new stores
2 year stores
setablished stores
Sales per new st
Sales per 2 year st
Sales per established store
Sales
in thousands
2011
35
40
564
2012
35
35
604
2013
35
35
639
1800
2000
2200
1,383,800 $
1924
2137
2351
1,562,112 $
EBIT
163,288.40 $
184,329 $
207,354
D&A
25,844.65 $
29,174.91 $
32,819.21
Capex
20,354.23 $
22,977.02 $
25,847.13
NOPAT=EBIT*(1-T)
NOWC
Change in NOWC
FCFF
$
$
$
$
106,137
205,503
23,502.56
88,125
83,026 $
#REF!
34,000
#REF!
475,000
#REF!
72,700.00
#REF!
Terminal Value
PV(FCFF)
Enterprise Value
Value of Non Operating Assents =
Firm Value
Debt
Equity Value
Shares
Intrinsic Value per Share
Over/Undervalued
$
$
$
$
$
$
119,814
231,983
26,480
99,531
2056
2284
2512
1,757,239
$
$
$
$
134,780
260,961
28,977
112,775
88,347 $
94,310
Number of stores
2007
463
2008
521
58
888
588
156
972
641
188
2009
564
43
Sales
Cost of Sales
G&A (Incl. Store Operating Expenses)
1,089
717
222
14
129
18
125
22
128
48
6
166
16
36
120
26
3
199
22
43
137
17
66
3
250
40
38
175
38
85
848
112
845
24
42
679
(141)
130
843
16
38
822
143
820
Shares (millions)
42.2
8.4
2.3
19.7
72.7
%
58.0%
11.6%
3.2%
27.1%
100.0%
2014
35
35
674
2197
2441
2685
1,971,790 $
232,671 $
36,826.29 $
29,002.94 $
151,236
292,823
31,862
127,198
$
$
$
$
100,216 $
1,265
832
266
6.14%
2.50%
2,359,196
EBITDA 2015
EV
2010 Est
604
40
40
5%
6.8169%
79.17%
20.83%
5.5%
WACC
$
$
$
$
3.34%
6.86%
11.80%
35%
1.58%
$ 301,715.16
$ 2,176,939.65
1.85%
2.47%
14.09%
2.02%
1.47%
16.07%
#DIV/0!
26
141
38
3
256
25
52
182
7
137
842
6
32
455
(367)
average
2.02%
0.47%
14.39%
0.00%
1.87%
1.47%
14.85%
Corporate/Franchise
Corporate
Franchise/Corporate
Franchise
Franchise
Franchise
Corporate
Franchise
Franchise
# of Stores
594
135
104
79
70
65
40
20
Price point
$1 - $2
Up to $2
Up to $15
$1, $1.50, $2
$1
$1.25
$1
$1 - $3
Total stores
Average store size (selling + nonselling)
Price point range
SKU count
Offshore sourcing
Private label
Consumables mix
Sales/selling sq ft
EBIT margin
Inv./gross sq. ft.
Inventory Days
SALES
COGS
EBIT = Average CM*Sales
NOPAT
Dollarama
594
9,700
$1 - $2
4,400
52%
52%
37%
$251
11.8%
$44
112
Dollar Tree
3,591
10,654
$1 or less
5,000
43%
10%
49%
$158
7.9%
$18
2010
1265
2011
1351.807568
149.27
$97
106.7927979
$69
93
99 Cents Only
279
21,125
$0.99
NA
NA
Yes
56%
$273
1.8%
$25
Family Dollar
6,655
8,325
$10 or less
NA
46%
19%
64%
$153
6.2%
$19
Freds
639
18,400
Multi
12,000
NA
7%
47%
$184
1.5%
$27
Big Lots
1,339
29,789
Multi
20,000
27%
NA
30%
$160
5.5%
$19
Dollar General
8,362
7,017
$10 or less
10,500
50%
21%
69%
$180
5.6%
$26
76
76
101
124
71
2012
1444.572096
2013
1543.702366
2014
1649.635211
26.00229773
$17
95.70954669
$62
24.74452816
$16
5.8%
Confidential
Exhibit 4: Data on Selected Publicly-Traded Retailers ($ millions)
Company
Dollarama (C$)
Market Value
of Equity
1,676
Debt
Cash & ST
Investments
Net Debt
475
34
441
Enterprise
Value=MV(Eq
uity)+Net
Debt
Last 12
Months
EBITDA
Last 12
Months
Revenue
EV/EBITDA
2,117
158
1,204
13.40
717
91
1,337
7.88
4,630
6.71
845
0.6
128
2,377
1.0
46
-44.907
2,332
348
7,949
4,138
517
3620.714
11,570
1,086
11,127
10.65
4,317
272
342
-70.2
4,247
619
5,059
6.86
3,914
250
445
-194.691
3,719
617
7,401
6.03
367
39
-33.605
334
65
1,784
5.17
Fred's (US$)
-127.68
471
average
7.22
median
6.78
6.53
Enterprise Value
Shares
1,140
73
Page 10
Confidential
Value/Sales
Debt Ratio
Last 12
5-yr Equity
Months
Beta vs.
