainability. It was not until 2002 at the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development were water and sanitation where included as MDG7, target 10. Recently a pathway is formulated to achieve the target on sanitation through the sustainability. There are clear signs in the linkage between sanitation and all the other targets (Rosemarin et al, 2008). Under this framework it is necessary to introduce the concept of ecological sanitation systems as safely recycle excreta and other organic waste products to crop production in such a way that the use of non-renewable resources are minimized. A change in the paradigm is necessary in the water management aspects. We need to end with the up to down vision, and start a learning process between different actors (UNDP, 2006, p. 388). Social learning is needed to start a change towards adaptive management systems to sustainability (Pahl-Wostl, 2007). Capacity development within Sustainable Sanitation it is a dynamic process where learning links up with live experiences to improve outputs, processes and products (Keen et al, 2005). Nowadays there is a lack on the outcomes monitoring when learning activities are done by different institutions at different levels. This field is taking up by improvisation, but it is not always working efficiently. How can engaging institutions record their outcomes in the learning approaches? There is some ways to state the results achieved by knowledge provision? These are some of the question that we try to answer. In the field of Sustainable Sanitation great efforts are leaded to capacity development and training with special emphasis on school sanitation. Pathways for Sustainable Sanitation include a vision as an interplay between human behavior (cultural attitudes and norms) and appropriate technologies requiring stakeholder involvement in the planning and implementation steps (Rosemarin , 2005). Capacity development is understood as a process of unleashing, strengthening, creating and maintaining capacity over time. It applies to individuals, organizations and institutions. Capacity development is more than awareness of technical subjects and general organizational principles and it cannot be imported, but must be led from within the country itself (OECD, 2006). Capacity development within Sustainable Sanitation it is a dynamic process where learning links up with live experience to improve outputs, processes and products. Sufficient time and resources are necessary components to connect acquired capacity with action (SuSanA factsheet, 2009). The Sustainable Sanitation Alliance joint
organizations and institutions to work together in the learning process (SuSanA, 2008). This process is suited in the learning-by-doing approach, where both partners are learning at the same time. How can their record the effect of the appropriate knowledge and the level on the competences in an area as intangible as social learning? To provide the world with more Sustainable Sanitation solutions will require enormous efforts in the area of capacity development. New tools are needed to evaluate the achievements made in this field. This paper argues that if the information on sustainable sanitation resides on relational data model, this imposes difficulties for decision making based on exploration of the relationships among the data, such as paths, neighborhoods, patterns, and in definitive all queries based on entities that are interconnected satisfying a given constraint. That means a bad performance on time and cost. For improve this, we present a technology based on Graph Database Models (GDMs) that implements efficiently four basic features of network research: link analyses, pattern recognition, social network and keyword search, as well as many applied research examples for decision making focused on capacity development and knowledge building activities. Changes are basically from a hierarchical structure to a network one. In the first, changes in the structure are controlled by an organization based on previous knowledge, while the second model is developed while growing the knowledge on itself.
2 Background
2.1 Holistic approach The holistic view, proposed among others by the principles of Bellagio, is addressed in systems thinking. Systems thinking is the attitude of the human being that is based on the perception of the real world in terms of totalities for their analysis, unlike the approach of the classical scientific method, which only sees the parts of this and so disjointed. Formally appears about 45 years ago, from the questions in the field of biology, (Bertalanffy , 1984) questioned the application of scientific method to problems of biology, because this was based on a mechanistic and causal that was weak as the scheme for the explanation of the major problems that occur in living beings. This question raised an intellectual paradigm to better understand the world around us, the emerging the paradigm of systems theory. Systems theory integrates in the analysis of situations and in the conclusions derived from them, suggesting solutions that are considered to have several elements and relationships that form the structure of which is defined as a "system" and everything that makes up the system environment defined. The basic philosophy behind this position is the holism from the Greek (holos = whole). Better understand the interlinkages between social and natural systems will help us take the appropriate action to act in coherence with the natural system, this is a concept linked to resilience (Holling, 2003). Sustainable Development would be one in which disturbances
generated from the social system could be 'embedded' with the natural without assuming a change of state which, in turn, affect strongly the dynamics of the social system. Achieving this goal requires action types: Coping with the impact of the shocks produced by the social system (trying to 'sync' human activities with the cycles of natural subsystem), and increase the capacity of the two subsystems to adapt to shocks (Prez, 2008). Learning provides a basis for the joint action required to respond to socialecological feedback (Folke, 2006, p. 253-267). How decision support systems will help us on making sustainable development decisions if the underlying data model is too much structured and does not act effectively when our data are not structured. It seems that the theory of Ashby (1956) is still in effect, he proposed his Law of Requisite Variety, which stated that a model (i.e. a representation) can only represent some aspect of reality if it has sufficient internal variety to capture the complexity of that reality 2.2 Network research for Sustainable Development In knowledge management social network research has been successfully with the aim of help to organizations better exploit the knowledge and capabilities distributed across its members (Davies, 2005, p. 133-149). A network map shows the nodes and links in the network. Nodes can be people, groups or organizations. Links can show relationships, flows, or transactions. A network map is an excellent tool for visually tracking your ties and designing strategies to create new connections, and also excellent talking documents visual representations that support conversations about possibilities. Network research is hot today, with the number of articles in the Web of science on the topic of "social networks" nearly tripling in the past decades (Borgatti et al, 2009, p. 892-895). It affords to explain social phenomena in different approaches. Whereas traditional social research explained and individual's outcomes or characteristics as a function of other characteristics of the same individual (e.g., income as a function of education and gender), social network researchers look to the individual's social environment for explanations, whether through influence processes (e.g., individuals adopting their friends' occupation choices) or leveraging processes (e.g., an individual can get certain things done because of the connection he has to powerful others) (Borgatti et al, 2009, p. 892-895). For analyzing intensity of relations among stakeholders social network analysis can be used. Networks provide a broad and inclusive framework (Davies, 2005, p. 133-149): 1. Networks can be described and analyzed at many scales, from interactions between individuals in small rural communities to international linkages between large organizations, 2. There is a range of tools available to describe and measure networks, which is relevant to the analysis, planning and evaluation of change in those networks, 3. There is an extensive and developing body of theory and research on the nature of networks, that spans many disciplines, and which is available to help inform development
agencies theories of change. There are other areas of research and theorizing about social networks that have relevance to development aid projects. In the health sector there is already an established record of social network analysis techniques being used as part of epidemiological studies (Morris and IUSSP, 2004), as well as in studies of the effectiveness of health communications, especially in the field of HIV/AIDS (Davies, 2005, p. 133-149).
3 Graph Database Management and DEX technology

