Romanias Security Dilemma During the Cold War:

Covert Action and the Comintern

Lecture #2
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Theoretical Discussion for Lecture #2

Internal & External Challenges Facing the Intelligence Cycle, Covert Actions and Active Measures

Dissemination

Planning & Direction

Analysis & Production

Collection

Processing

The Intelligence Cycle

Interested Policy-makers quickly learn that intelligence can be used the way a drunk uses a lamp post for support rather than illumination
T. L. Hughes

Decision-Makers

Dissemination

Planning & Direction

Analysis & Production

Collection

Processing

Politicization In The Intelligence Cycle

Problems & Challenges Internal To The Intelligence Cycle

(Institutional Issues) Bureaucracy & Mgt
Mission Budget Personnel

(Analytical Issues) Unified Rational Actor Idiosyncratic Challenges

Cry Wolf Ultra Historical Intelligence

(Operations Issues) HUMINT Reliability Linguistic Competence Recruitment Tours Boys vs. Toys

Cognitive Bias
Mirror-Imaging Fundamental Attribution

Organizational Pathologies
Turf wars, politicization, secrecy, etc.

Planning & Dissemination Bureaucracy Direction

Organizational Pathologies Analytical Impediments

Analysis & Production

Inadequate Product Manpower Issues Collection Linguistic Limitations Technology Issues Manpower Issues

Processing

Problems Internal to the Intelligence Cycle

Decision-Makers

Dissemination
Bureaucracy

Bureaucracy Organizational Pathologies Analytical Impediments

Planning & Direction

Analysis & Production

Inadequate Product Manpower IssuesCollection Linguistic Limitations Technology Issues Manpower Issues

Processing

Problems Internal To The Intelligence Cycle

As long as the other side has a good intelligence service and is capable of reacting to what it sees, its possible to fool them again and again.
Barkis Contradiction

Penetration Dissemination Penetration, Deception (Coordinated Propaganda : Planning & Direction

Deception, Penetration

Open Source Analyses, Media Reports, Etc.)

Deception, Penetration Collection

Analysis & Production

Processing Penetration

Influencing The Intelligence Cycle

Penetration

Decision-Makers Planning & Direction

Deception, Penetration

Dissemination
Bureaucracy

Bureaucracy

Penetration, Deception,

Coordinated Propaganda Penetration Analytical Impediments (Open Source Analyses, Media Reports, etc.) Inadequate Product Analysis & Manpower Issues Collection

Organizational Pathologies

Deception,

Production

Linguistic Limitations Technology Issues Manpower Issues

Processing

Penetration

The Intelligence Cycle Internal and External Vulnerabilities

Covert Action Methods

CIA Covert Action Propaganda Political Economic Paramilitary Assassination KGB Active Measures Propaganda Disinformation Agents of Influence Paramilitary Terrorist, Sabotage Assassination

Soviet Active Measures:

Combined Methods, Various Objectives

Non-Coercive Methods Rumors, Media Reports, Propaganda Academic Studies, Front Organizations, Agents of Influence, Disinformation
Penetration Agents, Forgeries

Paramilitary Terrorist Sabotage Assassination

Coercive Methods
KGB DRGs, GRU Spetsnaz, Soviet Armed Forces Air Assault Units, Various Warsaw Pact Commando Forces (e.g. the Stasis AGM/5), Middle Eastern, European, Asian & Latin American Terrorist Groups

GRU Spetsnaz Missions

Hunting down & assassinating enemys political and military leaders; Locating enemys nuclear facilities for targeting by Soviet aircraft & missiles or destruction by independent action; Neutralizing command systems by acting against command centers, staffs, & lines of communication; Destroying airfields, naval bases, and air defense installations in enemy territory; Disrupting enemy power system (power stations, oil & gas storage, pipelines, power lines, etc.)

