2009 IEEE Electrical Insulation Conference, Montreal, QC, Canada, 31 May - 3 June 2009

Predicting Transformers Oil Parameters

1

Khaled Shaban1, Ayman EL-Hag2 and Andrei Matveev3

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar 2 American University of Sharjah, Sharjah, UAE 3 University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada

Abstract- In this paper different configurations of artificial neural networks are applied to predict various transformers oil parameters. The prediction is performed through modeling the relationship between the transformer insulation resistance extracted from the Megger test and the breakdown strength, interfacial tension, acidity and the water content of the transformers oil. The process of predicting these oil parameters statuses is carried out using two different configurations of neural networks. First, a multilayer feed forward neural network with a back-propagation learning algorithm is implemented. Subsequently, a cascade of these neural networks is deemed to be more promising. Both configurations are evaluated using real-world training and testing data and the accuracy is calculated across a variety of hidden layer and hidden node combinations. The results indicate that even with a lack of sufficient data to train the network, accuracy levels of 83.9% for breakdown voltage, 94.6% for interfacial tension, 56.4% for water content, and 75.4% for oil acidity predictions were obtained by the cascade of neural networks.
I. INTRODUCTION

Transformer is a very important component in the power system network. During operation, partial discharge (PD) may take place inside the transformer tank which may lead to the degradation of the transformer oil and eventually to the insulation failure. Both on-line and off-line monitoring of transformer insulation system is usually conducted using different techniques like dissolved gas analysis (DGA), PD and dielectric response measurements [1]. While these techniques are justified for power transformers, the cost involved in them is not justified for distribution transformers. Alternatively, standard tests for oil samples taken on regular basis are usually conducted for both power and distribution transformers. Examples of these tests are breakdown voltage, water content and total acidity. Based on the values of these standard tests, a decision can be made to change, de-gas or use the same oil. As part of a maintenance contract, the electric utility in Saudi Arabia requested a local transformer manufacturer to evaluate the status of many used distribution transformers. As part of the contract, it was requested to conduct several tests on the transformer oil along with other transformer routine tests. Testing

transformer oil involves taking a sample of the oil and sending it to a laboratory for the results. The cost involved in each oil sample is around $200 and since the number of transformers to be tested is between 100-150 transformers per year, the cost of only testing the oil will be high. Thus, it would be very helpful if the values of the transformer oil tests could be predicted. Most of the research involving transformer oil prediction is mainly related to predicting the transformer insulation status based on DGA results [2]. Few studies have been conducted to estimate the transformer characteristics like water content and breakdown voltages. A polynomial regression model has been developed to predict the breakdown voltage as a function of the transformer service period, total acidity and water content [3]. Except for few cases, the percentage error between the actual and predicted values of transformer breakdown voltage was less than 10%. However, the model requires the water content and total acidity as an input to predict the breakdown voltage. So, while saving the cost of conducting the breakdown voltage test, there is still a need to conduct two other oil tests. Moreover, the values of the water content and total acidity need to be collected at different time intervals to formulate the mathematical model and predict the value of the transformer oil breakdown voltage. Such historical data for transformer oil tests might be available for power transformers but the high number of distribution transformers makes such practice very costly and usually historical data for distribution transformer oil tests are not available. In this paper, we are estimating the values of different oil parameters using various configurations of neural networks for different distribution transformers. Unlike what has been reported in [3], the input data for the neural networks is the standard Megger test between the transformer high voltage winding, low voltage winding and ground. A similar attempt has been carried out through the development of polynomial regression modeling technique [4]. The regression modeling approach has achieved prediction accuracy values of 93% for the interfacial tension while the breakdown could be predicted with an accuracy of 84%. On the

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other hand, the prediction accuracy was around 35% for the transformer oil water content.
II. MATERIALS AND METHODS

A. Experimental Setup Thirty five different oil filled distribution transformers have been used in this study. The rating of the transformers range from 300-1000 kVA and their high voltage rating ranges from 13.8-34.5 kV. The units were manufactured between 1983 and 1994 by different transformers manufacturers and the oil used in all units was mineral oil provided from the same supplier. The units were taken from the distribution network to conduct routine maintenance to evaluate their working conditions. The electrical insulation between the high voltagelow voltage winding (HV/LV), the high voltage winding-ground (HV/E) and low voltage windingground (LV/E) were measured. A high voltage of 2 kV is applied and the insulation resistance was measured after 15 seconds. The results of the insulation resistance for all transformers are depicted in Figure 1.

results as discussed earlier were used as inputs along with the color test for the Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) and other oil results were used in the training process.
TABLE1: CONDUCTED TESTS AND THEIR CORRESPONDING STANDARDS Test ASTM Accepted value standard for aged oil Dielectric breakdown (kV)( min.) D-877 26 Interfacial tension, (dynes/cm)( D-971 24 min.) Water content, (ppm)( max.) D-1583 35 Total Acidity (mg KOH/g oil)( D-644 0.3 max.)