The term data model or database model has been widely used in the information management community: it covers various meanings. In the most general sense, a database model is a collection of conceptual tools used to model representations of real-world entities and the relationships among them (Silberschatz et al, 2008, p. 105-108). The term is also often used to refer to a collection of data structure types. 3.1 Limitations of the relational data model The differences between GDM and the relational data model are manifold. The relational model is geared towards simple record-type data, where the data structure is known in advance (airline reservations, accounting, inventories, etc.). The schema is fixed, which makes it difficult to extend these databases. It is not easy to integrate different schemas, nor is it automatable. The query language cannot explore the underlying graph of relationships among the data, such as paths, neighborhoods, patterns (Angles, 2008, p.39). The relational data model is now more than 30 years old. It is worth for a large number of scenarios and can handle certain types of data very well. For data that is semistructured and/or network oriented, the relational database offers poor runtime characteristics. Furthermore, it forces a static development cycle and is of little help to those who have to cope with a domain model that is constantly changing, even after deployment. This translates to wasted development time and money. Classical model were criticized for their lack of semantics, the flatness of the permitted data structures, the difficulties the user has to see the data connectivity, and how difficult it is to model complex objects (Levene and Poulovassilis, 1990, p. 520-530). 3.2 When GDM should be applied? The development of huge networks such Internet, geographical systems, transportation or automatically generated social network databases, has brought the need to manage information with inherent graph-like nature (Angles, 2008, p.39). In these scenarios, users not only keen on retrieving plain tabular data from entities, but also relationships with other entities using explicit or implicit values and links to obtain more elaborated information. In addition, users are typically not interested in obtaining a list of results, but a set of entities that are interconnected
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satisfying a given constraint. Cases like bibliographic database are a clear example where a more complex querying system would be beneficial. In these scenarios, the user might not be only interested in finding a specific author or publication, but to analyze the relationships within a group of authors or publication, to understand the relevance of a specific paper or any other implying the exploration of the relationships between entities (Martinez-Bazan et al, 2007, p. 573-582). Those environments impose three important problems: (i) the continuous growth of the data sources, (ii) the need for a versatile querying system that allows Information Retrieval queries with different flavors ranging from keyword search to the complex mining of patterns in graphs, and (iii) the need to integrate data coming from different sources to enrich the answers to complex queries over incomplete databases. GDM are applied in areas where information about data interconnectivity or topology is more important, or as important, as the data itself. In these applications, data and relations among data are usually at the same level. Introducing graphs as a modeling tool has several advantages for this type of data (Angles, 2008, p.39): 6. It allows for a more natural modeling of data. Graph structures are visible to the user and they allow a natural way of handling applications data, for example, hypertext or geographic data. Graphs have the advantage of being able to keep all the information about an entity in a single node and showing related information by arcs connected to it (Paredaens and Tanca, 1995, p.436-453). Graph objects (like paths and neighborhoods) may have first order citizenship; a user can define some part of the database explicitly as a graph structure (Gting, 1994, p. 297-308), allowing encapsulation and context definition (Levene and Poulovassilis, 1990, p. 520-530). 7. Queries can refer directly to this graph structure. Associated with graphs are specific graph operations in the query language algebra, such as finding shortest paths, determining certain subgraphs, and so forth. It is not important to require full knowledge of the structure to express meaningful queries (Abiteboul, 1997, p.1-18). Finally, for purposes of browsing it may be convenient to forget the schema (Buneman, 1997, p. 117121). 3.3 Framework: DEX Technology based on GDM In this subsection we present DEX as a possible technology based on GDMs, DEX is a highperformance exploration tool on large graphs for information retrieval. DEX affords the efficient implementation of four basic features of network research: link analyses, pattern recognition, social network and keyword search, afford realize different kinds of queries for graph exploration. DEX is developed by DAMA-UPC1 and is basically characterized by three properties: (i) data structures are graphs or any other structure similar to a graph; (ii) data manipulation and queries are based on graph oriented operations; (iii) and there are data
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constraints to guarantee the integrity of the data and its relationships. In Figure 1 we can see a graph structure for the case of Bibex, a bibliographical database, where relations are authors writing scientific papers. Queries are based on authors or keywords and exploring the graph one can obtain related information and statistics.
Figure 1: Shape of a query in Bibex
4 Theoretical model with DEX technology for Sustainable Sanitation

