2008
11 What we do
12 Complexity
18 Innovation
24 Guiding policymakers
30 Global issues, local partnerships
40 Look ahead to 2009
For a long time many assumed that ecological systems he financial crisis is closely inter- governance and practice. And it requires
change gradually, and also that sustainable develop- twined with our exploitation of the us to recognise that environmental issues
planet’s natural capital. Financial are, in fact, inseparable from questions of
ment could be achieved through steady, incremental
mechanisms were created to allow development.
progress. However, recent evidence points to the excessive consumption. Sub-prime loans
contrary – that social and ecological systems are and sophisticated financial castles in the air this is at the heart of the SEI mandate:
characterised by long phases of minor change followed propelled the economy to new insupportable to provide integrated, policy-relevant insights
heights. Wealth today was created at the and solutions for the social-ecological chal-
by sudden, non-linear upheavals. We saw this play out
expense of tomorrow, and we have now lenges that face humanity and, by doing so,
in the financial crisis that hit the world in 2008. A long received the bill for this in the form of an support transitions toward sustainable deve-
period of unsustainable and cumulative financial imminent global economic recession. And lopment. As an independent international
behaviour eroded resilience to the point where a there is another bill in the post: the planet will research organisation, our work – the efforts
demand payment for our unsustainable use of of 180 staff in seven research centres around
small trigger – the collapse of a couple of banks –
ecosystem functions and services, and we are the world – is devoted to turning this mandate
pushed the whole financial sector over a dramatic already seeing indications of the costs. The into tangible achievements through research,
threshold. abrupt – and unexpected – collapse of the capacity building, communication, and by
Arctic summer ice in 2007 and 2008 is ana- bridging science and policy.
logous to the tipping point that led to the SEI’s credibility relies on the quality of its
financial crisis, and is at least as alarming and research and its engagement on the ground
costly for humanity in the long run. The sad in real-world issues. This work gives SEI a
fact is that we are taking out sub-prime loans coherent and distinctive profile – one that
from the Planet, and this cannot last forever. builds on the vision of SEI’s founding director
There is one fundamental difference between Gordon Goodman, who sadly passed away
the Arctic and Wall Street, though: it doesn’t in 2008. Gordon not only successfully estab-
matter how much money we throw at the lished SEI as an internationally recognised
Arctic, we still don’t know how to refreeze it. research organisation, he was also deeply
The challenge we face is to prevent and involved in setting up the Intergovernmental
solve these large scale non-linear changes, Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, he
and this requires a deep understanding of pioneered the crucial understanding that
how complex social and environmental environment and development issues are
systems interact from local to global levels. tightly intertwined, particularly for poor com-
Furthermore, it requires the ability to inno- munities in the world. Gordon’s influence cer-
vate and create new approaches to business, tainly lives on within SEI, and we are now
or don goodman, who died in lems of the Environment (SCOPE) assembled Gordon appreciated the complexity of the
May, 2008 at the age of 82, although in its book The Greenhouse Effect, Climate interdependent relationships involved with
Director of the Stockholm Environ- Change and Ecosystems, Gordon appreciated natural and man-made systems, within socie-
ment Institute for less than two years, that some ongoing, concerted, multi-discip- ties, institutions and communities. To deal
is still for many the essential embodiment linary effort had to be organised. Effective with such systems one needed the input of a
of the Institute. This is not due only to the policies needed to be agreed to address the variety of actors at local, national, regional and
innovative ideas he promoted and the major development and environmental issues global levels. These, Gordon knew, had to be
Institute’s thrust and direction, for which he of climate change on a global scale. Working knowledgeable and perceptive, appreciating
laid the foundation, but also to the working with the Advisory Group on Greenhouse the depth of knowledge against which action
approach he pioneered and established. To Gases (AGGG) he organised two seminal was planned. Above all they needed to be
engage with SEI’s mission statement is to be meetings, one in Bellagio and the other in open-minded and innovative to work with
back with Gordon, planning and pushing Villach, and from these evolved further docu- Gordon. They needed to appreciate the
forward work on an important development mentation of the scientific basis of climate complexities that ranged across natural and
or environment issue. Long before ‘evidence change phenomena, the range of responses applied science, social and political science,
based’ policy formulation and decision and effects by natural and man-managed and economics. The focus often had to be
making became the fashion, for Gordon, ecosystems and, thirdly, the socio-economic local but with a realistic appreciation of the
engagement with an issue, the collection of context within which all of this would play global context. All of this needed to be brought
relevant data followed by analysis, assess- out. The structure of this approach is easily to bear on the task of policy formulation,
ment and investigation, and then a period of recognisable in the present Intergovern- adoption, implementation and monitoring –
synthesis of all relevant facets was the natural mental Panel on Climate Change, which still the mission of the Institute today
way to approach a problem. For him policy eventually eclipsed the work of the AGGG. This annual report displays the truth that
was never primarily determined in the light Of course, these accomplishments were policymaking, global and local partnerships,
of political expediency. not achieved single-handed. Gordon was complexity and innovation are still the hall-
A notable example of Gordon’s approach able to interest, motivate and weld into a marks of the Stockholm Environment Institute
was his engagement with the climate change single, focused group a whole range of as it seeks to contribute to equitable develop-
issue, something for which he never received experts, visionaries and experienced practi- ment and environmental health and sustain-
adequate recognition. Early on, after absorb- tioners. Actually, they ended up wanting to ability across the world.
ing the accumulating evidence that, for work with him! Some even felt slighted if they
example, the Scientific Committee on Prob- had not been invited to do so. M.J. Chadwick
From SEI’s innovative events at the UN For the European Parliament SEI published
climate change negotiations in Poznań reports on climate adaptation and biofuels,
(COP 14) to its contribution at the and with partners in Norway we are running
Tällberg Forum, in 2008 we have con- a project to enable the energy industry and
tinued to shape the agenda on environ- policymakers to make more sustainable Risk,
ment and development at conferences investment decisions. Atmospheric
Livelihoods &
Environment
and policy forums throughout the world. k page 25 Vulnerability
As our research base continues to grow,
our work on communications and pub- The Greenhouse Development Rights frame-
lishing is helping it to find an even wider work (GDRs) provides tools to calculate a
audience. Here are a few highlights of climate change agreement that has sustaina-
our work in 2008. ble development in its DNA. Since its launch
at the Bali climate summit the GDRs approach
SEI’s China specialists have been working has been championed by development orga- Policy & Future
with the Stern Review and the Chinese Eco- nisations such as Oxfam, and governments in Institutions Sustainability
nomists 50 Forum to report on the economics the developed world and the G77.
of climate change in China. The report will be k page 29
launched in early 2009. PROGRAMMES AND OFFICES
Our people work from seven locations and project teams
k page 14 The OECD identified the weADAPT platform generally span these offices.
as one of the three best web resources for
Our work on the links between ground level knowledge sharing on adaptation. With the
ozone, climate and food production revealed addition of the Adaptation Layer the platform
SEI US SEI Asia
that ground level ozone could pose a greater is now even better placed to support develop-
threat to food security in Southeast Asia than ment practitioners and decision makers.
the changing climate. This research was k page 31
published in a Royal Society report.
k page 15 Our research programme on ecological sani-
tation (EcoSanRes) has been exploring and
Our Future Sustainability programme has delivering sustainable sanitation in Africa and
further developed our software tool (REAP) Asia for the past six years. In 2008 the group SEI
SEI York Stockholm SEI Tallinn
that tracks the ecological footprint of the UK published an analysis of progress towards the
economy by industrial sector, region and socio- Millennium Development Goal for sanitation.
economic group. Twenty UK local authorities k page 34
are using this software in their policy processes,
and more than two-thirds of all local authori-
ties use the footprint data that REAP provides.
k page 20
SEI Oxford SEI Africa
SEI’s new base in Africa at the University of Dar es Salaam, The SEED programme As well as changing lives on the ground,
Tanzania, will provide targeted knowledge to decision makers across – growing access to modern energy SEED also works with governments to
The SEED programme (Strengthening support policy processes in the East African
the continent to strengthen institutions and build capacity. Energy-Environment-Development Processes) Community (EAC) and to help reach a
supports energy policies and practices that common energy access strategy.
expand access to modern energy services, and
fric a is facing many environmen- Dialogue the pragmatic use of bio-energy resources for
tal and developmental challenges. A regional presence enables a continuous sustainable development. The Sida-funded
Sustainable development can only dialogue on sustainable development policy programme will now move to SEI Africa.
be achieved by sound manage- with public and private clients active in Africa. Because of SEED’s Africa focus, this move
ment of environmental resources and improve- We will be able to respond more effectively to will bring greater credibility to the research
ments to infrastructure. To meet these challen- demands for policy analysis, develop new and ensure close partnership with regional
ges, it is essential to strengthen institutional approaches and methodologies in develop- stakeholders.
