Lecture Overview

Risk analysis for gravitational hazards: Concept and Example from Switzerland
Natural hazards, law and levels of spatial planning Integral risk management approach Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH

Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland

Measure for prevention and mitigation

Natural hazards, law and levels of spatial planning

General approach in Switzerland:
principle of subsidiarity => (Planning) actions are taken on the level on which natural hazards occur => Higher planning levels should only be involved when there is a clear added value in doing so
(KAWA, TBA, AGR 1999; http://www.cor.eu.int/de/press/press_05_10114.html)

Planning levels
On national level On canton (Kanton) level On community level
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Natural hazards, law and levels of spatial planning

Natural hazards, law and levels of spatial planning

The main responsibilities for natural hazards are on canton and community level Self-responsibility of population is equally important Responsibilities are treated in laws about
Hydraulic engineering Forest
(KAWA, TBA, AGR, 1999)

Natural hazards, law and levels of spatial planning

Hazard & risk identification

Step 1

Canton and community Natural hazards to be considered during all spatial relevant actions Communities are responsible for prevention of natural hazards
(KAWA, TBA, AGR, 1999)

Step 2

Risk evaluation

Communities are responsible for timely recognising and treating of the occurrence and development of NH Canton has to provide spatial planning basis Communities are responsible for an adequate consideration of NH in community plans (Use of Hazard maps in plans of utilization)

Step 3

Incorporation of risk (planning)

Step 4
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Risk treatment

If life or valuable EE are threaten by NH adequate measures need to be implemented Communities have to arrange measures

Prevention and mitigation of natural hazards by

Spatial planning
Risk evaluation => Hazard map (Canton, community) Determination of hazard zones (community)

Organizational measures
Early warning systems (National level) Hazard mitigation, evacuation, protection of effected EE (local and individual level)

Protective structures (Canton, community, individual) Protective forest (national level)

http://www.umwelt-schweiz.ch/buwal/de/fachgebiete/wald/naturgefahren/index.html
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Prevention and mitigation of natural hazards: Protective structures

http://www.umwelt-schweiz.ch/buwal/de/fachgebiete/wald/naturgefahren/index.html

Prevention and mitigation of natural hazards: Protective forest

http://www.umweltschweiz.ch/buwal/de/ fachgebiete/wald/nat urgefahren/index.htm

Prevention of hazard Mitigation of impact Main part of integral risk approach Acts upon large areas and protection against different hazards Middle- to long-term effects
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Prevention and mitigation of natural hazards by

Spatial planning
Risk evaluation => Hazard map (Canton, community) Determination of hazard zones (community)

Organizational measures
Early warning systems (National level) Hazard mitigation, evacuation, protection of effected EE (local and individual level)

Protective structures (Canton, community, individual) Protective forest (national level) Premature triggering
http://www.umwelt-schweiz.ch/buwal/de/fachgebiete/wald/naturgefahren/index.html
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Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning

1. Hazard indicator map 2. Hazard map 3. Distinction between protection objects

Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005
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Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 1. Hazard indicator map
Preliminary overview on hazards Based on modeling Proved with event-cadastre
Every gravitational mass movement is recorded in national (online) database (StorMe) Every protective structure is recorded in national (online) database (ProtectMe)

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May have spatial inaccuracies (extend of events) Usually on canton level W/o quantitative or qualitative zoning of hazard Basis for spatial planning Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Basis for hazard maps Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005

Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 2. Hazard map (1/4)
Detailed information about hazard in five categories
Red: serious hazard Blue: medium hazard Yellow: low hazard Yellow-white striped: rest hazard White: no or negligible hazard
Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005
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Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 2. Hazard map (2/4)
Strong

Intensity

Low

Medium

High30

Medium100

Low300

Very Low

Probability
Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005

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Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 2. Hazard map (3/4)
Detailed information about hazard in five categories Basis for planning of land use Resultant map is accompanied with technical report:
Reasons Development Spatial extent Intensity and probability

Results must be communicated to population

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Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005

Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: Hazard map vs. HZ indicator map
Hazard indicator map Content Hazard yes/no Type of hazard Basis for spatial planning Identification of conflicts Basis for planning permissions Prioritisation Hazard map Exact localisation of hazard Type of hazard 5 Zones Identification of hazard zones in land use planning Basis for building regulations Development of protection measures Emergency planning High; detailed overview; accuracy on parcel level 1:2.000-10.000 Region/Community Periodically After change of hazard situation Map and technical report