Data on Sustainable Sanitation is highly-interconnected and has a complex structure, which is difficult to capture in any current database (Excel files, Forums, many databases, etc.). Sustainable Sanitation information system is based on relational model, this model are well suited for queries based on values, like equalities or range search, but in these models the exploration of relationships must be always set explicitly by joins even if foreign keys have been declared, and it becomes really difficult to explote all the potential relationships of a node, institution or project. For self-relationships, the relational queries require recursive extensions that are more difficult to create and manage. On the opposite side, the natural mechanism of GDMs is the automatic exploration of the relationships in a graph, represented in the form of edges between nodes. It is a relationship rather than a value oriented analysis. It seems that the problem of Sustainable Sanitation Alliance and many other growing organizations related to sustainable science that fall into their database, it is not designed to integrate data from multiple sources, or to respond efficiently queries based on entities that are interconnected satisfying a give constraint, and other issues that are not come by default in relational model. New forms of organization are emerging to deal with sustainable science
process. These do not have a closed structure from the beginning; they are growing spontaneously through the learning process. The network offers numerous resources and communication channels for Sustainable Sanitation learning partners. The resource format is diverse, so are videos that cover a specific problem, such as forums where experts to advice staff that is carrying out projects in the nodes. The data from our system come from different bakeries (e.g. db, Forums, Emails, ...). We have to collect all this data and give to the users the possibility to analyze it. The main drawback of Sustainable Sanitation is interlace all this information, place it in the partners and provides an impact assessment that causes this information when reach on-line to the users or on-site trainings. 4.1 Sustainable Sanitation data Model proposal The following Figure 2 is an E/R diagram that conceptualize some of the entities that could be related on capacity development activities on the Sustainable Sanitation field. The principal data sets are PERSON, which contains all individuals involved in any activity; ACTIVITY, which contains basic information of each activity on capacity development or knowledge building, ROLE_P, which contains who (PERSONS) and how (ROLE_TYPE) are they participated into a activity , LINK, which contains the relations between activities using different types of links (Cites, Answer,).
Figure 2: E/R Diagram of Sustainable Sanitation
Figure 3 is an list of instances that could be inside the information system. e.g. ACTIVITY_TYPE holds a set of tools for capacity building that can be found in Sustainable Sanitation, expressed as a relational database model.
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Figure 3: Example Instances of E/R Diagram
4.2 Use Cases The objective of this section is to verify the capability of the model to solve different kinds of queries that practitioners and researchers need to do in they day to day work. The examples are grouped by four features, as we have presented with the DEX model: a) Link analysis, b) Social networks, c) Pattern recognition and d) Keyword search. This features results essentials when members of Sustainable Sanitation want to assess the impact of its activities in capacity development. During the development we present the results in a map network form for each query launched. 4.2.1 Link Analysis In Link Analysis we are interested on exploring the relations between the nodes of the graph, navigating the edges between them, e.g. to get all the information of a Sustainable Sanitation conference, the result is a graph where you can visualize, different kinds of relationships to this conference (board directors, assistants, topics, scientific panel, publications, relations among stakeholders established thank to this meeting, etc). Query 1 (Q1): Get all the information of a conference (ACTIVITY_TYPE = conference) An example of link analysis is Q1, where all the information of a conference is obtained in a single graph. The root node will be a node from the data set ACTIVITY with ACTIVITY_TYPE = "conference". From this initial node, we explode a graph containing all the ROLE_P and ROLE_O (Role of persons and organizations in Sanitation conferences), persons, information of the tags used, including the chain of information referenced to the root by LINK, that can be any kind of ACTIVITY_TYPE. Note that this could pose a serious problems to traditional relational systems that would have to resort to recursive queries including a large number of join operations, increasing significantly the complexity of such queries (Martinez-Bazan et al, 2007) A simplificated example of information retrieved for movie Water and sanitation in NIGER challenges is Figure 4.
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Figure 4: Q1, Conference link analysis