frameworks and enable public and private ment cooperation and guide the private A shift to cleaner fuels and technologies for
actors to organise more effectively. sector to make ecologically and socially basic energy needs is essential to meet the
With the founding of SEI Africa, we can responsible investments. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
help to make substantial contributions to this Today, around 2.4 billion people rely on trad-
goal. The African base also confirms SEI’s Key issues – climate and bioresources itional biomass – such as wood, charcoal or IN BRIEF
long-term strategy to integrate more directly At the outset, SEI Africa will focus on two pri- dung – to meet their basic energy needs. In ‘Any policy on the environment is a policy
with local partners. Over the coming three ority areas: bioresources and climate issues. sub-Saharan Africa alone, where traditional only on the basis of effective forms of
years, SEI plans to expand across Africa and Taking a strategic approach, SEI Africa will biomass supplies more than 70% of the international cooperation which take into
operate as a network from three main locations, analyse key environmental and develop- region’s energy mix, approximately 500,000 account both ecological relationships on
coordinated from the office in Tanzania. mental drivers and promote innovative inter- people per year die from diseases caused by regional and global scales, and the inter-
disciplinary research. exposure to indoor air pollution. Traditional dependence of the world economy. […]
Demand-driven research biomass use also contributes to climate Since SEI initiates, carries out and dis-
A physical presence in Africa helps us to focus Bridging science and policy change and environmental degradation. seminates research in the environmental
on research and analysis that is relevant to The emerging SEI Africa network will engage A key focus of the programme is household field, the physical presence of SEI in
and in demand from decision makers in the in and promote links between science and energy access. In July 2008, SEI worked with Africa, particularly in Tanzania is of
region. SEI Africa will help to build capacity policy to support regional decision making. the Gaia Association, an Ethiopian NGO, paramount importance.’
over the long-term, both with partners in By doing this, SEI will help tackle many of the to assess an ethanol stove programme in (Dr. Batilda Salha Burian, Minister of
Africa as well as within SEI. complex environmental and developmental Addis Ababa. It is anticipated that the model State for Environment, United Republic
concerns facing Africa. developed in Ethiopia will be applied in other Of Tanzania)
sub-Saharan African countries in 2009.
www.gapforum.org
Pollution Forum in Stockholm, researchers of GHGs in the atmosphere.
presented evidence that suggests that there Modelling policy • SEI is also researching carbon sequest-
are sufficient greenhouse gases (GHGs) To support the development of integrated ration in soils (see page 21) and the The Parliament in London by Claude Monet
(1904). Monet painted several views of London
already in the atmosphere to warm the international air pollution and climate change influence of ozone and climate change showing the sun struggling to shine through the
planet by over 2˚C. However, air pollution, policies, SEI and its partners are using our on crops (see page 15). city’s polluted air.
system to global attention. China overtook political and economic benefits, as well
MKPIX.NET
the USA to become the world’s largest as increase global security. Moreover, the
greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter in 2007, and transition to a global low carbon economy
the country already faces the impacts of a will depend on sharing out the responsibility
changing climate, such as the drought in for cutting carbon emissions (see page 29).
northern China. This combination of factors
has led Chinese leaders to consider seriously Cooperation on climate mitigation
how the country could achieve a low carbon At its mid-point, three themes are emerging
economy. As the eyes of the developed and from the research: fair emission and mitiga-
www.sei.se/programmes/china-cluster
developing worlds focus on China, SEI tion targets, policy and institutional change
researchers are discovering what a low to achieve co-benefits, and sharing the IN BRIEF
carbon China would look like. global responsibilities through international ‘A large nation like China (20% of man-
cooperation. The findings demonstrate the kind) should have high standards for the
Searching for answers importance of macroeconomic and trade global public good, no matter whether
For China the key questions are how and at policies as drivers of climate mitigation. others do their part or not… We will look
what pace a low carbon economy supports The project has brought about informal at policy and institutional issues, for
economic and social development. And dialogue between mainstream and environ- example energy and resource pricing
MKPIX.NET
researchers and policymakers are curious to mental economists, environmental experts, systems, and how to eliminate price
know what types of international cooperation scientists and policymakers on the econo- distortions which cause high emissions.’
Shopping mall – Dalian, China. Economic best support the emergence of a low carbon mics of climate change. In the longer term (Economist Dr Fan Gang of the Chinese
development comes with a high price tag. economy and whether China could take a we hope to establish a global platform for Economists 50 Forum)
www.sei.se/apcen www.sei.se/rapidc
And all projections show that O3 emissions As for climate change, dealing with O3 requires • Global economic losses in crop produc-
are increasing rapidly in Asia. mitigation and adaptation policies. The tion due to O3 are estimated to be in the
Comparing crop yield losses now with transboundary nature of O3 pollution requi- range of USD 14 to 26 billion with about
those forecast to occur by the end of this res international efforts to effectively reduce 40% of this damage occurring in China
century due to climate change (up to 30%) emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile and India.
has revealed that O3 may be a more imme- organic compounds and hence O3 impacts • There are substantial side benefits from
diate threat to agricultural productivity than on agricultural productivity. Such emission reducing O3 as ground level ozone is
climate change in South Asia. It is also likely reductions would have co-benefits for climate an important greenhouse gas and can
that the CO2 fertilisation effect, that was change and human health. However, evi- have adverse effects on human health.
hoped might partly offset reductions in dence shows that recently bred cultivars • SEI was a main contributor to the Royal
A farmer planting rice in the Philippines. O3
agro-ecosystem productivity, may well be of some important crops are actually more Society report Ground Level O3 in the could be a bigger threat to agriculture in South
limited by the impacts of O3. sensitive to O3. We are strengthening links 21st Century. Asia than climate change.
Claims and counterclaims about bioenergy have dogged the issue in 2008. Some hail it
as an ecological panacea while others insist it is bad medicine. SEI works towards a better
understanding of its benefits and drawbacks, with an emphasis on the developing world.
and forcibly displace rural populations. Why magnifies the interdependence of the social, of SEI Africa (see page 10).
is it that an industry that previously attracted economic, and ecological processes that are At the same time, policies in Asia, Europe
so little attention is suddenly having so many shaping it. and elsewhere can have major impacts
different impacts? globally and deserve attention. For example,
A balanced approach EU energy policy will affect developing
Fuel for thought We look at bioenergy in the round, placing countries that aspire to build biofuel indus-
The short answer is that biofuels can have all international policy-oriented partnerships at tries and export to the EU (see page 25).
these impacts and more. The transition away the centre of our work. The breadth and depth Bioenergy is no silver bullet, but it can bring
from the fossil economy in the coming century of these partnerships leads to innovative real benefits. The key is to take the right
will create many different pressures and the ways of evaluating problems and implemen- steps forward alongside our partners in
LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY
large scale can have undesirable impacts. In 2008 SEI led a study of the interactions
But it is the type of crop and how it is produ- between food, feed and fuels in the develop-
ced and used that determines the outcome, ing world, and published research on the
and bioenergy can have substantial eco- role of sugarcane as a renewable resource,
nomic and environmental benefits. and a report on biofuels for the European IN BRIEF
The fossil fuels that the world has burned Parliament. Our predecessor – The Beijer Institute –
Developing the next generation of biofuels.
in just one hundred years took millions of SEI is also helping to speed the transition got its start over thirty years ago analysing
www.carensa.net
years to create, and it is no surprise that away from the use of traditional biomass to the transition away from fossil fuels and
Sorghum (pictured right) is not only a vital
cereal crop in arid regions of the world, it can
land resources will come under strain when cleaner forms of energy in the developing the policies and institutions that were
also be used to make ethanol for fuel. we are forced to use resources sustainably world (see page 10). shaping that transition.
