Ao

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Poblacin

13.7
13.9
14.0
14.2
14.3
14.5
14.6
14.8
15.0
15.1
15.3
15.5
15.6
15.8
16.0
16.1
16.3
16.5
16.7
16.9
17.1
17.2
17.5

Precio
Demanda (miles
Nominal (s/.
de juegos)
Juegos)

439.0
446.1
451.7
458.9
474.6
491.6
500.8
512.5
522.9
536.8
549.1
561.8
574.7
587.9
601.4
615.3
629.4

46.6
48.4
50.2
52.0
53.8
55.6
57.4
59.2
61.0
62.8
64.9
67.1
69.4
71.8
74.2
76.8
79.4

Precios
Reales (s/.
Juegos)

IPC
1.00
1.04
1.09
1.14
1.19
1.24
1.29
1.35
1.41
1.47
1.54
1.61
1.68
1.75
1.83
1.91
1.99
2.08
2.17
2.27
2.37
2.47
2.58
2.69
2.81
2.93
3.06
3.20
3.30
3.43
3.57

25.50
25.37
25.21
25.01
24.78
24.53
24.26
23.97
23.65
23.33
23.10
22.88
22.66
22.45
22.49
22.36
22.23

X
Ao
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Poblacin
16.14
16.32
16.50
16.68
16.87
17.05

Demanda (miles
de juegos)
536.80
549.15
561.78
574.70
587.92
601.44

Precio
Nominal (s/.
Juegos)
62.80
64.94
67.14
69.43
71.79
74.23

IPC
2.69
2.81
2.93
3.06
3.20
3.30

Precios
Reales (s/.
Juegos)
23.33
23.10
22.88
22.66
22.45
22.49

2011
2012
TOTALES

17.24
17.50
134.30

615.27
629.42
4656.47

76.75
79.36
566.43

3.43
3.57
25.00

MINIMOS CUADRADOS ORDINARIOS

b=

-6306.760784
24715.48328

b=

-0.255174488

Promedio Y =
Promedio X =

a=

22.69
34.65

31.5301576

Comportamiento de la Demanda por MCO es Y = 31.5301576 - (-0.255174488)x

22.36
22.23
181.51

Consumo per
capita

30.01
30.16
30.21
30.36
31.05
31.81
32.06
32.45
32.75
33.25
33.65
34.05
34.45
34.86
35.27
35.69
35.97

Y
Consumo per
capita
33.25
33.65
34.05
34.45
34.86
35.27

XY
775.66
777.35
779.04
780.74
782.44
793.41

X2
544.12
533.75
523.57
513.59
503.80
505.94

35.69
35.97
277.19

798.19
799.70
6286.53

500.12
494.36
4119.25

Ao

Precio
Nominal (S/.
x par)

Consumo
(miles de
pares)

IPC

111.17

98,121

119.21

100,990

1.1

140.65

103,118

1.23

162.46

105,388

1.33

186.85

109,352

1.46

221.13

111,363

1.61

239.89

114,022

1.77

245.62

115,999

1.94

256.09

116,856

2.14

10

264.33

119,999

2.36

POBLACION

Precio Real

2,612
2,677
2,744
2,813
2,883
2,955
3,029
3,105
3,182
3,262

111.17
108.37
114.35
122.15
127.98
137.35
135.53
126.61
119.67
112.00

Demanda de Corto Plazo

160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00

0.00
37.57

37.72

37.58

37.47

37.93

37.68

37.64

37.36

Demanda de Largo Plazo

140,000
120,000
100,000

80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000

36.72

36.79

20,000
0
1

10

Demanda Per
Capita
37.57
37.72
37.58
37.47
37.93
37.68
37.64
37.36
36.72
36.79

Consumo
(miles de
pares)
98,121
100,990
103,118
105,388
109,352
111,363
114,022
115,999
116,856
119,999

Q2

Q3

99,556
102,054
104,253
107,370
110,358
112,693
115,011
116,428
118,428

100,743
103,165
105,953
108,701
111,579
113,795
115,626
117,618

Tasa de Crecimiento Geometrica

119,999 = 98,121 (1 + g)9
g=0.0226

Ao

Consumo
(miles de
pares)

98,121

100,339
102,606
104,925
107,296
109,721
112,201
114,737
117,330
119,981

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

MINIMOS CUADRADOS ORDINARIOS

Precio Real
(X)
111.17
108.37
114.35
122.15
127.98
137.35
135.53
126.61
119.67

Demanda pc
(Y)
37.57
37.72
37.58
37.47
37.93
37.68
37.64
37.36
36.72

XY
4176.15
4087.91
4296.83
4576.58
4853.98
5175.71
5101.66
4730.16
4394.06

112.00
1215.18

TOTALES

36.79
374.45

4120.26
45513.30

b = -45403.0071
1188855.04
b = -0.03819053
Promedio Y =
Promedio X =
a=

37.4448294
121.518176
42.0856733

Comportamiento de la Demanda por MCO es Y = 42.085673 - (-0.0381905)X

Q4

Q5

101,904
104,712
107,305
110,031
112,684
114,560
116,719

103,394
106,042
108,649
111,225
113,518
115,648

Tasa de Crecimiento Aritmetica

119,999 = 98,121 + 9 r
r = 2430.9

Ao

Consumo
(miles de
pares)