4.2.2 Social Network Previous query show that DEX can be used to explode the links between different entities in a graph. Now, we depict an example where DEX is used to analyze social networks. Social Network is focused on the relationship between different groups of nodes with the same affinity. Let us consider all the technical experts in our database who have participated in the same sanitation project to form a group in a social network. Specifically, we define a partnership as the relationship between two capacity development experts who have performed in the same project. Additionally, we impose two restrictions to this query. First, we restrict just to items tagged as sanitation projects. Second, we restrict the participation as a technical expert. We apply these two conditions because (i) we want to increase the query complexity rather than always exploring everything and, (ii) our database contains a lot of items extracted from NGO, blogs, journal database, etc that could provide unrealistic relationships between technical experts. Query 2 (Q2): Find the minimum collaboration distance between two technical experts. Q2, tries to find the minimum distance between two persons that has worked as a technical. If distance is 1 it means that both have worked in the same project; a distance of 2 means that they never worked together, but exists at least another partner who has done a project with both of them. Query 3 (Q3): Find the full relationships network of all the partners of a technical expert. Q3 is a more complex query. Instead of looking for relationships between two experts, we are now interested in knowing the full network of relationships of all the partners of one expert. This kind of analysis provides us with a lot of information about partnership patterns, groups of technician based on the sanitation agencies.
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4.2.3 Pattern recognition Pattern recognition defines a different kind of queries, where a lot of potential graphs can be created and explored, but only a few of them will qualify because they mach a certain pattern. Query 4 (Q4): Find all the responsible that have worked with the same technical expert in three different projects made in a period of time of five years. As an example of pattern recognition, Q4 tries to find all the coordinators with three projects in less than five years with the same technical expert, i.e., it would be some kind of 'muse' detector query. This is a complex query that not only requires pattern detection but also involves several data filters like coordinator role, technical expert role or ACTIVITY_TYPE equal to project. See Figure 5.
Figure 5: Q4, 'muse' detector
Query 5 (Q5): How many practitioners are doing BIOGAS trainings and projects after receive a training course? The purpose of this query is to find a training course that has led to other training courses and projects within the same topic. The training courses that appear may be considered that have had a desired impact. For example in Figure 6, Mike in 2008 was the teacher of a course on BIOGAS. In this course attended Augusto, who in turn was the teacher of a subsequent course - also on Biogas- where he attended John, and also Augusto did a project on Biogas. This query uses de feature of pattern recognition, based on exploration of the relationships among the data, such as patterns, and return all entities are interconnected satisfying a given constraint.
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Figure 6: Q5, Mike impact training
4.2.4 Keyword search Finally we describe Keyword search as a network research characteristic. In others queries the user knows the schema or at least part of it. We assume that the user has knowledge on how the data is structured. However, this assumption may be unrealistic in some scenarios like the web or documental database. DEX is also suitable to perform a keyword search, where the user is assumed not to know anything about the organization of the data. In conventional databases models like the relational model, this time of search requires a full indexing of all the string columns and it becomes unfeasible due to the high cost in terms of storage size and performance. DEX can take advantage of dictionaries and compressed structures (Martinez-Bazan et al, 2007, p. 573-582). Query 6 (Q6): Return all the context information of all the entities containing the tag Biogas production, expert John Smith and Country India. Such queries are done separately in different information sources, db queries, queries in forums, consultations db project. Sustainable Santitation does not has a tool that integrates all sources in one query, in spite of the use of Internet search engines, but narrow the search to the semantic domain of Sustainable Sanitation is difficult or is not possible, and the format of results presented to the user is only a list. The present potential for the user is the ability to perform a search across different data sources and show the results in a visual format that allows the user to navigate easily. The Figure 7 shows the result obtained with word "Biogas production".
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Figure 7: Q6, Biogas production search
5 Practical example in a query