Billion tonnes CO 2
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currently available technologies. This fact We used our LEAP software tool to explore
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places limits on conventional ways of fore- the DCRS and examine the implications of a DCRS Baseline
casting, which tend to say that if a target can- 56% cut in China’s emissions by 2050 against
not be achieved using available technology, 2006 levels. We use a baseline scenario that
the target must be revised. takes in historical trends in China’s emissions
SEI’s approach turns this convention on its and projects forward to 2050. Up to 2030
head: we first map out reduction targets and this baseline closely matches trends published
work backwards to identify the gaps in tech- in the 2008 International Energy Agency IN BRIEF
nology that must be bridged if the target is to World Energy Outlook. In contrast, the To achieve deep emissions cuts in China,
be achieved. We believe that this will enable DCRS predicts cuts of 85% up to 2050 our scenario looks at the potential to:
policymakers to be pro-active and bridge compared with the baseline. • make big improvements in energy
SUPER.HEAVY
technology gaps by targeting funds for efficiency
research and development. Ambitious, yet realistic • shift to electricity, heat and (where
This work is part of a broader project on The next stage of the work is to consult with possible) low carbon fuels
the economics of climate change in China, our partners in China on whether our draft • increase public transport and introduce
and also draws on SEI’s Greenhouse Deve- assumptions are both plausible and desirable. high efficiency freight transport
lopment Rights framework (see page 29). Their feedback will be used to design a • retire inefficient coal fired power
second, improved version of the scenario. stations
What’s the scenario? This will provide more refined information on • replace ‘dirty’ coal with efficient coal
www.energycommunity.org
Our ‘deep carbon reduction scenario’ (DCRS) the measures that are needed to put China with carbon capture and storage (CCS)
begins with the assumption that dramatic on an ambitious but realistic path to deep and renewable energy
cuts are attainable without affecting demo- cuts in GHG emissions. • introduce large scale combined heat
graphic and macroeconomic indicators. The and power and redesign industry to use
scenario examines the potential for energy process heat efficiently, and
The Shanghai maglev train. To help make deep
efficiency and fuel switching across all major • dematerialise the economy to some and rapid cuts in emissions, China needs more
sectors of the economy, including industry, extent (i.e. do more with less). investment in public transport infrastructure.
Consumption counts
between 1992 and 2004 UK territorial cancelled out by increased emissions in the drivers of emissions and shows the global
emissions decreased by 12% compared with other countries caused by UK consumption costs of consumption that must be factored
1990 levels. However, in the same period the of imported goods and services. Trade data in to the climate negotiations. Counting
global climate impacts from UK consumption indicates that these emissions are coming consumer emissions will ultimately assist in
rose continuously. When emissions from from newly emerging economies such as the design of an international climate regime
’The scientists should be congratulated… [the consumption are included in the calculations China, India and Russia that reduces carbon leakage and is acceptable
report] will help us to get a global agreement’. the figure actually increases by 18%. to developing countries.
Phil Woolas (UK Environment Minister),
1 August 2008, speaking on the BBC Radio 4 These results are the product of a ground- Practical solutions A comparison of carbon footprints shows
Today Programme. breaking new modelling approach, pioneered SEI’s Resources and Energy Analysis Pro- that developed countries rely on worldwide
by SEI, called multi-region input-output gramme (REAP) provides decision makers inequalities in consumption when communi-
analysis. The research lifts the veil on the with the tools to identify and evaluate the cating the challenge of, and calculating
impacts of all the goods and services con- changes necessary in production systems responsibility for, climate change. After all,
CO2 emissions in the UK
sumed by British households wherever they and consumption patterns to move to a more if everyone consumed like the average UK
1050 may have been produced. Unlike standard sustainable society. person, dangerous climate change would
1000 emissions analyses it includes emissions In each of the nine English regions, and be unavoidable.
950 from countries exporting to the UK. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, emis-
900 sions from consumption have mirrored UK
Where did all the emissions get to? trends for the last 12 years. We’ve seen that
Mt CO 2e
850
800 Our research traces the GHG emissions of promoting a low carbon model requires a IN BRIEF
www.resource-accounting.org.uk
750 all goods and services through the global greater focus on the way people live as well as • 60% of the growth in the carbon foot-
700 supply chain and assigns them to the country the way business operates. Steps are already print of UK households is driven by
650 where they’re finally consumed. In the UK, being taken to support this by building zero increased travel demands.
600
the emissions embedded in imports went carbon homes. More needs to be done to • Meat and dairy products make up more
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up from 35% of UK emissions in 1992 to 67% improve existing homes and transport than 50% of the GHG emissions associ-
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Domestic emissions
including those from
National emissions submitted
to UNFCCC excluding
in 2004, while those embedded in exports infrastructure. ated with food consumption in the UK.
imported goods
consumed in the UK
international aviation and
shipping
increased from 31 to 45% of emissions over • 90% of houses in the Leeds city region
Domestic emissions UK Kyoto emissions the same period. This suggests that the Policy impact need to increase their energy efficiency
including exports, agreement target
aviation and shipping reduction in the UK’s own carbon dioxide The research SEI has carried out during in order for the UK government to meet
emissions has been more than 2008 provides a deeper understanding of its emission targets.
We believe that soil science deserves serious of the soil breathe out carbon and how they
Shoot Atmosphere /Climate
attention. respond in different ways to environmental
factors. Our new soil carbon models repre- CO2
Assimilation/ Photosynthesis
Respiration / Decomposition
Vital work sent these major components that affect the IN BRIEF C Autotrophic Heterotrophic
respiration respiration
SEI is doing the vital work of creating models flow of carbon dioxide and show how these A healthy level of carbon in soils is central
Root derived CO 2 Soil derived CO 2
to accurately predict the effects of climate components respond in different ways to to livelihoods and wellbeing. Not only can
change on soil carbon cycling. Our research environmental change. soil help mitigate climate change, it also: C
Flux Flux Flux
provides a better understanding of plant-soil SEI is investigating the symbioses between • reduces erosion
www.sei.se/forests
carbon allocation, how fast decomposition root systems and mycorrhizal fungi – well • stores nutrients and soil water
ECM fungi Roots Soil microcobes
occurs, and which organisms are key to this known for their edible boletes but also vital • boosts agricultural productivity
Root Soil
process. for plant growth and survival. We are now • keeps waterways clean, and
working with the English Forestry Commission • sustains biodiversity.
Southeast Asia. As fires raged through the region releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide,
scientists began to ask themselves whether climate variability was the only factor at work.
for more than 30 years, swathes of South- Whether it’s climate change, the extinc- and the importance of land-use patterns for
east Asia’s forests have been cut down to tion of species or ocean acidity, scientific albedo effects, biodiversity and carbon
make way for palm oil plantations. Researchers evidence demonstrates that human pres- sequestration (see page 21). Greater aware-
recognise that this new pattern of land-use sures are significant – perhaps the most ness of such issues will mean more effective
distorts natural climate variability; for significant – influences on planetary systems. environmental policy.
example, Monsoon rains that would normally Knowing where the boundaries lie is neces- Though simple to articulate, the societal
extinguish fires before they get out of control sary so we do not cross tipping points and and economic transformations required to
are arriving later and later. After the 1998 put current and future generations at risk. meet these interconnected problems are
SEI is working to identify the boundaries that blazes, researchers concluded that the Rather than looking at one issue in isola- profound in nature and difficult to imple-
we must live within if we are to safeguard
compound effects of local decisions on tion, such as climate change, we analyse the ment. We need to change the way we pro-
humanity and the global environment.
regional weather patterns led to forest fires interactions and feedback loops between duce energy, goods and food, and how we
and emissions of carbon dioxide that were systems. In the case of climate change, the transport ourselves and our commodities.
globally significant. ultimate impact of changing temperatures These changes will require innovation from
What happened in Southeast Asia is a and sea levels on human societies and eco- all corners of the globe and from all parts of
microcosm of the problems facing the planet. systems will also depend on atmospheric society.
Seemingly minor changes can escalate to pollution, freshwater consumption, land use
major impacts due to the complex, non-linear and levels of biodiversity. As the Southeast
interactions of humans with nature. Scientists Asian experience shows, planetary bounda-
term these sudden and unexpected changes ries are closely interdependent – if one is
‘tipping points’. tipped, others may follow. Knowing where
the boundaries lie provides a framework for IN BRIEF
www.stockholmresilience.org
Knowing our limits technological development and effective • The project has developed a preliminary
In June 2008 SEI, the Stockholm Resilience governance strategies. set of nine Planetary Boundaries, which
Centre and the Tällberg Foundation gather- will be described in a report in 2009.
ed 20 of the world’s leading Earth system The message and the means • Among the 20 scientists that launched
scientists to identify planetary boundaries – Vital new knowledge on planetary systems the project were Jim Hansen from
limits that we must live within to safeguard must also be communicated to policymakers. NASA, Bob Corell from the American
human well-being and the global environ- We know much more about how ocean Meterological Society and Diana
ment. acidification interacts with global warming, Liverman from Oxford University.
be met and the future shape of EU climate particularly in relation to renewable energy. tives are indispensable.
and energy policy.