Use

Level of detail Scale Perimeter Verification Products

Low; rough overview 1: 10.000-50.000 Canton Periodically Map and technical report

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Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005

Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 3. Distinction between protection objects
If it is not possible to meet all goals:
Consideration of economical, social and ecological aspects Beside spatial utilization also consideration of type of hazard
Intensity Early warning possibility
Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005

Categories of objects to be protected

Urban area Industry and trade Infrastructure Special Objects (School, Hospital,..)

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Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 3. Distinction between protection objects

LAWA, wy

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Three main tools for risk identification, evaluation and planning: 3. Distinction between protection objects

Total protection No intensity acceptable = 0 Protection against medium to high intensities Low intensity acceptable = 1 Protection against high intensities medium intensity acceptable = 2 No protection High intensity acceptable = 3

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Bundesamt fr Raumordnung Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, 2005

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stages 1, 2, 3 are self-contained procedures of risk analysis for gravitational natural hazards May be applied according to the analytical depth required May be combined to tackle problems in a purposeful and efficient way

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BUWAL, 1999

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Situation in St. Niklaus:
Residents are used to natural hazards Especially during winter the area is often cut off Mass movements occur frequently in spring Evacuations are carried out often Emergency services are prepared

Google Earth
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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 1 (1/5):
A procedure for the assessment of natural hazards based on protection deficit The objective:
Checking of defined protection objectives in object categories, determination of protection deficits and identification of conflict areas

The results:
May be used to assign priorities to the hazard areas and enable them to be included in spatial and emergency planning, as well as in planning measures
BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 1 (2/5): General approach

Different scenarios

Semi-quantitative risk in object categories

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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 1 (3/5): Case study settlement Zum Stg

Intensity map of different scenarios for different hazards (Avalanche, Mud flow, Flood)
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BUWAL, 1999

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 1 (4/5): Case study settlement Zum Stg
Intersection of intensity maps and object categories

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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 1 (5/5): Case study settlement Zum Stg

Protection deficit map BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 2 (1/5):
A procedure for the quantitative analysis of natural hazards in area, linear or point spatial elements. Stage 2 is based on general assumptions. The objective:
Determination of quantitative object and collective risks based on data for object types, quoted in relation to persons and material assets

The results may be applied:

To establish the need for action with regard to protection measures To asses the cost effectiveness of protection measures
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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 2 (2/5):
A procedure for the quantitative analysis of natural hazards in area, linear or point spatial elements. Stage 2 is based on general assumptions. For large-area risk analysis the results may be applied for:
Insurance companies For emergency planning

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BUWAL, 1999

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 2 (3/5): General approach

Quantitative risk for object types

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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 2 (4/5): Case study settlement Zum Stg

Intersection of intensity maps with object types BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 2 (5/5): Case study settlement Zum Stg
Risk map: monetary risk to objects per year and area

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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 3 (1/3):
A procedure for the quantitative analysis of natural hazards for individual objects and is based on investigations specific to the object The objective:
Quantitative objects risk based on data for individual objects with reference to persons and material assets; individual fatality risk

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BUWAL, 1999

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 3 (2/3):
The results may be used to asses the need for action with regard to object specific protection measures to assess the cost effectiveness of object specific protection measures for insurance purposes for emergency planning to give more detail on collective risk as defined in stage 2 as a basis for cost benefit and cost effectiveness analysis

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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 3 (3/3): General approach

Quantitative risk for individual objects

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BUWAL, 1999

A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 3 (3/3): Case study special objects: Railway

Protection deficit map: Train station at risk of two avalanches

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BUWAL, 1999

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A three step risk analysis for gravitational NH - Example from St. Niklaus, Switzerland Stage 3 (3/3): Case study special objects: Railway
Riskmatrix: Risk of death per year for two avalanches and for different sections

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BUWAL, 1999

Summary
Geomorphic spatial analysis result in susceptibility - and run-out maps Contribute to hazard zonation (Freq. / Magnitude) Extending HAZARD maps to RISK maps is important Land use planning: Need of MULTI-hazard and risk information Risk is much more than PROBABILITY For RISK analysis, socio-economic data are required Precaution with spatial and temporal resolutions!! Remote Sensing data are of high interest for analysis Provide not only spatial analysis, but also temporal information HOWEVER, time periods dependent on flights NOT on the phenomena! High resolution LIDAR data are highly promising!!