We explain a case using again four kind of features: link analysis, social networks, pattern recognition and keyword search. We are based this example in a real case study on Sustainable Sanitation alliance website (Rieck, C.; Onyango, P., 2009). We supose a responsible for Sustainable Sanitation partnership project coordination; who have to develop a project with a very tight budget, living in a city of Africa quite distant from experts on Sustainable Sanitation. In addition, the staff does not have all the necessary skills to develop the project. This is the reality in most of the deployments. We need to find an expert who can do training to our staff in the need it skills. The result would be a set experts names that could do the training or recommend somebody to do it. We can start this research with a query as: give me all the information about Projects and Trainings in Kenia related to Biogas and Urine Diverting De-hydrating Toilets UDDTs.
Figure 8: Projects or Trainings in Kenia about Biogas or UDDTs

Patrick Onyango seems to be the person that has done more projects and trainings about Biogas and UDDTs. Before contacting him, we decided to investigate, to validate the quality of related ACTIVITIES they have done, we use link analysis feature, just doing a click in the edges between Patrick Onyango and Biogas and UDDTs we can explore the information related to these projects and workshops, see figure 9
Figure 9: Projects or Trainings of Patrick Onyango
After validating the relation between Patrick and Biogas, we want their referrals. Who do we ask? Then we make a Social Network query that will return people who have been in relationship with Patrick Onyango and have been in relationship with SuSanA organitzations. In Figure 10 there are the persons and their relationship with Patrick. If we want we can go on doing more link analysis in these relationships.
Figure 10: Social network between Patrick Onyango and members of SuSanA organitzation
After make this network research we can have clear idea about the scene on biogas in Kenya, among the people who is involved in different projects. The main advantage is that GDM can analyze information from different sources together, so you are not supposed to introduce manually all the information in a unique database. The search engine can track the information generated in different formats.
6 Conclusions
This paper argues that if the information on Sustainable Sanitation resides on relational data model, this imposes difficulties for decision making based on exploration of the relationships among the data, such as paths, neighborhoods, patterns, and in definitive all queries based on entities that are interconnected satisfying a given constraint. The main feature of GDM is that data model can hold the interrelationships between the elements more efficiently than relational databases. Appling the DEX technology - one of the technologies that implements GDM -, we can retrieve information from the global World Wide Web to the local documents or databases and dump it in a graph data warehouse system, and make basic and complex network operations that can bring us interesting information about the capacity development activities and their interaction. This approach is not a close tool; it should be seen as a new perspective on the data collection, store and query analyzing. It improves research of the network through the features of: link analyses, pattern recognition, social network and keyword search. These features can be efficiently used to manage and evaluate more easily the capacity development and knowledge building process. Some examples of how to deal with complex questions have been exposed to express the novelty of this network research system. This approach could help in the social learning process because can empower to someone who is just beginning on Sustainable Sanitation to deal the complexity when this person have a few knowledge on the hole scene. The possibility to manage larges amounts of information through their relations open a new paradigm based on systems thinking than can help to advance on the necessary pathway to sustainability on sanitation.
Acknowledgements
We thank to the EASY-ECO programme to give us the opportunity to share knowledge among scholars interested in sustainability assessment. Also to the open-source concept for capacity development used on the Sustainable Sanitation Alliance website2, that help us to work with real data on the field. Finally to the Information Works GmbH. who supports the research of David Franquesa on the topic of information management for Sustainability.
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Bibliographic references
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Rieck, C.; Onyango, P. (2009). Naivasha Public Toilet Facility with Water Kiosk. Case study of SuSanA projects. Sustainable Sanitation Alliance. http://www.susana.org/lang-en/case-studies/region/ssa [Accessed 5/12/2009] Rockstrm, J.; Nilsson, G.; Falkenmark, M.; Lannerstad, M.; Rosemarin, A.; Caldwell, I.; Arvisdons, A.; Nordstrm, M. (2005). Sustainable Pathways to Attain the Millennium Development Goals: Assessing the Key Role of Water, Energy and Sanitation, Stockholm Environmental Institute, Sweden. Rosemarin, A. (2005). Putting Sanitation on the Sustainable Development Agenda, 3rd International Conference on Ecological Sanitation. Durban, South Africa. Rosemarin, A.; Ekane, N.; Caldwell, I; Kvarnstrm, E.; McConville, J.; Ruben, C.; Frodge, M. (2008). Pathways for sustainable sanitation IWA, London Silberschatz, A.; Korth, H. F.; Sudarshan, S. (1996) . Data models, ACM Computing Surveys, 28, 1, p. 105108. SuSanA. (2008). Towards more sustainable sanitation solutions, Version <http://www.susana.org/images/documents/02-vision/en-susana-vision-statement-I-version-1-2-feb2008.pdf> [Accessed 19/04/2009] 1.2.
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Notes:
1 DAMA-UPC, the DAta MAnagement group at Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya (UPC) is part of the Computer Architecture Department (DAC). http://www.dama.upc.edu 2 www.susana.org
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The sustainable consumption of domestic products: the environmental effect of packaging