SEI, together with the Fridtjof Nansen Insti- Shifting sands
tute and leading players in the Nordic energy Expert analysis can help to predict surprising
Historical development of electricity generation
sector, has launched the CANES project to outcomes. Throughout the 2000s, the Euro- from ‘new’ renewable electricity in the European
help industry and policymakers respond to pean Commission has championed the label- Union
(EU-27) from 1990–2006
political uncertainty with greater assurance. ling of electricity to verify its source (the
The aim is to understand how EU climate and Guarantee of Origin system) – as an instru- 180
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on its pledge to be a global leader? How will examine what such developments mean for by the Norwegian Research Council and
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www.fni.no/CANES/
this affect EU policy? What markets and Nordic energy producers, infrastructure co-funded by Swedish and Norwegian Biogas Photovoltaics
investment opportunities will emerge? providers and energy-intensive users. bodies, including: Vattenfall, Statkraft, Solid biomass Wind on-shore
Biowaste Wind off-shore
These questions are high on the energy Finally, we ask how these insights can help to Statnett, Norwegian Electricity Industry
Geothermal electricity
industry’s strategic agenda, and affect improve energy forecasting and, as a result, Association, Federation of Norwegian
heavy industrial users and infrastructure decision making. Industries, and Svenska Kraftnät.
Climate change is now upon us, and the world must adapt to its impacts.
But disputes over how to pay for adaptation could scupper a future climate deal.
SEI is working to solve the political impasse.
Adaptation added up
people, the economy and ecosystems finance as the key ways to enable developing As well as influencing the politics of adap-
are experiencing the first impacts of climate countries to deal with climate change. tation SEI is fulfilling the growing demand for
change. In 2007 the Intergovernmental The UN, Oxfam and the World Bank differ policy analysis. We have developed concep-
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which over how much money is needed to help tual groundwork for emerging research and
shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, developing countries do this: estimates policy on ‘mainstreaming’ (combining adap-
stated that ‘Warming of the climate system is range from USD 10 billion to more than tation into development efforts), which is
unequivocal’. According to the IPCC, even USD 100 billion per year. There are also dis- essential to effectively compare mainstream-
the most stringent mitigation efforts to mini- putes over where this money will come from ing approaches and to evaluate policy experi-
mise emissions will not avoid further impacts and how it will be managed. The politics of ences. The first results are forthcoming in a
of climate change in the next few decades. adaptation are a potential pitfall for a climate- book chapter and a journal article.
policy deal in Copenhagen in December
Prevention and cure 2009. The long view
This means that cure is as important as pre- SEI’s work on adaptation will branch out
vention. ‘Adaptation’ is the term used to Politics and theory beyond 2009. Getting an agreement in
describe all efforts to prepare for or deal with Our research makes crucial contributions to Copenhagen is vital, but we must also take
the impacts of climate change, ranging from breaking this political impasse. In 2008, our the long view: the need for adaptation fun-
individual households, communities and work on adaptation funding has helped to ding will not disappear in 2010, and SEI is
firms, to entire sectors and countries. Adap- move the negotiations forward. well placed to meet the challenges ahead.
tation reduces the damage from climate SEI prepared a briefing paper for Tony
change, but it has limits. Mitigation remains Blair’s report to the G8+5 meeting in Japan in
crucial – to rely on adaptation alone would July 2008. The paper emphasised the IN BRIEF
lead to a level of climate change that is importance of reaching agreement on adap- Adaptation is the term used to describe
unmanageable and therefore catastrophic tation funding and underlined the need for all activities aimed at preparing for or
for future generations. synergies between adaptation and develop- dealing with the consequences of climate
ment policy. An SEI white paper for the change. Such activities can be in response
Money trouble Government of Switzerland served to facili- to a wide array of impacts (like drought
The UN Bali Action Plan, agreed in late 2007, tate discussion and, hopefully, agreement on or floods) and undertaken at the level
attaches equal weight to mitigation and the operational guidelines and principles of of individual households and firms, or
adaptation. It identifies technology and the UNFCCC’s Adaptation Fund. of entire sectors and communities.
TAILSPINT
Migration from inland rural areas to the only to reduce vulnerability to hazards but We conclude that by taking account of
coast means that the delta is now home to 6.5 also to secure development and livelihoods. social and economic development in the
million people. Their livelihoods depend on replantation efforts, the results are more
rice production, fishing, livestock and aqua- The many uses of mangroves likely to be sustainable, have long-term local
culture. The delta has become crucial to the Healthy mangroves provide important buy-in, and provide multiple benefits.
food security of the region and is known as ecosytem services such as breeding grounds
the ‘rice bowl’ of Myanmar. for fish and crab species, as well as products
Since 2005, SEI has been studying how a that support local livelihoods. Their unique IN BRIEF
legacy of conflicting interests has affected root system captures sediment and prevents • Asian cities took 15 of the top 20 places
the management, governance and use of erosion. Against a cyclone like Nargis, they in an OECD report ranking the cities
coastal resources. We are investigating ways also act as a natural protective barrier by most likely to be affected by climate
to help policymakers reconcile the many dissipating the force of water driven by extremes.
demands on mangrove ecosystems and to storms, tides and winds. • The mangrove ecosystems of Southeast
integrate mangrove replantation into coastal But more than that, in areas where man- Asia are the most abundant (50,000 km2)
management plans. groves are maintained, people live further and diverse (40+ tree species) in the
inland and are naturally less vulnerable than world. They support many hundreds of
Lessons of the cyclone those living by the shore. animal species.
The importance of this research was high- Based on evidence from stakeholders at • In Thailand 50% of the mangrove forests NASA satellite shows Cyclone Nargis above
lighted by Cyclone Nargis, which struck the the three project sites, it is clear that serious have been degraded since the 1960s. Myanmar, May 2008.
Shale shift
VALDUR LAHTVEE
since 2000, the Baltic states’ rapid econo- planning tool. And by applying LEAP and an equal effort is needed to make existing
mic growth has been stoked by fossil fuels: in the EcoSenseWeb assessment model, we energy production facilities (e.g. oil shale
A ‘walking excavator’ at Narva, Estonia. The 2007, 93.6% of Estonia’s energy came from predicted potential trends in greenhouse gas combustion and gas turbines) more efficient.
Narva complex consists of the world’s two
largest oil shale-fired thermal power plants.
one source – oil shale – and just 1.2% from and sulphur dioxide emissions and calculated In 2009, the Estonian Parliament will
renewable sources. All three Baltic countries the external costs of energy production. decide which road to take. All require tough
face a similar predicament: how to continue choices, but whatever Estonia favours, the
to develop and achieve energy security Which road to take? country will make real strides on its journey
MARCUS VEGAS
while reducing carbon output and shifting Our analysis showed that the scenario for towards a clean energy future.
to renewable sources of energy. electricity production with the lowest costs,
In Estonia, between 2000 and 2007 GDP as well as the smallest overall impact on the
rose by 71% and energy consumption went environment, society and the economy,
up by 28%, the bulk of it from fossil fuels. If was an energy mix of 39% oil shale, 22%
these trends continue it is clear that Estonia wind, 30% gas and 9% heat and power
will not achieve the EU’s target to produce co-generation.
20% of its energy from renewables by 2020. However, SEI recommended that the
government should instead choose a mix of
The route to 2020 40% wind power, 40% gas, 13% oil shale and
As with all EU member states, Estonia must 7% from co-production. This scenario provi-
review its energy policy in the light of these ded the best balance between reduction of
targets. In January 2008, the Estonian carbon and sulphur dioxide emissions and
Government published a revised national socio-economic targets. The scenario would
www.seit.ee
energy development plan leading up to set Estonia on the clearest path towards the
2020. Its main objective is to ensure a conti- EU energy and environment targets. It is also
nuous, sustainable and affordable energy likely that this choice would bring benefits IN BRIEF
supply for the country. over the longer term. Oil shale produces more greenhouse
SEI carried out a strategic environmental Following this path would demand a steep gases than conventional fossil fuels.
assessment (SEA) of the plan. We developed increase in wind energy production (capacity In 2006, about 81% of CO2 emissions in
www.mkm.ee
A new windmill in Estonia. SEI recommended and refined a set of energy scenarios provided growth from 80 to 500 MW) requiring Estonia came from its energy sector,
that Estonia should produce 40% of its power by the government using our LEAP energy massive infrastructural investments, while fuelled mainly by oil shale.
from wind.