Gross Margin World Equity
(%)
Mkt Portfolio
W eq
D/E
Unlevered Beta
34%
NA
0.28
(0.177954)
1.177954
0.529
40%
0.45
0.00
0.45
0.50 -0.01925995
1.019260
1.127
40%
1.11
0.00
1.11
1.04 0.312938819
0.687061
30%
NA
0.52
0.84
-0.0165305
1.016531
0.525
35%
0.52
0.06
0.50
0.50 -0.05234456
1.052345
0.361
35%
0.34
0.06
0.33
0.19 -0.10069519
1.100695
0.935
28%
0.85
0.01
0.84
0.695
average
0.65
average Beta
0.64
0.54
0.60
unlevered beta
Page 11
Confidential
d Beta
Page 12
Size
2x120g
1
354ml
1
4
6.5
350g
20
4
Price
$4.99
$5.99
$7.49
$14.99
$7.99
$17.99
$6.49
$4.99
$8.99
Price Adjusted
to Dollaramas
Size
$2.08
$5.99
$7.41
$14.99
$7.99
$17.99
$3.71
$2.50
$2.25
$64.90
Dollarama
Size
100g
1
350ml
1
4
9.5
200g
10
1
Dollarama
Savings
Price
$1.00
$1.00
$1.00
$1.00
$1.00
$2.00
$1.25
$1.00
$1.00
$10.25
$
$1.07
$4.99
$6.41
$13.99
$6.99
$15.99
$2.46
$1.50
$1.25
$54.65
%
52%
83%
86%
93%
87%
89%
66%
60%
56%
84%
Canadian
Real GDP
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 (Sep)
1.8%
1.5%
2.5%
4.4%
6.9%
3.6%
4.5%
5.0%
3.4%
9.2%
8.7%
-0.4%
7.8%
3.8%
7.4%
7.2%
3.2%
6.9%
0.7%
-2.9%
Canadian
Canadian Minimum
CPI
Wage (C$)
5.0%
3.8%
2.1%
1.7%
0.2%
1.8%
2.2%
0.8%
1.0%
2.6%
3.2%
0.7%
3.9%
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
1.6%
2.4%
1.2%
1.2%
4.0%
7.9%
3.3%
1.2%
1.5%
2.7%
3.1%
1.6%
1.5%
1.8%
1.3%
1.6%
2.4%
2.7%
1.7%
4.1%
4.6%
5.0%
5.3%
5.5%
C$/$US
1.16
1.16
1.27
1.32
1.40
1.36
1.37
1.43
1.53
1.45
1.50
1.59
1.57
1.30
1.20
1.16
1.17
1.00
1.22
1.06
West Texas
CRB
Toronto Stock
Itermediate Oil Commodities Exchange 300
Price per
Total Return Total Return
Barrel (US$)
Index (C$)
Index(C$)
28.44
19.15
19.49
14.19
17.77
19.54
25.90
17.65
12.14
25.76
26.72
19.96
31.21
32.51
43.36
61.06
60.85
95.95
39.25
75.41
5.1%
-4.4%
6.5%
10.3%
16.9%
6.0%
12.6%
8.8%
-15.0%
-3.5%
18.4%
-12.0%
17.0%
-8.2%
4.3%
14.8%
-2.6%
4.5%
-20.7%
4.9%
-14.8%
12.0%
-1.4%
32.5%
-0.2%
14.5%
28.3%
15.0%
-1.6%
31.7%
7.4%
-12.6%
-12.4%
26.7%
14.5%
24.1%
17.3%
9.8%
-33.0%
33.4%
Average Nominal GDP Growth
Yield
0.13%
6-months
0.25%
1 Year
0.53%
2 Years
1.22%
3 Years
1.68%
5 Years
2.49%
10 Years
3.34%
15 Years
3.84%
20 Years
4.08%
30 Years
3.98%
Source: Bloomberg
Sources:
Debt
Equity
Total Sources
Amount
EBITDA Multiple
UITY CALCULATION
rf - . Pe + e
3.34%
?
5.00%
0.0%
#VALUE!
Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Sales:
COGS
Rent
Transportation
Supply Chain Cost
Total Cost of Sales
EBIT
NOPAT
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1265
1353.55 1422.175 1466.831 1484.433
EBIT CM
Average CM
2007
14.53%
12.58%
2008
12.86%
2009
11.75%
2010
11.18%