Stasi AGM/S Missions

Destroy or disrupt communication & transportation lines, fuel, lubrication, energy, gas and water supply; Liquidate or kidnap leading personalities with decisionmaking powers, specialists, & experts; Cause insecurity to leading persons in imperialist power structure through anonymous calls, threatening letters, letter- and packet-bombs, other explosive devices, etc. Cause insecurity to leading persons in politicalideological diversion centers through disturbances, obstructing performance of duties (targeted liquidation or kidnapping of leading persons such as editors, commentators) Damage or shut down facilities in these centers (e.g. bomb or arson attacks against centers)

Stasi AGM/S Missions

Support forces acting against the imperialist power structure. Use existing terror and criminal scene as cover. Study and analyze all available information about the terror scene in the imperialist states and closely follow the methods and tactics employed, in order to use them oneself. Provoke panic-creating measures, e.g. large-scale arson, poisoning food and water, or threats to do the same.

Historical Discussion For Lecture #2

Covert Action & Paramilitary Ops Against Romania 1919-1941

1919-1939:
Poland & Romania
The Border of Europe with the USSR
According to Soviet Archives, Romania (and Poland) became the principal target of Soviet Military Strategy & Intelligence Operations from 1919 until at least 1934 with all of the corresponding deployment, basing & military-paramilitaryintelligence operational preparations such a stance implies.

Lenin on Terror and Concealment

The guerrilla warfare and mass terror throughout Russia since December, will undoubtedly help the masses to learn the correct tactics of an uprising. Social Democracy must recognize this mass terror & incorporate it into its tactics.

1906

[100,000 rubles bounty for every] kulak, priest and landowner who is hanged. We'll make the hangings look like the work of the [opposition] 'Greens' and then we'll put 1917 the blame on them. We must put down all resistance with such brutality that they will not forget it for several decades... The more reactionary clergy and reactionary bourgeoisie we succeed 1922 in executing, the better.

Common Hungarian & Soviet Strategies Towards Romania in the Interwar Period
Romania, against whom we have the greatest territorial pretensions, is our no. 1 enemy Until the time is ripe for an attack, pacific relations must be used to isolate it diplomatically and an active irredentist organization must continue to exist in Transylvania.
Admiral Horthy, October 1919

Conditions do not permit the immediate realization of Bessarabias liberation from under the foreign bourgeoislandowner yoke, while the struggle of the USSR for resolving the Bessarabian problem, as an element of Soviet peace policies, is transferred onto the field of diplomatic activity.
Soviet Authorities, April 1925

RUMCHEROD

1918

Bessarabian Societies

1925-1940 1944

Romanian Supreme Board

1919

Litvinov Commission

War to the hilt between Communism and capitalism is inevitable. Today, of course, we are not strong enough to attack. To win, we shall need the element of surprise. The bourgeoisie will have to be put to sleep. So we shall begin by launching the most spectacular peace movement on record. As soon as their guard is down, we will smash them with our clenched fist. Dimitri Manuilsky, Lenin School for Political Warfare 1930s

Soviet Terrorist Attacks

1920-1926

5th COMINTERN Congress 1924

The Congress recognizes the necessity for intensifying Communist work among Magyars in the territory annexed by Romania and for the Romanian Communist Partys adoption of slogans for the right of these Magyars to national self-determination up to secession from the state that annexed them. The Congress approves the launching by the Communist Party of Romania of slogans for the separation of Transylvania and Dobrogea from Romania in independent regions. Romanian Communist Party Leaders 1924-1944

Elek Kbls

Boris Stefanov

Istvan Foris

Common Tactics of Soviet & Hungarian Authorities

Disrupt Administration & Block Consolidation of Authority Provoke & Exacerbate Insecurity Project Target Territory as Temporarily-Occupied to both Domestic & Foreign Audiences Provoke Violence and Reprisals in Territory to Prove Abusive Nature of Regime After Re-Occupation, Eliminate Secular & Religious Community Leaders to Facilitate Assimilation

Willi Munzenberg

Henri Barbusse

US Mission of Bessarabian Societies

1924-1940
Gain recognition of Bessarabian populations right to detach itself from Romania because province was incorporated through force into the Romanian Kingdom;

Persuade American public opinion that any Soviet military intervention in Romania should be interpreted as a case of armed assistance accorded by the U.S.S.R. following the expressed request of the Bessarabian population;
Maintain a press campaign showing the unfortunate situation of the province, the starvation of the population and the necessity of an outside assistance in order to rid it of the yoke of Romanian repression; and Gather funds for liberation struggle.