40 00
20 00
the only proven routes to develop- majority of reductions must be in the develop- The bottom line is that climate negotia-
0
ment – to water and food security, improved ing world, where most emissions now occur tions will not succeed until they address the
0
0
0
0
10 0
12 0
0
00
0
0
0
10 0
12 0
00
0
0
20
40
60
80
20
40
60
80
20
health care and education – involve expan- and where they are growing most rapidly, fundamental challenge of human develop- Population (millions)
ding access to energy services. Given the but the capacity to make reductions lies ment for the world’s poorest people. Green- Development threshold USD 20/day (USD 7 500/year)
limited access to low-carbon energy techno- mainly in the developed world. house Development Rights shows that we Capacity
logy in developing countries, this means an cannot choose between climate protection Excluded income
increase in fossil fuel use and carbon emis- Common but differentiated and human development. We shall have
www.sei.se/web-resources/greenhouse-development-rights-gdrs
sions. For the world’s poor, this pits develop- The framework proposes a legally binding, both, or we shall have neither.
ment squarely against climate protection. two-fold obligation. First, the developed
The Greenhouse Development Rights world must commit to deep reductions in
framework, created by SEI and Ecoequity, domestic emissions. The depth of these cuts
describes a climate agreement that has deve- is based on the science, on the silent fact that
lopment woven into its DNA. The frame- our climate system does not negotiate.
work faces up to the big question: what kind Second, the rich must support, through Global mitigation requirement, following the
GDRs framework
of climate regime brings global emissions finance and technology, a rapid transition to
rapidly under control, even while the develo- clean energy in the developing world, and 14
endemic poverty and support human deve- inevitable warming (see page 26). 10
sions among the rich and poor, and proposes tance and developing countries will exploit hidden emissions of Sweden’s consumers International Energy Agency Òbusiness as usualÓ
ÒNo-regretsÓ reductions
strategies to meet the challenge. Allocating fossil-based technologies to generate energy and suggests a path to reduce emissions
Reference scenario
responsibility for such rapid emission reduc- and poor communities will continue to burn to 2020 and beyond. The report harnessed Global mitigation requirement
tions among countries is the biggest challenge. the wood and charcoal that creates black SEI’s research into carbon footprinting 2ùC Emergency pathway
The fundamental problem is that the vast carbon emissions (see page 13). (see page 20) and the GDRs framework.
We must adapt
africa has always adjusted to climatic tion team take shape and set challenging ICCAS, IIED, OSS and START) contains
shifts, but the current rate of change is on a objectives. Over the past 18 months, SEI has studies, videos, projects, workshop reports
scale not seen before. Greater support for renewed its effort in Africa (see page 10), and downscaled climate data. The adaptation
adaptation must get under way now, as working closely with the University of layer is in prototype phase but turned heads
delays will only increase the costs. The more Cape Town to establish a world-leading at the UN climate change negotiations in The Sahel meets the Sahara.
we do, the more we recognise the need for knowledge resource on climate adaptation Poznań (COP 14). The aim is for as many
effective processes to support adaptation. – weADAPT.org. organisations as possible to add adaptation
The challenges are clear and solutions can information to make it simple to interact with
LEONIE JOUBERT
be found, but questions remain. What are Visualising change adaptation projects around the world, and to
the prospects for effective on-the-ground In 2008 we added the Climate Change learn from the experience of others.
reductions in vulnerability? How can we Explorer tool to the weADAPT platform.
engage across wide social scales, from individ- Climate Change Explorer enables users to
uals to government and the private sector? quickly access climate change data tailored
How do we recruit and train a global team to their region of interest. This kind of
of adaptation practitioners? ‘downscaled’ weather projection can help
people prepare and plan for coming climate
Money and know-how events. The tool has evolved from, and con-
SEI is working to build capacity and bridge tributed to, a dialogue across disciplines and
the knowledge gap on adaptation in Africa. continents on risk communication, scientific
We are represented in most adaptation uncertainty and decision-making. Climate
funding programmes, and new projects on scenarios are now available for Africa and
costing adaptation are taking off, globally Asia, and more are being processed.
and in Africa – but political obstacles block
the effective deployment of money. Our Interactive adaptation
researchers are working to address this The weADAPT Adaptation Layer uses
www.weadapt.org
bottleneck (see page 26). Google Earth technology to allow users to IN BRIEF
Building capacity begins with people, but explore adaptation projects around the The OECD recently selected weADAPT
needs sound organisations. We are working world. The Adaptation Layer, a collaboration as one of three adaptation platforms to A South African in conversation with an
alongside UNEP and have seen their adapta- of the weADAPT group (including BCAS, receive further support. SEI researcher.
Al-Suweda
n Se
Irbid
nea
rra
Tel Aviv-
Me
Zin
Jersusalem sei is part of an international project that purpose, thereby aggravating the under- rate institutions, such as ministries of water,
brings together Jordanian, Palestinian, and lying problems. As for future climate change, environment and planning.
EGYPT Israeli scientists and water managers to exa- GLOWA models show that surface and The Jordan River region is one of the
mine the bio-physical and socio-economic groundwater availability will decrease even ‘cradles of agriculture’, with experience of
aspects of climate change in the Jordan river more rapidly than precipitation. adaptation gathered over millennia. From
Elat SAUDI -
Gulf of
Al Aqabah ARABIA basin. The GLOWA Jordan River project is water harvesting to waste water reuse, SEI
Aqaba organized around the ‘green-blue water’ Focus on the small scale researchers have developed a knowledge
The Jordan River region. Along with its partners, concept, an integrated approach to the Initial findings show that large scale infra- base that spans both traditional and recent
SEI is working to build cooperation over water management of water from precipitation, structure projects may not be flexible enough adaptation options, and can be applied in
resources between Israeli, Palestinian and
Jordanian scientists.
lakes, rivers, groundwater and soil water. to adapt to the effects of climate change other drylands.
(and in fact are so energy-intensive that they By identifying options for enhanced over-
Testing scenarios make a significant contribution to climate all water productivity and cooperation over
We have used our water modelling software change). Smaller, integrated green and blue water resources, SEI helps solve the water
(WEAP) to test scenarios on global change water management options can provide a crisis, and supports conflict resolution in
and water management. SEI is using this more sustainable water supply by tapping the region.
approach to investigate alternatives to the unused potential.
planned mega-project to provide desalin- These small scale projects are also better
ated water by linking the Red Sea and the suited to the local needs of different areas
Dead Sea. and communities and thereby reduce vul-
Regional climate scenarios are used to nerability. Based on the green-blue water
simulate future water-related constraints for concept, they can also cope better with the
development and security. In some parts of uncertainties of climate change, such as
www.glowa-jordan-river.de
the basin, water is already so scarce that even heavy rainfall or dry spells. IN BRIEF
drinking water can’t always be obtained. In People have been adapting to water
other parts of the basin the effects of water Cooperation is possible scarcity and climate variability for millennia.
Our WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning scarcity are still limited to commercial The new concepts of integrating water and A blend of both old and new adaptation
system) tool promotes an integrated approach sectors such as agriculture. land management, and treating ecosystems options is needed to confront the serious
to water resources planning. WEAP is helping
to solve problems of water management in the The volatile political situation in the basin as a natural water infrastructure, have trigge- challenges that we face over water supply
Jordan River region. affects who has access to water and for what red a dialogue between traditionally sepa- in the 21st Century.
Poor sanitation and hunger have disastrous effects in the developing world.
SEI’s work on ecological sustainable sanitation links these issues and provides solutions.
Sanitation and agriculture – To show how this can be done, in 2008 we and showing that waste products are a valu-
a vital connection built China’s first urban onsite organic fertil- able (perhaps essential) resource.
The harm caused by poor sanitation is well iser plant, specialised for human manure, in
known: water-borne diseases cut short a new town in Dongsheng municipality. The
countless lives, and 700 million people eat town consists of four and five storey build-
food from crops irrigated with untreated ings, and has a nursery school and commer-
sewage. Meeting the MDG target to cial centre. Residents began moving into
increase sanitation coverage for 1.75 billion their new homes in 2006. This eco-town
people will bring many social benefits, represents the first major attempt in China –
improving lives and productivity. and the world – to build an entire town that
SEI calculations show that sub-Saharan uses on-site ecological sanitation.
Africa could become self-sufficient in fertil- To be effective and hygienic, organic
iser supply if it were to adopt productive or material, urine, faeces and greywater must
ecological sanitation practices. Some be separated at source and contained. They IN BRIEF
www.ecosanres.org
75–80% of Africa’s farmland is degraded, can then be treated and reused as fertiliser. The cost of fertiliser is decided for the
and more sustainable agricultural practices – The potential benefits are clear: for example, most part by a small group of nations.
like more efficient use of fertilisers, water one person’s yearly output of treated urine China, Morocco and the US set phosphate
The urban onsite organic fertiliser plant at our
project in China produces 1.5 tonnes of fertiliser
harvesting and recycling of nutrients from can support 300–400m2 of cropland for prices, while Canada, Belarus, Germany
a day from human manure. various organic sources, including manure each growing period. and Russia control the value of potassium.
ANARU
as benefits. SEI is working with Vietnamese partners to tackle the risks of rapidly
growing energy demand.