Montse Meneses 1,a,b, Jorgelina Pasqualino2,a and Francesc Castells3,a M. Meneses et al. a AGA, Chemical Engineering Department, Rovira i Virgili University, Avinguda dels Pasos Catalans 26, 43007 Tarragona, Spain. Web page: http://www.aga.etseq.urv.cat b Systems Engineering and Automatic Control Group. ETSE. Universitat Autnoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain e-mail1: montse.meneses@uab.es e-mail2: jorgelina.paqualino@urv.cat e-mail3: francesc.castells@urv.cat
Abstract
Today consumers are offered a wide range of packaging alternatives for the same product, including food items, cleaning products or health care articles, although these products are used for identical purposes. There is a crucial need to increase our knowledge of the environmental consequences of domestic product packaging in order to implement improvements that promote sustainability. A life cycle assessment (LCA) case study was performed in order to detect and quantify the environmental impact of different packaging options (materials (plastics, glass, can, tetra brick) and sizes (200 ml, 1 liter, 5 liters, etc.)) for one type of domestic product (beverage). Furthermore, two final disposal options (recycling and landfilling) were compared to evaluate the impact of each method on the environment. The results of the LCA for the different packaging types indicate that disposing of recyclable materials in landfills has a far greater environmental impact than recycling those materials. This means that recycling activities are not only beneficial in protecting the environment but also in terms of saving precious land space. Results of the life cycle impact assessment for the different packaging systems demonstrate the critical importance of recycling packaging material rather than disposing of it in landfills. Key words: sustainability, sustainable packaging, waste management, responsible consumption
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M. Meneses et al.
1 Introduction
With the increasing awareness of the importance of maintaining the life-support systems of our planet, methods for assessing best practices are becoming more important not only among a growing number of policymakers and consumers but also among industry intent on supporting sustainable business practices. Increasing concern about environmental protection and a broader awareness of sustainable development issues have focused more and more attention on the environmental impact of products through the different phases of their life cycles. Packaging plays a vital role in society, but it is also a topic of intense public debate. A major environmental concern is the increasing amounts of solid waste, of which packaging constituents a considerable share. In Europe, packaging waste represents approximately 17% of municipal solid waste by weight and 3% of the total waste stream (Huang and Ma, 2004). Packaging has a relatively short lifetime; consequently, the amount of packaging waste approximately equals the amount of packaging on the market. Several issues are taken into account when choosing packaging for foods. Consumers consider food quality and proper preservation as the most important aspects when choosing a product, so product packaging must therefore ensure that both of these needs are met. According to companies, a pleasant image, strong marketing appeal and correct product identification are other very important characteristics in package design. But such an approach cannot be complete if it does not pay enough attention to environmental considerations, as provided for in the 94/62/EC Directive on packaging and packaging waste (Monte, Padoano and Pozzetto, 2005). Industry is realizing that the impact of products on the environment does not start and end with the manufacturing process. The impact a product has on the world starts with the design and ends with the ultimate disposal of the product after its useful life. Therefore, it is important not only to have a means of determining the environmental impact of the production process, but also of determining the environmental impact of the product itself and to quantify that impact. The life cycle concept means that everything put into the cycle (energy, materials, etc.) as well as the output (products, energy, waste materials, etc.) is evaluated at each step of the products life. Many studies have evaluated the environmental aspects associated with packaging systems. It is important to increase our knowledge of the environmental consequences of domestic product packaging production and disposal in order to implement improvements that promote sustainability. Because of that it is essential to inform the consumer about the environmental implications of the whole products life cycle. With this objective, we have developed a web application directed to the general public, that contains environmental information for different packaging options of the most commonly found products in Spanish basic market basket (APQUA, 2009). The main objective of this work is to compare the life cycle assessments (LCA) of four packaging material alternatives used for beverages: glass, plastic, tetra brick and aluminum cans. Different packaging sizes are also assessed depending on the material (e.g. 200 ml and 1 liter
tetra brick; 200 ml, 1 liter and 5 liter plastic, etc.), and the effects of recycling the material as opposed to disposing of it in landfill.
2 Methodology
We used LCA as an environmental assessment method in this study, following the methodology indicated by international standards (ISO 14040, 2006; ISO 14044, 2006). The functional unit was the packaging required to contain 1 liter of beverage. Therefore, all data presented here refer to this functional unit. The system boundaries considered include the production of the packaging and its final disposal in landfill or by means of recycling. In the recycling scenario only the recovered material was considered as avoided load. In any case, for the recycling scenario, we did not consider the beneficial environmental load of avoiding landfilling. As this is a packaging comparative study, the impact of the beverage was not considered. The packaging options studied are detailed in table 1, including the packaging materials, the beverage content and the packaging weight related to 1 liter of beverage. The recycled scenario was based on 100% of the packaging being recycled. The loss rates for recovered material considered are indicated in table 1, and they are expressed as ton of product made per ton of recovered material (EPA, 2002). These values are representative of a general situation and consider the percentage of recovered materials retained in the recovery stage, and the percentage of recycled material obtained at the recycling stage. The LCA inventory was made and the environmental loads calculated by adapting data from the ecoinvent v2.01 database (Swiss Centre for Life-Cycle Inventories, 2007) to the Spanish energy mix and the European model for transport and water. We calculated two indicators: Global Warming (GWP, kg CO2 eq) and Cumulative Energy Demand (CED, MJ). Recovered Material Brick Brick Can Can Glass Glass Glass Plastic Plastic Plastic Plastic Types Brick Brick Aluminum can Aluminum can Green (G) White (W) Brown (B) HDPE HDPE PET PET Sizes 200 ml 1l 330 ml 500 ml 750 ml 1l 1l 200 ml 1l 330 ml 1,5 l Weights (g) rate 55.0 37.7 48.5 34.7 727.5 501.5 470.4 92.8 35.4 47.8 24.3 78 % 78 % 93 % 93 % 88 % 88 % 88 % 78 % 78 % 78 % 78 % Uses Milk, juice, wine Milk, juice, wine Beer, soft drinks Beer Wine Milk, juice Beer Juice Milk, juice Water Water
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Plastic Plastic
PET PET
5l 8l
22.8 19.3
78 % 78 %
Water, wine Water
Table 1: Beverage packaging types studied
3 Results and discussion