(a)

Fig. 1: Insulation resistance measurements for all transformers.

Also, an oil sample was taken from each transformer and the following tests have been conducted on each oil sample (Table 1). The measured values for total acidity, water content and breakdown voltage of transformer oil are shown in Figure 2. B. Neural Network Simulations Different configurations of neural networks have been constructed in this study. First, a multilayer feed forward neural network with a back-propagation learning algorithm was implemented. This configuration is depicted in Figure 3. Subsequently, a cascade of these neural networks was deemed to be more promising. The single network configuration takes four inputs and outputs four parameter values, while the cascade configuration has four neural networks, each with two or three inputs and a single output; the output from some networks were pipelined to be inputs of successive networks to produce the final values. The Megger tests

(b)

(c)

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Fig. 2: Transformer oil testing values for all transformers; (a) Total acidity number, (b) Water content and (c) Breakdown voltage.

Fig. 3: Configuration #1: Basic feed forward back-propagation ANN

randomized. This was done so that none of the 324 configurations would have an advantage over the other by being better at interpreting a fixed combination of data. The second phase, however, was conducted for a fixed set of training and testing data (hence the order was the same for all of the 10 times). This was done so that it would be possible to drill down within a specific network configuration for a specific dataset partitioning to see how good the network can get. For all of the runs, a ratio of 2/3 of the data available was used for training and 1/3 was used for testing.
TABLE 2 ANNS TOPOLOGY PARAMETERS USED FOR SIMULATION Values (yielding 324 combinations) 1, 2 Hidden Layers Stage 1 1, 2 Hidden Layers Stage 2 & Stage 3 3, 5, 10 Hidden Neurons Stage 1 3, 5, 10 Hidden Neurons Stage 2 & Stage 3 500, 1000, 5000 Epochs Stage 1 500, 1000, 5000 Epochs Stage 2 & Stage 3

Figure 4 shows the cascade configuration that utilizes the Megger test results as inputs. The purpose of the first stage of this configuration is to calculate the outputs that are known to have a high correlation with the Megger test results inputs; namely, the breakdown voltage and the interfacial tension [4]. The purpose of the second network is to predict the water content within the oil inside the transformer. The inputs to the second network are the outputs of first stage of the cascade. The justification for using breakdown voltage for deriving the water content is the strong correlation between the transformer oil breakdown voltage and its water content [5]. The usage of interfacial tension to derive the water content is apparent when considering that the value of the interfacial tension at the interface of the water and oil is dependent on the water level inside the oil. The third stage of the cascade consists of a neural network for deriving the acidity of oil based on the breakdown voltage and the water content.

As Table 2 demonstrates, the cascade configuration was essentially divided into two parts stage 1 which used first hand derivation (based on inputs values) and stages 2 & 3 which used the produced values of stage 1 for derivations. This was done in order to simplify the problem and also limit the simulation time for the possible configurations. In the following subsections the results of each ANN configuration will be discussed. A. Configuration #1: Basic feed forward backpropagation ANN As previously discussed a simple feed forward back propagation as shown in Figure 3 has been implemented to forecast the transformer oil parameters. The configuration tuned parameters values and results of the first ANN are shown in Tables 3 and 4 respectively. It can be noticed that the level of accuracy achieved using this configuration is acceptable for both the breakdown voltage and interfacial tension. These results are comparable with the ones reported in [4]. This confirms the observation previously mentioned that there is a strong correlation between the transformer insulation resistance measurement and both transformer oil breakdown and interfacial tension. On the other hand and similarly to what has been reported in [4], a very weak correlation between transformer insulation resistance and water content exists as depicted in Table 4. Water in the oil can be a product of oxidation or insulation paper degradation [5]. The water in paper/oil insulation system is always in a state of temperature dependent equilibrium. This means that moisture moves from the insulation paper to the oil