Future generation
like many countries in the Mekong assessment: it recommends short-term ment is now pursuing a range of projects
region and Southeast Asia, Vietnam faces an policy reform and also looks at how institu- to lock-in the SEA procedure into power-
increasing demand for power to fuel indus- tions can learn from and use environmental development planning and in other sectors
trial and human development. And the knowledge when making long-term decisions. like heavy industry and mining. Power lines in Vietnam. SEI’s long experience of
research and policy advice in the region ensures
Vietnamese Government has ambitious The model has been identified by the World
successful cooperation with our partners for
plans to generate it from fossil sources and Bank as a real step forward. joined-up planning.
hydropower. However, these can damage SEI promotes joined-up planning. In the
both the environment and the resources on past, hydropower projects have been built
which the Vietnamese people depend for with little awareness of social and environ-
their subsistence. Depleted water resources, mental costs. Alongside our partners, we
degraded agricultural land, air and water advise on how to strengthen mechanisms to
pollution and population displacement are link energy schemes to local development
just some of the potential risks. processes, like water management, agricul-
To show how these risks can be handled ture and poverty reduction.
effectively, we are piloting a strategic environ- To ensure projects are sustainable, the
mental assessment (SEA) of the national assessment also encourages the introduc-
NON-PARTIZAN
hydropower plan in the Greater Mekong tion of effective mitigation and compensa-
subregion. The SEA is tailored to the institu- tion measures before development starts.
tional context of the planning process and
will give planners the tools to integrate sus- Looking forward
tainability into strategic decision making. Despite its success, greater capacity is
SEI’s long experience of research and policy needed to fully realise the potential of the
advice in Vietnam, and our network of part- SEA as a strategic planning tool. We are work-
ners, ensure our assessments are strongly ing to fill gaps in knowledge so that social
grounded within national capabilities. and environmental issues are integrated IN BRIEF
effectively into power-sector planning. Electricity consumption in Vietnam has
A new approach Our study demonstrated the SEA’s poten- grown by about 15% per year for the last
We are working with the Vietnamese govern-
Our decision-oriented model addresses the tial for enhancing national development decade, and this rate is expected to ment to risk assess hydropower plans to safely
shortcomings of traditional methods of policy and planning in Vietnam. The Govern- continue. meet the energy needs of future generations.
Leribe A woman from Lesotho tells the story of how her life has been transformed by
Teyateyaneng climate change and the new Mohale dam. An SEI researcher on vulnerability interprets
Mokhotlong
MASERU
her predicament.
Mohale Dam
Thaba-Tseka
Mafeteng LESOTHO
Quithing
Notebook on change in Lesotho
SOUTH AFRICA
0 30 km 60 km
0 30 ml 60 ml
my name is ’M’a Letsema. I live in the researcher: Vulnerable ecosystems Basic services in our area are limited, despite
village near the Mohale Dam in Lesotho. make for vulnerable communities. the agreement to provide services that was
My village has about 200 families and is part of the deal behind the building of the
SUKAINA BHARWANI
overseen by our chief. She decides how we Some people move to towns, or to South dam. They set up new services in all the vil-
use the land surrounding the village and Africa, in search of work, while others own lages around here but some are much better
promotes social welfare and development or manage small shops, make and sell handi- than others.
as much as she can. crafts, work as drivers, teach at the primary My village, and many others, have had
The mountainous region here has a lot of school, and work in the fields. what they call gravity-fed taps installed.
rainfall, very cold winters and heavy snow- The changes in our weather patterns Some never work, others dry up and many
fall. But we have all noticed that rainfall is affect how many crops we produce, the avai- pipes burst in the winter. We have to fix them
later than it used to be and over a shorter lability of food, our health and physical out of our own pockets. Even when the taps
period. Recently there’s been less snowmelt safety. We’ve had to find ways to cope with are working, we are only allowed to collect
– very worrying as it is so good for the soil. these problems. For example, when water is water between 6am and 10am, otherwise it
Droughts also last longer than they used to. scarce we go back to using wells and collec- runs out.
researcher: Variable precipitation threa- ting surface water at local wetlands. researcher: Coping mechanism ➞
tens region. Climate stresses and extremes. researcher: Multiple impacts ➞ coping further health impacts.
Gradual change. and adaptation.
Most of us still go to the traditional healer, but
The development of the Mohale Dam, which When it gets very difficult to find food, the we also know that there are some illnesses
was built to supply water to South Africa, has government gives us aid, such as grain or that the healer just can’t help with. More and
affected us in good and bad ways. seed. But sometimes the government gets more young people are getting sick. Health
researcher: Sudden shock. Rapid the timing wrong (like when seeds arrive workers visit us once a month but this often
change. after the end of the planting season) and the isn’t enough. Some of us have set up a sup-
aid often fails to reach the people that need port group to try to help the families in the
Our main livelihoods are raising cattle, sheep it most, like the sick, disabled and elderly. village when people get sick.
and goats, growing maize and other crops, researcher: Ineffective institutional researcher: HIV/AIDS related health
Despite agreements that services such as and growing potatoes, cabbage or other support. stress.
running water would be provided when the
Mohale dam was built, they are often faulty vegetables. For everything else we rely on
or poorly maintained. what we can find locally.
ANNA TAYLOR
researcher: Macro-level ecomonic
Our life is our cattle. But the condition of trends – regional impacts felt locally.
the rangelands is getting worse and theft is
researcher’s conclusions
The multiple stresses affecting these a long-term sustainable future. Resilient Resilience thresholds
communities cannot be underestimated. local livelihoods are more likely to flourish It is vital that the climatic, social, and eco-
Vulnerability analysis must not take a if local adaptive capacity is supported by nomic thresholds of resilience are explored
sectoral, single stressor approach but institutional structures. These structures before interventions are made. Otherwise
needs to address the multiple and com- must recognise: there is a risk that interventions will exa-
plex changing stresses that are faced in • the various aspects of vulnerability cerbate existing vulnerabilities or even
many different areas. (such as declining grazing areas or lack create new ones. Where resilience analy-
Where they have the knowledge, tech- of fuel) sis is done adequately, the community’s
nology or resources to do so, people try to • the diverse groups at risk (herders, own adaptive capacity will be ‘refined’
adapt to their situation. These responses households, women, sick, elderly etc.), through the institutional support – identi-
to multiple stresses and dynamic vulner- and fied, supported and reinforced.
ability (gradual and sudden impacts at • the changes in current practice and
different scales) may not provide adequate traditional adaptation methods (such as From ‘M’a Letsema and her community
systemic resilience. the extended rotational grazing period there is resignation to delayed support
or ‘closing off’ wood sites). and limited assistance, but also hope for
Institutional support the future. As she says: ‘muso ha o tate’ –
These communities need greater institu- government rushes for no-one. But we
tional support to help them work towards hope that change will come eventually.
2009
The year of the Ox, of a new President in ● New President, new climate? The ● In the Chinese year of the ox, research ● The official opening of the SEI Africa
the White House and of climate change domestic challenges facing President Obama across SEI will look at the dilemmas posed by Centre takes place in June.
negotiations. are enormous: two wars, an economy in China’s huge demand for energy. Meanwhile, SEI will lead a study on the
And it’s our 20th anniversary too. tatters, soaring unemployment rates, and a Our China specialists will also look into economic impact of climate change
2009 is undeniably a big year. failing health system. Added to this gloomy urbanisation and the social dimensions of in Kenya. The study is funded by the UK
Our research will play an important picture is the growing urgency of global war- environmental issues in relation to China’s Department for International Development
role in Sweden’s Presidency of the Euro- ming. The President has already signalled that development (DFID) and the Danish International develop-
pean Union. And we will continue to his administration will take a decidedly diffe- Among other things, they will continue to ment Agency (DANIDA).
strengthen our international research rent stance than his predecessor. SEI is work with the Chinese 50 Economists Forum, The SEI sustainable sanitation programme
network, not least through our new asking: what does this mean in practice? present a report comparing climate and (EcoSanRes) is setting up 10 knowledge nodes
Africa Centre. The answer is that the US sees climate change energy policy in China and the US, and carry around the world. The node in Burkina Faso will
On climate change, forthcoming policies as part of a larger strategy for sustain- out a study of cooperation between China spread practical information among municipal-
research publications and events for ed national development. Our ambition is to and Africa. ities and local councils in order to reduce ill
policymakers will focus on the crucial identify those factors with real positive climate health, increase food security, and generate
roles of China, the US, and the EU in impact. These insights will ultimately generate income for both rural and urban communities.
the UN negotiations. a set of recommendations for the UN climate The nodes also feed local experiences into
change negotiations in Copenhagen (COP 15). national and international networks.
policy briefs, many prepared to coincide with RED audience are from developing countries. Stockholm Resilience Centre, of which SEI is OCTOBER
• Changwon: UNEP Global Climate Change
the UN climate change conference in Poznań. an integral part. We also held an open house
Adaptation Network meeting
More than www.sei.se at our Asia office where we hosted key part-
NOVEMBER
Building capacity From webcasting to online courses, SEI became ners and stakeholders, establishing SEI as an
• Macau: World Toilet Summit & Expo. Presented
SEI researchers are much sought after by con- more of an online experience in 2008. In Octo- important policy and research partner in the EcoSanRes report
ference organisers and journalists. To help ber 2008 we launched an on-line Foundation region. And at the UN climate change negoti- • Bangkok: Better Air Quality (BAQ) conference
them develop the skills to get their messages Course on Air Quality Management in Asia. In ations in Poznań (COP 14), we broke with tradi- DECEMBER
across we held our first communications work- the same month we doubled our website visit- tion by leading a participatory side event on • Poznań: The United Nations Climate Change
shop in September 2008. But we don’t just ors by webcasting a high-level seminar on adaptation. Conference (COP 14)
• Boston: SEI US symposium, Taking Climate Change
build capacity in-house: last year SEI provided climate change held at the Swedish Parliament.