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Measures for prevention and mitigation - direct

Slides

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Measures for prevention and mitigation - direct

Debris flow

Debris flow-retention basin Harvey Creek, Kanada (Evans 1999)

Stopbanks against floods and debris flows Vinschgau, Italy

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Concrete channels for debris flows- Kasastan (Popov 1999) (A) Bolshaya Alma-A tinka river, Alma-Ata (B) Vesnovka River

Debrios flow-protection measures - Kasastan (Popov 1999) (A) Open metall structures (B) Concrete damm (C) Debris flow-Net

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Measures for prevention and mitigation - direct

Rock fall

Rock fall protection forest, Iceland

Rock fall protection Rock anchoring

Geobrugg

Fausto Guzzetti

Rock fall tests (Company Geobrugg))

Rock fall meausrement, Italy

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Measures for prevention and mitigation - indirect

Warnings

Lassen Volcanic NP Warning sign at Mount Lassen, USA

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Warning sign in Welington, New Zealand

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Measures for prevention and mitigation - indirect

Hazard zonation/land use planning

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Measures for prevention and mitigation - indirect

Communication/Education

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BUWAL, 1999

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Rest risk

Failure of protection measure, Italy

Failure of geotechnical measure Mimikawa River, Kyushu Island, Japan 31.05.1990 30s (Suwa)

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Re-settlement

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Approaches to slope stability problems (1/2)

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Approaches to slope stability problems (2/2)

Schuster & Turner, 1996

Schuster & Turner, 1996

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Overall conclusions
Differentiate: local, object based analysis - spatial analysis
Be aware of the differences Inventory / Susceptibility / Hazard / Risk

Risk requires numerous other data!! Chose method dependent on

Purpose / Aim Data sets Ressources

Never forget
ANY calulation is an approximation only (heuristic, deterministic, physically-based, numerical) Uncertainty needs to be addressed Residual risk can never be avoided, however, limited NEVER stop questioning what you are doing

Structural solution <=> / + Spatial planning?!?!

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Scale transfer through morphometrical conditions?

Continents Heuristic & statistical analysis

upscaling

Space- / time scale

downscaling

Nations, Regions Statistical & process-based models

upscaling

downscaling Catchments, Object Numerical models

Complexity of models
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Economic and insured damages

absolut values and long-term trends

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Mnchener Rck (2004): Topics Geo Jahresrckblick Naturkatastrophen 2004. Edition Wissen. (http://www.munichre.com/)

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Natural disasters are only known by humans, if they survive. Natural disasters are unknown by nature.
Max Frisch (1979): Der Mensch erscheint im Holozn

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..... consequence of behaviour

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Thanks for your attention & interest

thomas.glade@uni-bonn.de
http://www.giub.uni-bonn.de/thomas

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Bldudalur, Island

References
Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Fallbeispiele und Daten. In: UmweltMaterialien Nr. 107/II Naturgefahren. Bern, 129 pp. Volkswirtschaftsdirektion Amt fr Wald, Bau-, Verkehrs- und Energiedirektion Tiefbauamt, Justiz-, Gemeinde- und Kirchendirektion Amt fr Gemeinden und Raumordnung 1999: Achtung, Naturgefahr! Verantwortung des Kantons und der Gemeinden im Umgang mit Naturgefahren. Bern, 29 pp. Bundesamt fr Raumordnung, Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie, Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft 2005: Raumplanung und Naturgefahre. Bern, 50 pp. Landwirtschaft und Wald wy: Naturgefahren im Kanton Luzern ein neuer Umgang mit dem Risiko. 8 pp.

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Web references
Press release of the EU committee of regions: http://www.cor.eu.int/de/press/press_05_10114.html Bundesamt fr Umwelt: http://www.umweltschweiz.ch/buwal/de/fachgebiete/wald/naturgefahren/index.html

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