Fig. 4: Configuration #2: A cascade of ANNs III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Analysis for the cascade configuration was carried out in two phases. First, a simulation was run for the 324 possible ANNs topology parameter combinations consisting of the values specified in Table 2. Second, for the topology parameter combination that yielded the best results, we ran them an additional 10 times to see how good of a value could be achieved. It should be noted that for the first phase of this analysis the order of selection of data for testing and training was

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as the temperature increases and vice versa. The electrical insulation resistance measurement will be affected by the water content in the transformer oil and paper. However, since the oil was sampled at different ambient temperatures, this may result in different percentage of water in transformer oil/paper which is reflected in the weak correlation between the transformer oil water content and insulation resistance measurement. Oil acidity has a moderate correlation with the electrical insulation measurement. Oxidation of the insulation and oil forms acids as the transformer ages. Acid attacks cellulose paper and accelerates their aging process and hence contributes to the reduction in insulation resistance.
TABLE 3 OPTIMAL ANN PARAMETERS USED FOR CONFIGURATION NO.1 Values (yielding 324 combinations) 1, 2 Hidden Layers 3, 5, 10 Hidden Neurons 500, 1000, 5000 Epochs TABLE 4: TRANSFORMER OIL PREDICTION ACCURACY RESULTS FOR
CONFIGURATION NO. 1:

Conversely, little improvement in the total acidity prediction has been achieved which reflects less correlation between transformer total acidity and oil breakdown voltage and interfacial tension.
TABLE 5 - OPTIMAL ANN PARAMETERS USED FOR CONFIGURATION NO. 2 Value 2 Hidden Layers Stage 1 2 Hidden Layers Stage 2 & Stage 3 5 Hidden Neurons Stage 1 10 Hidden Neurons Stage 2 & Stage 3 500 Epochs Stage 1 1000 Epochs Stage 2 & Stage 3 TABLE 6 - TRANSFORMER OIL PREDICTION ACCURACY RESULTS FOR CONFIGURATION NO. 2: Value 84 % Breakdown Voltage 94 % Interfacial Tension 51 % Water Content in Oil 70 % Oil Acidity VI. CONCLUSIONS

Breakdown Voltage Interfacial Tension Water Content in Oil Oil Acidity

Value 84 % 94 % 34 % 62 %

B. Configuration #2: A cascade of ANNs with No Oil Color Input: It is apparent from the previous discussion that the prediction accuracy of both breakdown voltage and interfacial tension can be used instead of measuring their value. However, both oil water content and acidity prediction value need to be improved. In the cascade configuration, both the predicted breakdown voltage and interfacial tension values are used as an input to predict the other two oil parameters, i.e. water content and acidity. In this configuration, oil color is not used as an input to predict any of the transformer oil parameters. Tables 5 and 6 show the optimal network parameters and the predicted values of transformer oil respectively. It is evident from tables 5 and 6 that using the cascade configuration increased the accuracy to predict the transformer oil water content from 34% to 51%. Such improvement could be attributed to the fact that the breakdown voltage and the interfacial tension both are used as inputs to the second stage ANN. The breakdown voltage is sensitive to the presence of physical contaminant and water in the oil and hence it is correlated with the water content. Also, the interfacial tension is a measure of the strength of the interface between oil and water and hence it is correlated with the transformer oil water content.

The value of oil breakdown, interfacial tension, acidity and water content was predicted using various configurations of artificial neural networks technique. The values of the transformer Megger tests along with the transformer oil color have been used as the input to the neural networks. The prediction process of these oil parameters statuses was performed using different configurations of artificial neural networks. The results indicated that even with a lack of sufficient data to train the nueral networks, accuracy levels of 84% for breakdown voltage, 94% for interfacial tension, 51% for water content, and 70% for oil acidity predictions were obtained by the cascade of neural networks.
REFERENCES [1] B. H. Ward, A Survey of New Techniques in Insulation Monitoring of Power Transformers, IEEE Electr. Insul. Mag., Vol. 17, No.3, pp.1623, 2001. S. A. Ward, Evaluating transformer condition using DGA oil analysis, IEEE CEIDP, pp. 463-468, 2003. M. A. Wahab, M. M. Hamada, A. G. Zeitoun and G. Ismail, Novel modeling for the prediction of aged transformer oil characteristics, Electric Power System Research, 51, pp. 61-70, 1999. Khaled Assaleh and Ayman El-Hag, Estimating Transformer Oil Parameters Using Polynomial Networks, paper presented at the International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, Beijing, China, April 21-24, 2008. NYNAS, Transformer oil handbook, June 2004.

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