Seriously: Research and Policy Directions for the
Next US Administration
42
Future Sustainability Programme - Working Paper
PUBLICATIONS SELECTED PUBLISHED WORK E. Dawkins, A. Paul, J. Barrett, J. Minx and K. Sco
2008
FACT SHEET
Articles in journals Ziervogel, G. and Taylor, A. (2008). Feeling F. Irwin (eds) Policies for Sustainable Country/region:
Moving Towards a Low Carbon Economy in China
China
Research and Forum on Economics of Climate Change: Towards a Low Carbon Economy in
Project name:
China
Duration:
Background
Shell (China); Swedish Ministry of Environment; GTZ, Germany; Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs, UK; Rockefeller Brothers Foundation
October 2007–September 2009
in four easy pieces. Development, 51(3): with other priorities in South Africa. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. isbn
at high and escalating environmental costs – for the country
itself and increasingly also for the global community. • What structural changes can be anticipated?
Many developing economies are looking to China as a What are the financial and economic implications of a low
development model. Following the Chinese path several of carbon economy for China in the short, medium and long-
these countries may succeed in creating stronger economies term?
but with rapidly increasing carbon footprints as a result. • How would the low carbon economy be affected by factor
productivity, sector energy efficiency, energy intensity,
Domestically China faces an increasingly severe challenge of investment streams and job creation?
climate change impacts, which, in combination with China’s
dominating future role as greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter and • Are there tradeoffs between short-term investment
the severe pollution associated with China’s energy system, has considerations (e.g. to solve energy and other resource
325–331. 9781847202444. could move towards a low carbon economy, in the interests of
both China and the world.
Cinderby, S., Snell, C. and Forrester, J. Morone, P. and Taylor, R. (2008). Knowledge
(2008). Participatory GIS and its applica- Books architecture and knowledge flows. In:
tion in governance: the example of air Ackerman, F. (2008). Can We Afford the M. Khosrow-Pour (ed.) Encyclopedia of
quality and the implications for noise Future? Economics for a Warming World. Information Science and Technology
pollution. Local Environment, 13 (4): London: Zed Books. isbn 9781848130388. (2. ed.). Hershey, PA.: Information Science
In 2008 we wrote:
309–320. Baker, S. and Eckerberg, K. (eds.) (2008). In Reference. P. 2319-2324.
● 75 peer-reviewed articles, books and
SEI Project Report
Haq, G., Whitelegg, J., Cinderby, S. and Pursuit of Sustainable Development: New isbn 9781605660264. Generated User Benefits and the Heathrow Expansion
Understanding Consumer Surplu
A report to Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Irela
Owen, A. (2008). The use of personalised Governance Practices at the Sub-national Nilsson, M. and Persson, Å. (2008). Sweden.
book chapters
2008
social marketing to foster voluntary behav- Level in Europe. London: Routledge. In: A.J. Jordan and A. Lenschow (eds.)
● 104 other scientific articles and reports, and
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ioural change for sustainable travel and isbn 9780415419109. Innovation in Environmental Policy?: Inte-
lifestyles. Local Environment, 13 (7): Patt, A.G., Schröter, D., Klein, R.J.T. and de la grating the Environment for Sustainability.
● 11 popular science publications.
549–569. Vega-Leinert, A.C. (eds.) (2008). Assessing Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. P. 224–
e, 200
8
Hicks, W. K., Kuylenstierna, J.C.I., Owen, A., Vulnerability to Global Environmental 246. isbn 9781847204905
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ort, Sto
ckholm
Dentener, F., Seip, H-M. and Rodhe, H. Change: Making Research Useful for Ziervogel, G., Nyong, A., Osman-Elasha, B.,
(2008).Soil sensitivity to acidification in Adaptation Decision Making and Policy. Conde, C., Cortés, S. and Downing, T.
Asia: status and prospects. Ambio, 37 (4): London: Earthscan. isbn 9781844076970. (2008). Household food security and
295–303. Schipper, E.L.F. and Burton, I. (eds.) (2008). climate change: comparisons from Nigeria,
Kemp-Benedict, E. and Agyemang-Bonsu, The Earthscan Reader on Adaptation to Sudan, South Africa and Mexico. In:
A Review of Offset Programs: g Syste
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SEI Project Report
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W.K. (2008). The Akropong approach to Climate Change. London: Earthscan. N. Leary, et. al. (eds.) Climate Change farming systems: the value of soft component
in meso-scale intervention
Jennie Barron, Stacey Noel, Maimbo Malesu, Alex Oduo
fset Pr Standards
Trading Systems, Funds, Protocols,
Gedion Shone and Johan Rockström
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Standards and Retailers 40 (9): 834–840. isbn 9781844074693
Kollmuss, A., Lazarus, M., Lee, C., Laur, A. and Kallaste, T. (2008) COFITECK – Book chapters
and Polycarp, C. project for developing biomass co-firing Chen, Y. and Johnson, F.X. (2008). Sweden: Reports
technologies and biomass market in greening the power market in a context of Baer, P., Athanasiou, T., Kartha, S. and Future Sustainability Programme - Policy Paper
Central and Eastern Europe (in Estonian). liberalization and nuclear ambivalence. Kemp-Benedict, E. (2008). The Green- Carbon Footprint of Housing in the Leeds Cit
Region – A Best Practice Scenario Analysi
of the most influential offset programs and activities. The Technology), no. 1: 28–29. Promoting Sustainable Electricity in the Right to Development in a Climate Key Findings
Growing Old in a Changing Climate
Meeting the challenges of an ageing population and climate change
• Climate change and an ageing population are crucial policy challenges which need to be
addressed to ensure a safe, secure, equitable and sustainable future.
review reflects on lessons learned, and so informs participants Nilsson, M., Jordan, A., Turnpenny, J., Hertin, Europe. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. P. Constrained World (2., rev.ed.).
• Babyboomers have a higher carbon footprint compared to other age groups.
• Older people want to be part of the solution and to provide advice and guidance on what
could be done to address climate change.
• Older people are especially vulnerable to some of the negative impacts of climate change.
They form a large and growing group in European society that needs an explicit policy
response to minimise risk and vulnerability.
• There is an urgent need to exploit synergies between climate change policies and policies
aimed at older people and to avoid overlaps and contradiction.
and designers of current and future offset programmes. The J., Nykvist, B. and Russel, D. (2008). The 219–250. isbn 978184720807. Berlin: Heinrich Böll Foundation. • There are many policy responses that can produce significant gains in quality of life for older
people and at the same time contribute to reducing carbon footprints. These are summarised
in recommendations 1–5.
Introduction
The UK population is ageing. By 2031, the over 50s are ex-
pected to represent approximately 41 per cent of the UK popu-
use and non-use of policy appraisal tools in Publication Series on Ecology, vol. 1.
lation (27 million). This is a new and significant demographic
Carbon footprint of older people This was the most likely age group to say that climate change
In a national survey of attitudes to climate change, those aged is the result of natural changes, and the most likely to say that
65-plus showed less awareness and concern about the issue. they would not be affected by climate change.
European countries and the European water approach. In: A. Dinar and A. Garrido equity.org/docs/TheGDRsFramework.pdf
accessible. This version includes programmes that meet one Union. Policy Sciences, 41 (4): 335–355. (eds) Managing Water Resources in a Time Klein, R.J.T., Kartha, S., Persson, Å., Watkiss,
or more of the following criteria: Smakhtin, V. and Schipper, E.L.F. (2008) of Global Change: Mountains, Valleys and P., Ackerman, F., Downing, T.E., Kjellén, B.