The results for the CED and GWP indicators are presented in figures 1 and 2 respectively, in percentage format. The value of 100% was assigned to the highest impact and the remaining percentages were calculated based on that impact.
100 80 60 40 % 20 0 -20 -40 -60 HDPE 200ml Glass G 750ml PET 330ml HDPE 1L PET 1,5L PET 5L Can 330ml Brick 200ml Can 500ml Brick 1L Glass W 1L Glass B 1L PET 8L -80
Recycled
Landfilled
Figure 1: Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) for different beverage packaging alternatives
When comparing the final disposal scenarios, we observed that for both indicators the recycling scenario is better than the landfill disposal scenario as it implies a lesser environmental impact. The difference between the two disposal options depends not only on the treatment operation but also, in the case of recycling, on the material recovered. The environmental loads related to the recycling of glass bottles are negative for the CED indicator, thus representing an environmental benefit. It is also important to consider that the CED of glass reflects the savings in energy and raw materials that the production of new glass would entail. When comparing different packaging materials, the lowest environmental impact for both GWP and CED in the landfilling scenario are caused by brick and plastic packaging (both PET and HDPE of more than 1 liter). The same comparison for the recycling scenario indicates that, according to the GWP indicator, brick and PET materials also have the lowest environmental
impacts. However, the CED indicator shows an environmental benefit for glass bottles due to avoided loads. Recycling has a beneficial effect on the total amount of equivalent CO2 emitted as a consequence of material production.
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 HDPE 200ml Glass G 750ml PET 330ml HDPE 1L PET 1,5L PET 5L Brick 200ml Can 330ml Can 500ml Brick 1L Glass W 1L Glass B 1L PET 8L 0 %
Recycled
Landfilled
Figure 2: Global Warming Potential (GWP) for different beverage packaging alternatives
When comparing different packaging sizes for the same material, we found that as a consequence of the reduction of packaging material per unit of product, the higher the volume content of the packaging, the lower the environmental impact for the same amount of beverage (1 liter).
4 Conclusions
4. Recycling beverage packaging materials induces a lower environmental impact than disposing of such materials in landfills, for all materials and sizes compared. 5. Brick and plastic packaging (for more than 1 liter of content) present the lowest environmental impact for both indicators and disposal scenarios. 6. Glass recycling, because of the energy and raw material savings it entails, is recommended according to the CED indicator, when recycling is ensured and the quality of the product is reliant on its packaging. 7. Larger packages are always better than smaller ones for the same amount of liquid. Optimal packaging sizes should always be considered. 8. The goal is to encourage the use of packaging that requires the least amount of energy
M. Meneses et al.
and natural resources and has the lowest emission levels possible.
Bibliographical references
Huang, C-C.; Ma, H-W. (2004). A multidimensional environmental evaluation of packaging materials, Science of the Total Environment., 324, p. 161-172. Monte, de M.; Padoano, E.; Pozzetto, D. (2005). Alternative coffee packaging: an analysis from a life cycle point of view, Journal of food engineering., 66, p. 405-411. APQUA. (2009). Joc de la Compra Sostenible, ETSEQ. Universitat Rovira i Virgili. http://jocapqua.urv.es (available in Catalan). ISO 14040. (2006). Environmental Management - Life Cycle Assessment Principles and Framework, International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), Geneva, Switzerland. ISO 14044. (2006). Environmental Management - Life Cycle Assessment - Requirements and Guidelines, International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), Geneva, Switzerland. EPA. (2002). Solid Waste Management And Greenhouse Gases A Life-Cycle Assessment of Emissions and Sinks, 2nd EDITION. Swiss Centre for Life-Cycle Inventories. (2007). Ecoinvent v2.01, database. www.ecoinvent.org, Dbendorf, Switzerland.
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Revista Internacional de Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Direccin: Consejo de Redaccin. Ctedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad. Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya.