98,121

102,983
105,414
107,845
110,276
112,706
115,137
117,568
119,999
122,430

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

X2
12358.77
11744.65
13075.83
14920.71
16378.74
18864.43
18368.67
16029.65
14320.48

12544.95
148606.88

MCO es Y = 42.085673 - (-0.0381905)X

Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

TOTALES

POBLACION Poblacion entre Poblacin en Poblacin en

TOTAL
8 y 17 aos
riesgo social abandono
99,000
101,970
105,029
108,180
111,425
114,768
118,211
121,758
125,410
129,173
1,134,924

34,650
35,690
36,760
37,863
38,999
40,169
41,374
42,615
43,894
45,210
397,223

10,395
10,921
11,474
12,054
12,664
13,305
13,978
14,685
15,428
16,209
131,114

2,079
2,184
2,295
2,411
2,533
2,661
2,796
2,937
3,086
3,242
26,223

Poblacin
Potencial
1,455
1,529
1,606
1,688
1,773
1,863
1,957
2,056
2,160
2,269
18,356

La capacidad de Oferta es Cero, porque lo que se busca es implementar un centro juvenil, osea en este momen

CONCLUSION:
Requerimiento promedio para la rehabilitacin de e
semanales de 3 horas diarias durante 3 aos. Osea q

Demanda
individual
(horas)
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
7,200

Demanda
Total (horas)
1047816
1100835.49
1156537.77
1215058.58
1276540.54
1341133.49
1408994.85
1480289.99
1555192.66
1633885.41
13,216,285

BRECHA (DEM - OFER

)

OFERTA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1047816
1100835.49
1156537.765
1215058.576
1276540.54
1341133.492
1408994.846
1480289.985
1555192.659
1633885.407
13216284.76

entro juvenil, osea en este momento no esta funcionando.

rehabilitacin de estos chicos es de 5 sesiones

ante 3 aos. Osea que por persona al ao tendria que

Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

POBLACION
TOTAL
4,000,000
4,042,800
4,086,058
4,129,779
4,173,967
4,218,629
4,263,768
4,309,391
4,355,501
4,402,105

Poblacion
consume
queso
2,000,000
2,021,400
2,043,029
2,064,889
2,086,984
2,109,314
2,131,884
2,154,695
2,177,750
2,201,052

Tasa de crecimiento de la poblacin =

Produccin =
Leche 40% =
Derivados 60%=

132,000.00
52,800.00
79,200.00

Consumo Per
capita (en
Kg.)
158
159
160
161
162
164
165
166
167
168

1.07%

Demanda
Total

Leche HL

316,000,000
321,616,868
327,333,576
333,151,898
339,073,639
345,100,639
351,234,769
357,477,932
363,832,066
370,299,145

132,000
133,676
135,374
137,093
138,834
140,598
142,383
144,191
146,023
147,840

Leche Fresca
52,800.00
52,324.80
51,853.88
51,387.19
50,924.71
50,466.38
50,012.19
49,562.08
49,116.02
48,673.97

Leche
Leche p/queso Hl
p/queso 60%
79,200
81,352
83,520
85,706
87,910
90,131
92,371
94,629
96,907
99,166

10,454,400,000
10,874,789,022
11,306,472,920
11,749,742,374
12,204,895,502
12,672,238,049
13,152,083,584
13,644,753,697
14,150,578,205
14,660,705,166

Rendimiento
Lt/kg

Produccion de
Quesos

10.00
9.83
9.66
9.50
9.33
9.16
9.00
8.83
8.68
8.50

1,045,440,000
1,106,285,760
1,170,092,273
1,236,814,987
1,308,274,788
1,383,269,311
1,461,963,371
1,544,529,274
1,631,147,150
1,724,788,843

x
Aos
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Precios
Nominales
Unitarios
17.21
18.32
20.35
21.96
23.05
25.98
28.19
30.02
32.95
35.73

Demanda
Total (mill
de unid.)
119.3
118.7
117.2
109.6
101.1
109.3
106.3
102.2
101.9
102.5

Poblacion

IPC

Precios Reales

6,279,089
6,355,353
6,432,544
6,510,672
6,589,749
6,668,826
6,748,852
6,829,838
6,911,796
6,994,738

1.48
1.54
1.60
1.67
1.73
1.80
1.87
1.95
2.03
2.11

11.62645935
11.90032267
12.71054996
13.18860693
13.31080066
14.42577178
15.05087147
15.41146484
16.26504659
16.95897381

y
Demanda per capita

y = log Q

x = log P

AO

IPC

0.000019
0.000019
0.000018
0.000017
0.000015
0.000016
0.000016
0.000015
0.000015
0.000015

-4.721256
-4.728689
-4.739455
-4.773815
-4.814118
-4.785429
-4.802697
-4.824960
-4.831417
-4.834048

1.065447
1.075559
1.104164
1.120199
1.124204
1.159139
1.177562
1.187844
1.211255
1.229400

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

1
1.04
1.0816
1.124864
1.16985856
1.2166529
1.26531902
1.31593178
1.36856905
1.42331181
1.48024428
1.53945406

2005

1.60103222

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

1.66507351
1.73167645
1.80094351
1.87298125
1.9479005
2.02581652
2.10684918