• a significant volume of credit transactions occurring or Droughts: the impact of semantics and Flood Plains. Oxford: Routledge. and Schipper, L. (2008). Adaptation:
perceptions. Water Policy, 10 (2): 131–143. isbn 9780415777780 Needs, Financing and Institutions. London:
anticipated Risk and Vulnerability Programme - Policy Paper
Tol, R.S.J., Klein, R.J.T. and Nicholls, R.J. Karlberg, L., Barron, J. and Rockström, J. Office of Tony Blair and the Climate Group. Action: A Review of Vulnerability to Environmenta
Stresses and Natural Hazards in PRSP
• an established set of rules or protocols (2008). Towards successful adaptation to (2008). Water productivity and green 23 pp. (Briefing paper to the report Breaking
2008
• path-breaking, novel or otherwise notable initiatives, or sea-level rise along Europe’s coasts. Journal water management in agro-ecosystems. the Climate Deadlock). Environmental Accounting for People and Places
FACT SHEET
of Coastal Research, 24 (2): 432–442. In: J. Förare (ed.) Water for Food. Stock- http://www.theclimategroup.org/assets/ Current users:
Distribution:
Local, regional and national government in the UK, commercial users, academic users, and
NGOs
SEI provides a training session for consultancies and government agencies as part of any REAP
software license. Footprint reports and detailed results can be downloaded for all 434 local
authorities in the UK from our website. Regional and national data can also be downloaded
from the site. (www.resource-accounting.org.uk)
social cost of carbon: valuation estimates Li, L. (2008). Putting the assessment into Financing _and_Institutions.pdf
• How do we relate this to populations at different spatial updated and monitored for:
scales and over time?
• carbon dioxide and other emissions of greenhouse gases;
• How do we explore where resource savings can be made
both in production efficiency and consumption patterns? • air pollutants and heavy metals; and
The tool helps assess the potential environmental impact of • the Ecological Footprint and material flows.
policies and to monitor the actual impact of policies over
time. These indicators measure the impact of changes in the
consumption activities of individuals and households within a
Our mission is to convert the best available science into tools specific geographical area. They take account of the domestic
Strategic focus
POLICY BRIEF
• Current day concentrations of ground level ozone (O3) are commonly reducing crop yields by
between 5 and 35 % at agriculturally important locations across South Asia.
• O3 induced economic crop losses could be in the region of $4 billion per annum for staple
crops in South Asia; such losses are likely to impact more on poor and vulnerable people.
• O3 concentrations are increasing rapidly in South Asia and the situation looks set to worsen
sei annual report 2008 publications 43 considerably in the future under current legislation to control emissions.
• Crop yield losses from current day O3 concentrations are greater than projected losses due to
climate change, indicating that O3 may be a more immediate problem to food security.
• O3 impacts depend upon local meteorology and CO2 concentrations. It will be important to
understand the role of climate change in determining O3 related yield losses.
• O3 induced yield reductions suggest this pollutant may be an important contributing factor to
the recent decline in the growth of crop yields seen across South Asia.
• There are substantial co-benefits in reducing O3 precursor emissions since O3 is also an im-
portant greenhouse gas and is capable of causing adverse effects on human health.
What is ground level ozone? agreements such as the Malé Declaration, and initiatives in-
Ground level ozone (O3) is the atmospheric pollutant most cluding the Atmospheric Brown Clouds Project, to include O3
likely to threaten global food production due to its high toxic- in their activities and research programmes.
ity to arable crops and prevalence over important agricultural
regions. O3 is a secondary pollutant formed from chemical Box 1. Experimental Evidence
reactions of primary pollutants (nitrogen oxides and volatile Filtration studies are a common experimental method
organic compounds) occurring under the action of sunlight. used in Asia comparing crops grown in “clean” or
These reactions occur continually in polluted air masses which “filtered” air with those in “ambient” air that may con-
leads to an accumulation of O3 at distances (sometimes up to tain pollution. These studies have shown that a large
thousands of kilometres) downwind from the initial polluting number of local crops and cultivars are extremely sen-
source (i.e urban or industrial areas). This makes O3 a pollut- sitive to O3 at present day concentrations (Figure 1).
ant more likely to affect agricultural regions with elevated
O3 concentrations frequently covering broad geographical
areas and crossing international boundaries. Ground level
O3 is also the third most important greenhouse gas behind car-
bon dioxide and methane and has been shown to adversely
affect human health at elevated concentrations. As such there
would be substantial co-benefits in emission reductions to
control O3 pollution.
Lars Anell (Chair) Sukaina Bharawanir Lidia Brito Patrick Büker Matthew Chadwick Angela Cropper Birgitta Dahl Lena Ek
Sweden UK Mozambique UK UK Trinidad and Tobago Sweden Sweden
Former Senior Vice- SEI Staff Representative. Assistant Professor in SEI Staff Representative. SEI Staff Representative. Co-founder and President Former Swedish Minister Member of the European
president at AB Volvo, Her research includes Wood Science and His research focuses His research focuses on of the Cropper Foundation of Environment and Parliament
involved in policy and modelling of poverty and Technology at Eduardo on the impacts of air natural resources and Deputy Director of Speaker of the Parliament
environment vulnerability scenarios. Mondlane University. pollution. management issues. UNEP
Carl Folke Eva Lindskog Giuseppe Locati Johan Rockström John Schellnhuber Jim Skea Youba Sokona Monthip S. Tabucanon
Sweden Sweden Italy Sweden Germany UK Mali Thailand
Director, The Beijer SEI Staff Representative. Vice-president, Corporate Executive Director, SEI Director, Potsdam Research Director, Executive Secretary, Inspector General,
Institute of Ecological Her area of expertise is Health and Environment, Institute for Climate UK Energy Research Sahara and Sahel Thai Ministry of
Economics. social impact assessment. Pirelli Impact Research (PIK) Centre Observatory (OSS) Natural Resources and
Science Director, Environment
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Bilateral agencies El Dorado Irrigation District, US Humanist Institute for Development Foundations
Australian Agency for International Government of Estonia Cooperation (HIVOS) Environmental Investment Centre (EIC)
Development (AusAID) Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Sweden International START Secretariat Estonian Association for Environmental
Government of Germany, GTZ, BGR, GLOWA Ministry of the Environment, Sweden Institute for International and European Management
Swedish International Development National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- Environmental Policy (Ecologic) Latvian Green Movement
Cooperation Agency (Sida) tration (NOAA), US International Energy Agency (IEA) The Swedish Foundation for Strategic
UK Department for International National Renewable Energy Laboratory International Centre for Integrated Mountain Environmental Research (MISTRA)
Development (DFID) (NREL), US Department of Environment Development (ICIMOD) The Swedish Research Council for Environ-
Natural England, UK International Union for Conservation of ment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial
Multilateral agencies South Africa National Energy Research Nature (IUCN) Planning (FORMAS)
European Commission Institute (SANERI) International Water Management Institute Winrock International Institute for Agricultural
Nordic Council of Ministers Swedish Energy Agency (IWMI) Development
United Nations Economic Commission for Swedish Environmental Protection Agency National Environment Research Council
Europe International Cooperative Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological (NERC) Private sector
Programme (UNECE ICP) on Vegetation Institute (SMHI) Natural Resources Defense Council Cipax Estonia
United Nations Development Programme US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) The Nature Conservancy Estonian Energy
(UNDP) US State Department South Pacific Regional Environment ETC International Group
United Nations Environment Programme Programme (SPREP) ENVECO Miljöekonomi AB
(UNEP) Research institutes and NGOs Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) Ramboll Natura AB
United Nations Framework Convention on Center for International Forestry Research Stockholm Resilience Centre Rolls Royce
Climate Change (UNFCCC) (CIFOR) Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) Shell China
United Nations Institute for Training and Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Tellus Institute Unilever
Research (UNITAR) Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Tällberg Foundation
United Nations Office for Project Services The Climate Group Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) Banks
(UNOPS) Christian Aid World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Asian Development Bank
Ecotrust World Bank Group
Government Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Universities
City Government of Seattle, Washington, US Council (EPSRC) Lund University
City Government of Sharon, Massachusetts, Environmental and Energy Study Institute University of California, Davis
US (EESI) University of California, San Diego
Department of Environment, Food and Rural Friends of the Earth University of Tübingen
Affairs (DEFRA), UK Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
East Bay Municipal Water District, US (SLU)
Research
Future Atmospheric Climate and institutes Europe
sustainability environment energy and NGOs Government Foundations SEK 20.9 m (12%)
SEK 13.3 m (8%) SEK 21.5 m (13%) SEK 35.1 m (21%) SEK 16 m (9%) SEK 29.8 m (18%) SEK 3.0 m (2%)
Research
Future Atmospheric Climate and institutes
sustainability environment energy and NGOs Government Foundations Europe
SEK 6.9m (5%) SEK 17.2 m (13%) SEK 27.1 m (21%) SEK 13.3 m (10%) SEK 22.1 m (17%) SEK 1.5 m (1%) SEK 18.5 m (14%)
The aim of our environmental policy is to ’walk our talk’ and to MINIMISING OUR CARBON FOOTPRINT
carry out our work as sustainably as possible, aiming to minimise 1 Reducing our carbon emissions from travel by doing less of it
our own negative impact on the environment. and switching to more environmentally friendly modes of travel.