Edifici "L'Escola Industrial de Terrassa" C/. Colom, 1 08222 Terrassa Espaa

Tel: +34 93 739 80 50 Fax: +34 93 739 80 32 E-mail: sth@catunesco.upc.edu http://www.catunesco.upc.edu

Produccin y diseo: Ana Andrs y Jordi Bofill.

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Figura 4: Tringulo 3D de la sostenibilidad de Dyllick & Hockers. Fuente: Mauerhofer (2008)

Figura 6: Prisma de a la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: Spangenberg, J. SERI

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Figura 8: Barmetro de la sostenibilidad de Prescott-Allen. Fuente: Kronemberger et al. (2008)

Figura 9: Modelo vectorial de la Sostenibilidad Integral de Jimnez Herrero (2000)

contemplamos la tendencia entrpica de los procesos naturales. (2002, p. 72)

Figura 11: Compas de la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: UNESCO 2002.

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Tabla. 1: Equivalencias para determinar configuracin de la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: Elaboracin propia.

Figura 13: Propuesta vectorial de la Sostenibilidad. Fuente: Elaboracin propia.

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

* Title:Sustainability Report for Catalonia

2 Seleccin y clasificacin de los indicadores

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

Indicadores ambientales Indicadores sociales Indicadores institucionales Indicadores econmicos

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

TEMA USO DE RECURSOS

SUBTEMA 2 Energa primaria

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Generacin y composicin de los residuos industriales Tratamiento-Valorizacin de los residuos industriales

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Especies en peligro de extincin

Tabla 1 : Indicadores ambientales

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Tabla 2: Indicadores sociales

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

DEUDA PBLICA COOPERACIN Y SOLIDARIDAD INTERNACIONAL

Tipologas de cooperacin Sociedad civil

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Control de las instituciones

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua Tabla 3: Indicadores institucionales

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

Tabla 4: Indicadores econmicos

7 Anlisis de los indicadores

Figura 1: Mortalidad infantil. Fuente: Idescat, INE, Eurostat.

Informe de sostenibilidad de Catalua

8 Anlisis sistmico de Catalua

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation analysis in two models of sustainable development

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation analysis in two models of sustainable development

2 Two-dimensional mathematical model

Revista Internacional Sostenibilidad, Tecnologa y Humanismo. Nmero 4. Ao 2009

Figure 1: Codimension-one bifurcation diagram, when parameter (technological parameter) is varied.

3 Five-dimensional mathematical model